1nc
A. democracy assistance has the purpose of promoting democratization
Huber 8 Daniela Huber, Department of International Relations, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel
Mediterranean Politics, Vol. 13, No. 1, 43–62, March 2008 Democracy Assistance in the Middle East and North Africa: A Comparison of US and EU Policies http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/13629390701864836
The American researcher Thomas Carothers …DA is more than electoral assistance.
B) Violation – the plan does not increase democratic contestation. Yemen could be just as authoritarian after the plan as before.
Standards
A) limits
Burnell 2K Peter Burnell, prof of politics, Univ of Warwick UK 2000
Democracy Assistance: international cooperation for democratization, Peter Burnell ed p 11-12
In the largest sense then democracy promotion …
provides conflicting answers to questions such as these.
B) Ground they spike all of our disad links that are predicated off of increasing democracy in the country or the perception thereof.
C) Extra t – Even if some of their plan increases democratization, increasing water aid definitely doesn’t. This means they unlimit the topic as they could add anything to the plan and call it topical.
CP
Text: The European Union should provide an ample and comprehensive assistance package to Yemen for building civil society water user groups and requisite governance capacity at the local and national level for best utilizing water user groups.
EU democracy assistance solves best – prefer our evidence it’s comparative.
Youngs, 01 (Richard, Senior Research Fellow at the Norwegian Institute for International Relations, DEMOCRACY PROMOTION: THE CASE OF EUROPEAN UNION STRATEGY. CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES WORKING DOCUMENT NO. 167. www.ceps.eu/ceps/download/759)ZDM
The foregoing account demonstrates that …improving the efficiency of policy delivery.
Saudi Relations
Relations high – security agreements and not supporting democracy
Wall Street Journal 11 (By BILL SPINDLE and MARGARET COKER. “The New Cold War”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704116404576262744106483816.html)
And recently the U.S. has joined in warning Iran after … to shore up the relationship with Riyadh.
US opposition to Yemen monarchy destroys Saudi relations
Althaibani 11 (Raja Althaibani is a college student, a community organizer, media stringer, and a photographer, and she’s only 24. She is currently covering the revolution in Yemen working as a photojournalist and stringer for media outlets like CNN and MSNBC and has been a frequent guest on NPR’s The Takeaway and many other global radio programs. You can also find her work and interviews through other media outlets like the BBC. She is currently pursuing her CUNY BA in Human Rights and International Development)
(Yemen’s Saudi Dilemma. 6/7/11 http://rajaalthaibani.wordpress.com/2011/08/17/yemen%E2%80%99s-saudi-dilemma/)
Saudi Arabia has much at stake when it comes to …
to a corrupt regime. This includes us reconsidering and reevaluating our current allies.
This change undermines the oil-for security arrangement and destroys relations
Financial Times 11 (6/16/2011, Anna Fifield)
(“Arab spring tests US-Saudi relationship” http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4082dc70-984d-11e0-ae45-00144feab49a.html#axzz1UIAMR876)
Still, Washington and Riyadh could
recognised the state of Israel in 1948.
Weakening relations with Saudi Arabia are making Saudi Arabia consider nuclear weapons
The Guardian 03, 9/18/03. “Saudis consider nuclear bomb,” http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2003/sep/18/nuclear.saudiarabia
[2nd wave card]
Until now, the assumption in …reliance on the US nuclear umbrella.
Collapses the NPT – regional arms racing
McDowell ‘3 (Steven R.; Lieutenant – U.S. Navy) Naval Postgraduate Thesis “Is Saudi Arabia A Nuclear Threat?” November http://www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/research/theses/McDowell03.pdf wbw
Saudi Arabia may become one of the next … by initiating a new arms race in the region.
Proliferation triggers a nuclear terrorist strike and accidental nuclear war.
Schultz et al 07 (George P. Shultz, a distinguished fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford, was secretary of state from 1982 to 1989. William J, Perry, secretary of defense from 1994 to 1997. Henry, Kissinger, chairman of Kissinger Associates, was secretary of state from 1973 to 1977. Sam, Nunn is former chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee. A WORLD FREE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS. The Wall Street Journal. http://www.fcnl.org/issues/item.php?item_id=2252&issue_id=54)ZDM
Nuclear weapons were essential to maintaining international security ….be as fortunate in the next 50 years as we were during the Cold War?
Politics
China bashing won’t pass now because of Obama and Boehner
Cornwell 10-12
Susan Cornwell Oct 12, 2011 “Analysis: Boehner stands firm against China currency bill” Reuters http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/12/us-china-usa-yuan-idUSTRE79B07M20111012
A controversial U.S. bill aimed at forcing China …"Even so, I suspect pressure for action will build up," Reinsch added.
Expansion of aid programs is unpopular
Rogin 11 [Josh Rogin is a staff writer at Foreign Policy and writes The Cable blog for ForeignPolicy.com. Josh, The Cable, This Fight Ain't Over AUGUST 4, 2011 http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/04/this_fight_aint_over?page=full]
Everyone agrees that the foreign … into the 2012 presidential season.
Their political capital is key
Beattie 10-4
Alan Beattie October 4, 2011 “US currency bill drama belies grind ahead” FT http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ec234e82-eebc-11e0-959a-00144feab49a.html#axzz1bvqEGH9m
So, are they serious? Monday’s …Republican presidential nomination, has supported it.
Starts a trade war and kills global growth
Carmosky 9-8
Janet Carmosky, Contributor 9/08/2011 “China Bashing Season Officially Kicks Off” Forbes http://www.forbes.com/sites/janetcarmosky/2011/09/08/china-bashing-season-officially-kicks-off/
In the past 24 hours both Mitt …of having a clear enemy (that isn’t us) be worth it?
Most likely scenario for military conflict
Landy 7
Ben Landy, Director of Research and Strategy at the Atlantic Media Company, publisher of the Atlantic Monthly, National Journal, and Government Executive magazines, April 3, 2007, http://chinaredux.com/2007/04/03/protectionism-and-war/#comments,)
The greatest threat for the 21st century is …increases in military budgets and anti-satellite tests.
Extinction
Strait Times 2K
[“No one gains in war over Taiwan,” June 25 2000, L/N]
THE high-intensity scenario postulates a cross-strait war escalating into a …it cannot be ruled out entirely, for China puts sovereignty above everything else.
K
The threat of regional instability is not self-evident but seeped in a racist description of the world – this ideological approach genocide and unending war.
Batur 7 [Pinar, PhD @ UT-Austin – Prof. of Scociology @ Vassar, The Heart of Violence: Global Racism, War, and Genocide,” in Handbook of the The Soiology of Racial and Ethnic Relations, eds. Vera and Feagin, p. 441-443]
War and genocide are horrid, and taking them for granted is …cereal. Two examples of this “geography of hunger and exploitation” are Iraq and New Orleans.
The alternative – Reject the aff’s orientalist assumptions in favor of a revolutionary pedagogy.
Only a total rejection of orientalism can solve.
Sheehi (Associate Professor and Arabic Program Director @ University of South Carolina) 11
(Stephen, The Social Relations of Islamophobia and the Role of The Academic, May 01 2011, http://www.jadaliyya.com/pages/TME1/1413/the-social-relations-of-islamophobia-and-the-role-)
These revolutions were one more method of …can serve change both home and abroad.
View their truth claims and evidence with extreme skepticism – Western scholarship on the Arabic world suffers from a myopic focus on short-termism – ensures serial policy failure.
Baroud 11 [Ramzy, journalist, author, editor and former Al-Jazeera producer, Ramzy Baroud taught Mass Communication at Australia's Curtin University of Technology, and is Editor-in-Chief of the Palestine Chronicle. Arab Awakening and Western Media: Time for a New Revolutionary Discourse by Ramzy Baroud / July 28th, 2011 http://dissidentvoice.org/2011/07/arab-awakening-and-western-media-time-for-a-new-revolutionary-discourse/]
Western media and think-tanks have long \...that will yield no concrete answers, and more misguided policies.
1NC Water
1. Every life is an end—the only ethical option is to maximize the number saved.
Cummisky 96
(David, professor of philosophy at Bates, Kantian Consequentialism, p. 130-131)
Finally, even if one grants that saving two persons ….or even how it conflicts with the conclusion that the more persons with dignity who are saved, the better.
1NC Leadership
Elections will fail – no incentive to compromise.
Boucek, Carnegie, 10/27 [Christopher, associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program where his research focuses on security challenges in the Arabian Peninsula and Northern Africa Yemen After Saleh’s Return and Awlaki’s Exit Christopher Boucek Q&A, October 27, 2011 http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2011/10/27/yemen%2Dafter%2Dsaleh%2Ds%2Dreturn%2Dand%2Dawlaki%2Ds%2Dexit/68w]
Will President Ali Abdullah Saleh step …that happens, there is little likelihood of progress.
Iran perceives US democracy assistance as soft warfare
Allen 11 Michael Allen, editor Democracy Digest May 17, 2011 Regime insecurity drives Iran’s repression and ‘soft war’ obsessions, says new report http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/05/regime-insecurity-drives-irans-repression-and-soft-war-obsessions-says-new-report/
The Islamic Republic’s obsession with…Obama’s National Security Adviser.
Yemen is important to Iran’s regional position
Barzegar 11 Kayhan Barzegar, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School April 20, 2011
Current Affiliation: Faculty Member, Department of International Relations, Science and Research University, Tehran, Iran
Former Associate, Project on Managing the Atom/International Security Program, 2010–2011; Former Research Fellow, Project on Managing the Atom/international Security Program, 2007–2010 "Iran's Interests and Values and the 'Arab Spring'"
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/20954/irans_interests_and_values_and_the_arab_spring.html
The developments in Tunisia and …to support moderate and negotiated solutions.
Containment will cause proxy wars
Lynch 11 Marc Lynch is a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, an Associate Professor
of Political Science and Director of the Middle East Studies Program at George Washington University, and an editor for the Middle East Channel for ForeignPolicy.com. June 2011 Upheaval: U.S. Policy Toward Iran in a Changing Middle East
http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Upheaval_Lynch_2.pdf
Containment by its nature encourages …Abdullah warning of a “Shi’a Crescent” threatening the Sunni Arab world.
1NC Coin
1. Al Qaeda is incapable of operations, politically obsolete, and being dealt significant blows.
Fawaz Gerges, director of the Middle East Center at the London School of Economics, 5/2/11
(Al-Qaeda’s existential crisis, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/al-qaedas-existential-crisis/2011/05/02/AFbmedaF_story.html)
Yet on Sunday evening, Osama bin Laden — the embodiment of what “terrorist” has come to mean to Americans and other Westerners, the symbol of everything antithetical to Western values — was killed by U.S. forces. While bin Laden’s …a miracle to revive al-Qaeda Central.
No AQAP attacks in the West.
Boucek, Carnegie, 10/27 [Christopher, associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program where his research focuses on security challenges in the Arabian Peninsula and Northern Africa Yemen After Saleh’s Return and Awlaki’s Exit Christopher Boucek Q&A, October 27, 2011 http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2011/10/27/yemen%2Dafter%2Dsaleh%2Ds%2Dreturn%2Dand%2Dawlaki%2Ds%2Dexit/68w]
AQAP is still an extremely dangerous organization—..with the deaths of Awlaki and Khan.
3) No Retalliation.
Jenkins-Smith and Herron 05 (Hank, Professor of Public Policy at the George H. W. Bush School of Government and Public Service, and Kerry, Research Scientist and Adjunct Professor at the George H. W. Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University, Review of Policy Research, September, 22(5), p.613-617)ZDM
Our final dependent variable deals with the preferred level of certainty of a country’s culpability in terrorist acts before employing United States military force to retaliate or preempt future acts of terrorism (Q98). As shown in Table 7, panel members preferred high levels of certainty in both measurement periods. On a scale from zero to ten, where zero meant not at all certain, and ten meant completely certain, mean certainty …in military retaliation moderated significantly over the following year.
No oil shocks – newest research.
Kahn 11 [Jeremy Kahn, Boston Globe, Crude reality Will a Middle Eastern oil disruption crush the economy? New research suggests the answer is no -- and that a major tenet of American foreign policy may be fundamentally wrong. By February 13, 2011 http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2011/02/13/crude_reality/]
Economists have a term for this …adept at filling the gap.
The world has enormous spare capacity – reserve stocks minimize disruption.
Gholz and Press 8/20/08 [Associate Professor @ Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs @ UT Austin, Associate Professor of Government @ Dartmouth, Eugene & Daryl G., New York Times, “All the Oil We Need” http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/21/opinion/21press.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&_r%202]
While oil prices have declined somewhat of late… go a long way to minimizing panic.
Shocks have zero effect on the economy.
Taylor and Van Doren 07, senior fellows at the Cato Institute, October 17 2007 (Jerry and Peter, “No need to fear oil shocks,” National Post, lexis)
The lesson to be derived from this is pretty clear: …of government programs.
1NC Econ – A2: Bearden
Disregard Bearden – he’s an unqualified hack writing about zero point energy on his website.
Gardner 7 [Martin, author of more than seventy books, most recently The Jinn from Hyperspace. His next, When You Were a Tadpole and I was a Fish, and Other Speculations About This and That, is forthcoming from Hill and Wang in October 2009, ‘Dr.’ Bearden’s Vacuum Energy, The Skeptical Inquirer Volume 31.1, January / February 2007 http://www.csicop.org/si/show/dr._bearden_vacuum_energy/]
“Dr.” Bearden is fond of …/Albert Wainwright, calls himself the college “registrant.”
And he concedes collapse is inevitable.
Bearden 2K [Tom, “The Unnecessary Energy Crisis”. 2000, avail: www.seaspower.com]
The 2003 date appears to be the critical .. almost certainly occur, even with the solutions in hand.
block
Link – Iran – “Martyr State”
Duss 11 [Matthew Duss is a Policy Analyst at the Center for American Progress and the Director of Middle East Progress at the Center. The martyr state myth August 24, 2011 http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/23/the_martyr_state_myth]
In the Republican presidential primary debate in Ames, …detracts from our ability to develop policies to effectively meet that challenge.
Terrorist rhetoric causes genocidal violence and turns case
Kapitan and Schulte 2
(Tomis and Erich, Thomas – Prof of Philosophy @ N Illionois U, and Erich – , Journal of Political and Military Sociology Vol. 30 Iss. 1, 2002, pp. 172+, Questia) JPG
The 'terrorist' rhetoric typified in …us now examine evidence for these points.
Their evidence is incestuous fearmongering
Spencer and Hulsse 8
(Alexander and Rainer, both IR professors @ Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, Security Dialogue, Vol. 39, No. 6 pp. 571-592, 2008) JPG
In any case, most of what has been …not a description but an interpretation of Al-Qaeda.
REVERSE ORIENTALISM CLAIM PRESUMES THE IMPERIAL POSITION. THE ESSENTIAUSMS AND CATEGORIES OF ORIENTALISM ARE ROOTED IN A SPECIFIC IMPERIAL HISTORY, NOT JUST ANY CULTURAL OBSERVATION.
Nadia Abu El-Hai. Deprt of Anthrophology @ Barnard, ^5 [American Ehtnologist 32.4, "Edward Said and the political present," p. 540]
The history of empire and the fallacy of…, for example, Ian Buruma and Avishai Margalit's recent book Occiden- talism (2004).
OCCIDENTALISM IGNORES THE SPECIFIC HISTORY OF POWER THAT LOADS THE DICE IN FAVOR OF WESTERN CONCEPTIONS OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS THEORY.
Nadia Abu El-Hai. Deprt of Anthrophology @ Barnard, ^5 [American Ehtnologist 32.4, "Edward Said and the political present," p. 543]
Their argument is ahistorical and …to Said's analysis, historical and political alike.
2) Our kritik doesn’t eliminate the capacity for state action – just constituting the state through the logic of Orientalism.
Burke 7 [Anthony, Senior Lecturer @ School of Politics & IR @ Univ. of New South Wales, Beyond Security, Ethics and Violence, p. 81]
Whatever the power of its insight, the absolutist tendency of Foucault's …and institutions that can extend and preserve such relationships.
Link
Saudis hate Yemeni democracy –fear spillover
Terrill 11 (W. Andrew Terrill, professor of national security affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute, January 2011)
(The Conflict in Yemen and US National Security, www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB1040.pdf)
Saudi Arabia is Yemen’s most important …other country. It dwarfs the amounts provided by the United States.10
Challenging the Saudis on Yemen angers them
Terrill 11 (W. Andrew Terrill, professor of national security affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute, January 2011)
(The Conflict in Yemen and US National Security, www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB1040.pdf)
A key country that must be considered in …
hinder U.S. objectives for that country.
Yemen Uniqueness
US not pressing Saudis now – Yemen
Araabi 11(Samer Araabi is contributor to a number of prominent foreign policy sites including the Institute for Policy Studies, Foreign Policy in Focus, the Balkans Project, and the Arab American Institute. Samer recently graduated from the London School of Economics with an MSc in Conflict Studies, and holds dual bachelor's degrees in Political Theory and Economics.)
(8/23/11. “The Saudi Counter-Revolution” http://rightweb.irc-online.org/articles/display/the_saudi_counter_revolution)
The influence and power of the ..
government and the protestors to accept Saudi mediation.[20]
1. Cross apply from T they’re counterrevolutionary by supporting local governments outside of Saleh– that’s the key internal link
Mutter 11 (Paul Mutter is a graduate student at the Arthur L. Carter Journalism Institute at NYU and a contributor to Foreign Policy In Focus)
(6/29 FPIF. Saudi Arabia: Rolling Back the Arab Spring. http://www.fpif.org/articles/saudi_arabia_rolling_back_the_arab_spring)
Washington has given its blessings to …
funded anti-communist propaganda across the Muslim world for decades.
AT: Oil k2 relats
Oil’s not key to relations—cold war history solidified alliance
Bronson 06 (Rachel Bronson, Former Adjunct Senior Fellow for Middle East Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations)
(May 21st 2006 http://www.cfr.org/publication/10728/ )
There’s more to it than that. …
contributed to the rise of radical Islamic movements.
Impact – Iran
Containing/Countering Iran
World Tribune 10
(10/22/10 Centcom report on enhanced U.S.-Saudi relations cites threat of a nuclear-armed Iran.
http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2010/ss_military1045_10_22.asp
Centcom has been training, equipping and …
has continued to be a valuable partner in preserving stability in the region."
Stability
Saudi’s Oil retaliation draws in other countries into ME war –turns stability
Radio Free Europe 10/24/11
(Hossein. Aryan. How Might Saudi Arabia Retaliate Against Iran For Alleged Plot? http://www.rferl.org/content/what_could_saudis_due_to_retaliate_against_iran/24369526.html)
Some four months ago, according to "Newsweek," …
the eight-year war between Iran and Iraq.
Impact – Terrorism
Key to cooperate over terrorism
Smith 10 (James B. Smith was sworn in on September 16, 2009, as the U.S. Ambassador to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Ambassador Smith was a distinguished graduate of the United States Air Force Academy’s Class of 1974 and received the Richard I. Bong award as the Outstanding Cadet in Military History. He received his Masters in History from Indiana University in 1975, and is also a distinguished graduate from the Naval War College, the Air Command and Staff College and the National War College.)
(10/25/110 Transcript by Ryan&Associates. AUSPC Keynote- “Saudi-US Relations: Ambassador Smith” http://www.susris.com/2010/10/25/auspc-keynote-saudi-us-relations-ambassador-smith/)
The question about Al Qaeda comes up, I think and I’m actually …problems that have military solutions.
1NC Coin
1. Al Qaeda is incapable of operations, politically obsolete, and being dealt significant blows.
Fawaz Gerges, director of the Middle East Center at the London School of Economics, 5/2/11
(Al-Qaeda’s existential crisis, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/al-qaedas-existential-crisis/2011/05/02/AFbmedaF_story.html)
Yet on Sunday evening, Osama bin Laden — the embodiment of what “…
would take a miracle to revive al-Qaeda Central.
yes
[already]No AQAP attacks in the West.
Boucek, Carnegie, 10/27 [Christopher, associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program where his research focuses on security challenges in the Arabian Peninsula and Northern Africa Yemen After Saleh’s Return and Awlaki’s Exit Christopher Boucek Q&A, October 27, 2011 http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2011/10/27/yemen%2Dafter%2Dsaleh%2Ds%2Dreturn%2Dand%2Dawlaki%2Ds%2Dexit/68w]
AQAP is still an extremely dangerous organization—…with the deaths of Awlaki and Khan.
Not all attacks perceived as nuclear-underwear bomber proves
3) No Retalliation.
Jenkins-Smith and Herron 05 (Hank, Professor of Public Policy at the George H. W. Bush School of Government and Public Service, and Kerry, Research Scientist and Adjunct Professor at the George H. W. Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University, Review of Policy Research, September, 22(5), p.613-617)ZDM
Our final dependent variable deals with the preferred level of certainty of a country’s culpability in terrorist acts before employing United States military force to retaliate or preempt future acts of terrorism (Q98). As shown in Table 7, panel members preferred high levels of certainty in both measurement periods. On a scale from zero to ten, where zero meant not at all certain, and ten meant completely certain, …initial willingness to engage in military retaliation moderated significantly over the following year.
4) No risk of nuclear terrorism
John Mueller, professor of political science at Ohio State University, 8/5/11
(The Truth About Al Qaeda, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/05/the-truth-about-al-qaeda/)
As a misguided Turkish proverb holds, …
(and counting) of pronouncements that WMD terrorism is the wave of the future. No elephants there, either.
Stabilization Turn
Stabilizing Yemen raises expectations causing Al Qaeda coup and supports a system that breeds conflict
Sarah Phillips, lecturer in international politics at Sydney University, Feb-March 2011
(Al Qaeda and the Struggle for Yemen, Survival 53:1, http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a932871540)
However, the rapid shift to a single resource-…, or possibly the will, to deliver.
Stabilizing the old regime causes civil war that will engulf the region
Tawakkol Karman, a leader of Yemen’s democracy movement and founder of Women Journalists without Chains, 6/18/11
(Yemen’s Unfinished Revolution, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/19/opinion/19karman.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1)
We ask our neighbors in Saudi Arabia to …for Saudi Arabia as well as for Yemen.
Instablity key to fight al Qaeda.
Al-Haj, 10/1. (AHMED AL-HAJ 10/1/11. “Yemen: Al Qaeda Remains Threat After Anwar Al-Awlaki Assassination,” Huffington Post. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/01/yemen-al-qaeda_n_990651.html. CR)
Ironically, the turmoil appears in one …constructor of explosives for such attacks.
