T- Democracy Assistance 1nc
A. Interpretation – Democracy Assistance is about financing projects and programs
TOORNSTRA 10 European Parliament Office for Promotion of Parliamentary Democracy Director
[Dick, OPPD Coordinators: Dick Toornstra, Katarzyna Grzybowska-Walecka, Rabea Pfeifer, “Getting Acquainted: Setting the Stage for Democracy Assistance,” August, http://www.europarl.europa.eu/pdf/oppd/Page_8/getting_acquainted_web.pdf]
One phenomenon that has accompanied all democratisation processes of the last …numerous non-democratic or democratising states.
B. violation – the aff is just a diplomatic change.
C. VOTE NEG –
- LIMITS – they explode the topic. Projects and groups are finite and we can support them topically. Expanding to include diplomatic changes kills all limits.
2. NEG GROUND ON THIS TOPIC – nothing links to changing the stance of the US when the only thing that the aff has to do is be pro-democracy.
1nc Fifth Fleet CP
The United States federal government should mandate the presence of the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain.
1nc SKFTA
SKFTA will pass – votes are coming around
Hooper 9-10 [Molly K., writer for The Hill, “Obama-backed trade pacts could be heavy lift for House GOP” http://thehill.com/homenews/house/180751-obama-backed-trade-pacts-could-be-heavy-lift-for-house-gop]
And anti-trade interest groups are poised to pounce on then-GOP candidates … a formal whip count though deputy whips have been sounding out lawmakers informally.
Capitals key.
Wharton 11 [Wharton School’s Online Business Journal – Editorial Post – including the Deupty Dean & Executive Director of the University of Pennsylvania’s Business School, U.S.-South Korea Trade Pact: A Turning Point for American Exports?, http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=2671]
The Tea Party Factor During the fall election season, some Democratic … foundation of Republican economic and foreign policy for decades.
Pentagon and Bahrain lobby backlash to the plan – any plan has to go through them – extremely powerful
Turse 11 [Nick Turse is a fellow at Harvard University's Radcliffe Institute, “The Arab lobby,” 4-6-11, http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/03/2011323112135472877.html]
The relationship represented by that bullet (or so many others like it) between Bahrain, … as to which side of history it's actually on.
SKFTA key to the alliance – solves Korean instability
Hubbard 11 [Thomas, Senior Director for Asia, McLarty Associates and Former Ambassador to South Korea, 4-7-11, Congressional Documents and Publications, “House Ways and Means Subcommittee on Trade Hearing - Brady Announces Third in a Series of Three Hearings on the Pending, Job-Creating Trade Agreements: South Korea Trade Agreement”]
The United States-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS) is a critical step forward … as a new anchor for our longstanding leadership position in a rapidly changing Asia.
Korean instability risks rapid escalation to nuclear war
STRATFOR 10 [“North Korea, South Korea: The Military Balance on the Peninsula,” 5-26-10, http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100526_north_korea_south_korea_military_balance_peninsula]
But no one, of course, is interested in another war on the Korean ..,. in the way they might be if the situation escalates much further.
Passage sparks global trade
Hill 07 (Christopher, US Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs assistant secretary, “The United States-South Korea FTA: The Foreign Policy Implications.”, 6-13, http://seoul.usembassy.gov/413_061407.html)
Fourth, and finally, the KORUS FTA will give impetus to …Republic of Korea’s increasingly positive role in the world.
FLIPS the aff & causes extinction
PANZNER 08 Faculty – New York Institute of Finance. Specializes in Global Capital Markets. MA Columbia
[Michael J. Panzner, Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse, Revised and Updated Edition [Paperback], p. 137-138]
Continuing calls for curbs on the flow of finance and trade will inspire … and Western societies as the beginnings of a new world war.
1NC Saudi
Current US democracy rhetoric concedes to Saudi interests – they won’t tolerate US-imposed democratic meddling
Karasik 8/1/11 (Theodore, Director of Research and Development at the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis in Dubai and Beirut. “A Conversation with Dr. Thedore Karasik of INEGMA on the ‘Arab Spring’.” Saudi-US Relations Information Service, August 1, 2011. http://www.susris.com/2011/08/01/a-conversation-with-dr-theodore-karasik-of-inegma-on-the-arab-spring/.)
SUSRIS: Let’s talk about the trajectory of events in the Gulf. What would you focus on … and Washington needs to remember that the Arab world will reform, but at their own pace and scope.
It drives Saudis to proliferate
Guzansky 8/1/11 (Yoel, research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University. "TEHRAN TESTS SAUDIS' NERVE ON NUKES", LEXIS, SRM)
UNTIL recently it appeared that US security guarantees would be a …reactors at a cost of more than $US300 billion.
Impact’s nuke terror
Blank 03 (Stephen, “Saudi Arabia's nuclear gambit” Asia Times http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/EK07Ak01.html)
Obviously, that kind of transformation of the proliferation situation raises … the crossroads of radicalism and technology becomes that much more real
Extinction
Sid Ahmed 04 (Mohamed, Al-Ahram Political Analyst, Éxtinction!,” http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm)
What would be the consequences of a nuclear attack by terrorists? …pollution infects the whole planet, we will all be losers.
1NC- NED
The European Instrument for Democracy and Human Rights should offer all necessary funding to the National Endowment for Democracy to provide democracy assistance for an institutional dialogue between the government of Bahrain and the opposition, where it endorses, as a starting point for reform, the agenda presented by the crown prince and accepted by Al-Wifaq, and for provide support for human rights protections for the opposition.
The CP solves better - EU-NED coop prevents backlash to US assistance
Gershman ‘6 – President of the National Endowment for Democracy [Carl Gershman, “The Backlash against Democracy Assistance,” Testimony to the Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate, Jun 8, 2006, pg. http://www.ned.org/about/board/meet-our-president/archived-remarks-and-presentations/060806]
The new repressive climate in certain states has in fact highlighted the benefits of non-… of democracy assistance and also leverage additional resources.
Democracy cooperation stabilizes the Black Sea region – It’s a conduit for instability throughout Eurasia
Garber ‘8 - Deputy Assistant Secretary of State [Judy Garber, “Transatlantic Perspectives on Black Sea Region: U.S. seeks to promote cooperation among countries in the region,” Keynote Address at the Woodrow Wilson Center Conference, 10 June 2008, pg. http://www.america.gov/st/texttrans-english/2008/June/20080612162948eaifas0.3606836.html#ixzz1S5cj0Z00]
The Black Sea lies at a strategic crossroads of geography and culture, where Russia intersects … with the Caspian basin, Central Asia, and the broader Middle East.
Boom goes the dynamite
Amineh ‘3 – Professor of International Relations @ Webster University [Mehdi Parvizi Amineh, Ph.D (Ph. D in Poli Sci @ University of Amsterdam & Senior research fellow and Programme director of the Energy Programme Asia @ International Institute for Asian Studies) “Globalisation, Geopolitics and Energy Security in Central Eurasia and the Caspian Region,” Hand-out of lecture held on June 19 2003, Clingendael International Energy Programme, pg. http://www.clingendael.nl/ciep/events/20030619/20030619_amineh.pdf]
The increasing involvement of the US, the EU, Russia, China, Iran, and Turkey, … the war on terrorism in Afghanistan, and the war and crisis in Iraq.
1NC- Fifth Fleet
The fifth fleet won’t move. It’s their job to fix instability in the region. They won’t leave because of it.
We won’t leave Bahrain, if we did we’d go somewhere else, and other military installations prevent your impacts
The Australian, 2011.
(Hugh Tomlinson. “US Fleet may quit troubled Bahrain.” 7-21-2011. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/us-fleet-may-quit-troubled-bahrain/story-e6frg6so-1226098580227)
Sources in Washington and the Gulf have confirmed a growing consensus around the idea … providing a crucial bulwark against Iranian influence in the region
Link goes the wrong direction. The aff’s regime change will mean the US gets booted.
Cooley and Nexon, 2011.
(Alexander and Daniel. 4-5-2011. ALEXANDER COOLEY is Associate Professor of Political Science at Barnard College and a member of Columbia University's Arnold A. Saltzman Institute for War and Peace Studies. DANIEL H. NEXON is Associate Professor in the School of Foreign Service and the Department of Government at Georgetown University. “Bahrain’s Base Politics.” Foreign Affiars. http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=2)
On February 14 of this year, inspired by the movements in Tunisia and Egypt, Bahrainis …. But the "base politics" of Bahrain are part of a broader pattern.
We’d be fine – your ev assumes an old strategic model
Koplovsky, 2006.
(Michael. Deputy Chief of Mission @ U.S. Embassy Lusaka, Career Foreign Service Office. 10-23-2006. “Precipitating the Inevitable: the Surprisingly Benign Impact of Losing Basing Rights in Bahrain.” http://govwin.com/knowledge/ precipitating-inevitable-surprisingly-benign-impact/18387)
Large, permanent, forward U.S. bases (MOBs) are falling out of favor. Since the ..or less constant U.S. deterrent and operational presence.26
Local conflict won’t escalate
Takeyh et al 7 Steven A. Cook (fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations) Ray Takeyh (fellows at the Council on Foreign Relations) and Suzanne Maloney (senior fellow at Saban Center) June 28 2007 “Why the Iraq war won't engulf the Mideast”, International Herald Tribune
Finally, there is no precedent for Arab leaders to commit forces … to contain its civil strife and prevent local conflicts from enveloping the entire Middle East.
Great powers won’t get involved.
Ferguson 6—Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History @ Harvard—(Niall “This might not be a world war, but it still needs a sense of urgency” July 23rd 2006, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/3626545/This-might-not-be-a-world-war%2C-but-it-still-needs-a-sense-of-urgency.html)
Such language can for now, at least safely be dismissed as hyperbole. This crisis is not … be finished in a matter of days. That, at any rate, is clearly the assumption
Even if Iran becomes more aggressive with nuclear weapons, it won’t engage in large scale conflicts
Ochmanek, 07 - director, Project AIR FORCE Strategy and Doctrine Program, RAND Corporation (David, Coping with Iran: Confrontation, Containment, or Engagement? A Conference Report” http://www.rand.org/pubs/conf_proceedings/2007/RAND_CF237.pdf)
It is also possible that, over time, the security provided …United States from seeking to take down the enemy regime.
No risk of resource wars - all the hotspots will disappear - apocalyptic scenarios are invented to justify military spending.
Thomas P. M. Barnett, 3/23/2009. Visiting scholar at the University of Tennessee's Howard Baker Center, former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College, AM in Regional Studies: Russia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia and a PhD in Political Science from Harvard. “Threat of Great Power War Recedes,” Korea Times, http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/opinon/2009/03/137_41779.html.
While difficult to keep in mind amidst today's economic nationalism, … will effectively disappear over the next half-decade.
1NC Adv 2- Iraq Instability
Text- The Iraqi government, specifically Al-Maliki should propose and accept the stationing of 10,000 troops in Iraq
Alt caus—lack of territorial settlement makes instability inevitable
Middle East Report 08 (10/2International Crisis Group, "Oil for Soil," http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5750&l=1)
A long-festering conflict over Kirkuk and other disputed territories … violent strife over unsettled claims in a fragmented polity governed by chaos and fear.
No regional war-the region is resilient and manages conflicts, empirically proven
The Nation 07 [9/24, “Why We Must Leave Iraq,” editorial. http://www.thenation.com/doc/20070924/editors]
As to the concern that a complete withdrawal will lead to regional war, … control their allies in Iraq once US forces withdraw.
Civil war won’t spread, regional actors are interested in stability
Drum 07 [Kevin Drum, “Political Animal,” September 12, 2007, pg. http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2007_09/012050.php]
Beyond that, though, there are the specifics of the MEIF …. Syria will follow Iran's lead. Jordan will hunker down.
History disproves escalation - no regional war has spread
Simon 07 – Senior Fellow in Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
[Steven Simon, “America and Iraq: The Case for Disengagement,” Survival, Volume 49, Issue 1 March 2007 , pages 61 – 84Informaworld]
A related question is whether the disengagement of US …. But it should not be in Iraq.
The IRGC will prevent war from escalating
Taheri, 07 - Iranian dissident and former editor of Kayhan, Iran's main daily newspaper. (Amir, Gulf News, 6/13, http://angryarab.blogspot.com/2007/06/they-were-supposed-to-impose-israeli.html)
In Persian mythology, no warrior worth his salt would …, to prevent what it regards as the worst-case scenario for the regime.
Risk of miscalc low – history of avoiding conflict
Jeff Huber, Commander, U.S. Navy (Retired), “Will Generals Stop Iran War?” 2-26-2007 (http://zenhuber.blogspot.com/2007/02/will-generals-stop-iran-war.html)
As the U.S. increases the number of ships deployed … that it has been since the Tanker War in the 80s.
U.S. strength limits likelihood of accidental war
Michael Rubin, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and editor of the Middle East Quarterly, “Should Regime Change in Iran be Part of U.S. Foreign Policy?” 5-3-2007 (http://www.cfr.org/publication/13199/)
Criticism regarding carrier group dispatch is misplaced. … red lines aids transparency and reduces the risk of accidental conflict.
Alt caus – Iraq
David Ignatius, Columnist for the Washington Post, 9/16/200“Cooling The Clash With Iran,” http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/14/AR2007091402051.html.
The most dangerous flash point is still Iraq. Military forces … Iran's ambassador to Baghdad that "no Quds Force officer is going to be safe in Iraq."
Risk of a strike is really low.
Global Insight, 2-2-2010
[Selin Gunduzler, “U.S. Ups Sanctions Talk on Diplomatic Tour as Crisis Brews in Iran's Banking Sector”, 2010, L/N]
Although much speculation in recent years has centred on the … than direct military confrontation.
2. Turn – American interference in Arab political systems will result in crushed credibility in the region and an inability for the US to later help in the area’s issues
Cook, 5 – Project Director of the Task Force and a Next Generation Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, where he specializes in Arab politics and U.S. Middle East policy. Previously, Dr. Cook was a Research Fellow at the Brookings Institution and Soref Research Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (Steven A., “In Support of Arab Democracy: Why and How?” 2005, Report of an Independent Task Force)
Critics of an American effort to promote and encourage reform in the Middle East argue … U.S. policies in the region across the board.
3. Scholarships refutes credibility as a factor in IR
Fettweis 10 [Christopher J., fifth year doctoral student in the University of Maryland's Department of Government and Politics. His primary interests include US foreign and national security policies. His dissertation, currently titled The Geopolitics of Energy and the Obsolescence of Major War, focuses on the relationship between oil and conflict. Mr. Fettweis has a BA in History from the University of Notre Dame, Threat and Anxiety in US Foreign Policy, April 2010 Survival, 52:2, 59 - 82]
For individuals as well as states, pathologies - mistaken or incorrect beliefs that inspire irrational action - create their own reality and drive behaviour accordingly. In individuals, pathologies reside in the mind, while state-level pathologies exist as shared irrational beliefs among leaders and the public. Strategic pathologies, then, are incorrect beliefs that drive destructive, or at least counterproductive, state behaviour. The United States suffers from several.
The credibility imperative is a clear example, one that continues to have a particularly strong influence upon the United States.7 Credibility, when used in policy debates, is a code word for the prestige and reputation of a state; it is, in Henry Kissinger's words, 'the coin with which we conduct our foreign policy', an intangible asset that helps states influence the actions of others.8 In periods of high credibility, policymakers believe, a state can deter and compel behaviour and accomplish goals short of war. When credibility is low, sceptical adversaries and allies may be tempted to ignore threats and promises. To national leaders, therefore, healthy credibility seems to be the equivalent of many armed divisions, and is worth protecting at almost any cost.
This belief rests on a shaky foundation, to put it mildly. Decades of scholarship have been unable to produce much evidence that high credibility helps a state achieve its goals, or that low credibility makes rivals or allies act any differently.9 Although study after study has refuted the basic assumptions of the credibility imperative, the pathology continues to affect policymaking in the new century, inspiring new instances of irrational, unnecessary action. The imperative, like many foreign-policy pathologies, typically inspires belligerence in those under its spell.10 Credibility is always maintained through action, usually military action, no matter how small the issue or large the odds.
Support for democratic groups signals American weakness, not influence—destroys credibility
Bar ’11, director of studies at the Institute for Policy and Strategy (Shmuel, America’s Fading Middle East Influence, Hoover, 4/1/11, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/73161)
The Arab revolts and democratization. It is ironic that the Obama … threats from Iran, for these regimes therefore has been dramatically degraded.
No chance of Israeli strikes now – multiple reasons
Gordon, et al, 2-17, David Gordon is head of research at Eurasia Group. Cliff Kupchan is director of the firm's Eurasia practice. Thursday, February 17, 2011, (Foreign Policy, Odds are Israel won't attack Iran, http://eurasia.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/17/odds_are_israel_wont_attack_iran)
"You don't want a messianic apocalyptic cult controlling atomic bombs," … elsewhere, to what it considers the more imminent threats of Gaza, Lebanon, and Egypt.
Arab Spring instability prevents them from attacking.
Jerusalem Post 7/18/11 (Crowley: Claims Israel to attack Iran soon are not credible, http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=229947)
Former US State Department spokesman tweets that "Arab Spring … that Israel will probably attack Iran in September.
No strikes and arab states are unwilling to use strikes
Bolton, 6-23-11
[John R., Senior Fellow, American Enterprise Institute, “Prepared Statement of John R. Bolton Senior Fellow, American Enterprise Institute before the Committee on Foreign Affairs United States House of Representatives on,” http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/112/bol062311.pdf]
“An Israeli decision to use force, if it comes to that, will be … possible Iranian belligerence becomes that much more threatening and dangerous.11
