Terrorism
Al Qaeda is collapsing now- no leadership or recruitment
Said 9/21/11 (Analysis by Rajeh Said for Magharebia in London – 21/09/11, Recent losses in ranks weaken al-Qaeda's capabilities http://www.magharebia.com/cocoon/awi/xhtml1/en_GB/features/awi/features/2011/09/21/feature-02)
Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri is dealing … that no one listens to or has any interest in joining.
No nuclear terrorism
Mueller ‘10 (John, Woody Hayes Chair of National Security Studies at the Mershon Center for International Security Studies and a Professor of Political Science at The Ohio State University, A.B. from the University of Chicago, M.A. and Ph.D. @ UCLA, Atomic Obsession – Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al-Qaeda, Oxford University Press, Accessed @ Emory)
LIKELIHOOD In his thoughtful, influential, and well-argued 2004 book… uninspiring or even terminally dispiriting. "
Public anxiety prevents retaliation
Huddy et al. 05 – Professor of political science @ Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY [Leonie Huddy, Stanley Feldman (Professor of political science @ Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY), Charles Taber (Professor of political science @ Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY) & Gallya Lahav (Professor of political science @ Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY), “Threat, Anxiety, and Support of Antiterrorism Policies,” American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 49, No. 3, July 2005, Pp. 593–608]
The findings from this study lend further insight into the future trajectory … future risks and one dominated by anxiety.
No oil shocks – newest research.
Kahn 11 [Jeremy Kahn, Boston Globe, Crude reality Will a Middle Eastern oil disruption crush the economy? New research suggests the answer is no -- and that a major tenet of American foreign policy may be fundamentally wrong. By February 13, 2011 http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2011/02/13/crude_reality/]
Economists have a term for this disruption: an oil shock… When oil runs short, in other words, the market is usually adept at filling the gap.
No transition wars.
D. Scott Bennett and Timothy Nordstrom, February 2k. Department of Political Science Professors at Pennsylvania State. “Foreign Policy Substitutability and Internal Economic Problems in Enduring Rivalries,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Ebsco.
In this analysis, we focus on using economic … research design that can account for substitutability between them.
Bio-D doesn’t matter
Sagoff, ‘97
[Mark, Senior Research Scholar @ Institute for Philosophy and Public policy in School of Public Affairs @ U. Maryland, William and Mary Law Review, “INSTITUTE OF BILL OF RIGHTS LAW SYMPOSIUM DEFINING TAKINGS: PRIVATE PROPERTY AND THE FUTURE OF GOVERNMENT REGULATION: MUDDLE OR MUDDLE THROUGH? TAKINGS JURISPRUDENCE MEETS THE ENDANGERED SPECIES ACT”, 38 Wm and Mary L. Rev. 825, March, L/N]
Although one may agree with ecologists such as Ehrlich and Raven that … The most valuable things are quite useless.
Instability
No Saudi/Iran war
Kaye 10—Senior political scientist, RAND. CFR member and former prof at George Wash. PhD in pol sci from UC Berkeley—AND—Frederic Wehrey—Senior analyst at RAND. Former Georgetown prof. D.Phil. candidate in IR, Oxford. Master’s in near Eastern studies, Princeton—AND—Jeffrey Martini—Middle East research project associate at RAND. Master’s in Arab studies at Georgetown (Dalia Dassa, The Iraq Effect, Report Prepared for the Air Force, http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2010/RAND_MG892.pdf)
The result is that Iran’s Arab neighbors, particularly the smaller GCC … anti-Iranian stance among Iran’s neighbors face.
No Saudi collapse—military and police will crush protests
Jones 2011 – assistant professor of history at Rutgers University (8/24, Toby, The Nation, “Saudi Arabia’s regional reaction”, http://www.thenation.com/article/162962/saudi-arabias-regional-reaction, WEA)
But oil, Islam and patronage do not fully explain the caution of Saudi Arabia’s subjects…has closed off any possibility of public assembly.
