Emory BoPa
1AC --- Plan-Text
The United States federal government should expand its civil military support element throughout Yemen to provide local governance assistance
1AC --- Military Group-Think Adv
ADVANTAGE 1 --- MILITARY GROUP THINK
DOD needs to take the lead in Yemen through CMSE --- the plan is a test case for a new global military strategy
Kotlow 3/31/11 [Colonel Kazimierz "Kaz" Kotlow, visiting senior service college fellow at Washington Institute, former defense and army attache at the U.S. Embassy in Yemen and Lebanon Former political/military advisor to the Multinational Force (MNF) Commander in Iraq, “Countering Extremism in Yemen: Beyond Interagency Cooperation,” smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/720-kotlow.pdf]
Extremism, especially violent extremism, is a clear threat to the national security of … approach more systemic and less personality dependent.
Yemen is key --- the CMSE strategy will be modeled
Mitchell 8/1/11 [Robert E. Mitchell, foreign service officer with USAID, assigned to a tour in Yemen (80s), “Yemen: Testing a New Coordinated Approach to Preventive Counterinsurgency,” smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/826-mitchell.pdf]
An American-designed strategy attempts to link … to other states in varying stages of failure and where American anti-terrorism programs are not yet active.
Military group-think is occurring now --- that leads to overemphasis on combat operations
Howard 4 [James R. Howard, major in the British Army, “Preparing for War, Stumbling to Peace: Planning for Post-conflict Operations in Iraq,” www.smallwarsjournal.com/documents/howard.pdf]
The new doctrine of Rapid, Decisive Operations … and nation building operations with disdain.80 pg. 23-24
The impact is escalatory warfare --- more conflicts are coming now
Chossudovsky 10 [Michel Chossudovsky, professor of economics @ University of Ottawa, 8/1/10, “Preparing for World War III, Targeting Iran”, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?aid=20403&context=va]
Humanity is at a dangerous crossroads. War …Venezuela and Cuba are also the object of US threats.
AND, aggressive military involvements are empirically proven
Schneider 3 [Barry R. Scheider, director, U.S. Air Force Counterproliferation Center, Maxwell Air Force Base, July 2003, “Deterring International Rivals From War and Escalation,” Know Thy Enemy: Profiles of Adversary Leaders and Their Strategic Cultures, Edited By: Barry R. Schneider and Jerrold M. Post]
Decisions taken during periods of acute stress may be … might shatter their shared complacency about the effectiveness and morality of their decisions. Pg. 8-9
CMSE solves ---
a) Interagency cooperation --- CMSE creates genuine cooperation between the DOD and other branches
Lightsey 10 [Ross F. Lightsey Sr., major assigned to the JFK Special Warfare Center and School’s 1st Special Warfare Training Group, Combat tours include on to Qatar as commander of a CMSE that had elements across Pakistan, Tajikistan and Yemen, Special Warfare, May-June 2010, “PERSISTENT ENGAGEMENT: Civil Military Support Elements [CMSE] Operating in CENTCOM,” http://afpakwar.com/blog/archives/6888]
In ongoing irregular conflicts, the civil-military support element, … Iraq and Afghanistan. We must engage these countries because the enemy is reaching out to those neighboring regions.
b) Internally --- CMSE trains military personnel civilian skills --- that changes mindsets
Shemella 6 [Paul Shemella, program manager for combating terrorism @ The Center for Civil-Military Relations, Naval Postgraduate School, December 2006, “Interagency Coordination: The Other Side of CIMIC”, www.ccmr.org/public/library_file_proxy.cfm/lid/5621]
Although CIMIC has become a term of art, … competition can make interagency coordination work for them. Alas, experience shows destructive competition occurs more often than constructive cooperation. Pg. 449-451
Cooperation is happening now --- the plan is key to effectiveness
Shemella 6 [Paul Shemella, program manager for combating terrorism @ The Center for Civil-Military Relations, Naval Postgraduate School, December 2006, “Interagency Coordination: The Other Side of CIMIC”, www.ccmr.org/public/library_file_proxy.cfm/lid/5621]
Decision-makers can create interagency ‘task forces’, giving them … their governments require for success. Pg. 452-456 *CIMIC – Civil Military Cooperation
Military structures are insular --- top-down approaches are key to solve group-think
Mills 56 [C. Wright Mills, prof of sociology at Columbia, social scientist who taught in Copenhagen, London, and Mexico City in addition to the United States. “The Power Elite” http://mavdisk.mnsu.edu/parsnk/Archive%202007-8/POL371/website/readings/the%20power%20elite.pdf]
In the twentieth century, among the industrialized nations of the world, … the interdependence of economy and warfare, is at the top level of the military educational system
1AC --- Civil War Adv
ADVANTAGE 2 --- CIVIL WAR
Civil war is coming now --- tribes are being forced to pick sides
Yemen Post 9/14/11 (U.N. Warns Against Civil War in Yemen http://yemenpost.net/Detail123456789.aspx?ID=3&SubID=4056)
In its last report on Yemen, the U.N. warned against … does not bow to his people’s demands.
Tribes are supporting the al Ahmar family to resist Saleh --- the US is ignoring tribal stances
Gundun 8/4/11 [James Gundun, U.S. spokesperson for Yemen’s Coordinating Council for the Youth Revolution of Change, “Yemeni Tribes Unify Under Western Darkness,” http://www.palestinechronicle.com/view_article_details.php?id=17020]
As this operation would provoke a new round of hostilities, … Yemen’s revolutionaries have committed themselves past the point of Saleh’s return.
US ignorance radicalizes opposition --- the US must actively support good governance strategies
Naouss 4/1/11 [Robert Naouss, *research associate @ United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and Communications Coordinator @ Carnegie Middle East Center, masters in history and international relations from 'Université Saint Joseph', “How Reluctance in Libya and Yemen Bolsters Al-Qaeda”, http://www.policymic.com/articles/how-reluctance-in-libya-and-yemen-bolsters-al-qaeda]
The present situation in Yemen is threatening to …the world’s super powers only when it suits them!
al-Ahmar tribal alliance causes civil war
Boone 6/2/11 [Jeb Boone, “Feud within key Yemen tribe could tear nation apart,” http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jun/02/world/la-fg-yemen-tribe-20110603]
If poverty-stricken Yemen collapses, the fuse will have been lighted by … a great deal harder to reverse," Johnsen said.
AND, that makes it easier for terrorists to use Yemen as a launching point for attacks on Saudi oil supplies
Juneau 10 [Thomas, Middle East Policy Council Journal Essay, “Yemen: Prospects for State Failure - Implications and Remedies” Volume 17, Issue 3, pages 134–152, Fall 2010]
The convergence of multiple and intensifying challenges raises the strong possibility that … though this is plausible, there is no hard evidence of the group’s plans.
AND, that causes prices to skyrocket
Atuanya 3/10/11 – Consultant geologist and geophysicist with about 3 decades of activity in the energy sector [Dennis U. Atuanya (B.Sc. Hons (Geology), M.Sc. (Geophysics)), “Global Crude Oil Prices: The Lingering Uncertainty,” Seeking Alpha, March 10, 2011, pg. http://seekingalpha.com/article/257535-global-crude-oil-prices-the-lingering-uncertainty]
In terms of global reserves, the MENA region holds about 60% … oil price shock, possibly the "mother of all."
Yemen is a chokepoint for the oil market --- instability will influence global prices
Markman 4/5/11 [Jon D. Markman, journalist and portfolio manager for The Markman Portfolios, “Rising Oil Prices: Is Yemen Next?”, http://seekingalpha.com/article/261969-rising-oil-prices-is-yemen-next]
Going forward, however, the next culprit in this saga of rising oil prices … in jeopardy. But also you have one more major oil exporter that is then not exporting.
Oil price will reach $300 in the short-term --- critical industries will shutdown
Babej 3/29/11 - Contributor to Forbes [Marc E. Babej, “A Saudi Oil Supply Disruption-The Ultimate Marketing Crisis Scenario,” Forbes, 3/29/2011 @ 01:48PM |pg. http://www.forbes.com/sites/marcbabej/2011/03/29/a-saudi-oil-supply-disruption-the-ultimate-marketing-crisis-scenario/]
And still: in 2011, the term “unlikely” doesn’t quite carry the weight it used to. When I … try to minimize shipping, rethink their supply chains and increase prices for products containing oil derivatives. * Vance Scott - Partner at A.T. Kearney who leads the Energy and Chemicals Practice in the Americas.
The impact is global energy wars and expanded coal use
King 8 – Researcher @ Center for New American Security [Neil King, Jr. (Columnist for the Wall Street Journal), “Peak Oil: A Survey of Security Concerns,” CNAS Energy Security Visionaries Series, Center for New American Security, JULY 2008, pg. www.aspousa.org/aspousa4/.../_CNAS_King_Peak_Oil_WorkingPaper.pdf]
Many commentators in the United States and abroad have begun to wrestle with the … period of education that would help the pubic and their elected leaders take the wise steps and avoid the rash ones. Pg. 13-15
Expanded coal use causes warming and massive species fallout --- causes extinction
Hansen 9 - Director of Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies [James Hansen (Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences @ Columbia University and Ph.D. in Physics from the University of Iowa), “Coal-fired power stations are death factories. Close them,” The Observer, Sunday 15 February 2009, pg. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/feb/15/james-hansen-power-plants-coal]
A year ago, I wrote to Gordon Brown asking him to place a moratorium on … its proportionate contribution to the number that would be committed to extinction if carbon dioxide rose another 100 ppm.
Warming is real and man-made
Rahmstorf 8 [Richard, *Professor of Physics of the Oceans at Potsdam University, Global Warming: Looking Beyond Kyoto. Edited by Ernesto Zedillo. “Anthropogenic Climate Change?” Page 42-49]
The first and crucial piece of evidence …around the world (many of whom were initially quite skeptical, including myself) that anthropogenic global warming is a reality with which we need to deal.
AND, US-China war results in nuclear escalation
Starke 9 – Colonel in the US Army [Colonel Timothy J. Starke, “China’s Military and Space Transformation: Implications for U.S. and Northeast-Asia,” Strategy Research Project, 24-03-2009, pg. http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA500675&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf]
Prospects of violent conflict … fuel U.S. mistrust of China’s true intentions. Pg. 1
AND, Arctic conflict will be a US-Russia nuclear war
Matthews 9 [Owen Matthews, “The coldest war: Russia and U.S. face off over Arctic resources,” Daily Mail, Last updated at 10:08 AM on 19th May 2009, pg. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1184291/The-coldest-war-Russia-U-S-face-Arctic-resources.html]
The year is 2020, and, from the Middle East to Nigeria, the world is …, which are designed to evade U.S. missile defence shields and destroy entire cities.
That causes extinction
Starr 10 - Director of Clinical Laboratory Science Program @ University of Missouri [Steven Starr (Senior scientist @ Physicians for Social Responsibility.), “The climatic consequences of nuclear war” | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 12 March 2010, Pg. http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/op-eds/the-climatic-consequences-of-nuclear-war]
This isn't a question to be avoided. Recent scientific … war would cause a global famine that could kill one billion people.
CMSE is key --- assistance solves underlying grievances that cause disputes
Walsh 10 - Civil affairs team leader in the Pacific Command supporting 97th Civil Affairs Battalion (Airborne) [Captain Sean P. Walsh (deployed to Iraq in 2007-2008 as a member of the 2d Stryker Cavalry Regiment and served as a rifle platoon leader and civil military planner.), “Divorce Counseling: Civil Affairs Proponency under a New Support Paradigm,” MILITARY REVIEW, November-December 2010]
Described by the Army as “gun-toting diplomats,” … insurgency an irrelevant mode of pursuing a grievance.”4 pg. 71
AND, the plan prevents escalation of conflicts and civil war
Lightsey 10 – Major assigned to the JFK Special Warfare Center and School’s 1st Special Warfare Training Group. Combat tours include on to Qatar as commander of a CMSE that had elements across Pakistan, Tajikistan and Yemen. [Major Ross F. Lightsey Sr.,“PERSISTENT ENGAGEMENT: Civil Military Support Elements [CMSE] Operating in CENTCOM,” Special Warfare | May-June 2010 (Vol. 23, Issue 3) Pg. http://afpakwar.com/blog/archives/6888
Nonkinetic strategy - In a 2009 article in Foreign Affairs, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said, “Where possible, … — but we can gain their trust and confidence that the U.S. government will do the right thing at the right time.
CMSE will coordinate with local community leaders --- that expands governance capacity and accountability
Lightsey 10 – Major assigned to the JFK Special Warfare Center and School’s 1st Special Warfare Training Group. Combat tours include on to Qatar as commander of a CMSE that had elements across Pakistan, Tajikistan and Yemen. [Major Ross F. Lightsey Sr.,“PERSISTENT ENGAGEMENT: Civil Military Support Elements [CMSE] Operating in CENTCOM,” Special Warfare | May-June 2010 (Vol. 23, Issue 3) Pg. http://afpakwar.com/blog/archives/6888
So how have these engagements brought us closer to stability in …A more concerted nonkinetic effort in Pakistan will avert total military involvement in that critical region.
CMSE is key to diplomacy
Lightsey 8 – Major assigned to the JFK Special Warfare Center and School’s 1st Special Warfare Training Group. Combat tours include on to Qatar as commander of a CMSE that had elements across Pakistan, Tajikistan and Yemen. [Major Ross F. Lightsey Sr., “Civil Affairs Support to the Surge,” Special Warfare, March-April 2008, Volume 21 Issue 2]
DIME principle - Commanders in the 21st-century Army …depressed areas and to jump-start local economies. Pg. 21
