The United States federal government should substantially increase support to strengthen capacity for Syrian political opposition groups.
ADVANTAGE ONE -- IRAN
US inaction alienates the opposition.
Hamid, ‘11
[Shadi, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center and a fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. “President Obama's Syria Problem,” 7-13, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/07/president-obamas-syria-problem/241861/]
After regime thugs attacked …still become our friends.
And, it allows Iran to maintain influence post-transition -- only active engagement maintains heg.
Doran, 12-13-11
[Michael, Roger Hertog Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy -- The Brookings Institution, “United States Policy in Syria: Masterful Inaction?” http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/1213_syria_doran.aspx]
If so, then why doesn’t …t is unlikely to win.
Assistance is key -- guarantees US leverage and collapses Iran-Syria cooperation.
Boot, 12-5-11
[Max, Jeane J. Kirkpatrick Senior Fellow for National Security Studies, “Assad Must Go,” http://www.cfr.org/syria/assad-must-go/p26706]
The West could … action is necessary.
The aff reverses any residual anti-Americanism.
Tobin, ‘11
[Jonathan S., Senior Online Editor of Commentary magazine, chief politics blogger, former editor in chief of the Jewish Exponent in Philadelphia, columns have regularly appeared in the Jerusalem Post and many other newspapers, over the course of his career, he has won more than 50 journalism awards for commentary, editorial writing, and arts criticism, named both the best editorial columnist and the best arts critic in Philadelphia by the Society of Professional Journalists, has lectured on campuses and to organizations around the country and has appeared on CNN, FOX News Channel, the FOX Business Channel, the BBC, and numerous other media outlets “U.S. Support Doesn’t Taint Syrian Protests,” 7-8, http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/07/08/american-support-doesn%E2%80%99t-taint-syrian-protests/]
U.S. Ambassador Robert S. Ford …. will now know they are not alone.
Syria’s vital to Iranian hegemony -- loss of support collapses Iranian maneuverability and influence.
Behravesh, ‘11
[Maysam, journalist and political commentator, E-International Relation’s Iranian Studies & Research News Editor, MA in British Studies from the Faculty of World Studies, University of Tehran, “Revolt In Syria: An Alternative View From Iran – OpEd,” 10-2, http://www.eurasiareview.com/02102011-revolt-in-syria-an-alternative-view-from-iran-oped/]
Lastly, and perhaps most …threatened than ever from outside.
Unchecked Iran guarantees nuclear miscalculation.
Ben-Meir, ‘6
[Alon, Professor of international relations @ Center for Global Affair, New York University, “Ending Iranian Defiance,” New York (UPI) Feb 06, 2007, pg. http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Ending_Iranian_Defiance_999.html]
That Iran stands today …not halting its nuclear program.
Iranian influence destroys US control of the Persian Gulf -- devastates hegemony.
O’Donnell, ‘9
[Thomas, Universidad Central de Venezuela, Centro de Estudios del Desarrollo (UCV-CENDES), Caracas “The Political Economy of Oil in the U.S.‐Iran Crisis: U.S. globalized oil interests vs. Iranian regional interests,” October, http://www.gpia.info/files/u16/O_Donnell_2009-05.pdf]
Each of these components … U.S.-Iran confrontation must be analyzed.
Global nuclear wars.
Kagan, ‘7
[Robert, Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “End of Dreams, Return of History” Policy Review, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/8552512.html#n10]
This is a good thing, and it should continue to …. a retraction of American influence and global involvement will provide an easier path.
Supporting the opposition ends Iranian hegemony peacefully.
Alhomayed, 6-24-11
[Tariq, editor in chief of Asharq Al Awsat, London, “Curbing Iranian influence without conflict,” http://english.alarabiya.net/views/2011/06/24/154651.html]
Thus we could assume today, … That is the question!
1AC – Civil War
ADVANTAGE TWO -- CIVIL WAR
It’s coming -- violence is escalating and current international efforts are failing.
Shadid, 1-14-12
[Anthony, Beirut bureau chief for The New York Times, “Fear of Civil War Mounts in Syria as Crisis Deepens,” http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/15/world/middleeast/syria-in-deep-crisis-may-be-slipping-out-of-control.html?src=recg]
BEIRUT, Lebanon — The failure of an …. shape in the region in 15 years.”
Sectarian tensions are escalating – current international efforts are futile and fuel contagion of unchecked instability – spills over into the broader Middle East.
Bremmer 2/8/12 (Ian, president of Eurasia Group, professor at Columbia. “Syria emerges as nexus of the regional power struggle.” Foreign Policy, http://eurasia.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/02/08/syria_emerges_as_a_nexus_of_regional_power_struggle.)
Recent, though futile, efforts …environment and oil flows.
Regime collapse is inevitable -- the longer Assad stays in power, the more likely it is that violence escalates.
Ross, 12-21-11
[Dennis, ambassador, counselor at The Washington Institute, previously served as special assistant to President Obama and senior director for the central region at the National Security Council, “Why Syria's Regime Is Doomed,” http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC07.php?CID=622]
Amid mounting violence … it increasingly difficult to minimize the violence within Syria.
Democracy assistance stabilizes the transition and prevents sectarian escalation.
Doran & Shaikh, ‘11
[Michael S., senior fellow in the Saban Center, Brookings Institution, Salman, director of the Brookings Doha Center and fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, “Getting Serious in Syria,” August, http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1001]
The Arab Spring threatens ….process of transition to begin.
Syrian instability goes global -- lack of US involvement creates a power vacuum that guarantees great power escalation.
Apps, 11-30-11
[Peter, Political Risk Correspondent -- Reuters, “Analysis: Syrian civil war drags in Mideast, global powers,” http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/30/us-syria-powers-idUSTRE7AT25320111130]
(Reuters) - As Syria's uprising escalates into … abhors vacuums and so do rising great powers."
Extinction.
Hellman, ‘8
[Martin, professor of electrical engineering -- Stanford University, renowned mathematician who has worked for over 25 years during nuclear war risk assessment, “Soaring, cryptography and nuclear weapons,” Asia Times, Oct 23, 2008, pg. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/JJ23Aa01.html]
A similar situation exists with nuclear weapons. Many people point to the absence of global war since the dawn of the nuclear era as proof that these weapons ensure peace. The MX missile was even christened the Peacekeeper. Just as the laws of physics are used to ensure that a pilot executing a low pass will gain enough altitude to make a safe landing, a law of nuclear deterrence is invoked to quiet any concern over possibly killing billions of innocent people… some other hot spot where we are ignoring the warning signs.
Sustained unrest risks CBW theft and draws in Israel.
Sharpe, ‘11
[Jeremy, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, Congressional Research Service, 4-28, “Syria: Issues for the 112th Congress and Background on U.S. Sanctions,” http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33487.pdf]
Foreign observers …iot control equipment.”14
CBWs go global quickly.
Corsi, ‘7
[Jerome, “Syria ready with bio-terror if U.S. hits Iran,” WorldNetDaily.com, March 5, 2007, WorldNetDaily, http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=54542]
**cites Dr. Jill Dekker, director of the Public Health Preparedness program for the European Homeland Security Association under the French High Committee for Civil Defense, a consultant to the NATO Defense Establishment in bio-warfare and counter terrorism, member of the board of advisors of the Intelligence Summit
When asked how Syria … on what the weapon looks like."
Extinction.
Singer, ‘1
[Clifford E., Director of the Program in Arms Control, Disarmament, and International Security at the University of Illinois at Urbana—Champaign, (Professor of nuclear engineering @ University of Illinois at Urbana—Champaign), “Will Mankind Survive the Millennium?,” The Bulletin of the Program in Arms Control, Disarmament, and International Security, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Volume XIII / Number 1 / Spring 2001 pg. http://www.acdis.uiuc.edu/research/S&Ps/2001-Sp/S&P_XIII/Singer.htm]
In recent years the fear … family may be in question when and if this is achieved.
*Israeli escalation is guaranteed.
Romirowsky, ‘11
[Asaf, Philadelphia-based Middle East analyst, an adjunct scholar at the Middle East Forum, 8-31, “Obama’s words aren’t enough,” http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4115917,00.html]
The ongoing turmoil ….will hardly be enough.
*Nuclear winter.
Morgan, ‘9
[Dennis Ray, Professor of Current Affairs @ Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, South Korea, “World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race”, Futures, Volume 41, Issue 10, December 2009, Pages 683-693, ScienceDirect]
In a remarkable website …environment and fragile ecosphere as well.
The plan is key to reassuring minorities -- prevents sectarian war.
Abrams, ‘11
[Elliott, Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, CFR, 8-2, “Preventing Civil War in Syria,” http://www.cfr.org/syria/preventing-civil-war-syria]
Finally, the U.S. should … the post-Assad era that is coming.
*That’s speeds up Assad’s collapse.
De Mesquita & Smith, 12-20-11
[Bruce, Alastair, both professors of politics and director and co-director, respectively, of the Alexander Hamilton Center for Political Economy at New York University, “Assessing Assad: The Syrian leader isn't crazy. He's just doing whatever it takes to survive.” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/12/20/is_assad_crazy_or_just_ruthless?page=full]
Following the logic we set ….of well over 70 million.
Capacity building organizes the opposition -- creates a credible alternative to Assad.
Maalouf & Torbey, 12-16-11
[Marwan, human rights lawyer focusing on the rule of law and political reforms in the Middle East and North Africa, from 2008 until 2011, Marwan oversaw programs on human rights and democracy promotion in the Arab world for Freedom House, Khattar, international lawyer and PhD candidate in Regional Integration in the Middle East at Kansas University, has over 15 years of expertise in the fields of Middle East media, law, and politics, POMED, “Breaking the Stalemate in Syria,” http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/POMED-Policy-Brief_Maalouf.pdf]
The situation in … important role in building the SNC’S organizational capacity.
