Quick Summary:
Plan: The United States federal government should support the European Union Election Observation Mission for Tunisia.

Advantage 1: US/EU Relations. Coordination of US/EU Democracy Assistance in Mideast key to retooling the alliance.  Sustainable, regular dialogue is what the evidence says.  Without coordination, EU becomes counterweight to US, calling it Democracy Competition. Two scenarios: Prolif and Palestine. Only balanced, coordination strategy solves.

Advantage 2: Democracy.  Support for underground democratic movements is crucial.  Needed in Tunisia to maintain progress toward democratization.  Coordination key.  Failure in Tunisia spills over causing collapse of other African states to be named later.  This causes disease spread, The Stand. Then some shit about Iran, essentially saying that democracy is key to containing Iran

1AC

Contention 1 – Strategic Partnership

The US-EU partnership is not strategic in the status quo – makes cooperation useless
Hamilton and Burwell 10 [Daniel S, Executive Director of the Center for Transatlantic Relations; Executive Director of the American Consortium on EU Studies; Austrian Marshall Plan Foundation Research Professor at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins, and Frances, Vice President, Director of the Program on Transatlantic Relations at the Atlantic Council, former executive director of the Center for International and Security Studies at the University of Maryland, "The Setting: The United States and Europe in a G20 World," Chapter 1, ]

The United States is the most important … do it, but it was painful. 

Coordination of democracy assistance to the Middle East is vital to retooling the alliance
Wittes and Youngs 9 [Tamara, deputy assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs at the U.S. Department of State, research fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institute, and Richard, director general of FRIDE, assistant professor at the University of Warwick, “Europe, the United States, and Middle Eastern Democracy: Repairing the Breach,” January, The Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, no 18, ]

Tensions between the United States …can, cautiously, be rebuilt.

Failure to change our stance towards Europe ensures they become a counterweight – accesses every impact
Stivachtis 10 – Director of International Studies Program @ Virginia Polytechnic Institute  [Dr. Yannis. A. Stivachtis (Professor of Poli Sci @ Virginia Polytechnic Institute & Ph.D. in Politics & International Relations from Lancaster University), THE IMPERATIVE FOR TRANSATLANTIC COOPERATION,” The Research Institute for European and American Studies, 2010,  pg. ]
 
There is no doubt that US-European … who do not share that vision.

Strategic relations vital to solving proliferation
Patrick 11 [Stewart, Senior Fellow and Director of the Program on International Institutions and Global Governance, “The Transatlantic Alliance Survives the Summer,” 8-30, ]

Nuclear nonproliferation remains a …transatlantic solidarity on nuclear matters.

Proliferation risks extinction – no benefit is worth risking humanity
Krieger 09  (David, Pres. Nuclear Age Peace Foundation and Councilor – World Future Council, “Still Loving the Bomb After All These Years”, 9-4,
Jonathan Tepperman’s article in....rational than Mr. Tepperman?

Abbas has abandoned diplomacy and is moving the battleground to multilateral forums. This makes a return to the negotiating table impossible. Coordination is key.
The Henry Jackson Society 9-6-11 [cross-partisan, British-based think-tank, “No Path To Peace: Potential Consequences Of Palestinian Unilateral Actions At UN General Assembly – Analysis,” 9-6, ]

Despite the continued categorical … victory for the Palestinian leadership.

Failure to find common ground in the Middle East allows countries to play the EU against the US
Amirah-Fernadez and Menedez 9 [Haizam, Seenior Analyst at the Mediterranean and Arab World Program at the Elcano Royal Institute for International and Strategic Studies and Irene, Juan March Foundation, “Reform in Comparative Perspective: US and EU Strategies of Democracy Promotion in the MENA Region after 9/11,” Journal of Contemporary European Studies, Vol. 17, No. 3, 325–338, December]

And yet, cooperation seems justified, …, at least at a regional level.

Only a coordinated strategy combines the carrots and sticks necessary to continue negotiations
Perthes 4 [Head of the Middle East and Africa Research Group at Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, the German Institute for International and
Security Affairs, Berlin, “America’s “Greater Middle East” and Europe: Key Issues for Dialogue,” 9-22, ] 

The Arab-Israeli conflict and peace …pluralistic system emerging from within.

The Israel-Palestine conflict is the root of all Middle East instability – risks global war
Rowley 07 [Charles K. Rowley, Professor of Economics at GMU, and Michael J. Webb, Fellow at the Regulatory Economics Group, 2007 Public Choice 132, “Israel and Palestine: The Slow Road to Peace or the Fast Track to Mutual Annihilation?” p. 8]

Since May 14, 1948, when ….so far has ever experienced.

Contention 2 – Democracy

Failure to synergize US and EU approaches means neither is very effective – the best way to ensure democracy is to support on the ground EU programs
Youngs 4 [Richard, Director of FRIDE, “Transatlantic Cooperation on Middle East Reform: A European Misjudgement?,” October, ]

Europeans risk becoming so fixated …. change in the Middle East.  

The EU has started election monitoring missions – but more support is necessary to ensure free and fair elections
Allen 11 [Michael, Editor of Democracy Digest, “Tunisia’s transition is no fait accompli: needs urgent assistance – and ‘strategic patience’,” 2-1, ]

“It is a mistake to consider … of political, economic and social reform.”

US-EU election monitoring needed to maintain progress towards democracy
Walker and Tucker 11 [Christopher, director of studies at Freedom House; Vanessa, managing editor of Countries at the Crossroads, Freedom House’s annual analysis of democratic governance, “Tunisia: The Arab Spring's Pivotal Democratic Example,” August, ]

POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR …. and other countries in the region.

Coordinated assistance is the decisive variable in ensuring a democratic Tunisia
Hamid 11 [Shadi, Director of Research at the Brookings Doha Center, Fellow at Saban Center for Middle East Policy, former Director of Research at the Project on Middle East Democracy, former Hewlett Fellow at Standard University’s Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, “When Pro-Western Regimes Fall: What Should the U.S. Do?,” 1-13, ]

One month ago, Tunisia …..” I suppose this is the time to stand?

Tunisian transition is underway but it will fail.  The short term risk is implosion – that risks instability and a reversion to authoritarianism.  That spills over to failed states throughout Africa
PACIELLO 11  Research associate at Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) in Rome and lecturer in Economic and Political Geography of Development at La Sapienza University of Rome
Maria Cristina Paciello, Tunisia:  Changes and Challenges of Political Transition, MEDPRO Technical Report No. 3/May 2011 

 4. Possible scenarios for the future As seen above, …whose political intentions are not yet clear. 

State failure in Africa risks migrations that cause nuclear wars & diseases
African Studies Centre et al 3 (The Transnational Institute, The Center of Social Studies, Coimbra University, and The Peace Research Center – CIP-FUHEM, “Failed and Collapsed States in the International System,” December, found at:

In the malign scenario of global developments …. direct attacks on their national security.

Diseases risk extinction
Souden 2k, David: former Research Fellow in History at Emmanuel College, Cambridge, consultant to the Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure [“Killer Diseases,” Factsheet, ]

Nature's ability to adapt is amazing - … eventual extinction of the human race.

Tunisia provides a model of democracy for the rest of the Arab world
Allen 11 [Michael, Editor of Democracy Digest, “Tunisia: home-grown revolution needs foreign support,” 1-27, ]

The turbulence has given rise to growing … parties, do not outmanoeuvre the moderates.”

Lack of an Arab model for democracy spells doom for other Middle East transitions
Diamond 10 [Larry, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and the Freeman Spogli Institute at Stanford University and director of Stanford's Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law, “Why Are There No Arab Democracies?,” Journal of Democracy, Volume 21, Number 1, January]

The second external factor is the ….more clearly to liberal-democratic norms.

US influence with emerging Middle East democracies key to contain Iran
Feltman 11 [Jeffrey, Assistant Secretary of States, "House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Middle East and South Asia Hearing;
on "Assessing U.S. Foreign Policy Priorities and Needs Amidst Economic Challenges in the Middle East." 3-10, Lexis]

The Middle East is in the …our other interests in the region.

Iranian hegemony causes nuclear war
Ben-Meir 07 (Alon Ben-Meir professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU, Realpolitik: Ending Iran’s defiance, 2007,

Feeling emboldened and unrestrained, …not halting its nuclear program. 

Plan: The United States federal government should support the European Union Election Observation Mission for Tunisia. 

Democracy solves conflict – multiple ways
LAPPIN  09  PhD candidate at the Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium under the supervision of Prof. Dr. Luc Reychler
Richard Lappin, What Democracy? Exploring the Absent Centre of Post-Conflict Democracy Assistance, Journal of Peace, Conflict and Development, Issue 14, July 2009,

Security
The relationship between democracy …, ―inhibits communal rebellion‖ 25 .

2Aeven minimal democratic gains contain liberatory potential. Jonas WOLFF Peace Research Inst. Frankfurt ‘8 “Three Tensions of External Democracy Promotion When a Universalist Script Clashes with Diverse Paths” http://www.wiscnetwork.org/ljubljana2008/papers/WISC_2008-328.pdf p. 16 The specific hegemonic interests ….thus, “something intrinsically revolutionary” (Guilhot 2005: 31). Perm – commitment to specific reforms key to break away from teleological liberal-democratic paradigm. Thomas CAROTHERS VP for Studies @ Carnegie Endowment for Peace ‘2 “The End of the Transition Paradigm” Journal of Democracy 13 (1) p. 17-19 It is hard to let go of the … between the ruling party and the state. AND Democratic support includes non-Western representational systems and identities. Richard YOUNGS Director of FRIDE and Associate Professor @ Warwick ’11 “Misunderstanding the maladies of liberal democracy promotion” http://www.fride.org/download/WP106_Liberal_Democracy2_jan11.pdf p. 9 A sixth point: the associated criticism …. bodies overseeing municipal level budgets. AND refusal of assistance is more imperialist Richard YOUNGS Director of FRIDE and Associate Professor @ Warwick ’11 “Misunderstanding the maladies of liberal democracy promotion” http://www.fride.org/download/WP106_Liberal_Democracy2_jan11.pdf p. 5-7 Third, central to critical …. captured by incumbent autocratic regimes. Iraq/Afghanistan comparison is a red-herring – failures of coercive regime change prove we should do case by case evaluation. Laurence WHITEHEAD Politics Fellow @ Nuffield College ‘9 “Losing ‘the Force’? The ‘Dark Side’ of democratization after Iraq” Democratization 16 (2) p. 237-238 In this exploratory article, I have …. merits careful monitoring in the years to come. Alternative cedes the political to neoconservative foreign policy of coercive leadership. Democracy offers an alternative to imperialism. Richard YOUNGS Director of FRIDE and Associate Professor @ Warwick ’11 “Misunderstanding the maladies of liberal democracy promotion” http://www.fride.org/download/WP106_Liberal_Democracy2_jan11.pdf p. 12-13 Current international political trends are complex …common or comprehensive new approaches.21 Disengagment with the democracy apparatus is not an option – saying the US should keep its hands off Tunisia promotes oppressive forms of autocracy. The Plan’s engagement reverses the paradigm of conditionality and challenges the neoliberal paradigm of democracy assistance. Larbi SADIKI Politics @ Exeter ‘11 http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/05/2011531132934920499.html Egypt and Tunisia are now officially ….and an incapacity to speak back. Ks prove we should supplement and reform democracy assistance, not abandon. Jonathan MURPHY Senior Lecturer in International Management @ Cardiff Business School ’10 “Democracy? That’s so last year”: exploring the backlash against democracy promotion” Paper presented to Critical Governance Studies conference Warwick University, December 13 – 14 2010 http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/wbs/projects/orthodoxies/papers/101213_muphy_j.pdf p. 16-19 The critiques of democratic development can…. a somewhat selective reading by Lazarus. Democracy assistance supports long-term sustainable solutions to poverty and exploitation. Their alternative quashes local choice. G. Shabbir CHEEMA Principal Adviser and Programme Director Division for Public Economics and Public Administration United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs AND Linda MAGUIRE Evaluation Specialist UNDP ‘1 unpan1.un.org/intradoc/groups/public/documents/un/unpan005781.pdf p. 10-11 While it is often claimed that … protracted poverty tend to be short-lived. You shouldn’t reject 1AC scholarship – their alternative’s reverse essentialism justifies autocratic oppression Fred HALLIDAY IR @ LSE ’93 “ ‘Orientalism’ and its Critics” British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies 20 (2) p. 159-161 The third difficulty with Said's approach is….cultural or even ethnic group.

Democracy K cites are above

CASE CARDS
Middle East conflict triggers nuclear warfare—end of the Cold War increased the risk of escalation
Primakov 9—President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation; Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences; member of the Editorial Board of Russia in Global Affairs., article is based on the scientific report for which the author was awarded the Lomonosov Gold Medal of the Russian Academy of Sciences in 2008 (Yevgeny, The Fundamental Problem, “The Middle East Problem in the Context of International Relations”, Russia in Global Affiars, Vol. 7, Number 3, July-September 2009, http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/105702/ichaptersection_singledocument/71a40dca-23cb-411d-9c5d-a7ce495e2522/en/12.pdf.] 

The Middle East conflict is … completely rule out such a possibility.

EU CP

AND US democracy assistance is key – no other type of aid is statistically significant
FINKEL, PÉREZ-LIÑÁN, & SELIGSON  07   1.  Daniel Wallace Professor of Political Science at the University of Pittsburgh.  2. associate professor of political science at the University of Pittsburgh. 3. Centennial Professor of Political Science and a fellow of the Center for the Americas at Vanderbilt University
[Finkel, Steven; Pérez-Liñán, Aníbal; Seligson, Mitchell, THE EFFECTS OF U.S. FOREIGN ASSISTANCE ON DEMOCRACY BUILDING, 1990-2003. World Politics59. 3 (Apr 2007): 404-421,423-.]

BASELINE MODELS: FREEDOM HOUSE AND POLITY IV
We present the estimation of … (both with standardized effects of .07).

AND democracy in the MENA region is the critical issue
Youngs 4 [Richard, Director of FRIDE, “Transatlantic Cooperation on Middle East Reform: A European Misjudgement?,” October, http://cddrl.stanford.edu/publications/transatlantic_cooperation_on_middle_east_reform_a_european_misjudgement/]

Clearly some fast-solidifying attitudes … American approaches to democracy promotion. 

MENA projects are vital to coordinating future assistance
MFAN 11 [“MFAN Principal Releases Report on Renewed U.S.-EU Development Dialgoue,” 6-30, http://www.modernizeaid.net/2011/06/]

In the face of trying … of current foreign assistance programs.

Democracy cooperation stabilizes the Black Sea region – It’s a conduit for instability throughout Eurasia
Garber 08 - Deputy Assistant Secretary of State [Judy Garber, “Transatlantic Perspectives on Black Sea Region: U.S. seeks to promote cooperation among countries in the region,” Keynote Address at the Woodrow Wilson Center Conference, 10 June 2008, pg. http://www.america.gov/st/texttrans-english/2008/June/20080612162948eaifas0.3606836.html#ixzz1S5cj0Z00]

The Black Sea lies at a … , and the broader Middle East.

Multiple scenarios for nuclear war
Amineh 03 – Professor of International Relations @ … .clingendael.nl/ciep/events/20030619/20030619_amineh.pdf]

The increasing involvement of the US, … war and crisis in Iraq.
*CEA = post-Soviet Central Eurasia
IRAN DA 

US is giving millions to Tunisia now – you have no offense
ARIEFF  6 – 27 – 11    Analyst in African Affairs – Congressional Research Service
[Alexis Arieff, Political Transition … ]

Congressman Howard Berman, the ranking … Ben Ali and family members.  102
 U.S. Assistance
U.S. aid is modest by … of refugees from neighboring Libya. 

Democracy in the Middle East checks the rise of Iran
Khalaji 11 [Mehdi, senior fellow at the Washington Institute, “Mideast Democracy Threatens Iran,” 4-14, http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2011/04/14/mideast_democracy_threatens_iran_99479.html]

Like all populist autocratic regimes, … at home, but also abroad.

No Green movement
Nikou and Bahari 6/9/11, Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention at the U. S. Institute of Peace; Iranian Canadian journalist (Semira N. and Maziar, Interview with Maziar Bahari, Iran Primer, http://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2011/jun/09/interview-maziar-bahari)

• What is the state of the opposition?
  We do not have a unified … change carefully and with trepidation.

Regime change doesn’t solve proliferation
Simanowitz 11 [Stefan, chairs the Westminster Committee on Iran, "Iran: The Green Movement and the Nuclear Issue," 6-21, http://www.towardfreedom.com/middle-east/2438-iran-the-green-movement-and-the-nuclear-issue]

Another potential problem for the … legitimacy of the government itself.”

DA – SKFTA DA 2AC

Plan doesn’t get drawn in to budget debates – its reallocated funds
Politico 11 [“Kerry, McCain, Lieberman push funds for Egypt, Tunisia,” 3-10, http://www.politico.com/blogs/glennthrush/0311/Kerry_McCain_Lieberman_push_funds_for_Egypt_Tunisia.html]

Sens. John Kerry (D-Mass.), Joe … to the Department of State.

No SKFTA – … tea baggers, unions, textile industry
Hooper 9-10 [Molly K., writer for The Hill, “Obama-backed trade pacts could be heavy lift for House GOP” http://thehill.com/homenews/house/180751-obama-backed-trade-pacts-could-be-heavy-lift-for-house-gop]
House Republican leaders face …senior members,” the source said.

Democracy promotion is bipartisan
Inboden 10 [William, Distinguished Scholar at the Strauss Center for International Security and Law at the University of Texas-Austin and a Non-Resident Fellow with the German Marshall Fund, “Across the aisle and across the Atlantic, a consensus on democracy,” 11-18, http://blog.gmfus.org/2010/11/across-the-aisle-and-across-the-atlantic-a-consensus-on-democracy/]

Meanwhile, notwithstanding the fact that … to human rights and democracy

Winners win – Obama needs to stand up to the GOP
Blow 9-9 [Charles, writer for the … ]

So why does it feel as …take fire from both sides.

No legislation – done internally
Arieff 6-27 [Alexis, Congressional Research Service analyst in African Affairs, Political Transition in Tunisia, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RS21666.pdf]

• In early June, USAID … Tunisia’s political transition totals $10 million. 109

Capital not relevant
Dickerson 9 (Neustadt, Professor of political science at Middlebury College and taught previously at Harvard University where he worked under the supervision of presidential scholar Richard Neustadt, 5/26/09, Matthew, Presidential Power: A NonPartisan Analysis of Presidential Politics, “Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power,” http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/05/26/sotamayor-obama-and-presidential-power/)

As for Sotomayor, from here the path toward almost certain confirmation goes as follows: the Senate Judiciary Committee is slated to hold hearings sometime this summer (this involves both written depositions and of course open hearings), which should lead to formal Senate approval before Congress adjourns for its summer recess in early August.  So Sotomayor will likely take her seat in time for the start of the new Court session on October 5.  (I talk briefly about the likely politics of the nomination process below).
What is of more interest … present Sotomayor as his nominee.

No risk of U.S.-China war
Bandow 3-7-08 (Doug, former senior fellow at the Cato Institute and former columnist with Copley News Service. “Turning China into the Next Big Enemy.” http://www.antiwar.com/bandow/?articleid=12472)

But the Defense Department is … to create a first strike capability.
 

TOPICALITY – DIRECT

1. We meet – standard template of assistance
   Amirah-Fernadez and Menedez 9 [Haizam, Seenior Analyst at the Mediterranean and Arab World Program at the Elcano Royal Institute for International and Strategic Studies and Irene, Juan March Foundation, “Reform in Comparative Perspective: US and EU Strategies of Democracy Promotion in the MENA Region after 9/11,” Journal of Contemporary European Studies, Vol. 17, No. 3, 325–338, December]

In terms of convergence, the … becoming increasingly ‘gradualist’.

AND election monitoring is direct
CAROTHERS  03  Sr. Associate at Carnegie – general DA expert
[Thomas Carothers- June 2003, IS GRADUALISM POSSIBLE? Choosing a Strategy for Promoting Democracy in the Middle East, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/wp39.pdf]

DIRECTLY SUPPORTING DEMOCRACY … not to Washington’s liking.

Its refers to the decision to support democracy – the design and implementation can be by others
Huber 8
[Daniela, Hebrew University of Jerusalem Department of International Relations, “Democracy Assistance in the Middle East and North Africa: A Comparison of US and EU Policies,” Mediterranean Politics, Vol. 13, No. 1, 43–62, March, p. 45-6, Informaworld]
Method looks at the way DA is. …. or an international partner.

for means on the ground
Lappin, 2010
[Richard, PhD candidate, Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven in Belgium, has participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE, Carter Center, visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade under the JoinEU-SEE program, “What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation,” http://www.cejiss.org/sites/default/files/8.pdf]
Democracy assistance can … media groups and political parties.

Aff ground – most carried out by third parties
Mitchell & Phillips (their author) 8 [Lincoln A., associate research scholar at Columbia University's Harriman Institute, David L., director of the Program on Conflict Prevention and Peacebuilding at. American University, THE NATIONAL COMMITTEE ON AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY, Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies – Colombia University, The Atlantic Institute of the United States, “ENHANCING DEMOCRACY ASSISTANCE,” January,http://www.acus.org/files/publication_pdfs/65/Enhancing%20Democracy%20Assistance.pdf]

USAID‘s DG efforts include …for their activities.

CASE 

Nuclear Iran causes Middle East proliferation – ends in nuclear war
Kittrie 7 [Orde, Associate Professor of Law at ASU, former Legal adviser at the Department of State, "SYMPOSIUM: A NUCLEAR IRAN: THE LEGAL IMPLICATIONS OF A PREEMPTIVE NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY: EMBOLDENED BY IMPUNITY: THE HISTORY AND CONSEQUENCES OF FAILURE TO ENFORCE IRANIAN VIOLATIONS OF INTERNATIONAL LAW," Syracuse Law Review, Lexis]

Another danger of Iran … result in nuclear war.

Increase in Iranian influence causes attacks on US bases – escalates to war
Kostev 11 [Victor, journalist and political analyst based in Tel Aviv, “Iran crisis close to climax?,” 7-2, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MG02Ak02.html

Yet Iraq arguably tops the list of American … as a casus belli against Iran.

DA – SKFTA DA 2AC

1. Plan doesn’t get drawn into budget debates – its reallocated funds
   Sheridan 11 [Mary Beth, “U.S. to give $20 million to help Tunisia’s fledgling democracy,” 3-23, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/us-to-give-20-million-to-help-tunisias-fledgling-democracy/2011/03/22/AB3VpxEB_story.html]

The State Department announced….Eastern affairs, who oversees the program.

20 million is going to Tunisia – hasn’t left yet.  Congress has been sent notification
THE INDEPENDENT  9 – 1 – 11  
 Counter-terrorism aid: Malta to receive $4.7m from US, Annaliza Borg, http://www.independent.com.mt/news.asp?newsitemid=131301

The funding comes … bordering Iran on the Caspian Sea.

2. No SKFTA – tea baggers, unions, textile industry
Hooper 9-10 [Molly K., writer for The Hill, “Obama-backed trade pacts could be heavy lift for House GOP” http://thehill.com/homenews/house/180751-obama-backed-trade-pacts-could-be-heavy-lift-for-house-gop]
House Republican leaders face … some are senior members,” the source said.

Democracy promotion is bipartisan
Inboden 10 [William, Distinguished Scholar at the Strauss Center for International Security and Law at the University of Texas-Austin and a Non-Resident Fellow with the German Marshall Fund, “Across the aisle and across the Atlantic, a consensus on democracy,” 11-18, http://blog.gmfus.org/2010/11/across-the-aisle-and-across-the-atlantic-a-consensus-on-democracy/]

Meanwhile, notwithstanding … to human rights and democracy

Winners win
Hunter 10 [Daily Kos Contributing Editor, Political death by a thousand cuts, http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/11/17/921164/-Political-death-by-a-thousand-cuts]
It may be a petty, minor thing, … losing pissant little power plays. 

No legislation – done internally
Arieff 6-27 [Alexis, Congressional Research Service analyst in African Affairs, Political Transition in Tunisia, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RS21666.pdf]

• In early June, USAID … political transition totals $10 million. 109

Capital not relevant
Dickerson 9 (Neustadt, Professor of political science at Middlebury College and taught previously at Harvard University where he worked under the supervision of presidential scholar Richard Neustadt, 5/26/09, Matthew, Presidential Power: A NonPartisan Analysis of Presidential Politics, “Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power,” http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/05/26/sotamayor-obama-and-presidential-power/)

As for Sotomayor, from here the …, in the decision to present Sotomayor as his nominee.

[Alliance Impact ] FTA not key to the alliance
Cooper et al 10 [William, Mark Manyin, Remy Jurenas, Michaela Platzer, Specialists in Trade + Asian Affairs @ Congressional Research Affairs, "The Proposed U.S.-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA): Provisions and Implications," 11-12, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL34330.pdf]

The United States and South Korea negotiated … Peninsula or in Northeast Asia.  

Obama spending all of his capital on jobs
US News 9-12 [Will Congress Pass Obama's Jobs Bill? http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2011/09/12/will-congress-pass-obamas-jobs-bill]
Obama is putting much … ready to hand him a win?"

No political capital
Kiely 9-5 [Patrick J. Kiely, Labor Day: The state of the union; http://www.journalgazette.net/article/20110905/EDIT05/309059996/1021/EDIT]
The Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential …. to near junk status.

CP – CONSULT THE EU 2AC
Resolved just means the committee voted for this resolution.
Webster’s Revised Unabridged Dictionary, 1998  (dictionary.com)
Resolved:
5. To express, as an opinion … (or, to appropriate no money).

Democracy assistance involves concessions
Burnell, 2000 [Peter, Professor of Politics, Dept. of Politics & International Studies, University of Warwick, England, “Democracy assistance: international cooperation for democratization,” p. 5, Google Books]

When defining democracy assistance …somewhat arbitrary judgments.

CP is worse– adds bureaucracy without increasing effectiveness
Ries 9 [Charles, Director of the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy; Senior Fellow, “U.S.-EU Responses to Globalization – Working Papers Organizing a More Strategic U.S.-EU Partnership,” 12-16, http://transatlantic.sais-jhu.edu/bin/u/h/us-eu_book_organizing_charles_ries.pdf]

1. The U.S.-EU relationship does not … the better the discussion. 

Consultation causes delay
Crook 96 (John R, Board of Editors at the American Society of International Law, “Current Development: The Fifty-First Session of the UN Commission on Human Rights, American Journal of International Law, January, accessed at Lexis)

In general, the enhanced EU …consumed in coordinating positions.]

Non-binding consultation solves the net benefit
Daily Oklahoman - 6-12-2001

WITH his arrival in Spain this morning, … ruffling some feathers along the way. 

Tunisian unrest provides recruitment ground
SEAQUIST  9 – 11 – 11  Assistant vp at AIR Worldwide overseeing the Boston-based catastrophe modeling firm's terrorism risk model
Jack Seaquist, PERSPECTIVES: Trying to quantify terror risks, http://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20110911/NEWS04/309119995?tags=|306|76|83|88#

Since the tragic events of Sept. 11, …., remains a real concern. 

CP – COOPERATION 

AND democracy in the MENA region is the critical issue
Youngs 4 [Richard, Director of FRIDE, “Transatlantic Cooperation on Middle East Reform: A European Misjudgement?,” October, http://cddrl.stanford.edu/publications/transatlantic_cooperation_on_middle_east_reform_a_european_misjudgement/]

Clearly some fast-solidifying attitudes …. approaches to democracy promotion. 

DA – USAID T/OFF

1. Normal means is unspent money
   Sheridan 11 [Mary Beth, “U.S. to give $20 million to help Tunisia’s fledgling democracy,” 3-23, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/us-to-give-20-million-to-help-tunisias-fledgling-democracy/2011/03/22/AB3VpxEB_story.html]

The State Department … state for Near Eastern affairs, who oversees the program.

Democracy spreads public services
THORNHILL, FINCHER, & ARAN 9 All Professors - Department of Biology, The University of New Mexico
[Randy Thornhill, Corey L. Fincher, Devaraj Aran, Parasites, democratization, and the liberalization of values across contemporary countries, Biological Reviews, Volume 84, Issue 1, pages 113–131, February 2009]

 (8) Early Western transitions towards democracy
Significant … mentioned above, limited the power of traditional authority (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Declaration_of_the_Rights_of_Man_and_of_the_Citizen).

4. Even if there is a tradeoff – it’d be from Yemen
WORLD TRIBUNE 9 – 9 - 11
http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2011/af_tunisia1132_09_09.asp

 The Pentagon proposal also …U.S. aid," the official said. 

T – QPQ 

c.i – direct and conditions are both democracy assistance
JICA, 2003
[Institute for International Cooperation – Japan International Cooperation Agency, “Roads to Democracy and Governance,” http://www.jica.go.jp/english/publications/reports/study/topical/roads/pdf/roads.pdf]

Trends in Democracy Assistance (Direct and Indirect Support) …. of decentralization as part of the democratic process20.

CASE

Democracy create deterrence – stop conflict by changing calculations of leaders
TERRY  07    Colonel, USMC Retired  
[James P. Terry, Foreword, Democracy and Deterrence: foundations for an Enduring World Peace by Dr. Walter Gary Sharp Sr.  Air University press, p. ix – x]

 The causes of armed conflict have …. and international lawyer alike. 

Democracy spurs growth – checks back conflict
LAPPIN  09  PhD candidate at the Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium under the supervision of Prof. Dr. Luc Reychler
Richard Lappin, What Democracy? Exploring the Absent Centre of Post-Conflict Democracy Assistance, Journal of Peace, Conflict and Development, Issue 14, July 2009, http://www.humansecuritygateway.com/documents/JPCD_ExploringAbsentCentrePostConflictDemocracyAssistance.pdf

In subsequent years, the …. the possibility of civil war.35

1NC – FREE MARKET CP

Elections are October 23
Ottaway 11 [Marina, “Tunisia: The Revolution is Over, Can Reform Continue?,” 7-13, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2011/07/13/tunisia-revolution-is-over-can-reform-continue/3ljo#]

For that reason, it is important … are in the government.

Plan is reallocated money
Sheridan 11 [Mary Beth, “U.S. to give $20 million to help Tunisia’s fledgling democracy,” 3-23, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/us-to-give-20-million-to-help-tunisias-fledgling-democracy/2011/03/22/AB3VpxEB_story.html]

The State Department announced …. who oversees the program.

DA – DIPLOMATIC CAPITAL (PP)
 EU-US cooperation vital to formulating a solution to the peace process
Pottering 11 [Dr. Hans-Gert, former President of the European Parliament and Chairman of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung and Massimo d’Alema, former Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Italy, “The need of Europe in the Middle East peace process,” January, http://www.kas.de/wf/doc/kas_21736-1522-2-30.pdf?110218103208]

The European Union bears the …. with Israel should be established. 

20 million is going to Tunisia – hasn’t left yet.  Congress has been sent notification
THE INDEPENDENT  9 – 1 – 11  
 Counter-terrorism aid: Malta to receive $4.7m from US, Annaliza Borg, http://www.independent.com.mt/news.asp?newsitemid=131301

The funding comes as part of a …. bordering Iran on the Caspian Sea.

DA – SKFTA DA 2AC

Other politics cites above

FEMA fight coming – huge fight ASAP
LAS VEGAS SUN  9 – 16 - 11
 Senate vote on FEMA funding sets stage for political battle, http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2011/sep/16/senate-vote-fema-funding-sets-stage-political-batt/

 Congress successfully averted one federal crisis on Thursday, but left another — which in turn leaves several others — unresolved.
Lawmakers in the Senate struck a deal late Thursday afternoon to fund the Federal Aviation Administration, saving 80,000 aviation and construction workers their jobs and avoiding another work stoppage on an air traffic control tower at McCarran International Airport.
But in passing a bill to fund the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the Senate set up another bitter political battle, because the House wants to spend half as much on disaster response as the bill approved.
“We can accomplish so much when we work together,” Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada said following the votes. It was a clear dig and a call to House Speaker John Boehner and the other Republican leaders in the House, who have been insisting on leveraging emergency aid with budget offsets.
The biggest offset proposed — amounting to $1.5 billion of their $3.7 billion plan for FEMA — is a cut from the Department of Energy’s program to help American car makers increase vehicle fuel efficiency.
FEMA funding is a matter of special urgency because the agency has been squeezed by the frequency and severity of recent natural disasters, from tornadoes in Joplin, Mo., to Hurricane Irene, which flooded large swaths of the East Coast last month.
“We need to get this relief to the Americans who need it as quickly as possible,” Reid said. “I hope our colleagues in the House will take up our bipartisan bill and pass it without delay.”

Won’t pass – democrats – PC won’t change minds
Good 9-17 [Chris, associate editor at The Atlantic, where he writes for the Politics channel, The Atlantic, Republicans Support Obama's Trade Agenda. Do Democrats? http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/09/republicans-support-obamas-trade-agenda-do-democrats/245248/]
Next week, Senate Majority Leader …. support among his Democratic allies.

ORIENTIALISM K 2AC
Epistemology doesn’t come first or shape reality
Wight ‘7 (Colin, Senior Lecturer in the Department of Politics at the University of Sheffield, “Inside the epistemological cave all bets are off” Journal of International Relations and Development (2007) http://www.ciaonet.org/olj/jird/jird_200703_v10n1_d.pdf)

In some respects, this might seem …descriptions of them.19

3. Perm – Tunisia provides the best starting point
Khatib 11 [Lina, Program Manager at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law at Stanford University, Research Associate at SOAS, University of London and a Research Fellow at the USC Center on Public Diplomacy at the Annenberg School, founding co-editor of the Middle East Journal of Culture and Communication, former editor of the Journal of Media Practice, “Tunisia: the house of cards,” 1-17, http://cddrl.stanford.edu/news/tunisia_the_house_of_cards_20110117/]

The United States is continuously … seemingly impenetrable regimes.

refusal of assistance is more imperialist
Richard YOUNGS Director of FRIDE and Associate Professor @ Warwick ’11 “Misunderstanding the maladies of liberal democracy promotion” http://www.fride.org/download/WP106_Liberal_Democracy2_jan11.pdf p. 5-7

Third, central to critical … democratisation are not to be captured by incumbent autocratic regimes. 

Aff: Emory CP

Round # 3  Tournament: Shirley

vs: JMU BW

Judge: Joel Lemuel

Plan Text: The United States federal government should support judicial independence measures for Tunisia in accordance with the European Union’s Neighborhood Action Plan.

1ac Advantages: EU-US strategic partnership, Tunistan democracy

2ac Offense: link turns on the politics DA, EU-US coordination key to Israel/ Palestine

1ar Strategy: Balkans scenario, EU-US partnership laundry list, Iran hegemony, Terrorism, Israel/palestine

2ar Strategy: Balkans, terrorism, Israel/Palestine

Wake EU 1AC

Plan – The United States federal government should support judicial independence measures for Tunisia in accordance with the European Union’s Neighborhood Action Plan.

Contention 1 – Strategic Partnership

The US-EU partnership is not strategic – makes cooperation useless.

Hamilton and Burwell 10 [Daniel S, Executive Director of the Center for Transatlantic Relations; Executive Director of the American Consortium on EU Studies; Austrian Marshall Plan Foundation Research Professor at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins, and Frances, Vice President, Director of the Program on Transatlantic Relations at the Atlantic Council, former executive director of the Center for International and Security Studies at the University of Maryland, "The Setting: The United States and Europe in a G20 World," Chapter 1, ]

The United States is the most important partner for the European Union. The EU, in turn, is the most important organization in the world to which the United States does not belong. In terms of values and interests, economic interactions and human bonds, the EU and the U.S. are closer to one another than either is ….t was painful.

Coordination of demo assistance is vital to retooling the alliance.

Wittes and Youngs 9 [Tamara, deputy assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs at the U.S. Department of State, research fellow at the at the Brookings Institute, and Richard, director general of FRIDE, assistant professor at the University of Warwick, “Europe, the United States, and Middle Eastern Democracy: Repairing the Breach,” January, The Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, no 18)

Tensions …., be rebuilt.

Joint action restores the alliance, which creates momentum for future policies.

Castello-Catchot 11 [Carles Castello-Catchot, assistant director of the Atlantic Council’s Strategic Foresight Project, “A Transatlantic Weakness to Avoid”, New Atlanticist Policy and Analysis Blog at Atlantic Council, 9-19-2011, http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/transatlantic-weakness-avoid]

The transatlantic … 9/11, the future is still ours to shape, and win.

A more strategic alliance solves all problems.

Stivachtis 10 – Director of International Studies Program @ Virginia Polytechnic Institute  [Dr. Yannis. A. Stivachtis (Professor of Poli Sci @ Virginia Polytechnic Institute & Ph.D. in Politics & International Relations from Lancaster University), THE IMPERATIVE FOR TRANSATLANTIC COOPERATION,” The Research Institute for European and American Studies, 2010,  pg. http://www.rieas.gr/research-areas/global-issues/transatlantic-studies/78.html]

There is no doubt that US-…re that vision.

And coordination of aid to the Middle East spills over to cooperation on other foreign assistance

MFAN 11 [“,” 6-30, ]

In the … foreign assistance programs.

That results in stabilization of the Balkans

Larrabee 11 [F.Stephen, Distinguished Chair in European Security at the RAND Corporation, former vice president and director of studies of the Institute of East-West Security Studies in New York, e served on the U.S. National Security Council staff in the White House as a specialist on Soviet-East European affairs and East-West political-military relations, “1. Unfinished business in Europe,” ]

The Western … stability there.

Nuclear war

Scherbak 08 – Advisor to the Chair of the Parliament of Ukraine [Yuri Scherbak (President of the Institute for Sustainable Development of Ukraine), Ten Theses about the Russian-Georgian Conflict: A View from Ukraine, Heinrich Boll Stiftung – Warsaw, Nov 2008, pg. ]

2. The war in Caucasus …. neighbors can lead to a new global conflict.  Pg. 2-3

Contention 2 – Democracy

Failure to synergize US and EU approaches means neither is very effective – supporting EU programs is key.

Youngs 4 [Richard, Director of FRIDE, “Transatlantic Cooperation on Middle East Reform: A European Misjudgement?,” October, ]

Europeans risk …. change in the Middle East. 

The EU has set up a template of democratic outreach for Tunisia but more needs to be done.

Koetsenruijter 11 [Adrianus, Chief of the EU delegation to Tunisia, “TUNISIA AND THE EU: WHAT NOW?,” ]

The revolution and …. and insecure countries can produce at your border.

Coordinated assistance in Tunisia is modeled.

Allen 11 [Michael, Editor of Democracy Digest, “Tunisia: home-grown revolution needs foreign support,” 1-27, ]

The turbulence has given rise to growing …., do not outmanoeuvre the moderates.”

Failure to reform the judiciary causes backsliding – prevents democracy and risks instability

PACIELLO 11  Research associate at Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) in Rome and lecturer in Economic and Political Geography of Development at La Sapienza University of Rome

Maria Cristina Paciello, Tunisia:  Changes and Challenges of Political Transition, MEDPRO Technical Report No. 3/May 2011

4. Possible scenarios for the future As …. intentions are not yet clear.

US influence with emerging Middle East democracies key to contain Iran

Feltman 11 [Jeffrey, Assistant Secretary of States, "House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Middle East and South Asia Hearing;

on "Assessing U.S. Foreign Policy Priorities and Needs Amidst Economic Challenges in the Middle East." 3-10, Lexis]

The Middle East …. our other interests in the region.

Iranian hegemony causes nuclear war

Ben-Meir 07 (Alon Ben-Meir professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU, Realpolitik: Ending Iran’s defiance, 2007, )

Feeling emboldened …. of not halting its nuclear program.

AND that causes Saudi Arabia to form a nuclear pact with Pakistan

Stratfor 6 [“Saudi Arabia: Seeking Protection From a Nuclear Iran,” 2-2, ]

Saudi Arabia is caught … West should not be dismissed as mere posturing.

Causes Indo-Pak war and escalating regional nuclear wars 

Edelman et al 11 [Eric, former , former ,  former Principal Deputy Assistant to the Vice President for National Security Affairs, visiting scholar at the at the  (SAIS), and Distinguished Fellow at the , Andrew Krepinevich, Evan Montgomery, “The Dangers of a Nuclear Iran: The Limits of Containment,” Foreign Affairs, vol 90, issue 1, Jan/Feb, Ebsco]

The Islamabad ….weapons vulnerable to attack or theft.

Indo-Pak war causes extinction

Robinson 11 [David A, FDI Associate, “India’s Rise as a Great Power,  Part Two: The Pakistan-China-India Dynamic,”  7-14, Future Directions International, ]

India is four times … and global consequences.

Backsliding creates perfect conditions for Al-Qaeda’s resurgence.

Hague 11 [William, “Helping the Arab Spring succeed is Britain's cause too,” 8-8, ]

There will be …. have the option of inaction.

Independent judiciaries prevent terrorism.

FINDLEY & YOUNG  11  1. Assistant Prof Poli Sci at Brigham Young University 2. Assistant Prof of Public Affairs at American University

Michael G. Findley,  Joseph K. Young, Terrorism, Democracy, and Credible Commitments, International Studies Quarterly, Volume 55, Issue 2, pages 357–378, June 2011

 What ….mai, King, and Stuart 2007).

That causes terrorist attacks against Europe.

LE SAGE july 11  PhD. Senior research fellow in the Center for  Strategic research, institute for national Strategic Studies, at the national Defense University

[Dr. Andre Le Sage,  The Evolving Threat of al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, Strategic Forum – National Defense University.  July 11,  INSS – Institute for National Strategic Studies]

Future Scenarios African …. would become enormously complex.

Terrorists are acquiring WMDs

Kimery 9 (Anthony, leading authority on homeland security, HS Today, 8/7, http://www.hstoday.us/content/view/9715/150/)

CBRN = Chemical, Biological, Radiological And Nuclear

'We assess Al Qaeda will continue …. contacts and/or sleeper cells in the US.”

Nuclear terrorism causes extinction

Hellman 8 (Dr. Martin E., professor emeritus of electrical engineering at Stanford University, The Bent, Spring 2008, http://www.nuclearrisk.org/paper.pdf)

The threat of nuclear …. preventing World War III is a necessity—not an option.

Retaliation causes extinction.

Rhodes 9, 12-14-09
Richard, affiliate of the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University, Former visiting scholar at Harvard and MIT, and author of “The Making of the Atomic Bomb” which won the Pulitzer Prize in Nonfiction, National Book Award, and National Book Critics Circle Award. “Reducing the nuclear threat: The argument for public safety”

The response was very …. the name of sending a message.

Bioweapons cause extinction.

Matheny 07 – Research associate with the @  [Jason G. Matheny (PhD candidate in Applied Economics and Master’s in Public Health at ), “Reducing the Risk of Human Extinction,”  Volume 27, Number 5, 2007, pg. http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/website/resources/publications/2007_orig-articles/2007-10-15-reducingrisk.html]

Of current …. pandemics (Lam, Franco, & Shuler, 2006).

---Nukes are easy to aquire.

Arbuckle 8 (Larry J. Arbuckle, Lieutenant, United States Navy, June 2008, “THE DETERRENCE OF NUCLEAR TERRORISM THROUGH AN ATTRIBUTION CAPABILITY,” )

Of course to use a nuclear …., they will have a difficult, but by no means insurmountable task in constructing one (Hecker, 2006, p 121).

Lack of an Arab model for democracy spells doom for other Middle East transitions

Diamond 10 [Larry, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and the Freeman Spogli Institute at Stanford University and director of Stanford's Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law, “Why Are There No Arab Democracies?,” Journal of Democracy, Volume 21, Number 1, January]

The second external …. to commit more clearly to liberal-democratic norms.

Democracy solves conflict – multiple ways

LAPPIN  09  PhD candidate at the Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium under the supervision of Prof. Dr. Luc Reychler

Richard Lappin, What Democracy? Exploring the Absent Centre of Post-Conflict Democracy Assistance, Journal of Peace, Conflict and Development, Issue 14, July 2009,

Security

The relationship …..inhibits communal rebellion‖ 25 .

***2AC***

TOPICALITY – IT’S/FOR

1. We meet – standard template of assistance

Amirah-Fernadez and Menedez 9 [Haizam, Seenior Analyst at the Mediterranean and Arab World Program at the Elcano Royal Institute for International and Strategic Studies and Irene, Juan March Foundation, “Reform in Comparative Perspective: US and EU Strategies of Democracy Promotion in the MENA Region after 9/11,” Journal of Contemporary European Studies, Vol. 17, No. 3, 325–338, December]

In terms of convergence….becoming increasingly ‘gradualist’.

2. C/I – the USfg has to provide assistance to organizations on the ground within the target country in order to foster democracy

a. Its refers to the decision to support democracy – the design and implementation can be by others

Huber 8

[Daniela, Hebrew University of Jerusalem Department of International Relations, “Democracy Assistance in the Middle East and North Africa: A Comparison of US and EU Policies,” Mediterranean Politics, Vol. 13, No. 1, 43–62, March, p. 45-6, Informaworld]

Method looks at the way DA is implemented. ….receiving country, or an international partner.

b. for means on the ground

Lappin, 2010

[Richard, PhD candidate, Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven in Belgium, has participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE, Carter Center, visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade under the JoinEU-SEE program, “What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation,” http://www.cejiss.org/sites/default/files/8.pdf]

Democracy assistance can be most …groups, media groups and political parties.

CASE

Asked for assistance – they would definitely say yes

WSJ, 2011.

(Joe Lieberman. Oct. 26, 2011. “The Arab Spring’s First Democratic Elecion.” <http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204346104576637291577418566.html>)

Second, the U.S. should redouble its …would welcome such U.S. assistance.

CP – EU ASSISTANCE

AND US democracy assistance is key

FINKEL, PÉREZ-LIÑÁN, & SELIGSON  07   1.  Daniel Wallace Professor of Political Science at the University of Pittsburgh.  2. associate professor of political science at the University of Pittsburgh. 3. Centennial Professor of Political Science and a fellow of the Center for the Americas at Vanderbilt University

[Finkel, Steven; Pérez-Liñán, Aníbal; Seligson, Mitchell, THE EFFECTS OF U.S. FOREIGN ASSISTANCE ON DEMOCRACY BUILDING, 1990-2003. World Politics59. 3 (Apr 2007): 404-421,423-.]

BASELINE MODELS: FREEDOM HOUSE AND POLITY IV …. violence but weaker than the impact of diffusion and state failure (both with standardized effects of .07).

AND can’t solve Israel- Palestine absent coordination

Perthes 4 [Head of the Middle East and Africa Research Group at Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, the German Institute for International and

Security Affairs, Berlin, “America’s “Greater Middle East” and Europe: Key Issues for Dialogue,” 9-22, http://vps.stanleyfoundation.org/initiatives/gsi/papers/mepc_perthes.pdf]

The Arab-Israeli conflict and …. and the chances of a pluralistic system emerging from within.

DA – TRADEOFF DA 2AC

1. Normal means is unspent money

Sheridan 11 [Mary Beth, “U.S. to give $20 million to help Tunisia’s fledgling democracy,” 3-23, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/us-to-give-20-million-to-help-tunisias-fledgling-democracy/2011/03/22/AB3VpxEB_story.html]

The State Department announced Tuesday …. oversees the program.

2. Cuts inevitable – program won’t survive 

Pincus, 10-1-11 [Walter, Washington Post, “State Dept. reeling from budget cuts,” http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/state-dept-reeling-from-budget-cuts/2011/09/29/gIQAm87ODL_story.html]

The State Department is still reeling from …. be “devastating” to her agency.

3. Even if there is a tradeoff – it’d be from Yemen

WORLD TRIBUNE 9 – 9 - 11

http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2011/af_tunisia1132_09_09.asp

 The Pentagon proposal also called …U.S. aid," the official said.

Democracy solves deforestation

BUITENZORY & MOL  11  

[Meilanie Buitenzorgy · Arthur P. J. Mol, Does Democracy Lead to a Better Environment?  Deforestation and the Democratic Transition Peak, Environ Resource Econ (2011) Volume 48, Number 1, 59-70]

5 Income or Democracy?

Income lost its significance if we put it as … fall between −2 and +2.

Bio-D doesn’t matter

Sagoff ’97  [Mark, Senior Research Scholar – Institute for Philosophy and Public policy in School of Public Affairs – U. Maryland, William and Mary Law Review, “INSTITUTE OF BILL OF RIGHTS LAW SYMPOSIUM DEFINING TAKINGS: PRIVATE PROPERTY AND THE FUTURE OF GOVERNMENT REGULATION: MUDDLE OR MUDDLE THROUGH? TAKINGS JURISPRUDENCE MEETS THE ENDANGERED SPECIES ACT”, 38 Wm and Mary L. Rev. 825, March, L/N]

Although one may agree with … valuable things are quite useless.

DA – CHINA CURRENCY

1. Won’t pass and Obama’s not spending capital.

Palmer & Lawder, 10-25-11

[Doug, David, Reuters, “Republicans ask Obama to lead on China currency,” http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/25/us-usa-china-idUSTRE79O5OY20111025]

(Reuters) - Republican lawmakers … price advantage.

No way Boehner flips – says it would start a trade war

Reuters 10-13 [Analysis: Boehner stands firm against China currency bill, http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/10/12/us-china-usa-yuan-idUKTRE79B07M20111012]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A controversial U.S. bill aimed … to allow a vote to take place.

5. No trade war

Rowley 10-17 [James, China Currency Message Stronger Than Chance of Sanctions, http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-17/china-currency-message-stronger-than-chance-of-sanctions.html]

If the Senate measure ….need not be overt, he said.

5. Democracy aid is bipartisan

Inboden 10 [William, Distinguished Scholar at the Strauss Center for International Security and Law at the University of Texas-Austin and a Non-Resident Fellow with the German Marshall Fund, “Across the aisle and across the Atlantic, a consensus on democracy,” 11-18, http://blog.gmfus.org/2010/11/across-the-aisle-and-across-the-atlantic-a-consensus-on-democracy/]

Meanwhile, notwithstanding the fact …. to human rights and democracy

7. Disaster funding causing backlash to Boehner now

National Review 11-9 [Andrew Stiles, The Disaster-Spending Battle Returns, http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/282631/disaster-spending-battle-returns-andrew-stiles?pg=2]

Last month, a dispute between the House …. change the course of spending in Washington.

8. Winners win

Hunter 10 [Daily Kos Contributing Editor, Political death by a thousand cuts, http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/11/17/921164/-Political-death-by-a-thousand-cuts]

It may be a petty, minor thing, but …. losing pissant little power plays.

9. Controversial riders guarantee fights now

Stein 11-2 [Sam, reporter for the Huffington Post, Policy Riders Return: Health Care, Abortion, Prison And Porn-Related Measures Threaten Funding Bills; http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/11/02/government-funding_n_1070526.html]

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Efforts to fund the government for an extended …. to engage in caucus politics as opposed to what's good for America."

DEMOCRACY K 2AC

Even minimal democratic gains contain liberatory potential.  

Jonas WOLFF Peace Research Inst. Frankfurt ‘8 “Three Tensions of External Democracy Promotion When a Universalist Script Clashes with Diverse Paths”  http://www.wiscnetwork.org/ljubljana2008/papers/WISC_2008-328.pdf p. 16

The specific hegemonic …. has, thus, “something intrinsically revolutionary” (Guilhot 2005: 31).

3. Perm – commitment to specific reforms key

Thomas CAROTHERS VP for Studies @ Carnegie Endowment for Peace ‘2 “The End of the Transition Paradigm” Journal of Democracy 13 (1) p. 17-19

It is hard to let go of the transitional …. of the line between the ruling party and the state.

4. We aren’t an external imposition – Tunisia started their own revolution apart from Western assistance and has invited EU and US assistance into the country

AND refusal of assistance is more imperialist

Richard YOUNGS Director of FRIDE and Associate Professor @ Warwick ’11 “Misunderstanding the maladies of liberal democracy promotion” http://www.fride.org/download/WP106_Liberal_Democracy2_jan11.pdf p. 5-7

Third, central to critical perspectives is the contention … are not to be captured by incumbent autocratic regimes.

Epistemology doesn’t come first or shape reality

Wight ‘7 (Colin, Senior Lecturer in the Department of Politics at the University of Sheffield, “Inside the epistemological cave all bets are off” Journal of International Relations and Development (2007) http://www.ciaonet.org/olj/jird/jird_200703_v10n1_d.pdf)

In some respects, this might seem …. … of our descriptions of them.19

//


////


//

Topicality – It’s/For

2. C/I – the USfg has to provide assistance to organizations on the ground within the target country in order to foster democracy

a. Its refers to the decision to support democracy – the design and implementation can be by others

Huber 8

[Daniela, Hebrew University of Jerusalem Department of International Relations, “Democracy Assistance in the Middle East and North Africa: A Comparison of US and EU Policies,” Mediterranean Politics, Vol. 13, No. 1, 43–62, March, p. 45-6, Informaworld]

Method looks at the way DA … country, or an international partner.

b. for means on the ground

Lappin, 2010

[Richard, PhD candidate, Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven in Belgium, has participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE, Carter Center, visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade under the JoinEU-SEE program, “What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation,” http://www.cejiss.org/sites/default/files/8.pdf]

Democracy assistance can …, media groups and political parties.

c. They moot the topic literature – that’s Huber. All democracy is given through intermediaries – their definition of generic words ignores the way that democracy assistance actually works

Mitchell & Phillips 8 [Lincoln A., associate research scholar at Columbia University's Harriman Institute, David L., director of the Program on Conflict Prevention and Peacebuilding at. American University, THE NATIONAL COMMITTEE ON AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY, Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies – Colombia University, The Atlantic Institute of the United States, “ENHANCING DEMOCRACY ASSISTANCE,” January,http://www.acus.org/files/publication_pdfs/65/Enhancing%20Democracy%20Assistance.pdf]

USAID‘s DG efforts include .. for their activities.

EU Case Advantage – AT: Wake BC

Libya and most recent statements disprove

PSE 11 [“Obama is right on EU-US partnership,” Public Service Europe, 5-20, ]

The European Union will do all .. negotiations as the best way forward.

Democracy Case Advantage – AT: Wake BC

AND it’s the only way to check Iran

Khalaji 11 [Mehdi, senior fellow at the Washington Institute, “Mideast Democracy Threatens Iran,” 4-14, ]

Like all populist autocratic regimes, Iranian .. is no longer threatening only at home, but also abroad.

CP – Tax Credits

3. Doesn’t solve democracy – not a sustainable model for future assistance

CICAM 9 [Centre for International Conflict Analysis and Management, “‘Worlds Apart’ The Development of a Serbian Civil Society in Post-conflict Kosov,” 7-24, ]

Secondly – and this aspect was briefly highlighted above – … which is inherently a long term process.

That means it fails – only gov action solves

Wahab 11 - Doctoral student @ George Mason University's School of Public Policy [Bilal Wahab, “State-Building After the Arab Spring Starts with USAID,” PolicyMic: Next Generation News and Politics, June 1, 2011, pg. http://www.policymic.com/article/show?id=543]

Many Middle Easterners are … memory, and patience with results.

5. Links to politics

Mankiw, ‘7 [Greg, professor of economics at Harvard University, “An Alternative to Foreign Aid,” 10-20, http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2007/10/alternative-to-foreign-aid.html]

Justin Muzinich and Eric Werker (…third-world sweatshops tax credit."

DA – Politics (Payroll)

1. Plan doesn’t get drawn into budget debates – its reallocated funds

Sheridan 11 [Mary Beth, “U.S. to give $20 million to help Tunisia’s fledgling democracy,” 3-23, ]

The State Department announced …, deputy assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, who oversees the program.

3. Obama’s actions thump

La Times 1-21 [Reposted on:  http://www.fox26medford.com/news/la-pn-obama-boehner-remarks-20120121,0,2223624.story]

President Obama used his weekly … pursuits that have divided them.

4. Tax holiday doesn’t help the economy

Froomkim 10-13 [Dan Froomkin is senior Washington correspondent for The Huffington Post, Repatriation Tax Holiday Push Shows Congress Turning Deaf Ear To Occupy Wall Street, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/13/repatriation-tax-holiday-corporate-power-occupy-wall-street_n_1000900.html]

But Congress tried almost exactly … line the pockets of the super-rich.

5. No tax cut – parties divided on how to pay for it

NYT 1-17 [JONATHAN WEISMAN, Parties Confident of Extending Payroll Tax Cut, ]

House Republican aides say they are …between House and Senate bills.

6. Democracy aid is bipartisan

Inboden 10 [William, Distinguished Scholar at the Strauss Center for International Security and Law at the University of Texas-Austin and a Non-Resident Fellow with the German Marshall Fund, “,” 11-18, ]

Meanwhile, notwithstanding …to human rights and democracy

8. Winners win

Parnes 1-16 [Amy, writer for The Hill, President Obama’s new two-step, http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/204377-obamas-new-two-step]

Call it the Obama two-step. President … to lose, Democratic strategists say.

9. No legislation – done internally

Arieff 6-27 [Alexis, Congressional Research Service analyst in African Affairs, Political Transition in Tunisia, ]

• In early June, … transition totals $10 million. 109

11. Capital not relevant

Dickinson 9 [Matthew, Professor of Political Science at Middlebury College, Previously Taught at Harvard University under the supervision of Presidential Scholar Richard Neustadt, Presidential Power: A NonPartisan Analysis of Presidential Politics, May 26^th,http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/05/26/sotamayor-obama-and-presidential-power/]

As for Sotomayor, from here the …  What kind of an education did you pay for?  I’m shocked…SHOCKED!

12. No risk of a double dip – PTC not key

NYT 01/06/2012 [“U.S. Economy Gains Steam as 200,000 Jobs Are Added” ]

The United States added 200,000 …for no reason,” she said.

13. Keystone thumps the DA

THE HILL  1 – 13 – 12 

GOP hopes to seize momentum by attacking Obama on Keystone,

House GOP leaders hope … seen taking action to create jobs while the White House fails to do so.”

US-EU partnership solves

]

The past decade has witnessed …be a partnership of equals.

Economic collapse doesn’t cause war

D. Scott Bennett and Timothy Nordstrom, February 2k. Department of Political Science Professors at Pennsylvania State. “Foreign Policy Substitutability and Internal Economic Problems in Enduring Rivalries,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Ebsco.

In this analysis, we focus on … research design that can account for substitutability between them.

Climate DA

Just spent 40 million

AFP  12 – 29 – 11 

 US Congress frees up $40 million for Palestinians, http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gQFzoveY7OO-gMDg9RW19FoTEcIg?docId=CNG.008f37e075e8246666ba7f1fd81b17b7.8f1

WASHINGTON — The US State … additional funding for these programs, because we think they're important," Nuland said.

Budget set – and had democracy assistance to North Africa now

Rubin 12-27 [Jennifer, “U.S. foreign aid done right,” ]

A case in point is the recently passed … are not presently equipped to handle.

B. Not human caused

SINGER  et al 08  President of the Science and Environmental Policy Project and Distinguished Research Professor @ George Mason, Prof. Emeritus Environmental Science @ UVA and First Director of the National Weather Satellite Service

(S. Fred, “Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate”, Summary for Policymakers of the Report of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, http://www.heartland.org/pdf/22835.pdf)

Figure 23 compares changes in human CO2 … emission of CO2.

Orientialism K 2ac

2. Epistemology doesn’t come first or shape reality

Wight ‘7 (Colin, Senior Lecturer in the Department of Politics at the University of Sheffield, “Inside the epistemological cave all bets are off” Journal of International Relations and Development (2007) http://www.ciaonet.org/olj/jird/jird_200703_v10n1_d.pdf)

In some respects, this might seem to … of our descriptions of them.19

3. Perm – do the plan and non mutually exclusive parts of the alternative. Tunisia provides the best starting point for preventing security concerns from overtaking true efforts at democracy

Khatib 11 [Lina, Program Manager at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law at Stanford University, Research Associate at SOAS, University of London and a Research Fellow at the USC Center on Public Diplomacy at the Annenberg School, founding co-editor of the Middle East Journal of Culture and Communication, former editor of the Journal of Media Practice, “Tunisia: the house of cards,” 1-17, ]

The United States is continuously criticized … of seemingly impenetrable regimes.

4. We aren’t an external imposition – Tunisia started their own revolution apart from Western assistance and has invited election monitors into their country – that’s Allen

AND refusal of assistance is more imperialist

Richard YOUNGS Director of FRIDE and Associate Professor @ Warwick ’11 “Misunderstanding the maladies of liberal democracy promotion” http://www.fride.org/download/WP106_Liberal_Democracy2_jan11.pdf p. 5-7

Third, central to critical … be captured by incumbent autocratic regimes.

6. Analyzing Iranian strategic perceptions is crucial to effective policy strategy.  Without better security policy – genocide is inevitable.

Colin GRAY Int’l Politics @ Reading ‘3 “In Praise of Strategy” Review of International Studies 29 p.293-295

The assumption that there is a culture-independent … Shaw should be writing in praise of American strategy.

this moral tunnel vision is complicit with the evil they criticize

Issac, professor of political science at Indiana University, 2002  (Jeffrey, Dissent, Spring, ebsco)

As writers such as Niccolo …. And it undermines political effectiveness.

1AR---PC Not Key

Factors outside of presidential control matter most.

Beckman 11 [Matthew A., Assistant Professor of Political Science at UC Irvine, Practicing presidential leadership: A model of Presidents’ positive power in U.S. lawmaking, Journal of Theoretical Politics, 23:3-20]

For political scientists, however, … much to improve his success. (1990, 13).

Internal congressional deals are all that matters.

Andres 10 [Gary, Columnist @ The Weekly Standard, *Article is quoting George C. Edwards III who is a Political Science Professor @ Texas A&M, Obama and Legislative Power, ]

But as Texas A&M professor … help Democrats maintain their majority in Congress.

Robust models prove members of Congress are only ideological

Poole 7 [Keith T. Poole, Department of Political Science, University of California, San Diego, Changing Minds? Not in Congress!, Public Choice 131:435–451]

The purpose of this paper is to …. American politics since the end of World War II.

Here’s specific evidence.  The GOP wouldn’t backlash over Payroll

USA TODAY  1 – 16 – 12 

GOP maps new strategy in wake of payroll tax debacle,

 When last seen in Washington, House … taxes in an election year.

If capital matters – it’ll be for Keystone – that’s where they want to fight

THE HILL  1 – 13 – 12 

GOP hopes to seize momentum by attacking Obama on Keystone,

House GOP leaders hope to reclaim … approval or at least a near-term decision.

Boehner wants it to go away

Reuters 1-13 [Eric Walsh, John Boehner May Rebuff Tea Party In Upcoming Payroll Tax Cut Fight, ]

WASHINGTON--House Speaker John ,,,here is bipartisan opposition to tax hikes."

1AR---Executive Action

Lots of executive actions now – more coming

Bloomberg 1-21 [http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-21/obama-says-action-to-boost-tourism-part-of-broader-strategy.html]

President said he is working to foster … mortgages more easily.

1AR---Winners Win

The plan gives Obama PC to spend elsewhere.

Lane 11 [Charles, Staff Writer @ the Washington Post, Obama can reap political capital from revolt in Egypt, February 15h, http://www.thenewstribune.com/2011/02/15/1545321/obama-can-reap-political-capital.html]

If Obama reaches out effectively … time and energy in Egypt over the rest of his term.

This is true of Obama’s foreign policy agenda.

Marshall 11 [Bryan W. and Brandon C. Prins, Miami University and University of Tennessee & Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy, Power or Posturing? Policy Availability and Congressional Influence on U.S. Presidential Decisions to Use Force, Sept, Presidential Studies Quarterly 41, no. 3]

We argue that the more … toward managing political capital at home (Fordham 2002).

Winners win is uniquely true for Obama.

Green 10 [David Michael, Professor of political science at Hofstra University, The Do-Nothing 44th President, June 12^th, http://www.opednews.com/articles/The-Do-Nothing-44th-Presid-by-David-Michael-Gree-100611-648.html]

Yet, on the other hand, … this essay are paradigmatic.

1AR—AT: Finite

That PC is finite proves winners win.

Singer 9 [Jonathan, JD – University of California, Berkeley, Editor at MyDD, By Expending Capital, Obama Grows His Capital, MyDD, March 3^rd,  http://www.mydd.com/story/2009/3/3/191825/0428]

Peter Hart gets at a key point. … to energy reform to ending the war in Iraq.

1AR—Winners Win

The link turn outweighs the link.

Gergen 2k [David, American political consultant and former presidential advisor who served during the administrations of Nixon, Ford, Reagan, and Clinton, Director of the Center for Public Leadership and a professor of public service at Harvard Kennedy School, Editor-at-large for U.S. News and World Report, Senior Political Analyst for CNN, Eyewitness to Power, p. 285]

As Richard Neustadt has pointed … as president. Sadly, he couldn't hold.

Prefer the link turn – PC will atrophy if its not spent.

Mitchell 9 [Lincon, Assistant Professor of International Law @ Columbia University, July 18^th, Time for Obama to Start Spending Political Capital, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lincoln-mitchell/time-for-obama-to-start-s_b_217235.html]

Political capital is not, however, … very likely most important, test.

***1AC

Adv 1

Advantage 1 – Democratic Transitions

The Middle East Transition Office will coordinate and sustain US support for Tunisia – funding key

Trattner 11 - A former career Foreign Service officer and press spokesman of the Department of State [John H. Trattner, “Assisting Transition in the Middle East: What Role for PD?,” Public Diplomacy Council, Tuesday, September 20th 2011, pg. ]

OMET’s coordination is the only way to solve – a fragmented bureaucracy means that our current programs will work at cross-purposes

Kupcu & Cohen 09 – Former Research Fellow in American Strategy Program @ New America Foundation Senior Research Fellow @ New America Foundation [Maria Figueroa Kupcu (Held positions at the Council on Foreign Relations and at the United Nations as a poverty and development analyst) & Michael A. Cohen “Revitalizing U.S. Democracy Promotion: A Comprehensive Plan for Reform, New America Foundation, April 2009, Pg. ]

US efforts in Tunisia sets a model for the rest of the region

Allen 11 [Michael, Editor of Democracy Digest, “Tunisia: home-grown revolution needs foreign support,” 1-27, ]

Mideast will either transition to democracies or give rise to destabilizing autocracies.  Backsliding makes every problem in the region worse

Posner & Wittes 11 – Assistant Secretary @ Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor & Deputy Assistant Secretary @ Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs [Michael H. Posner & Tamara C. Wittes, “Shifting Sands: Political Transitions in the Middle East, Part 2,” Testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Committee Middle East and South Asia Subcommittee, May 5, 2011, Pg. ]

Specifically DA reduces the likelihood of conflict

SAVUN & TIRONE  11   1. Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Pittsburgh  2. Ph.D. Candidate in the Department of Political Science, University of Pittsburgh

[Burcu Savun & Daniel C. Tirone,, Foreign Aid, Democratization, and Civil Conflict: How Does Democracy Aid Affect Civil Conflict?, American Journal of Political Science, Volume 55, Issue 2, pages 233–246, April 2011]

 Middle East conflict triggers nuclear warfare—end of the Cold War increased the risk of escalation

Primakov 9—President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation; Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences; member of the Editorial Board of Russia in Global Affairs., article is based on the scientific report for which the author was awarded the Lomonosov Gold Medal of the Russian Academy of Sciences in 2008 (Yevgeny, The Fundamental Problem, “The Middle East Problem in the Context of International Relations”, Russia in Global Affiars, Vol. 7, Number 3, July-September 2009, http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/105702/ichaptersection_singledocument/71a40dca-23cb-411d-9c5d-a7ce495e2522/en/12.pdf.]

Transitional instability places Northeast Asia’s energy supply is at risk 

Stangarone & Scarlatoiu 11 - Director of Congressional Affairs @ Korea Economic Institute &  Director of Public Affairs and Business Issues @ Korea Economic Institute [Troy Stangarone & Greg Scarlatoiu, “After the Arab Spring: A Role for Northeast Asia?,” Global Asia, Volume 6 Number 2 Summer, June, 2011, pg. http://www.globalasia.org/V6N2_Summer_2011/Troy_Stangarone&Greg_Scarlatoiu.html]

AND, they will expand their military arsenals to protect those assets

Dadush & Dunne 11 - Director of the International Economics Program @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace & Director of the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East @ Atlantic Council. [Uri Dadush & Michele Dunne, “American and European Responses to the Arab Spring: What’s the Big Idea?,” The Washington Quarterly • 34:4 Fall 2011, pp. 131145]

That causes Asian proliferation

National Interest 09 [Aaron L. Friedberg is a professor of politics and international affairs at the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton University; Robert S. Ross is a professor of political science at Boston College, an associate of the John King Fairbank Center for East Asian Research at Harvard University and a fellow of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology; 9/09, "Here Be Dragons", lexis]

Extinction

Cimbala 08 [Stephen, Distinguished Prof. Pol. Sci. – Penn. State Brandywine, Comparative Strategy, “Anticipatory Attacks: Nuclear Crisis Stability in Future Asia”, 27, InformaWorld]

Spreading democracy checks wars & minimizes the impact – 3 reasons [1. democratic people don’t fight each other, 2. fight shorter wars, 3. Democracies fight less bloody wars]

RUMMEL  09  Professor Emeritus of Political Science  at the University of Hawaii

[Rudy (R.J.) Rummel, Democracy, Democratic peace, freedom, globalization, This entry was posted on Sunday, January 18th, 2009 at 4:02 pm, ]

Adv 2

Advantage Two - Credibility

Tunisia is where the world is looking – it is THE test case. 

Nasser 1/27/11 - veteran Arab journalist based in Birzeit in the Israeli-occupied Palestinian territories [Nicola Nasser, “Washington has a choice in Tunisia,” Al Ahram Weekly Online, 27 January - 2 February 2011

Issue No. 1033, pg. ]

A sustained and institutionalized policy is vital to boosting credibility – current ad hoc efforts fail.

Democracy Digest 1/13/12 [“Obama’s reclaimed, revitalized democracy policy,” January 13, 2012, pg. http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2012/01/obamas-reclaimed-revitalized-democracy-policy/]

Funding is key – Everyone is looking to see if Obama’s enunciated policy will be politically and financially supported – failure emboldens autocratic adversaries

Craner 10 – President of the International Republican Institute [Lorne W. Craner, “Human Rights and Democracy Assistance:  Increasing the Effectiveness of US Foreign Aid,” TESTIMONY OF THE HONORABLE LORNE W. CRANER PRESIDENT THE INTERNATIONAL REPUBLICAN INSTITUTE HOUSE COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN AFFAIRS , JUNE 10, 2010, Pg. foreignaffairs.house.gov/111/cra061010.pdf]

Insufficient resources prevent democratic solidarity and cooperation – Authoritarian consolidation is the alternative

Gershman 11/11/11 – President of the National Endowment for Democracy “New Strategies for Democracy Promotion,” Remarks at the Conference, “The Future of Democracy: How to Promote It, How to Strengthen It, How to Defend It”, Meeting of the Alliance of Democrats in the Italian Chamber of Deputies, Rome, November 11, 2011, pg. ]

Chavez influence causes a Russian-Venezuelan alliance 

Walser 10 [Ray, Senior Policy Analyst for Latin America in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation, “State Sponsors of Terrorism: Time to Add Venezuela to the List”, 1-20, http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2010/01/State-Sponsors-of-Terrorism-Time-to-Add-Venezuela-to-the-List]

Russian influence causes a regional arms race

Blank 09 [Stephen, Ph.D., is Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the U.S. Army War College; Russia in Latin America: Geopolitical Games in the US's Neighborhood]

It goes nuclear – geopolitical fault-lines lead to shooting wars

Sanchez 11 [Alex, Research Fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, Master’s degree in International Peace and Conflict Resolution from the School of International Service at American University and has attended the Institute of World Politics, Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies, The Unlikely Success: Latin America and Nuclear Weapons, 11-15-11, http://wasanchez.blogspot.com/2011/11/unlikely-success-latin-america-and.html]

AND, Shying away from democracy support makes US hegemony unsustainable

Fettner 11 – Independent Researcher [P. Winston Fettner, Soft Power in MENA: Reforming American Foreign Policy, 2011, pg. ]

Numerous nuclear wars

Kagan 07 – Senior associate @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace [Robert Kagan (Senior transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund), “End of Dreams, Return of History,” Policy Review, August & September 2007, pg. http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/8552512.html]

TEXT --- The United States federal government should support the Middle East Transition Office’s strategies for democratic governance for Tunisia.

We reinvigorate the US’ support for democracy – It gives hopes to opposition groups and de-motivates autocrats  

POMED 2/10/11 [Project on Middle East Democracy, “After the Uprisings: U.S. Policy in a Changing Middle East‖ Thursday, February 10, 1:00pm – 2:30pm, pg. ]

Support of Tunisia’s transition solves - We must play a real and visible role to sustain Congressional and public support for democracy

Mitchell 9/30/11 – Professor of International Politics @ Columbia University [Lincoln A. Mitchell, “The Arab Spring and the Future of Democracy Assistance,” Faster Times, September 30, 2011, pg. http://www.thefastertimes.com/foreignpolicy/2011/09/30/the-arab-spring-and-the-future-of-democracy-assistance/]

Democracy assistance works – dollars mean democracy, it works long term, regional variables are irrelevant, and when its targeted its best.  This study rocks.

FINKEL, PÉREZ-LIÑÁN, & SELIGSON  07   1.  Daniel Wallace Professor of Political Science at the University of Pittsburgh.  2. associate professor of political science at the University of Pittsburgh. 3. Centennial Professor of Political Science and a fellow of the Center for the Americas at Vanderbilt University

[Finkel, Steven; Pérez-Liñán, Aníbal; Seligson, Mitchell, THE EFFECTS OF U.S. FOREIGN ASSISTANCE ON DEMOCRACY BUILDING, 1990-2003. World Politics59. 3 (Apr 2007): 404-421,423-.]

Tunisia will make or break for democracy throughout the region – US must focus its attention here

Masmoudi 5/18/11 - President of the Center for the Study of Islam & Democracy [Radwan Masmoudi, “Tunisia should be the priority,” Democracy Digest, May 18, 2011, pg. ]

//


////


//1. Framework – the debate should be about whether the federal government should enact a topical proposal. The neg gets an competitive policy option or the status quo –

a) Predictability --- its derived from the wording of the resolution. Alternative frameworks are infinite, lack clear criteria for decision, and are biased toward the Neg by allowing them to pick any one representation in t he 1AC to criticize for 9 minutes. Fairness outweighs --- it’s critical for our ability to engage their arguments in the first place.

b) Education – a policy debate focus preserves a common basis for debate to begin for both sides.  All debate is educational but having a common starting point creates superior focus and depth.  Our framework forces debates on both sides of a social issue which stimulates critical thinking and helps students understand the complexities of policy dilemmas – this is critical to check dogmatism – that’s keller

c) Real world value – even if the plan is never enacted – forcing students to assert policy solutions has tremendous research and education benefits and encourages them to become advocates for change rather than mere spectators

Joyner , 99 – Professor of International Law in the Government Department at Georgetown University

(Christopher C., Spring, 199, 5 ILSA J Int'l & Comp L 377)

Use of ,…, and legal defense.

AND focusing on the details and inner-workings of government policy-making is productive – critical approaches can’t resolve real world problems like poverty, racism and war

McClean, 01 – Adjunct Professor of Philosophy, Molloy College, New York

(David E., “The Cultural Left and the Limits of Social Hope,” Presented at the 2001 Annual Conference of the Society for the Advancement of American Philosophy, www.american-philosophy.org/archives/past_conference_programs/pc2001/Discussion%20papers/david_mcclean.htm, JMP)

Yet for some reason, … "managerial class."

Regardless of the framework debate – their narrative doesn’t address the structural problems of Kansas city – means there will still be problems even if you vote neg.

Their framework begs the question of what a community is. We meet their framework

2. Permutation – do the plan AND ____ (recognize the debate space as a democratic classroom)

Local resistance must be combined with larger struggles to effectively resist.

Gills – 02 [Barry K, Chair of the World Historical Systems theory group of the International Studies Association and a faculty affiliate of the Globalization Research Center of the University of Hawaii, “Democratizing Globalization and Globalizing Democracy, May, Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, May]
In this sense, we …. such a form of governance.

3. Case outweighs –

A. Warming – its real, anthropogenic and getting worse – continuation will melt the ice caps, increase the sea level and cause human extinction – only EU-US action can solve. Best studies and metholodogies support our conclusions – that’s Lempert, Braganza, Sify and Anderegg

Not discussing white privilege doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t work to solve warming – if their Wise ev is correct that warming disporportionary affects people of color – it’s a reason you should take action

B. Leadership – a coordinated Tunisia policy is the only way to boost American credibility and protect our ability to influence the world. Conflicts will escalate absent a strong reliable US. Hegemony is the number one reason that violence across the world is declining – that’s Owens

C. Democracy – it’s an universal human aspiration – world values survey proves. AND democracy contains emancipatory potential – that’s Inglehart and Rummel 

We shouldn’t leave these problems up to personal change

4. Their strategy LIMITS politics to ONLY the personal.  This devastates structural change, and increases all oppression – it demands that political performance assimilate to very limited norms of experience. 

Joan SCOTT Harold F. Linder Professor at the School of Social Science in the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton ’92 “Multiculturalism and the Politics of Identity” October Summer p. 16-19

The logic of …as majority or dominant.

5. Floating PIKs are a voting issue –

a. Aff ground – allowing the neg to choose one word, idea or justification moots the entire 1ac – makes it impossible to be aff.

b. Infinitely regressive – they can choose any part of the aff – makes it unpredictable

6. The plan is what Tunisian’s have requested – they have demanded and independent juwsj and ghazi

7. refusal of assistance is more imperialist

Richard YOUNGS Director of FRIDE and Associate Professor @ Warwick ’11 “Misunderstanding the maladies of liberal democracy promotion” http://www.fride.org/download/WP106_Liberal_Democracy2_jan11.pdf p. 5-7

Third, central …. incumbent autocratic regimes.

8. Turn—a decision to act locally while ignoring global action exports the problem to others—only a commitment to global action can transform the system

Inayatullah, professor of political science at Queensland University, 1995  (Sohail, “Global Transformations”, http://www.metafuture.org/Articles/globaltransformations.htm)

The good news …have been about.

9. Alternative cedes the political to neoconservative foreign policy of coercive leadership.  Democracy offers an alternative to imperialism.

Richard YOUNGS Director of FRIDE and Associate Professor @ Warwick ’11 “Misunderstanding the maladies of liberal democracy promotion” http://www.fride.org/download/WP106_Liberal_Democracy2_jan11.pdf p. 12-13

Current international …. new approaches.21

10. You don’t change anything – there is no spillover between your intellectual position and the way the policy world works.  Intellectual endorsement of counter-values doesn’t create political change

John G GUNNELL Political Science @ SUNY Albany ’98 Politeia “Speaking politically: politics and the academic intellectual in the United States” (Winter 1998) http://www.unisa.ac.za/default.asp?Cmd=ViewContent&ContentID=11579&P_XSLFile=unisa/accessibility.xsl

Although political ….

of unrequited hope.

11. Policy proposals are the only way to effect democratic change

Sikkink 8 Kathryn, Professor of Political Science at the University of Minnesota. “The Role of Consequences, Comparison, and Counterfactuals in Constructivist Ethical Thought” 2008 http://www.polisci.umn.edu/centers/theory/pdf/sikkink.pdf

Ethical arguments of … difficult to act.

12. Using debate as a site of activism to encourage social change fails

Atchison and Panetta, 09 – *Director of Debate at Trinity University and **Director of Debate at the University of Georgia

(Jarrod, and Edward, “Intercollegiate Debate and Speech Communication: Issues for the Future,” The Sage Handbook of Rhetorical Studies, Lunsford, Andrea, ed., 2009, p. 317-334)

Debates as Sites of Community Change

The and coalition building.

13. We should have narratives of global engagement. Progressive limitations on harm and emotional attachment to others are necessary to avoid environmental destruction and genocide.

Andrew LINKLATER Woodrow Wilson Professor of International Relations @ Aberystwyth ’11 in Realism and World Politics Ed. Ken Booth p. 315-318

Kant constructed an image of the complexities of long-term human development which has affinities with recent narratives that argue for radical extensions of the scope of emotional identification in the light of the capacity to cause more destructive forms of harm over greater distances.47 An interesting, but largely overlooked, characteristic of contemporary world …. between social groups.

14. Individual debates can't generate community change

Atchison and Panetta, 09 – *Director of Debate at Trinity University and **Director of Debate at the University of Georgia

(Jarrod, and Edward, “Intercollegiate Debate and Speech Communication: Issues for the Future,” The Sage Handbook of Rhetorical Studies, Lunsford, Andrea, ed., 2009, p. 317-334)

The first problem ….addressing important problems.

Have a high level of scrutiny for their methodology claims – We need specific solutions – they make us academically irrelevant

Walt ‘91 (Stephen, Professor at the University of Chicago, International Studies Quarterly 35)

Yet the opposite tendency ….rom the real world.

CONTINUES...

Because scientific disciplines advance through competition, we should not try to impose a single methodological monolith upon the field.  To insist that a single method constitutes the only proper approach is like saying that a hammer is the only proper tool for building a house.  The above strictures are no more than a warning, therefore; progress will be best served by increased dialogue between different methodological approaches (Downs, 1989).

Ethics boil down to saving the most lives

Bernstein ‘2 (Richard J., Vera List Prof. Phil. – New School for Social Research, “Radical Evil: A Philosophical Interrogation”, p. 188-192)

Jonas goes "…. of Man among the objects of your will." (IR 11)

Structural violence is an obscure metaphor. Its use cannot lead to positive changes because it conflates distinct and generally unrelated problems of violence and poverty.

Boulding ’77  (Kenneth, Faculty – U. Colorado Boulder, Former Pres. American Economic Association, Society for General Systems Research, and American Association for the Advancement of Science, Journal of Peace Research, “Twelve Friendly Quarrels with Johan Galtung”, 14:1, JSTOR)

Finally, we … the answer.

Plan helps structural violence – democracy and hegemony decrease violence – for all types of conflicts – that’s Owens and Rummel

//


////


//Plan: The United States federal government should support judicial independence measures for Tunisia in accordance with the European Union’s Neighbourhood Action Plan.

Contention 1 – Partnership

The US-EU partnership is not strategic – makes cooperation useless.

Hamilton and Burwell 10 [Daniel S, Executive Director of the Center for Transatlantic Relations; Executive Director of the American Consortium on EU Studies; Austrian Marshall Plan Foundation Research Professor at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins, and Frances, Vice President, Director of the Program on Transatlantic Relations at the Atlantic Council, former executive director of the Center for International and Security Studies at the University of Maryland, "The Setting: The United States and Europe in a G20 World," Chapter 1,http://transatlantic.sais-jhu.edu/bin/k/u/shoulder-to-shoulder-book-finaltext.pdf]

The United States is the most important partner for the European Union. The EU, in turn, is the most important organization in the world to which the United States does not belong. In terms of values and interests, economic interactions and human bonds, the EU and the U.S. are closer to one another than either is ….t was painful.

The plan provides a foundation for future cooperation through improved coordination.

Wittes and Youngs 9 [Tamara, deputy assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs at the U.S. Department of State, research fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institute, and Richard, director general of FRIDE, assistant professor at the University of Warwick, “Europe, the United States, and Middle Eastern Democracy: Repairing the Breach,” January, The Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, no 18, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2009/01_middle_eastern_democracy_wittes/01_middle_eastern_democracy_wittes.pdf]

Tensions between the United States … can, cautiously, be rebuilt.

 Joint action restores the alliance, which creates momentum for future policies.

Castello-Catchot 11 [Carles Castello-Catchot, assistant director of the Atlantic Council’s Strategic Foresight Project, “A Transatlantic Weakness to Avoid”, New Atlanticist Policy and Analysis Blog at Atlantic Council, 9-19-2011, http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/transatlantic-weakness-avoid]

The transatlantic … 9/11, the future is still ours to shape, and win.

A more strategic alliance solves all problems – US key

Stivachtis 10 – Director of International Studies Program @ Virginia Polytechnic Institute  [Dr. Yannis. A. Stivachtis (Professor of Poli Sci @ Virginia Polytechnic Institute & Ph.D. in Politics & International Relations from Lancaster University), THE IMPERATIVE FOR TRANSATLANTIC COOPERATION,” The Research Institute for European and American Studies, 2010, pg. http://www.rieas.gr/research-areas/global-issues/transatlantic-studies/78.html]

There is no doubt that US-…re that vision.

And coordination of aid to the Middle East spills over to cooperation on other foreign assistance

MFAN 11 [“MFAN Principal Releases Report on Renewed U.S.-EU Development Dialgoue,” 6-30,http://www.modernizeaid.net/2011/06/]

In the … foreign assistance programs.

That results in stabilization of the Balkans

Larrabee 11 [F.Stephen, Distinguished Chair in European Security at the RAND Corporation, former vice president and director of studies of the Institute of East-West Security Studies in New York, e served on the U.S. National Security Council staff in the White House as a specialist on Soviet-East European affairs and East-West political-military relations, “1. Unfinished business in Europe,”http://www.iss.europa.eu/uploads/media/Transatlantic2011.pdf]

The Western … stability there.

Russia will get involved and use nuclear weapons

Daily Mail 11 [“War drums: Russian general warns border conflicts could lead to ‘nuclear war’,” 11-17, http://theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com/2011/11/17/russian-general-warns-border-conflicts-could-lead-to-nuclear-war/]

A chilling warning of nuclear …. center based in Estonia. 

Nuclear war

Scherbak 08 – Advisor to the Chair of the Parliament of Ukraine [Yuri Scherbak (President of the Institute for Sustainable Development of Ukraine), Ten Theses about the Russian-Georgian Conflict: A View from Ukraine, Heinrich Boll Stiftung – Warsaw, Nov 2008, pg.http://www.boell.pl/downloads/Georgia_war_from_UA_perspective_by_Y.Scherbak.pdf]

2. The war in Caucasus …. neighbors can lead to a new global conflict.  Pg. 2-3

Contention 2 – Democracy

Failure to synergize US and EU approaches means neither is very effective – supporting EU programs is key.

Youngs 4 [Richard, Director of FRIDE, “Transatlantic Cooperation on Middle East Reform: A European Misjudgement?,” October,http://cddrl.stanford.edu/publications/transatlantic_cooperation_on_middle_east_reform_a_european_misjudgement/]

Europeans risk …. change in the Middle East. 

The EU has set up a template of democratic outreach for Tunisia – but more needs to be done

Koetsenruijter 11 [Adrianus, Chief of the EU delegation to Tunisia, “TUNISIA AND THE EU: WHAT NOW?,” http://www.sentinelle-tunisie.com/politique/item/tunisia-and-the-eu-what-now]

The revolution and democratisation …countries can produce at your border.

Coordinated assistance in Tunisia is modeled.

Allen 11 [Michael, Editor of Democracy Digest, “Tunisia: home-grown revolution needs foreign support,” 1-27,http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/01/home-grown-revolution-needs-foreign-support-say-tunisians/]

The turbulence has given rise to growing …., do not outmanoeuvre the moderates.”

US influence with emerging Middle East democracies key to contain Iran

Feltman 11 [Jeffrey, Assistant Secretary of States, "House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Middle East and South Asia Hearing;

on "Assessing U.S. Foreign Policy Priorities and Needs Amidst Economic Challenges in the Middle East." 3-10, Lexis]

The Middle East …. our other interests in the region.

Iranian hegemony causes nuclear war

Ben-Meir 07 (Alon Ben-Meir professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU, Realpolitik: Ending Iran’s defiance, 2007, http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Security-Industry/2007/02/06/Realpolitik-Ending-Irans-defiance/UPI-69491170778058/)

Feeling emboldened …. of not halting its nuclear program.

Multiple conditions make nuclear war highly likely

Edelman et al 11 (Eric S., Distinguished Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Andrew Krepinevich, President of the CSBA. Evan Montgomery, Research Fellow at the CSBA. “The Dangers of a Nuclear Iran: The Limits of Containment.” Foreign Affairs, January 1, 2011. http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67162/eric-s-edelman-andrew-f-krepinevich-jr-and-evan-braden-montgomer/the-dangers-of-a-nuclear-iran.)

More important, emerging nuclear … triggering a regional nuclear war.

Iranian nuclearization would ignite a nuclear war between Iran and Russia

Dinerman 10 [Taylor, Senior Editor at the Hudson Institute, part time consultant to the DOD, “Iran: The Geostrategic Case for Regime Change,” 8-12, http://www.hudson-ny.org/1472/iran-regime-change]

Iran's drive for nuclear weapons, … menace all of its neighbors.

Failure to reform the judiciary causes backsliding – prevents democracy and risks instability

PACIELLO 11  Research associate at Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) in Rome and lecturer in Economic and Political Geography of Development at La Sapienza University of Rome

Maria Cristina Paciello, Tunisia:  Changes and Challenges of Political Transition, MEDPRO Technical Report No. 3/May 2011

4. Possible scenarios for the future As …. intentions are not yet clear.

Backsliding creates perfect conditions for Al-Qaeda’s resurgence within the region

Hague 11 [William, “Helping the Arab Spring succeed is Britain's cause too,” 8-8, http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23976502-helping-the-arab-spring-succeed-is-britains-cause-too.do]

There will be no long-term… have the option of inaction.

Regardless of democracy – independent judiciaries prevent terrorism

FINDLEY & YOUNG  11  1. Assistant Prof Poli Sci at Brigham Young University 2. Assistant Prof of Public Affairs at American University

Michael G. Findley,  Joseph K. Young, Terrorism, Democracy, and Credible Commitments, International Studies Quarterly, Volume 55, Issue 2, pages 357–378, June 2011

 What explains the variation in …dependent on any one model specification (Rosenbaum and Rubin 1983; Ho, Imai, King, and Stuart 2007).

Reinvigorated Al-Qaeda units in north Africa increases the likelihood of a terrorist attack

LE SAGE  july 11  PhD. Senior research fellow in the Center for  Strategic research, institute for national Strategic Studies, at the national Defense University

[Dr. Andre Le Sage,  The Evolving Threat of al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, Strategic Forum – National Defense University.  July 11,  INSS – Institute for National Strategic Studies]

Future Scenarios African … would become enormously complex.

Al Qaeda will use WMD and attack the US

Kimery 11 [Anthony, Homeland Security Today's senior reporter and online editor, W. Scott Malone, multiple Emmy and Peabody award-winning investigative journalist and former senior editor of NavySEALs.com. He runs the website's counterterrorism newsletter spin-off, “BlackNET Intelligence Channel,” 05/12, “Al Qaeda Could Try to Replicate Fukushima-type Meltdowns,” http://www.hstoday.us/blogs/the-kimery-report/blog/al-qaeda-could-try-to-replicate-fukushima-type-meltdowns/aa96292934d83bb8c9f97fd9d685f32b.html]

"I consider Al Qaeda, now … after the killing of [Bin Laden], remains intense,” Lopez said.

Global nuclear war

Ayson 10,  Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, 2010 (Robert, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)

But these two nuclear worlds—a non-state … with a devastating response.

Easy acquisition and construction---theft, black-market, and rogue states eliminated the historic barriers that their evidence cites

Arbuckle 8 (Larry J. Arbuckle, Lieutenant, United States Navy, June 2008, “THE DETERRENCE OF NUCLEAR TERRORISM THROUGH AN ATTRIBUTION CAPABILITY,” http://edocs.nps.edu/npspubs/scholarly/theses/2008/Jun/08Jun_Arbuckle.pdf)

Of course to use a nuclear weapon in a terrorist attack, …insurmountable task in constructing one (Hecker, 2006, p 121).

Topicality – It’s/For

2. C/I – the USfg has to provide assistance to organizations on the ground within the target country in order to foster democracy

a. Its refers to the decision to support democracy – the design and implementation can be by others

Huber 8

[Daniela, Hebrew University of Jerusalem Department of International Relations, “Democracy Assistance in the Middle East and North Africa: A Comparison of US and EU Policies,” Mediterranean Politics, Vol. 13, No. 1, 43–62, March, p. 45-6, Informaworld]

Method looks at the way DA … country, or an international partner.

b. for means on the ground

Lappin, 2010

[Richard, PhD candidate, Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven in Belgium, has participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE, Carter Center, visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade under the JoinEU-SEE program, “What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation,” http://www.cejiss.org/sites/default/files/8.pdf]

Democracy assistance can …, media groups and political parties.

c. They moot the topic literature – that’s Huber. All democracy is given through intermediaries – their definition of generic words ignores the way that democracy assistance actually works

Mitchell & Phillips 8 [Lincoln A., associate research scholar at Columbia University's Harriman Institute, David L., director of the Program on Conflict Prevention and Peacebuilding at. American University, THE NATIONAL COMMITTEE ON AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY, Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies – Colombia University, The Atlantic Institute of the United States, “ENHANCING DEMOCRACY ASSISTANCE,” January,http://www.acus.org/files/publication_pdfs/65/Enhancing%20Democracy%20Assistance.pdf]

USAID‘s DG efforts include .. for their activities.

EU Case Advantage – AT: Wake BC

Libya and most recent statements disprove

PSE 11 [“Obama is right on EU-US partnership,” Public Service Europe, 5-20, http://www.publicserviceeurope.com/article/376/obama-is-right-on-eu-us-partnership]

The European Union will do all .. negotiations as the best way forward.

Democracy Case Advantage – AT: Wake BC

AND it’s the only way to check Iran

Khalaji 11 [Mehdi, senior fellow at the Washington Institute, “Mideast Democracy Threatens Iran,” 4-14, http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2011/04/14/mideast_democracy_threatens_iran_99479.html]

Like all populist autocratic regimes, Iranian .. is no longer threatening only at home, but also abroad.

CP – Tax Credits

3. Doesn’t solve democracy – not a sustainable model for future assistance

CICAM 9 [Centre for International Conflict Analysis and Management, “‘Worlds Apart’ The Development of a Serbian Civil Society in Post-conflict Kosov,” 7-24, http://geography2.ruhosting.nl/masterthesis/scripties/VanderfeestenFrans.pdf]

Secondly – and this aspect was briefly highlighted above – … which is inherently a long term process.

That means it fails – only gov action solves

Wahab 11 - Doctoral student @ George Mason University's School of Public Policy [Bilal Wahab, “State-Building After the Arab Spring Starts with USAID,” PolicyMic: Next Generation News and Politics, June 1, 2011, pg. http://www.policymic.com/article/show?id=543]

Many Middle Easterners are … memory, and patience with results.

5. Links to politics

Mankiw, ‘7 [Greg, professor of economics at Harvard University, “An Alternative to Foreign Aid,” 10-20, http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2007/10/alternative-to-foreign-aid.html]

Justin Muzinich and Eric Werker (…third-world sweatshops tax credit."

DA – Politics (Payroll)

1. Plan doesn’t get drawn into budget debates – its reallocated funds

Sheridan 11 [Mary Beth, “U.S. to give $20 million to help Tunisia’s fledgling democracy,” 3-23, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/us-to-give-20-million-to-help-tunisias-fledgling-democracy/2011/03/22/AB3VpxEB_story.html]

The State Department announced …, deputy assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, who oversees the program.

3. Obama’s actions thump

La Times 1-21 [Reposted on:  http://www.fox26medford.com/news/la-pn-obama-boehner-remarks-20120121,0,2223624.story]

President Obama used his weekly … pursuits that have divided them.

4. Tax holiday doesn’t help the economy

Froomkim 10-13 [Dan Froomkin is senior Washington correspondent for The Huffington Post, Repatriation Tax Holiday Push Shows Congress Turning Deaf Ear To Occupy Wall Street, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/13/repatriation-tax-holiday-corporate-power-occupy-wall-street_n_1000900.html]

But Congress tried almost exactly … line the pockets of the super-rich.

5. No tax cut – parties divided on how to pay for it

NYT 1-17 [JONATHAN WEISMAN, Parties Confident of Extending Payroll Tax Cut, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/18/us/politics/congress-sees-few-barriers-to-extending-payroll-tax-cut.html]

House Republican aides say they are …between House and Senate bills.

6. Democracy aid is bipartisan

Inboden 10 [William, Distinguished Scholar at the Strauss Center for International Security and Law at the University of Texas-Austin and a Non-Resident Fellow with the German Marshall Fund, “Across the aisle and across the Atlantic, a consensus on democracy,” 11-18, http://blog.gmfus.org/2010/11/across-the-aisle-and-across-the-atlantic-a-consensus-on-democracy/]

Meanwhile, notwithstanding …to human rights and democracy

8. Winners win

Parnes 1-16 [Amy, writer for The Hill, President Obama’s new two-step, http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/204377-obamas-new-two-step]

Call it the Obama two-step. President … to lose, Democratic strategists say.

9. No legislation – done internally

Arieff 6-27 [Alexis, Congressional Research Service analyst in African Affairs, Political Transition in Tunisia, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RS21666.pdf]

• In early June, … transition totals $10 million. 109

11. Capital not relevant

Dickinson 9 [Matthew, Professor of Political Science at Middlebury College, Previously Taught at Harvard University under the supervision of Presidential Scholar Richard Neustadt, Presidential Power: A NonPartisan Analysis of Presidential Politics, May 26^th,http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/05/26/sotamayor-obama-and-presidential-power/]

As for Sotomayor, from here the …  What kind of an education did you pay for?  I’m shocked…SHOCKED!

12. No risk of a double dip – PTC not key

NYT 01/06/2012 [“U.S. Economy Gains Steam as 200,000 Jobs Are Added” http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/07/business/economy/us-adds-200000-jobs-unemployment-rate-at-8-5.html]

The United States added 200,000 …for no reason,” she said.

13. Keystone thumps the DA

THE HILL  1 – 13 – 12 

GOP hopes to seize momentum by attacking Obama on Keystone, http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/203957-gop-hopes-pipeline-is-lifeline-after-payroll-debacle

House GOP leaders hope … seen taking action to create jobs while the White House fails to do so.”

US-EU partnership solves

http://tt.europeanideasnetwork.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=7&Itemid=9]

The past decade has witnessed …be a partnership of equals.

Economic collapse doesn’t cause war

D. Scott Bennett and Timothy Nordstrom, February 2k. Department of Political Science Professors at Pennsylvania State. “Foreign Policy Substitutability and Internal Economic Problems in Enduring Rivalries,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Ebsco.

In this analysis, we focus on … research design that can account for substitutability between them.

Climate DA

Just spent 40 million

AFP  12 – 29 – 11 

 US Congress frees up $40 million for Palestinians, http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gQFzoveY7OO-gMDg9RW19FoTEcIg?docId=CNG.008f37e075e8246666ba7f1fd81b17b7.8f1

WASHINGTON — The US State … additional funding for these programs, because we think they're important," Nuland said.

Budget set – and had democracy assistance to North Africa now

Rubin 12-27 [Jennifer, “U.S. foreign aid done right,” http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/post/us-foreign-aid-done-right/2011/12/27/gIQAIGY2KP_blog.html]

A case in point is the recently passed … are not presently equipped to handle.

B. Not human caused

SINGER  et al 08  President of the Science and Environmental Policy Project and Distinguished Research Professor @ George Mason, Prof. Emeritus Environmental Science @ UVA and First Director of the National Weather Satellite Service

(S. Fred, “Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate”, Summary for Policymakers of the Report of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, http://www.heartland.org/pdf/22835.pdf)

Figure 23 compares changes in human CO2 … emission of CO2.

Orientialism K 2ac

2. Epistemology doesn’t come first or shape reality

Wight ‘7 (Colin, Senior Lecturer in the Department of Politics at the University of Sheffield, “Inside the epistemological cave all bets are off” Journal of International Relations and Development (2007) http://www.ciaonet.org/olj/jird/jird_200703_v10n1_d.pdf)

In some respects, this might seem to … of our descriptions of them.19

3. Perm – do the plan and non mutually exclusive parts of the alternative. Tunisia provides the best starting point for preventing security concerns from overtaking true efforts at democracy

Khatib 11 [Lina, Program Manager at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law at Stanford University, Research Associate at SOAS, University of London and a Research Fellow at the USC Center on Public Diplomacy at the Annenberg School, founding co-editor of the Middle East Journal of Culture and Communication, former editor of the Journal of Media Practice, “Tunisia: the house of cards,” 1-17, http://cddrl.stanford.edu/news/tunisia_the_house_of_cards_20110117/]

The United States is continuously criticized … of seemingly impenetrable regimes.

4. We aren’t an external imposition – Tunisia started their own revolution apart from Western assistance and has invited election monitors into their country – that’s Allen

AND refusal of assistance is more imperialist

Richard YOUNGS Director of FRIDE and Associate Professor @ Warwick ’11 “Misunderstanding the maladies of liberal democracy promotion” http://www.fride.org/download/WP106_Liberal_Democracy2_jan11.pdf p. 5-7

Third, central to critical … be captured by incumbent autocratic regimes.

6. Analyzing Iranian strategic perceptions is crucial to effective policy strategy.  Without better security policy – genocide is inevitable.

Colin GRAY Int’l Politics @ Reading ‘3 “In Praise of Strategy” Review of International Studies 29 p.293-295

The assumption that there is a culture-independent … Shaw should be writing in praise of American strategy.

this moral tunnel vision is complicit with the evil they criticize

Issac, professor of political science at Indiana University, 2002  (Jeffrey, Dissent, Spring, ebsco)

As writers such as Niccolo …. And it undermines political effectiveness.

1AR---PC Not Key

Factors outside of presidential control matter most.

Beckman 11 [Matthew A., Assistant Professor of Political Science at UC Irvine, Practicing presidential leadership: A model of Presidents’ positive power in U.S. lawmaking, Journal of Theoretical Politics, 23:3-20]

For political scientists, however, … much to improve his success. (1990, 13).

Internal congressional deals are all that matters.

Andres 10 [Gary, Columnist @ The Weekly Standard, *Article is quoting George C. Edwards III who is a Political Science Professor @ Texas A&M, Obama and Legislative Power, http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/obama-and-legislative-power]

But as Texas A&M professor … help Democrats maintain their majority in Congress.

Robust models prove members of Congress are only ideological

Poole 7 [Keith T. Poole, Department of Political Science, University of California, San Diego, Changing Minds? Not in Congress!, Public Choice 131:435–451]

The purpose of this paper is to …. American politics since the end of World War II.

Here’s specific evidence.  The GOP wouldn’t backlash over Payroll

USA TODAY  1 – 16 – 12 

GOP maps new strategy in wake of payroll tax debacle, http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/story/2012-01-16/gop-strategy-payroll-tax/52602518/1

 When last seen in Washington, House … taxes in an election year.

If capital matters – it’ll be for Keystone – that’s where they want to fight

THE HILL  1 – 13 – 12 

GOP hopes to seize momentum by attacking Obama on Keystone, http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/203957-gop-hopes-pipeline-is-lifeline-after-payroll-debacle

House GOP leaders hope to reclaim … approval or at least a near-term decision.

Boehner wants it to go away

Reuters 1-13 [Eric Walsh, John Boehner May Rebuff Tea Party In Upcoming Payroll Tax Cut Fight, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/13/john-boehner-payroll-tax-cut-tea-party_n_1204076.html?ref=politics]

WASHINGTON--House Speaker John ,,,here is bipartisan opposition to tax hikes."

1AR---Executive Action

Lots of executive actions now – more coming

Bloomberg 1-21 [http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-21/obama-says-action-to-boost-tourism-part-of-broader-strategy.html]

President Barack Obama said he is working to foster … mortgages more easily.

1AR---Winners Win

The plan gives Obama PC to spend elsewhere.

Lane 11 [Charles, Staff Writer @ the Washington Post, Obama can reap political capital from revolt in Egypt, February 15h, http://www.thenewstribune.com/2011/02/15/1545321/obama-can-reap-political-capital.html]

If Obama reaches out effectively … time and energy in Egypt over the rest of his term.

This is true of Obama’s foreign policy agenda.

Marshall 11 [Bryan W. and Brandon C. Prins, Miami University and University of Tennessee & Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy, Power or Posturing? Policy Availability and Congressional Influence on U.S. Presidential Decisions to Use Force, Sept, Presidential Studies Quarterly 41, no. 3]

We argue that the more … toward managing political capital at home (Fordham 2002).

Winners win is uniquely true for Obama.

Green 10 [David Michael, Professor of political science at Hofstra University, The Do-Nothing 44th President, June 12^th, http://www.opednews.com/articles/The-Do-Nothing-44th-Presid-by-David-Michael-Gree-100611-648.html]

Yet, on the other hand, … this essay are paradigmatic.

1AR—AT: Finite

That PC is finite proves winners win.

Singer 9 [Jonathan, JD – University of California, Berkeley, Editor at MyDD, By Expending Capital, Obama Grows His Capital, MyDD, March 3^rd,  http://www.mydd.com/story/2009/3/3/191825/0428]

Peter Hart gets at a key point. … to energy reform to ending the war in Iraq.

1AR—Winners Win

The link turn outweighs the link.

Gergen 2k [David, American political consultant and former presidential advisor who served during the administrations of Nixon, Ford, Reagan, and Clinton, Director of the Center for Public Leadership and a professor of public service at Harvard Kennedy School, Editor-at-large for U.S. News and World Report, Senior Political Analyst for CNN, Eyewitness to Power, p. 285]

As Richard Neustadt has pointed … as president. Sadly, he couldn't hold.

Prefer the link turn – PC will atrophy if its not spent.

Mitchell 9 [Lincon, Assistant Professor of International Law @ Columbia University, July 18^th, Time for Obama to Start Spending Political Capital, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lincoln-mitchell/time-for-obama-to-start-s_b_217235.html]

Political capital is not, however, … very likely most important, test.

Yesterday Clinton flew to Tunisia and pledged massive democracy assistance and economic support.

Guihaire 2/25 [Edouard, Agency Free Press, Clinton pledges US help to nurture north Africa democracy, Reuters Online]

ALGIERS — US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton …. if they can work more closely with each other."

This takes out all politics and perception DAs.

AFP 2/25 [Clinton pledges US help for reforms, http://gulfnews.com/news/region/tunisia/clinton-pledges-us-help-for-reforms-1.986113]

Tunis: US Secretary of State Hillary …undergoing popular uprisings.

These statements were explicit that the Administration will materially support Tunisia, but more needs to be done. 

Lee 2/25 [Matthew, ABC News, In Tunisia, Clinton Cites Promise of Arab Spring, http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/clinton-urges-tunisians-embrace-reforms-15789259#.T0ltU8017bk]

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham …. Algeria also has a history of rejecting political victories by Islamists.

Plan: The United States federal government should support judicial independence measures for Tunisia in accordance with the European Union’s Neighbourhood Action Plan.

Contention 1 – Partnership

The US-EU partnership is not strategic in the status quo – makes cooperation useless

Hamilton and Burwell 10 [Daniel S, Executive Director of the Center for Transatlantic Relations; Executive Director of the American Consortium on EU Studies; Austrian Marshall Plan Foundation Research Professor at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins, and Frances, Vice President, Director of the Program on Transatlantic Relations at the Atlantic Council, former executive director of the Center for International and Security Studies at the University of Maryland, "The Setting: The United States and Europe in a G20 World," Chapter 1, http://transatlantic.sais-jhu.edu/bin/k/u/shoulder-to-shoulder-book-finaltext.pdf]

The United States is the most important partner …you had to do it, but it was painful.

The plan provides a foundation for future cooperation through improved coordination.

Wittes and Youngs 9 [Tamara, deputy assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs at the U.S. Department of State, research fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institute, and Richard, director general of FRIDE, assistant professor at the University of Warwick, “Europe, the United States, and Middle Eastern Democracy: Repairing the Breach,” January, The Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, no 18, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2009/01_middle_eastern_democracy_wittes/01_middle_eastern_democracy_wittes.pdf]

Tensions between the United States ….can, cautiously, be rebuilt.

Joint action on the Arab spring restores the alliance and creates momentum for future policies

Castello-Catchot 11 [Carles Castello-Catchot, assistant director of the Atlantic Council’s Strategic Foresight Project, “A Transatlantic Weakness to Avoid”, New Atlanticist Policy and Analysis Blog at Atlantic Council, 9-19-2011, http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/transatlantic-weakness-avoid]

The transatlantic community is weaker … still ours to shape, and win.

Strategic alliance solves all problems – US has to change its current stance

Stivachtis 10 – Director of International Studies Program @ Virginia Polytechnic Institute  [Dr. Yannis. A. Stivachtis (Professor of Poli Sci @ Virginia Polytechnic Institute & Ph.D. in Politics & International Relations from Lancaster University), THE IMPERATIVE FOR TRANSATLANTIC COOPERATION,” The Research Institute for European and American Studies, 2010,  pg. http://www.rieas.gr/research-areas/global-issues/transatlantic-studies/78.html]

There is no doubt that US-European … act decisively against those who do not share that vision.

AND coordination of aid to the Middle East spills over to cooperation of other foreign assistance

MFAN 11 [“MFAN Principal Releases Report on Renewed U.S.-EU Development Dialgoue,” 6-30, http://www.modernizeaid.net/2011/06/]

In the face of trying …. assistance programs.

Coordination of aid is critical to stabilization of the Balkans

Larrabee 11 [F.Stephen, Distinguished Chair in European Security at the RAND Corporation, former vice president and director of studies of the Institute of East-West Security Studies in New York, e served on the U.S. National Security Council staff in the White House as a specialist on Soviet-East European affairs and East-West political-military relations, “1. Unfinished business in Europe,” http://www.iss.europa.eu/uploads/media/Transatlantic2011.pdf]

The Western Balkans are an important …. Bosnia and enhancing stability there.

Russia will get involved and use nuclear weapons

Daily Mail 11 [“War drums: Russian general warns border conflicts could lead to ‘nuclear war’,” 11-17, http://theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com/2011/11/17/russian-general-warns-border-conflicts-could-lead-to-nuclear-war/]

A chilling warning of …. joint cyber command center based in Estonia. 

Nuclear war

Scherbak 08 – Advisor to the Chair of the Parliament of Ukraine [Yuri Scherbak (President of the Institute for Sustainable Development of Ukraine), Ten Theses about the Russian-Georgian Conflict: A View from Ukraine, Heinrich Boll Stiftung – Warsaw, Nov 2008, pg. http://www.boell.pl/downloads/Georgia_war_from_UA_perspective_by_Y.Scherbak.pdf]

2. The war in Caucasus attested that … can lead to a new global conflict.  Pg. 2-3

Contention 2 – Democracy

Tunisia democracy failing now

Hassine, 2/24—a former San Diego resident and graduate of UCSD, where she was the student body’s first Arab-American president. She is now an editor at Tunisia Live, tunisialive.net(Wafa Ben, “TUNISIA IS JUST BEGINNING ITS LONG JOURNEY TO DEMOCRACY,”http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2012/feb/24/tp-tunisia-is-just-beginning-its-long-journey-to/)

Yet looking ahead, Tunisia has a …. Tunisia cannot afford crossing the line.

Failure to synergize EU and US approaches means neither is very effective – the best way to ensure democracy is to support on the ground EU programs

Youngs 4 [Richard, Coordinator of the Democratization programme at FRIDE. He is also an associate professor at the University of Warwick in the United Kingdom. Prior to joining FRIDE, he was E.U. Marie Curie Research Fellow from 2001 to 2004. He studied at Cambridge (BA Honors) and Warwick (MA, PhD) universities, and previously worked as Analyst at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, United Kingdom. Young has authored four books and edited seven volumes on different aspects of European foreign policy, Transatlantic Cooperation on Middle East Reform: A European Misjudgment?, October, http://cddrl.stanford.edu/publications/transatlantic_cooperation_on_middle_east_reform_a_european_misjudgement/]

Better Alone or Together? Europeans … American approaches to democracy promotion.

The EU has set up a template of democratic outreach for Tunisia – but more needs to be done

Koetsenruijter 11 [Adrianus, Chief of the EU delegation to Tunisia, “TUNISIA AND THE EU: WHAT NOW?,” http://www.sentinelle-tunisie.com/politique/item/tunisia-and-the-eu-what-now]

The revolution and democratisation …. else that poorer and insecure countries can produce at your border.

Coordinated assistance ensures a smooth transition – a democratic Tunisia acts as a beacon and model for the rest of the region

Allen 11 [Michael, Editor of Democracy Digest, “Tunisia: home-grown revolution needs foreign support,” 1-27, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/01/home-grown-revolution-needs-foreign-support-say-tunisians/]

The turbulence has given rise to growing ….do not outmanoeuvre the moderates.”

US influence with emerging Middle East democracies key to contain Iran

Feltman 11 [Jeffrey, Assistant Secretary of States, "House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Middle East and South Asia Hearing;

on "Assessing U.S. Foreign Policy Priorities and Needs Amidst Economic Challenges in the Middle East." 3-10, Lexis]

The Middle East is in the …. our other interests in the region.

Causes Middle East proliferation and nuclear war

Ben-Meir 07 (Alon Ben-Meir professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU, Realpolitik: Ending Iran’s defiance, 2007, http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Security-Industry/2007/02/06/Realpolitik-Ending-Irans-defiance/UPI-69491170778058/)

Feeling emboldened and unrestrained, … of not halting its nuclear program.

Multiple conditions make nuclear war highly likely

Edelman et al 11 (Eric S., Distinguished Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Andrew Krepinevich, President of the CSBA. Evan Montgomery, Research Fellow at the CSBA. “The Dangers of a Nuclear Iran: The Limits of Containment.” Foreign Affairs, January 1, 2011. http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67162/eric-s-edelman-andrew-f-krepinevich-jr-and-evan-braden-montgomer/the-dangers-of-a-nuclear-iran.)

More important, emerging …. a regional nuclear war.

Iranian nuclearization would ignite a nuclear war between Iran and Russia

Dinerman 10 [Taylor, Senior Editor at the Hudson Institute, part time consultant to the DOD, “Iran: The Geostrategic Case for Regime Change,” 8-12, http://www.hudson-ny.org/1472/iran-regime-change]

Iran's drive for nuclear …. forces of nuclear tipped missiles would menace all of its neighbors.

Failure to reform the judiciary causes backsliding – prevents democracy and risks instability

PACIELLO 11  Research associate at Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) in Rome and lecturer in Economic and Political Geography of Development at La Sapienza University of Rome

Maria Cristina Paciello, Tunisia:  Changes and Challenges of Political Transition, MEDPRO Technical Report No. 3/May 2011

 4. Possible scenarios for the future As seen above…. political intentions are not yet clear.

Backsliding creates perfect conditions for Al-Qaeda’s resurgence within the region

Hague 11 [William, “Helping the Arab Spring succeed is Britain's cause too,” 8-8, http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23976502-helping-the-arab-spring-succeed-is-britains-cause-too.do]

There will be no long-term stable …option of inaction.

Regardless of democracy – independent judiciaries prevent terrorism

FINDLEY & YOUNG  11  1. Assistant Prof Poli Sci at Brigham Young University 2. Assistant Prof of Public Affairs at American University

Michael G. Findley,  Joseph K. Young, Terrorism, Democracy, and Credible Commitments, International Studies Quarterly, Volume 55, Issue 2, pages 357–378, June 2011

 What explains the variation in terrorism …. Rubin 1983; Ho, Imai, King, and Stuart 2007).

Reinvigorated Al-Qaeda units in north Africa increases the likelihood of a terrorist attack

LE SAGE  july 11  PhD. Senior research fellow in the Center for  Strategic research, institute for national Strategic Studies, at the national Defense University

[Dr. Andre Le Sage,  The Evolving Threat of al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, Strategic Forum – National Defense University.  July 11,  INSS – Institute for National Strategic Studies]

Future Scenarios African and ….become enormously complex.

Al Qaeda will use WMD and attack the US

Kimery 11 [Anthony, Homeland Security Today's senior reporter and online editor, W. Scott Malone, multiple Emmy and Peabody award-winning investigative journalist and former senior editor of NavySEALs.com. He runs the website's counterterrorism newsletter spin-off, “BlackNET Intelligence Channel,” 05/12, “Al Qaeda Could Try to Replicate Fukushima-type Meltdowns,” http://www.hstoday.us/blogs/the-kimery-report/blog/al-qaeda-could-try-to-replicate-fukushima-type-meltdowns/aa96292934d83bb8c9f97fd9d685f32b.html]

"I consider Al Qaeda, now being ….], remains intense,” Lopez said.

Global nuclear war

Ayson 10,  Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, 2010 (Robert, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)

But these two nuclear worlds—a non-state …with a devastating response.

Easy acquisition and construction---theft, black-market, and rogue states eliminated the historic barriers that their evidence cites

Arbuckle 8 (Larry J. Arbuckle, Lieutenant, United States Navy, June 2008, “THE DETERRENCE OF NUCLEAR TERRORISM THROUGH AN ATTRIBUTION CAPABILITY,” http://edocs.nps.edu/npspubs/scholarly/theses/2008/Jun/08Jun_Arbuckle.pdf)

Of course to use a nuclear weapon in a terrorist attack, … one (Hecker, 2006, p 121).