1nc—OFF #1
Their depiction of Syria is orientalist --- the 1AC’s scholarship is flawed.
Biswas 7 (Shampa, Associate Professor of Politics @ Whitman, Ph.D. – Political Science @ the University of Minnesota, M.A. – International Relations @ Maxwell School of Citizenship – Syracuse University, M.A. – Economics @ the Dehli School of Economics – University of Dehli, B.A. – Economics @ St. Stephen's College – University of Dehli, Empire and Global Public Intellectuals: Reading Edward Said as an International Relations Theorist, Millennium 36 (1) p. 117-125)
The recent resuscitation of the project of … the most fundamental and important senses of the vocation.21
Try or die.
Batur 7 (Pinar, Associate Professor of Sociology & Director of Urban Studies @ Vassar, The Heart of Violence: Global Racism, War, and Genocide, Handbook of The Sociology of Racial and Ethnic Relations, Pg. 446-447)
At the turn of the 20th century, the “Terrible … with dizzying frequency. The 21st century opened up with genocide, in Darfur.
The role of the judge should be to interrogate systems of knowledge. Expertise is not neutral.
Anand 7 (Dibyesh, Associate Professor in International Relations – Centre for the Study of Democracy @ Department of Politics and IR – University of Westminster, Western Colonial Representations of the Other, http://westminsterresearch.wmin.ac.uk/4657/1/Anand_2007_final_author.pdf)
Within the context of European imperialism, the issue … and mystery that eluded complete understanding of the Other.
1nc—OFF #2
The United States federal government should substantially increase the provision of information and communication technology including hardware, software and training only to secular Syrian political opposition groups who have been vetted by the United States.
Normal means for the aff is just Muslim Brotherhood engagement -- focusing on secular opposition groups is key to check their post-transition influence.
Rubin, 10-22-11
[Barry, director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal at Gloria-Center.org, “Why is the Obama administration propping up Syria’s Islamists?” http://dailycaller.com/2011/10/22/why-is-the-obama-administration-propping-up-syrias-islamists/]
Let’s remember that the U.S.’s goal should … United States are going to be heading toward trouble.
That causes Golan conflict, spurs terrorism and collapses regional stability.
Saab, 4-4-11
[Bilal, Ph.D. candidate at the Government and Politics Department at the University of Maryland, “Syria Goes to War,” http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/syria-goes-war-5103]
A new Syrian leadership might be …., becoming chaotic—and more lethal.
Golan conflict causes global nuclear war.
Joshi, 2K
[Sharad, Ph.D. candidate in Iinternational Relations, “Israel's Nuclear Policy: A Cost-Benefit Analysis,” Strategic Analysis March 2000 (Vol. XXIII No. 12), p. CIAO]
The Syrian chemical arsenal should be … would be ripe for a nuclear Armageddon
1nc—OFF #3
The Republic of Turkey should substantially increase the provision of information and communication technology to Syrians including hardware, software and training.
Turkey solves Syria – Assad can’t ignore their opposition
Walker 11 - Post-doctoral fellow in the Crown Center for Middle Eastern Studies @ Brandeis University [Joshua W. Walker, Ph.D. (Research fellow @ Harvard Kennedy School), “Turkey Should Wield its Power in Syria," Boston Globe, May 14, 2011, pg. http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/21043/turkey_should_wield_its_power_in_syria.html]
The stakes are especially high in Syria, which …. Turkey should deliver the same message to Syria.
Turkey has influence now, the plan devastates it.
Akyol 11 – Turkish journalist [Mustafa Akyol, “An Unlikely Trio:,” Foreign Affairs, Sept/Oct 2010, pg.http://tinyurl.com/3q3etvr]
Although Ankara was at first unsure whether it had … they need help, "Turkey becomes America's next best friend." //1nc
US action trades off with Turkey
Lobe, 8-20 [Jim, Asia Times, “The West encircles Assad,” http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MH20Ak02.html]
Despite constant pressure from neo-… at Georgetown University.
Turkish soft power stabilizes the Mideast, Caucasus and Balkans
Dessi 10 – MA in Conflict, Security and Development from King’s College – London [Andrea Dessi (BA in Middle Eastern History from the School of Oriental and African Studies), “Can Turkey Be a Source of Stability in the Middle East?,” The Heptagon Post, 18 December 2010, pg.http://www.heptagonpost.com/node/26]
Over the past decade Turkey has considerably increased … way” for the region to follow.
Balkan instability risks global nuclear war.
Scherbak 08 – Advisor to the Chair of the Parliament of Ukraine [Yuri Scherbak (President of the Institute for Sustainable Development of Ukraine), Ten Theses about the Russian-Georgian Conflict: A View from Ukraine, Heinrich Boll Stiftung – Warsaw, Nov 2008, pg. http://www.boell.pl/downloads/Georgia_war_from_UA_perspective_by_Y.Scherbak.pdf]
2. The war in Caucasus attested that frozen conflicts, … can lead to a new global conflict. Pg. 2-3
1nc—Solvency
TURN --- US BAD
Slow transition will be peaceful because the opposition is organizing. US involvement will fragment this.
Lesch, 8-17[David, professor of Middle East history at Trinity University, wrote Bashar’s autobiography, badass, “The Conceptual Gap Between Syria and the US,” http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/17/the_conceptual_gap_between_syria_and_the_us]
If the protests miraculously … than the Syrian leadership.
Collapse is inevitable. US action to speed up the transition guarantees endless civil war. The opposition needs time to develop a leader.
Landis, 8-9 [Joshua, director of the Center for Middle East Studies, associate professor at the University of Oklahoma, “Syrians must win the revolution on their own,” http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/09/syrians_must_win_the_revolution_on_their_own]
A growing chorus of policy experts in …, we must win this struggle on our own."
Media assistance is BAD
a. Media crackdowns good -- new studies prove open social media quashes protests.
Cohen, 8-28-11
[Noam, NYT, “http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/29/business/media/in-times-of-unrest-social-networks-can-be-a-distraction.html?_r=2&pagewanted=all]
THE mass media, including … Fanon concluded paradoxically, “gave to the combat its maximum of reality.”
b. Causes increased government crackdowns.
POMED, 9-16-11
[“POMED Notes: “Tweeting the Arab Revolution”,” http://pomed.org/blog/2011/09/pomed-notes-tweeting-the-arab-revolution.html]
While social media has the ability to enable … of speech has become a tool of oppression.
c. Encourages false information, strengthens Assad’s legitimacy.
ICG, 7-13-11
[International Crisis Group, “POPULAR PROTEST IN NORTH AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST (VII): THE SYRIAN REGIME’S SLOW-MOTION SUICIDE,” http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iraq%20Syria%20Lebanon/Syria/109%20Popular%20Protest%20in%20North%20Africa%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20VII%20--%20The%20Syrian%20Regimes%20Slow-motion%20Suicide.pdf]
The mainstream foreign media’s coverage has not … played into the regime’s hands. 14
And it DOES NOT SOLVE
a. Media now.
McManus, 9-18-11
[Doyle, LA Times, “McManus: Technology that protects protesters,” http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-mcmanus-tech-20110918,0,3151600.column]
"This was a problem we could do something about," said … panic button on their phones.
b. Doesn’t influence events on the ground and can be used to repress movements.
POMED, 9-16-11
[Project on Middle East Democracy, “"Sifting Fact from Fiction: The Role of Social Media in Conflict”,” http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/POMED-Notes-Sifting-Fact-from-Fiction-The-Roles-of-Social-Media-in-Conflict.pdf]
The first discussion panel was moderated by Himelfarb and included panelists Mark Lynch, Sean Aday, Henry Farrell, and John Sides, all professors at George Washington University; Brian Eoff of Bit.Ly, and Dean Freelon, professor at American University. Participants in the panel … promote democracy or activism.
c. Oppositions building unified ties now -- that outweighs media access.
The Economist, 6-30-11
[“The squeeze on Assad,” http://www.economist.com/node/18895586?story_id=18895586]
In contrast, Syria’s opposition is becoming more … of trust are harder to shut down than phone lines.
d. Can’t solve without simultaneous civil society assistance.
POMED, 9-16-11
[Project on Middle East Democracy, “"Sifting Fact from Fiction: The Role of Social Media in Conflict”,” http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/POMED-Notes-Sifting-Fact-from-Fiction-The-Roles-of-Social-Media-in-Conflict.pdf]
The fourth and final panel was entitled: New … it came to creating cooperation.
1NC—ADVANTAGE
Genocide
You have to assess consequences—they outweigh intent:
Issac, professor of political science at Indiana University, 2002 (Jeffrey, Dissent, Spring, ebsco)
As writers such as Niccolo Machiavelli, Max Weber, … It promotes arrogance. And it undermines political effectiveness.
Bioweapons
No impact to bioweapons
Leitenberg ‘6 (Milton, Senior research scholar at the University of Maryland, Trained as a Scientist and Moved into the Field of Arms Control in 1966, First American Recruited to Work at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Affiliated with the Swedish Institute of International Affairs and the Center for International Studies Peace Program at Cornell University, Senior Fellow at CISSM, http://www.commondreams.org/views06/0217-27.htm)
The United States has spent at least $33 billion since … each year?
Smallpox
Small pox is EXTREMELY difficult to weaponize. And if an attack happened we would just vaccinate people. Assign zero risk.
NYT ‘1 (“Fears of Anthrax and Smallpox”, 10-7, L/N)
Smallpox is an even bigger worry for …e outbreaks of disease, whether natural or manmade.
MIDDLE EAST WAR
The civil war will be tiny - both sides will de-escalate before it gets out of hand
Abdul-Hussain, 9-8-11
[Hussain, Washington bureau chief, Alrai newspaper, “There Will Be No Civil War in Syria,” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/hussain-abdulhussain/there-will-be-no-civil-wa_b_952370.html]
Despite all the doom … get a day in the sun without fear from Assad's repression.
No evidence of sectarianism and people want peace
Azem, 7-28-2011
[Ibtisam, prominent Syrian opposition figure, Professor of Political Sociology at the Sorbonne, “The Syrian people will determine the fate in Syria: an interview whit Buhran Ghalyoun,” http://www.globalrights.info/index.php?view=article&catid=36:middle-east&id=1871:the-syrian-people-will-determine-the-fate-in-syria-an-interview-whit-buhran-ghalyoun&format=pdf&ml=2&mlt=&tmpl=]
IA: What is your assessment of the fear … is respected and is equal to others.
Assad will reform soon -- solves instability.
Afrasiabi, 8-25-11
[Kaveh L., Asia Times, “Does Gaddafi's fate await Assad?” http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MH25Ak01.html]
But, in addition to purely military-strategic … Western hegemony in the Middle East.
No global escalation
Dyer, 02 – Ph.D. in Military and Middle Eastern History from the University of London and former professor at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst and Oxford University (Gwynne, Queen’s Quarterly, “The coming war”, December, questia)
All of this indicates an extremely dangerous situation, with … like sausages. But the good news is: we are out of the business.
No risk of Middle East war
Maloney and Takeyh, 07 - *senior fellow for Middle East Policy at the Saban Center for Middle East Studies at the Brookings Institution AND **senior fellow for Middle East Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (Susan and Ray, International Herald Tribune, 6/28, “Why the Iraq War Won't Engulf the Mideast”,
http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2007/0628iraq_maloney.aspx)
Yet, the Saudis, Iranians, Jordanians… local conflicts from enveloping the entire Middle East.
INTERVENTION
No risk of US intervention -- despite political pressures.
AP, 10-23-11
[“McCain talks about military options in Syria,” http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/mccain-talks-about-military-options-in-syria/2011/10/23/gIQAl0Gf9L_story.html]
SOUTHERN SHUNEH, Jordan — Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) … called for the kind of outside intervention that Libya’s opposition did.
No risk of US/NATO military intervention -- politically impossible.
Heard, 6-15-11
[Linda S., British specialist writer on Middle East affairs, “Intervention in Syria would benefit Israel,” http://www.intrepidreport.com/archives/2162]
There’s a great debate going on as to whether … for its member countries to step up to the plate in Libya.
UN won’t accept it.
Landler & Sanger, 7-13-11
[Mark, White House correspondent for The New York Times, David, Chief Washington Correspondent for The New York Times, Senior Writer, “White House, in Shift, Turns Against Syria Leader,” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/13/world/middleeast/13policy.html?_r=2&ref=middleeast&pagewanted=all]
Mrs. Clinton’s comments seemed calculated to answer …would reject any resolution condemning Mr. Assad.
SAUDI IRAN
Saudi-Iran won’t get violent.
Allison and Cordesman 10 (Marissa, intern; Anthony, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the CSIS. “U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States.” Center for Strategic and International Studies, December 6, 2010.)
The Saudis do not directly confront … of consultation between the two countries.”
Cooperation now -- common security threats.
Allison and Cordesman 10 (Marissa, intern; Anthony, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the CSIS. “U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States.” Center for Strategic and International Studies, December 6, 2010.)
At the same time, Iran, the Southern Gulf states, … combating smuggling and terrorist networks in the region.
Iran-Saudi competition isn’t a threat.
Mueller 11 (Chelsi, junior research fellow in the Center for Iranian Studies. “Iranian-Arab Relations in Light of Wikileaks Disclosures.” Iran Pulse, Tel Aviv University’s Center for Iranian Studies: January 16, 2011. http://www.tau.ac.il/humanities/iranian_studies/pulse42.eng.html.)
But Iranian leaders calculated that the gradual erosion of … détente between the two countries
Middle East Proliferation
Multiple factors prevent ME prolif
Lindsay and Takeyh 10 [James M., Senior Vice President, Director of Studies, and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair, Council on Foreign Relations, and Ray, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations, "After Iran Gets the Bomb," Foreign Affairs; Mar/Apr2010, Vol. 89 Issue 2, p33-49, EBSCO]
Another danger that would have to be countered would be … law imposed, or could impose, on nuclear proliferators.
No risk – US security guarantees and long time frame
Hunter 10 [Robert E., Senior Advisor at the RAND Corporation, Senior Concept Developer for Allied Command Europe, member of the Advisory Panel to the US European Command, former US Ambassador to NATO, former Director of Middle East Affairs for the NSC, “ Rethinking Iran,” Survival, Vol 52, Issue 5, October-November, EBSCO]
One oft-cited fear, however, … that could be ready within a decade or more.
IRAN-ISREAL
No Israel escalation
Bar’el, ‘10
[Zvi, Haaretz News, “Let's calm down on Syria and Hezbollah,” 2-28, http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/opinion/let-s-calm-down-on-syria-and-hezbollah-1.266321]
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has visited Syria four times, … shared by Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas.
Attacks against Israel won’t escalate – only small scale proxy wars
Sappenfield, 06 - staff writer (Mark, Christian Science Monitor, “Wider war in Middle East? Not likely”, 6/18, lexis)
Of the dangers presented by the conflict between …. It has continually fired rockets into northern Israel.
Sunni-Shiite Conflict Means War Against Israel Won’t Escalate
Ferguson 6 (Niall, Professor of History at Harvard University, Senior Research Fellow of Jesus College, Oxford, and Senior Fellow of the Hoover Institution, Stanford, LA Times, July 24)
Yet the biggest ethnic conflict in … by American arms, must surely be a cause for concern.
Conflict from terrorism against Israel won’t escalate – states won’t get involved
Rubin, 2006 - Director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center of the Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) in Herzliya, Israel (Barry, Foreign Affairs, July-August, “Israel's New Strategy”, p. lexis
At the same time, a number of other … lines that did not enclose a hostile population.
Israel won’t risk aggression---US position has changed, lack of international support, and consensus amongst political leaders
Primakov 9—President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation; Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences; member of the Editorial Board of Russia in Global Affairs., article is based on the scientific report for which the author was awarded the Lomonosov Gold Medal of the Russian Academy of Sciences in 2008 (Yevgeny, The Fundamental Problem, “The Middle East Problem in the Context of International Relations”, Russia in Global Affiars, Vol. 7, Number 3, July-September 2009,
What capabilities does the international community … class are aware of this.
Middle East war won’t escalate even if Israel used nuclear weapons
Hennigan 6 (Jim, Lawyer, The Beat, July 25 http://www.metrobeat.net/gbase/Expedite/Content?oid=oid%3A3946)
Israel may have gone “nuclear” over … Oliver Stone would envy.
2nc --- Turkey CP
CP solves
-Sufficiency
-Quantifiability
Turkey is uniquely capable of engineering a soft landing
Maksad & Cagaptay 11 - Washington-based political consultant on the Middle East & Director of the Turkish Research Program @ Washington Institute for Near East Policy. [Firas Maksad & Soner Cagaptay, “Uncomfortable Ottomans,” Foreign Policy, June 8, 2011, pg. http://www.cagaptay.com/9747/uncomfortable-ottomans]
Unlike the United States, …, with an eye to picking the winner.
Turkish soft power solves – It has leverage
Hurd 11 – Professor of political theory and international relations @ Northwestern University. She specialises in relations between Europe, the United States, and the Middle East. [Elizabeth Shakman Hurd, “Time to stand up, Turkey,” Al Jazeera, Last Modified: 10 May 2011 11:35, pg. http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/04/20114268202943126.html]
Now is the time for the rest of the world, …. Now is the time to apply it.
Turkish pressure on Assad causes him to step down
Bozkurt 8-19-11 [Abdullah, Bureau-in-Chief for Today's Zaman, Turkey's best-selling English daily, Departure of Assad and Turkey’s role, Today’s Zaman, http://www.sundayszaman.com/sunday/columnistDetail_getNewsById.action?newsId=254309]
Assad must have realized that Turkey, … majority country, is pushed into a corner.
AKP will abandon Assad and support the opposition – It’s international and domestic political capital depends on it
Çemrek 11 – SDE Vice Coordinator of Program of International Relations [Dr. Murat Çemrek, “Turkey at Crossraods: Syrians Rush to the Border,” Institute of Strategic Thinking (SDE), 10.06.2011 12:05, pg. http://www.sde.org.tr/tr/kose-yazilari/923/turkey-at-crossraods-syrians-rush-to-the-border.aspx]
Then what is next for Turkish foreign policy … his country or at least pretend as the leader.
Turkish road map is still on the table – It has more influence than any other country
Bolat 11 – SDE Board Member [Aydın Bolat “Where Does Syria Go?,” Institute of Strategic Thinking (SDE), 20.05.2011 12:06, pg. http://www.sde.org.tr/tr/kose-yazilari/896/where-does-syria-go.aspx]
The expected external responses … Basher Assad would also participate.
2NC --- Perm (Both)
Permutation links to all our offense
Turkey DA – the perm IS the link to the DA. Turns Turkey into a contracted agent, which guts their credibility
US Bad – the perm includes US action
US action makes Turkish action moot – doesn’t revive credibility because it’s seen as clean-up duty
The perm isn’t net beneficial – Turkish action alone solves better than the plan
CSM 6-16-11 [Outsourcing democracy promotion; Turkey, after seeing atrocities in Syria, joins a club of other regional, democratic powers like Brazil and Indonesia helping their neighbors. CSM, Lexis]
Turkey - if it follows its words .. they have long sought.
Extend the Rosenberg evidence – perm muddles roles and realigns Turkey with the West. Causes a power vacuum filled by Iran.
US involvement makes Turkey into a stooge – causes backlash that guts solvency
Khakee et al 08 – International consultant and a democratisation expert @ FRIDE, [Anna Khakee, Jaber Afoukane (Ph. D candidate), Fouad M. Ammor (Research Fellow @ Groupement d’Études et de Recherches sur la Méditerranée) and Derek Lutterbeck (Deputy Director of Mediterranean Academy of Diplomatic Studies), Pragmatism Rather than Backlash: Moroccan Perceptions of Western Democracy Promotion,” EuroMesCo, Paper 73, November 2008
5) This study finds that, contrary to some expectations, …certainly also lead to a backlash.
And, independent Turkish action is key to solve and stabilizes Afghanistan.
Erman 10 - Turkey’s special coordinator for Afghanistan (91-03) [Aydemir Erman (Former Adviser in Afghanistan) “How Turkey’s Soft Power Can Aid NATO in Afghanistan,” New Perspective Quarterly, Spring 2010, pg. http://www.digitalnpq.org/archive/2010_spring/11_erman.html]
The international community in … nation. It can do so again today.
The impact is regional war involving Russia, India, Iran and Pakistan – High risk of nuclear escalation.
Hanrahan 11 - Former executive director of The Fund for Investigative Journalism [John Hanrahan (Reporter for The Washington Post, The Washington Star, and UPI) “The Afghanistan war and Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal,” Nienam Watchdog| July 06, 2011, pg. http://www.niemanwatchdog.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=background.view&backgroundid=561]
Dr. Marvin Weinbaum, scholar-in-residence … risk Pakistan’s large nuclear arsenal.”
AT: Internat’l Actor Illegit (Long)
3. Education. Debates about strategy and method are important to understanding democracy assistance.
Carothers 09 - Founder and Director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Program @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. [Thomas Carothers is vice-president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Democracy Assistance: political vs. developmental?” Journal of Democracy Volume 20, Number 1 January 2009]
This basic division between the … avoiding genuine democratization. Pg.5-6
5. Heart of the topic. Debates about the actor are important to analyze democracy assistance.
Stahn & van Hüllen 07 - Research Associate for the Collaborative Research Project @ Free University Berlin & Research Associate for the Otto Suhr Institute of Political Science @ Free University Berlin [Andreas Stahn and Vera van Hüllen, Paper prepared for the European Union Studies Association (EUSA), Tenth Biennial International Conference, May 17-19, 2007, Montreal, Canada, pg. http://aei.pitt.edu/7911/1/hullen-v-03e.pdf]
Even if an actor does not develop … disposal and the use he makes of them.
3. We have an advocate. The CP is predictable and topic relevant.
NDI 11 [National Democratic Institute, “Transatlantic Dialogue on Democracy Assistance Expresses Solidarity with Reformers in Middle East and North Africa,”Published March 23, 2011, pg. http://www.ndi.org/Transatlantic-Dialogue-Brussels]
Against the backdrop of rapidly unfolding …, including the necessary financial resources for this effort."
2nc --- Slow Transition
Squo is a peaceful transition – the opposition is in the early stages of political organization – once clear leadership develops – core regime supporters like business elites and Alawites will defect, causing Assad to peacefully step down – Landis and Lesch
Opposition is strengthening – causing defections from the inner circle
Anthony Shadid and Steven Lee Myers 8/10/11 Shadid is a foreign correspondent for The New York Times He has won the Pulitzer Prize for International Reporting twice. Myers is the Baghdad bureau chief and white house correspondent for The New York Times. “Support for Opthamologist Government Shows Signs of Weakening” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/11/world/middleeast/11syria.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss
But as the government has resorted … you’ll see Damascus go up in flames.”
Alawite overthrow will deescalate tensions and create peaceful transition
Ghadry, 7-1-11 [Farid, member of the Committee on the Present Danger (www.fightingterror.org) and has written several articles and essays on Syria and the politics in the Levant, “Syria’s Future: Alawite Military Coup, or Regional Civil War,” http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/syria%E2%80%99s-future-alawite-military-coup-or-regional-civil-war/?singlepage=true]
Syria may be on the brink of a civil war far … is in everyone’s interest.
Alawites are key to peaceful transition - they hold up the military and security apparatus
Goldsmith, 7-13-11 [Leon, PhD Candidate in Syrian Politics, University of Otago, Politics Department, Dunedin, New Zealand, “Syria’s Alawites and the Politics of Sectarian Insecurity: A Khaldunian Perspective*,” http://www.orsam.org.tr/en/enUploads/Article/Files/2011713_Leon%20Goldsmith.pdf]
For my Alawite acquaintances however, … its resistance to political reform and a democratic transition.
Stronger opposition will incorporate the ruling elite – they will cooperate instead of fight
Weiss, 8-24-11 [Michael, director of communications at the Henry Jackson Society, “Regime change for Syria,” http://www.henryjacksonsociety.org/stories.asp?pageid=49&id=2384]
Dr Radwan Ziadeh, the architect of the 150-strong … of belief, expression and practice of religion.”
2nc --- Involvement
US action is a kiss of doom
Seelye, 9-1-11 [Kate, vice president of the Middle East Institute and a former NPR correspondent based in the Middle East, “Why Can't the Syrian Opposition Get Along?” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/09/01/why_cant_the_syrian_opposition_get_along?page=full]
The NTC was created just 12 days after the start …, have largely remained anonymous to avoid arrest.
US action destroys leaderhip that’s developing now
Harling, 8-30-11 [Peter, Project Director, Iraq, Lebanon and Syria, International Crisis Group, “How not to prolong the Syrian agony,” http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/commentary/harling-how-not-to-prolong-the-syrian-agony.aspx]
How not to prolong the agony? … coattails but in complementing it.
CONCEDED --- Alawite defections are critical to regime collapse -- only domestic action motivates that -- external intervention discredits the opposition and increase mistrust.
Kodmani, 7-31-11 [Bassma, executive director of the Arab Reform Initiative, “To Topple Assad, It Takes a Minority,” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/01/opinion/to-topple-assad-it-takes-a-minority.html]
AFTER four months of popular demonstrations and … ranks and seal the regime’s demise.
AND the buinsess class will stop supporting the regime -- US support changes their minds.
Slim 11 adjunct research fellow at the National Security Studies Program at the New America Foundation and a scholar at the Middle East institute
(Randa, Where’s Syria’s business community, Friday, Aug 5, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/05/wheres_syrias_business_community)
To date, the cost for Syria's traditional business …s to do this job well without any outside assistance.
They’re key to regime change.
Knickmeyer, 9-5-11
[Ellen, Special Correspondent, LA Times, “Syrian opposition hopes for coup as sanctions, protests grind on,” http://articles.latimes.com/2011/sep/05/world/la-fg-syria-protests-sanctions-20110905/2]
Besides the security forces, analysts and Syrians … who make up Syria's merchant class.
FINALLY US involvement fractures opposition groups further -- its a key dividing issue
Landis, 8-29-11 [Joshua, Director: Center for Middle East Studies and Associate Professor, University of Oklahoma “Opposition Disunity Becomes the Problem as the West Gets its Ducks in a Row,” http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/?p=11683]
The stumbling block in the way of … should prepare itself and NATO to intervene.
That means opposition groups cannot even consider organization.
Seelye, 9-1-11 [Kate, vice president of the Middle East Institute and a former NPR correspondent based in the Middle East, “Why Can't the Syrian Opposition Get Along?” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/09/01/why_cant_the_syrian_opposition_get_along?page=full]
The NTC was created just 12 days after the …, have largely remained anonymous to avoid arrest.
Anti-Americanism is entrenched in Syria -- the plan strengthens Assad legitimacy and causes backlash against the opposition.
Husain, 8-23-11 [Ed, Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies -- CFR, “Why Assad Need Not Fear Qaddafi’s Fate,” http://www.cfr.org/syria/why-assad-need-not-fear-qaddafis-fate/p25702]
I lived in Syria for two years and still visit …, such labels are powerful and destructive.
2NC --- MEDIA BAD
The turn outweighs --- media tech does more harm that good for opposition groups --- causes crackdowns and demobilizes the opposition --- status quo media solves.
Ulfeder, 6-13-11 [Jay, former research director for the Political Instability Task Force, “The Illiberal Consequences of US Government Investments in Liberation Technology,” http://dartthrowingchimp.wordpress.com/2011/06/13/the-illiberal-consequences-of-u-s-government-investments-in-liberation-technology/]
If foreign governments reliably … and aggression they will provoke in targeted regimes.
1NR Cites
1. plan text severs Syrian opposition groups – voting issue because it allows them to spike out of disad links or counterplan competition – makes educational debate impossible
2. Normal means – US assistance has been targeted at the MB – other groups have never been invited – London. Proves that the CP is functionally different than how the plan would work
Should be evaluated through functional competition
1. Infinite regression --- textual competition allows them to scramble words in the plan and play anagram games --- this destroys all CP competition and link turns predictability.
2. Real world --- functional competition evaluates the plan on the merits of its action, not on semantics --- policy makers don’t disregard legislation by saying, “you used the words in my bill” --- encourages research into normal means and implementation that is valuable for advocating for certain policies.
3. Plan vagueness --- textual competition encourages shorter plans so that you don’t have to defend against as many arguments --- vague policies create bad advocacy skills and undermine the quality of other case and CP debates.
4. Textual competition leads to plan plus CPs --- we can PIC out of limiting portions of the plan like “in the US” --- that steals the whole 1AC.
Heres more evidence – normal means is the MB
World Tribune, 8-17-11
[“Report: U.S. favors Muslim Brotherhood over pro-democracy Syrian opposition,” http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2011/me_syria1033_08_17.asp]
WASHINGTON — The administration of President Barack … a significant portion of the Syrian people."
London, 8-21-11
[Herbert, Hudson Institute, “US Betrays Syrian Opposition,” http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=45642]
In an effort to understand and placate Syrian opposition groups, Secretary Clinton invited them to a meeting in Washington. Most of those invited, however, have links to the Muslim Brotherhood. Missing from the invitations are Kurdish leaders, Sunni liberals, Assyrians and Christian spokesmen. According to … democracy in a regime that invariably opposes this political view.
turns the case, destroys post-transition stability.
World Tribune, 9-23-11
[“New secular opposition group in Syria opposes Islamist rule,” http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2011/me_syria1193_09_23.asp]
Opposition sources have acknowledged … looks like the absolute majority," RPS said.
auses civil war and destroys regional stability.
Barry Rubin, Professor and Director of the Global Research in International Affairs Center of the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, Israel, Former Senior Fellow at Johns Hopkins Foreign Policy Institute, The Washington Institute, and CSIS, The Truth About Syria, 2007 p. 239
The young in Syria, who have been exposed … Syria helps that group’s affiliate fight in Iraq.
No evidence of sectarianism and people want peace
Azem, 7-28-2011
[Ibtisam, prominent Syrian opposition figure, Professor of Political Sociology at the Sorbonne, “The Syrian people will determine the fate in Syria: an interview whit Buhran Ghalyoun,” http://www.globalrights.info/index.php?view=article&catid=36:middle-east&id=1871:the-syrian-people-will-determine-the-fate-in-syria-an-interview-whit-buhran-ghalyoun&format=pdf&ml=2&mlt=&tmpl=]
IA: What is your assessment of the fear of sectarian strife …is respected and is equal to others.
No risk of US intervention -- despite political pressures.
AP, 10-23-11
[“McCain talks about military options in Syria,” http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/mccain-talks-about-military-options-in-syria/2011/10/23/gIQAl0Gf9L_story.html]
SOUTHERN SHUNEH, Jordan — Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said Sunday … the kind of outside intervention that Libya’s opposition did.
Assad will reform soon -- solves instability.
Afrasiabi, 8-25-11
[Kaveh L., Asia Times, “Does Gaddafi's fate await Assad?” http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MH25Ak01.html]
But, in addition to purely military-strategic … in the Middle East.
Don’t extend their Saudi-Iran scenario – even if the plan had some chance of solving –
Multiple factors prevent ME prolif
Lindsay and Takeyh 10 [James M., Senior Vice President, Director of Studies, and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair, Council on Foreign Relations, and Ray, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations, "After Iran Gets the Bomb," Foreign Affairs; Mar/Apr2010, Vol. 89 Issue 2, p33-49, EBSCO]
Another danger that would have to be countered … sanctions that U.S. law imposed, or could impose, on nuclear proliferators.
Saudi-Iran won’t get violent.
Allison and Cordesman 10 (Marissa, intern; Anthony, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the CSIS. “U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States.” Center for Strategic and International Studies, December 6, 2010.)
The Saudis do not directly confront Iran … and this necessitates the continuance of consultation between the two countries.”
Economic collapse doesn’t cause war
D. Scott Bennett and Timothy Nordstrom, February 2k. Department of Political Science Professors at Pennsylvania State. “Foreign Policy Substitutability and Internal Economic Problems in Enduring Rivalries,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Ebsco.
In this analysis, we focus on using economic … demand a research design that can account for substitutability between them.
