Plan
The United States federal government should expand its civil military support element throughout Yemen to provide local governance assistance.
ADV 1- Military Group Think
Advantage 1 – Military Group Think
Yemen is the test case – Civil Military Support-Elements should be expanded as part of an integrated strategy- DOD must make the lead
Kotlow 3/31/11 - Visiting Senior Service College Fellow at The Washington Institute. Former Defense and Army Attache at the U.S. Embassy in Yemen and Lebanon [Colonel Kazimierz "Kaz" Kotlow (Former political/military advisor to the Multinational Force (MNF) Commander in Iraq.) “Countering Extremism in Yemen: Beyond Interagency Cooperation,” Small Wars Journal, March 31, 2011]
Extremism, especially violent extremism, …. That expectation can help make this approach more systemic and less personality dependent.
Yemen’s key- the approach will be the model
Mitchell 8/1/11 - Foreign Service Officer with USAID. Assigned to a tour in Yemen (80s) [Robert E. Mitchell, “Yemen: Testing a New Coordinated Approach to Preventive Counterinsurgency,” Small Wars Journal, August 1, 2011]
An American-designed strategy attempts ….model potentially exportable to other states in varying stages of failure and where American anti-terrorism programs are not yet active.
Military groupthink occurring now¬- leads to overemphasis on combat operations
Howard 04 – Major in the British Army [Major James R. Howard, “Preparing for War, Stumbling to Peace: Planning for Post-conflict Operations in Iraq,” A Monograph, pg. smallwarsjournal.com/documents/howard.pdf]
The new doctrine of Rapid, Decisive Operations …interventionist and nation building operations with disdain.80 pg. 23-24
This makes escalatory warfare inevitable- brink is now- attacks are coming
Chossudovsky 10 - Professor of Economics @ University of Ottawa [Michel Chossudovsky (Director of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), “Preparing for World War III, Targeting Iran,” Global Research, August 1, 2010, pg. http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?aid=20403&context=va]
Humanity is at a dangerous crossroads. …. Venezuela and Cuba are also the object of US threats.
These aggressive military involvements are empirically proven
Schneider 03 – Director, U.S. Air Force Counterproliferation Center, Maxwell Air Force Base [Barry R. Schneider, “Deterring International Rivals From War and Escalation,” Know Thy Enemy: Profiles of Adversary Leaders and Their Strategic Cultures, Edited By: Barry R. Schneider and Jerrold M. Post, July 2003 (Second edition)]
Decisions taken during periods of … morality of their decisions. Pg. 8-9
CMSE solves- two internal links
a. Interagency- It creates substantive interagency relations between the DOD and other branches
Lightsey 10 – Major assigned to the JFK Special Warfare Center and School’s 1st Special Warfare Training Group. Combat tours include on to Qatar as commander of a CMSE that had elements across Pakistan, Tajikistan and Yemen. [Major Ross F. Lightsey Sr.,“PERSISTENT ENGAGEMENT: Civil Military Support Elements [CMSE] Operating in CENTCOM,” Special Warfare | May-June 2010 (Vol. 23, Issue 3) Pg. http://afpakwar.com/blog/archives/6888
In ongoing irregular conflicts, the civil-military support element, ….reaching out to those neighboring regions.
b. Internally- trains military personnel civilian skills necessary to change mindsets
Shemella 06 - Program Manager for Combating Terrorism @ The Center for Civil-Military Relations, Naval Postgraduate School [PAUL SHEMELLA, “Interagency Coordination: The Other Side of CIMIC,” Small Wars and Insurgencies, Vol. 17, No. 4, 449–457, December 2006
Although CIMIC has become a term of art, it is …often than constructive cooperation. Pg. 449-451
Cooperation attempts are occurring now- only the plan makes them substantive
Shemella 06 - Program Manager for Combating Terrorism @ The Center for Civil-Military Relations, Naval Postgraduate School [PAUL SHEMELLA, “Interagency Coordination: The Other Side of CIMIC,” Small Wars and Insurgencies, Vol. 17, No. 4, 449–457, December 2006
Decision-makers can create …governments require for success. Pg. 452-456 *CIMIC – Civil Military Cooperation
ADV 2- Family Feud
Advantage 2 – Family Feud
Al-Ahmer and Saleh are battling for tribal support - The family feud risks a civil war
Craig 3/1/11 [Iona Craig, “Yemen parties jostle for allegiance of the tribes,” The Irish Times - Tuesday, March, 1, 2011, pg. http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2011/0301/1224291077862.html]
POLITICAL DIALOGUE ground to …. the time for dialogue was now over.
Tribes are coalition building with the al Ahmar family to violently resist Saleh- the US will ignore this
Gundun 8/4/11 - U.S. spokesperson for Yemen’s Coordinating Council for the Youth Revolution of Change (CCYRC). [James Gundun, “Yemeni Tribes Unify Under Western Darkness,” Palestine Chronicle,” 17:02 08/04/2011, pg. http://www.palestinechronicle.com/view_article_details.php?id=17020]
As this operation would provoke a new round of hostilities, …. committed themselves past the point of Saleh’s return.
This silence radicalizes the opposition – US must actively support good governance
Naouss 4/1/11 – Research Associate @ United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and Communications Coordinator @ Carnegie Middle East Center. [Robert Naouss (Masters in history and international relations from 'Université Saint Joseph') “How Reluctance in Libya and Yemen Bolsters Al-Qaeda,” Policymic, April 2011, Pg. http://www.policymic.com/articles/how-reluctance-in-libya-and-yemen-bolsters-al-qaeda]
The present situation in Yemen … best interests of the world’s super powers only when it suits them!
There’s no substitute for a US response – political stance is important
Gundun 7/19/11 - U.S. spokesperson for Yemen’s Coordinating Council for the Youth Revolution of Change (CCYRC). [James Gundun, “West, Saleh Unite Against Yemen’s Transnational Council,” The Trench, July 19, 2011, pg. http://hadalzone.blogspot.com/2011/07/west-saleh-unite-against-yemens.html]
Once again Washington has tasked London …. to maintain and potentially increase U.S. military influence in Yemen.
al-Ahmar tribal alliance risks civil war
Boone 6/2/11 [Jeb Boone, “Feud within key Yemen tribe could tear nation apart,” Los Angeles Times, June 02, 2011, pg. http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jun/02/world/la-fg-yemen-tribe-20110603]
If poverty-stricken Yemen collapses, …. a great deal harder to reverse," Johnsen said.
*Yemen is a chokepoint – global oil prices will skyrocket
Markman 4/5/11 - Journalist and Portfolio manager for The Markman Portfolios [Jon D. Markman, “Rising Oil Prices: Is Yemen Next?,” Seeking Alpha, April 5, 2011, pg. http://seekingalpha.com/article/261969-rising-oil-prices-is-yemen-next]
Going forward, however, the next culprit in ….. But also you have one more major oil exporter that is then not exporting.
*It will destabilize Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province - Oil prices will skyrocket
STRATFOR 4/21/11 [“Islamist Militancy in a Pre- and Post-Saleh Yemen,” April 21, 2011 | 0859 GMT, pg. http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110420-islamist-militancy-pre-and-post-saleh-yemen]
The real heavyweight in Yemen …. it also seemed to play to the Saudi agenda in channeling jihadist efforts toward the al-Houthi threat.
*It risks the mother of all oil shocks – Production outages could last for years
Atuanya 3/10/11 – Consultant geologist and geophysicist with about 3 decades of activity in the energy sector [Dennis U. Atuanya (B.Sc. Hons (Geology), M.Sc. (Geophysics)), “Global Crude Oil Prices: The Lingering Uncertainty,” Seeking Alpha, March 10, 2011, pg. http://seekingalpha.com/article/257535-global-crude-oil-prices-the-lingering-uncertainty]
In terms of global reserves, the … possibly the "mother of all."
Oil price will reach $300 in the near term – Critical industries will shutdown
Babej 3/29/11 - Contributor to Forbes [Marc E. Babej, “A Saudi Oil Supply Disruption-The Ultimate Marketing Crisis Scenario,” Forbes, 3/29/2011 @ 01:48PM |pg. http://www.forbes.com/sites/marcbabej/2011/03/29/a-saudi-oil-supply-disruption-the-ultimate-marketing-crisis-scenario/]
And still: in 2011, the term “… Energy and Chemicals Practice in the Americas.
Global energy wars & expanded coal use
King 08 – Researcher @ Center for New American Security [Neil King, Jr. (Columnist for the Wall Street Journal), “Peak Oil: A Survey of Security Concerns,” CNAS Energy Security Visionaries Series, Center for New American Security, JULY 2008, pg. www.aspousa.org/aspousa4/.../_CNAS_King_Peak_Oil_WorkingPaper.pdf]
Many commentators in the United States ….wise steps and avoid the rash ones. Pg. 13-15
AND, US-China war risks World War III
Starke 09 – Colonel in the US Army [Colonel Timothy J. Starke, “China’s Military and Space Transformation: Implications for U.S. and Northeast-Asia,” Strategy Research Project, 24-03-2009, pg. http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA500675&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf]
Prospects of violent conflict ….U.S. mistrust of China’s true intentions. Pg. 1
AND, Arctic conflict will be a US-Russia nuclear war
Matthews 09 [Owen Matthews, “The coldest war: Russia and U.S. face off over Arctic resources,” Daily Mail, Last updated at 10:08 AM on 19th May 2009, pg. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1184291/The-coldest-war-Russia-U-S-face-Arctic-resources.html]
The year is 2020, and, from the Middle East to …. U.S. missile defence shields and destroy entire cities.
Expanded Coal use causes warming and massive species fallout- risks extinction
Hansen 09 - Director of Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies [James Hansen (Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences @ Columbia University and Ph.D. in Physics from the University of Iowa), “Coal-fired power stations are death factories. Close them,” The Observer, Sunday 15 February 2009, pg. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/feb/15/james-hansen-power-plants-coal]
A year ago, I wrote to Gordon Brown asking him …. extinction if carbon dioxide rose another 100 ppm.
CMSE’s governance assistance prevents conflict escalation – Ethiopia proves
Lightsey 10 – Major assigned to the JFK Special Warfare Center and School’s 1st Special Warfare Training Group. Combat tours include on to Qatar as commander of a CMSE that had elements across Pakistan, Tajikistan and Yemen. [Major Ross F. Lightsey Sr.,“PERSISTENT ENGAGEMENT: Civil Military Support Elements [CMSE] Operating in CENTCOM,” Special Warfare | May-June 2010 (Vol. 23, Issue 3) Pg. http://afpakwar.com/blog/archives/6888
Nonkinetic strategy - In a 2009 article in Foreign Affairs….the right thing at the right time.
Our governance assistance is key - It resolves the underlying grievances that will facilitate conflict escalation
Walsh 10 - Civil affairs team leader in the Pacific Command supporting 97th Civil Affairs Battalion (Airborne) [Captain Sean P. Walsh (deployed to Iraq in 2007-2008 as a member of the 2d Stryker Cavalry Regiment and served as a rifle platoon leader and civil military planner.), “Divorce Counseling: Civil Affairs Proponency under a New Support Paradigm,” MILITARY REVIEW, November-December 2010]
Described by the Army as “gun-toting diplomats…. of pursuing a grievance.”4 pg. 71
We provide a micro-scale diplomatic model that solves
Lightsey 08 – Major assigned to the JFK Special Warfare Center and School’s 1st Special Warfare Training Group. Combat tours include on to Qatar as commander of a CMSE that had elements across Pakistan, Tajikistan and Yemen. [Major Ross F. Lightsey Sr., “Civil Affairs Support to the Surge,” Special Warfare, March-April 2008, Volume 21 Issue 2]
DIME principle - Commanders in the … and to jump-start local economies. Pg. 21
Brink now
NYT 6/1/11 Nasser Arrabyee is a journalist and human rights activist based in Sana'a, Yemen Robert F. Worth is the Beirut bureau chief for The Times “Fighting Spreads in Yemen, Raising Fear of Civil War” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/02/world/middleeast/02yemen.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all
Yemen — Yemen edged closer to … He is trying to make us feel like we are Gaza.”
Independently, it also risks gas imbalance-the impact is extinction
Gokay 8/4/11 - Professor of international relations @ Keele University [Bulent Gokay, “Past peak oil - life after cheap fossil fuels,” Public Service Europe, 04 August 2011, pg. http://www.publicserviceeurope.com/article/705/past-peak-oil-life-after-cheap-fossil-fuels]
Without volume energy - we …. various gasses in earth's atmosphere.
US-Russian war causes extinction
Starr 10 - Director of Clinical Laboratory Science Program @ University of Missouri [Steven Starr (Senior scientist @ Physicians for Social Responsibility.), “The climatic consequences of nuclear war” | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 12 March 2010, Pg. http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/op-eds/the-climatic-consequences-of-nuclear-war]
This isn't a question to be avoided. ….could kill one billion people.
