Contention One: The Status Quo
Obama pledged support for Libya, but we’re not supporting the transition in a key time for stability
Mercury News 11
(10/20/11 “Mercury News editorial: Libya is one more reason to maintain robust foreign aid budget” http://www.mercurynews.com/opinion/ci_19159396)
The death of Moammar Gadhafi on Thursday …
the people of Tunisia and Egypt, who rose up to oust dictators this year.
Libyans want training aid and we’re not providing it now
Washington Times 11
“(10/20/11 For post-Gaddafi Libya, ‘now the hard part begins’” http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/for-post-gaddafi-libya-now-the-hard-part-begins/2011/10/20/gIQAzSRg1L_story.html)
Consistent with the administration’s policy of …
Ms. Clinton. The answer should be “yes.”
Libya mission was recently extended until March
AP 12/2 “UN extends mission in Libya by three months” http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45530313/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/#.TvwgztQkLCI
UNITED NATIONS — The Security …
eliminate a proliferation of arms, especially portable surface-to-air missiles.
But they still must solicit funding and support
Better World Campaign 09
Better World Campaign 3/3/09, “United Nations Peacekeeping: Promoting Stability around the World,” http://www.betterworldcampaign.org/assets/pdf/briefing-book/united-nations-peacekeeping.pdf
Limited capacity: With every authorization of a …in places like Darfur and Haiti.
And there is no current plan for police training
New York Times 9/4
New York Times 9/4/11, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/04/world/middleeast/04libya.html
TRIPOLI, Libya — Libya’s interim …will agree to put down their weapons when told to do so.
Contention Two: Stability
Police training is key to prevent instability- it must happen quickly – Iraq and Afghanistan prove.
Dobbins and Wehrey, RAND, 11
James Dobbins, director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at the RAND Corporation, and Frederic Wehrey, policy analyst @ RAND, 8/23/2011 (http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68227/james-dobbins-and-frederic-wehrey/libyan-nation-building-after-qaddafi?page=show#)
Second, there are no Western forces on the …probably not participate heavily in such an effort.
Libyan instability causes right-wing resurgence in Europe
CSM 9/1/2011 (http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/us-tries-firm-economic-relationship-libya?page=full)
A politically stable Libya is particularly…, anti-immigrant political forces, she adds.
Right-wing backlash will end the EU
Macleans 11 (Kupchan = Georgetown IR professor)
Macleans (Canadian weekly news magazine) 8/19/11, http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/08/19/states-of-disunion/
The first signs of trouble for European integration …that are increasingly less relevant to the global economy.”
EU collapse causes nuclear war
Dunnis 11
James Dunnis, former Australian consul in East Timor who wrote the definitive book on East Timor’s history and UNTAET Expert on Crimes Against Humanity in East Timor, 8/16/11, “A financial storm gathers: one we can weather,” http://lawcrimepolitics.com/financial-storm-gathers-weather
Most Europeans will never forget their long history of…, indeed the end of civilisation, an outcome to be prevented at all cost
Crisis in Italy will kill the global economy
Zakaria 9/15
Fareed Zakaria, Editor of Time Magazine, PhD from Harvard, 9/15/11, http://www.fareedzakaria.com/home/Articles/Entries/2011/9/15_How_China_can_help_Europe_get_out_of_debt.html
The European crisis is no longer a European crisis. It …is too big to fail but might also be too big to bail.
Euro disintegration causes global economic collapse
The Economist 9/10
The Economist 9/10/11, http://www.economist.com/node/21528629
Barry Eichengreen, a monetary historian at the University of …bank runs in other peripheral countries.
Economic collapse causes global nuclear war
Merlini, Senior Fellow – Brookings, 11
[Cesare Merlini, nonresident senior fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe and chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Italian Institute for International Affairs (IAI) in Rome. He served as IAI president from 1979 to 2001. Until 2009, he also occupied the position of executive vice chairman of the Council for the United States and Italy, which he co-founded in 1983. His areas of expertise include transatlantic relations, European integration and nuclear non-proliferation, with particular focus on nuclear science and technology. A Post-Secular World? DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2011.571015 Article Requests: Order Reprints : Request Permissions Published in: journal Survival, Volume 53, Issue 2 April 2011 , pages 117 - 130 Publication Frequency: 6 issues per year Download PDF Download PDF (~357 KB) View Related Articles To cite this Article: Merlini, Cesare 'A Post-Secular World?', Survival, 53:2, 117 – 130]
Two neatly opposed scenarios for the future of …secular absolutes such as unbridled nationalism.
US expertise key to stability
William Bauer, Worked @ North African NGO, Middle East Studies Degree from Exeter, 8/21/2011 (http://www.policymic.com/article/show?id=1470)
So, what is next for Libya? The obvious answer is a …experience and guidance the U.S. has to offer.
Police training key to stop militia violence
The Telegraph 12/26/2011
“Former Libyan rebels offered military jobs”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8977796/Former-Libyan-rebels-offered-military-jobs.html
Although rebels met a deadline imposed by the …
of Tripoli's international airport from a powerful Zintan militia unit.
Aid decreases the probability of conflict
Savun, Political Science Professor, and Tirone 11
Burcu Savun, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Pittsburgh,, and Daniel C. Tirone is a Ph.D. Candidate in the Department of Political Science, University of Pittsburgh American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 55, No. 2, April 2011, Pp. 233–246 Foreign Aid, Democratization, and Civil Conflict: How Does Democracy Aid Affect Civil Conflict? http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00501.x/pdf
What is the substantive effect of democracy …is substantively as well as statistically significant.
Now is the key time for military reform to solve stability
Dersso 12/1/2011 (Solomon A. Dersso, Senior Researcher, African Conflict Prevention Programme, Addis Ababa Office)
(Institute for Security Studies. North Africa: Not Yet Time for Celebration in Libya. http://allafrica.com/stories/201112011366.html)
Many people inside and outside Libya …
to successfully lead the country to democratic elections.
Military legitimacy solves violence even if there’s no democratic transition
Barnett 11 (Carolyn Barnett is studying for an MA in Islamic Studies and MSc in Middle East Politics at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London.)
(November, 2011. In Libya, Focus on the Rule of Law First. http://www.policymic.com/articles/2472/in-libya-focus-on-the-rule-of-law-first)
In addition, the NTC faces the problem of …
scenario should be the top priority in Libya.
Contention Three: Leadership
The US is perceived as disengaging from the UN- this hinders multilateral leadership and cooperation
Brimmer 9-7
(Esther Brimmer, PHD in IR from Oxford, Assistant Secretary of State for International Organizations, Bureau of International Organization Affairs, Remarks at the U.S. Institute of Peace, Sustaining America's Global Leadership: U.S. Priorities at the United Nations, September 7, 2011, http://www.state.gov/p/io/rm/2011/171747.htm)
So amid these calls for U.S. retrenchment, our allies and …the United Nations is more essential than it has ever been.
Failure to provide assistance in Libya is causing tensions with the international community
Bendery 8/25
Jennifer Bendery, former correspondent for White House and Congressional leadership at Roll Call, 8/25/11, “Obama Unlikely To Sink Money Into Rebuilding Libya, Experts Say,” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/25/obama-rebuilding-libya_n_936852.html
WASHINGTON -- At a time when the …. NATO if the U.S. doesn't provide troops or financial assistance, he said.
Sustained commitment in Libya through the UN is key to effective international collaboration
POMED citing Brimmer, PhD in IR from Oxford, 9/10
( Project on Middle East Democracy, a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization dedicated to examining how genuine democracies can develop in the Middle East and how the U.S. can best support that process, 9/10/2011, http://pomed.org/blog/2011/09/pomed-notes-usip-sustaining-americas-global-leadership-us-priorities-at-the-un.html/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+POMED_blog+%28Project+on+Middle+East+Democracy+Blog%29&utm_content=Google+Reader)
With the context of global changes, …must be robust in order to be effective.
Libya is a key test case for multilateral institutions
Danin, CFR, 11
Robert Danin, Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies, CFR, 8/22/11, Council on Foreign Relations, “Post-Qaddafi Instability in Libya,” http://www.cfr.org/africa/post-qaddafi-instability-libya/p25693
But Libya is also important for a second …as well a Western oil interest in that country.
US commitment to post-conflict stability assistance in Libya boosts UN legitimacy
Patrick, CFR, 11
Stewart Patrick, Senior Fellow and Director, Program on International Institutions and Global Governance @ Council on Foreign Relations, 8/25/2011 (http://blogs.cfr.org/patrick/2011/08/25/un-peacekeeping-ready-for-libya/)
Peacekeeping is an excellent deal for U.S. taxpayers. For every …states to pick and choose among their own international obligations.
US credibility is key to an effective UN
Margon and Norris 11 (Sarah Margon, Associate Director of the Sustainable Security and Peacebuilding Initiative at the Center for American Progress, and John Norris, executive director of the Sustainable Security program at the Center for American Progress, April 2011, Withdrawing from the United Nations:A Misguided Assault, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/04/pdf/un_report.pdf)
The United Nations enhances our national security The United Nations …is true in the military campaign and in providing humanitarian assistance.
US leadership in the UN prevents war, climate change, and disease
Brimmer 9-7
(Esther Brimmer, Assistant Secretary, Bureau of International Organization Affairs, Remarks at the U.S. Institute of Peace, Sustaining America's Global Leadership: U.S. Priorities at the United Nations, September 7, 2011, http://www.state.gov/p/io/rm/2011/171747.htm)
Here in the United States, we face our own challenges. This Administration has strengthened our national security and restored U.S. global influence by engaging multilaterally. Yet there are still some here in Washington intent on forcing a U.S. retreat from …these and other threats, U.S. engagement at the United Nations works.
Collapse of the UN results in international anarchy and the end to civilization
Spencer 11
(Christopher Spencer, Former Senior Advisor International Organizations, Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade, 1-15-11, GLOBAL ISSUES AND UN RELEVANCE)
It is not about the United Nations, but the …understand the UN’s role and capacities.
Using intuitionalism prevents the worst forms of violence- the alternative to international cooperation is war
Shaw and Johnson (sociologist of war and global politics and holds the Chair of International Relations and Politics at the University of Sussex) 5
(Martin and Alan, Globality, War, Revolution: An Interview with Martin Shaw, Democratiya, 2005)
Alan Johnson: You argue for an alternative to war. …governments, to take the lead
in developing that.
Failure to slow the rate of warming results in extinction- environmental collapse
Atcheson 4
(John, Geologist at several federal agencies, Baltimore Sun, “Ticking time bomb”, 12-15, L/N)
The Arctic Council's recent report on the …policy be the mass extinction of life on Earth. We have to act now.
Second scenario- China
China is fearful of unilateral actions in Libya- it’s perceived as resource containment
Telegraph, 9/7/2011 (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8734312/Libya-China-warns-West-to-let-UN-lead-reconstruction.html)
Libya: China warns West to let UN lead reconstruction
China's top official newspaper warned has Western …the expanding strikes and urged compromise between his government and rebels.
Perceptions of resource containment cause war – more important than Taiwan.
Hatemi, Professor at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 2K7 (Peter, “Oil and Conflict in Sino-American Relations,” China Security, Summer, Volume 3, Number 3)
As China’s petroleum consumption increases …much more serious geo-strategic conflict.
Escalates to World War III
Amanda R. Bertana, Masters in Sociology @ Humboldt State University, May 2011 (“HEGEMONIC RIVALRY: CHINA’S SCRAMBLE FOR OIL” Master’s Thesis. http://humboldt-dspace.calstate.edu/xmlui/bitstream/handle/2148/718/Formatted%20thesis.pdf?sequence=2)
The question that arises from the ascension of …would result in tensions that may result in war.
Conflict is particularly likely in MENA
Alterman, ‘11
Jon B. Alterman, director and senior fellow of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, ‘11 (“The Vital Triangle,” n “China And The Persian Gulf: Implications for the United States,” Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, http://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/china-and-the-persian-gulf-0)
There is little question that the Middle East …
under which conflict might arise are not hard to imagine.
Missteps escalate to nuclear war- deterrence doesn’t check.
Johnson, 2001 (Chalmers, President of Japan Policy Research Institute, The Nation, 5/14, l/n)
China is another matter. No sane figure in …borders have virtually no deterrent effect.
Acting through the UN assuages Chinese fears- it gives the sign that the US is forgoing a “WESTERN” approach to Libya
La Stampa 11
La Stampa 8/30/11, BBC Monitoring Europe – Political, lexis
New York: The United States, France, and the United …pointing to "the uncertainty of the situation on the ground".
Acting through the UN shows that the US is forgoing unilateral intervention
Yan and Yangpeng 9-19
(Wang Yan and Zheng Yangpeng, China Daily, 9-19-11, 'Give UN big role' in Libya rebuilding)
BEIJING - China will be among those calling for the …to give way to other international organizations.
US leadership through the UN shows China its commitment to cooperation
Zhong Sheng, People’s Daily Online, 9/2/2011 (http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90780/91343/7587414.html)
It is a responsible measure to call on the …leading roles of the United Nations in post-war Libya.
Plan
The United States federal government should offer assistance to the United Nations for Libya for the development and enhancement of police forces.
Contention Four: Solvency
The US can earmark funds to the UN
Schaefer 10
Brett D. Schaefer, Fellow in International Regulatory Affairs at Heritage's Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom, 2/3/10, “Time to Rein in the U.N.'s Budget,” http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2010/02/time-to-rein-in-the-uns-budget
Extrabudgetary Resources. This obfuscation of the …Impact on Programme Delivery and Resource Mobilization Strategies," JIU/REP/2007/1, 2007, p. 6, at http://www.unjiu.org/data/reports /2007/en2007_01.pdf (January 20, 2010).
Democracy assistance can go through international institutions
Lappin 10
Richard Lappin, participant in democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE, and Carter Center, University of Belgrade political sciences visiting scholar, Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, 10, Volume 4 Issue 1, ―What we talk about when we talk about democracy assistance: the problem of definition in post-conflict approaches to democratization‖ http://www.cejiss.org/issue/2010-volume-4-issue-1/lappin, p.187-8, accessed 5-16-11
Democracy assistance can be most …groups, media groups and political parties.
