GSU Rd 1 Aff

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• Plan

   

  Text:

   

  The United States federal government should expand its civil military support element to support political contestation throughout Yemen.

   

  ADV 1- Military Group Think

   

   

  Advantage 1 – Military Group Think

   

  Dod should take the lead in Yemen through CMSE- it acts as a test case

  Kotlow 3/31/11 - Visiting Senior Service College Fellow at The Washington Institute. Former Defense and Army Attache at the U.S. Embassy in Yemen and Lebanon [Colonel Kazimierz "Kaz" Kotlow (Former political/military advisor to the Multinational Force (MNF) Commander in Iraq.) “Countering Extremism in Yemen: Beyond Interagency Cooperation,” Small Wars Journal, March 31, 2011]

   

  Extremism, especially violent extremism… more systemic and less personality dependent.

   

  Yemen’s key- the approach will be the model

  Mitchell 8/1/11 - Foreign Service Officer with USAID. Assigned to a tour in Yemen (80s) [Robert E. Mitchell, “Yemen: Testing a New Coordinated Approach to Preventive Counterinsurgency,” Small Wars Journal, August 1, 2011]

   

  An American-designed strategy …to other states in varying stages of failure and where American anti-terrorism programs are not yet active.

   

  This makes escalatory warfare inevitable- attacks are coming

  Chossudovsky 10 - Professor of Economics @ University of Ottawa [Michel Chossudovsky (Director of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), “Preparing for World War III, Targeting Iran,” Global Research, August 1, 2010, pg. http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?aid=20403&context=va]

  Humanity is at a dangerous crossroads. … Venezuela and Cuba are also the object of US threats.

   

   

   

   

  CMSE solves- two internal links

   

  a. Interagency- It creates genuine cooperation between the DOD and other branches

  Lightsey 10 – Major assigned to the JFK Special Warfare Center and School’s 1st Special Warfare Training Group. Combat tours include on to Qatar as commander of a CMSE that had elements across Pakistan, Tajikistan and Yemen. [Major Ross F. Lightsey Sr.,“PERSISTENT ENGAGEMENT: Civil Military Support Elements [CMSE] Operating in CENTCOM,” Special Warfare | May-June 2010 (Vol. 23, Issue 3) Pg. http://afpakwar.com/blog/archives/6888

   

  In ongoing irregular conflicts, the … these countries because the enemy is reaching out to those neighboring regions.

                                                                                                                                                                                            

  b. Internally- trains military personnel civilian skills necessary to change mindsets

   Shemella 06 - Program Manager for Combating Terrorism @ The Center for Civil-Military Relations, Naval Postgraduate School [PAUL SHEMELLA, “Interagency Coordination: The Other Side of CIMIC,” Small Wars and Insurgencies, Vol. 17, No. 4, 449–457, December 2006

   

  Although CIMIC has become a term of art, it is important to remember … shows destructive competition occurs more often than constructive cooperation. Pg. 449-451

   

  Cooperation attempts are occurring now- only the plan makes them substantive

  Shemella 06 - Program Manager for Combating Terrorism @ The Center for Civil-Military Relations, Naval Postgraduate School [PAUL SHEMELLA, “Interagency Coordination: The Other Side of CIMIC,” Small Wars and Insurgencies, Vol. 17, No. 4, 449–457, December 2006

   

  Decision-makers can create … require for success. Pg. 452-456 *CIMIC – Civil Military Cooperation

   

   

  The aff solves the military and the K doesn’t - status quo military training reinforces closed mindsets that dictate a military reality

  Wright Mills 1956 Professor of Sociology at Columbia University. A maverick social scientist who taught in Copenhagen, London, and Mexico City in addition to the United States. “The Power Elite” http://mavdisk.mnsu.edu/parsnk/Archive%202007-8/POL371/website/readings/the%20power%20elite.pdf

   

  In the twentieth century, among … with the interdependence of economy and warfare, is at the top level of the military educational system

   

   

   

  Military response in Yemen now is counterterrorism- makes failure inevitable

  Johnsen 7/21/11 – Ph.D Candidate Near Eastern Studies @ Princeton University [Gregory Johnsen (Former Fulbright Fellow in Yemen & Former member of the USAID's conflict assessment team for Yemen) “Drones Instead of a Strategy,” Waq al Waq, July 21, 2011, 12:44 PM, http://bigthink.com/ideas/39394]

   

  Now, contrary to what some seem to believe I'm not an … replaced by new recruits.

   

   

   

  ADV 2- Civil War

  Advantage 2 – Civil war

   

   

  Civil war is coming now --- tribes are being forced to pick sides

  Yemen Post 9/14/11 (U.N. Warns Against Civil War in Yemen http://yemenpost.net/Detail123456789.aspx?ID=3&SubID=4056)

   

  In its last report on Yemen, the … Saleh does not bow to his people’s demands.

   

  Tribes are supporting the al Ahmar family to violently resist Saleh- the US will ignore this

  Gundun 8/4/11 - U.S. spokesperson for Yemen’s Coordinating Council for the Youth Revolution of Change (CCYRC). [James Gundun, “Yemeni Tribes Unify Under Western Darkness,” Palestine Chronicle,” 17:02 08/04/2011, pg. http://www.palestinechronicle.com/view_article_details.php?id=17020]

   

  As this operation would provoke a new round of hostilities, Yemen’s …of the country or Somalizing it,” Yemen’s revolutionaries have committed themselves past the point of Saleh’s return.

   

  This silence radicalizes the opposition – US must actively support good governance

  Naouss 4/1/11 – Research Associate @ United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and Communications Coordinator @ Carnegie Middle East Center. [Robert Naouss (Masters in history and international relations from 'Université Saint Joseph') “How Reluctance in Libya and Yemen Bolsters Al-Qaeda,” Policymic, April 2011, Pg. http://www.policymic.com/articles/how-reluctance-in-libya-and-yemen-bolsters-al-qaeda]

   

  The present situation in Yemen is … only when it suits them!

   

  AND, that makes it easier for terrorists to use Yemen as a launching point for attacks on Saudi oil supplies

  Juneau 10 [Thomas, Middle East Policy Council Journal Essay, “Yemen: Prospects for State Failure - Implications and Remedies” Volume 17, Issue 3, pages 134–152, Fall 2010]

   

  The convergence of multiple and intensifying challenges raises the strong possibility that Yemen… hard evidence of the group’s plans.

   

   

  AND, that causes prices to skyrocket

  Markman 4/5/11 - Journalist and Portfolio manager for The Markman Portfolios [Jon D. Markman, “Rising Oil Prices: Is Yemen Next?,” Seeking Alpha, April 5, 2011, pg. http://seekingalpha.com/article/261969-rising-oil-prices-is-yemen-next]

   

  Going forward, however, the next culprit… oil exporter that is then not exporting.

   

  It will destabilize Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province - Oil prices will skyrocket

  STRATFOR 4/21/11 [“Islamist Militancy in a Pre- and Post-Saleh Yemen,” April 21, 2011 | 0859 GMT, pg. http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110420-islamist-militancy-pre-and-post-saleh-yemen]

   

  The real heavyweight in Yemen is Saudi Arabia. The Saudi … in channeling jihadist efforts toward the al-Houthi threat.

   

   

  Oil price will reach $300 in the near term – Critical industries will shutdown

  Babej 3/29/11 - Contributor to Forbes [Marc E. Babej, “A Saudi Oil Supply Disruption-The Ultimate Marketing Crisis Scenario,” Forbes, 3/29/2011 @ 01:48PM |pg.  http://www.forbes.com/sites/marcbabej/2011/03/29/a-saudi-oil-supply-disruption-the-ultimate-marketing-crisis-scenario/]

   

  And still: in 2011, the term “unlikely” doesn’t … Energy and Chemicals Practice in the Americas.

   

  Global energy wars & expanded fossil fuel use

  King 08 – Researcher @ Center for New American Security [Neil King, Jr. (Columnist for the Wall Street Journal), “Peak Oil: A Survey of Security Concerns,” CNAS Energy Security Visionaries Series, Center for New American Security, JULY 2008, pg. www.aspousa.org/aspousa4/.../_CNAS_King_Peak_Oil_WorkingPaper.pdf]

   

  Many commentators in the United States and abroad … take the wise steps and avoid the rash ones. Pg. 13-15

   

  AND, US-China war risks World War III

  Starke 09 – Colonel in the US Army [Colonel Timothy J. Starke, “China’s Military and Space Transformation: Implications for U.S. and Northeast-Asia,” Strategy Research Project, 24-03-2009, pg. http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA500675&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf]

   

  Prospects of violent conflict between the … of China’s true intentions.  Pg. 1

   

   

  AND, Arctic conflict will be a US-Russia nuclear war 

  Matthews 09 [Owen Matthews, “The coldest war: Russia and U.S. face off over Arctic resources,” Daily Mail, Last updated at 10:08 AM on 19th May 2009, pg. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1184291/The-coldest-war-Russia-U-S-face-Arctic-resources.html]

   

  The year is 2020, and, from the Middle East to Nigeria, the world is … and destroy entire cities.

   

  Extinction

  Starr 10 - Director of Clinical Laboratory Science Program @ University of Missouri [Steven Starr (Senior scientist @ Physicians for Social Responsibility.), “The climatic consequences of nuclear war” | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 12 March 2010, Pg. http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/op-eds/the-climatic-consequences-of-nuclear-war]

   

  This isn't a question to be avoided. … would cause a global famine that could kill one billion people.

   

  Expanded Coal use causes warming and massive species fallout- risks extinction

  Hansen 09 - Director of Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies [James Hansen (Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences @  Columbia University and Ph.D. in Physics  from the University of Iowa),  “Coal-fired power stations are death factories. Close them,” The Observer, Sunday 15 February 2009,  pg. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/feb/15/james-hansen-power-plants-coal]

   

  A year ago, I wrote to Gordon Brown asking him to place … contribution to the number that would be committed to extinction if carbon dioxide rose another 100 ppm.

   

   

  Warming is real and anthropogenic

  Rahmstorf 8  [Richard, *Professor of Physics of the Oceans at Potsdam University, Global Warming: Looking Beyond Kyoto. Edited by Ernesto Zedillo. “Anthropogenic Climate Change?” Page 42-49]

   

  The first and crucial piece of evidence … anthropogenic global warming is a reality with which we need to deal.

   

   

  Our governance assistance is key - It resolves the underlying grievances that will facilitate conflict escalation

  Walsh 10 - Civil affairs team leader in the Pacific Command supporting 97th Civil Affairs Battalion (Airborne) [Captain Sean P. Walsh (deployed to Iraq in 2007-2008 as a member of the 2d Stryker Cavalry Regiment and served as a rifle platoon leader and civil military planner.), “Divorce Counseling: Civil Affairs Proponency under a New Support Paradigm,” MILITARY REVIEW, November-December 2010]

   

  Described by the Army as “gun-toting … of pursuing a grievance.”4 pg. 71

   

  We provide a micro-scale diplomatic model that solves

  Lightsey 08 – Major assigned to the JFK Special Warfare Center and School’s 1st Special Warfare Training Group. Combat tours include on to Qatar as commander of a CMSE that had elements across Pakistan, Tajikistan and Yemen. [Major Ross F. Lightsey Sr., “Civil Affairs Support to the Surge,” Special Warfare, March-April 2008, Volume 21 Issue 2]

   

  DIME principle - Commanders in the 21st-century Army … areas and to jump-start local economies. Pg. 21

   

   

  CMSE will coordinate with local community leader – We expand their governance capacity and accountability

  Lightsey 10 – Major assigned to the JFK Special Warfare Center and School’s 1st Special Warfare Training Group. Combat tours include on to Qatar as commander of a CMSE that had elements across Pakistan, Tajikistan and Yemen. [Major Ross F. Lightsey Sr.,“PERSISTENT ENGAGEMENT: Civil Military Support Elements [CMSE] Operating in CENTCOM,” Special Warfare | May-June 2010 (Vol. 23, Issue 3) Pg. http://afpakwar.com/blog/archives/6888

   

  So how have these engagements brought us closer to stability in … total military involvement in that critical region. 

  
  
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• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  
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• PLAN

  The United States federal government should provide political party support in accordance with the European Union’s Tunisia neighborhood action plan.

  1AC—EU RUSSIA/UKRAINE ADVANTAGE
  Advantage 1—strategic partnership

  The US-EU partnership is competitive - makes cooperation useless and undermines EU credibility.
  Hamilton & Burwell 10 [Daniel S, Executive Director of the Center for Transatlantic Relations; Executive Director of the American Consortium on EU Studies; Austrian Marshall Plan Foundation Research Professor at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins, and Frances, Vice President, Director of the Program on Transatlantic Relations at the Atlantic Council, former executive director of the Center for International and Security Studies at the University of Maryland, The Setting: The United States and Europe in a G20 World, Chapter 1, http://transatlantic.sais-jhu.edu/bin/k/u/shoulder-to-shoulder-book-finaltext.pdf]

  The United States is the … the myriad challenges they face?

  Synergized US-EU action on Middle Eastern democracy strengthens the overall relationship.
  Youngs 4 [Richard, Coordinator of the Democratization programme at FRIDE. He is also an associate professor at the University of Warwick in the United Kingdom. Prior to joining FRIDE, he was E.U. Marie Curie Research Fellow from 2001 to 2004. He studied at Cambridge (BA Honors) and Warwick (MA, PhD) universities, and previously worked as Analyst at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, United Kingdom. Young has authored four books and edited seven volumes on different aspects of European foreign policy, Transatlantic Cooperation on Middle East Reform: A European Misjudgment?, October, http://cddrl.stanford.edu/publications/transatlantic_cooperation_on_middle_east_reform_a_european_misjudgement/]

  Better Alone or Together? Europeans … American approaches to democracy promotion. 

  Cooperation over democracy assistance is … crucial to amending the alliance
  Melia, 9—Deputy Assistant Secretary of State in the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor, at the United States Department of State. Melia's portfolio includes Europe, South and Central Asia, and international labor rights. (Thomas, “Supporting Democracy Abroad: Transatlantic Cooperation at a Crossroads,” November 19th, 2009, http://transatlantic.sais-jhu.edu/transatlantic-topics/Articles/eu-us/forging-eu-us-partnership/us-eu_book_democracy_thomas_melia.pdf)

  The United States and the … strengthen democracy in the world?

  The plan provides a foundation for future cooperation through improved coordination.
  Wittes 9 [Tamara – Senior Fellow in the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings and directs the Center’s Project on Middle East De- mocracy and Development. Her most recent book is Freedom’s Unsteady March: America’s Role in Building Arab Democracy. Previously, she served as Middle East Specialist at the U.S. Institute of Peace and Director of Programs at the Middle East Institute. Her work has addressed a wide range of topics, including the Israeli- Palestinian peace negotiations, Arab politics, and eth- nic conflict. She edited How Israelis and Palestinians Negotiate: A Cross-Cultural Analysis of the Oslo Peace Process. She is also an adjunct professor of security studies at Georgetown University and a member of Women in International Security and the Council on Foreign Relations, Richard Youngs – Coordinator of the Democrati- sation programme at FRIDE. He is also an associate professor at the University of Warwick in the United Kingdom. Prior to joining FRIDE, he was E.U. Marie Curie Research Fellow from 2001 to 2004. He stud- ied at Cambridge (BA Hons) and Warwick (MA, PhD) universities, and previously worked as Analyst at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, United Kingdom. Young has authored four books and edited seven vol- umes on different aspects of European foreign policy, Europe, the United States, and Middle Eastern Democracy: Repairing the Breach, The Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, January, Number 18, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc /papers/2009/01_middle_eastern_democracy_wittes/01_middle_eastern_democracy_wittes.pdf]

  Executive Summary Tensions between the … East can, cautiously, be rebuilt.

  Absent improved coordination Europe becomes a counterweight – makes all problems inevitable.
  Stivachtis 10  [Yannis. A., Director of International Studies Program @ Virginia Polytechnic Institute, Professor of Poli Sci @ Virginia Polytechnic Institute & Ph.D. in Politics & International Relations from Lancaster University, The Imperative for Transatlantic Cooperation, The Research Institute for European and American Studies, http://www.rieas.gr/research-areas/global-issues/transatlantic-studies/78.html]
   
  There is no doubt that US-… from reading newspapers and magazines. 

  Coordination solves Ukrainian stability and structural weakness.
  Stivachtis 10  [Yannis. A., Director of International Studies Program @ Virginia Polytechnic Institute, Professor of Poli Sci @ Virginia Polytechnic Institute & Ph.D. in Politics & International Relations from Lancaster University, The Imperative for Transatlantic Cooperation, The Research Institute for European and American Studies, http://www.rieas.gr/research-areas/global-issues/transatlantic-studies/78.html]
   
  But while elites on both … to make this potential a reality. 

  The impact is Ukraine conflict, European wars, Chechen conflict, and regional instability.
  Karatnycky 9 [Adrian – Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council of the United States and Managing Partner of the Myrmidon Group LLC, Alexander J. Motyl – Professor of Political Science at Rutgers University in Newark, New Jersey, The Key to Kiev Ukraine’s Security Means Europe’s Stability, http://www.ukrainianstudies.org/aaus-list/0904/pdf00001.pdf]

  On January 7, 2009, after an unexpectedly … the more pragmatic- sounding Medvedev.

  It would result in a Russian first strike.
  Pry 99 [Vincent, President of EMPACT America, Served on the Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States established by the U.S. Congress (2008-2009); as Director of the United States Nuclear Strategy Forum, an advisory body to Congress on policies to counter Weapons of Mass Destruction (2005-2009); on the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack (also commonly known as the EMP Commission), established by the U.S. Congress (2001-2008); as Professional Staff on the House Armed Services Committee of the U.S. Congress, with portfolios in nuclear strategy, WMD, Russia, China, NATO, the Middle East, intelligence, and terrorism (1995-2001); as an Intelligence Officer with the Central Intelligence Agency responsible for analyzing Soviet and Russian nuclear strategy and operational plans (1985-1995), where he was formally recognized by the agency for his expertise, groundbreaking research, and his outstanding accomplishments during his 10 years of service; and as a Verification Analyst at the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency responsible for assessing Soviet compliance with nuclear and strategic forces arms control treaties (1984-1985), War Scare, pg. 277]

  Russo-Ukrainian tensions are dangerous … or real intention of participating.

  That’s the greatest existential threat.
  Bostrom 2 [Nick Bostrom, Professor of Philosophy and Global Studies at Yale, Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards, www.transhumanist.com/volume9/risks.html]

  A much greater existential risk … or thwart humankind’s potential permanently. 

  That coordination is key to solve regional instability
  Perthes 4 [Head of the Middle East and Africa Research Group at Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Berlin, America’s “Greater Middle East” and Europe: Key Issues for Dialogue, http://vps.stanleyfoundation.org/initiatives/gsi/papers/mepc_perthes.pdf] 

  The Arab-Israeli conflict and … a pluralistic system emerging from within.

  Middle East instability causes nuclear war.  
  Ferguson 7 [Niall, British historian who specializes in financial and economic history, Should we Simply Ignore the Mideast, June 2007, http://www.kurdnas.com/en/index2.php?option=com_content&do_pdf=1&id=53)]

  As I said, there's no shortage … you have a recipe for Armageddon. 

  1AC—CRED ADVANTAGE
  Advantage 2 is credibility 

  Credibility in the Middle East is low now due to a lack of a coherent Tunisia policy.
  Robison 11 (Gordon, Teaches Middle East Politics at the University of Vermont, Taught Islamic history at Emerson College, Will Obama walk the talk in Tunisia?, Special Column @ Gulf News, January 26th, http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/will-obama-walk-the-talk-in-tunisia-1.752012)

  America's political and media elite … , will do the right thing.

  Despite successful elections, serious governmental support is necessary to prevent polarization of the Tunisian people
  Churchill, 11—an independent development consultant based in Tunisia. His blog, "A 21st Century Social Contract," offers a perspective on life in Tunis since the fall of President Zine el-Abedine Ben Ali (Erik, “Putting Tunisian Democracy to the Test,” October 17th, 2011, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/10/17/putting_tunisian_democracy_to_the_test)

  This Sunday, Tunisians will finally … will accept these political compromises.
  The transition process, including the elections, has been placed under the guidance of what has become known as the Ben Achour commission, after its chairman, Tunisian lawyer Yadh Ben Achour. There have been controversies. For instance, Ennahdha felt it was underrepresented on the commission and eventually withdrew following the postponement of elections in June. But Ben Achour has managed to keep the trust of most of the actors  at least on an interim basis.
  Working under the Ben Achour Commission, the Independent Electoral Commission (ISIE), led by Kamel Jendoubi, has shown competence, independence, and ability to adjust to changing circumstances. Although ISIE encountered voter apathy during its registration drive in July, it has shown its commitment to fairness through several difficult decisions  most importantly, the banning of political advertising in the final weeks of the election. It has worked to ensure that voters understand the role of the constituent assembly (a confusing concept, especially given the ambiguity of its mandate) and the logistics of voting  to both literate and illiterate Tunisians. It has facilitated the presence of thousands of foreign and domestic elections observers in the last month in the run up to the election. Despite lingering reservations over the transition process, most Tunisians are eager to cast their ballots and are reasonably confident in the electoral authority.
  The government, under the presidency … from the Ben Ali regime. 

  Additionally, the EU task force through the neighborhood policy is key to ensure long term political reform in Tunisia
  Dennison et al, 11—member of the European Council on Foreign Relations, which is the first pan-European think-tank. Launched in October 2007, its objective is to conduct research and promote informed debate across Europe on the development of coherent, effective and values-based European foreign policy (Susi, “After the Revolution: Europe and the Transition in Tunisia,” European Council on Foreign Relations, March 2011, ecfr.eu)

  Supporting the development of a more … in the region this time. 

  Three internal links—
  A) the US must work … to reframe perceptions of democracy
  Katulis, 9 – a Senior Fellow at American Progress, where his work focuses on U.S. national security policy in the Middle East and South Asia (Brian, “Democracy Promotion in the Middle east and the Obama Administration,” The Century Foundation, http://tcf.org/publications/pdfs/pb681/Katulis.pdf)

  In addition to taking these … democracy in the Middle East.

  B) Recognition of the Islamic government is key to reverse perceptions of the US
  Etzioni, 11—served as a senior advisor to the Carter White House; taught at Columbia University, Harvard, University of California at Berkeley and is a professor at The George Washington University (Amitai, “Tunisia: The First Arab Islamocracy,” October 26th, 2011, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/tunisia-the-first-arab-islamocracy-6084)

  Tunisia, significantly the first Arab … of values we hold dear.

  C) US backing of Tunisia specifically is essential to precipitate democracy. An emphasis on the economy will hinder political change  
  Innocent, 11 – a foreign policy analyst at the Cato Institute and blogs for The Skeptics at The National Interest (Malou, “Populist Discontent in Tunisia,” January 18th, 2011, http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/populist-discontent-tunisia-omen-other-us-backed-regimes-the-4739)

  Washington can take sides, although … go from bad to worse.

  Two impacts—
  A) Democracy—The plan creates a … democracy in the Arab world.
  Khalilzad 11 (Zalmay, Member of the board of the National Endowment for Democracy, Former US Ambassador to Iraq, Afghanistan and the United Nations under President George W. Bush, Democracy in Tunisia is just the start, January 19th, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/552d3632-2405-11e0-bef0-00144feab49a.html#axzz1YWMpxvTt)

  Whether or not Tunisia’s revolution … and Europe must act quickly.

  Democracy solves conflict – multiple ways
  LAPPIN  09  PhD candidate at the Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium under the supervision of Prof. Dr. Luc Reychler
  Richard Lappin, What Democracy? Exploring the Absent Centre of Post-Conflict Democracy Assistance, Journal of Peace, Conflict and Development, Issue 14, July 2009, http://www.humansecuritygateway.com/documents/JPCD_ExploringAbsentCentrePostConflictDemocracyAssistance.pdf

  Security
  The relationship between democracy and … Ted Gurr, ―inhibits communal rebellion‖ 25 .

  b) Transitions— relative power is … the stability of the system
  Zakaria, 11 – Ph.D. in Government from Harvard University, & editor of Foreign Affairs magazine & Newsweek Internationa & professor of IR and political philosophy at Harvard and Columbia University (Fareed, “Post American World 2.0,” Published in 2011)

  6. Legitimacy is power. The … ideas is close to everything.
  The Bush administration never seemed to understand the practical value of legitimacy in run-up to the Iraq war. American officials would contest the view that they were isolated by pointing to their allies in “new Europe,” Asia, and Africa—many of whom were bribed or cajoled into the coalition. And while the governments of Central Europe supported Washington, its people opposed it in almost the same numbers as in old Europe. Missing this distinction, Washington misunderstood Turkey, a long-standing and faithful ally that had become much more democratic over the 1990s. The government wanted to back the United States, but more than 90 percent of the Turkish people opposed it. The result, after a close parliamentary vote, was that Turkey could not support the United States—which meant the two-front war against Saddam became a one-front war, the United States had the support of a majority of the people in only one country in the world, Israel. And while one might laud Tony Blair for his loyalty, one cannot expect most democratic politicians to ignore the wishes of vast majorities of their people.
  Nationalism in a unipolar world can … the world for so long. 

  Credibility in the world is key to ensure that the EU doesn’t abandon the US as an ally and that the American public doesn’t become isolationist
  Kagan, 4 – Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. This essay is adapted from the afterword of the paperback edition of Of Paradise and Power (Robert, “American Crisis of Legitimacy,” Foreign Affairs, March/April 2004, Vol. 83, Issue 2, p. 65)

  THE IMPORTANCE OF BEING LEGITIMATE
  AMERICANS MIGHT be tempted, therefore, … and those who share them.
  The United States' conduct in Iraq today is especially important in this regard. At stake is the future not only of Iraq and the Middle East more generally but also of the United States' reputation, its reliability, and its legitimacy as a world leader. The United States will be judgedas it should beby the care and commitment it takes to secure a democratic peace in Iraq. It will be judged by whether it indeed advances the cause of liberalism, there and elsewhere, or whether it merely defends its own interests.
  The United States, in short, … than their attraction for the UN.

  US will become uncooperative and … prior to the possible crossover.19 pg. 647-650

  Power transition alone causes extinction
  Nye 90 - Former assistant secretary of … we know it may end.