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1AC

Plan: The United States federal government should support the European Union Election Observation Mission for Tunisia.

Advantage 1

Advantage 1 is the alliance

The US-EU partnership is not strategic in the status quo – makes cooperation useless

Hamilton and Burwell 10 [Daniel S, Executive Director of the Center for Transatlantic Relations; Executive Director of the American Consortium on EU Studies; Austrian Marshall Plan Foundation Research Professor at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins, and Frances, Vice President, Director of the Program on Transatlantic Relations at the Atlantic Council, former executive director of the Center for International and Security Studies at the University of Maryland, "The Setting: The United States and Europe in a G20 World," Chapter 1, ]

The United States is the most important partner for the European Union. …were likened to a dentist’s visit: you knew you had to do it, but it was painful.

Coordination of democracy assistance to the Middle East is vital to retooling the alliance

Wittes and Youngs 9 [Tamara, deputy assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs at the U.S. Department of State, research fellow at the at the Brookings Institute, and Richard, director general of FRIDE, assistant professor at the University of Warwick, “Europe, the United States, and Middle Eastern Democracy: Repairing the Breach,” January, The Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, no 18, ]

As the Obama Administration assumes office, hopes are high that …a foundation from which transatlantic cooperation in the Middle East can, cautiously, be rebuilt.

Failure to change our stance towards Europe ensures they become a counterweight – accesses every impact

Stivachtis 10 – Director of International Studies Program @ Virginia Polytechnic Institute  [Dr. Yannis. A. Stivachtis (Professor of Poli Sci @ Virginia Polytechnic Institute & Ph.D. in Politics & International Relations from Lancaster University), THE IMPERATIVE FOR TRANSATLANTIC COOPERATION,” The Research Institute for European and American Studies, 2010,  pg. ]

There is no doubt that US-European relations are in a period of transition…need to act decisively against those who do not share that vision.

Cooperation on the revolutions creates cooperation on cyber security and Durban climate rounds

Castello-Catchot 11

[Carles Castello-Catchot, assistant director of the Atlantic Council’s Strategic Foresight Project, “A Transatlantic Weakness to Avoid”, New Atlanticist Policy and Analysis Blog at Atlantic Council, 9-19-2011, http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/transatlantic-weakness-avoid]

Getting back on track will be tough, highly dependent on external perceptions about our ability to do so, and will require enormous political and economic sacrifices. But if the United States and the European Union …heading towards. One decade after 9/11, the future is still ours to shape, and win.

The threat of cyber warfare is real- causes nuclear war

Fritz, 2009  [Jason, researcher for International Commission on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament, former Army officer and consultant, and has a master of international relations at Bond University, “Hacking Nuclear Command and Control,” July,  http://www.icnnd.org/latest/research/Jason_Fritz_Hacking_NC2.pdf]

This paper will analyse the threat of cyber terrorism in regard to nuclear weapons…for compromising command and control centres directly.

US-EU cooperation at Durban key to solve climate change

Hanley 11

[Charles J. Hanley, “EU hopes for climate roadmap, with US on the road”, Associated Press (reprinted at Taiwan News), 9-22-2011, http://www.taiwannews.com.tw/etn/news_content.php?id=1713899]

Europe would renew its greenhouse-gas reductions under the expiring Kyoto …them below past levels, as richer nations would do.

Only US-EU relations can solve climate change

Julianne Smith, director of the CSIS Europe Program, 2008, “The Transatlantic Climate Change Challenge” The Washington Quarterly, Winter 2007-2008, l/n

Both sides of the Atlantic appear to be moving away from their disparate steadfast /…top of the transatlantic agenda within the first 100 days in office.

Extinction

Sify 10 - Citing Ove Hoegh-Gulberg, Professor @ University of Queensland and Director of the Global Change Institute AND Citing John Bruno, Associate Professor of Marine Science @ UNC (Sify News, “Could unbridled climate changes lead to human extinction?,” June 19th, ,)

Sydney: Scientists have sounded alarm bells about how growing concentrations of greenhouse gases are driving irreversible …massive change and in some cases beginning to fail', he added.

Greater cooperation with Europe key to prevent overcommitment

Jones 11

[Erik Jones, Professor of European Studies, Johns Hopkins University SAIS Bologna Center, “European Security, Transatlantic Relations and the Challenge to US”, European Security and the Future of Transatlantic Relations, 2011, http://www.iai.it/pdf/Quaderni/iairp_01.pdf]

 The first point is one that proponents of the conventional wisdom /.. national parliaments and not just the two Houses of Congress.

Over-commitment causes pre-mature withdrawal from the world

Jones 11

[Erik Jones, Professor of European Studies, Johns Hopkins University SAIS Bologna Center, “European Security, Transatlantic Relations and the Challenge to US”, European Security and the Future of Transatlantic Relations, 2011, http://www.iai.it/pdf/Quaderni/iairp_01.pdf]

Should the United States continue to pursue its ambition to global ….codependent as well as inter-dependent. They must learn to work together if either is to achieve its goals.

That causes nuclear war

Brezinski 05

[Zbigniew was the National Security Advisor for the Carter Administration and former Professor of  Foreign Policy at Johns Hopkins University, 2005, “The Choice: Global Domination or Global Leadership”]

History is a record of change, a reminder that nothing endures …or from America’s global misuse of its own power.

Failure to find common ground in the Middle East allows countries to play the EU against the US

Amirah-Fernadez and Menedez 9 [Haizam, Seenior Analyst at the Mediterranean and Arab World Program at the Elcano Royal Institute for International and Strategic Studies and Irene, Juan March Foundation, “Reform in Comparative Perspective: US and EU Strategies of Democracy Promotion in the MENA Region after 9/11,” Journal of Contemporary European Studies, Vol. 17, No. 3, 325–338, December]

And yet, cooperation seems justified, not only because of …growing willingness to cooperate, at least at a regional level.

That destroys progress towards the peace process

Perthes 4 [Head of the Middle East and Africa Research Group at Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, the German Institute for International and

Security Affairs, Berlin, “America’s “Greater Middle East” and Europe: Key Issues for Dialogue,” 9-22, ]

The Arab-Israeli conflict and peace process in particular …and the chances of a pluralistic system emerging from within.

Nuclear annihilation

Nawash 9 [Kamal, president of the Free Muslims Coalition, Legal Director of the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee (ADC), attorney with degrees in business and law and international legal studies, “Israel/Palestine Conflict May Lead to Nuclear War,” 1/10, ]

Surprise, surprise, once again the Palestinian/Israeli conflict spirals out of control. ….and security for Israel. There are no other choices.

Advantage 2

Advantage 2 is Democracy

Failure to synergize US and EU approaches means neither is very effective – the best way to ensure democracy is to support on the ground EU programs

Youngs 4 [Richard, Director of FRIDE, “Transatlantic Cooperation on Middle East Reform: A European Misjudgement?,” October, ]

Europeans risk becoming so fixated with disassociating the EU from the US that they are blinded … to supporting political change in the Middle East. 

The EU has started election monitoring missions – but more support is necessary to ensure free and fair elections

Allen 11 [Michael, Editor of Democracy Digest, “Tunisia’s transition is no fait accompli: needs urgent assistance – and ‘strategic patience’,” 2-1, ]

“It is a mistake to consider the democratic revolution in … to help ease the passage of political, economic and social reform.”

US-EU election monitoring needed to maintain progress towards democracy

Walker and Tucker 11 [Christopher, director of studies at Freedom House; Vanessa, managing editor of Countries at the Crossroads, Freedom House’s annual analysis of democratic governance, “Tunisia: The Arab Spring's Pivotal Democratic Example,” August, ]

POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE U.S. GOVERNMENT AND EUROPEAN UNION …important role as an example for Egypt and other countries in the region.

Coordinated assistance is the decisive variable in ensuring a democratic Tunisia

Hamid 11 [Shadi, Director of Research at the , Fellow at , former Director of Research at the Project on Middle East Democracy, former Hewlett Fellow at Standard University’s Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, “When Pro-Western Regimes Fall: What Should the U.S. Do?,” 1-13, ]

One month ago, Tunisia seemed quiet, stable. Quiet and stable is generally …stand with these oppressed peoples until the day of their freedom finally arrives.” I suppose this is the time to stand?

Tunisia provides a model of democracy for the rest of the Arab world

Allen 11 [Michael, Editor of Democracy Digest, “Tunisia: home-grown revolution needs foreign support,” 1-27, ]

The turbulence has given rise to growing demands for Western assistance …parties, do not outmanoeuvre the moderates.”

Lack of an Arab model for democracy spells doom for other Middle East transitions

Diamond 10 [Larry, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and the Freeman Spogli Institute at Stanford University and director of Stanford's Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law, “Why Are There No Arab Democracies?,” Journal of Democracy, Volume 21, Number 1, January]

The second external factor is the other Arab states themselves, who reinforce … and engage those Islamist actors who would be willing to commit more clearly to liberal-democratic norms.

Democracy solves conflict – multiple ways

LAPPIN  09  PhD candidate at the Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium under the supervision of Prof. Dr. Luc Reychler

Richard Lappin, What Democracy? Exploring the Absent Centre of Post-Conflict Democracy Assistance, Journal of Peace, Conflict and Development, Issue 14, July 2009,

Security

The relationship between democracy and security has been expounded …to Ted Gurr, ―inhibits communal rebellion‖ 25 .

US influence with emerging Middle East democracies key to contain Iran

Feltman 11 [Jeffrey, Assistant Secretary of States, "House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Middle East and South Asia Hearing;

on "Assessing U.S. Foreign Policy Priorities and Needs Amidst Economic Challenges in the Middle East." 3-10, Lexis]

The Middle East is in the midst of a season of transformative change, the full implications of which …push leaders to engage positively with their people, with civil society, and with business, as we pursue our other interests in the region.

Iranian hegemony causes nuclear war

Ben-Meir 07 (Alon Ben-Meir professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU, Realpolitik: Ending Iran’s defiance, 2007, )

Feeling emboldened and unrestrained, Tehran may, however, miscalculate …with no choice but to warn Iran of the severe consequences of not halting its nuclear program.

Successful transition is key to solve terrorism- Tunisia is key

Zarate and Gordon 11 ( David A. Gordon, Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project, and Juan C. Zarate, Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the former Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism, Summer 2011, 'This is an abridgment of “The Battle for Reform with Al-Qaeda,” The Washington Quarterly Summer 2011)

Even the very nature of the protests discredited AQAMS call …retlect this realization and their attempts to shape the narrative of the Arab Spring.

It will go nuclear

Williams 5/13/11 (Sarah Williams, coordinator of the Fissile Materials Working Group, Williams is also a Herbert Scoville Jr. Peace Fellow at the Center for Science, Technology, and Security Policy (CSTSP) at the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, After bin Laden: Nuclear terrorism still a top threat, http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/columnists/fissile-materials-working-group/after-bin-laden-nuclear-terrorism-still-top-t)

Osama bin Laden's death may represent a significant turning … capacity of Al Qaeda, a US priority must be securing this potential source material.

Nuclear terrorism is an existential threat—it escalates to nuclear war with Russia and China.

Ayson 10,  Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, 2010 (Robert, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)

But these two nuclear worlds—a non-state actor nuclear attack and a catastrophic … preemption would probably still meet with a devastating response.

And massive aid now

Associated Press 10/7/11 (Julie Pace, Obama says US has enormous stake in Tunisia, http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/10/07/ap/preswho/main20117458.shtml)

 (AP) WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama pledged U.S. support … for the region, and a successful election there could reverberate throughout the Arab world.

Plan

The United States Special Operations Command should expand necessary elements of its Civil Military Support Element to provide political contestation support in Yemen.

Advantage 1 is Yemen

Advantage 1– Yemen

Al-Ahmars and Saleh are battling for tribal support – this risks a civil war

Arrabyee 10/4/11 (Nasser, Yemeni journalist and writer. “A sinister trio is behind Yemen’s misery.” The Daily Star, .)

Two weeks ago, a near all-out war erupted when opposition protesters … area, in which about 150 people from both sides were killed.

Tribes are coalition building with the al Ahmar family to violently resist Saleh- the US will ignore this

Gundun 8/4/11 - U.S. spokesperson for Yemen’s Coordinating Council for the Youth Revolution of Change (CCYRC). [James Gundun, “Yemeni Tribes Unify Under Western Darkness,” Palestine Chronicle,” 17:02 08/04/2011, pg. ]

As this operation would provoke a new round of hostilities, Yemen’s tribes have rallied their cause …revolutionaries have committed themselves past the point of Saleh’s return.  //1ac

.

al-Ahmar tribal alliance risks civil war

Boone 6/2/11 [Jeb Boone, “Feud within key Yemen tribe could tear nation apart,” Los Angeles Times, June 02, 2011, pg. ]

If poverty-stricken Yemen collapses, the fuse will have been lighted by this internal … will be sucked in, and it will be a great deal harder to reverse," Johnsen said.

Current international efforts failing to stop imminent civil war – it’ll spillover to Saudi Arabia

AFP 10/14/11 (“Yemen's Ali Abdullah Saleh refuses to step down.” Channel News Asia/AFP, http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world/view/1159350/1/.html.)

 DUBAI: A proposed UN resolution on Yemen calling for President Ali Abdullah Saleh to resign that fails …started off as a peaceful popular revolt was turning into a conflict between two opposing arms of the regime.

Also causes 12 million refugees to spill over to Saudi Arabia’s border – collapses stability

Horton 11 (Michael, Senior Analyst for Arabian Affairs at the Jamestown Foundation - Specializes on Yemen and the Horn of Africa, "The Unseen Hand: Saudi Arabian Involvement in Yemen," Terrorism Monitor, Volume 9, Issue 12, March 24,  www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=37687&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=7&cHash=2d68e72ad976a563c017aee8cfd2ebf6)

One analyst recently speculated that if Yemen were to descend into civil war…of King Abd al-Aziz ibn Saud are certainly worth remembering.  

*Yemen is a chokepoint – global oil prices will skyrocket

Markman 4/5/11 - Journalist and Portfolio manager for The Markman Portfolios [Jon D. Markman, “Rising Oil Prices: Is Yemen Next?,” Seeking Alpha, April 5, 2011, pg. ]

Going forward, however, the next culprit in this saga of rising oil prices figures …have one more major oil exporter that is then not exporting.

Oil price will reach $300 in the near term – Critical industries will shutdown

Babej 3/29/11 - Contributor to Forbes [Marc E. Babej, “A Saudi Oil Supply Disruption-The Ultimate Marketing Crisis Scenario,” Forbes, 3/29/2011 @ 01:48PM |pg.  ]

And still: in 2011, the term “unlikely” doesn’t quite carry the weight it used to. When I asked …- Partner at A.T. Kearney who leads the Energy and Chemicals Practice in the Americas.

Global energy wars & expanded coal use

King 08 – Researcher @ Center for New American Security [Neil King, Jr. (Columnist for the Wall Street Journal), “Peak Oil: A Survey of Security Concerns,” CNAS Energy Security Visionaries Series, Center for New American Security, JULY 2008, pg. ]

Many commentators in the United States and abroad have begun to wrestle with the question of …of education that would help the pubic and their elected leaders take the wise steps and avoid the rash ones. Pg. 13-15

Expanded Coal use causes warming and massive species fallout- risks extinction

Hansen 09 - Director of Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies [James Hansen (Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences @  Columbia University and Ph.D. in Physics  from the University of Iowa),  “Coal-fired power stations are death factories. Close them,” The Observer, Sunday 15 February 2009,  pg. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/feb/15/james-hansen-power-plants-coal]

A year ago, I wrote to Gordon Brown asking him to place a moratorium on new coal-fired power plants in ….extinction if carbon dioxide rose another 100 ppm.

Civil war pulls in Saudi Arabia and Iran – Local dispute settlement’s key

Phillips 11 -  Fellow for Middle Eastern Affairs @ Heritage Foundation [James Phillips, “What the President Must Do About Yemen,” The Heritage Foundation, WebMemo #3204, March 24, 2011, pg. ]

Engage the opposition. American diplomats and intelligence officers should discreetly …avert the risk that Yemen will become a failed state that AQAP can exploit.

Triggers Iran-Saudi military confrontation and arms race – Saudis will use Yemeni instability as justification

WSJ 4/16/11 (“The New Cold War.” .)

"The cold war is a reality," says one senior Saudi official. "Iran is looking to ….the Saudis nonetheless viewed the nationwide Yemeni protests in that context.

Nuclear war

Krepinevich 7/14/11 (Andrew, president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. “Panetta’s challenge: China’s and Iran’s weapons programs.” Washington Post, July 14, 2011. .)

 If Iran becomes a nuclear power, the pressure on Saudi Arabia …a “limited” nuclear war in the Middle East.

CMSE’s governance assistance prevents conflict escalation – solving internal disputes

Lightsey 10 – Major assigned to the JFK Special Warfare Center and School’s 1st Special Warfare Training Group. Combat tours include on to Qatar as commander of a CMSE that had elements across Pakistan, Tajikistan and Yemen. [Major Ross F. Lightsey Sr.,“PERSISTENT ENGAGEMENT: Civil Military Support Elements [CMSE] Operating in CENTCOM,” Special Warfare | May-June 2010 (Vol. 23, Issue 3) Pg.

Nonkinetic strategy - In a 2009 article in Foreign Affairs, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said, “Where possible…trust and confidence that the U.S. government will do the right thing at the right time.

Our governance assistance is key - It resolves the underlying grievances that will facilitate conflict escalation – solves terrorism

Walsh 10 - Civil affairs team leader in the Pacific Command supporting 97th Civil Affairs Battalion (Airborne) [Captain Sean P. Walsh (deployed to Iraq in 2007-2008 as a member of the 2d Stryker Cavalry Regiment and served as a rifle platoon leader and civil military planner.), “Divorce Counseling: Civil Affairs Proponency under a New Support Paradigm,” MILITARY REVIEW, November-December 2010]

Described by the Army as “gun-toting diplomats,” CA units in both the Active and …insurgency an irrelevant mode of pursuing a grievance.”4 pg. 71

Nuclear terrorism is coming- all obstacles can be overcome

Bunn et al May, 2011 (The U.S.-Russia Joint Threat Assessment on Nuclear Terrorism, Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.  Matthew Bunn. Associate Professor of Public Policy at Harvard Kennedy School and Co-Principal Investigator of Project on Managing the Atom at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Colonel Yuri Morozov Senior fellow at the U.S.A and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Rolf Mowatt-Larssen. Senior fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, director of Intelligence and Counterintelligence at the U.S. Department of Energy. Simon Saradzhyan. Fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. William Tobey. Senior fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, deputy administrator for Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation at the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration, 2006–2009. Colonel General Viktor I. Yesin (retired Russian Armed Forces). Senior fellow at the U.S.A and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and advisor to commander of the Strategic Missile Forces of Russia, chief of staff of the Strategic Missile Forces, 1994–1996. Major General Pavel S. Zolotarev (retired Russian Armed Forces). Deputy director of the U.S.A and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and head of the Information and Analysis Center of the Russian Ministry of Defense, 1993–1997, deputy chief of staff of the Defense Council of Russia, 1997–1998. )

Nuclear terrorism is a real and urgent threat. Urgent actions are required to reduce the risk…intention to acquire and use nuclear weapons is as strong as ever.

A WMD attack results in nuclear great power war

Ayson 10,  Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, 2010 (Robert, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)

But these two nuclear worlds—a non-state actor nuclear attack and a catastrophic ….grow, although it must be admitted that any preemption would probably still meet with a devastating response.

Bioterror likely – overwhelms defenses

Graham & Talent 10 - Chair & Vice Chair of Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism [ & , “Hearing on the Weapons of Mass Destruction Prevention and Preparedness Act of 2010,” U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Homeland Security, April 21, 2010, pg. ]

In 2009, the Commission was authorized for an additional year of work, to assist Congress and …on our way of life and the public's trust in government.

Bio-weapons represent the single greatest risk of extinction

Ochs, 2

[Richard, BS in Natural Resource Management from Rutgers University, with honors, BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS MUST BE IMMEDIATELY ABOLISHED,

Of all the weapons of mass destruction, the genetically engineered biological weapons, …cure or vaccine. Can we imagine hundreds of such plagues? HUMAN EXTINCTION IS NOW POSSIBLE.

Decapitating the local leadership is key to prevent attacks – Awlaki, Khan and Asiri don’t matter

Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, )

Defensive measures must complement the direct application of force against al-Qa`ida in the Arabian …, a shift toward internationalist and sectarian aims would likely lead to the eventual defeat of the group.

Group Think

Yemen is the test case – Civil Military Support-Elements should be expanded as part of an integrated strategy- DOD must make the lead

Kotlow 3/31/11 - Visiting Senior Service College Fellow at The Washington Institute. Former Defense and Army Attache at the U.S. Embassy in Yemen and Lebanon [Colonel Kazimierz "Kaz" Kotlow (Former political/military advisor to the Multinational Force (MNF) Commander in Iraq.) “Countering Extremism in Yemen: Beyond Interagency Cooperation,” Small Wars Journal, March 31, 2011]

Extremism, especially violent extremism, is a clear threat to the national security of the United States. It is widely ….can help make this approach more systemic and less personality dependent.

Yemen’s key- the approach will be the model

Mitchell 8/1/11 - Foreign Service Officer with USAID. Assigned to a tour in Yemen (80s) [Robert E. Mitchell, “Yemen: Testing a New Coordinated Approach to Preventive Counterinsurgency,” Small Wars Journal, August 1, 2011]

An American-designed strategy attempts to link counterinsurgency and traditional development programs …varying stages of failure and where American anti-terrorism programs are not yet active.

This makes escalatory warfare inevitable- brink is now- attacks are coming

Chossudovsky 10 - Professor of Economics @ University of Ottawa [Michel Chossudovsky (Director of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), “Preparing for World War III, Targeting Iran,” Global Research, August 1, 2010, pg. ]

Humanity is at a dangerous crossroads. War preparations to attack Iran are in "an advanced state of …mention Venezuela and Cuba are also the object of US threats.

CMSE solves- two internal links

a. Interagency- It creates substantive interagency relations between the DOD and other branches

Lightsey 10 – Major assigned to the JFK Special Warfare Center and School’s 1st Special Warfare Training Group. Combat tours include on to Qatar as commander of a CMSE that had elements across Pakistan, Tajikistan and Yemen. [Major Ross F. Lightsey Sr.,“PERSISTENT ENGAGEMENT: Civil Military Support Elements [CMSE] Operating in CENTCOM,” Special Warfare | May-June 2010 (Vol. 23, Issue 3) Pg.

In ongoing irregular conflicts, the civil-military support element, or CMSE, is a unique resource that provides …must engage these countries because the enemy is reaching out to those neighboring regions.

b. Internally- trains military personnel civilian skills necessary to change mindsets

 Shemella 06 - Program Manager for Combating Terrorism @ The Center for Civil-Military Relations, Naval Postgraduate School [PAUL SHEMELLA, “Interagency Coordination: The Other Side of CIMIC,” Small Wars and Insurgencies, Vol. 17, No. 4, 449–457, December 2006

Although CIMIC has become a term of art, it is important to remember where it comes from. ‘Civil–Military Cooperation’ …work for them. Alas, experience shows destructive competition occurs more often than constructive cooperation. Pg. 449-451

The international community specifically views our strategy in Yemen as military tunnel vision – Increasing Civil Capacity is key to reverse this perception

Bodine ’11 (Barbara K. Bodine, Ambassador (Ret.) Barbara K. Bodine is Lecturer and Diplomat-in-Residence at Princeton University’s Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. She was U.S. Ambassador to the Republic of Yemen from 1997 through 2001, “Yemen: Primer and Prescriptions”, , September 6, 2011, LEQ)

To focus disproportionately on immediate military and security capacity-building is shortsighted. If ….dealing with the ramifications of state failure can be guaranteed. PRISM

This will collapse hegemony

Fakiolas and Fakiolas 7 (Efstathios T - PhD from the Department of War Studies, King's College London, and is currently working as a strategy and southeastern European affairs analyst at ATEbank, Tassos E - PhD from IMEMO, Moscow, Russian Academy of Sciences and is a special adviser on Russian and east European affairs for a Greek business firm, "Pax Americana or Multilateralism? Reflecting on the United States' Grand Strategic Vision of Hegemony in the Wake of the 11 September Attacks," Muse) jl

After the 9/11 bombings, the Bush administration launched a large-scale …. to hold the upper hand as a preeminent great power, is another story.

Heg is good

Thayer 6 - Associate Professor of Defense and Strategic Study @ Missouri State University, Former Research Fellow @ International Security Program @ Harvard Belfer Center of Science and International Affairs  (Bradley, “In Defense of Primacy,” The National Interest, November/December)

A grand strategy based on American primacy means ensuring the United States stays … of American primacy due to the economic prosperity it provides.

AT: Only USAID

And the DOD does democracy assistance
GAO 1996 (Promoting Democracy, Progress report on U.S. Democratic Development Assistance to Russia, February, Report to the Chairman and Ranking Minority Member, Committee on International Relations, House of Representatives. http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/GAOREPORTS-NSIAD-96-40/pdf/GAOREPORTS-NSIAD-96-40.pdf)
U.S. democracy assistance ... summarizes these programs.

AT: Demo Assistance

We meet- Civil military aid is democracy assistance
Carothers 99 – Co-director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Project @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace [Thomas Carothers (Vice President of global policy @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Aiding Democracy Abroad: The Learning Curve, 1999, pg. 196-197]
An additional area of democracy aid...and military ones.

Counterinterpretation: Only 4 topical actions – rule of law, governance, elections AND human rights
 GAO 03 [United States General Accounting Office, “FOREIGN ASSISTANCEU.S. Democracy Programs in Six Latin American Countries Have Yielded Modest Results,” Report to Congressional Requesters, March 2003, pg. http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d03358.pdf]

The United States has taken a broad approach ...and international observers.

The political contestation part is T
CAROTHERS  03  Sr. Associate at Carnegie – general DA expert
[Thomas Carothers- June 2003, IS GRADUALISM POSSIBLE? Choosing a Strategy for Promoting Democracy in the Middle East, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/wp39.pdf]

INDIRECTLY PROMOTING DEMOCRACY The second not to Washington’s liking.

1AC

The United States Special Operations Command should expand necessary elements of its Civil Military Support Element to provide political contestation support in Yemen.

Advantage 1: Groupthink

Obama is expanding drone strikes- Yemen is the convergence point
Miller 12/27 (Greg, Greg Miller, Published: December 27 Under Obama, an emerging global apparatus for drone killing http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/national-security/under-obama-an-emerging-global-apparatus-for-drone-killing/2011/12/13/gIQANPdILP_print.html )
The Obama administration’s … to go after those who go after us.”

Escalatory warfare is coming
Chossudovsky 10 - Professor of Economics @ University of Ottawa [Michel Chossudovsky (Director of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), “Preparing for World War III, Targeting Iran,” Global Research, August 1, 2010, pg. http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?aid=20403&context=va]
Humanity is at a dangerous … the object of US threats.

Yemen is the test case - DOD must make the lead
Kotlow 11 - Visiting Senior Service College Fellow at The Washington Institute. Former Defense and Army Attache at the U.S. Embassy in Yemen and Lebanon [Colonel Kazimierz "Kaz" Kotlow (Former political/military advisor to the Multinational Force (MNF) Commander in Iraq.) “Countering Extremism in Yemen: Beyond Interagency Cooperation,” Small Wars Journal, March 31, 2011]

Extremism, especially … and less personality dependent.

The plan gets modeled
Mitchell 11 - Foreign Service Officer with USAID. Assigned to a tour in Yemen (80s) [Robert E. Mitchell, “Yemen: Testing a New Coordinated Approach to Preventive Counterinsurgency,” Small Wars Journal, August 1, 2011]

An American-designed … are not yet active.

Plan creates substantive interagency relations
Lightsey 10 – Major assigned to the JFK Special Warfare Center and School’s 1st Special Warfare Training Group. Combat tours include on to Qatar as commander of a CMSE that had elements across Pakistan, Tajikistan and Yemen. [Major Ross F. Lightsey Sr.,“PERSISTENT ENGAGEMENT: Civil Military Support Elements [CMSE] Operating in CENTCOM,” Special Warfare | May-June 2010 (Vol. 23, Issue 3) Pg. http://afpakwar.com/blog/archives/6888

In ongoing irregular conflicts, … those neighboring regions.
   
And it changes mindsets
Shemella 06 - Program Manager for Combating Terrorism @ The Center for Civil-Military Relations, Naval Postgraduate School [PAUL SHEMELLA, “Interagency Coordination: The Other Side of CIMIC,” Small Wars and Insurgencies, Vol. 17, No. 4, 449–457, December 2006

Although CIMIC has … occurs more often than constructive cooperation. Pg. 449-451

Cooperation attempts are occurring now- only the plan makes them substantive
Shemella 06 - Program Manager for Combating Terrorism @ The Center for Civil-Military Relations, Naval Postgraduate School [PAUL SHEMELLA, “Interagency Coordination: The Other Side of CIMIC,” Small Wars and Insurgencies, Vol. 17, No. 4, 449–457, December 2006
Decision-makers can … decisions their governments require for success. Pg. 452-456 *CIMIC – Civil Military Cooperation


Advantage 2: Terrorism

Current US operations have alienated tribes – political engagement is key to solve terrorism
Foust 12/30 (Joshua Foust - Joshua Foust is a fellow at the American Security Project and the author of Afghanistan Journal: Selections from Registan.net. The Atlantic Home Monday, Unaccountable Killing Machines: The True Cost of U.S. Drones, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/12/unaccountable-killing-machines-the-true-cost-of-us-drones/250661/)
Officials often … around the planet.

Threats are growing; AQAP would strike the US
Raghavan 1/2/12 (Sudarsan, The Washington Post, Militants create haven in Yemen Zinjibar (Yemen), January 02, 2012 http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/RestOfAsia/Militants-create-haven-in-Yemen/Article1-789898.aspx)
In this remote, sun-blasted corner … control entire neighbourhoods.

Extinction
Ayson 10, Robert Ayson, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, 2010 (“After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)

But these two nuclear worlds—a non-… meet with a devastating response.

AQAP will strike India
Roychowdhury 9/6 [Gen. Shankar Roychowdhury is a former Chief of Army Staff and a former member of Parliament, “India needs a 360° terror appraisal”, September 6, 2011, Deccan Chronicle, http://www.deccanchronicle.com/editorial/dc-comment/india-needs-360%C2%B0-terror-appraisal-659]

In this context, Al Qaeda ..exercise the requisite caution.

That causes Indo-Pak nuclear war
Zarate 11 [Juan C. Zarate, Sunday, February 20, 2011, “An alarming South Asia powder keg”, Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/18/AR2011021805662.html]

In 1914, a terrorist …. greatest threat we face from terrorism.

Extinction
Starr 11 (Consequences of a Single Failure of Nuclear Deterrence by Steven Starr February 07, 2011      * Associate member of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation     * Senior Scientist for PSR

Only a single …deployed U.S. and Russian nuclear forces.

AQAP strikes nuclear power plant
Kimery 11 – Homeland Security Today's senior reporter and online editor (Anthony, W. Scott Malone, multiple Emmy and Peabody award-winning investigative journalist and former senior editor of NavySEALs.com. He runs the website's counterterrorism newsletter spin-off, “BlackNET Intelligence Channel,” 05/12, “Al Qaeda Could Try to Replicate Fukushima-type Meltdowns,” http://www.hstoday.us/blogs/the-kimery-report/blog/al-qaeda-could-try-to-replicate-fukushima-type-meltdowns/aa96292934d83bb8c9f97fd9d685f32b.html)

A May 5 "intelligence …within a matter of hours …”

Meltdowns cause extinction
Lendman 11 – Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization (Stephen, 03/ 13, “Nuclear Meltdown in Japan,” http://www.thepeoplesvoice.org/TPV3/Voices.php/2011/03/13/nuclear-meltdown-in-japan)

Reuters said the … literally, an apocalyptic event.


Special forces key – trust, intelligence, and recruitment
Paulhus 11 (Matthew, "Beyond Afghanistan and Pakistan: Responding to Al-Qaeda's Threat in Yemen and Africa," Countering Al-Qaeda's Ideology: Re-Assessing US Policy Ten Years After 9/11, Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies Task Force Rhttps://digital.lib.washington.edu/researchworks/bitstream/handle/1773/16495/Task%20Force%20O%202011.pdf?sequence=1)
Build trust with …addressing their own issues.

Plan resolves the underlying grievances– solves terrorism
Walsh 10 - Civil affairs team leader in the Pacific Command supporting 97th Civil Affairs Battalion (Airborne) [Captain Sean P. Walsh (deployed to Iraq in 2007-2008 as a member of the 2d Stryker Cavalry Regiment and served as a rifle platoon leader and civil military planner.), “Divorce Counseling: Civil Affairs Proponency under a New Support Paradigm,” MILITARY REVIEW, November-December 2010]

Described by the … pursuing a grievance.”4 pg. 71

Decapitating the local leadership is key to prevent attacks – Awlaki, Khan and Asiri don’t matter
Koehler-Derrick 10/3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, )

Defensive measures must … defeat of the group.

Advantage 3 is Civil War

Civil war coming now – democracy assistance is key and Yemen says yes
Finn 12/21 (Tom, Salafist, Houthi sectarian rift threatens to engulf fragile state of Yemen http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2011/Dec-21/157464-salafist-houthi-sectarian-rift-threatens-to-engulf-fragile-state-of-yemen.ashx#axzz1hCENbqAV)

SAADA,Yemen: Their faces …traditional political parties.”

Civil war spillover to Saudi Arabia
AFP 10/14/11 (“Yemen's Ali Abdullah Saleh refuses to step down.” Channel News Asia/AFP, http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world/view/1159350/1/.html.)

 DUBAI: A proposed ….opposing arms of the regime.

Refugee inflows collapse Saudi stability
Horton 11 (Michael, Senior Analyst for Arabian Affairs at the Jamestown Foundation - Specializes on Yemen and the Horn of Africa, "The Unseen Hand: Saudi Arabian Involvement in Yemen," Terrorism Monitor, Volume 9, Issue 12, March 24,  www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=37687&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=7&cHash=2d68e72ad976a563c017aee8cfd2ebf6)

One analyst recently … certainly worth remembering.   

Oil prices would soar – industries shut down
Babej 3/29/11 - Contributor to Forbes [Marc E. Babej, “A Saudi Oil Supply Disruption-The Ultimate Marketing Crisis Scenario,” Forbes, 3/29/2011 @ 01:48PM |pg.  http://www.forbes.com/sites/marcbabej/2011/03/29/a-saudi-oil-supply-disruption-the-ultimate-marketing-crisis-scenario/]

And still: in 2011, the term “…Chemicals Practice in the Americas.

That causes Global energy wars and expanded coal use
King 08 – Researcher @ Center for New American Security [Neil King, Jr. (Columnist for the Wall Street Journal), “Peak Oil: A Survey of Security Concerns,” CNAS Energy Security Visionaries Series, Center for New American Security, JULY 2008, pg. www.aspousa.org/aspousa4/.../_CNAS_King_Peak_Oil_WorkingPaper.pdf]

Many commentators in the ..avoid the rash ones. Pg. 13-15

Expanded Coal use causes warming and massive species fallout- risks extinction
Hansen 09 - Director of Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies [James Hansen (Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences @  Columbia University and Ph.D. in Physics  from the University of Iowa),  “Coal-fired power stations are death factories. Close them,” The Observer, Sunday 15 February 2009,  pg. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/feb/15/james-hansen-power-plants-coal]

A year ago, I wrote to Gordon Brown …. rose another 100 ppm.

CMSE’s governance assistance prevents conflict escalation – solving internal disputes
Lightsey 10 – Major assigned to the JFK Special Warfare Center and School’s 1st Special Warfare Training Group. Combat tours include on to Qatar as commander of a CMSE that had elements across Pakistan, Tajikistan and Yemen. [Major Ross F. Lightsey Sr.,“PERSISTENT ENGAGEMENT: Civil Military Support Elements [CMSE] Operating in CENTCOM,” Special Warfare | May-June 2010 (Vol. 23, Issue 3) Pg. http://afpakwar.com/blog/archives/6888

Nonkinetic strategy - In a 2009 …right thing at the right time.

CMSE will coordinate with local community leader – We expand their governance capacity and accountability
Lightsey 10 – Major assigned to the JFK Special Warfare Center and School’s 1st Special Warfare Training Group. Combat tours include on to Qatar as commander of a CMSE that had elements across Pakistan, Tajikistan and Yemen. [Major Ross F. Lightsey Sr.,“PERSISTENT ENGAGEMENT: Civil Military Support Elements [CMSE] Operating in CENTCOM,” Special Warfare | May-June 2010 (Vol. 23, Issue 3) Pg. http://afpakwar.com/blog/archives/6888

So how have these …. A more concerted nonkinetic e

We provide a micro-scale diplomatic model that solves
Lightsey 08 – Major assigned to the JFK Special Warfare Center and School’s 1st Special Warfare Training Group. Combat tours include on to Qatar as commander of a CMSE that had elements across Pakistan, Tajikistan and Yemen. [Major Ross F. Lightsey Sr., “Civil Affairs Support to the Surge,” Special Warfare, March-April 2008, Volume 21 Issue 2]

DIME principle - Commanders in the …jump-start local economies. Pg. 21

The Military is insular – they will only listen to the aff
Wright Mills 1956 Professor of Sociology at Columbia University. A maverick social scientist who taught in Copenhagen, London, and Mexico City in addition to the United States. “The Power Elite” http://mavdisk.mnsu.edu/parsnk/Archive%202007-8/POL371/website/readings/the%20power%20elite.pdf
More than any other creatures of the … for accomplishing them.

 

 Plan

The United States Special Operations Command should expand necessary elements of its Civil Military Support Element to provide political contestation support in Yemen.

1AC Groupthink

Yemen is the test case – Civil Military Support-Elements should be expanded as part of an integrated strategy- DOD must make the lead

Kotlow 3/31/11 - Visiting Senior Service College Fellow at The Washington Institute. Former Defense and Army Attache at the U.S. Embassy in Yemen and Lebanon [Colonel Kazimierz "Kaz" Kotlow (Former political/military advisor to the Multinational Force (MNF) Commander in Iraq.) “Countering Extremism in Yemen: Beyond Interagency Cooperation,” Small Wars Journal, March 31, 2011]

Extremism, especially violent extremism, is a clear threat to … this approach more systemic and less personality dependent.

This makes escalatory warfare inevitable- brink is now- attacks are coming

Chossudovsky 10 - Professor of Economics @ University of Ottawa [Michel Chossudovsky (Director of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), “Preparing for World War III, Targeting Iran,” Global Research, August 1, 2010, pg. http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?aid=20403&context=va]

Humanity is at a dangerous crossroads. War preparations to attack Iran …, China, Russia, North Korea, not to mention Venezuela and Cuba are also the object of US threats.

 These aggressive military involvements are empirically proven

Schneider 03 – Director, U.S. Air Force Counterproliferation Center, Maxwell Air Force Base [Barry R. Schneider, “Deterring International Rivals From War and Escalation,” Know Thy Enemy: Profiles of Adversary Leaders and Their Strategic Cultures, Edited By: Barry R. Schneider and Jerrold M. Post, July 2003 (Second edition)]

Decisions taken during periods of acute stress may be characterized by …shared complacency about the effectiveness and morality of their decisions.  Pg. 8-9

CMSE solves- two internal links

a. Interagency- It creates substantive interagency relations between the DOD and other branches

Lightsey 10 – Major assigned to the JFK Special Warfare Center and School’s 1st Special Warfare Training Group. Combat tours include on to Qatar as commander of a CMSE that had elements across Pakistan, Tajikistan and Yemen. [Major Ross F. Lightsey Sr.,“PERSISTENT ENGAGEMENT: Civil Military Support Elements [CMSE] Operating in CENTCOM,” Special Warfare | May-June 2010 (Vol. 23, Issue 3) Pg. http://afpakwar.com/blog/archives/6888

In ongoing irregular conflicts, the civil-military support element, or CMSE, is … enemy is reaching out to those neighboring regions.

b. Internally- trains military personnel civilian skills necessary to change mindsets

 Shemella 06 - Program Manager for Combating Terrorism @ The Center for Civil-Military Relations, Naval Postgraduate School [PAUL SHEMELLA, “Interagency Coordination: The Other Side of CIMIC,” Small Wars and Insurgencies, Vol. 17, No. 4, 449–457, December 2006

Although CIMIC has become a term of art, it is important to remember where it …occurs more often than constructive cooperation. Pg. 449-451

1AC Heg

The international community specifically views our strategy in Yemen as military tunnel vision – Increasing Civil Capacity is key to reverse this perception

Bodine ’11 (Barbara K. Bodine, Ambassador (Ret.) Barbara K. Bodine is Lecturer and Diplomat-in-Residence at Princeton University’s Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. She was U.S. Ambassador to the Republic of Yemen from 1997 through 2001, “Yemen: Primer and Prescriptions”, http://www.ndu.edu/press/yemen.html, September 6, 2011, LEQ)

To focus disproportionately on immediate military … far greater cost of dealing with the ramifications of state failure can be guaranteed. PRISM

This will collapse hegemony

Fakiolas and Fakiolas 7 (Efstathios T - PhD from the Department of War Studies, King's College London, and is currently working as a strategy and southeastern European affairs analyst at ATEbank, Tassos E - PhD from IMEMO, Moscow, Russian Academy of Sciences and is a special adviser on Russian and east European affairs for a Greek business firm, "Pax Americana or Multilateralism? Reflecting on the United States' Grand Strategic Vision of Hegemony in the Wake of the 11 September Attacks," Muse) jl

After the 9/11 bombings, the Bush administration launched a large-scale political … order to continue to hold the upper hand as a preeminent great power, is another story.

Perception matters- the international communities’ perception of an aggression-only strategy causes counter-balancing

Boyle and Scmid ‘9 (A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism: Towards a Robust Multilateral Counter-Terrorism Regime Dr. Michael J. Boyle and Professor Alex P. Schmid Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence University of St. Andrews Sponsored by the The New Ideas Fund, 2009

The war on terror has failed to become the dominant frame … difficult than it would have otherwise been.

Heg is good

Thayer 6 - Associate Professor of Defense and Strategic Study @ Missouri State University, Former Research Fellow @ International Security Program @ Harvard Belfer Center of Science and International Affairs  (Bradley, “In Defense of Primacy,” The National Interest, November/December)

A grand strategy based on American primacy means ensuring the United States …proponents of American primacy due to the economic prosperity it provides.

Studies prove conflicts have been decreasing – primacy is THE reason.

Drezner, 2005 

[Daniel, Gregg Easterbrook, Associate Professor of International Politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, “War, and the dangers of extrapolation,” may 25]

Daily explosions in Iraq, massacres in Sudan, the Koreas smakestaring at each other through artillery barrels, … each other, the prospect of U.S. intervention would be equally daunting.

Best studies validate our claim – if root causes are important, heg correlates way better than anything else

Owen, associate professor of politics – University of Virginia, 2/11/’11

(John, “Don’t Discount Hegemony,” http://www.cato-unbound.org/2011/02/11/john-owen/dont-discount-hegemony/)

Andrew Mack and his colleagues at the Human Security Report … U.S. material and moral support for liberal democracy remains strong.

1AC Preempts

Threat construction arguments ahistorically and have no impact—Enemies who are willing to do violence are real—preparing for these threats is key to prevent worst forms of violence and doesn’t lead to violence—history and studying interactions with third parties proves

Peters 09

Ralph, retired U.S. Army officer, a strategist, an author, a journalist who has reported from various war zones, and a lifelong traveler. He is the author of 24 books. “Wishful Thinking and Indecisive Wars” Spring 2009

There are multiple reasons for this American amnesia about the cost of victory. First, we, the people, …most dangerous is our own wishful thinking.  

Empiricism is the most useful form of knowledge for policymakers—useful in making theories to shape policy

Walt, ‘5 – Prof, Kennedy School of Government @ Harvard (Stephen M., Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci. 2005. 8:23–48, pg. 25-26,  “The Relationship Between Theory and Policy in International Relations,” http://www.iheid.ch/webdav/site/political_science/shared/political_science/3452/walt.pdf)

Policy decisions can be influenced by several types of knowledge. First, policy makers invariably … analysis, and hermeneutical or interpretivist approaches.

Positivism is best - its self-reflective, recognizes there’s no absolute truth,  and uses observable regularities to inform action – focus on epistemology causes a retreat from policy relevance -

Houghton 08  Associate Professor of International Relations Theory at the University of Central Florida

(David Patrick, Positivism ‘vs’ Postmodernism: Does Epistemology Make a Difference? International Politics (2008) 45 )

As long ago as 1981, Yale Ferguson and Richard Mansbach effectively laid … ones, ought to be what divides the international relations scene today.

Predictions don’t have to be perfect, just good enough

BRUCE BUENO DE MESQUITA, Julius Silver Professor of Politics at New York University, July 18th, 2011“FOX-HEDGING OR KNOWING: ONE BIG WAY TO KNOW MANY THINGS” http://www.cato-unbound.org/2011/07/18/bruce-bueno-de-mesquita/fox-hedging-or-knowing-one-big-way-to-know-many-things/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+cato-unbound+%28Cato+Unbound%29

It is hard to say which is more surprising, that anyone … replicable tests of evidence, we progress toward better prediction.

There are no prior questions to problem oriented IR- empirical validity is a sufficient justification for action. Emphasis on metaphysical hurdles destroys any chance of effectively describing the world and guiding action

David Owen, Reader of Political Theory at the Univ. of Southampton,  Millennium Vol 31 No 3 2002 p. 655-7

Commenting on the ‘philosophical turn’ in IR, Wæver remarks that ‘[a] frenzy for words like … dangers, and so a potentially vicious circle arises.

 Plan

The United States Special Operations Command should expand necessary elements of its Civil Military Support Element to provide political contestation support in Yemen.

Advantage 1: Kinetic Engagement

Obama is expanding drone strikes- Yemen is the convergence point

Miller 12/27 (Greg, Greg Miller, Published: December 27 Under Obama, an emerging global apparatus for drone killing http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/national-security/under-obama-an-emerging-global-apparatus-for-drone-killing/2011/12/13/gIQANPdILP_print.html )

The Obama administration’s counterterrorism accomplishments … took note of the fact that we tend to go after those who go after us.”

Escalatory warfare is coming

Chossudovsky 10 - Professor of Economics @ University of Ottawa [Michel Chossudovsky (Director of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), “Preparing for World War III, Targeting Iran,” Global Research, August 1, 2010, pg. http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?aid=20403&context=va]

Humanity is at a dangerous crossroads. War preparations to attack Iran …Venezuela and Cuba are also the object of US threats.

Yemen is the test case - DOD must make the lead

Kotlow 11 - Visiting Senior Service College Fellow at The Washington Institute. Former Defense and Army Attache at the U.S. Embassy in Yemen and Lebanon [Colonel Kazimierz "Kaz" Kotlow (Former political/military advisor to the Multinational Force (MNF) Commander in Iraq.) “Countering Extremism in Yemen: Beyond Interagency Cooperation,” Small Wars Journal, March 31, 2011]

Extremism, especially violent extremism, is a clear threat to the national security of … make this approach more systemic and less personality dependent.

Plan creates substantive interagency relations

Lightsey 10 – Major assigned to the JFK Special Warfare Center and School’s 1st Special Warfare Training Group. Combat tours include on to Qatar as commander of a CMSE that had elements across Pakistan, Tajikistan and Yemen. [Major Ross F. Lightsey Sr.,“PERSISTENT ENGAGEMENT: Civil Military Support Elements [CMSE] Operating in CENTCOM,” Special Warfare | May-June 2010 (Vol. 23, Issue 3) Pg. http://afpakwar.com/blog/archives/6888

In ongoing irregular conflicts, the civil-military support element, or CMSE, is a … is reaching out to those neighboring regions.

And it changes mindsets

Shemella 06 - Program Manager for Combating Terrorism @ The Center for Civil-Military Relations, Naval Postgraduate School [PAUL SHEMELLA, “Interagency Coordination: The Other Side of CIMIC,” Small Wars and Insurgencies, Vol. 17, No. 4, 449–457, December 2006

Although CIMIC has become a term of art, it is important to remember … more often than constructive cooperation. Pg. 449-451

The plan gets modeled

Mitchell 11 - Foreign Service Officer with USAID. Assigned to a tour in Yemen (80s) [Robert E. Mitchell, “Yemen: Testing a New Coordinated Approach to Preventive Counterinsurgency,” Small Wars Journal, August 1, 2011]

An American-designed strategy attempts to link counterinsurgency … American anti-terrorism programs are not yet active.

The plan’s focus on Special Forces is key to cementing irregular warfare capabilities- they will collapse now

Sims 2012 (Christopher Sims; Fernando Luján; and Bing West, January/February 2012, Both Sides of the COIN, Defining War After FERNANDO LUJAN is an International Affairs Fellow at the Council on Foreign ­Relations based at the Center for a New American Security. He is a Major in the U.S. Special Forces and served in the Pentagon's AfPak Hands program. CHRISTOPHER SIMS is a doctoral candidate in the Department of War Studies at King's College London. Afghanistan http://www.foreignaffairs.com/print/134072)

In his analysis of the shortcomings of the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan, … condemning U.S. soldiers to repeat the mistakes of the past.

Irregular warfighting is key to preventing escalation from inevitable global conflicts – this accesses every impact

Bennett ‘8  (John, Defense News, “JFCOM Releases Study on Future Threats”, 12-4, http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=3850158)

The study predicts future U.S. forces' missions will range "from regular and … American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone," said the report.

Pakistani loose nukes causes global war

Pitt, 9- a New York Times writer and internationally bestselling author of two books: "War on Iraq: What Team Bush Doesn't Want You to Know" and "The Greatest Sedition Is Silence." (5/8/09, William, “Unstable Pakistan Threatens the World,” http://www.arabamericannews.com/news/index.php?mod=article&cat=commentary&article=2183)

But a suicide bomber in Pakistan rammed a car packed with explosives into a …administration appears to be gravely serious about addressing the situation. So should we all.

Advantage 2: Terrorism

Current US operations have alienated tribes – political engagement is key to solve terrorism

Foust 12/30 (Joshua Foust - Joshua Foust is a fellow at the American Security Project and the author of Afghanistan Journal: Selections from Registan.net. The Atlantic Home Monday, Unaccountable Killing Machines: The True Cost of U.S. Drones, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/12/unaccountable-killing-machines-the-true-cost-of-us-drones/250661/)

Officials often portray the global expansion of deadly drone strikes ,,, we use to wantonly kill people around the planet.

The AQAP is planning a massive terrorist attack- this year is key

Benson 1/30/12 (Al Qaeda benefits from Yemen turmoil By CNN's Pam Benson January 30th, 2012 http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/30/aqap-benefits-from-turmoil-in-yemen/)

When President Barack Obama told Americans last week that al Qaeda … addition to this hard policy of fighting," Green said.

They can get nuclear weapons

Bunn et al May, 2011 (The U.S.-Russia Joint Threat Assessment on Nuclear Terrorism, Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.  Matthew Bunn. Associate Professor of Public Policy at Harvard Kennedy School and Co-Principal Investigator of Project on Managing the Atom at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Colonel Yuri Morozov Senior fellow at the U.S.A and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Rolf Mowatt-Larssen. Senior fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, director of Intelligence and Counterintelligence at the U.S. Department of Energy. Simon Saradzhyan. Fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. William Tobey. Senior fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, deputy administrator for Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation at the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration, 2006–2009. Colonel General Viktor I. Yesin (retired Russian Armed Forces). Senior fellow at the U.S.A and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and advisor to commander of the Strategic Missile Forces of Russia, chief of staff of the Strategic Missile Forces, 1994–1996. Major General Pavel S. Zolotarev (retired Russian Armed Forces). Deputy director of the U.S.A and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and head of the Information and Analysis Center of the Russian Ministry of Defense, 1993–1997, deputy chief of staff of the Defense Council of Russia, 1997–1998. http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Joint-Threat-Assessment%20ENG%2027%20May%202011.pdf)

Nuclear terrorism is a real and urgent threat. Urgent actions are required …, or to recover nuclear material after it has been stolen.

Extinction

Ayson 10, Robert Ayson, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, 2010 (“After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)

But these two nuclear worlds—a non-state actor nuclear attack and a catastrophic interstate nuclear exchange—…preemption would probably still meet with a devastating response.

AQAP will strike India

Roychowdhury 9/6 [Gen. Shankar Roychowdhury is a former Chief of Army Staff and a former member of Parliament, “India needs a 360° terror appraisal”, September 6, 2011, Deccan Chronicle, http://www.deccanchronicle.com/editorial/dc-comment/india-needs-360%C2%B0-terror-appraisal-659]

In this context, Al Qaeda and its emerging connections in Yemen … must take due note of other threats as well and exercise the requisite caution.

That causes Indo-Pak nuclear war

Zarate 11 [Juan C. Zarate, Sunday, February 20, 2011, “An alarming South Asia powder keg”, Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/18/AR2011021805662.html]

In 1914, a terrorist assassinated Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo - … may be the greatest threat we face from terrorism.

Extinction

Starr 11 (Consequences of a Single Failure of Nuclear Deterrence by Steven Starr February 07, 2011      * Associate member of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation     * Senior Scientist for PSR

Only a single failure of nuclear deterrence is required to start a nuclear war, … operational and deployed U.S. and Russian nuclear forces.

Al-Qaeda will successfully attack nuclear power plants across the globe – causes meltdowns and kills the nuclear industry

Kimery 11 – Homeland Security Today's senior reporter and online editor (Anthony, W. Scott Malone, multiple Emmy and Peabody award-winning investigative journalist and former senior editor of NavySEALs.com. He runs the website's counterterrorism newsletter spin-off, “BlackNET Intelligence Channel,” 05/12, “Al Qaeda Could Try to Replicate Fukushima-type Meltdowns,” http://www.hstoday.us/blogs/the-kimery-report/blog/al-qaeda-could-try-to-replicate-fukushima-type-meltdowns/aa96292934d83bb8c9f97fd9d685f32b.html)

A May 5 "intelligence brief" prepared by a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) … can result in a catastrophic failure within a matter of hours …”

Meltdowns cause extinction

Lendman 11 – Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization (Stephen, 03/ 13, “Nuclear Meltdown in Japan,” http://www.thepeoplesvoice.org/TPV3/Voices.php/2011/03/13/nuclear-meltdown-in-japan)

Reuters said the 1995 Kobe quake caused $100 billion in damage, up to then the most costly …"It could be, literally, an apocalyptic event.

Special forces key – trust, intelligence, and recruitment

Paulhus 11 (Matthew, "Beyond Afghanistan and Pakistan: Responding to Al-Qaeda's Threat in Yemen and Africa," Countering Al-Qaeda's Ideology: Re-Assessing US Policy Ten Years After 9/11, Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies Task Force Rhttps://digital.lib.washington.edu/researchworks/bitstream/handle/1773/16495/Task%20Force%20O%202011.pdf?sequence=1)

Build trust with governments and local people. The U.S. must be … Yemeni government to remain accountable, stable, and capable of addressing their own issues.

The plan’s engagement with Tribal leaders is key to solve

Green 11 - Soref fellow @ The Washington Institute. Served with the U.S. Navy and State Department in Afghanistan and a tour with the U.S. Navy in Iraq.   [Daniel Green (Working on a province-by-province examination of AQAP operations in Yemen), “The American Moment in Yemen,” Fikra Forum, April 18, 2011, pg. http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/]

If the United States adopts a new approach to Yemen following …which to launch attacks against the United States.

Airstrikes on AQAP’s leadership have failed – the organization is strong and is key to global Al Qaeda

Roggio 12-23 (Bill, "AQAP leaders' brother reported killed in US drone strike," The Long War Journal, www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2011/12/aqap_leaders_brother.php)

Since December 2009, some of the top leaders of al Qaeda in … neighboring countries."

Advantage 3: Civil War

The US is already pushing democracy but unrest will destroy progress

Ghobari 1/17/12 ( Yemen unrest may force election delay - minister By Mohammed Ghobari SANAA | Tue Jan 17, 2012 9:52pm GMT http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/01/17/uk-yemen-elections-idUKTRE80G26S20120117)

(Reuters) - Yemen's presidential election set for February … an interview shown on Al Arabiya TV on Tuesday.

Civil war coming now – democracy assistance is key and Yemen says yes

Finn 12/21 (Tom, Salafist, Houthi sectarian rift threatens to engulf fragile state of Yemen http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2011/Dec-21/157464-salafist-houthi-sectarian-rift-threatens-to-engulf-fragile-state-of-yemen.ashx#axzz1hCENbqAV)

SAADA,Yemen: Their faces bruised and limbs scarred by bullet wounds, … not be limited to the traditional political parties.”

Civil war spillover to Saudi Arabia

AFP 10/14/11 (“Yemen's Ali Abdullah Saleh refuses to step down.” Channel News Asia/AFP, http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world/view/1159350/1/.html.)

 DUBAI: A proposed UN resolution on Yemen calling for .. off as a peaceful popular revolt was turning into a conflict between two opposing arms of the regime.

That collapses Saudi Arabia

LeVine 11 – adjunct professor of energy and security at the School of Securities Studies at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service, contributing editor at Foreign Policy magazine, author of The Oil and the Glory (Steve, 03/21, “Back to Saudi's fault lines,” http://oilandglory.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/03/21/back_to_saudis_fault_lines)

The oil balance is back on precarious footing. The shift of … reserves and production underpin global price stability.

Oil prices would soar – industries shut down

Babej 3/29/11 - Contributor to Forbes [Marc E. Babej, “A Saudi Oil Supply Disruption-The Ultimate Marketing Crisis Scenario,” Forbes, 3/29/2011 @ 01:48PM |pg.  http://www.forbes.com/sites/marcbabej/2011/03/29/a-saudi-oil-supply-disruption-the-ultimate-marketing-crisis-scenario/]

And still: in 2011, the term “unlikely” doesn’t quite carry the weight it used to. .. products containing oil derivatives. * Vance Scott - Partner at A.T. Kearney who leads the Energy and Chemicals Practice in the Americas.

That causes Global energy wars and expanded coal use

King 08 – Researcher @ Center for New American Security [Neil King, Jr. (Columnist for the Wall Street Journal), “Peak Oil: A Survey of Security Concerns,” CNAS Energy Security Visionaries Series, Center for New American Security, JULY 2008, pg. www.aspousa.org/aspousa4/.../_CNAS_King_Peak_Oil_WorkingPaper.pdf]

Many commentators in the United States and abroad have begun …the wise steps and avoid the rash ones. Pg. 13-15

Expanded Coal use causes warming and massive species fallout- risks extinction

Hansen 09 - Director of Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies [James Hansen (Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences @  Columbia University and Ph.D. in Physics  from the University of Iowa),  “Coal-fired power stations are death factories. Close them,” The Observer, Sunday 15 February 2009,  pg. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/feb/15/james-hansen-power-plants-coal]

A year ago, I wrote to Gordon Brown asking him to place a moratorium …committed to extinction if carbon dioxide rose another 100 ppm.

CMSE assistance prevents conflict escalation – solving internal disputes

Lightsey 10 – Major assigned to the JFK Special Warfare Center and School’s 1st Special Warfare Training Group. Combat tours include on to Qatar as commander of a CMSE that had elements across Pakistan, Tajikistan and Yemen. [Major Ross F. Lightsey Sr.,“PERSISTENT ENGAGEMENT: Civil Military Support Elements [CMSE] Operating in CENTCOM,” Special Warfare | May-June 2010 (Vol. 23, Issue 3) Pg. http://afpakwar.com/blog/archives/6888

Nonkinetic strategy - In a 2009 article in Foreign Affairs, Secretary of Defense … the U.S. government will do the right thing at the right time.

Direct US engagement with tribal leaders is key to resolve Iranian hegemony and a full scale Iran-Saudi war

Phillips 11 -  Fellow for Middle Eastern Affairs @ Heritage Foundation [James Phillips, “What the President Must Do About Yemen,” The Heritage Foundation, WebMemo #3204, March 24, 2011, pg. http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/03/what-the-president-must-do-about-yemen]

Engage the opposition. American diplomats and intelligence officers should …risk that Yemen will become a failed state that AQAP can exploit.

Iran Saudi war escalates

Ash Jain, visiting fellow, 8-2011, “Nuclear Weapons and Iran’s Global Ambitions: Troubling Scenarios.” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus114.pdf

As it looks for plausibly deniable ways to intimidate and subvert ..though this could be complicated in the face of a nuclear Iran.

Unchecked Iran guarantees nuclear miscalculation. 

Ben-Meir ‘7 

[Alon, Professor of international relations @ Center for Global Affair, New York University, “Ending Iranian Defiance,” New York (UPI) Feb 06, 2007, pg. http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Ending_Iranian_Defiance_999.html]

That Iran stands today able to challenge or even defy the United States in … the severe consequences of not halting its nuclear program.

 Plan

The United States Special Operations Command should expand necessary elements of its Civil Military Support Element to provide political contestation support in Yemen.

Advantage 1: Kinetic Engagement

Scenario 1 is Hegemony

The international community specifically views our strategy in Yemen as military tunnel vision – Increasing Civil Capacity is key to reverse this perception

Bodine ’11 (Barbara K. Bodine, Ambassador (Ret.) Barbara K. Bodine is Lecturer and Diplomat-in-Residence at Princeton University’s Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. She was U.S. Ambassador to the Republic of Yemen from 1997 through 2001, “Yemen: Primer and Prescriptions”, http://www.ndu.edu/press/yemen.html, September 6, 2011)

To focus disproportionately on immediate military and security …cost of dealing with the ramifications of state failure can be guaranteed. PRISM

This will collapse hegemony

Fakiolas and Fakiolas 7 (Efstathios T - PhD from the Department of War Studies, King's College London, and is currently working as a strategy and southeastern European affairs analyst at ATEbank, Tassos E - PhD from IMEMO, Moscow, Russian Academy of Sciences and is a special adviser on Russian and east European affairs for a Greek business firm, "Pax Americana or Multilateralism? Reflecting on the United States' Grand Strategic Vision of Hegemony in the Wake of the 11 September Attacks," Muse)

After the 9/11 bombings, the Bush administration launched a … the upper hand as a preeminent great power, is another story.

Hegemony solves nuke war and extinction

Barnett 11 (Thomas P.M, Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads

It is worth first examining the larger picture: We live in a time … of the 20th century, setting the stage for the Pacific Century now unfolding.

Scenario 2 is preemption:

Escalatory warfare is coming now

Chossudovsky 10 - Professor of Economics @ University of Ottawa [Michel Chossudovsky (Director of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), “Preparing for World War III, Targeting Iran,” Global Research, August 1, 2010, pg. http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?aid=20403&context=va]

Humanity is at a dangerous crossroads. War preparations to …and Cuba are also the object of US threats.

Yemen is the test case - DOD must make the lead

Kotlow 11 - Visiting Senior Service College Fellow at The Washington Institute. Former Defense and Army Attache at the U.S. Embassy in Yemen and Lebanon [Colonel Kazimierz "Kaz" Kotlow (Former political/military advisor to the Multinational Force (MNF) Commander in Iraq.) “Countering Extremism in Yemen: Beyond Interagency Cooperation,” Small Wars Journal, March 31, 2011]

Extremism, especially violent extremism, is a clear threat to the national … expectation can help make this approach more systemic and less personality dependent.

Plan creates substantive interagency relations

Lightsey 10 – Major assigned to the JFK Special Warfare Center and School’s 1st Special Warfare Training Group. Combat tours include on to Qatar as commander of a CMSE that had elements across Pakistan, Tajikistan and Yemen. [Major Ross F. Lightsey Sr.,“PERSISTENT ENGAGEMENT: Civil Military Support Elements [CMSE] Operating in CENTCOM,” Special Warfare | May-June 2010 (Vol. 23, Issue 3) Pg. http://afpakwar.com/blog/archives/6888

In ongoing irregular conflicts, the civil-military support element, or CMSE, … the enemy is reaching out to those neighboring regions.

And it changes mindsets

Shemella 06 - Program Manager for Combating Terrorism @ The Center for Civil-Military Relations, Naval Postgraduate School [PAUL SHEMELLA, “Interagency Coordination: The Other Side of CIMIC,” Small Wars and Insurgencies, Vol. 17, No. 4, 449–457, December 2006

Although CIMIC has become a term of art, it is important to remember …more often than constructive cooperation. Pg. 449-451

The plan gets modeled

Mitchell 11 - Foreign Service Officer with USAID. Assigned to a tour in Yemen (80s) [Robert E. Mitchell, “Yemen: Testing a New Coordinated Approach to Preventive Counterinsurgency,” Small Wars Journal, August 1, 2011]

An American-designed strategy attempts to link … of failure and where American anti-terrorism programs are not yet active.

Scenario 3 is Irregular Warfighting

The plan’s focus on Special Forces is key to cementing irregular warfare capabilities- they will collapse now

Sims 2012 (Christopher Sims; Fernando Luján; and Bing West, January/February 2012, Both Sides of the COIN, Defining War After FERNANDO LUJAN is an International Affairs Fellow at the Council on Foreign ­Relations based at the Center for a New American Security. He is a Major in the U.S. Special Forces and served in the Pentagon's AfPak Hands program. CHRISTOPHER SIMS is a doctoral candidate in the Department of War Studies at King's College London. Afghanistan http://www.foreignaffairs.com/print/134072)

In his analysis of the shortcomings of the U.S.-led war in …soldiers to repeat the mistakes of the past.

Irregular warfighting is key to preventing escalation from inevitable global conflicts – this accesses every impact

Bennett ‘8  (John, Defense News, “JFCOM Releases Study on Future Threats”, 12-4, http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=3850158)

The study predicts future U.S. forces' missions will range "…e based on the serious implications for homeland security alone," said the report.

Pakistani loose nukes causes global war

Pitt, 9- a New York Times writer and internationally bestselling author of two books: "War on Iraq: What Team Bush Doesn't Want You to Know" and "The Greatest Sedition Is Silence." (5/8/09, William, “Unstable Pakistan Threatens the World,” http://www.arabamericannews.com/news/index.php?mod=article&cat=commentary&article=2183)

But a suicide bomber in Pakistan rammed a car packed with explosives … appears to be gravely serious about addressing the situation. So should we all.

Advantage 2: Terrorism

The AQAP is planning a massive terrorist attack- this year is key

Benson 1/30/12 (Al Qaeda benefits from Yemen turmoil By CNN's Pam Benson January 30th, 2012 http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/30/aqap-benefits-from-turmoil-in-yemen/)

When President Barack Obama told Americans last … in addition to this hard policy of fighting," Green said.

Airstrikes on AQAP’s leadership have failed – the organization is strong and is key to global Al Qaeda

Roggio 12-23 (Bill, "AQAP leaders' brother reported killed in US drone strike," The Long War Journal, www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2011/12/aqap_leaders_brother.php)

Since December 2009, some of the top leaders of …and the export of jihad to neighboring countries."

Special forces key – trust, intelligence, and recruitment

Paulhus 11 (Matthew, "Beyond Afghanistan and Pakistan: Responding to Al-Qaeda's Threat in Yemen and Africa," Countering Al-Qaeda's Ideology: Re-Assessing US Policy Ten Years After 9/11, Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies Task Force Rhttps://digital.lib.washington.edu/researchworks/bitstream/handle/1773/16495/Task%20Force%20O%202011.pdf?sequence=1)

Build trust with governments and local people. …, stable, and capable of addressing their own issues.

The plan’s engagement with Tribal leaders is key to solve

Green 11 - Soref fellow @ The Washington Institute. Served with the U.S. Navy and State Department in Afghanistan and a tour with the U.S. Navy in Iraq.   [Daniel Green (Working on a province-by-province examination of AQAP operations in Yemen), “The American Moment in Yemen,” Fikra Forum, April 18, 2011, pg. http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/]

If the United States adopts a new approach to Yemen following … launch attacks against the United States.

They can get nuclear weapons

McVeigh ‘10 [Karen, "WikiLeaks cables: Yemen radioactive stocks' were easy al-Qaida target," The Guardian, December 19,http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/dec/19/wikileaks-cables-yemen-al-qaida]

A senior government official in Yemen warned US diplomats … is clean, how will people go back there", he said.

Extinction

Ayson 10, Robert Ayson, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, 2010 (“After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)

But these two nuclear worlds—a non-state actor nuclear attack and a catastrophic interstate …. grow, although it must be admitted that any preemption would probably still meet with a devastating response.

Al-Shabab is joining the AQAP in Yemen- now is key

Straziuso 2/23/12 (Jason Straziuso, Associated Press Somalia: A year of progress, as 300 al-Shabab flee http://articles.boston.com/2012-02-23/news/31092131_1_shabab-somalia-rashid-abdi/2)

A year ago, Somalia’s government controlled only a small slice …al-Shabab has been significantly weakened.

Even a slight strengthening of al-Qaeda in Yemen will cause terrorist control of the Gulf of Aden – collapses global trade

Yuriditsky 11 – Associate of the Institute for Gulf Affairs (Lev, 09/28, “Yemen's Chaos - August 2011,” http://yuriditsky.blogspot.com/2011/09/yemens-chaos-august-2011.html)

Towards the end of July, the leader of AQAP, Nasir al Wuhayshi, … Al Shabaab’s reach can make for a particularly challenging situation.

That triggers multiple extinction scenarios

Panzner 8 – faculty at the New York Institute of Finance, 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets who has worked in New York and London for HSBC, Soros Funds, ABN Amro, Dresdner Bank, and JPMorgan Chase (Michael, “Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse,” p. 136-138)

Continuing calls for curbs on the flow of finance and trade … Western societies as the beginnings of a new world war.

Advantage 3: Iran

Advantage 3 is Iran:

Current US operations have alienated tribes – political engagement is key to rebuild ties

Foust 12/30 (Joshua Foust - Joshua Foust is a fellow at the American Security Project and the author of Afghanistan Journal: Selections from Registan.net. The Atlantic Home Monday, Unaccountable Killing Machines: The True Cost of U.S. Drones, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/12/unaccountable-killing-machines-the-true-cost-of-us-drones/250661/)

Officials often portray the global expansion of deadly drone …of the drones we use to wantonly kill people around the planet.

Iran is using this as an opportunity to establish its influence in Yemen

Onassis 2/2/12 (Chiara, Iran meddles in Yemen’s internal affairs, http://bikyamasr.com/55762/iran-meddles-in-yemens-internal-affairs/)

SANA’A: Yemen’s Southern Separation Movement founder, Nasser al-Noba, revealed in an interview with the Asharq Alawsat newspaper that Iran was meddling in Yemen’s internal … such as a strategic position in the Arabic Peninsula.

Scenario 1: Israel

That influence allows Iran to attack Israel

Onassis 2/20/12 (Chiara, Yemen’s al-Houthis support Syria’s Assad, say reports, http://bikyamasr.com/57874/yemens-al-houthis-support-syrias-assad-say-reports/ Sectarianism violence across Yemen increasing.

SANA’A: Reports coming from Yemen’s northern …machine of war,” said an analyst from the Abaad center.

Yemen is key to Iranian access to the red sea

UPI 2/15/12 (Yemen intercepts Iranian ship with weapons, http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2012/02/15/Yemen-intercepts-Iranian-ship-with-weapons/UPI-63061329332660/)

SANAA, Yemen, Feb. 15 (UPI) -- Yemen has intercepted ..Canal and an international oil route as well as Israel.

Nuclear winter.

Morgan, ‘9

[Dennis Ray, Professor of Current Affairs @ Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, South Korea, “World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race”, Futures, Volume 41, Issue 10, December 2009, Pages 683-693, ScienceDirect]

In a remarkable website on nuclear war, Carol Moore asks … taking a savage toll upon the environment and fragile ecosphere as well.

Scenario 2 is Civil War

Iran will cause a Yemeni civil war

Finn 2/22/12 (Tom, Voting Saleh out, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/02/22/voting_saleh_out

The United States is fearful that Saada, a wild, rugged, … loss of government control over large parts of the country."

That collapses Saudi Arabia

LeVine 11 – adjunct professor of energy and security at the School of Securities Studies at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service, contributing editor at Foreign Policy magazine, author of The Oil and the Glory (Steve, 03/21, “Back to Saudi's fault lines,” http://oilandglory.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/03/21/back_to_saudis_fault_lines)

The oil balance is back on precarious footing. The shift … massive oil reserves and production underpin global price stability.

Oil prices would soar – industries shut down

Babej 3/29/11 - Contributor to Forbes [Marc E. Babej, “A Saudi Oil Supply Disruption-The Ultimate Marketing Crisis Scenario,” Forbes, 3/29/2011 @ 01:48PM |pg.  http://www.forbes.com/sites/marcbabej/2011/03/29/a-saudi-oil-supply-disruption-the-ultimate-marketing-crisis-scenario/]

And still: in 2011, the term “unlikely” doesn’t quite carry the weight it used to. … for products containing oil derivatives. * Vance Scott - Partner at A.T. Kearney who leads the Energy and Chemicals Practice in the Americas.

That causes Global energy wars and expanded coal use

King 08 – Researcher @ Center for New American Security [Neil King, Jr. (Columnist for the Wall Street Journal), “Peak Oil: A Survey of Security Concerns,” CNAS Energy Security Visionaries Series, Center for New American Security, JULY 2008, pg. www.aspousa.org/aspousa4/.../_CNAS_King_Peak_Oil_WorkingPaper.pdf]

Many commentators in the United States and abroad have begun to … would help the pubic and their elected leaders take the wise steps and avoid the rash ones. Pg. 13-15

Expanded Coal use causes warming and massive species fallout- risks extinction

Hansen 09 - Director of Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies [James Hansen (Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences @  Columbia University and Ph.D. in Physics  from the University of Iowa),  “Coal-fired power stations are death factories. Close them,” The Observer, Sunday 15 February 2009,  pg. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/feb/15/james-hansen-power-plants-coal]

A year ago, I wrote to Gordon Brown asking him to place a moratorium … that would be committed to extinction if carbon dioxide rose another 100 ppm.

Scenario 3 is Proxy Wars

Direct US engagement with tribal leaders is key to resolve Iranian hegemony and a full scale Iran-Saudi war

Phillips 11 -  Fellow for Middle Eastern Affairs @ Heritage Foundation [James Phillips, “What the President Must Do About Yemen,” The Heritage Foundation, WebMemo #3204, March 24, 2011, pg. http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/03/what-the-president-must-do-about-yemen]

Engage the opposition. American diplomats and intelligence officers … that Yemen will become a failed state that AQAP can exploit.

Iran Saudi war escalates

Ash Jain, visiting fellow, 8-2011, “Nuclear Weapons and Iran’s Global Ambitions: Troubling Scenarios.” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus114.pdf

As it looks for plausibly deniable ways to intimidate and subvert …at some point—though this could be complicated in the face of a nuclear Iran.

Unchecked Iran guarantees nuclear miscalculation. 

Ben-Meir ‘7 

[Alon, Professor of international relations @ Center for Global Affair, New York University, “Ending Iranian Defiance,” New York (UPI) Feb 06, 2007, pg. http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Ending_Iranian_Defiance_999.html]

That Iran stands today able to challenge or even defy the United States … of the severe consequences of not halting its nuclear program.

CMSE assistance prevents conflict escalation – solving internal disputes

Lightsey 10 – Major assigned to the JFK Special Warfare Center and School’s 1st Special Warfare Training Group. Combat tours include on to Qatar as commander of a CMSE that had elements across Pakistan, Tajikistan and Yemen. [Major Ross F. Lightsey Sr.,“PERSISTENT ENGAGEMENT: Civil Military Support Elements [CMSE] Operating in CENTCOM,” Special Warfare | May-June 2010 (Vol. 23, Issue 3) Pg. http://afpakwar.com/blog/archives/6888

Nonkinetic strategy - In a 2009 article in Foreign Affairs, Secretary of Defense … and confidence that the U.S. government will do the right thing at the right time.