Contention One: Inherency
Aid to Yemen now – disads are non-unique.
Ken Gude, Managing Director of the National Security and International Policy Program at American Progress, 7/14/11
(Secretary Clinton Should Go to Yemen, )
While the United … in that country.
Power transition in Yemen is inevitable but US support for the existing regime destroys credibility and causes civil unrest.
King – former Fulbright Fellow – 2011.
(James R. King, specialist in Yemen and the broader Middle East, former Fulbright Fellow in Jordan, he holds an M.A. in Islamic Studies from Columbia University and conducted research on Yemen's Zaydi community through the American Institute for Yemeni Studies, “The end for President Salih in Yemen,” 03/21/11. The Hill’s Congress Blog. http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/151101-the-end-for-president-salih-in-yemen. CR)
The regime of Yemeni … into military confrontation.
The regime’s lost all public support.
Yemen Times, 2011. (Qais Ghanem, Creator and Host, Dialogue with Diversity Radio Show, “Good news from Yemen - at last!” August 25, 2011. Yemen Times. Lexis. CR)
The revolution of the Yemeni… door with utter panic.
Improved organizational ability for the youth movement is key to prevent conservative Muslim parties from coopting the revolution.
Al Jazeera, 6/26/11
Yemen’s Splintered Opposition,
Sharafi, along with other … drop of blood."
Contention Two: Al Qaeda
They’re still a threat.
Seth G Jones, senior political scientist at RAND, 5/24/11
(The Future of Al Qa’ida Before the Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation, andUnited States House of Representatives, )
The death of Osama … al Shabaab (Somalia).
Yemen is the crucial hub – it’s been the base of all major Al Qaeda operations since 2001.
Frank Cilluffo, director of the homeland security policy institute at the George Washington University and former Special Assistant to the President for Homeland Security, and Clinton Watts, consultant at PA Consulting Group and a Senior Fellow at the Homeland Security Policy Institute. He is a former U.S. Army Officer and former Special Agent with the FBI, 6/24/2011
(Yemen & Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Exploiting a Window of Counterterrorism Opportunity, )
This week’s escape of… international terrorism capability.
Current posture means post-Saleh government prevents counter-terror operations.
Jeremey Scahill, fellow at the Nation Institute and award winning investigative journalist, 3/30/11 (The Dangerous US Game in Yemen, )
Without a guarantee that a successor government will grant US forces such access, peaceful protesters being gunned down will not be the top priority. “The feckless US response is highlighting how shortsighted our policy is there,” says Joshua Foust, a fellow at the … those very programs.”
US support for the new Yemeni government is key to legitimize counter-terror operations.
Frank Cilluffo, director of the homeland security policy institute at the George Washington University and former Special Assistant to the President for Homeland Security, and Clinton Watts, consultant at PA Consulting Group and a Senior Fellow at the Homeland Security Policy Institute. He is a former U.S. Army Officer and former Special Agent with the FBI, 6/24/2011
(Yemen & Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Exploiting a Window of Counterterrorism Opportunity, )
Drones and SOF: Our Best … inevitable attack from AQAP.
But drones are not effective absent government support and intelligence coordination.
Gude and Sofer – National Security and International Policy Program – 11 (Ken Gude, Managing Director of the National Security and International Policy Program; Ken Sofer, Special Assistant with the National Security and International Policy team at American Progress, "Misfiring at Al Qaeda in Yemen," Center for American Progress, July 14, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/06/yemen_drones)
The Wall Street Journal and … already serious problem worse.
Supporting the youth is critical to cooperation post-revolution.
Wasim Alquershi, former president of the Yemeni Student Union and member of the organizational committee of the people’s youth revolution in Yemen, 5/12/11 (The Youth will win in Yemen, )
However, the youth … when that day comes.
Al Qaeda will attack the al-Mandab Strait – targeting oil and key trade routes.
Barak Bafri, independent analyst who has worked with various groups including ABC and Jane’s, January 2010
(Yemen on the Brink? , 18)
Al Qaeda may also … and the Shabab.]
The straight is key to important maritime trade routes, oil transportation of all the Gulf countries, checking Iranian expansionism, troop deployments and controls a THIRD of all world trade.
UPI, 2010. (“Al-Qaida threatens to close key oil artery,” Feb. 24, 2010. UPI. http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2010/02/24/Al-Qaida-threatens-to-close-key-oil-artery/UPI-27151267027462/#ixzz1XPTj8CWP. CR)
SANAA, Yemen, Feb. 24 (UPI) -- Amid … secure allies and markets.
No substitutes – the Bab el-Mandeb is a key oil chokepoint – instability causes oil shocks.
Roman et. al, 2008.
(Alejandra Roman, Editorial Assistant, The Encyclopedia of Earth. B.A. in Environmental Policy and Analysis and Hispanic Language and Literature from Boston U; Cutler J. Cleveland, founding Editor-in-Chief of the Encyclopedia of Earth. Professor in the Department of Geography and Environment at Boston University and Senior Fellow at the National Council for Science and the Environment in Washington D.C.; Tom Lawrence, Ph.D, P.E. and LEED-AP, is a Public Service Associate with the , and has over 25 years of professional experience in engineering and environmentally related fields. "Bab el-Mandeb". Encyclopedia of Earth. September 12, 2008. . CR)
The Bab el-Mandeb … on world oil prices.
Collapses all major countries’ economies.
Jones, 2011.
(Bryony Jones, “Roubini: Oil, energy, food prices a risk to stability,” CNN. July 16 2011. http://edition.cnn.com/2011/BUSINESS/01/26/switzerland.roubini.prices/index.html. CR)
(CNN) -- Rapidly rising oil… the tunnel."
Economic collapse causes global nuclear war.
Merlini, Senior Fellow – Brookings, 11 [Cesare Merlini, nonresident senior fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe and chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Italian Institute for International Affairs (IAI) in Rome. He served as IAI president from 1979 to 2001. Until 2009, he also occupied the position of executive vice chairman of the Council for the United States and Italy, which he co-founded in 1983. His areas of expertise include transatlantic relations, European integration and nuclear non-proliferation, with particular focus on nuclear science and technology. A Post-Secular World? DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2011.571015 Article Requests: Order Reprints : Request Permissions Published in: journal Survival, Volume 53, Issue 2 April 2011 , pages 117 - 130 Publication Frequency: 6 issues per year Download PDF Download PDF (~357 KB) View Related Articles To cite this Article: Merlini, Cesare 'A Post-Secular World?', Survival, 53:2, 117 – 130]
Two neatly opposed scenarios … as unbridled nationalism.
Contention Three: Stability
Yemen is on the brink of collapse.
Shakdam, 2011.
(Catherine Shakdam, “Yemen, a country on the brink of collapse,” Yemen Times. May 23, 2011. http://www.yementimes.com/defaultdet.aspx?SUB_ID=36124. CR)
While anti-government protesters … deepest economic depression yet.
Yemeni democracy solves multiple pressures for civil war
Mark Katz, professor of government at George Mason University, 3/23/2011
(Yemeni President Saleh Should Go Now, )
Responding to mounting demands … limited in Yemen.
An organized political strategy to coordinate the youth movement is critical to prevent Yemeni civil war.
The National, 2011. (The National, 4/25/11. National Editorial. . CR)
Protesters have for … a lasting solution.
Instability spreads to Saudi Arabia and the whole middle east.
Salmoni et. al, 2010. (Barak A. Salmoni, Bryce Loidolt, Madeleine Wells, "Regime and Periphery in Northern Yemen," RAND Corporation, National Defense Research Institute. April 28, http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG962.html)
Over the past three … the Qatar process ended.
Armed refugees collapse the House of Saud.
Haykel – Professor of Near Eastern Studies – 11
(Bernard, Professor of Near Eastern studies at Princeton, "Saudi Arabia's policy of stability at all costs may backfire," The Daily Star, August 19, http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Commentary/2011/Aug-19/Saudi-Arabias-policy-of-stability-at-all-costs-may-backfire.ashx#axzz1VTwlaPFP)
Neighboring Yemen is a … the regime.
Yemeni collapse causes domino effect of all regional crisis to escalate – Saudi instability, water wars, Saudi-Iranian proxy wars.
David Hughes, previously worked for NATO’s Policy Planning Unit, 7/10/10
(Yemens Problems are the Region’s Problems, )
For domestic security, the … detainees were from Yemen.
Nuclear Extinction—checks against escalation don’t apply to the middle east
Russell – senior lecturer at the Naval Postgraduate School – 9
(James Russell, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Nava Postgraduate School, Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prosepects for Nuclear War and Escalation in the Middle East, in collaboration with the Atomic Energy Commission.)
Strategic stability in … for the entire world.
Plan
The United States federal government should provide the Yemeni anti-government protest movement political party support.
Contention Four: Solvency
International assistance is critical to the youth movement
Rafat Al-Akhali, youth activist and the co-founder of Resonate! Yemen initiative. that aims to bring the voices and ideas of young Yemenis to Yemen’s public policy discourse, 7/7/11
(Youth in Post Revolution Yemen A View From the Ground, )
Given these realities, there are several … ‘eletioneering’ to electioneering
