MB
Egypt-Israel war unlikely
Lachman 11 (Sol Lachman, Political Commentator “Why a new Israeli-Egyptian War isn’t likely”, http://thejewishreporter.com/2011/05/11/why-a-new-israeli-egyptian-war-isnt-likely/)
The polls notwithstanding, hating Israel doesn’t make Egypt any …, but it’s not springtime for Peace in the Middle East.
War doesn’t escalate
Ferguson 6—Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History @ Harvard—(Niall “This might not be a world war, but it still needs a sense of urgency” July 23rd 2006, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/3626545/This-might-not-be-a-world-war%2C-but-it-still-needs-a-sense-of-urgency.html)
Such language can -- for now, at least -- safely be dismissed as hyperbole. This crisis is not going to trigger another world war. … could be finished in a matter of days. That, at any rate, is clearly the assumption
The US has changed policy to engage the Brotherhood already—your authors just aren’t in the know
Satloff 6/30/11, executive director and Howard P. Berkowitz Chair in U.S. Middle East Policy at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy; D.Phil., St. Antony's College, University of Oxford; M.A., Harvard University (Robert, Egypt, U.S. Strategy, and Engaging the Muslim Brotherhood, Policy Alert, Washington Institute, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1662)
Secretary of State Clinton confirmed today that the Obama … direct engagement with MB officials, though they were not advertising the shift.
Brown 8/9/11, Carnegie Scholar and Senior Associate - Middle East Program - Carnegie Endowment, professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University (Nathan J, What Does the U.S. Want to Talk to the Brotherhood About? National Interest, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=45312&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CarnegieEndowmentForInternationalPeaceGeneralPublicationsAndEvents+%28DC+-+General+Publications+and+Events%29)
What explains the awkwardness on the part of U.S. officials (reciprocated by an equally …military rulers have arisen in political analysis in the United States over the years.)
3. The Brotherhood is acting moderate now because they are vulnerable—once they take power they will reassert their own agenda
Hamid ’11, Director of Research at the Brookings Doha Center and a Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution (Shadi, The Rise of the Islamists, Foreign Affairs, May/June 2011, Vol. 90, Issue 3, ebsco)
During the uprisings, the protesters have sensed that U.S. pressure ..in the region, for people will no longer remain submissive to its dictates."
4. Brotherhood moderation includes resistance against the US and Israel and support for violence in Afghanistan/Balkans/Chechnya/Iraq
Trager ’11 (Sept/Oct), Ira Weiner Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and Ph.D. candidate at the University of Pennsylvania (Eric, The Unbreakable Muslim Brotherhood, Grim Prospects for a Democratic Egypt, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 90, Issue 5, ebsco)
WASHINGTON SHOULD view the recent rise of the Muslim Brotherhood … unjust and referred to the al Qaeda leader with the honorific "sheik."
Terrorism
Al Qaeda is collapsing now- no leadership or recruitment
Said 9/21/11 (Analysis by Rajeh Said for Magharebia in London – 21/09/11, Recent losses in ranks weaken al-Qaeda's capabilities http://www.magharebia.com/cocoon/awi/xhtml1/en_GB/features/awi/features/2011/09/21/feature-02)
Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri is dealing with a depleted …organisation that no one listens to or has any interest in joining.
The risk of nuclear terrorism is small
Mueller ‘10 (John, Woody Hayes Chair of National Security Studies at the Mershon Center for International Security Studies and a Professor of Political Science at The Ohio State University, A.B. from the University of Chicago, M.A. and Ph.D. @ UCLA, Atomic Obsession – Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al-Qaeda, Oxford University Press, Accessed @ Emory)
LIKELIHOOD In his thoughtful, influential, and well-argued 2004 book, Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe—…to find the prospects daunting and accordingly uninspiring or even terminally dispiriting. "
Egypt is only a tiny part of US CT – threats elsewhere are greater
Scheuer, their author, 8/24/11 - Adjunct Professor of Security Studies, Georgetown University (Michael, “The Zawahiri Era,” The National Interest, September/October, http://nationalinterest.org/article/zawahiri-era-5732)
For all the Obama-administration rhetoric to the contrary, bin Laden’s creation of …especially in the United States, Britain, Canada, Australia, South Africa and India.
Obama won’t retaliate --- he knows the costs.
Crowley ‘10 (Michael, Senior Editor the New Republic, “Obama and Nuclear Deterrence”, http://www.tnr.com/node/72263)
Others argue that the United States should promise that it …for that matter--would go through with it.
Al Qaeda doesn’t have leverage in Egypt—Islamists aren’t with them and the AQ leadership doesn’t want to risk alienation
McCants ’11 (Sept/Oct), research analyst at the Center for Strategic Studies at CNA and adjunct faculty at Johns Hopkins University, formerly: Senior Adviser for Countering Violent Extremism at the U.S. Department of State, program manager of the Minerva Initiative at the Department of Defense, and fellow at West Point’s Combating Terrorism Center, PhD from Princeton University (William, Al Qaeda’s Challenge, The Jihadists’ War With Islamist Democrats, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 90, Issue 5, ebsco)
Yet Zawahiri's attempt to sway local Islamists is unlikely to succeed. Although some Islamists in the two countries rhetorically support al Qaeda, many, especially the Muslim Brotherhood, are now organizing for their countries' upcoming elections--that is, they are becoming Islamist parliamentarians. Even Egyptian Salafists, who share Zawahiri's distaste for parliamentary politics, are forming their own political parties. Most ominous for Zawahiri's agenda, the Egyptian Islamist organization al-Gama'a al-Islamiyya (the Islamic Group), parts of which were once allied with al Qaeda, has forsworn violence and recently announced that it was creating a political party to compete in Egypt's parliamentary elections. Al Qaeda, then, is losing sway even among its natural allies.
This dynamic limits Zawahiri's options. For fear of alienating the …continue urging the Islamists to advocate for sharia and to try to limit U.S. influence.
Leadership
Egypt will say no --- jacks credibility and eviscerates a successful democratic transition.
Cook 11 (Steven A., Hasib J. Sabbagh senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, America Shouldn't Hijack Egypt's Revolution, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/03/09/america_shouldnt_hijack_egypts_revolution)
Let's face it: Hosni Mubarak was a strategic asset to the United States. …Egyptians the opportunity to triumph or fail on their own.
Palestine overwhelms their cred solvency
Harris-gershone, September 12th [David Harris-Gershon – a blogger for Tikkun magazine and a freelance writer on Israel, the Middle East and America’s role in the region – has recently published work in The Jerusalem Post, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, AlterNet, Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Colorado Review and elsewhere. His memoir, Shrapnel, is currently seeking publication. He received his MFA from the University of North Carolina, Wilmington, and has worked extensively as an educator, teaching creative writing and Israeli History / Jewish Studies in university and high school classrooms. Two of Obama’s Major Foreign Policy Goals Are About to Collide, http://davidehg.wordpress.com/]
Next week, President Obama will travel to the UN General Assembly knowing that his … history may not look kindly upon what is about to transpire.
Nuclear primacy sustains US hegemony.
Craig 09 – Professor of International Relations at the University of Southampton, where he teaches nuclear history, U.S. foreign policy, and international political theory (Campbell. “American power preponderance and the nuclear revolution.” Review of International Studies, 35, 27-44.) As Keir Lieber and Daryl Press have suggested, the US may… is added to this calculation, the power gap disincentive becomes overwhelming.
Heg doesn’t solve war
Fettweis 10 Professor of national security affairs @ U.S. Naval War College.
(Christopher J. Fettweis, “Threat and Anxiety in US Foreign Policy,” Survival, Volume 52, Issue 2 April 2010 , pages 59 – 82//informaworld)
One potential explanation for the growth of global peace can be dismissed fairly quickly: … to reach the conclusion that world peace and US military expenditure are unrelated.
No solvency – Tremendous hypocrisy everywhere
Newkirk 11 Anthony, contributor to Foreign Policy in Focus, professor of history at Philander Smith College, “Bahrain and Human Rights,” FPIF.org. July 22, 2011
http://www.fpif.org/articles/bahrain_and_human_rights?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+FPIF%2FMiddleEastNorthAfrica+%28FPIF+Regions%3A+Middle+East+%26+North+Africa%29&utm_content=Google+Reader
It is becoming painfully obvious that the United States is hostile to the “Arab Spring.” …missile battery but America’s dignity as a defender of justice.
Cred doesn’t do anything
Fettweis 10 [Christopher J., fifth year doctoral student in the University of Maryland's Department of Government and Politics. His primary interests include US foreign and national security policies. His dissertation, currently titled The Geopolitics of Energy and the Obsolescence of Major War, focuses on the relationship between oil and conflict. Mr. Fettweis has a BA in History from the University of Notre Dame, Threat and Anxiety in US Foreign Policy, April 2010 Survival, 52:2, 59 - 82]
For individuals as well as states, pathologies - mistaken or incorrect beliefs that inspire irrational action - … through action, usually military action, no matter how small the issue or large the odds.
No matter what the aff is, it’ll be spun negatively.
Terrill, 6-27-11
[Dr. W. Andrew, Middle East specialist, Strategic Studies Institute, “The Arab Upheavals and the Future of the U.S. Military Policies and Presence in the Middle East and the Gulf,” http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/Arab-Upheavals-and-the-Future-of-the-US-Military-Policies-and-Presence-in-the-Middle-East-and-the-Gulf/2011/6/27]
In an insightful if sardonic comment, leading Middle East military analyst Anthony … been so involved with helping the Libyans it has emerged as something of a “hero-nation.”4
Democracy assistance has no effect on perception of the US—reputation too entrenched
Carpenter ‘11, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute (Ted Galen, What should U.S. do about Egypt? Very little. The CATO Institute, www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12780)
The situation in the Middle East is vastly — and depressingly — different. Populations in that part of …have been seen as much too little, much too late.
2NC
No risk—population explosion and Palestinian de-militarization
Alawsat 11 Israel-Palestine War Expert (5/19 2011, Asharq, “Egypt, Israel and the prospects of war”, http://www.asharq-e.com/news.asp?section=2&id=25228]
Can the current temporary Egyptian leadership or the future one repeal the Camp David … fronts with Israel. This is particularly true since the balance of forces is not in Egypt's favor.
And, Brotherhood “moderation” is functionally meaningless—that’s Trager—they would still advocate violence against the US and Israel and advancing instability in Afghanistan, the Balkans, Chechnya, and Iraq—at best they would give up open jihad
Trager ’11 (Sept/Oct), Ira Weiner Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and Ph.D. candidate at the University of Pennsylvania (Eric, The Unbreakable Muslim Brotherhood, Grim Prospects for a Democratic Egypt, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 90, Issue 5, ebsco)
WASHINGTON SHOULD view the recent rise of the Muslim …unjust and referred to the al Qaeda leader with the honorific "sheik."
Say No
a) National sovereignty.
Allen 7/6 (Michael, Writer @ the Democracy Digest, Democracy assistance and the Arab Spring: solidarity vs. sovereignty?, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/07/democracy-assistance-and-the-arab-spring-solidarity-vs-sovereignty/)
But the recent announcement that USAID would re-allocate 40 percent of its … in the authoritarian regimes of Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States and Iran.
b) Stigma.
Richter 8/10 (Paul & Jeffrey Fleishman, Staff writers for the Los Angeles Times, U.S. pro-democracy effort rubs many in Egypt the wrong way, http://articles.latimes.com/print/2011/aug/10/world/la-fg-us-egypt-20110811)
Gen. Hassan Roweini, another member of the council, suggested that the April 6 …World Bank because the offers would require economic reform and transparency.
And, the UN votes is the key issue—continued perception of oppression in Palestine makes the US seem hypocritical and undermines any positive perception of the plan
AFP, sept 15 [Obama’s dilemma on Palestinian statehood http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/09/15/166947.html]
But such a step would be embarrassing for Obama after …of Israel, as political turmoil rages around its borders.
Terrorism
No escalation and low probability – your author
Ayson 10 (Robert, Centre for Strategic Studies, Victoria University of Wellington. “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects”. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7 July 2010 , pages 571 – 593. InformaWorld)
It is just possible that a terrorist nuclear attack could catalyze an inter-state … too easy, as Mueller has explained, for the discussion of catastrophic terrorism to descend into exaggeration and alarmism.
The likelihood of use is less than one in 3.5 billion.
Mueller ‘10 (John, Woody Hayes Chair of National Security Studies at the Mershon Center for International Security Studies and a Professor of Political Science at The Ohio State University, A.B. from the University of Chicago, M.A. and Ph.D. @ UCLA, Atomic Obsession – Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al-Qaeda, Oxford University Press, Accessed @ Emory)
ASSIGNING AND CALCULATING PROBABILITIES Assigning … betting just about everything on a successful outcome.
Double bind – Our Scheler and your boot evidence both say Al Qaeda in other organizations means Al Queda is decentralized. Double bind either Al Qaeda is weak or Al Queda is so widely dispered and so intent on getting nuclear weapons the plan can’t solve
Many alt causes – US counterterrorism in one country solves nothing
Khalilzad 9/9 (Zalmay, “The Next Ten Years of Al-Qaeda,” 9/9/11, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-next-ten-years-al-qaeda-5864?page=1)
Overall, the future of al-Qaeda depends on five factors:
First, U.S. counterterrorism efforts. .. of chaos and instability creating opportunities for al Qaeda.
