Plan: The United States Federal Government should offer the Egyptian Parliament assistance for anti-corruption reform for Egypt
Advantage 1
Contention One: Stability
SCAF has secretly amended Egyptian investment laws to further corruption
Marroushi and Hyde 3-15
Nadine Marroushi and Maggie Hyde, Marroushi=Editor of African Energy and Gulf States Newsletter with a Master's degree at the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London, graduating with a distinction in Near and Middle East Studies, Hyde=writer for AP, “SCAF's investment law offers impunity in corruption cases,” http://www.egyptindependent.com/node/714506
Days before the chamber of … and not just investors,” Salah said.
Corruption will cause cycles of instability in Egypt – reform is key
May 12-27
(Theodore May, Editor's Note: Theodore May is an analyst at Ergo, a global intelligence and advisory firm with extensive experience in Middle Eastern political and economic analysis and forecasting. He is the author of "Backpacking to Babylon," which will be released in the summer of 2012. Follow Ergo on Twitter, CNN special with Zakaria, Egypt’s sinking economy belongs to the Islamists now, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/27/egypts-sinking-economy-belongs-to-the-islamists-now/)
The economic challenges facing Egypt … that ejected Mubarak from office.
Economics outweigh all other factors
Allen 11
Michael Allen, Special Assistant for Government Relations and Public Affairs at the National Endowment for Democracy and former lecturing faculty of faculty of universities in London and Manchester, and Cranfield School of Management, “Deteriorating economy a greater threat than military to Egypt’s transition,” 9/16/11, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/09/deteriorating-economy-a-greater-threat-than-military-to-egypts-transition/
“We hope the law will be phased out … of democracy or political reform (19%).
Egyptian corruption causes instability that spills over globally
Amernick 3-13
Larry Amernick, Ageno School of Business adjunct professor of finance at GGU, “Egypt’s Economic Breakdown Threatens Region,” 3/13/12, http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1331647200.php
February 11 marked the first … naval presence in the Persian Gulf.
Economic crisis in Egypt causes global economic collapse
Michael Schuman, M.A. in International Affairs from Columbia, has corresponded for Forbes, TIME, and WSJ, 2/2/2011 (http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/02/02/does-the-turmoil-in-egypt-threaten-the-global-recovery/#ixzz1TT6k4O6d)
At first glance, the upheaval … just such an unwelcome surprise.
Economic collapse causes global nuclear war
Merlini, Senior Fellow – Brookings, 11
[Cesare Merlini, nonresident senior fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe and chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Italian Institute for International Affairs (IAI) in Rome. He served as IAI president from 1979 to 2001. Until 2009, he also occupied the position of executive vice chairman of the Council for the United States and Italy, which he co-founded in 1983. His areas of expertise include transatlantic relations, European integration and nuclear non-proliferation, with particular focus on nuclear science and technology. A Post-Secular World? DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2011.571015 Article Requests: Order Reprints : Request Permissions Published in: journal Survival, Volume 53, Issue 2 April 2011 , pages 117 - 130 Publication Frequency: 6 issues per year Download PDF Download PDF (~357 KB) View Related Articles To cite this Article: Merlini, Cesare 'A Post-Secular World?', Survival, 53:2, 117 – 130]
Two neatly opposed scenarios … secular absolutes such as unbridled nationalism.
Egyptian instability causes wildfire prolif throughout the Middle East
Sokolski 11
Henry Sokolski, executive director of The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center and former Deputy for Nonproliferation Policy in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, 2/8/11, “The New Republic: Revolts Stir Up Nuclear Sentiment,” The New Republic (also published by NPR), http://www.npr.org/2011/02/08/133588036/the-new-republic-revolts-could-fuel-nuclear-desires
Even more dangerously, unlike … for securing U.S. nuclear cooperation.
Egypt is the cornerstone of global nonproliferation
Cirincione 11
Joe Cirincione, former director for non-proliferation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, professor of foreign service at Georgetown, 2/13/11, “Egypt's Nuclear Dimension,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/joe-cirincione/egypts-nuclear-dimension_b_822588.html [NOTE: Brackets in original – not added]
As a free Egypt transforms … close ties with the United States.
Proliferation means small conflicts go nuclear
Sokolski 9, executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, serves on the U.S. congressional Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism, ‘9 (Henry, Avoiding a Nuclear Crowd, Policy Review June & July, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/46390537.html)
At a minimum, such … would ever want.
Anti-corruption is key to increase investment and stabilize the economy
Sarif 11-11
(Ibrahim Saif, resident scholar at the Carnegie Middle East Center. An economist specializing in the political economy of the Middle East, November 2011, CHALLENGES OF EGYPT’S ECONOMIC TRANSITION)
Reassure the Private Sector About … investing in Egypt therefore remains high.
Assistance for reform spurs foreign investment and stabilizes Egypt
Daily News 11
The Daily News Egypt 7/26/11, http://thedailynewsegypt.com/economy/egypt-must-foster-private-investment-report-suggests.html
Egyptians would also benefit … turbulent region,” the report said.
Advantage 2
Contention 2: Partnership
US/Egypt economic partnership is key to broader economic and trade ties in the Middle East
Schott and Kotschwar 10
Jeffrey J. Schott, senior fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics, former professor at Georgetown and official at the Treasury Department, and Barbara Kotschwar, economics professor, Georgetown, 1/10, “Reengaging Egypt: Options for US-Egypt Economic Relations,” http://bookstore.piie.com/book-store/4396.html
Revitalizing US-Egypt economic …partnership in the MENA region.
US/Egypt economic partnership can enable peace in the Middle East
Schott and Kotschwar 10
Jeffrey J. Schott, senior fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics, former professor at Georgetown and official at the Treasury Department, and Barbara Kotschwar, economics professor, Georgetown, 1/10, “Reengaging Egypt: Options for US-Egypt Economic Relations,” http://bookstore.piie.com/book-store/4396.html
The success of any US … policy in the Middle East.
Middle East conflict escalates and goes nuclear
Russell 09
James A. Russell, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East,” Institut Français des Relations Internationales, Spring 2009, http://www.analyst-network.com/articles/141/StrategicStabilityReconsideredProspectsforEscalationandNuclearWarintheMiddleEast.pdf
Strategic stability in the region … risk for the entire world.
Assistance for reform is key to solve climate change
Schott and Kotschwar 10
Jeffrey J. Schott, senior fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics, former professor at Georgetown and official at the Treasury Department, and Barbara Kotschwar, economics professor, Georgetown, 1/10, “Reengaging Egypt: Options for US-Egypt Economic Relations,” http://bookstore.piie.com/book-store/4396.html
The US-Egypt Strategic Economic …shared challenge of climate change.
Failure to slow the rate of warming results in extinction- environmental collapse
Atcheson 4
(John, Geologist at several federal agencies, Baltimore Sun, “Ticking time bomb”, 12-15, L/N)
The Arctic Council's recent … life on Earth. We have to act now.
US/Middle East economic ties are key to preserve the petrodollar
Freeman 07
Chas. W. Freeman, Jr., former U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, 8/21/07, “U.S. Foreign Policy and the Arab World (Part II),” The Globalist, http://www.theglobalist.com/storyid.aspx?StoryId=6314
Fifth, we Americans have a major … markets would be profound.
Petrodollar key to heg
Looney 07
Robert Looney, economics professor, Naval Postgraduate School, March-April 07, “The Iranian Oil Bourse A Threat to Dollar Supremacy?” Challenge, http://faculty.nps.edu/relooney/Rel-Challenge-07.pdf
In sum, proponents of the IOB contend … the country’s military/economic power.
Heg solves war, raises standards of living, and is better than any alternative
Barnett 11
(Thomas P.M. Barnett, Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads,
It is worth first examining the …for longer-term stability.
Advantage 3
Contention 3: Brotherhood
The new constitutional panel proves the Brotherhood has seized power, broken away from SCAF, and sidelined moderate forces
AP 3-25
AP, “Islamists are majority on Egypt constitution panel,” 3/25/12, http://www.timesonline.com/news/world/middle-east/egypt-s-islamists-dispute-military-s-intentions/article_292f7f41-b07f-58cd-91ed-7f588920f8c1.html
Egypt's Islamists have won a sizable … swept by the better-organized Islamists.
Current meetings prove the Brotherhood would say yes and their DAs are non-unique
Time 1-5
Time, “As U.S. Explores Dialogue with Muslim Brotherhood, Israelis Urge a Tougher Line Against Islamists’ Rise,” 1/5/12, http://globalspin.blogs.time.com/2012/01/05/as-u-s-explores-dialogue-with-muslim-brotherhood-israelis-urge-a-tougher-line-against-islamists-rise/#ixzz1qAa4CzU3
Unlike its predecessor, the Obama ..s Obama can only dream of.
But that engagement isn’t enough. Specifically, the Brotherhood is most concerned about economic ties and investment -- and it’s the only group willing to work with the U.S.
Hamid with PBS 1-6
Shadi Hamid, Director of Research at the Brookings Institution’s Doha Center and a fellow at its Saban Center for Middle East Policy, “Why Is America Reaching Out to Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood?,” 1/6/12, http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/foreign-affairs-defense/revolution-in-cairo-foreign-affairs-defense/why-is-america-reaching-out-to-egypts-muslim-brotherhood/
What kind of U.S.-Brotherhood …leeway in this respect.
US-Brotherhood relations are key to prevent Egypt-Israeli war
UPI 3-14
UPI, “Israel-Egypt peace pact under threat,” 3/14/12, http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2012/03/14/Israel-Egypt-peace-pact-under-threat/UPI-18051331756821/#ixzz1qMoSbAAm
CAIRO, March 14 (UPI) -- The Islamist-…Committee branded Egypt's "No. 1 enemy."
Egyptian-Israeli war uniquely likely to escalate.
Terrill 9 (W. Andrew Terrill, SSI's Middle East specialist, ESCALATION AND INTRAWAR DETERRENCE
DURING LIMITED WARS IN THE MIDDLE EAST. http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub941.pdf.)
The October 1973 Arab-Israeli War …influenced risk-taking and other wartime behaviors.
Solvency
The plan is key to put anti-corruption on the Egyptian Parliament’s agenda. Once they raise the issue, SCAF will be forced to back down
Marroushi and Hyde 3-15
Nadine Marroushi and Maggie Hyde, Marroushi=Editor of African Energy and Gulf States Newsletter with a Master's degree at the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London, graduating with a distinction in Near and Middle East Studies, Hyde=writer for AP, “SCAF's investment law offers impunity in corruption cases,” http://www.egyptindependent.com/node/714506
Though rights groups and activists have …settlement cases making use of the law.
The plan creates political will for addressing anti-corruption
Brinkerhoff 00
DERICK W. BRINKERHOFF, Abt Associates Inc. “ASSESSING POLITICAL WILL FOR ANTI-CORRUPTION EFFORTS: AN ANALYTIC FRAMEWORK,” PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION AND DEVELOPMENT Vol. 20, 239-252 (2000)
The international donor community … and should serve to strengthen political will.
Backlash DAs are inevitable-the US won’t stop until EVERY LAST Egyptian NGO can push democracy
AP 3-3
AP via Egypt Independent, “US government still wants NGO case dismissed,” 3/3/12, http://www.egyptindependent.com/node/691531
The United States said it was still … and continue their important work.
Democracy assistance is defined by rule of law, civil society, elections, and governance. Anti-corruption assistance falls under governance
McMahon 02 Edward McMahon, Director, Center on Democratic Performance Department of Political Science, Binghamton University, 8/29/02, “The Impact of U.S. Democracy and Governance Assistance in Africa: Benin Case Study,” http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PCAAB068.pdf
U.S. Democracy Assistance Donor agencies …improve their institutions and processes.
T
5. Carothers agrees the USAID definition is best (optional)
Thomas Carothers Vice President for Studies Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 2009
USAID’s democracy and governance work today ...any of the other three categories.
Their definition is outdated- they exclude the heart of the topic
Azpuru, et al 8 Azpuru, Finkel, Perez-Linan, and Seligson, Vandy, Pitt, Pitt, Vandy, ’08
(“What has the United States Been Doing?” Journal of Democracy Volume 19, Number 2, April 2008 pp. 150-159)
It is often said that Western ...-19-2.pdf.
SCAF DA
2. US will make concessions to protect its relationship-their impacts prove resiliency
Ash 3-7
Timothy Garton Ash, professor of European studies in the University of Oxford, Isaiah Berlin Professorial Fellow at St Antony's College, Oxford and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, “America, the Middle East and the strange tale of Sam LaHood,” 3/7/12, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/mar/07/america-middle-east-sam-lahood
His crime? Attempting to promote ...year? You must be joking.
4. No political will for backlash
LA Times 3-1
LA Times, “Egypt allows 7 American pro-democracy workers to leave country,” 3/1/12, http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-egypt-americans-20120301,0,3412602.story
"I think the whole trial ...of nongovernmental organizations," said Saad.
6. Engagement with the Brotherhood forces SCAF to back down
Hamid with PBS 1-6
Shadi Hamid, Director of Research at the Brookings Institution’s Doha Center and a fellow at its Saban Center for Middle East Policy, “Why Is America Reaching Out to Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood?,” 1/6/12, http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/foreign-affairs-defense/revolution-in-cairo-foreign-affairs-defense/why-is-america-reaching-out-to-egypts-muslim-brotherhood/
The more the U.S...the military to counterbalance the Islamists.
Egypt can’t cut off access – international law
Andrei Ganov, analyst at the Moscow-based Center for Strategic Estimations and Forecasts, 3/11, “Assessment of world economy’s losses from a potential Suez Canal blockade,” The Russia Corporate World, http://www.trcw.ru/en/articles/detail.php?ID=2430
Although legally speaking, the Suez ...agreements regulating the Suez maritime route.
7. Their arguments about SCAF crackdowns only hasten transition
Lynch 12-18
Mark Lynch, associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, “Egypt's Transition Can't Wait,” 12/18/11, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/12/19/egypts_transition_cant_wait?wpisrc=obinsite
This weekend's anomic violence on Qasr ...vague suggestions of some time in 2013.
--President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation; Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences; member of the Editorial Board of Russia in Global Affairs., article is based on the scientific report for which the author was awarded the Lomonosov Gold Medal of the Russian Academy of Sciences in 2008 (Yevgeny, The Fundamental Problem, "The Middle East Problem in the Context of International Relations", Russia in Global Affiars, Vol. 7, Number 3, July-September 2009, http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/105702/ichaptersection_singledocument/71a40dca-23cb-411d-9c5d-a7ce495e2522/en/12.pdf.]
The Middle East conflict is unparalleled ...whether there is a second one.
Ptx 2AC
No effect on relations – doesn’t require repeal
Ed Verona is president and CEO of the U.S.-Russia Business Council March 29, 2012 The True Cost of Jackson-Vanik http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-true-cost-jackson-vanik-6702
Thirty-eight years later, ...from the scope of that law.
Repeal of Jacson-Vanik will be coupled with human rights pressure that will negate the impact on relations – both sides are pushing for it
DESMOND BUTLER Mar. 27, 2012 US trade upgrade may worsen relations with Russia http://www.kansascity.com/2012/03/27/3516127/us-trade-upgrade-may-worsen-relations.html
The Obama administration wants Congress to ...They call it the "reset."
Won’t be struck down and it will be delayed until after the election
Eremenko 3-28
Alexey Eremenko RIA Novosti, 28/03/2012 Anti-Russian Amendment Now Headache for U.S. http://en.ria.ru/analysis/20120328/172439008.html
Economic sanctions against Russia imposed by ...U.S. presidential elections.
Won’t happen until after Russia’s in the WTO
Jourdain 3-16
AFP/ Stephane Jourdain March 16 (RIA Novosti) U.S. to Debate Jackson-Vanik after Russia Ratifies WTO Deal http://en.ria.ru/business/20120316/172196120.html
The U.S. Congress ..., tentatively in May or June.
Political capital won’t change the Jackson vanik fight
Chernitsa Polina Mar 1, 2012 Preserving “Jackson-Vanik” amendment disadvantageous for US http://english.ruvr.ru/2012_03_01/67240127/
US experts note that preserving the ...White House and the Capitol Hill.
Spending fights over the budget thump the link – even if nothing gets done
WILLIAM DOUGLAS AND DAVID LIGHTMAN Mar. 20, 2012 Republicans unwrap budget proposal http://www.kansascity.com/2012/03/20/3503573/republicans-unwrap-budget-proposal.html
Republicans in the House of Representatives ...allies in Congress on the other.
Elections 2AC
Europe’s economy thumps the link – it will determine the election
Montopoli 2-9
Brian Montopoli February 9, 2012 “Could Europe sink Obama's reelection bid?” http://www.cbsnews.com/2102-503544_162-57373555.html
Lurking an ocean away, however...mostly positive for the United States.
Winners win – pushing unpopular policies galvanizes public support for Obama
Aravosis 3-19
John Aravosis, 3/19/2012, “ New book: Obama admin embraced deficit reduction because they lost message war on deficit vs job creation” http://www.americablog.com/2012/03/new-book-obama-admin-embraced-deficit.html
This is something a number of ...lesson from this that outlasts November.
Economic shifts will determine the election
MARY PEREZ Mar. 15, 2012 Economy will drive 2012 election, pollster says http://www.sunherald.com/2012/03/15/3821416/economy-will-drive-2012-election.html
National pollster Scott Rasmussen said the ..., very slowly to good news.”
Aid Tradeoff DA
-Hurricane funding non-uniques
Omaha World Herald 9/1/11, “Grassley: Disaster fund won't die,” http://www.omaha.com/article/20110901/NEWS01/709019873/0
GLENWOOD, Iowa — Iowa Sen...departments or programs could be used.
The plan’s funds MUST come from the Economic Support Fund
POMED 11
POMED, Project on Middle East Democracy, “Summary and Highlights of FY11 Appropriations Act,” April 2011, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/FY11-Appropriations-Act-Summary.pdf
However, no additional funds are ...provided for Egypt under this heading.”
-Plan wouldn’t trade off with foreign aid – there’s no unified budget
Joseph S. Nye, Harvard government professor, 4/12/11, “The War on Soft Power,” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/12/the_war_on_soft_power?page=0,1
It sounds like common sense, ..., that progress may be halted.
-Middle East democracy requires new funding through Congress
Josh Rogin, Staff Writer, Foreign Policy, 9/12/11, “State Department opens Middle East Transitions office,” http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/12/state_department_opens_middle_east_transitions_office
In President Barack Obama's May 19 ...appropriations process to fund certain activities.
-Make fun of their impact
-New aid would requires a Congressional funding increase
The Jewish Daily Forward 5/17/11, “Congress Wielding Foreign Aid Budget in Effort to Influence Shape of New Middle East,” http://www.forward.com/articles/137826/
At the same time, the ...issue in Congress, he said.
