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Emory CP Cambre-Pesce Neg

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  • GSU Round 1

    • Tournament: GSU | Round: 1 | Opponent: UGA FR | Judge: Sample Judge

    • DA = DIRECT – 1NC

      A.  Democracy Assistance is that which DIRECTLY fosters democracy in a recipient country.
      Lappin 10 – Visiting Scholar in the Faculty of Political Science @ University of Belgrade [Richard Lappin (PhD Candidate in the Centre for Peace Research and Security Studies @ University of Leuven, Belgium & Participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE/ODIHR and Carter Center.)“Post-Conflict Democracy Assistance: A State of the Art’, Cahiers of the Centre for Peace Research & Strategic Studies, No.85, 2010]

      Establishing the definitional clarity … therefore include economic and social aid programmes.’174 pg. 33-35 

      B.  Violation – the aff is indirect.  Only assistance that goes to the core of political contestation is topical – other forms like improving civil society, the atmosphere for democracy are indirect.  
      CAROTHERS  03  Sr. Associate at Carnegie – general DA expert
      [Thomas Carothers- June 2003, IS GRADUALISM POSSIBLE? Choosing a Strategy for Promoting Democracy in the Middle East, ]

      INDIRECTLY PROMOTING DEMOCRACY
      The second identifiable U.S…y are not to Washington’s liking.

      1NC—SKFTA DA

      SKFTA will pass.
      Hooper 9/10 [Molly K., writer for The Hill, “Obama-backed trade pacts could be heavy lift for House GOP” ]
      And anti-trade interest groups are …been sounding out lawmakers informally.

      Obama will get involved and lose capital.
      Lappin 10   PhD candidate, Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven in Belgium, has participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE, Carter Center, visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade under the JoinEU-SEE program Richard Lappin,  Obama and Democracy Assistance: Challenges and Responses, February 1, 2010,
      The Obama Record on Democracy … is to remain a preserve of U.S. foreign polic.

      Capital key.
      Wharton 11 [Wharton School’s Online Business Journal – Editorial Post – including the Deupty Dean & Executive Director of the University of Pennsylvania’s Business School, U.S.-South Korea Trade Pact: A Turning Point for American Exports?, ]
      The Tea Party Factor During the … Republican economic and foreign policy for decades.

      SKFTA key to the alliance – solves Korean instability.
      Hubbard 11 [Thomas, Senior Director for Asia, McLarty Associates and Former Ambassador to South Korea, 4-7-11, Congressional Documents and Publications, “House Ways and Means Subcommittee on Trade Hearing - Brady Announces Third in a Series of Three Hearings on the Pending, Job-Creating Trade Agreements: South Korea Trade Agreement”]
      The United States-South Korea Free Trade Agreement … leadership position in a rapidly changing Asia.

      Nuclear war.
      STRATFOR 10 [“North Korea, South Korea: The Military Balance on the Peninsula,” 5-26-10, ]
      But no one, of course, is interested in another …situation escalates much further.

      SKFTA sparks global trade.
      Hill 07 (Christopher, US Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs assistant secretary, “The United States-South Korea FTA: The Foreign Policy Implications.”, 6-13,
      Fourth, and finally, the KORUS …increasingly positive role in the world. 

      Nuclear and biological war.
      Panzer 08  [Michael J. Panzner, Faculty – New York Institute of Finance.  Specializes in Global Capital Markets.  MA Columbia, Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse, Revised and Updated Edition [Paperback], p. 137-138]
      Continuing calls for curbs … beginnings of a new world war. 

      1NC—EU CP

      The European Instrument for Democracy and Human Rights should offer all necessary funding to the National Endowment for Democracy to provide assistance in legal education and civil society building for the Arab Republic of Egypt

      The CP solves better - EU-NED coop prevents backlash to US assistance
      Gershman 06 – President of the National Endowment for Democracy [Carl Gershman, “The Backlash against Democracy Assistance,” Testimony to the Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate, Jun 8, 2006, pg. ]
      The new repressive climate in certain states has in fact highlighted the benefits of non-governmental and civil society-based approaches. Maintaining and … and also leverage additional resources.

      Democracy cooperation stabilizes the Black Sea region – It’s a conduit for instability
      Garber 08 - Deputy Assistant Secretary of State [Judy Garber, “Transatlantic Perspectives on Black Sea Region: U.S. seeks to promote cooperation among countries in the region,” Keynote Address at the Woodrow Wilson Center Conference, 10 June 2008, pg. ]
      The Black Sea lies at a strategic crossroads …, Central Asia, and the broader Middle East.

      Extinction
      Amineh 03 – Professor of International Relations @ Webster University [Mehdi Parvizi Amineh, Ph.D (Ph. D in Poli Sci @ University of Amsterdam & Senior research fellow and Programme director of the Energy Programme Asia @ International Institute for Asian Studies) “Globalisation, Geopolitics and Energy Security in Central Eurasia and the Caspian Region,” Hand-out of lecture held on June 19 2003, Clingendael International Energy Programme, pg. ]
      The increasing involvement of the ..Afghanistan, and the war and crisis in Iraq.

      1NC—IRAN DA (EGYPT)

      Iran influence down but not out—US regional interference risks disrupting the current slide
      Krieger 7/27/11 (Hilary, Poll: Arab views of Iran plummet in wake of Arab spring, Jerusalem Post,

      In 2006, after the Lebanon war and … toward Iran would be for it to interfere.

      Egypt is distancing itself from the US—this is the key to checking Iranian regional influence
      Freeman ’11, Ambassador and president emeritus of the Middle East Policy Council (Chas W., Jr., The Arab Reawakening: Strategic Implications, Middle East Policy, Vol. XVIII, No. 2, Summer)

      Egypt, in particular, has been jolted from the … Realignments in intra-Arab relations and politics are sure to follow. 

      1NC—ISRAEL CP

      The United States Federal Government should support the Palestinian declaration of statehood in the United Nations and substantially increase pressure on Israel to accept previously negotiated compromises on a two state solution. 

      We solve THE KEY internal link to credibility and legitimacy The UN statehood Vote is a REFERENDUM on the entirety of us mid-east diplomacy,

      Harris-gershone, September 12th [David Harris-Gershon – a blogger for Tikkun magazine and a freelance writer on Israel, the Middle East and America’s role in the region – has recently published work in The Jerusalem Post, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, AlterNet, Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Colorado Review and elsewhere. His memoir, Shrapnel, is currently seeking publication. He received his MFA from the University of North Carolina, Wilmington, and has worked extensively as an educator, teaching creative writing and Israeli History / Jewish Studies in university and high school classrooms.  Two of Obama’s Major Foreign Policy Goals Are About to Collide, ]

      Next week, President Obama will ….upon what is about to transpire.

      1NC – CREDIBILITY GENERIC

      Support for democratic groups signals American weakness, not influence—destroys credibility
      Bar ’11, director of studies at the Institute for Policy and Strategy (Shmuel, America’s Fading Middle East Influence, Hoover, 4/1/11,

      The Arab revolts and democratization. It is …has been dramatically degraded.

      Democracy assistance has no effect on Egyptian perception of the US—reputation too entrenched
      Carpenter ‘11, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute (Ted Galen, What should U.S. do about Egypt? Very little. The CATO Institute, www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12780)

      The situation in the Middle East is … as much too little, much too late.

      US image tainted—ambiguous support for upheavals and abandonment of Mubarak
      Freeman ’11, Ambassador and president emeritus of the Middle East Policy Council (Chas W., Jr., The Arab Reawakening: Strategic Implications, Middle East Policy, Vol. XVIII, No. 2, Summer)

      Washington’s tardy, ambivalent and …Arabs that America is on their side.

      3. Scholarships refutes credibility as a factor in IR
      Fettweis 10 [Christopher J., fifth year doctoral student in the University of Maryland's Department of Government and Politics. His primary interests include US foreign and national security policies. His dissertation, currently titled The Geopolitics of Energy and the Obsolescence of Major War, focuses on the relationship between oil and conflict. Mr. Fettweis has a BA in History from the University of Notre Dame, Threat and Anxiety in US Foreign Policy, April 2010 Survival, 52:2, 59 - 82]
      For individuals as well as states, … small the issue or large the odds.

      Hegemony doesn’t prevent war – its absence would have zero effect on international stability
      Friedman 10 [Ben, research fellow in defense and homeland security, Cato. PhD candidate in political science, MIT, Military Restraint and Defense Savings, 20 July 2010, ]

      Another argument for high military spending …..while providing no obvious benefit.

      No transition wars
      Buzan 11 [Barry, Professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics, "The Inaugural Kenneth N. Waltz Annual Lecture A World Order Without Superpowers Decentred Globalism," International Relations, 4-1, vol. 25 no. 1 3-25]

      There are many reasons to think that ….a financially integrated global economy.

      1NC – JUDICIARY

      Local conflict won’t escalate
      Takeyh et al 7 Steven A. Cook (fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations) Ray Takeyh (fellows at the Council on Foreign Relations) and Suzanne Maloney (senior fellow at Saban Center) June 28 2007 “Why the Iraq war won't engulf the Mideast”, International Herald Tribune

      Finally, there is no precedent for … from enveloping the entire Middle East.

      No transition wars.
      D. Scott Bennett and Timothy Nordstrom, February 2k. Department of Political Science Professors at Pennsylvania State. “Foreign Policy Substitutability and Internal Economic Problems in Enduring Rivalries,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Ebsco.

      In this analysis, we focus on …. substitutability between them.

      No shutdown
      Cook and Cohen, 11 – * Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow For Middle Eastern Studies, Council On Foreign Relations  Adjunct Fellow, Council On Foreign Relations (Steven and Jarod, “Media Conference Call: Tunisia - Repercussions for the Region,” January 20th, 2011,

      As far as disrupting oil, very … operating is the Suez Canal.

      Great powers won’t get involved.
      Ferguson 6—Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History @ Harvard—(Niall “This might not be a world war, but it still needs a sense of urgency” July 23rd 2006,

      Such language can  for now, at least  safely …, at any rate, is clearly the assumption

      corniche who saw U.S.-made F-16s fly overhead or were choked by tear gas produced in the United States.

      *2NC
      2NC – CIVIL SOCIETY

      And our direct and indirect distinction is key to preserving a manageable research burden
      Burnell 00 – Professor of politics @ University of Warwick [Peter Burnell, “Democracy Assistance: The State of Discourse,” Democracy Assistance: International Co-operation for Democratization, edited by: Peter Burnell, pg. 12-13]

      All things considered, it follows that … to questions such as these.

      And only our interpretation prevents a topic from degenerating into debates about funding schools, bridges, & basketball courts.
      Crawford 01 – Lecturer in Development Studies @ University of Leeds [Gordon Crawford, Foreign Aid and Political Reform: A Comparative Analysis and Political Conditionality, 2001, pg. 146-147]

      What is most notable about US assistance, … thinking had yet to inform practice.

      Second – we will win fairness is a DA to their interpretation – it drains the topic of its controversy and makes it extremely difficult for us to generate offense. Their interpretation of democracy assistance is nonpartisan and doesn’t force intervention into state politics.  
      Rakner 07 – Professor of Comparative Politics @ University of Bergen [Lise Rakner (Head of the Chr. Michelsen Institute (CMI), an independent centre for research on international development and policy), Alina Rocha Menocal (Research Fellow @ Overseas Development Institute) & Verena Fritz (Governance Specialist with the PREM Public Sector Governance group @ World Bank), “Good Governance, Aid Modalities and Poverty Reduction: Linkages to the Millennium Development,” Goals and Implications for Irish Aid Research project (RP-05-GG) of the Advisory Board for Irish Aid, August 2007, pg. ]

      Related to the first factor, the … intervention in domestic political processes. Pg. 39

      Third – education is also a DA to their interpretation – the best scholarly research on democracy assistance advocates studying NGO-state interactions.
      Rakner 07 – Professor of Comparative Politics @ University of Bergen [Lise Rakner (Head of the Chr. Michelsen Institute (CMI), an independent centre for research on international development and policy), Alina Rocha Menocal (Research Fellow @ Overseas Development Institute) & Verena Fritz (Governance Specialist with the PREM Public Sector Governance group @ World Bank), “Good Governance, Aid Modalities and Poverty Reduction: Linkages to the Millennium Development,” Goals and Implications for Irish Aid Research project (RP-05-GG) of the Advisory Board for Irish Aid, August 2007, pg. ]

      Funding to civil society assistance … a leading example of such an approach. Pg. 39


      Third – relabeling means there is a lot of development programs called democracy assistance that have nothing to do with democracy
      Crawford 01 – Lecturer in Development Studies @ University of Leeds [Gordon Crawford, Foreign Aid and Political Reform: A Comparative Analysis and Political Conditionality, 2001, pg. 234-235]

      As with support to governments.. by government or by donors themselves.

      Fifth – a topical version of the AFF is to mandate that the assistance is used to challenge the current regime – forcing them to be explicit about that goal in the plan is key to prevent a proliferation of AFF with only a dubious relationship to democracy.  
      Carothers 04 – Co-director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Project @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace [Thomas Carothers (Vice President of global policy @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), “Democracy and Human Rights: Policy Allies or Rivals,” Originally published in 1994, Critical Mission: Essays on Democracy Promotion, 2004, pg. 21] 

      Third, the democracy …dubious relevance or merit.

      Russian will intervene - aggression will engulfs the region
      Karatnycky & Motyl  09 – Senior Fellow @ Atlantic Council of the United States & Professor of Political Science @ Rutgers University [Adrian Karatnycky (Managing Partner of the Myrmidon Group LLC) & Alexander J. Motyl “The Key to Kiev: Ukraine’s Security Means Europe’s Stability,” Foreign Affairs, May/June 2009]
      Russia’s treatment of Ukraine carries ..between the authoritarian and aggressive Putin and the more pragmatic sounding Medvedev.  Pg 115-117
      *14 Near Abroad States = Estonia, Latvia, Lithnania, Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyztan, & Tajikistan

      Each of these conflicts could go nuclear
      Ford 10 - Senior Fellow and Director of the Center for Technology and Global Security @ Hudson Institute [Christopher A. Ford (Former U.S. Special Representative for Nuclear Nonproliferation and as Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Verification, Compliance, and Implementation) “Proliferation Logics and Our Nuclear Future in the 21st Century,” Asia Policy, Number 7, January 2009, pp. 114-126]
      One could not imagine a starker contrast, … number of near abroad countries. 

      There is a 7.14% risk of this impact is sufficient to access extinction
      Starr 10 - Director of Clinical Laboratory Science Program @ University of Missouri [Steven Starr (Senior scientist @ Physicians for Social Responsibility.), “The climatic consequences of nuclear war” | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 12 March 2010, Pg. ]
      This isn't a question to be avoided. Recent …could kill one billion people.

      AT: CREDABILITY ADV

      1. We solve 100% of the case - The NED is perceived as a government agency
        Carothers 94 – Senior associate @ Carnegie Endowment and Co-director of its Democracy Project. [Thomas Carothers, “The NED at 10,” Foreign Policy, No. 95 (Summer, 1994), pp. 123-138]
        A second criticism is that the endowment is … (such as participant lists) only after activities are underway. Pg. 129-130 

      2. NED initiative will be interpreted as official US policy
      Conry 93 - Foreign policy analyst @ Cato Institute [Barbara Conry, “Loose Cannon: The National Endowment for Democracy,” Cato Institute Foreign Policy Briefing No. 27, November 8, 1993, pg. ]
      That convoluted organizational …the best interests of the United States.

      3. It will be perceived as a government actor
      Sims 90 – Researcher for the Council on Hemispheric Affairs [Beth Sims, National Endowment for Democracy (NED): A Foreign Policy Branch Gone Awry, A Policy Report by the Council on Hemispheric Affairs and the Inter-Hemispheric Education Resource Center, 1990]

      NED's organizational structure … groups over grassroots organizations promoting popular causes. Pg. 17 

      4. NED will follow the dictates of Congress – It will be perceived as a government actor
      Sims 90 – Researcher for the Council on Hemispheric Affairs [Beth Sims, National Endowment for Democracy (NED): A Foreign Policy Branch Gone Awry, A Policy Report by the Council on Hemispheric Affairs and the Inter-Hemispheric Education Resource Center, 1990]

      NED's organizational structure … elite groups over grassroots organizations promoting popular causes. Pg. 17 

      AT: PERM: “BOTH”

      b. Bureaucracy.
      Carothers 09 - Founder and Director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Program @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. [Thomas Carothers (Vice-president for studies @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Revitalizing U.S. Democracy Assistance: The Challenge of USAID, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2009]
      USAID’s basic operating procedures—… adapt easily when basic circumstances change. Pg. 21-22

      3. Perm doesn’t access relations net benefit:
      Congress has mandated that the NED avoids duplication.
      US Senate Committee Report 10  [“National Endowment for Democracy,” DEPARTMENT OF STATE, FOREIGN OPERATIONS, AND RELATED PROGRAMS APPROPRIATIONS BILL, Senate Report 111-237, 111TH CONGRESS, 111-237, July 29, 2010, pg. ]
      The Committee recognizes the … its manipulation and pressure. Pg. 27 

      Rejection force the EU to serve as a counterweight, causes conflict
      Hamilton & Burwell 10 – Research Professor of International Studies @ Johns Hopkins University & Vice President and Director of Transatlantic Relations and Studies @ Atlantic Council [Daniel S. Hamilton (Founding Director of the Center for Transatlantic Relations. Director of the American Consortium on EU Studies) & Frances G. Burwell (Former executive director of the Center for International and Security Studies @ University of Maryland) “Forging a Strategic U.S.-EU Partnership,” Shoulder to Shoulder: Forging a Strategic U.S.–EU Partnership, Edited By Daniel S. Hamilton, 2010]
      To forge a new and more relevant … shortchange American interests, and must be rejected. Pg. 14-15 – AT: Perm – Impact to duplication 

      NED/EU transatlantic cooperation is key to solve – NED has the technical capacity and EU support prevents an anti-US backlash to the program
      NED 06 [National Endowment for Democracy, “The Backlash against Democracy Assistance,” A Report prepared by the National Endowment for Democracy for Senator Richard G. Lugar, Chairman, Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate, June 8, 2006,
      pg. ]
      NED in particular has extensive experience … …participants from Europe and the United States. Pg. 34-37

      *1NR

      International fiat good

      3. Heart of the topic. Debates about the actor are important to analyze democracy assistance.
      Stahn & van Hüllen 07 - Research Associate for the Collaborative Research Project @ Free University Berlin & Research Associate for the Otto Suhr Institute of Political Science @ Free University Berlin [Andreas Stahn and Vera van Hüllen, Paper prepared for the European Union Studies Association (EUSA), Tenth Biennial International Conference, May 17-19, 2007, Montreal, Canada, pg. ]    
      Even if an actor does not develop a …. the use he makes of them.

      Low democracy assistance to Egypt - its mostly military aid
      Smith and Stockman 11 [Stephanie and Natalie, “The Future of U.S. Democracy Promotion” March 10, 2011, Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies, ]

      However, the U.S.‘s relationship with … local activism within Egypt.

      2NC—UNIQUENESS

      And its at the top
      Ariang News 8-31-11 [“House GOP's Agenda For Fall Include Vote On Korea, US FTA” ]
      While the spotlight will be on the ….I will not hesitate to schedule them."

      Prefer the direction of the link - vote is coming this fall - as long as Obama has capital he’ll get it done.
      Palmer 9/2 [Doug Palmer, Reuters, Analysis: Obama's trade legacy in a crucible this fall, ]
      This month business groups expect … Institute for International Economics.

      KORUS sustains US leadership
      WHARTON 1 – 12 – 11   Wharton School’s Online Business Journal – Editorial Post – including the Deupty Dean & Executive Director of the University of Pennsylvania’s Business School
       [U.S.-South Korea Trade Pact: A Turning Point for American Exports?, ]
      What's more, the fate of the pact … his reputation on the line."

      SKFTA saves the US economy and heg – jobs and export growth.
      Donohue, 1-6-2011 [Thomas, president and CEO of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Bellingham Herald, “Korean trade pact is a welcome shot in the arm for U.S. economy,” ]
      From the U.S. Chamber of Commerce to the United Auto Workers, President Obama's announcement that he'll send the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS) to Congress early this year has been applauded. Trade leaders from both parties have pledged support, and the new Congress should act swiftly to ratify this pact. … done for the American people.

      AT: WINNERS WIN

      A. Foreign policy wins count for nothing
      Drezner 8-22-11 [Daniel, writer for Foreign Policy, Winners and losers from Libya … this week, ]
      5) President Obama.  [Wait, how is he a winner and a loser?!ed.] On …Obama's strong suit at the moment.

      B. Our link happens first
      Silber 07 [PhD Political Science & Communication – focus on the Rhetoric of Presidential Policy-Making – Prof of Poli Sci – Samford, [Marissa, WHAT MAKES A PRESIDENT QUACK?, Prepared for delivery at the 2007 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, August 30th-September 2nd, 2007, UNDERSTANDING LAME DUCK STATUS THROUGH .. President must be developed. 

      Winners don’t win – controversies hurt capital – Obama will do a poor job spinning the plan
      GERSON 12 – 19 – 10  Washington Post Political Commentator

      In some areas - such as education …sabotaged by his sense of superiority.

      Democracy promotion sparks political backlash – seen as new spending measures
      Benderey and Stone 5-18-11 [Jennifer and Andrea, “Obama Middle East Speech: President Will Announce Billions In Economic Aid to Egypt, Tunisia,” ]
      None of the money requires …objections to erasing Egypt's debt.

      Sequencing is key – aid is only popular if the government changes first
      Pollock 11 [Richard Pollock, Free Republic, 6-27-11, “Will U.S. Suspend Aid to Egypt’s Military?” ]
      The anti-Western policies .. perhaps there will be cuts.

      Congress hates unconditional aid
      Arnold 11 [David, VOA News, 8-8-11,
      When lawmakers in the U.S. Congress … through,” he said. “Particularly in this region.”

      The plan is AIPAC’s worst nightmare
      Fisher 11 [William Fisher, a regular contributor to The Public Record, has managed economic development programs for the U.S. State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development in the Middle East, Latin America and elsewhere for the past 25 years. He has supervised major multi-year projects for AID in Egypt, Why Israel Fears A Post-Mubarak Egypt, 2-6-11, ]
      One of my readers in the .. the U.S. political spectrum.

      Standing up to AIPAC is political suicide – they’re stronger than the president
      Rooney 11 [John K, “AIPAC Sold-out Congress Fawns Over Netanyahu” Retired US Senator Reveals AIPAC’s Power Over the US – Egyptian Socialists Unite, ]
      The US Congress was hanging … that is thrown on Benjamin Netanyahu.”

      AT: DICKINSON

      Capital theory is true – it spills over
      Marshall and Prins 11 [BRYAN W. MARSHALL Miami University BRANDON C. PRINS University of Tennessee & Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy  Power or Posturing? Policy Availability and Congressional Influence on U.S. Presidential Decisions to Use Force  Presidential Studies Quarterly 41, no. 3 (September) 2011]
      We argue that the more important effect … with Congress.


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09/18/11
  • T - Indirect

    • Tournament: GSU | Round: 5 | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Fostering democracy must be the primary purpose of democracy assistance.  Indirect assistance undermines the value of the term and explodes the topic.
      Lappin 10 – Visiting Scholar in the Faculty of Political Science @ University of Belgrade [Richard Lappin (PhD Candidate in the Centre for Peace Research and Security Studies @ University of Leuven, Belgium & Participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE/ODIHR and Carter Center.)“Post-Conflict Democracy Assistance: A State of the Art’, Cahiers of the Centre for Peace Research & Strategic Studies, No.85, 2010]

      Establishing the definitional clarity ….. social aid programmes.’174 pg. 33-35 

      Governance assistance is indirect democracy promotion – It’s not democracy assistance. It fails to encourage political contestation.
      Carothers 04 – Co-director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Project @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace [Thomas Carothers (Vice President of global policy @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), “Democratic Mirage in the Middle East ,” Originally published in 2002, Critical Mission: Essays on Democracy Promotion, 2004, pg. 243-244]
      Indirect …education 

      Indirectly Promoting Democracy
      The second identifiable ….actions to increase the authority of local governments. 

      And our direct and indirect distinction is key to preserving a manageable research burden
      Burnell 00 – Professor of politics @ University of Warwick [Peter Burnell, “Democracy Assistance: The State of Discourse,” Democracy Assistance: International Co-operation for Democratization, edited by: Peter Burnell, pg. 12-13]

      All things considered, it follows that … conflicting answers to questions such as these.

      And only our interpretation prevents a topic from degenerating into debates about funding schools, bridges, & basketball courts.
      Crawford 01 – Lecturer in Development Studies @ University of Leeds [Gordon Crawford, Foreign Aid and Political Reform: A Comparative Analysis and Political Conditionality, 2001, pg. 146-147]

      What is most notable about US assistance, … such thinking had yet to inform practice.

      Second – they make the topic bidirectional.  Conflating governance and democracy assistance legitimizes AFFs that facilitate further centralization of power – the complete opposite of what the resolution calls for.  The end result is a topic that lacks predictive DA and CP ground for negative.
      Rakner 07 – Professor of Comparative Politics @ University of Bergen [Lise Rakner (Head of the Chr. Michelsen Institute (CMI), an independent centre for research on international development and policy), Alina Rocha Menocal (Research Fellow @ Overseas Development Institute) & Verena Fritz (Governance Specialist with the PREM Public Sector Governance group @ World Bank), “Good Governance, Aid Modalities and Poverty Reduction: Linkages to the Millennium Development,” Goals and Implications for Irish Aid Research project (RP-05-GG) of the Advisory Board for Irish Aid, August 2007, pg. ]

      Democracy promotion has constituted a … social and economic development more broadly. pg. 1-2 Topicality 

      Third – they eviscerate our core DA ground because governance assistance is not designed to be fundamental drivers of democracy, we can’t access any of our Democracy Bad or Regime Backlash DAs.
      Carothers 04 – Co-director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Project @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace [Thomas Carothers (Vice President of global policy @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), “Democratic Mirage in the Middle East ,” Originally published in 2002, Critical Mission: Essays on Democracy Promotion, 2004, pg. 244-245] 

      A[n] further attraction—at least … efficiency, augment the capacities of parliamentarians, train local mayors, 

      Third – relabeling means there is a lot of development programs called democracy assistance that have nothing to do with democracy
      Crawford 01 – Lecturer in Development Studies @ University of Leeds [Gordon Crawford, Foreign Aid and Political Reform: A Comparative Analysis and Political Conditionality, 2001, pg. 234-235]

      As with support to governments… government or by donors themselves.

      Fourth – the linkage between civil society and political institutions makes it democracy assistance – the lack of a linkage makes the assistance neutral on the question of democracy.
      Lappin 10 – Visiting Scholar in the Faculty of Political Science @ University of Belgrade [Richard Lappin (PhD Candidate in the Centre for Peace Research and Security Studies @ University of Leuven, Belgium & Participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE/ODIHR and Carter Center.)“Post-Conflict Democracy Assistance: A State of the Art’, Cahiers of the Centre for Peace Research & Strategic Studies, No.85, 2010]

      In summary, the acknowledgement of …. supplement, not an alternative to high politics and more top-down instruments.’425 pg. 82-83

      Fifth – a topical version of the AFF is to mandate that the assistance is used to challenge the current regime – forcing them to be explicit about that goal in the plan is key to prevent a proliferation of AFF with only a dubious relationship to democracy.  
      Carothers 04 – Co-director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Project @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace [Thomas Carothers (Vice President of global policy @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), “Democracy and Human Rights: Policy Allies or Rivals,” Originally published in 1994, Critical Mission: Essays on Democracy Promotion, 2004, pg. 21] 

      Third, the democracy community … activities of dubious relevance or merit.

      Sixth – the plan must include a policy that promotes democracy – just identifying the mechanism as democracy assistance is not enough.
      Sorpong 07 – Professor of Internatl Security @ Sophia University [Sorpong Peou, International Democracy Assistance for Peacebuilding: Cambodia and Beyond, 2007, pg. 17]

      International democracy assistance ….human rights and democracy around the world.36

      Seventh – direct assistance encourages political contestation. Here is Carothers list of topical AFFs.
      Carothers 04 – Co-director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Project @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace [Thomas Carothers (Vice President of global policy @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), “Democratic Mirage in the Middle East ,” Originally published in 2002, Critical Mission: Essays on Democracy Promotion, 2004, pg. 246] 

      The central element of the … are not to Washington's liking.

      It’s analytically important to differentiate between direct and indirect assistance.
      Ottaway & Carothers 00 - Co-directors of the Democracy and Rule of Law Project @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace [Marina Ottaway (Senior Associate) & Thomas Carothers (Vice president of global policy) “The Burgeoning World of Civil Society Aid,” Funding Virtue: Civil Society and Democracy Promotion, Edited By Marina Ottaway and Thomas Carothers, 2000, pg. 13]

      It should be noted that the civil … that NGOs make in developing countries.

      Second – their counter-definition will lead to a grab bag of indirect aid programs that are unrelated to democracy.
      Carothers 09 - Founder and Director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Program @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. [Thomas Carothers is vice-president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Democracy Assistance: political vs. developmental?” Journal of Democracy Volume 20, Number 1 January 2009]

      It is true, as some skeptics contend, that … more on hope than experience.2 pg. 10-11

      Third – they undermine our DA ground without providing any educational value – we will only learn about what fails.
      Carothers & Ottaway 05 - Director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Project @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace & Professor of Middle East politics @ Johns Hopkins University [Thomas Carothers (Vice president of global policy) & Marina Ottaway (Senior Associate), “Getting To The Core,” Uncharted Journey: Promoting Democracy in the Middle East, Edited By Thomas Carothers & Marina Ottaway, 2005, pg. 256 ]

      Indirect approaches to democracy …successful in the future.

      Fourth – broad interpretations are worse for the AFF - definitional confusion undermines the success and credibility of democracy assistance.
      Lappin 10 – Visiting Scholar in the Faculty of Political Science @ University of Belgrade [Richard Lappin (PhD Candidate in the Centre for Peace Research and Security Studies @ University of Leuven, Belgium & Participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE/ODIHR and Carter Center.)“What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation1,” Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, Vol.4, No.1, May (2010)

      This article has examined the emergence … means will remain improbable. Pg. 194 

      Fifth – lack of definitional clarity undermines policy implementation.
      Crawford 01 – Lecturer in Development Studies @ University of Leeds [Gordon Crawford, Foreign Aid and Political Reform: A Comparative Analysis and Political Conditionality, 2001, pg.29-30]

      A range of analysts have commented that ..concepts are insufficiently well defined.

      Debate is played for its own sake – fairness and quality of play outweigh.

      Dana VILLA Political Theory @ UC Santa Barbara ’96 Arendt and Heidegger: the Fate of the Political p. 37

      If political action is to be valued … and even moral claims/.  




09/18/11
  • GSU Octos

    • Tournament: GSU | Round: Octos | Opponent: Northwester BeKi | Judge: Cohn, Gramzinski*, Osbor

    •  

      The Devil Is in the Details – 1nc

       

      1st off – the devil is in the details –

       

      A.  Democracy Assistance is organizationally complex.  Lots of actors & possible intermediaries

       

      B. Violation – they didn’t specify how democracy assistance is given.

       

       

      C.  Vote Neg –

       

      A.  promotes 2ac clarifications – those get out of core disads like spending, politics, and US backlash arguments.  Also destroys basic counterplan competition.

       

      B.  Damage is already done.  Normal means doesn’t resolve how the plan is implemented – neg block is too late to formulate a strategy. 

       

      1NC – Civil Society

       

      A. Definition – fostering democracy must be the primary purpose.  Indirect promotion explodes the topic

      Lappin 10 – Visiting Scholar in the Faculty of Political Science @ University of Belgrade [Richard Lappin (PhD Candidate in the Centre for Peace Research and Security Studies @ University of Leuven, Belgium & Participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE/ODIHR and Carter Center.)“Post-Conflict Democracy Assistance: A State of the Art’, Cahiers of the Centre for Peace Research & Strategic Studies, No.85, 2010]

       

      Establishing the definitional clarity of democracy assistance is an important for which the primary purpose, not the secondary purpose or indirect purpose, is to foster democracy in the recipient countries. It does not therefore include economic and social aid programmes.’174 pg. 33-35

       

      B. Violation – governance assistance is indirect promotion – It’s not assistance.

      Carothers 04 – Co-director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Project @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace [Thomas Carothers (Vice President of global policy @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), “Democratic Mirage in the Middle East ,” Originally published in 2002, Critical Mission: Essays on Democracy Promotion, 2004, pg. 243-244]

      Indirect …education

       

      Indirectly Promoting Democracy

      The second identifiable U.S. strategy for … promotion of democracy because they do not tackle the core processes of political contestation. Proponents of this strategy are primarily found in USAID .

      C.  Vote Neg

       

      1. There are a limitless ways to promote democracy.  Massively and unpredictably expands the neg’s research burden.

       

      2. Indirect democracy promotion destroys our core DA ground.  The only way to guarantee us access to democratization bad DAs is to restrict assistance to being used for political contestation.   

       

       

       

       

       

      1NC—SKFTA SHELL

       

      SKFTA will pass.

      Hooper 9/10 [Molly K., writer for The Hill, “Obama-backed trade pacts could be heavy lift for House GOP” http://thehill.com/homenews/house/180751-obama-backed-trade-pacts-could-be-heavy-lift-for-house-gop]

      And anti-trade interest groups are poised to pounce on then-GOP candidates … nearly all Republicans support the deals.

      Obama will get involved and lose capital.

      Lappin 10   PhD candidate, Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven in Belgium, has participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE, Carter Center, visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade under the JoinEU-SEE program Richard Lappin,  Obama and Democracy Assistance: Challenges and Responses, February 1, 2010,

      Obama's legislative record also demonstrates that he supported and  a challenge emerges with how Obama can preserve continuity and maintain democracy assistance

       

      Capital key.

      Wharton 11 [Wharton School’s Online Business Journal – Editorial Post – including the Deupty Dean & Executive Director of the University of Pennsylvania’s Business School, U.S.-South Korea Trade Pact: A Turning Point for American Exports?, ]

      it is tempting to believe that both the House and the Senate will quickly push through the Korea agreement  along with pro-trade Republicans. On the other side will be anti-trade Democrats and Tea Party Republicans

       

      SKFTA key to the alliance – solves Korean instability.

      Hubbard 11 [Thomas, Senior Director for Asia, McLarty Associates and Former Ambassador to South Korea, 4-7-11, Congressional Documents and Publications, “House Ways and Means Subcommittee on Trade Hearing - Brady Announces Third in a Series of Three Hearings on the Pending, Job-Creating Trade Agreements: South Korea Trade Agreement”]

      The United States-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUSis a critical step forward …. A failure to approve KORUS would be exactly the wrong signal to North Korea and to our allies .

       

      Nuclear war.

      STRATFOR 10 [“North Korea, South Korea: The Military Balance on the Peninsula,” 5-26-10,

      . So the real issue is the potential for escalation — or an accident that could precipitate escalation …constraints no longer exist.

       

      NED-EU 1NC

       

      The European Instrument for Democracy and Human Rights should offer all necessary funding to the National Endowment for Democracy to provide substantial advisory support to proponents of democratic constitutional reform in Bahrain. 

       

      The CP solves better - EU-NED coop prevents backlash to US assistance

      Gershman 06 – President of the National Endowment for Democracy [Carl Gershman, “The Backlash against Democracy Assistance,” Testimony to the Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate, Jun 8, 2006, pg. http://www.ned.org/about/board/meet-our-president/archived-remarks-and-presentations/060806]

      The new repressive climate in certain states has in fact highlighted the benefits of non-governmental and civil society-based approaches. Maintaining and highlighting independence from government, such initiatives demonstrate that democracy promotion is generally most effective when undertaken by Non-Governmental Organizations,  helppuncture the myth that democracy promotion is an attempt by the US to impose democracy;.

       

      Democracy cooperation stabilizes the Black Sea region

      Garber 08 - Deputy Assistant Secretary of State [Judy Garber, “Transatlantic Perspectives on Black Sea Region: U.S. seeks to promote cooperation among countries in the region,” Keynote Address at the Woodrow Wilson Center Conference, 10 June 2008, pg. http://www.america.gov/st/texttrans-english/2008/June/20080612162948eaifas0.3606836.html#ixzz1S5cj0Z00]

      The Black Sea lies at a strategic crossroads is the natural next step in the transatlantic vision

       

      Escalation causes extinction

      Amineh 03 – Professor of International Relations @ Webster University [Mehdi Parvizi Amineh, Ph.D (Ph. D in Poli Sci @ University of Amsterdam & Senior research fellow and Programme director of the Energy Programme Asia @ International Institute for Asian Studies) “Globalisation, Geopolitics and Energy Security in Central Eurasia and the Caspian Region,” Hand-out of lecture held on June 19 2003, Clingendael International Energy Programme, pg. http://www.clingendael.nl/ciep/events/20030619/20030619_amineh.pdf]

      The increasing involvement of the US, the EU, Russia, China, Iran, and Turkey… has four nuclear-armed countries – Russia, China, Pakistan and India – making it a dangerous potential flash point

       

       

       

      1NC – CP

       

      The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia should withdraw its troops from Bahrain.  The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia should condition its oil–based assistance to the government of Bahrain it ending its abuse of the groups supporting a constitutional monarchy and granting the United States military base access the US Navy 5th Fleet and permission to store wartime supplies. 

       

      Bahrain will say yes

      Youssef 11 [Nancy A. Youssef, “Saudi influence could be key to outcome in Bahrain,” McClatchy Newspaper, Posted on Wednesday, February 23, 2011, pg. ]

       

      MANAMA, Bahrain — Even as mainly Shiite Muslim protesters camp out in Pearl Square demanding major reforms, the deciding factor in the outcome for Bahrain could be …. "That buys them a certain amount of influence."

       

      1NC – CP

       

      Next off – conditions cp:

       

      Text: The United States federal government should condition security assistance to Bahrain on the release of jailed opposition leaders and a genuinely inclusive dialogue between the regime, opposition leaders, and the groups they represent.

       

      Conditioning military assistance solves both advantage – It removes the perception of hypocrisy and forces the regime to initiate reforms

      Hitlermann 9/8/11 - Deputy Program Director for Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group. [Joost R. Hitlermann, “Obama's Bahrain backpedalling,” CNN, pg. ]

       

      How Washington should now proceed is an open question. If Crown Prince Salman is serious about reform, then the United States should apply steady pressure on the regime to  relations without regard for the political and human rights situation is counterproductive, could be interpreted as violating U.S. law, and exposes the Obama administration to accusations of double standards in its approach to the

       

       

       

       

      1NC – Credibility

       

      Constitutional Assistance fails – and causes a backlash on the ground – even instances of US accomplishment were just spin. 

      Carothers 99 – Co-director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Project @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace [Thomas Carothers (Vice President of global policy @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Aiding Democracy Abroad: The Learning Curve, 1999, pg.162-163]

       

      Finally, although aiding constitutions has a technocratic appeal citing the constitutional review process as one of several "quiet but importantD/G [Democracy and Governance] Project accomplishments."3

       

      US has a reverse midas touch – It can only make things worse  

      Al-Oraibi & Russell 11 – Washington Bureau Chief for Asharq Al-Awsat, the world’s largest pan-Arab daily newspaper & Research Fellow @ Harvard Kennedy School of Government. [Mina Al-Oraibi & Gerard Russell, “The Trust Deficit: Seven Steps Forward for U.S.— Arab Dialogue,” The Washington Quarterly • SUMMER 2011, 34:3 pp. 151-163]

       

      The United States cannot expect the people of the Middle East to echo its …it is as if the United States has the reverse Midas touch.

       

      They can’t escape the damage done by Bush

      Carothers 09 – Director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Project @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace & Professor of Middle East politics @ Johns Hopkins University [Thomas Carothers (Vice president of global policy), “Democracy Assistance Without a Plan,” LSE UNDP Development and Transition, April 2009, pg. ]

       

      Q: Does this ‘low policy’ continuity mean that it’ll be ‘business as usual’ under the new US administration? Or might there be more emphasis on democracy assistance?

      A: The Obama administration faces major challenges in trying to re-formulate US democracy promotion after the mistakes and damage of … Obama administration must back away from some of the overly assertive approaches of the Bush administration without giving up on the subject.

       

      ZERO chance they improve the US’ image – It will be rejected as interference

      Mulvany 11 [Lydia Mulvany, “Why don't Arabs love Obama anymore?,” McClatchy Newspapers, Posted on Tue, Jul. 19, 2011 06:13 PM, pg. ]

       

      In an IBOPE Zogby International poll released last week, respondents in four out of six …We are now reduced to interference."

       

      Timing is key –Zogby poll proves that there’s only a risk of a backlash

      Khakee et al 08 – International consultant and a democratisation expert @ FRIDE, [Anna Khakee,  Jaber Afoukane (Ph. D candidate), Fouad M. Ammor (Research Fellow @ Groupement d’Études et de Recherches sur la Méditerranée) and Derek Lutterbeck (Deputy Director of Mediterranean Academy of Diplomatic Studies), Pragmatism Rather than Backlash: Moroccan Perceptions of Western Democracy Promotion,” EuroMesCo, Paper 73, November 2008

       

      The US government should consider the issue of timing in its efforts to step up activities …

      this recommendation does not apply to purely non-governmental US initiatives, which have not suffered from the generalized distaste for the US government.  Pg. 22

       

      USAID branding provisions are uniquely counterproductive – The program can’t succeed unless it is perceived as being owned by locals

      Melia 05 - Director of Research of the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy @ Georgetown University [Thomas O. Melia, “The Democracy Bureaucracy: The Infrastructure of American Democracy Promotion,” A discussion paper  prepared for the  Princeton Project on National Security, Working Group on Global Institutions and Foreign Policy Infrastructure, September 2005, pg. www.princeton.edu/~ppns/papers/democracy_bureaucracy.pdf ]

       

      Another complaint heard from NGOs in the democracy promotion community is that USAID has imposed “branding” requirements … dimension for those working with USAID.

       

      Contracting destroys the program’s legitimacy

      Carothers 09 - Founder and Director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Program @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. [Thomas Carothers (Vice-president for studies @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Revitalizing U.S. Democracy Assistance: The Challenge of USAID, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2009]

       

      Yet despite these local consultations and participation, by far the greatest weight of control throughout the assistance process remains  Such ownership is vital to all areas of development assistance but is especially crucial in democracy and governance work given the special sensitivities

       

      They will force the use of the US model for democracy – insures the backlash

      Carothers 99 – Co-director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Project @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace [Thomas Carothers (Vice President of global policy @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Aiding Democracy Abroad: The Learning Curve, 1999, pg. 162]

      Another …marginal

       

      Another shortcoming of U.S. democracy assistance, the tendencytoward the artificial application of American models, … studied recentconstitutional processes in Eastern Europe, "The Constitution of theUnited States has been marginal."2

       

                             

      Their assistance will be branded as US own and operated – It’s a statutory and regulatory requirement

      USAID 11 [ADS Chapter 303 Grants and Cooperative Agreements to Non-Governmental Organizations,” 06/23/2011 Partial Revision, pg. http://www.usaid.gov/policy/ads/300/303.pdf]

      f. Branding and Marking. It is a Federal statutory and regulatory requirement (…The AO evaluates the apparently successful applicant’s Branding Strategy and Marking Plan (including any requests for exceptions) for approval,

      Branding destroys the legitimacy of the program and undermines the US’ ability to keep a low profile

      Carothers 09 - Founder and Director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Program @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. [Thomas Carothers (Vice-president for studies @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Revitalizing U.S. Democracy Assistance: The Challenge of USAID, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2009]

      This systematic externality of the assistance process creates endemic problems of ownership underscores the lack of local ownership in USAID’s assistance activities while also undercutting efforts to keep a low U.S. profile

       

       

      It will make aid workers a lightning rod for violent attacks

      Worthington 10 - President of InterAction, an alliance of U.S.-based nongovernmental organizations carrying out international humanitarian and development work. [Samuel A. Worthington, “Why American aid workers in Pakistan need to keep a low profile,” Washington Post, Sunday, October 10, 2010, pg. ]

       

      Overtly branding our efforts as sponsored by the U.S. government …

      The debate over branding our efforts is not simply another technical policy decision. For us, it can be a matter of life and death.

       

      They will suspend the program and shift to remote management – devastates effectiveness

      Stoddard et al 10 – Research Fellow @ Center on International Cooperation [Dr. Abby Stoddard (Ten years of directing emergency relief programs for international humanitarian organizations), Adele Harmer (Research Fellow with the Humanitarian Policy Group @ Overseas Development Institute) & Jean S. Renouf (Coordinator of the European Interagency Security Forum), Once Removed: Lessons and challenges in remote management of humanitarian operations for insecure areas, Report prepared by Humanitarian Outcomes for the Center on International Cooperation under a project supported by the Government of Australia, 25 February 2010]

       

      When faced with worsening security threats, aid organisations often must choose between the security of their staff and  lower-quality and less-efficient service delivery, difficulties maintaining a strategic programme and planning focus, the risk of corruption, and accountability concerns.

       

       

      1nc – Fifth Fleet

       

      And, Turn—Royal Ignorance--Plan does nothing to pressure the ruling Khalifi Familythey just advise “advocates of constitutional change”, who are entirely unrelated—this means the plan will be perceived as  deceptive attempt to suppress protest which SUPERCHARGES violence and Anti-Americanism

      Hitlermann 9/8/11 - Deputy Program Director for Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group. [Joost R. Hitlermann, “Obama's Bahrain backpedalling,” CNN, pg. ]

       

      If, however, the royal family (the crown prince included) has decided that it is done … further sectarian polarization and political radicalization, and possibly to greater violence.

       

       

      And, the status quo solves--Economic benefits for Shia communities solve the AFF—this is the 1AC author

      Cooley and Nexon 11—Alexander, associate Professor of Political Science at Barnard College, member of Columbia University's Institute for War and Peace Studies, Daniel Nexon, associate Professor in the School of Foreign Service and Department of Government at Georgetown University, "Bahrain's Base Politics", Foreign Affairs, April 5,

       

      It is time for U.S. officials to reconsider their basing policies. First, they should create broader constituencies for the continued presence of the U.S. military in host countries. In Bahrain, …U.S. planners should ensure that Bahraini Shia companies and workers gain a large share of the resulting contracts.

       

       

      Naval power declining – cuts, economy, and ship erosion.

      HELPRIN  11     senior fellow at the Claremont Institute

      [Mark Helprin, March 2, 2011.  The Decline of U.S. Naval Power, ]

       

      we have retreated on the seasUp to 30 ships, the largest ever constructed, each capable of carrying 18,000 containers, will soon come off the ways in South KoreaNot only will we neither build, own, nor man them, they won't even call at our ports, which are not large enough to receive them These are reductions upon reductionsNor can there be comfort in the fact that modern ships are more capable, for so are the ships of potential opponents.

       

       

      US naval force is dying – ships are too old, no hopes to replace

      FARLEY  10  assistant prof at the Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce at the U of Kentucky

      [Robert Farley, The Future of U.S. Naval Power, WORLD POLITICS REVIEW, 14 SEP 2010, ]

       

      The Future of U.S. Force Structure

      The cooperative strategy is particularly relevant in the context of the upcoming shipbuilding crunch in the United States. Put simply, the United States Navy cannot maintain current force levels while building ships at its current rate.  The global financial crisis may also limit the ability of the U.S. Navy to retain its current advantage over potential adversaries.

       

      Bahrain doesn’t want to kick us out – insiders say US editorials are wrong

      NONOO  9 – 16 – 11   Bahrain’s ambassador to the U.S.

       

      Regarding the Sept. 9 editorial “Bahrain’s brewing crisis”:

      We agree that thoughtful dialogue on events in Bahrain is crucial. But this editorial wrongly criticized our peaceful reconciliation process  The U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights welcomed the creation of the group, which has already demonstrated an impartial approach to investigating events in Bahrain. We are prepared to live with whatever hard truths are revealed.

       

       

      Bahrain opposition recognizes the navy is key for the short term – they are making a long term argument

      WASHINGTON TIMES 9 – 1 – 11 

       Bahrain’s opposition leader sees future without U.S. fleet,

       

      The leader of this island kingdom’s largest opposition party says that a future, … a U.S. Navy presence is important “to be sure that stability in this area is maintained,” Mr. Salman said.

       

      No chance of nuclear terrorism

      Mearsheimer 11  R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago.

      (John, Imperial by Design, The National Interest, Jan-Feb 2011)

       

      This assessment of America’s terrorism problem was flawed on every countIt was threat inflation …we do have a terrorism problem, but it is hardly an existential threat. In fact, it is a minor threat.

       

      Natural marine fluctuations are inevitable. Ocean species are highly resilient.

      Dulvy et al ‘3  (Nicholas, (School of Marine Science and Tech. – U. Newcastle), Yvonne Sadovy, (Dept. Ecology and Biodiversity – U. Hong Kong), and John D. Reynolds, (Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Conservation – School of Bio. Sci. – U. East Anglia), Fish and Fisheries, “Extinction vulnerability in marine populations”, 4:1, Blackwell-Synergy)

      Marine fish populations are more variable and resilient than terrestrial populations  … rapid declines and increases of up to 10-fold are relatively common in exploited

       

       




11/11/11
  • KY v Wake CG R1

    • Tournament: Kentucky | Round: 1 | Opponent: Wake CG | Judge: Jim Schultz

    • ASPEC

      ASPEC – they didn’t.  Vote NEG –

      - kills predictable ground, allows them to shift.

      - undermines topic education.

      - guts solvency
      SPENCE  04  PhD IR from Oxford University
      Matthew Spence, Policy Coherence and Incoherence: The Domestic Politics of American Democracy Promotion,  Workshop on Democracy Promotion. Center for Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law.  

      Comparing American and European approaches …tensions between policy goals.

      T-DIRECT DEMOCRACY

      Democracy Assistance is that which DIRECTLY fosters democracy
      Lappin 10 – Visiting Scholar in the Faculty of Political Science @ University of Belgrade [Richard Lappin (PhD Candidate in the Centre for Peace Research and Security Studies @ University of Leuven, Belgium & Participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE/ODIHR and Carter Center.)“Post-Conflict Democracy Assistance: A State of the Art’, Cahiers of the Centre for Peace Research & Strategic Studies, No.85, 2010]

      Establishing the definitional clarity of democracy assistance is an important step towards appreciating three core problems that have proliferated directly as a result of the confusion inherent in democracy promotion terminology; namely, imprecise democracy assistance data, inherent limitations of democracy assistance, and negative image of democracy promotion.
      Beginning with imprecise democracy assistance data, the lack of definitional concreteness has meant that ‘the available data concerning how much and by whom remains relatively soft, variable in quality and far from complete.’167 Democracy assistance is often merged into standard development projects, which complicates the disaggregation of precise and direct democracy assistance from broad official development assistance figures.168 In one of the few detailed cross-national studies of democracy assistance, Youngs et al. lamented that ‘no standard or easily comparable classification of political aid existed across states,’ and that several countries had to compile the data upon request.169 Moreover, because democracy has become increasingly viewed as central to post-conflict peacebuilding, almost any international assistance effort that addresses any perceived or real peacebuilding or development issue can arguably be labelled ‘democracy assistance.’ In their study, Youngs et al., note that ‘many states included in their democracy and governance categories aid projects that could not be reasonably said to have any meaningful bearing on political reform.’170 Whilst Burnell has posited that some development agencies simply renamed their traditional development programmes as ‘democracy assistance’ to demonstrate that they were in tune with fashionable governance themes.171 Such fastidiousness on the boundaries of what should be considered as democracy assistance is not to undermine the impact that broader development assistance can have on democratisation. As Steve Finkel et al. explain, indirect assistance ‘may promote modernisation, encourage better economic performance, and foster class transformations, all of which may have long-term implications for democratic development.’172 However, the concern is that such a broad definition can lead to an expansive laundry list of things which ‘assist’ democracy, such as general poverty alleviation or the building of schools. Burnell claims that, although at times beneficial, this is problematic because ‘if democracy assistance is defined as whatever helps democratisation directly or indirectly, sooner or later, then our sense of it could be so generous as to undermine the value of the term.’173 Carothers offers a route out of this dilemma in his argument that democracy assistance should be considered all aid ‘for which the primary purpose, not the secondary purpose or indirect purpose, is to foster democracy in the recipient countries. It does not therefore include economic and social aid programmes.’174 pg. 33-35 

      Governance Assistance is not democracy assistance
      Phillips & Mitchell 08 - Project director of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy & Professor of International Politics at Columbia University [David L. Phillips (Visiting scholar @ Columbia University’s Center for the Study of Human Rights. & Former senior adviser to the US Department of State and the United Nations Secretariat) & Lincoln A. Mitchell, “Enhancing Democracy Assistance,” A Research Project of National Committee on American Foreign Policy, January 2008, pg. ]

      Promote Democratic Governance - While governance and democracy assistance are closely linked and have significant overlap, they are not the same. Supporting good governance can complement democracy assistance, but it cannot replace it. Governance support should reinforce democracy assistance, but in authoritarian or post-authoritarian countries, supporting governance without a democratization component often undermines democratization itself. Governance support is especially important in countries where reform-oriented governments have recently come to power. If they cannot deliver on expectations by providing improved services and economic growth, a backlash will likely ensue, both against the government and against the concept of democracy. Efforts to support governance and service delivery should incorporate key components of democracy such as participation, contestation, and accountability. Pg. 10-11

      VOTE NEGATIVE – 

      They explode LIMITS– an expansive definition creates a laundry list of anything that contributes to democracy.  That makes the topic act towards one of these 6 countries.  

      GROUND should allow the negative to say US backlash and democracy promotion bad arguments – their interpretation allows the aff to avoid central issues.

      SECURITY K

      The affirmatives notion of terrorism is constructed in a security framework—makes terrorism inevitable.
      Chernus 1 [Ira, Professor of Religious Studies at the University of Colorado at Boulder, “Fighting Terror in the National Insecurity State”, ]
      Every war needs a good …Now that the former communist 

      The alternative is to engage in a politics of hope by rejecting fear and insecurity
      Chernus 7 [Ira, Professor of Religious Studies at the University of Colorado at Boulder, “Where fear can't take us”, Asia Times, General News Section, ]
      But fear, when it becomes …need to protect ourselves against. 

      SKFTA

      KORUS will pass.
      DONGA 9/26 `US to submit bill to ratify FTA with Korea early next month`,
      The U.S. is expected to …reaffirm the solid bilateral alliance. 

      Capital is key and its vital to the alliance.
      KIM 9/6 Senior partner specializing in international trade at Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP in Washington, D.C. Sukhan Kim, Pushing the FTA to the finish line,
      Notwithstanding widespread agreement … with ratification of Korus FTA. 

      The plan will suck in Obama and cost capital.
      LAPPIN 10 PhD candidate, Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven in Belgium, has participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE, Carter Center, visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade under the JoinEU-SEE program Richard Lappin,  Obama and Democracy Assistance: Challenges and Responses, February 1, 2010,
      The Obama Record on Democracy …preserve of U.S. foreign policy.

      Congress opposes assistance to Yemen
      Rettig 11 [Jessica Rettig, Limited Options for United States in Yemen” 6-14-11, ]
      According to the Congressional Research …affect the country's economic problems.

      SKFTA key to the alliance. Solves Korean instability.
      Hubbard 11 [Thomas, Senior Director for Asia, McLarty Associates and Former Ambassador to South Korea, 4-7-11, Congressional Documents and Publications, “House Ways and Means Subcommittee on Trade Hearing - Brady Announces Third in a Series of Three Hearings on the Pending, Job-Creating Trade Agreements: South Korea Trade Agreement”]
      The United States-South Korea …position in a rapidly changing Asia.

      Nuclear war.
      STRATFOR 10 [“North Korea, South Korea: The Military Balance on the Peninsula,” 5-26-10, ]
      But no one, of course, is …situation escalates much further.

      SKFTA sparks global trade.
      Hill 07 (Christopher, US Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs assistant secretary, “The United States-South Korea FTA: The Foreign Policy Implications.”, 6-13,
      Fourth, and finally, the …positive role in the world. 

      Nuclear and biological war.
      Panzer 08  [Michael J. Panzner, Faculty – New York Institute of Finance.  Specializes in Global Capital Markets.  MA Columbia, Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse, Revised and Updated Edition [Paperback], p. 137-138]
      Continuing calls for curbs …of a new world war. 

      SAUDI ARABIA DA

      Current US democracy rhetoric concedes to Saudi interests
      Karasik 8/1/11 (Theodore, Director of Research and Development at the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis in Dubai and Beirut. “A Conversation with Dr. Thedore Karasik of INEGMA on the ‘Arab Spring’.” Saudi-US Relations Information Service, August 1, 2011.

       SUSRIS: Let’s talk about the …their own pace and scope. 

      Challenging Saudis in Yemen is a major offense
      Terrill 11 (W. Andrew, Middle East Specialist at the Strategic Studies Institute. “The Conflicts in Yemen and US National Security.” Strategic Studies Institute, January 2011.

      A key country that must …U.S. objectives for that country.
       

      It drives Saudis to proliferate
      Guzansky 8/1/11 (Yoel, research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University. "TEHRAN TESTS SAUDIS' NERVE ON NUKES", LEXIS, SRM)

      UNTIL recently it appeared …a cost of more than $US300 billion.

      Saudi prolif spurs regional arms race
      Bowman 08 (Bradley, International Affairs Fellow at the CFR. “Chain Reaction: Avoiding a Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East.” Report to the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, February 2008.

      A Saudi nuclear …steps to decrease this likelihood.

      CASE

      Split your flow into two parts

      First - the internal link

      1. Their evidence says at most there are 300 individuals in Yemen
        Al-Arashi ‘11 [Fakhri Al-Arashi, Publisher & Chief Editor “Yemen Gives Wounded Al Qaeda A Chance To Regroup”, National Yemen, , June 6, 2011]

      The small group — some…. instigates attacks by others.

      2. Al Qaeda’s on the run – Bin Laden and Awleki’s deaths
      Amanpour 9/30/11 – CNN investigative reporter [Christiane Amanpour, “Is al Qaeda on the Run? If So, the Next Step Is How to Defeat, or Negotiate Peace With, the Taliban,” ABC News, Sep 30, 2011 2:42pm, pg. ]

      Americans woke up this …across the border in Pakistan.

      3. They do not have a large pool of recruits – They have been demoralized
      Reuters 9/30/11 [William Maclean “Analysis - Qaeda woes deepen with loss of top propagandist,” | Fri Sep 30, 2011 5:41pm BST, pg. ]

      Anna Murison, of Britain's … Awlaki had a "key operational role."

      4. Tribes will keep AQAP in check  
      Phillips 10 - Lecturer oInternational  Security Studies @ Sydney University.  [Sarah Phillips, “What Comes Next in Yemen? Al-Qaeda, the Tribes, and State-Building,” Middle East Program, Number 107  March 2010 Pg. ]

      This lesson should have …were not prepared to forgo. Pg. 8

      5. Turn: QPQ with Saleh is key to getting intel needed to solve
      Lister 9/30/11 [Tim Lister, “Saleh returns to Yemen as al-Awlaki was killed,” CNN, updated 2:03 PM EST, Fri September 30, 2011, pg. ]

      Analysts say that to the Saudis, …and completely linked to the Muslim Brotherhood."

      Second - the impact

      A. Hegemony

      1. Obama won’t retaliate - he knows the costs.
        Crowley ‘10 (Michael, Senior Editor the New Republic, “Obama and Nuclear Deterrence”,

      Others argue that the United States …would go through with it.

      2. Hegemony doesn’t prevent war
      Friedman 10 [Ben, research fellow in defense and homeland security, Cato. PhD candidate in political science, MIT, Military Restraint and Defense Savings, 20 July 2010, ]

      Another argument for high …while providing no obvious benefit.

      B. Nuclear Terrorism

      1. No escalation and low probability – your author
        Ayson 10 (Robert, Centre for Strategic Studies, Victoria University of Wellington. “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects”. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7 July 2010 , pages 571 – 593. InformaWorld)
        It is just possible that a terrorist nuclear …descend into exaggeration and alarmism. 

      2. The risk of nuclear terrorism is vanishingly small - terrorists must succeed at each of twenty plus stages - failing at one means zero risk.
      Mueller ‘10 (John, Woody Hayes Chair of National Security Studies at the Mershon Center for International Security Studies and a Professor of Political Science at The Ohio State University, A.B. from the University of Chicago, M.A. and Ph.D. @ UCLA, Atomic Obsession – Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al-Qaeda, Oxford University Press, Accessed @ Emory)

      But it is vital to point out that, …uninspiring or even terminally dispiriting. "

      3. No motivation - Al Qaeda has no interest in nukes - they do not want to.
      Mueller ‘10 (John, Woody Hayes Chair of National Security Studies at the Mershon Center for International Security Studies and a Professor of Political Science at The Ohio State University, A.B. from the University of Chicago, M.A. and Ph.D. @ UCLA, Atomic Obsession – Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al-Qaeda, Oxford University Press, Accessed @ Emory)

      PROGRESS AND INTEREST The degree to which al-…. This chapter evaluates that evidence.

      4. No impact – would kill less than one million
      Mueller ‘10 (John, Woody Hayes Chair of National Security Studies at the Mershon Center for International Security Studies and a Professor of Political Science at The Ohio State University, A.B. from the University of Chicago, M.A. and Ph.D. @ UCLA, Atomic Obsession – Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al-Qaeda, Oxford University Press, Accessed @ Emory)

      In the ensuing decades, …one-thousandth the force of a hurricane."

      5. No risk of a collapse of the nuclear taboo - countries know the risks involved - plus they would respond conventionally if anything

      C. CBW Terrorism

      1.Zero impact - no acquisition.
      Leitenberg ‘6 (Milton, Senior research scholar at the University of Maryland, Trained as a Scientist and Moved into the Field of Arms Control in 1966, First American Recruited to Work at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Affiliated with the Swedish Institute of International Affairs and the Center for International Studies Peace Program at Cornell University, Senior Fellow at CISSM,

      So what substantiates the alarm …We are creating our worst nightmare.

      D. Cyber Terror

      1. This is not “War Games”  their scenario is utterly impossible
        Green ‘2  (Joshua, Editor, Washington Monthly, “The Myth of Cyberterrorism”, November,

      When ordinary people imagine …or infrared copiers and faxes.

      E. Multilateralism

      1. Zero evidence post the Obama election, which means multilateralism, is inevitable in US policy

      2. Not reverse causal - no reason a lack of terrorism would collapse the global multilateral infrastructure - UN, EU, WTO, IMF, World Bank, WHO, NPT, and other organizations are inevitable

      3. THERE ARE TOO MANY UNILATERAL ACTIONS TAKEN BY BUSH FOR THE PLAN TO MATTER.
      Harvey, Director of the Center for Foreign Policy Studies at Dalhousie University, 2002
      [Dr. Frank P. “GLOBALISM, TERRORISM and PROLIFERATION: Unilateral vs. Multilateral Approaches to Security After 9/11 and the Implications for Canada”, August 2002, ]

      Short-term (unilateral) shifts in …the multilateral arms control regime. 

      F. Oil Shocks
      No impact to oil shocks.
      Victor 11/12/2007 [David G. Victor is a professor of law at Stanford Law School and the director of the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development, November 12, 2007, What Resource Wars?, ]
      RISING ENERGY prices and mounting ….a dearth in governance.

      No impact to oil shocks – Multiple checks
      -Cartel Cheating
      -Private Reserves
      -Government reserves
      -Pipeline re-routing
      -Ship re-routing

      G. Indo/Pak War nuclear war impossible
      CSM 8/1/11 (Talking is Good, Christian Science Monitor,

      Exhibit A is Hina Rabbani Khar. The thirty-… seat on the United Nations Security Council.

      More IL stuff – 

      Al-Awlaki death deters
      The Times 10/1/11 [Giles Whittell, “Al-Awlaki airstrike reveals a shift in anti-terror strategy,” The Times, October 01, 2011 10:24AM, pg.

      A top priority for President Obama's …Pentagon's Joint Special Operations Command.




10/01/11
0
  • Round Reports

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Neg:Emory CP
      Round # 5 Tournament:Shirley
      Vs Team: Michigan DP
      Judge: Jonah Feldman

       

       

      Off Case Args:

      Orientalism K

      Saudi DA

      Econ aid CP

      Politics (shutdown) DA

       

      Case Args:

      Impact defense

       

      Block Strategy:

      CP

      Saudi

      Case

       

      2nr Strategy:

      CP

      Saudi DA

      Neg: Emory CP
      Round # 4 Tournament:
      Vs Team: MSU GP
      Judge: Brian DeLong

       

       

      Off Case Args: T –its, Saudi DA, Shutdown DA, India cooperation cp

       

       

      Case Args: impact defense to the advantages, say no (both the MB and India)

       

       

      Block Strategy: T-its, cooperation CP, Saudi DA, case defense

       

       

      2nr Strategy: T-its

       

      Neg: Emory CP

      Round # 1 Tournament: Shirley

      Vs Team: USC PW

      Judge: Rob Mulhullard

       

       

      Off Case Args:

      Turkey CP

      PIC out of Muslims Brotherhood/ Islamist groups

      Orientalism

       

       

      Case Args:

      Transition = Peaceful

      US involvement in transition worse leads to more violence

      Media crackdown good

      Media in SQ

      No experts on the ground

      Adv D- consequences good, no impact to BW or small pox , civil war = small.

       

       

      Block Strategy:

      Kicked the K (went for everything else)

       

      2nr Strategy:

      Turkey CP with turkey cred DA- Balkans and Afghanistan impacts

      US interference bad, Mobros fragments the opposition 




11/11/11
  • Shirley 1NC - Orientalism

    • Tournament: Shirley | Round: 1 | Opponent: USC PW | Judge:

    • Their depiction of Syria is orientalist --- the 1AC’s scholarship is flawed.

      Biswas 7 (Shampa, Associate Professor of Politics @ Whitman, Ph.D. – Political Science @ the University of Minnesota, M.A. – International Relations @ Maxwell School of Citizenship – Syracuse University, M.A. – Economics @ the Dehli School of Economics – University of Dehli, B.A. – Economics @ St. Stephen's College – University of Dehli, Empire and Global Public Intellectuals: Reading Edward Said as an International Relations Theorist, Millennium 36 (1) p. 117-125)

       

      The recent resuscitation of the project of … the most fundamental and important senses of the vocation.21

       

      Try or die.

      Batur 7 (Pinar, Associate Professor of Sociology & Director of Urban Studies @ Vassar, The Heart of Violence: Global Racism, War, and Genocide, Handbook of The Sociology of Racial and Ethnic Relations, Pg. 446-447)

       

      At the turn of the 20th century, the “Terrible … with dizzying frequency. The 21st century opened up with genocide, in Darfur.

       

      The role of the judge should be to interrogate systems of knowledge. Expertise is not neutral.

      Anand 7 (Dibyesh, Associate Professor in International Relations – Centre for the Study of Democracy @ Department of Politics and IR – University of Westminster, Western Colonial Representations of the Other, http://westminsterresearch.wmin.ac.uk/4657/1/Anand_2007_final_author.pdf)

       

      Within the context of European imperialism, the issue … and mystery that eluded complete understanding of the Other. 




11/12/11
  • Shirley 1NC - Syria PIC

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • The United States federal government should substantially increase the provision of information and communication technology including hardware, software and training only to secular Syrian political opposition groups who have been vetted by the United States.  

       

      Normal means for the aff is just Muslim Brotherhood engagement -- focusing on secular opposition groups is key to check their post-transition influence.

      Rubin, 10-22-11

      [Barry, director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal at Gloria-Center.org, “Why is the Obama administration propping up Syria’s Islamists?” ]

      Let’s remember that the U.S.’s goal should … United States are going to be heading toward trouble.

       

      That causes Golan conflict, spurs terrorism and collapses regional stability.

      Saab, 4-4-11

      [Bilal, Ph.D. candidate at the Government and Politics Department at the University of Maryland, “Syria Goes to War,” http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/syria-goes-war-5103]

      A new Syrian leadership might be …., becoming chaotic—and more lethal.

       

      Golan conflict causes global nuclear war.

      Joshi, 2K

      [Sharad, Ph.D. candidate in Iinternational Relations, “Israel's Nuclear Policy: A Cost-Benefit Analysis,” Strategic Analysis March 2000 (Vol. XXIII No. 12), p. CIAO]

      The Syrian chemical arsenal should be … would be ripe for a nuclear Armageddon




11/12/11
  • Shirley 1NC - Turkey CP

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • The Republic of Turkey should substantially increase the provision of information and communication technology to Syrians including hardware, software and training.

       

      Turkey solves Syria – Assad can’t ignore their opposition

      Walker 11 - Post-doctoral fellow in the Crown Center for Middle Eastern Studies @ Brandeis University [Joshua W. Walker, Ph.D. (Research fellow @ Harvard Kennedy School), “Turkey Should Wield its Power in Syria," Boston Globe, May 14, 2011, pg. http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/21043/turkey_should_wield_its_power_in_syria.html]

      The stakes are especially high in Syriawhich …. Turkey should deliver the same message to Syria.

       

      Turkey has influence now, the plan devastates it.

      Akyol 11 – Turkish journalist [Mustafa Akyol, “An Unlikely Trio:,” Foreign Affairs, Sept/Oct 2010, pg.http://tinyurl.com/3q3etvr]

       

      Although Ankara was at first unsure whether it had … they need help, "Turkey becomes America's next best friend."  //1nc

       

      US action trades off with Turkey

      Lobe, 8-20 [Jim, Asia Times, “The West encircles Assad,” http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MH20Ak02.html]

       

      Despite constant pressure from neo-… at Georgetown University.

       

      Turkish soft power stabilizes the Mideast, Caucasus and Balkans

      Dessi 10 – MA in Conflict, Security and Development from King’s College – London [Andrea Dessi (BA in Middle Eastern History from the School of Oriental and African Studies), “Can Turkey Be a Source of Stability in the Middle East?,” The Heptagon Post, 18 December 2010, pg.http://www.heptagonpost.com/node/26]

       

      Over the past decade Turkey has considerably increased … way” for the region to follow.

       

      Balkan instability risks global nuclear war.

      Scherbak 08 – Advisor to the Chair of the Parliament of Ukraine [Yuri Scherbak (President of the Institute for Sustainable Development of Ukraine), Ten Theses about the Russian-Georgian Conflict: A View from Ukraine, Heinrich Boll Stiftung – Warsaw, Nov 2008, pg. ]

      2. The war in Caucasus attested that frozen conflicts, … can lead to a new global conflict.  Pg. 2-3

       

       




11/12/11
  • Shirley 1NC and Block Cites vs. USC PW

    • Tournament: Shirley | Round: 1 | Opponent: USC PW | Judge:

    • 1nc—OFF #1

       

      Their depiction of Syria is orientalist --- the 1AC’s scholarship is flawed.

      Biswas 7 (Shampa, Associate Professor of Politics @ Whitman, Ph.D. – Political Science @ the University of Minnesota, M.A. – International Relations @ Maxwell School of Citizenship – Syracuse University, M.A. – Economics @ the Dehli School of Economics – University of Dehli, B.A. – Economics @ St. Stephen's College – University of Dehli, Empire and Global Public Intellectuals: Reading Edward Said as an International Relations Theorist, Millennium 36 (1) p. 117-125)

       

      The recent resuscitation of the project of … the most fundamental and important senses of the vocation.21

       

      Try or die.

      Batur 7 (Pinar, Associate Professor of Sociology & Director of Urban Studies @ Vassar, The Heart of Violence: Global Racism, War, and Genocide, Handbook of The Sociology of Racial and Ethnic Relations, Pg. 446-447)

       

      At the turn of the 20th century, the “Terrible … with dizzying frequency. The 21st century opened up with genocide, in Darfur.

       

      The role of the judge should be to interrogate systems of knowledge. Expertise is not neutral.

      Anand 7 (Dibyesh, Associate Professor in International Relations – Centre for the Study of Democracy @ Department of Politics and IR – University of Westminster, Western Colonial Representations of the Other, http://westminsterresearch.wmin.ac.uk/4657/1/Anand_2007_final_author.pdf)

       

      Within the context of European imperialism, the issue … and mystery that eluded complete understanding of the Other.

       

      1nc—OFF #2

       

      The United States federal government should substantially increase the provision of information and communication technology including hardware, software and training only to secular Syrian political opposition groups who have been vetted by the United States.  

       

      Normal means for the aff is just Muslim Brotherhood engagement -- focusing on secular opposition groups is key to check their post-transition influence.

      Rubin, 10-22-11

      [Barry, director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal at Gloria-Center.org, “Why is the Obama administration propping up Syria’s Islamists?” http://dailycaller.com/2011/10/22/why-is-the-obama-administration-propping-up-syrias-islamists/]

      Let’s remember that the U.S.’s goal should … United States are going to be heading toward trouble.

       

      That causes Golan conflict, spurs terrorism and collapses regional stability.

      Saab, 4-4-11

      [Bilal, Ph.D. candidate at the Government and Politics Department at the University of Maryland, “Syria Goes to War,” http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/syria-goes-war-5103]

      A new Syrian leadership might be …., becoming chaotic—and more lethal.

       

      Golan conflict causes global nuclear war.

      Joshi, 2K

      [Sharad, Ph.D. candidate in Iinternational Relations, “Israel's Nuclear Policy: A Cost-Benefit Analysis,” Strategic Analysis March 2000 (Vol. XXIII No. 12), p. CIAO]

      The Syrian chemical arsenal should be … would be ripe for a nuclear Armageddon

       

      1nc—OFF #3

       

      The Republic of Turkey should substantially increase the provision of information and communication technology to Syrians including hardware, software and training.

       

      Turkey solves Syria – Assad can’t ignore their opposition

      Walker 11 - Post-doctoral fellow in the Crown Center for Middle Eastern Studies @ Brandeis University [Joshua W. Walker, Ph.D. (Research fellow @ Harvard Kennedy School), “Turkey Should Wield its Power in Syria," Boston Globe, May 14, 2011, pg. http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/21043/turkey_should_wield_its_power_in_syria.html]

      The stakes are especially high in Syria, which …. Turkey should deliver the same message to Syria.

       

      Turkey has influence now, the plan devastates it.

      Akyol 11 – Turkish journalist [Mustafa Akyol, “An Unlikely Trio:,” Foreign Affairs, Sept/Oct 2010, pg.http://tinyurl.com/3q3etvr]

       

      Although Ankara was at first unsure whether it had … they need help, "Turkey becomes America's next best friend."  //1nc

       

      US action trades off with Turkey

      Lobe, 8-20 [Jim, Asia Times, “The West encircles Assad,” http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MH20Ak02.html]

       

      Despite constant pressure from neo-… at Georgetown University.

       

      Turkish soft power stabilizes the Mideast, Caucasus and Balkans

      Dessi 10 – MA in Conflict, Security and Development from King’s College – London [Andrea Dessi (BA in Middle Eastern History from the School of Oriental and African Studies), “Can Turkey Be a Source of Stability in the Middle East?,” The Heptagon Post, 18 December 2010, pg.http://www.heptagonpost.com/node/26]

       

      Over the past decade Turkey has considerably increased … way” for the region to follow.

       

      Balkan instability risks global nuclear war.

      Scherbak 08 – Advisor to the Chair of the Parliament of Ukraine [Yuri Scherbak (President of the Institute for Sustainable Development of Ukraine), Ten Theses about the Russian-Georgian Conflict: A View from Ukraine, Heinrich Boll Stiftung – Warsaw, Nov 2008, pg. http://www.boell.pl/downloads/Georgia_war_from_UA_perspective_by_Y.Scherbak.pdf]

      2. The war in Caucasus attested that frozen conflicts, … can lead to a new global conflict.  Pg. 2-3

       

       

      1nc—Solvency

       

      TURN --- US BAD

       

      Slow transition will be peaceful because the opposition is organizing. US involvement will fragment this.

      Lesch, 8-17[David, professor of Middle East history at Trinity University, wrote Bashar’s autobiography, badass, “The Conceptual Gap Between Syria and the US,” http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/17/the_conceptual_gap_between_syria_and_the_us]

       

      If the protests miraculously … than the Syrian leadership.

       

      Collapse is inevitable. US action to speed up the transition guarantees endless civil war. The opposition needs time to develop a leader.

      Landis, 8-9 [Joshua, director of the Center for Middle East Studies, associate professor at the University of Oklahoma, “Syrians must win the revolution on their own,” http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/09/syrians_must_win_the_revolution_on_their_own]

       

      A growing chorus of policy experts in …, we must win this struggle on our own."

       

       

      Media assistance is BAD 

       

      a. Media crackdowns good -- new studies prove open social media quashes protests.

      Cohen, 8-28-11

      [Noam, NYT, “http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/29/business/media/in-times-of-unrest-social-networks-can-be-a-distraction.html?_r=2&pagewanted=all]

      THE mass media, including … Fanon concluded paradoxically, “gave to the combat its maximum of reality.”

       

      b. Causes increased government crackdowns.

      POMED, 9-16-11

      [“POMED Notes: “Tweeting the Arab Revolution”,” http://pomed.org/blog/2011/09/pomed-notes-tweeting-the-arab-revolution.html]

      While social media has the ability to enable … of speech has become a tool of oppression.

       

      c. Encourages false information, strengthens Assad’s legitimacy. 

      ICG, 7-13-11

      [International Crisis Group, “POPULAR PROTEST IN NORTH AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST (VII): THE SYRIAN REGIME’S SLOW-MOTION SUICIDE,” http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iraq%20Syria%20Lebanon/Syria/109%20Popular%20Protest%20in%20North%20Africa%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20VII%20--%20The%20Syrian%20Regimes%20Slow-motion%20Suicide.pdf]

      The mainstream foreign media’s coverage has not … played into the regime’s hands. 14

       

      And it DOES NOT SOLVE

       

      a. Media now.

      McManus, 9-18-11

      [Doyle, LA Times, “McManus: Technology that protects protesters,” http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-mcmanus-tech-20110918,0,3151600.column]

      "This was a problem we could do something about," said … panic button on their phones.

       

      b. Doesn’t influence events on the ground and can be used to repress movements.

      POMED, 9-16-11

      [Project on Middle East Democracy, “"Sifting Fact from Fiction: The Role of Social Media in Conflict”,” http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/POMED-Notes-Sifting-Fact-from-Fiction-The-Roles-of-Social-Media-in-Conflict.pdf]

      The first discussion panel was moderated by Himelfarb and included panelists Mark Lynch, Sean Aday, Henry Farrell, and John Sides, all professors at George Washington University; Brian Eoff of Bit.Ly, and Dean Freelon, professor at American University. Participants in the panel … promote democracy or activism.

       

      c. Oppositions building unified ties now -- that outweighs media access.

      The Economist, 6-30-11

      [“The squeeze on Assad,” http://www.economist.com/node/18895586?story_id=18895586]

      In contrast, Syria’s opposition is becoming more … of trust are harder to shut down than phone lines.

       

      d. Can’t solve without simultaneous civil society assistance.

      POMED, 9-16-11

      [Project on Middle East Democracy, “"Sifting Fact from Fiction: The Role of Social Media in Conflict”,” http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/POMED-Notes-Sifting-Fact-from-Fiction-The-Roles-of-Social-Media-in-Conflict.pdf]

      The fourth and final panel was entitled: New … it came to creating cooperation.

       

      1NC—ADVANTAGE

       

      Genocide

      You have to assess consequences—they outweigh intent:

      Issac, professor of political science at Indiana University, 2002  (Jeffrey, Dissent, Spring, ebsco)

       

      As writers such as Niccolo Machiavelli, Max Weber, … It promotes arrogance. And it undermines political effectiveness.

       

      Bioweapons

      No impact to bioweapons

      Leitenberg ‘6 (Milton, Senior research scholar at the University of Maryland, Trained as a Scientist and Moved into the Field of Arms Control in 1966, First American Recruited to Work at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Affiliated with the Swedish Institute of International Affairs and the Center for International Studies Peace Program at Cornell University, Senior Fellow at CISSM, http://www.commondreams.org/views06/0217-27.htm)

       

      The United States has spent at least $33 billion since … each year?

       

      Smallpox

      Small pox is EXTREMELY difficult to weaponize. And if an attack happened we would just vaccinate people. Assign zero risk.

      NYT ‘1 (“Fears of Anthrax and Smallpox”, 10-7, L/N)

       

      Smallpox is an even bigger worry for …e outbreaks of disease, whether natural or manmade.

       

       

      MIDDLE EAST WAR

       

      The civil war will be tiny - both sides will de-escalate before it gets out of hand

      Abdul-Hussain, 9-8-11

      [Hussain, Washington bureau chief, Alrai newspaper, “There Will Be No Civil War in Syria,” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/hussain-abdulhussain/there-will-be-no-civil-wa_b_952370.html]

      Despite all the doom … get a day in the sun without fear from Assad's repression.

       

      No evidence of sectarianism and people want peace

      Azem, 7-28-2011

      [Ibtisam, prominent Syrian opposition figure, Professor of Political Sociology at the Sorbonne, “The Syrian people will determine the fate in Syria: an interview whit Buhran Ghalyoun,” http://www.globalrights.info/index.php?view=article&catid=36:middle-east&id=1871:the-syrian-people-will-determine-the-fate-in-syria-an-interview-whit-buhran-ghalyoun&format=pdf&ml=2&mlt=&tmpl=]

       

      IA: What is your assessment of the fear … is respected and is equal to others.

       

      Assad will reform soon -- solves instability.

      Afrasiabi, 8-25-11

      [Kaveh L., Asia Times, “Does Gaddafi's fate await Assad?” http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MH25Ak01.html]

       

      But, in addition to purely military-strategic … Western hegemony in the Middle East.

       

      No global escalation

      Dyer, 02 – Ph.D. in Military and Middle Eastern History from the University of London and former professor at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst and Oxford University (Gwynne, Queen’s Quarterly, “The coming war”, December, questia)

       

      All of this indicates an extremely dangerous situation, with … like sausages. But the good news is: we are out of the business.

       

      No risk of Middle East war

      Maloney and Takeyh, 07  -  *senior fellow for Middle East Policy at the Saban Center for Middle East Studies at the Brookings Institution AND **senior fellow for Middle East Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (Susan and Ray, International Herald Tribune, 6/28, “Why the Iraq War Won't Engulf the Mideast”,

      http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2007/0628iraq_maloney.aspx)

       

      Yet, the Saudis, Iranians, Jordanians… local conflicts from enveloping the entire Middle East.

       

       

      INTERVENTION

       

      No risk of US intervention -- despite political pressures.

      AP, 10-23-11

      [“McCain talks about military options in Syria,” http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/mccain-talks-about-military-options-in-syria/2011/10/23/gIQAl0Gf9L_story.html]

      SOUTHERN SHUNEH, Jordan — Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) … called for the kind of outside intervention that Libya’s opposition did.

       

      No risk of US/NATO military intervention -- politically impossible.

      Heard, 6-15-11

      [Linda S., British specialist writer on Middle East affairs, “Intervention in Syria would benefit Israel,” http://www.intrepidreport.com/archives/2162]

      There’s a great debate going on as to whether … for its member countries to step up to the plate in Libya.

       

      UN won’t accept it.

      Landler & Sanger, 7-13-11

      [Mark, White House correspondent for The New York Times, David, Chief Washington Correspondent for The New York Times, Senior Writer, “White House, in Shift, Turns Against Syria Leader,” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/13/world/middleeast/13policy.html?_r=2&ref=middleeast&pagewanted=all]

       

       Mrs. Clinton’s comments seemed calculated to answer …would reject any resolution condemning Mr. Assad.

       

       

      SAUDI IRAN

       

       

      Saudi-Iran won’t get violent.

      Allison and Cordesman 10 (Marissa, intern; Anthony, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the CSIS. “U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States.” Center for Strategic and International Studies, December 6, 2010.)

       

      The Saudis  do not  directly confront … of consultation between the two countries.”

       

      Cooperation now -- common security threats.

      Allison and Cordesman 10 (Marissa, intern; Anthony, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the CSIS. “U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States.” Center for Strategic and International Studies, December 6, 2010.)

       

      At the same time, Iran, the Southern Gulf states, … combating smuggling and terrorist networks in the region.

       

      Iran-Saudi competition isn’t a threat.

      Mueller 11 (Chelsi, junior research fellow in the Center for Iranian Studies. “Iranian-Arab Relations in Light of Wikileaks Disclosures.” Iran Pulse, Tel Aviv University’s Center for Iranian Studies: January 16, 2011. http://www.tau.ac.il/humanities/iranian_studies/pulse42.eng.html.)

       

      But Iranian leaders calculated that the gradual erosion of … détente between the two countries

       

       

       

      Middle East Proliferation

       

      Multiple factors prevent ME prolif

      Lindsay and Takeyh 10 [James M., Senior Vice President, Director of Studies, and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair, Council on Foreign Relations, and Ray, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations, "After Iran Gets the Bomb," Foreign Affairs; Mar/Apr2010, Vol. 89 Issue 2, p33-49, EBSCO]

       

      Another danger that would have to be countered would be … law imposed, or could impose, on nuclear proliferators.

       

      No risk – US security guarantees and long time frame

      Hunter 10 [Robert E., Senior Advisor at the RAND Corporation, Senior Concept Developer for Allied Command Europe, member of the Advisory Panel to the US European Command, former US Ambassador to NATO, former Director of Middle East Affairs for the NSC, “ Rethinking Iran,” Survival, Vol 52, Issue 5, October-November, EBSCO]

       

      One oft-cited fear, however, … that could be ready within a decade or more.

       

      IRAN-ISREAL

       

      No Israel escalation

      Bar’el, ‘10

      [Zvi, Haaretz News, “Let's calm down on Syria and Hezbollah,” 2-28, http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/opinion/let-s-calm-down-on-syria-and-hezbollah-1.266321]

       

      Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has visited Syria four times, … shared by Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas.

       

      Attacks against Israel won’t escalate – only small scale proxy wars

      Sappenfield, 06  - staff writer (Mark, Christian Science Monitor, “Wider war in Middle East? Not likely”, 6/18, lexis)

       

      Of the dangers presented by the conflict between …. It has continually fired rockets into northern Israel.

       

      Sunni-Shiite Conflict Means War Against Israel Won’t Escalate

      Ferguson 6  (Niall, Professor of History at Harvard University, Senior Research Fellow of Jesus College, Oxford, and Senior Fellow of the Hoover Institution, Stanford, LA Times, July 24)

       

      Yet the biggest ethnic conflict in … by American arms, must surely be a cause for concern.

       

      Conflict from terrorism against Israel won’t escalate – states won’t get involved

      Rubin, 2006 - Director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center of the Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) in Herzliya, Israel (Barry, Foreign Affairs, July-August, “Israel's New Strategy”, p. lexis

      At the same time, a number of other … lines that did not enclose a hostile population.

       

      Israel won’t risk aggression---US position has changed, lack of international support, and consensus amongst political leaders

      Primakov 9—President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation; Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences; member of the Editorial Board of Russia in Global Affairs., article is based on the scientific report for which the author was awarded the Lomonosov Gold Medal of the Russian Academy of Sciences in 2008 (Yevgeny, The Fundamental Problem, “The Middle East Problem in the Context of International Relations”, Russia in Global Affiars, Vol. 7, Number 3, July-September 2009,

       

      What capabilities does the international community … class are aware of this.

       

      Middle East war won’t escalate even if Israel used nuclear weapons

      Hennigan 6  (Jim, Lawyer, The Beat, July 25 http://www.metrobeat.net/gbase/Expedite/Content?oid=oid%3A3946)

       

      Israel may have gone “nuclear” over … Oliver Stone would envy.

       

       

      2nc --- Turkey CP

       

      CP solves

      -Sufficiency

      -Quantifiability

       

      Turkey is uniquely capable of engineering a soft landing

      Maksad & Cagaptay 11 - Washington-based political consultant on the Middle East & Director of the Turkish Research Program @ Washington Institute for Near East Policy. [Firas Maksad & Soner Cagaptay, “Uncomfortable Ottomans,” Foreign Policy, June 8, 2011, pg. http://www.cagaptay.com/9747/uncomfortable-ottomans]

      Unlike the United States, …, with an eye to picking the winner.

       

      Turkish soft power solves – It has leverage

      Hurd 11 – Professor of political theory and international relations @ Northwestern University. She specialises in relations between Europe, the United States, and the Middle East. [Elizabeth Shakman Hurd, “Time to stand up, Turkey,” Al Jazeera, Last Modified: 10 May 2011 11:35, pg. http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/04/20114268202943126.html]

      Now is the time for the rest of the world, …. Now is the time to apply it.

       

      Turkish pressure on Assad causes him to step down

      Bozkurt 8-19-11 [Abdullah, Bureau-in-Chief for Today's Zaman, Turkey's best-selling English daily, Departure of Assad and Turkey’s role, Today’s Zaman, http://www.sundayszaman.com/sunday/columnistDetail_getNewsById.action?newsId=254309]

      Assad must have realized that Turkey, … majority country, is pushed into a corner.

       

      AKP will abandon Assad and support the opposition – It’s international and domestic political capital depends on it

      Çemrek 11 – SDE Vice Coordinator of Program of International Relations [Dr. Murat Çemrek, “Turkey at Crossraods: Syrians Rush to the Border,” Institute of Strategic Thinking (SDE), 10.06.2011 12:05, pg. http://www.sde.org.tr/tr/kose-yazilari/923/turkey-at-crossraods-syrians-rush-to-the-border.aspx]

      Then what is next for Turkish foreign policy … his country or at least pretend as the leader.

       

      Turkish road map is still on the table – It has more influence than any other country

      Bolat 11 – SDE Board Member [Aydın Bolat “Where Does Syria Go?,” Institute of Strategic Thinking (SDE), 20.05.2011 12:06, pg. http://www.sde.org.tr/tr/kose-yazilari/896/where-does-syria-go.aspx]

      The expected external responses … Basher Assad would also participate.  

       

       

      2NC --- Perm (Both)

       

      Permutation links to all our offense

      Turkey DA – the perm IS the link to the DA. Turns Turkey into a contracted agent, which guts their credibility

      US Bad – the perm includes US action

       

      US action makes Turkish action moot – doesn’t revive credibility because it’s seen as clean-up duty

       

      The perm isn’t net beneficial – Turkish action alone solves better than the plan

      CSM 6-16-11 [Outsourcing democracy promotion; Turkey, after seeing atrocities in Syria, joins a club of other regional, democratic powers like Brazil and Indonesia helping their neighbors. CSM, Lexis]

      Turkey - if it follows its words .. they have long sought.

       

      Extend the Rosenberg evidence – perm muddles roles and realigns Turkey with the West. Causes a power vacuum filled by Iran.

       

      US involvement makes Turkey into a stooge – causes backlash that guts solvency

      Khakee et al 08 – International consultant and a democratisation expert @ FRIDE, [Anna Khakee,  Jaber Afoukane (Ph. D candidate), Fouad M. Ammor (Research Fellow @ Groupement d’Études et de Recherches sur la Méditerranée) and Derek Lutterbeck (Deputy Director of Mediterranean Academy of Diplomatic Studies), Pragmatism Rather than Backlash: Moroccan Perceptions of Western Democracy Promotion,” EuroMesCo, Paper 73, November 2008

      5) This study finds that, contrary to some expectations, …certainly also lead to a backlash.

       

      And, independent Turkish action is key to solve and stabilizes Afghanistan.

      Erman 10 - Turkey’s special coordinator for Afghanistan (91-03) [Aydemir Erman (Former Adviser in Afghanistan) “How Turkey’s Soft Power Can Aid NATO in Afghanistan,” New Perspective Quarterly, Spring 2010, pg. http://www.digitalnpq.org/archive/2010_spring/11_erman.html]

      The international community in … nation. It can do so again today.

       

      The impact is regional war involving Russia, India, Iran and Pakistan – High risk of nuclear escalation.

      Hanrahan 11 - Former executive director of The Fund for Investigative Journalism [John Hanrahan (Reporter for The Washington Post, The Washington Star, and UPI) “The Afghanistan war and Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal,” Nienam Watchdog| July 06, 2011, pg. http://www.niemanwatchdog.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=background.view&backgroundid=561]

      Dr. Marvin Weinbaum, scholar-in-residence … risk Pakistan’s large nuclear arsenal.”

       

      AT: Internat’l Actor Illegit (Long)

       

      3. Education. Debates about strategy and method are important to understanding democracy assistance.

      Carothers 09 - Founder and Director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Program @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. [Thomas Carothers is vice-president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Democracy Assistance: political vs. developmental?” Journal of Democracy Volume 20, Number 1 January 2009]

      This basic division between the … avoiding genuine democratization. Pg.5-6

       

      5. Heart of the topic. Debates about the actor are important to analyze democracy assistance.

      Stahn & van Hüllen 07 - Research Associate for the Collaborative Research Project @ Free University Berlin & Research Associate for the Otto Suhr Institute of Political Science @ Free University Berlin [Andreas Stahn and Vera van Hüllen, Paper prepared for the European Union Studies Association (EUSA), Tenth Biennial International Conference, May 17-19, 2007, Montreal, Canada, pg. http://aei.pitt.edu/7911/1/hullen-v-03e.pdf]   

      Even if an actor does not develop … disposal and the use he makes of them.

       

      3. We have an advocate.  The CP is predictable and topic relevant.

      NDI 11 [National Democratic Institute, “Transatlantic Dialogue on Democracy Assistance Expresses Solidarity with Reformers in Middle East and North Africa,”Published March 23, 2011, pg. http://www.ndi.org/Transatlantic-Dialogue-Brussels]

      Against the backdrop of rapidly unfolding …, including the necessary financial resources for this effort."

       

      2nc --- Slow Transition

       

      Squo is a peaceful transition – the opposition is in the early stages of political organization – once clear leadership develops – core regime supporters like business elites and Alawites will defect, causing Assad to peacefully step down – Landis and Lesch

       

       

      Opposition is strengthening – causing defections from the inner circle

      Anthony Shadid and Steven Lee Myers 8/10/11  Shadid   is a foreign correspondent for The New York Times   He has won the Pulitzer Prize for International Reporting twice.  Myers is the Baghdad bureau chief and white house correspondent for The New York Times. “Support for Opthamologist Government Shows Signs of Weakening” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/11/world/middleeast/11syria.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss

       

      But as the government has resorted … you’ll see Damascus go up in flames.”

       

      Alawite overthrow will deescalate tensions and create peaceful transition

      Ghadry, 7-1-11 [Farid, member of the Committee on the Present Danger (www.fightingterror.org) and has written several articles and essays on Syria and the politics in the Levant, “Syria’s Future: Alawite Military Coup, or Regional Civil War,” http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/syria%E2%80%99s-future-alawite-military-coup-or-regional-civil-war/?singlepage=true]

       

      Syria may be on the brink of a civil war far … is in everyone’s interest.

       

       

      Alawites are key to peaceful transition - they hold up the military and security apparatus

      Goldsmith, 7-13-11 [Leon, PhD Candidate in Syrian Politics, University of Otago, Politics Department, Dunedin, New Zealand, “Syria’s Alawites and the Politics of Sectarian Insecurity:  A Khaldunian Perspective*,” http://www.orsam.org.tr/en/enUploads/Article/Files/2011713_Leon%20Goldsmith.pdf]

       

      For my Alawite acquaintances however, … its resistance to political reform and a democratic transition.

       

      Stronger opposition will incorporate the ruling elite – they will cooperate instead of fight

      Weiss, 8-24-11 [Michael, director of communications at the Henry Jackson Society, “Regime change for Syria,” http://www.henryjacksonsociety.org/stories.asp?pageid=49&id=2384]

       

      Dr Radwan Ziadeh, the architect of the 150-strong … of belief, expression and practice of religion.”

       

      2nc --- Involvement

       

      US action is a kiss of doom

      Seelye, 9-1-11 [Kate, vice president of the Middle East Institute and a former NPR correspondent based in the Middle East, “Why Can't the Syrian Opposition Get Along?” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/09/01/why_cant_the_syrian_opposition_get_along?page=full]

       

      The NTC was created just 12 days after the start …, have largely remained anonymous to avoid arrest.

       

      US action destroys leaderhip that’s developing now

      Harling, 8-30-11 [Peter, Project Director, Iraq, Lebanon and Syria, International Crisis Group, “How not to prolong the Syrian agony,” http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/commentary/harling-how-not-to-prolong-the-syrian-agony.aspx]

       

      How not to prolong the agony? … coattails but in complementing it.

       

      CONCEDED --- Alawite defections are critical to regime collapse -- only domestic action motivates that -- external intervention discredits the opposition and increase mistrust.

      Kodmani, 7-31-11 [Bassma, executive director of the Arab Reform Initiative, “To Topple Assad, It Takes a Minority,” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/01/opinion/to-topple-assad-it-takes-a-minority.html]

      AFTER four months of popular demonstrations and … ranks and seal the regime’s demise.

       

      AND the buinsess class will stop supporting the regime -- US support changes their minds.

      Slim 11  adjunct research fellow at the National Security Studies Program at the New America Foundation and a scholar at the Middle East institute

      (Randa, Where’s Syria’s business community, Friday, Aug 5, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/05/wheres_syrias_business_community)

      To date, the cost for Syria's traditional business …s to do this job well without any outside assistance.

       

      They’re key to regime change.

      Knickmeyer, 9-5-11

      [Ellen, Special Correspondent, LA Times, “Syrian opposition hopes for coup as sanctions, protests grind on,” http://articles.latimes.com/2011/sep/05/world/la-fg-syria-protests-sanctions-20110905/2]

      Besides the security forces, analysts and Syrians … who make up Syria's merchant class.

       

      FINALLY US involvement fractures opposition groups further -- its a key dividing issue

      Landis, 8-29-11 [Joshua, Director: Center for Middle East Studies and Associate Professor, University of Oklahoma “Opposition Disunity Becomes the Problem as the West Gets its Ducks in a Row,” http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/?p=11683]

      The stumbling block in the way of … should prepare itself and NATO to intervene.

       

      That means opposition groups cannot even consider organization.

      Seelye, 9-1-11 [Kate, vice president of the Middle East Institute and a former NPR correspondent based in the Middle East, “Why Can't the Syrian Opposition Get Along?” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/09/01/why_cant_the_syrian_opposition_get_along?page=full]

      The NTC was created just 12 days after the …, have largely remained anonymous to avoid arrest.

       

      Anti-Americanism is entrenched in Syria -- the plan strengthens Assad legitimacy and causes backlash against the opposition.

      Husain, 8-23-11 [Ed, Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies -- CFR, “Why Assad Need Not Fear Qaddafi’s Fate,” http://www.cfr.org/syria/why-assad-need-not-fear-qaddafis-fate/p25702]

      I lived in Syria for two years and still visit …, such labels are powerful and destructive.

       

      2NC --- MEDIA BAD

       

      The turn outweighs --- media tech does more harm that good for opposition groups --- causes crackdowns and demobilizes the opposition --- status quo media solves.

      Ulfeder, 6-13-11 [Jay, former research director for the Political Instability Task Force, “The Illiberal Consequences of US Government Investments in Liberation Technology,” http://dartthrowingchimp.wordpress.com/2011/06/13/the-illiberal-consequences-of-u-s-government-investments-in-liberation-technology/]

      If foreign governments reliably … and aggression they will provoke in targeted regimes.

       

       

      1NR Cites

      1. plan text severs Syrian opposition groups –  voting issue because it allows them to spike out of disad links or counterplan competition – makes educational debate impossible

       

      2. Normal means – US assistance has been targeted at the MB – other groups have never been invited – London. Proves that the CP is functionally different than how the plan would work

       

       

      Should be evaluated through functional competition

       

      1. Infinite regression --- textual competition allows them to scramble words in the plan and play anagram games --- this destroys all CP competition and link turns predictability.

       

      2. Real world --- functional competition evaluates the plan on the merits of its action, not on semantics --- policy makers don’t disregard legislation by saying, “you used the words in my bill” --- encourages research into normal means and implementation that is valuable for advocating for certain policies.

       

      3. Plan vagueness --- textual competition encourages shorter plans so that you don’t have to defend against as many arguments --- vague policies create bad advocacy skills and undermine the quality of other case and CP debates.

       

      4. Textual competition leads to plan plus CPs --- we can PIC out of limiting portions of the plan like “in the US” --- that steals the whole 1AC.

       

      Heres more evidence – normal means is the MB

      World Tribune, 8-17-11

      [“Report: U.S. favors Muslim Brotherhood over pro-democracy Syrian opposition,” http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2011/me_syria1033_08_17.asp]

      WASHINGTON — The administration of President Barack … a significant portion of the Syrian people."

       

       

      London, 8-21-11

      [Herbert, Hudson Institute, “US Betrays Syrian Opposition,” http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=45642]

      In an effort to understand and placate Syrian opposition groups, Secretary Clinton invited them to a meeting in Washington. Most of those invited, however, have links to the Muslim Brotherhood. Missing from the invitations are Kurdish leaders, Sunni liberals, Assyrians and Christian spokesmen. According to … democracy in a regime that invariably opposes this political view.

       

      turns the case, destroys post-transition stability.

      World Tribune, 9-23-11

      [“New secular opposition group in Syria opposes Islamist rule,” http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2011/me_syria1193_09_23.asp]

       

      Opposition sources have acknowledged … looks like the absolute majority," RPS said.

       

      auses civil war and destroys regional stability.

      Barry Rubin, Professor and Director of the Global Research in International Affairs Center of the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, Israel, Former Senior Fellow at Johns Hopkins Foreign Policy Institute, The Washington Institute, and CSIS, The Truth About Syria, 2007  p. 239

       

      The young in Syria, who have been exposed … Syria helps that group’s affiliate fight in Iraq.

       

       

       

       

       

      No evidence of sectarianism and people want peace

      Azem, 7-28-2011

      [Ibtisam, prominent Syrian opposition figure, Professor of Political Sociology at the Sorbonne, “The Syrian people will determine the fate in Syria: an interview whit Buhran Ghalyoun,” http://www.globalrights.info/index.php?view=article&catid=36:middle-east&id=1871:the-syrian-people-will-determine-the-fate-in-syria-an-interview-whit-buhran-ghalyoun&format=pdf&ml=2&mlt=&tmpl=]

       

      IA: What is your assessment of the fear of sectarian strife …is respected and is equal to others.

       

      No risk of US intervention -- despite political pressures.

      AP, 10-23-11

      [“McCain talks about military options in Syria,” http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/mccain-talks-about-military-options-in-syria/2011/10/23/gIQAl0Gf9L_story.html]

      SOUTHERN SHUNEH, Jordan — Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said Sunday … the kind of outside intervention that Libya’s opposition did.

       

       

      Assad will reform soon -- solves instability.

      Afrasiabi, 8-25-11

      [Kaveh L., Asia Times, “Does Gaddafi's fate await Assad?” http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MH25Ak01.html]

       

      But, in addition to purely military-strategic … in the Middle East.

       

      Don’t extend their Saudi-Iran scenario – even if the plan had some chance of solving –

      Multiple factors prevent ME prolif

      Lindsay and Takeyh 10 [James M., Senior Vice President, Director of Studies, and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair, Council on Foreign Relations, and Ray, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations, "After Iran Gets the Bomb," Foreign Affairs; Mar/Apr2010, Vol. 89 Issue 2, p33-49, EBSCO]

       

      Another danger that would have to be countered … sanctions that U.S. law imposed, or could impose, on nuclear proliferators.

       

       

      Saudi-Iran won’t get violent.

      Allison and Cordesman 10 (Marissa, intern; Anthony, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the CSIS. “U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States.” Center for Strategic and International Studies, December 6, 2010.)

       

      The Saudis  do not  directly confront Iran … and this necessitates the continuance of consultation between the two countries.”

       

       

      Economic collapse doesn’t cause war

      D. Scott Bennett and Timothy Nordstrom, February 2k. Department of Political Science Professors at Pennsylvania State. “Foreign Policy Substitutability and Internal Economic Problems in Enduring Rivalries,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Ebsco.

       

      In this analysis, we focus on using economic … demand a research design that can account for substitutability between them.




11/12/11
  • Shirley Round 4 1NC/Block vs. MSU GP

    • Tournament: Shirley | Round: 4 | Opponent: MSU GP | Judge: Delo

    • 1NC – INTERMEDIARIES

       

      A. Definitions

       

      1.  Its means belonging to.

      Macmillan Dictionary 09 [pg. http://www.macmillandictionary.com/dictionary/british/its]

      belonging or relating to a thing, idea, place, animal etc. 

       

      2.  USFG limits them to democracy assistance that belongings to either Congress, Executive or Judiciary.

      USLegal.com 11 [“United States Federal Government Law & Legal Definition,” pg. http://definitions.uslegal.com/u/united-states-federal-government/]

       

      The United States Federal Government …are reserved to the States or to the people.

       

      3. For means that the target country must be the exclusive destination of the assistance.

      Free Dictionary 11 [pg. http://www.thefreedictionary.com/for]

      for  (fôr; fr when unstressed)

      1.

      a. Used to indicate the …headed off for town.

       

      B. Violations

       

      1. democracy assistance is directed internally – to help domestic actors

      Lappin 10 – Visiting Scholar in the Faculty of Political Science @ University of Belgrade [Richard Lappin (PhD Candidate in the Centre for Peace Research and Security Studies @ University of Leuven, Belgium & Participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE/ODIHR and Carter Center.)“What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation1,” Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, Vol.4, No.1, May (2010)

       

      Finally, on the positive side, … within a broader democracy promotion paradigm. Pg. 188-189

       

      C. Vote Negative

       

      2. Strategic differentiation makes it impossible for us to develop a case hit against every possible intermediary.

      Carothers 09 – Vice-president and Director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Program @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace [Thomas Carothers, “Democracy Assistance: Political vs. Developmental?,” Journal of Democracy, Volume 20, Number 1 January 2009]

       

      As the field of international democracy …. and the developmental approach.

      DA – SAUDI

       

       

      Current US democracy rhetoric concedes to Saudi interests – they won’t tolerate US-imposed democratic reform

      Karasik 8/1/11 (Theodore, Director of Research and Development at the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis in Dubai and Beirut. “A Conversation with Dr. Thedore Karasik of INEGMA on the ‘Arab Spring’.” Saudi-US Relations Information Service, August 1, 2011. http://www.susris.com/2011/08/01/a-conversation-with-dr-theodore-karasik-of-inegma-on-the-arab-spring/.)

       

       SUSRIS: Let’s talk about … but at their own pace and scope.

       

      Saudi Arabia’s committed to controlling Egyptian reform – they’ll challenge US efforts

      Strasser 11 (Max, news editor at the English edition of Al-Masry Al Youm, Egypt’s leading independent newspaper, has written for Foreign Policy, the Christian Science Monitor, among others. “Egypt’s Foreign Policy Shift Could Face Saudi Roadbloack.” World Politics Review, May 12, 2011. http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8821/egypts-foreign-policy-shift-could-face-saudi-roadblock.)

       

       The Saudis have already … perceives a threat to regional stability.

       

      It drives Saudis to proliferate

      Guzansky 8/1/11 (Yoel, research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University. "TEHRAN TESTS SAUDIS' NERVE ON NUKES", LEXIS, SRM)

       

      UNTIL recently it appeared … Saudi Arabia was to build 16 nuclear reactors at a cost of more than $US300 billion.

       

       

      Saudi prolif spurs regional arms race

      Bowman 08 (Bradley, International Affairs Fellow at the CFR. “Chain Reaction: Avoiding a Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East.” Report to the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, February 2008. http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CPRT-110SPRT39674/html/CPRT-110SPRT39674.htm.)

       

      A Saudi nuclear weapon might …. Arabia would pursue a nuclear weapon and take steps to decrease this likelihood.

       

       

      Middle East prolif escalates and goes nuclear

      Edelman et al 11 (Eric S., Distinguished Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Andrew Krepinevich, President of the CSBA. Evan Montgomery, Research Fellow at the CSBA. “The Dangers of a Nuclear Iran: The Limits of Containment.” Foreign Affairs, January 1, 2011. http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67162/eric-s-edelman-andrew-f-krepinevich-jr-and-evan-braden-montgomer/the-dangers-of-a-nuclear-iran.)

       

      More important, emerging nuclear … triggering a regional nuclear war.

       

       

       

      1NC – POLITICS

       

      Government will be funded now – new budget fights cause a shutdown

      RT 11-4 [Dysfunctional Congress threatens another government shut-down, http://rt.com/usa/news/congress-government-shutdown-budget-579/]

      The White House says that the odds …. long-term, year-long compromise in over 900 days.

       

      Democracy promotion sparks political backlash – seen as new spending measures

      Benderey and Stone 5-18-11 [Jennifer and Andrea, “Obama Middle East Speech: President Will Announce Billions In Economic Aid to Egypt, Tunisia,” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/18/obama-middle-east-speech-billions-aid_n_863927.html]

      None of the money requires ….surface with similar objections to erasing Egypt's debt.

       

      Government shutdown causes cyber-terror

      Sideman 11 [Alysha, 2-23, Federal Computer Week Contributor, “Agencies must determine computer security teams in face of potential federal shutdown” http://fcw.com/Articles/2011/02/23/Agencies-must-determine-computer-security-teams-in-face-of-shutdown.aspx?Page=1]

      With the WikiLeaks hacks and other … face of an attack, reports Federal Computer Week.

       

      Great power escalation

      Fritz 09 [Jason, researcher for International Commission on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament, former Army officer and consultant, and has a master of international relations at Bond University, “Hacking Nuclear Command and Control,” July,  http://www.icnnd.org/latest/research/Jason_Fritz_Hacking_NC2.pdf]

      This paper will analyse the threat of cyber … command and control centres directly.

       

      Jacks the economy

      AFP 10 [Debt battle could lead to government shutdown, 11-7, http://www.hindustantimes.com/Debt-battle-could-lead-to-government-shutdown/Article1-622970.aspx]

      Whatever the outcome of the political … is not going to offset that," he said.

       

      Economic decline causes war – studies prove

      Royal 10 [Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises, in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215]

      Less intuitive is how periods …debate and deserves more attention.

       

      1NC – CP

       

      Text: The U.S. should –

      -           Expand cooperation on renewable energy technology and efficiency standards with India

      -           Cooperate over the supply of energy resources from the Gulf to India and the United States

      -           Pressure Myanmar from pursuing acquisitions of dangerous weapons with India

      -           push to launch a global internet freedom initiative with India,

      -           offer to formalize trilateral security cooperation between India, Japan, and the U.S.

      -           encourage NATO to formalize security dialogue with India. We reserve the right to clarify

       Twining 11  (Daniel, Senior Fellow for Asia – German Marshall Fund of the United States and Richard Fontaine, Senior Fellow – Center for a New American Security, “The Ties that Bind? U.S.—Indian Values-based Cooperation”, Washington Quarterly, Spring, http://www.twq.com/11spring/docs/11spring_Twining_Fontaine.pdf)

       

       Development Assistance

      Long a recipient of foreign ….do common threats and interests.

       

      BROTHERHOOD ADVANTAGE

       

       

      Egypt-Israel war unlikely

      Lachman 11 (Sol Lachman, Political Commentator “Why a new Israeli-Egyptian War isn’t likely”, http://thejewishreporter.com/2011/05/11/why-a-new-israeli-egyptian-war-isnt-likely/)

       

      The polls notwithstanding, hating …., but it’s not springtime for Peace in the Middle East.

       

      Won’t escalate

      Takeyh et al 7 Steven A. Cook (fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations) Ray Takeyh (fellows at the Council on Foreign Relations) and Suzanne Maloney (senior fellow at Saban Center) June 28 2007 “Why the Iraq war won't engulf the Mideast”, International Herald Tribune

       

      Finally, there is no precedent … from enveloping the entire Middle East.

       

       

      Brotherhood says no

      Brown 8/9/11, Carnegie Scholar and Senior Associate - Middle East Program - Carnegie Endowment, professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University (Nathan J, What Does the U.S. Want to Talk to the Brotherhood About? National Interest, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=45312&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CarnegieEndowmentForInternationalPeaceGeneralPublicationsAndEvents+%28DC+-+General+Publications+and+Events%29)

       

      What explains the awkwardness … have arisen in political analysis in the United States over the years.)

       

      The MB can’t be moderated – empirics

      Meir-Levi 11 [David, “Obama, Al-Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood,” 8-1, http://www.aina.org/news/20110801102431.htm]

       

      It is important to recall …. sticks make it change its core beliefs?

       

       

      Brotherhood won’t win in the elections – consensus of experts

      Al Masryal 9-30 [Egyptian Newspaper, Experts: Brotherhood will not get more than 25% of parliamentary seats, http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/500667]

      A number of experts …. from the Freedom and Justice Party.

       

      Attacks against Israel won’t escalate – only small scale proxy wars

      Sappenfield, 06  - staff writer (Mark, Christian Science Monitor, “Wider war in Middle East? Not likely”, 6/18, lexis)

       

      Of the dangers presented by …It has continually fired rockets into northern Israel.

       

       

       

      RELATIONS

       

      Not anthropogenic

      Paterson 11 [Norman R. Paterson, Consulting Geophysicist, Global Warming: A Critique of the Anthropogenic Model and its Consequences, Geoscience Canada 38.1, March, http://www.pgw.on.ca/pdfs/GlobalWarming.pdf]

      The fact that the world has … since about 2002 (Archibald 2006; Fig. 2).

       

      Already strategic

      Mancuso 8 (Mario, Under Secretary of Commerce, "The Future of the U.S.-India High Technology Relationship", http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:3zvsJ6zId3QJ:www.bis.doc.gov/news/2008/mancuso06052008.htm+united+states+india+relationship+resilient&cd=4&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&source=www.google.com)

       

      The strength of today’s …. healthy, and resilient than ever before.

       

      Single issues don't affect - broader cooperation based on universal values

      Twining, ‘11

      [Daniel, Senior Fellow for Asia at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, former adviser of South Asian policy in the DOS and Richard Fontaine, Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, foreign policy adviser to Senator John McCain, "The Ties that Bind? U.S.-Indian Values-based Cooperation," Spring, http://www.twq.com/11spring/docs/11spring_Twining_Fontaine.pdf]

       

      The president’s remarks constituted … Isn’t that something? Isn’t that something?’’ 4

       

      Burma doesn’t want a nuclear weapons program

      Vancouver Sun ‘9  (Bill Tarrant, “Nuclear-armed Myanmar poses proliferation risk; North Korea reportedly is providing help for fellow military dictatorship's drive to build a bomb by 2014”, 8-12, L/N)

      The Sydney Morning Herald reported … weapons, maybe even missile parts or technology.

       

       

      Global warming is incoherent ---- there is no such thing as global temperature

      Essex et al in ‘7

       

      (Chris, Prof. Applied Math @ U. Western Ontario, Ross McKitrick, Assistant Prof. Econ @ U. Guelph, and Bjarne Andersen, Prof. Physics @ Niels Bohr Institute @ U. Copenhagen, Journal of Non-Equilibrium Thermodynamics, “Does a Global Temperature Exist?” 32, http://www.reference-global.com/doi/pdf/10.1515/JNETDY.2007.001)

      Ranking a particular type of field …. attaching a label to, respectively, a positive or negative trend in one particular average.

       

      MB says no

      Brown 8/9/11, Carnegie Scholar and Senior Associate - Middle East Program - Carnegie Endowment, professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University (Nathan J, What Does the U.S. Want to Talk to the Brotherhood About? National Interest, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=45312&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CarnegieEndowmentForInternationalPeaceGeneralPublicationsAndEvents+%28DC+-+General+Publications+and+Events%29)

       

      What explains the awkwardness on …. in political analysis in the United States over the years.)

       

      The MB can’t be moderated – empirics

      Meir-Levi 11 [David, “Obama, Al-Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood,” 8-1, http://www.aina.org/news/20110801102431.htm]

       

      It is important to recall that … or sticks make it change its core beliefs?

       

       

       

       

      INDIAN ENERGY

       

      India will say no

      Bagehi 11 [Indrani, “Muslim Brotherhood seeks India help for polls in Egypt,” 2-28, http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2011-02-28/india/28641172_1_egypt-elections-post-mubarak-muslim-brotherhood]

       

      The Brotherhood was banned in Egypt …. but there is no decision on that yet, said sources.

       

       

      Deterrence checks Indo-Pak escalation

      Malik in ’03 (Mohan, Professor of Security Studies at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, Asian Affairs, An American Review, “The Stability of Nuclear Deterrence in South Asia: The Clash between State and Antistate Actors”, Volume 30, Issue 3, Fall ,Proquest)

       

      India and Pakistan's past behavior …. induce similar stabilizing effects in South Asia.

       

      No risk of a shutdown of oil

      Cook and Cohen, 11 – * Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow For Middle Eastern Studies, Council On Foreign Relations ** Adjunct Fellow, Council On Foreign Relations (Steven and Jarod, “Media Conference Call: Tunisia - Repercussions for the Region,” January 20th, 2011, http://www.cfr.org/democracy-and-human-rights/media-conference-call-tunisia---repercussions-region/p23849)

       

      As far as disrupting oil, very … open and keep operating is the Suez Canal.

       

      No Asia wars -- international organizations and stability.

      Desker, ‘8

      [Barry, Dean of the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, At the IISS-JIIA Conference 2-4 June 2008, “Why War is Unlikely in Asia: Facing the Challenge from China”, http://www.iiss.org/conferences/asias-strategic-challenges-in-search-of-a-common-agenda/conference-papers/why-war-in-asia-remains-unlikely-barry-desker/]

       

      War in Asia is thinkable but … like the United States will be to embark on a course of self-restraint.

       

      Doesn’t solve conflict

      Gelpi and Greico 05, Associate Professor and Professor of Political Science, Duke University

       (Christopher, Joseph,  “Democracy, Interdependence, and the Sources of the Liberal Peace”, Journal of Peace Research)

       

      As we have already emphasized, …. level of trade dependence.

       

      Trade wars don't escalate

      Bearce in ‘3

      (David, Associate Prof. Pol. Sci. @ U. Pittsburgh, International Studies Quarterly, “Grasping the Commercial Institutional Peace”, 47:3, Blackwell-Synergy)

       

      Even as we accept that such trade … highly contentious territorial disagreements.

       

       

       

      ***2NR***

       

      2NC T – No Intermediary Cites

       

      Third – joint program assistance through foreign countries is statutorily defined as not US action.

      Mitchell & Phillips, 2008 [Lincoln A., associate research scholar at Columbia University's Harriman Institute, David L., director of the Program on Conflict Prevention and Peacebuilding at. American University, THE NATIONAL COMMITTEE ON AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY, Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies – Colombia University, The Atlantic Institute of the United States, “ENHANCING DEMOCRACY ASSISTANCE,” January, http://www.acus.org/files/publication_pdfs/65/Enhancing%20Democracy%20Assistance.pdf]

      Even when most of their funding … and responsive fashion.

       

       

      Identical cases of democracy assistance will be construed differently by each implementer.  It proves our cross application argument.

      Burnell 07 - Professor of Politics @ University of Warwick [Peter Burnell, “Does International Democracy Promotion Work?,” Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik, Discussion Paper, 17/2007]

       

      There is a confusing lexicon of terms – …, by the different parties to the relationship. Pg. 1-2

       

      B. There are thousands of possible AFFs under their interpretation and no academic literature to support them.

      McFaul et al. 09 – Professor of Political Science @ Stanford University [Michael McFaul (Former Director of Stanford’s Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, Amichai Magen  (Lecturer in Law @ Stanford Law School) & Kathryn Stoner-Weiss (Professor of International Policy Studies at Stanford University), “Evaluating International Influences on Democratic Transitions: Concept Paper,” Stanford’s Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, 2009,  pg. http://iis-db.stanford.edu/res/2278/Evaluating_International_Influences_-_Transitions_-_Concept_Paper.pdf]

       

      A second shortcoming stems from the fact that the …of the external environment with domestic processes. Pg. 7-8

       

      The lack of comparative studies literature or common research agenda makes this the worst of all possible worlds.  We will have a topic with lots of AFFs but no academic or peer-reviewed literature to support most of them.  This proves that their interpretation will inevitably shift the debates away from the Mideast and towards discussions about US cooperation with the intermediary.

      Stahn & van Hüllen 07 - Research Associate for the Collaborative Research Project @ Free University Berlin & Research Associate for the Otto Suhr Institute of Political Science @ Free University Berlin [Andreas Stahn and Vera van Hüllen, Paper prepared for the European Union Studies Association (EUSA), Tenth Biennial International Conference, May 17-19, 2007, Montreal, Canada, pg. http://aei.pitt.edu/7911/1/hullen-v-03e.pdf]   

       

      It is no big news anymore to state that … even fewer attempts at theorization. Pg. 1

       

                 

      Third – the NED’s relationship with the federal government proves our interpretation – both the intermediary and the actors in the target countries are grantee.  The best-case scenario is that the AFF gives democracy assistance to two grantees – one that’s topical and one that’s not. 

      Carothers 94 – Senior associate @ Carnegie Endowment and Co-director of its Democracy Project. [Thomas Carothers, “The NED at 10,” Foreign Policy, No. 95 (Summer, 1994), pp. 123-138]

       

      Another criticism of the … democracy assistance programs in its particular areas of expertise. Pg. 133

       

      AT: We Meet Its – We are Demo Assistance

       

      First – the assistance that goes to the intermediary is not democracy assistance.  It must go to the target country to be democracy assistance.

      Carothers 09 – Vice-president and Director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Program @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace [Thomas Carothers, “Democracy Assistance: Political vs. Developmental?,” Journal of Democracy, Volume 20, Number 1 January 2009]

       

      Method of supporting democracy: In this conception of … field by securing and guaranteeing fair procedures for the democratic actors and by checking the power of the nondemocratic actors. Pg. 7

       

      Second – use of an intermediary makes the AFF democracy promotion.  Assistance demands that the aid be given directly to actors in the target country.

      Quigley 97 – Executive Director of the Global Alliance for Workers and Communities [Kevin F.F. Quigley (Former director of public policy @ the Pew Charitable Trust), For Democracy’s Sake: Foundations and Democracy Assistance in Central Europe, 1997, pg. 9]

       

      Another problematic issue is whether these programs … Central Europeans in their own efforts to develop more democratic societies.

       

      Third – Democracy assistance can only be given to domestic actors.

      Lappin 10 – Visiting Scholar in the Faculty of Political Science @ University of Belgrade [Richard Lappin (PhD Candidate in the Centre for Peace Research and Security Studies @ University of Leuven, Belgium & Participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE/ODIHR and Carter Center.)“What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation1,” Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, Vol.4, No.1, May (2010)

       

      Finally, on the positive side, there is the distinct instrument … a broader democracy promotion paradigm. Pg. 188-189

       

      2NC – Their CI

       

       

      Fourth – direct grants will be used.  They are normal means.  

      Carothers 99 – Co-director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Project @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace [Thomas Carothers (Vice President of global policy @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Aiding Democracy Abroad: The Learning Curve, 1999, pg. 271]

       

      Direct grants are typically employed … institutions in transitional countries, but usually an American intermediary group oversees implementation of the project.

       

      for means on the ground

      Lappin, 2010

      [Richard, PhD candidate, Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven in Belgium, has participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE, Carter Center, visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade under the JoinEU-SEE program, “What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation,” http://www.cejiss.org/sites/default/files/8.pdf]

      Democracy assistance can be most … media groups and political parties.

       

      Third – they undermine our DA ground without providing any educational value – we will only learn about what fails.

      Carothers & Ottaway 05 - Director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Project @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace & Professor of Middle East politics @ Johns Hopkins University [Thomas Carothers (Vice president of global policy) & Marina Ottaway (Senior Associate), “Getting To The Core,” Uncharted Journey: Promoting Democracy in the Middle East, Edited By Thomas Carothers & Marina Ottaway, 2005, pg. 256 ]

       

      Indirect approaches to … change and will probably not be more successful in the future.

       

      Fourth – broad interpretations are worse for the AFF - definitional confusion undermines the success and credibility of democracy assistance.

      Lappin 10 – Visiting Scholar in the Faculty of Political Science @ University of Belgrade [Richard Lappin (PhD Candidate in the Centre for Peace Research and Security Studies @ University of Leuven, Belgium & Participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE/ODIHR and Carter Center.)“What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation1,” Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, Vol.4, No.1, May (2010)

       

      This article has examined the emergence of … means will remain improbable. Pg. 194

       

      Fifth – lack of definitional clarity undermines policy implementation.

      Crawford 01 – Lecturer in Development Studies @ University of Leeds [Gordon Crawford, Foreign Aid and Political Reform: A Comparative Analysis and Political Conditionality, 2001, pg.29-30]

       

      A range of analysts have commented that a feature of … are insufficiently well defined.

       

      2NC – Normal Means

      Third – they are wrong. Direct grants are normal means.  

      Carothers 99 – Co-director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Project @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace [Thomas Carothers (Vice President of global policy @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Aiding Democracy Abroad: The Learning Curve, 1999, pg. 271]

       

      Direct grants are typically … in transitional countries, but usually an American intermediary group oversees implementation of the project.

       

      Fourth – the list of possible countries is almost limitless – we will enter this list into evidence.

      NRC 08 [National Research Council of the National Academies (Committee on Evaluation of USAID Democracy Assistance Programs), Improving Democracy Assistance: Building Knowledge Through Evaluations and Research, 2008]

       

      Some of the other major … of government and impartial rule

       

      And those could go through numerous NGOs.

      Mitchell & Phillips, 2008 [Lincoln A., associate research scholar at Columbia University's Harriman Institute, David L., director of the Program on Conflict Prevention and Peacebuilding at. American University, THE NATIONAL COMMITTEE ON AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY, Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies – Colombia University, The Atlantic Institute of the United States, “ENHANCING DEMOCRACY ASSISTANCE,” January, http://www.acus.org/files/publication_pdfs/65/Enhancing%20Democracy%20Assistance.pdf]

      US Mechanisms The US Government … strategic questions and specific programs.

       

      The length of this chart sums up the topic under the AFFs interpirtation.

      Melia 05 [Thomas O., Institute for the Study of Diplomacy Walsh School of Foreign Service Georgetown University, “The Democracy Bureaucracy: The Infrastructure of American Democracy Promotion,” September, http://www.princeton.edu/~ppns/papers/democracy_bureaucracy.pdf]

      The pre-existing assets the Bush … approaches to democratization more broadly.

       

      2NC – The CP

       

      Odds of the war going nuclear are ZERO.  Their high probability assessment is media hype 

      Enders 02 [David, “Experts say nuclear war still unlikely,” Michigan Daily, 1/30. http://www.michigandaily.com/content/experts-say-nuclear-war-still-unlikely.]

       

      University political science Prof. … sides are looking for ways out of the current tension," Lieberthal said.

      _______

      * Ashutosh Varshney - Professor of Political Science and South Asia expert at the University of Michigan

      * Paul Huth – Professor of International Conflict and Security Affairs at the University of Maryland

      * Kenneth Lieberthal - Professor of Political Science at the University of Michigan

       

      No South Asian war—deterrence checks

      Malik in ‘03

      (Mohan, Professor of Security Studies at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, Asian Affairs, An American Review, “The Stability of Nuclear Deterrence in South Asia: The Clash between State and Antistate Actors”, 30:3, Fall ,Proquest)

       

      India and Pakistan's past behavior shows … induce similar stabilizing effects in South Asia.

       

      Even if they win full-scale nuclear war, our impacts outweigh—12 million will die at most

      New York Times 02 (Thom Shankar, “12 Million Could Die at Once in an India-Pakistan Nuclear War”, May 27, L/N)

       

      An American intelligence assessment, … but go in and help with the victims and to clean up."

       

       

       

       

      ***1NR***

       

      US-Saudi key to protect Gulf oil flows

      Cordesman 10 (Anthony, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS. “U.S.-Saudi Security Cooperation and the Impact of U.S. Arms Sales.” CSIS, September 14, 2010. http://csis.org/publication/us-saudi-security-cooperation-and-impact-us-arms-sales.)

       

      This aspect of U.S.-Saudi cooperation … the Saudi Red Sea Fleet.

       

      AND good relations prevent oil shocks

      Oil and Gas Journal 11 (reporting by Sam Fletcher, senior writer. March 28, "A 'proxy war' in Bahrain", Proquest.)

       

      "The [friendly] relationship between …backseat under these circumstances."

       

       

      Strong relations prevent OPEC switch

      Shipley 7 (Tyler, Ph.D. candidate in the Dept. of Political Science at York University. “Currency Wars: Oil, Iraq, and the Future of US Hegemony.” Studies in Political Economy: 79, 2007. http://spe.library.utoronto.ca/index.php/spe/article/view/5194.)

       

       If that were not enough, a major …. open for a switch in the future?

       

       

      Link Debate

      Arab Spring is key to Saudi perception of security – key to relations

      Financial Times 11 (reporting by Anna Fifield. June 16, "Arab spring tests US-Saudi relationship" http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4082dc70-984d-11e0-ae45-00144feab49a.html#axzz1SlOYMHrW.)

       

      “I think the administration is lucky … to Saudi Arabia. “It was jarring for them.”

       

       

      US democracy promotion in the Mideast destroys Saudi trust in US security guarantee

      Amos 11 (Deborah, award-winning reporter on the Middle East, member of the CFR. “Response To Arab Uprisings Causes U.S.-Saudi Rift.” NPR, April 6, 2011. http://www.npr.org/2011/04/06/135183927/response-to-arab-uprisings-causes-u-s-saudi-rift.)

       

      At the same time, the Saudis are …… to Middle East uprisings.

      *Alterman – Director of the Middle East Program at the CSIS

       

       

      Support for revolts cause Saudis to lose faith in US security guarantee

      Al-Motairy 11 (Sami F., Commander, Royal Saudi Naval Forces, Master’s candidate at the Naval Postgraduate School. “The Gulf Cooperation Council and the Challenges of Establishing and Integrated Capability for Upholding Security.” Naval Postgraduate School, June 2011. http://edocs.nps.edu/npspubs/scholarly/theses/2011/June/11Jun_Al_Motairy.pdf.)

       

       The third factor that alarmed the …. intervention against Al Qaddafi’s regime.

       

      Saudis view democratic regime change as an existential threat – fear a domino effect

      Ayoob 11 (Mohammed, university distinguished professor of IR at Michigan State. “The GCC Shows Its True Colors.” Foreign Policy, March 16, 2011. http://www.pomeps.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/POMEPS_BriefBooklet5_SaudiArabia_web.pdf.)

       

      But these are secondary explanations. The … has clearly shown this true colors.

       

      NYT 11 (“Interests of Saudi Arabia and Iran Collide, With the US in the Middle.” New York Times, March 17, 2011. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/18/world/18diplomacy.html.)

       

      Beyond that, the United States has long viewed … actually the path to Mubarak’s fate.”

       

      Uniqueness

       

      Here’s more evidence – taking a neutral stance in the sq

      Bremmer 11 (Ian, president of the Eurasia Group, political risk research and consulting firm. “Washington’s stark choice: Democracy or Riyadh.” Financial Times, March 17, 2011.

       

      A clear break in the relationship is unlikely… region and for the dollar as the primary reserve currency.

       

      No MENA democracy aid now – if there is its small and sluggish now

      David Rosenberg (Columnist for the Jerusalem Post) September 13, 2011 “Doubts surround aid to Arab Spring countries” http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=237759&R=R3

      Urgently needed funds haven't arrived yet; …. London’s Financial Times reported on September 7.

       

      Support for democratic groups destroys credibility

      Bar ’11, director of studies at the Institute for Policy and Strategy (Shmuel, America’s Fading Middle East Influence, Hoover, 4/1/11, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/73161)

       

      The Arab revolts and democratization….has been dramatically degraded.

       

       

       

      No Iran heg.

      Rahigh-Aghsan and Jakobsen ’10, Assistant Professor, Department of Society and Globalization, Roskilde University; Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Copenhagen (Ali and Peter Viggo, The Rise of Iran: How Durable, How Dangerous? MIDDLE EAST JOURNAL M Volume 64, No. 4, autumn 2010, ebsco)

       

      Abstract: Iran is viewed by ….the Obama Administration’s engagement strategy.1

       




11/12/11
  • KU PW vs Emory CP

    • Tournament: Pittsburgh Round Robin | Round: 1 | Opponent: KU PW | Judge: Atchison

    • 1NC: Democratic Assistance T, Orientalism K, E-Governance CP, EU CP, Payroll Tax Cut DA and On Case

      2NC: Orientalism K

      1NR: E-Governance CP

      2NR: E-Governance CP

      Democracy assistance is most precisely defined as the direct transfer of funds, expertise and material to democratic groups already working towards democratic change.

       

      Lappin 10 [Richard, PhD candidate at the Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium, What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post Conflict Approaches to Democratisation, http://www.cejiss.org/sites/default/files/8.pdf]

       

      Towards an Improved Understanding of Post-Conflict Democracy Assistance --- a very precise instrument within a broader democracy promotion paradigm.

      Democracy assistance promotes chauvinist nationalism --- justifies global violence and intervention.

      Guney 10 [Aylin Güney is a member of Department of Political Science and Public Administration at Bilkent University and is the author of numerous articles, AND** Fulya Gokcan, “The ‘Greater Middle East’ as a ‘Modern’ Geopolitical Imagination in American Foreign Policy” Geopolitics, Vol. 15]

       

      As mentioned above--- US extra-territorial activities.

       

      Orientalist forms of security guarantee genocidal conflicts -epistemological exclusion lays the groundwork for physical violence.  

      Pinar Batur, PhD @ UT-Austin – Prof. of Sociology @ Vassar, ‘7 [“The Heart of Violence: Global Racism, War, and Genocide,” in Handbook of The Sociology of Racial and Ethnic Relations, eds. Vera and Feagin, p. 446-7]

       

      At the turn of the 20th century--- opened up with genocide, in Darfur.

       

      Reject the 1AC --- refusing to allow orientalist knowledge production in our social space is key to new alternatives.

      Sheehi 11 [Associate Professor of Arabic and Arab Culture at the University of South Carolina. His received his PhD in Near Eastern Studies from the University of Michigan. In addition to Islamophobia: The Ideological Campaign Against Muslims, he is the author of Foundations of Modern Arab Identity (University Press of Florida, 2004) internationally acclaimed author, scholar and activist, “The Social Relations of Islamophobia and the Role of the Academic”, May 1st, ]

       

      Indeed, even the most progressive area--- serve change both home and abroad

       

      The alternative is a pre-requisite to genuine engagement with the Middle East.

      Mandaville 7 [Alicia – Senior Policy Associate Millennium Challenge Corporation, Peter Mandaville – Founding Director George Mason’s Center for Global Studies, Introduction: Rethinking democratization and democracy assistance, Development 50 (1) p. 8-10]

       

      We turn now to the question of how contemporary practices--- everyday life and political lifeworlds in local settings.

      Text --- The United States federal government should offer to:

       

      --provide technical assistance and training to increase the capacity and performance of public agencies, especially the capacity of sub-national governments to obtain, allocate and monitor resources,

      --assist development of strategies for financing local government; 

      --assist development of the capacities of local governments and supporting groups and organizations to plan, initiate and implement local economic development efforts;

      --provide advice on merit-based civil service;

      --train host country public servants and participating citizens at all levels to design and operate sustainable finance and management systems; 

      --assist with clarification of roles and responsibilities for local governments vis-à-vis other levels of government, NGOs, and the private sector; and

      --provide aid for human-staffed access to governmental information in order to enhance transparency and accountability,

      --provide aid to promote citizens’ participation in local decision making and

      --to provide aid for increased staff and office locations to improve public service

       

      The CP does everything that normal means “transparent democratic assistance” does EXCEPT for “E-Governance” provisions, which it replaces with human-staffed service delivery --- we will insert this USAID list from their most recent policy manual on democratic governance into the debate.

      USAID’s list of things the plan does, 2009 [“A Guide to USAID’s Bureau for Democracy, Conflict and Humanitarian Assistance (DCHA)/Office of Democracy and Governance (DG) Activities”  ]

       

      IQCS FOR DEMOCRATIC LOCAL GOVERNANCE AND DECENTRALIZATION--- to improve public service

       

      E government is used for transparent government reform

      Lipchak and McDonald , 2003 [Electronic Government and Electronic Records: E-Records Readiness and

      Capacity Building http://www.irmt.org/documents/research_reports/e_discussions/IRMT_ediss_readiness.pdf]

       

      Trustworthy and accessible records--- citizen consultation and feedback, electronic voting, etc).

       

      The Net Benefit:  E-governance, particularly in the developing country context, will only CENTRALIZE power, INCREASE corruption and WORSEN service provision—we internal link turn the case on three different levels

      Schuppan, 2008 [Tino, a co-founder of the Institute for Electronic Government (www. ifg.cc) at the University of Potsdam, the first such institute of its kind in Germany. He obtained his master's degree and doctorate from the University of Potsdam, where he now lectures for several mid-carrier master's programs in public management and public governance. He has also given lectures at Cairo University, Oslo University, and Externado University of Columbia and has been a visiting researcher at the Sadat Academy in Cairo and at the Erasmus University in Rotterdam. Dr. Schuppan has consulted for several international organizations including various donor organizations and the European Commission. His research interests include public management and governance, E-Government, IT-enabled organizational forms and ICT for Development. His recent research work focuses on ICT for Development, ICT for rural areas, accountability, shared service centers, and network management. His research has been presented at leading conferences including the EGPA and IRSPM. In addition to serving on several conference committees, he is an editor of the German public management journal Verwaltung und Management and a member of the editorial board of the new journal ICT for Human Development.Institute for eGovernment, University of Potsdam Germany. ]

       

      Because the use of IT is determined by--- efficiency in government service

      Text: The European Union should provide support

       

      The EU should do the plan and take a leadership role – key to avoid US military and diplomatic overstretch.

      Hadar 11 (Leon T., Research fellow in foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, Libya Should Be Europe's Problem -- Not America's, March 16th, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12885)

       

      During his second year--- where their strategic interests lie.

      Payroll tax cut will pass but it’ll be a fight

      NYT 1-17 [JONATHAN WEISMAN, Parties Confident of Extending Payroll Tax Cut, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/18/us/politics/congress-sees-few-barriers-to-extending-payroll-tax-cut.html]

      With both parties largely in agreement--- This is going to be tougher than people think,” Mr. Van Hollen said.

       

      New controversial moves by Obama derail progress

      CNN 1-17 [Ted Barrett and Deirdre Walsh, Election-year politics will chart Congress' path this year http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/17/politics/congress-returns/index.html]

       

      The fight over extending a payroll tax cut--- political reasons," said Boehner spokesman Michael Steel

       

       

      Plan costs capital

      McLaughlin, contributing writer – The Washington Diplomat, 5/31/’11

      (Seth, “Key Foreign Policy Players Try to Master Capitol Hill,” The Washington Diplomat)

      But it's not just politicos in Washington--- expenses were trimmed by $39 million.

       

      Key to economy – consumer spending

      Ludwig 12/7 Eugene A. Ludwig, chief executive of the Promontory Financial Group, was the comptroller of the currency from 1993 to 1998. "Why the Fight Over the Payroll Tax Matters" Dec 7 www.nytimes.com/2011/12/08/opinion/why-the-fight-over-the-payroll-tax-matters.html

       

      THE payroll tax cut being debated in Congress--- effect on our economic recovery

       

      Economic collapse causes global nuclear war

      Mead 9—Senior Fellow in US Foreign Policy Studies @ Council on Foreign Relations

      Walter Russell, Only Makes You Stronger, The New Republic, 2-4-09, http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=1

       

      The greatest danger--- we may still have to fight.

       

       

      Cutbacks in consumer spending jeopardize clean energy investment – undermines ability to solve climate change

      IEA  09   International Energy Agency

      IEA Background paper for the G8 Energy Ministers’ Meeting May 24-25, 2009.  “The Impact of the Financial and Economic Crisis on Global Energy Investment,”

       

      How energy-related investment--- likely such a scenario will come to pass

       

       

      EXTINCTION

      JAGGER 08   Chair – World Future council

      (Bianca, CQ Congressional Testimony, “RENEWABLE ENERGY”, 3-6, L/N)

       

      If we go beyond the point where human--- with a renewable energy economy."

      Their democratic test case theory is flawed - Empirics don’t’ support

      ENTERLINE & GREIG  05  1.  Associate Professor International Relations Dept. of Political Science University of North Texas   2.   Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, University of North Texas

      [Andrew J. Enterline & J. Michael Greig, Beacons of Hope? The Impact of Imposed Democracy on Regional Peace, Democracy, and Prosperity, Journal of Politics, Nov2005, Vol. 67 Issue 4, p1075-1098, 24p]

       

      Having considered the relationship--- undermined rather than enhanced

       

      wont’ work – fear tampering

      CAROTHERS  06   VP for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.  Founder & Director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Program, Middle East Program, and Carnegie Europe.

      [Thomas Carothers, The Backlash Against Democracy Promotion, Foreign Affairs, March 2006 - April 2006]

       

      Although autocratic leaders regularly--- democracy also contribute to the misperceptions

       

      Arab Spring isn’t about the US – we’re irrelevant

      DALACOURA  12  Senior Lecturer in International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science

      [Katerina Dalacoura, The 2011 uprisings in the Arab Middle East: political change and geopolitical implications, International Affairs 88: 1 (2012) 63–79]

       

      Finally, the Arab revolts have had--- inaction towards Tunisia and Egypt. 59

       

      Cred doesn’t do anything

      Fettweis 10 [Christopher J., fifth year doctoral student in the University of Maryland's Department of Government and Politics. His primary interests include US foreign and national security policies. His dissertation, currently titled The Geopolitics of Energy and the Obsolescence of Major War, focuses on the relationship between oil and conflict. Mr. Fettweis has a BA in History from the University of Notre Dame, Threat and Anxiety in US Foreign Policy, April 2010 Survival, 52:2, 59 - 82]

       

      For individuals as well as states--- small the issue or large the odds.

       

      Obama won’t take credibility from Libya – he’s remaining low key 

      [QUINN  8 – 22 – 11 

      (Andrew, 2011, “Analysis: Libya's next phase carries risks for U.S.”, http://news.yahoo.com/analysis-libyas-next-phase-carries-risks-u-220511324.html)

       

      US President Barack Obama--- next phase as a test of Obama's leadership

       

      Libyan instability does not affect the rest of the region.

      Bandow 11 (Doug, Senior Fellow @ the Cato Institute, War in Libya: Barack Obama Gets in Touch With His Inner Neocon, March 19th, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/doug-bandow/war-in-libya-barack-obama_b_838049.html)

       

      What happens if troops sent--- not safeguard Benghazi.

       

       

       

       

       

      Transitional council infiltration makes long-term instability inevitable

      Lacher 11 (Wolfram, Researcher at SWP’s Middle East and Africa Division. “Libya After Qaddafi: State Formation or State Collapse?” German Institute for International and Security Affairs, March 2011. .)

      Old elites, new deal As outlined above,--- in certain tribal areas.

       

      Failed states don’t cause transnational problems – no empirical evidence

      Patrick, ‘11

      [Stewart, Research Fellow at the Center for Global Development, “Weak Links: Fragile States, Global Threats, and International Security,” Google Books]

       

      It has become commonplace--- obligations to citizens and the international community.

       

       

      Can’t solve – small arms diffusion and ideology

      Duncan 12-7-11 [Don Duncan, After the war, Libya battles to curb spread of arms, Deutsche Welle – German newspaper, http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,15583823,00.html]

      Amid the often messy post-Gadhafi--- give up their gun for ideological reasons.

       

      This prevents a transition to democracy

      PRI 12-9-11 [Libya struggling to gain control of thousands of illegal guns in homes, Public Radio International, http://www.pri.org/stories/world/africa/libya-struggling-to-gain-control-of-thousands-of-illegal-guns-in-homes-7368.html]

      But now that Moammar Gaddafi--- It’s not been easy.

       

      Plan doesn’t address unemployment – this prevents lasting solvency

      Messner 12-1-11 [J.J. Messner is a senior associate at the Fund for Peace. Michael Shank is U.S. vice president at the Institute for Economics and Peace; Messner and Shank: For Reconstruction, Put Libyans to Work, http://www.rollcall.com/issues/57_67/jj_messner_reconstruction_put_libyans_work-210673-1.html?pos=oopih]

      Plenty of attention is being--- of employment are critical now.

       

      External attempts to influence state-building viewed suspiciously as oil-grabbing

      Lacher 11 (Wolfram, Researcher at SWP’s Middle East and Africa Division. “Libya After Qaddafi: State Formation or State Collapse?” German Institute for International and Security Affairs, March 2011. .)

      External mediation may be needed to facilitate--- should take a back seat in negotiations over Libya’s future.

       

      Frozen assets prevent solvency – plan can’t overcome

      Shuaib 12-10 [Ali, Reuters, http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/12/10/uk-libya-assets-un-idUKTRE7B90MZ20111210]

       

      (Reuters) - Senior figures in Libya's new leadership--- flow of unfrozen assets to Libya.




01/21/12
  • Neg v. Harvard DT

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Topicality-

      Democracy assistance is most precisely defined as the direct transfer of funds, expertise and material to democratic groups already working towards democratic change.

      Lappin 10 [Richard, PhD candidate at the Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium, What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post Conflict Approaches to Democratisation, http://www.cejiss.org/sites/default/files/8.pdf]

       

      Towards an Improve-

      democracy promotion paradigm.

      Orientalism-

      Democracy assistance promotes chauvinist nationalism --- justifies global violence and intervention.

      Guney 10 [Aylin Güney is a member of Department of Political Science and Public Administration at Bilkent University and is the author of numerous articles, AND** Fulya Gokcan, “The ‘Greater Middle East’ as a ‘Modern’ Geopolitical Imagination in American Foreign Policy” Geopolitics, Vol. 15]

       

      As mentioned above, -S extra-territorial activities.

       

      Orientalist forms of security guarantee genocidal conflicts -epistemological exclusion lays the groundwork for physical violence.  

      Pinar Batur, PhD @ UT-Austin – Prof. of Sociology @ Vassar, ‘7 [“The Heart of Violence: Global Racism, War, and Genocide,” in Handbook of The Sociology of Racial and Ethnic Relations, eds. Vera and Feagin, p. 446-7]

      At the turn -with genocide, in Darfur.

       

      Reject the 1AC --- refusing to allow orientalist knowledge production in our social space is key to new alternatives.

      Sheehi 11 [Associate Professor of Arabic and Arab Culture at the University of South Carolina. His received his PhD in Near Eastern Studies from the University of Michigan. In addition to Islamophobia: The Ideological Campaign Against Muslims, he is the author of Foundations of Modern Arab Identity (University Press of Florida, 2004) internationally acclaimed author, scholar and activist, “The Social Relations of Islamophobia and the Role of the Academic”, May 1st, ]

       

      Indeed, even the- home and abroad.

      EU Counterplan

      The EU should do the plan and take a leadership role – key to avoid US military and diplomatic overstretch.

      Hadar 11 (Leon T., Research fellow in foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, Libya Should Be Europe's Problem -- Not America's, March 16th, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12885)

       

      During his second-strategic interests lie.

      PTC Politics-

      Payroll tax cut will pass but it’ll be a fight

      NYT 1-17 [JONATHAN WEISMAN, Parties Confident of Extending Payroll Tax Cut, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/18/us/politics/congress-sees-few-barriers-to-extending-payroll-tax-cut.html]

      With both parties-

      r. Van Hollen said.

      New controversial moves by Obama derail progress

      CNN 1-17 [Ted Barrett and Deirdre Walsh, Election-year politics will chart Congress' path this year http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/17/politics/congress-returns/index.html]

      The fight over -spokesman Michael Steel.

       

      Plan costs capital

      McLaughlin, contributing writer – The Washington Diplomat, 5/31/’11

      (Seth, “Key Foreign Policy Players Try to Master Capitol Hill,” The Washington Diplomat)

      But it's not just- by $39 million.

       

      Key to economy – consumer spending

      Ludwig 12/7 Eugene A. Ludwig, chief executive of the Promontory Financial Group, was the comptroller of the currency from 1993 to 1998. "Why the Fight Over the Payroll Tax Matters" Dec 7 www.nytimes.com/2011/12/08/opinion/why-the-fight-over-the-payroll-tax-matters.html

      THE payroll tax- our economic recovery.

       

      Economic collapse causes global nuclear war

      Mead 9—Senior Fellow in US Foreign Policy Studies @ Council on Foreign Relations

      Walter Russell, Only Makes You Stronger, The New Republic, 2-4-09, http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=1

      The greatest danger- have to fight.

       

      Cutbacks in consumer spending jeopardize clean energy investment – undermines ability to solve climate change

      IEA  09   International Energy Agency

      IEA Background paper for the G8 Energy Ministers’ Meeting May 24-25, 2009.  “The Impact of the Financial and Economic Crisis on Global Energy Investment,”

       

      Implications for energy security

      How energy-related-will come to pass.

       

      EXTINCTION

      JAGGER 08   Chair – World Future council

      (Bianca, CQ Congressional Testimony, “RENEWABLE ENERGY”, 3-6, L/N)

       

      "If we go - renewable energy economy."

      Conditions Counterplan-

      CP: The United States federal government should condition a substantial increase in its democratic advisory support for Libya on the proportional participation of women in democratic advisory sessions.

       

      Libyan women are excluded from politics in the status quo

      Jackson 1-9 [Flavia Krause-Jackson, writer for Bloomberg Businessweek, “Italy Lasy Among Libya Friends for Potential Oil Concessions,” ]

       

      One of the main - equal rights with men.

       

      Democracy Assistance should come with strong conditions on the inclusion of women’s groups—only this can guarantee continued women’s participation in politics

      Islam, 2011 [Shada, Brussells correspondent to Dawn, pakistans oldest and most widely read news publication, ]

       

       

      THE world’s richest- post-revolution Middle East.

       

       

      We’ll isolate three net benefits:

      First, Partiarchy—persons in powerful positions have a moral obligation to reject it—this is a decision rule

      Superson 09 [Anita, prof at UK, “Feminist Moral Psychology,” published in the Stanford Encyclopedia of Psychology, 1-30-09, http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/feminism-moralpsych/]

      Yet other feminists might-from the obligation.

       

      Second, Inclusion--Women’s inclusion is key to durable solvency for democracy and US influence—it’s the key issue

      Coleman, 2011 [Senior Fellow and Director of the Civil Society, Markets, and Democracy Initiative; Director of the Women and Foreign Policy Program, July 26th, ]

       

      As the political the Middle East.

       

      Third, US Credibility—American failure to prioritize women’s erodes belief in universal rights and undermines the US more generally

      Juul, 2011 [Peter Juul is a Policy Analyst at American Progress. ]

       

      Additionally, the Obama -  sweeping the region.

      2nc-Conditions, credibility 

      1nr- Eu/Case 




01/21/12
  • Round 5 Pitt RR - vs Missouri FK

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Round 5, Pitt RR

      Vs. Missouri FG, Judge: Watts

      “Box Score”

      1NC

      1.       Topicality – pre-existing movements

      2.       Orientalism

      3.       SCAF DA

      4.       Israel DA

      5.       PTC Politics – econ and warming impacts

      2NC

      1.       Solvency – Egypt say no / SCAF won’t step down à flips the case

      2.       SCAF DA

      1NR

      1.       Orientalism

      2NR

      1.       Say No

      2.       SCAF backlash – flips case

      3.       Orientalism K

      Citations

      Topicality 1NC

      Democracy assistance is most precisely defined as the direct transfer of funds, expertise and material to democratic groups already working towards democratic change.

      Lappin 10 [Richard, PhD candidate at the Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium, What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post Conflict Approaches to Democratisation, http://www.cejiss.org/sites/default/files/8.pdf]

      Towards an Improved Understanding of Post-Conflict Democracy Assistance By the end of the 1990s, the term ‘democracy assistance’ …very precise instrument within a broader democracy promotion paradigm.

      Vote negative --- alternatives are imprecise and unlimited. Predictable ground is impossible.

      ORIENTALISM 1NC

      Democracy assistance promotes chauvinist nationalism --- justifies global violence and intervention.

      Guney 10 [Aylin Güney is a member of Department of Political Science and Public Administration at Bilkent University and is the author of numerous articles, AND** Fulya Gokcan, “The ‘Greater Middle East’ as a ‘Modern’ Geopolitical Imagination in American Foreign Policy” Geopolitics, Vol. 15]

      As mentioned above, geopolitical codes such as the war on terrorism, …US world leadership and regional interests. That is why this theory constituted a solid ground for justification for the US extra-territorial activities.

      Orientalist forms of security guarantee genocidal conflicts -epistemological exclusion lays the groundwork for physical violence. 

      Pinar Batur, PhD @ UT-Austin – Prof. of Sociology @ Vassar, ‘7 [“The Heart of Violence: Global Racism, War, and Genocide,” in Handbook of The Sociology of Racial and Ethnic Relations, eds. Vera and Feagin, p. 446-7]

      At the turn of the 20th century, the “Terrible Turk” was the image that summarized the enemy of Europe and the antagonism toward the hegemony of the Ottoman Empire, … The 21st century opened up with genocide, in Darfur.

      Reject the 1AC --- refusing to allow orientalist knowledge production in our social space is key to new alternatives.

      Sheehi 11 [Associate Professor of Arabic and Arab Culture at the University of South Carolina. His received his PhD in Near Eastern Studies from the University of Michigan. In addition to Islamophobia: The Ideological Campaign Against Muslims, he is the author of Foundations of Modern Arab Identity (University Press of Florida, 2004) internationally acclaimed author, scholar and activist, “The Social Relations of Islamophobia and the Role of the Academic”, May 1st, http://www.jadaliyya.com/pages/TME1/1413/the-social-relations-of-islamophobia-and-the-role-]

      Indeed, even the most progressive area specialist domesticates for the mainstream media, …  intelligentsia who can serve change both home and abroad.

      ORIENTALISM – 1NR

      Your ballot should decide between competing epistemologies as a critical intellectual --- you can only make decisions on what you have agency over --- even if the plan was a good idea, there’s no chance the federal government would implement it --- that’s Sheehi.

      Reprogramming systems of representation is key to preventing imperialism and serial policy failure that turns the case.

      Bilgin 5 [Pinar, Assistant Prof of International Relations at Bilkent University, “Regional Security In The Middle East: A Critical Perspective”, pg. 12-15]

      Although the ‘Middle East’ preserved its position as the …, what they view as referent object(s), and how they think security should be sought in this part of the world.

      Role-playing encourages an intellectually bankrupt cult of expertise --- critically examining 1AC assumptions is more worthwhile.

      Biswas 7 [Shampa, Associate Professor of Politics @ Whitman, Ph.D. – Political Science @ the University of Minnesota, M.A. – International Relations @ Maxwell School of Citizenship – Syracuse University, M.A. – Economics @ the Dehli School of Economics – University of Dehli, B.A. – Economics @ St. Stephen's College – University of Dehli, Empire and Global Public Intellectuals: Reading Edward Said as an International Relations Theorist, Millennium 36 (1) p. 117-125]

      The recent resuscitation of the project of Empire should give International … in the most fundamental and important senses of the vocation.21

      Discount all 1AC predictions --- system complexity and artificial risk suppression reduce each causal link prediction to a coin flip. 

      Taleb 11 [Nassim Nicholas – Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University’s Polytechnic Institute, Mark Blyth – Professor of International Political Economy at Brown University, The Black Swan of Cairo How Suppressing Volatility Makes the World Less Predictable and More Dangerous, http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/ForeignAffairs.pdf]

      Why is surprise the permanent condition of the U.S. political and economic elite?. … With freedom comes some unpredictable fluctuation. This is one of life’s packages: there is no freedom without noise—and no stability without volatility.∂

      Israel DA – 1NC

      ISRAEL would be freaked out about the plan – see it as Obama abandoning them – they fear Iran

      STRATFOR  11  (5/25, In Arab Spring, Disagreement Blossoms Between Israel, U.S., http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical_diary/20110525-arab-spring-disagreement-blossoms-between-israel-us)

      Netanyahu’s speech before Congress focused extensively on the issue … guaranteed to be amenable to Israeli interests (and thus security).

      Israel beenfits from squo- perceives change as threatening

      LEVY  9 – 12 – 11  senior fellow and director of the Middle East Task Force at the New America Foundation

      [Daniel Levy, The Nation, “Can Tahrir Square Come to Tel Aviv?”, http://www.thenation.com/article/162964/can-tahrir-square-come-tel-aviv?page=0,1]

      Quietly over the past months, Israel’s strategy in the face of the Arab Awakening seems to have coalesced around a set of positions, none of which feature on the democracy-promotion end of the policy spectrum. … thoroughly discredited peace talks—will not be repeated.

      PTC Politics – 1NC

      Payroll tax cut will pass but it’ll be a fight

      NYT 1-17 [JONATHAN WEISMAN, Parties Confident of Extending Payroll Tax Cut, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/18/us/politics/congress-sees-few-barriers-to-extending-payroll-tax-cut.html]

      With both parties largely in agreement on a yearlong extension … than people think,” Mr. Van Hollen said.

      New controversial moves by Obama derail progress

      CNN 1-17 [Ted Barrett and Deirdre Walsh, Election-year politics will chart Congress' path this year http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/17/politics/congress-returns/index.html]

      The fight over extending a payroll tax cut and long-term … "The only way this process will not go smoothly and through regular order is if the White House chooses to disrupt it for political reasons," said Boehner spokesman Michael Steel.

      Plan costs capital

      McLaughlin, contributing writer – The Washington Diplomat, 5/31/’11 (Seth, “Key Foreign Policy Players Try to Master Capitol Hill,” The Washington Diplomat)

      But it's not just politicos in Washington and anxious Americans who … USAID operating expenses were trimmed by $39 million.

      Key to economy – consumer spending

      Ludwig 12/7 Eugene A. Ludwig, chief executive of the Promontory Financial Group, was the comptroller of the currency from 1993 to 1998. "Why the Fight Over the Payroll Tax Matters" Dec 7 www.nytimes.com/2011/12/08/opinion/why-the-fight-over-the-payroll-tax-matters.html

      THE payroll tax cut being debated in Congress is one of our last, best … have a disastrous effect on our economic recovery.

      Economic collapse causes global nuclear war

      Mead 9—Senior Fellow in US Foreign Policy Studies @ Council on Foreign Relations

      Walter Russell, Only Makes You Stronger, The New Republic, 2-4-09, http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=1

      The greatest danger both to U.S.-China relations and to American power … economy back on track, we may still have to fight.

      Cutbacks in consumer spending jeopardize clean energy investment – undermines ability to solve climate change

      IEA  09   International Energy Agency

      IEA Background paper for the G8 Energy Ministers’ Meeting May 24-25, 2009.  “The Impact of the Financial and Economic Crisis on Global Energy Investment,” http://www.iea.org/ebc/files/impact.pdf

      Implications for energy security… imports would not be curtailed as much. The faster the economic recovery, the more likely such a scenario will come to pass.

      EXTINCTION

      JAGGER 08   Chair – World Future council

      (Bianca, CQ Congressional Testimony, “RENEWABLE ENERGY”, 3-6, L/N)

      "If we go beyond the point where …, we must replace our carbon- driven economy with a renewable energy economy."

      SCAF D/A – 1NC

      US and SCAF have come to an agreement and SCAF is backing down on raids, but hasn’t ruled more out -- further backlash destroys relations.

      Myers & Kirkpatrick, 12-30-11 [Steven Lee, David D., NYT, “Egypt Vows to End Crackdown on Nonprofits,” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/31/world/middleeast/egypts-generals-intensify-campaign-against-nonprofits-activists-say.html]

      WASHINGTON — Egypt ’s military rulers privately signaled … diplomatic affront the raids had caused and their potential to sour relations significantly if they continued.

      SCAF doesn’t want to relinquish any control or freedom – they are gainst military rule of law programs

      Sayigh, 12-15-11[Yezid, senior associate at the Carnegie Middle East Center, “The Specter of “Protected Democracy” in Egypt,” http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2011/12/15/specter-of-protected-democracy-in-egypt/8akg]

      The SCAF also claims that protecting military expertise … not to mention to avoid being held accountable for past actions.

      That causes SCAF to kick us out of Suez.

      Jeffrey Martini, project associate at the RAND Corporation, and Julie Taylor, political scientist at the RAND Corporation, “Commanding Democracy in Egypt: The Military's Attempt to Manage the Future,” 8/25/2011, http://www.rand.org/commentary/2011/08/25/FA.html

      Yet the United States' capacity to advance democratization … an attitude that the United States can do little to change.

      Backlash crushes overall hegemony, causes Israel war, and prevents Iranian containment---it’s a bigger and faster internal link to the case

      WOOD 11 DAVID WOOD Chief Military Correspondent for Politics Daily “At Risk in Egypt's Turmoil: U.S. Military Access to the Middle East” www.politicsdaily.com/2011/02/05/at-risk-in-egypts-turmoil-u-s-military-access-to-the-middle-e/

      Three hundred combat-armed paratroopers from the 82nd … friendly relations between the [U.S. and Egyptian] services will continue.''

      2NC SCAF D/A

      SCAF backlash causes an anti-american campaign that destroys US cred and turns case

      Richter & Fleishman 11 Paul Richter and Jeffrey Fleishman, Los Angeles Times "U.S. pro-democracy effort rubs many in Egypt the wrong way" articles.latimes.com/2011/aug/10/world/la-fg-us-egypt-20110811

      Reporting from Washington and Cairo — Six months … between the ruling military council and political reformers before key national elections this fall.

      Military control solves the aff – maintains pro-US foreign policy.

      Omer Zarpli, worked at Carnegie and prepared research for Human Rights Agenda Association, “US-Egypt Relations After the Mubarak Government: What’s Next?” 5/4/2011, http://www.bilgesam.org/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=353:us-egypt-relations-after-the-mubarak-government-whats-next&catid=77:ortadogu-analizler&Itemid=147

      During the protests, the army acted as a neutral buffer between the people and Mubarak. As Islam Lotfi of MB argues, this was a move that proved that they weren’t …. This signifies that the US-Egypt relations won’t change radically in the foreseeable future.

      SCAF will backlash to assistance and shut down aid providers -- turns the case.

      Myers & Kirkpatrick, 12-30-11 [Steven Lee, David D., NYT, “Egypt Vows to End Crackdown on Nonprofits,” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/31/world/middleeast/egypts-generals-intensify-campaign-against-nonprofits-activists-say.html]

      The certification, not expected before January at the earliest,…  They are required to get licenses that are almost never issued, and the vast majority depend almost entirely on foreign financing, which is tightly regulated.

      ON CASE – TURKEY ADV – 1NC

      Turkey’s rebuilding relations with Israel

      Bennis 11 - Fellow @ Institute for Policy Studies [Phyllis Bennis, “Turkish Democracy Gives Rise to Turkish Power,” The Real News, Wednesday, 13 July 2011 21:12, pg. http://therealnews.com/t2/component/content/article/51-phyllis/695-turkish-democracy-gives-rise-to-turkish-power]

      The summer of 2011 is presenting a number of new problems for Turkish foreign policy.. …player no doubt are having some impact on decision-making in Ankara as well.

      Turkish power prevents a destabilizing security competition in the Balkans

      Tesfa-Yohannes 11 – Research Associate @ BİLGESAM: Bilge Adamlar Stratejik Araştırmalar Merkezi [Athina W. TESFA-YOHANNES, “Turkey’s Interaction with Other Actors in the Balkans,” BİLGESAM: Bilge Adamlar Stratejik Araştırmalar Merkezi, Tuesday, 17 May 2011 10:36, pg. http://tinyurl.com/3fw6cyg]

      Aside from Russia, Turkey is the second external actor that … Balkan territory overrun by conflicting external influences and interests.

      Turkey prevents Iranian influence

      Çandar 09 – Columnist @ Radikal daily [Cengiz Çandar, “Turkey’s “Soft Power” Strategy: A New Vision for a Multi-Polar World,” SETA | Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, December 2009 | Brief No: 38, pg. http://setadc.org/pdfs/SETA_Policy_Brief_No_38_Turkeys_Soft_Power_Strategy_Candar.pdf]

      Turkey’s dynamism covers simultaneously the Levant and Mesopotamia of Antiquity, … presenting a counterweight to Iran in the region. Pg. 9

      No reason countering Turkey in Egypt prevents their aggression in Cyprus

      No risk of Greek-Turkey conflict

      Wilkinson 1999 (M. James; Former U.S. special Cyprus coordinator)  June “Moving Beyond Conflict Prevention to Reconciliation Tackling Greek-Turkish Hostility”http://wwics.si.edu/subsites/ccpdc/pubs/wilk/wilk.htm#aboutwilks

      The governments in Greece, Turkey, and Cyprus are not eager for a fight. … incident followed by initiation of combat operations with unforeseeable consequences.

      Albayrak evidence concedes Iran will lash out at Western influence – plan triggers same response

      Turkish soft power stabilizes Afghanistan

      Erman 10 - Turkey’s special coordinator for Afghanistan (91-03) [Aydemir Erman (Former Adviser in Afghanistan) “How Turkey’s Soft Power Can Aid NATO in Afghanistan,” New Perspective Quarterly, Spring 2010, pg. http://www.digitalnpq.org/archive/2010_spring/11_erman.html]

      The international community in general, and the allies in particular, … Afghanistan was a young nation. It can do so again today.

      The impact is regional war involving Russia, India, Iran and Pakistan – High risk of nuclear terrorism

      Hanrahan 11 - Former executive director of The Fund for Investigative Journalism [John Hanrahan (Reporter for The Washington Post, The Washington Star, and UPI) “The Afghanistan war and Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal,” Nienam Watchdog| July 06, 2011, pg. http://www.niemanwatchdog.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=background.view&backgroundid=561]

      Dr. Marvin Weinbaum, scholar-in-residence at the Middle East Institute think-tank, … “spreading militancy and extremism could place at risk Pakistan’s large nuclear arsenal.”

      ON CASE – ROL ADVANTAGE – 1NC

      No civil war -- parties will show restraint.

      Frisch, 11-21-11

      [Hillel, associate professor in political studies at Bar-Ilan University, … in the same way that the secular Turkish army has been targeted by the Islamist AKP-led government in Ankara.

      Rule of law isn’t modeled – zero warrant why aid in Egypt causes Yemen or Libya or other countries to change

      SCAF mismanagement guarantees instability.

      Dunne, 11-14-11

      [Michele, Director of the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East at the Atlantic Council, former Middle East specialist in the White House and Department of State, was a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and editor of the Arab Reform Bulletin before joining the Atlantic Council, holds a PhD in Arabic language from Georgetown University, “Egypt’s Imperiled Transition: Pakistan on the Nile,” http://www.acus.org/files/publication_pdfs/7631/111411_ACUS_Egypt.pdf]

      An argument might be made for prolonging military rule, …quickly as possible once attention has moved on.

      Long timeframe for solvency.

      Goldstone ’11, the Virginia E. and John T. Hazel, Jr., Professor at George Mason University's School of Public Policy (Jack A., Understanding the Revolutions of 2011, Foreign Affairs, May/Jun 2011, Vol. 90 Issue 3, p8-16)

      Those hoping for Tunisia and Egypt to make the transition to stable democracy quickly will likely be disappointed. Revolutions are just the beginning of a long process. …often corrupt and prone to authoritarian tendencies, but not aggressive or extremist.

      ON CASE – SOLVENCY – 1NC

      SCAF will say no -- don’t want US meddling and are suspicious of all assistance efforts.

      Huang, 12-9-11

      [Carol, The National, “Arab Spring brings distaste for US aid,” http://www.thenational.ae/news/uae-news/arab-spring-brings-distaste-for-us-aid]

      ABU DHABI // The US is having to adjust its approach to … money and influence coming from outside Egypt right now”, he said.

      That jacks credibility and eviscerates a successful democratic transition.

      Cook 11 (Steven A., Hasib J. Sabbagh senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, America Shouldn't Hijack Egypt's Revolution, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/03/09/america_shouldnt_hijack_egypts_revolution)

      Let's face it: Hosni Mubarak was a strategic asset to the United States. … it should allow Egyptians the opportunity to triumph or fail on their own.

      2NC – SAY NO DEBATE

      First is that generally Egypt says no even if the military might want to reform.

      a) National sovereignty.

      Allen 7/6 (Michael, Writer @ the Democracy Digest, Democracy assistance and the Arab Spring: solidarity vs. sovereignty?, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/07/democracy-assistance-and-the-arab-spring-solidarity-vs-sovereignty/)

      But the recent announcement that …of Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States and Iran.

      b) Stigma.

      Richter 8/10 (Paul & Jeffrey Fleishman, Staff writers for the Los Angeles Times, U.S. pro-democracy effort rubs many in Egypt the wrong way, http://articles.latimes.com/print/2011/aug/10/world/la-fg-us-egypt-20110811)

      Gen. Hassan Roweini, another member of the council, suggested that the … from the International Monetary Fund and $1 billion from the World Bank because the offers would require economic reform and transparency.

      c) Western meddling.

      Allam 7/5 (Hannah, Jewish World Review, Egypt rejection of U.S. aid a sign of future rifts?, July 5th, 3 Tamuz 5771, http://www.jewishworldreview.com/0711/egypt_rejects_us_aid.php3?printer_friendly)

      Remember how the 'Arab Spring' was going to strengthen the bond between Cairo and … Egypt can be a partner with the United States on equal footing — not as an agent."

      d) Polls prove.

      Allam 7/5 (Hannah, Jewish World Review, Egypt rejection of U.S. aid a sign of future rifts?, July 5th, 3 Tamuz 5771, http://www.jewishworldreview.com/0711/egypt_rejects_us_aid.php3?printer_friendly)

      While rebuffing Western offers of aid, Egyptians are strengthening ties with Persian Gulf … the invader, can do anything without American criticism."

      e) Ties to Mubarak.

      Lindner 7/21 (Bill, Writer @ the Islam Times, Seeking Independence From American Influence, Egyptians overwhelmingly Reject U.S. Aid, http://www.islamtimes.org/vdcaayna.49nym1gtk4.html)

      Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank compromised the country's sovereignty, … Is Egypt's rejection of U.S. aid a sign of things to come?

      f) Empirics

      Nixon 11 (Ron, Journalist @ The New York Times, U.S. Groups Helped Nurture Arab Uprisings, April 14th, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/15/world/15aid.html?pagewanted=all)

      A number of the groups and individuals …about the movement leaders’ links to Freedom House on his blog.

      Second SCAF in particular won’t step down ---

      A. Cntrol over resources and power hungry

      WRIGHT  1 – 21 – 12  joint fellow at the U.S. Institute of Peace and the Woodrow Wilson Center

      [Robin Wright, After Tahrir, Finishing the Revolution, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204555904577168811778035928.html]

      As clashes between protesters and security …"I can only pray that these generals pay the prices of these grievances with their own health."

      B. Control of press and media

      AHRAM 1 – 9 – 12  Nada Hussein Rashwan, Monday 9 Jan 2012, SCAF's violations resemble Mubarak's abuses: Amnesty Report, http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/31301/Egypt/Politics-/Egypt-SCAF-violations-resemble-Mubaraks-abuses-Amn.aspx

      Amnesty International’s 2011 Middle East report, …but nearly one year on millions of people continue to live in slums and in poverty, and wait for their voices to be heard.”

      C. Status quo policy

      UPI  1 – 9 – 12  [Groups press Egypt's SCAF on elections, http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2012/01/09/Groups-press-Egypts-SCAF-on-elections/UPI-36621326133644/]

      A coalition of 56 political parties … with members of Mubarak's former regime on trial for murder during the revolution, SCAF leaders aren't paying attention to the people.

      D. The Leading candidate isn’t even running because he thinks its hopeless

      AHRAM  1 – 21 – 12  [Ayman Nour puts presidential bid on hold in protest at SCAF, http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/32296/Egypt/Politics-/Ayman-Nour-puts-presidential-bid-on-hold-in-protes.aspx]

       Ayman Nour, founder of the liberal Ghad El-Thawra Party… to Support Ayman Nour as New President.




01/22/12

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