Contention One: Stability

Egypt needs assistance for economic reform – governments have pledged support but it hasn’t arrived

Jerusalem Post 9/13/11, lexis

The latest package of aid and ...further drag, according to Fitch.

Corruption will cause cycles of instability in Egypt – reform is key

May 12-27

(Theodore May, Editor's Note: Theodore May is an analyst at Ergo, a global intelligence and advisory firm with extensive experience in Middle Eastern political and economic analysis and forecasting. He is the author of "Backpacking to Babylon," which will be released in the summer of 2012. Follow Ergo on Twitter, CNN special with Zakaria, Egypt’s sinking economy belongs to the Islamists now, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/27/egypts-sinking-economy-belongs-to-the-islamists-now/)

The economic challenges facing Egypt are ...one that ejected Mubarak from office.

Economics is the largest contributor to instability

Allen 11

Michael Allen, Special Assistant for Government Relations and Public Affairs at the National Endowment for Democracy and former lecturing faculty of faculty of universities in London and Manchester, and Cranfield School of Management, “Deteriorating economy a greater threat than military to Egypt’s transition,” 9/16/11, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/09/deteriorating-economy-a-greater-threat-than-military-to-egypts-transition/

“We hope the law will ...lack of democracy or political reform (19%).

Economic crisis in Egypt produces a global double-dip recession

Michael Schuman, M.A. in International Affairs from Columbia, has corresponded for Forbes, TIME, and WSJ, 2/2/2011 (http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/02/02/does-the-turmoil-in-egypt-threaten-the-global-recovery/#ixzz1TT6k4O6d)

At first glance, the upheaval ...be just such an unwelcome surprise.

Economic collapse causes global nuclear war

Merlini, Senior Fellow – Brookings, 11

[Cesare Merlini, nonresident senior fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe and chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Italian Institute for International Affairs (IAI) in Rome. He served as IAI president from 1979 to 2001. Until 2009, he also occupied the position of executive vice chairman of the Council for the United States and Italy, which he co-founded in 1983. His areas of expertise include transatlantic relations, European integration and nuclear non-proliferation, with particular focus on nuclear science and technology. A Post-Secular World?  DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2011.571015 Article Requests: Order Reprints : Request Permissions Published in: journal Survival, Volume 53, Issue 2 April 2011 , pages 117 - 130 Publication Frequency: 6 issues per year  Download PDF Download PDF (~357 KB)     View Related Articles  To cite this Article: Merlini, Cesare 'A Post-Secular World?', Survival, 53:2, 117 – 130]

Two neatly opposed scenarios for the ...secular absolutes such as unbridled nationalism.

Egyptian instability causes wildfire prolif throughout the Middle East

Henry Sokolski, executive director of The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center and former Deputy for Nonproliferation Policy in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, 2/8/11, “The New Republic: Revolts Stir Up Nuclear Sentiment,” The New Republic (also published by NPR), http://www.npr.org/2011/02/08/133588036/the-new-republic-revolts-could-fuel-nuclear-desires

Even more dangerously, unlike Iraq...U.S. nuclear cooperation.

Egypt is the cornerstone of global nonproliferation

Joe Cirincione, former director for non-proliferation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, professor of foreign service at Georgetown, 2/13/11, “Egypt's Nuclear Dimension,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/joe-cirincione/egypts-nuclear-dimension_b_822588.html [NOTE: Brackets in original – not added]

As a free Egypt transforms itself...close ties with the United States.

Proliferation means small conflicts go nuclear

Sokolski 9, executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, serves on the U.S. congressional Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism, ‘9 (Henry, Avoiding a Nuclear Crowd, Policy Review June & July, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/46390537.html)

At a minimum, such developments ...their critics, would ever want.

Anti-corruption is key to increase investment and stabilize the economy

Sarif 11-11

(Ibrahim Saif, resident scholar at the Carnegie Middle East Center. An economist specializing in the political economy of the Middle East, November 2011, CHALLENGES OF EGYPT’S ECONOMIC TRANSITION)

Reassure the Private Sector About Its ...investing in Egypt therefore remains high.

Assistance for reform spurs foreign investment and stabilizes Egypt

The Daily News Egypt 7/26/11, http://thedailynewsegypt.com/economy/egypt-must-foster-private-investment-report-suggests.html

Egyptians would also benefit from technical ...turbulent region,” the report said.

Only US leadership can attract US investment

Moran 8

(Theodore Moran is a nonresident fellow at the Center for Global Development, November 2008, THE WHITE HOUSE AND THE WORLD A Global Development Agenda for the Next U.S. President, http://www.social-sciences-and-humanities.com/PDF/White_House_and_the_World.pdf#page=134)

FDI in extractive industries exemplifies this ...local nongovernmental organizations and watchdog groups.

Specifically, US assistance for customs reform is key to the Egyptian economy

Jeffrey J. Schott, senior fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics, former professor at Georgetown and official at the Treasury Department, and Barbara Kotschwar, economics professor, Georgetown, 2/4/11, “What the United States Can Do to Help a Post-Mubarak Egypt,” http://www.piie.com/realtime/?p=2003

Whoever emerges on top of the ...modernize and improve their customs facilities.

US assistance is key – aid increases trade with the donor by building goodwill

Javed Younas, Economics Professor, Central Michigan University, 9/08, European Journal of Political Economy Vol. 24 Issue 3, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268008000426

Further, we divide manufacturing imports ...—and set out some suggestions.

Assistance for reforms is key – otherwise an FTA will backfire

Ahmed Galal, Managing Director of the Economic Research Forum, a regional research institution covering the Arab countries, PhD in economics, Boston U., and former World Bank economist, and Robert Lawrence, 5/05,                                                                                                                                                      Anchoring Reform with a US-Egypt Free Trade Agreement, http://bookstore.piie.com/book-store/3683.html

It is clear from even this ...other times, it just hurts.

US/Egypt FTA solves Middle East war

Ahmed Galal, Managing Director of the Economic Research Forum, a regional research institution covering the Arab countries, PhD in economics, Boston U., and former World Bank economist, and Robert Lawrence, 7/03, “Egypt-US and Morocco-US Free Trade Agreements,” Egyptian Center for Economic Studies, Working Paper No. 87, http://www.cgdev.org/doc/event%20docs/10.23.03%20GDN%20Conf/galal%20-%20Egypt-US%20and%20Morocco-US%20Free%20Trade%20Agreements.pdf

The starting point is the observation ...sustainable policy in the Middle East.

Middle East conflict escalates and goes nuclear

Russell 09

James A. Russell, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East,” Institut Français des Relations Internationales, Spring 2009, http://www.analyst-network.com/articles/141/StrategicStabilityReconsideredProspectsforEscalationandNuclearWarintheMiddleEast.pdf

Strategic stability in the region is ...related commodity markets would be profound.

Petrodollar key to heg

Robert Looney, economics professor, Naval Postgraduate School, March-April 07, “The Iranian Oil Bourse A Threat to Dollar Supremacy?” Challenge, http://faculty.nps.edu/relooney/Rel-Challenge-07.pdf

In sum, proponents of the ...the country’s military/economic power.

Heg solves war, raises standards of living, and is better than any alternative

Barnett 11

(Thomas P.M. Barnett, Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads,

It is worth first examining the ...the shared challenge of climate change.

Failure to slow the rate of warming results in extinction- environmental collapse

(John, Geologist at several federal agencies, Baltimore Sun, “Ticking time bomb”, 12-15, L/N)

The Arctic Council's recent report on .... We have to act now.

Plan:

The United States Federal Government should offer assistance for anti-corruption reform for Egypt, including in the customs sector.

Contention Four: Solvency

Egypt will say yes to transparency assistance

Legatum Institute and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in association with the Atlantic Council, 7/11, “EGYPT’S DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION FIVE IMPORTANT MYTHS ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE,” http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/07/21/egypt-s-democratic-transition-five-important-myths-about-economy-and-international-assistance/41ca#

Continuation of certain reform programmes of ...in a short period of time.

Democracy assistance is defined by rule of law, civil society, elections, and governance. Anti-corruption assistance falls under governance

McMahon 02 Edward McMahon, Director, Center on Democratic Performance Department of Political Science, Binghamton University, 8/29/02, “The Impact of U.S. Democracy and Governance Assistance in Africa: Benin Case Study,” http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PCAAB068.pdf

U.S. Democracy Assistance ...incorporate some combination of these measures.

Aid now.

Demdigest 12/30 [December 30, 2011 in Arab Spring, Democratic transitions, Egypt, Human rights, Middle East and North Africa, National Endowment for Democracy, NGOs and Civil Society 0 Raids designed ‘to defame and stigmatize’ Egypt’s pro-democracy forces http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/12/raids-designed-to-defame-and-stigmatize-egypts-pro-democracy-forces/]

Egyptian activists defended the US-...and the National Endowment for Democracy.

Backlash to democracy assistance has stopped

(Israel News, Reuters, 12-30-11, Egypt assures US no more raids on democracy groups)

Egyptian officials have assured the United ...the official said. (Reuters)

There’s a distinction between privatization and financial reform-they’ll say yes

Khan and Milbert 11

Mohsin S. Khan, Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department, IMF, and PhD, London School of Economics, and Svetlana Milbert, research analyst, Peterson Institute for International Economics, 4/27/11, “What Will the Post-Mubarak Egyptian Economy Look Like?” http://www.piie.com/realtime/?p=2136

There is little doubt that the ...any open public opposition to them.

SCAF supports anti-corruption – it helps them check the opposition

Reuters 11/1/11, “Egypt to ratify anti-corruption law in days: minister,” http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFJOE7A002E20111101

Egypt to ratify anti-corruption ...to advance family and business interests.

The aid would be government to government

GAO ‘3  Government Accounting Office  March 2003FOREIGN ASSISTANCEU.S. Democracy Programs in Six Latin American Countries Have Yielded Modest Results     http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d03358.pdf

USAID’s anticorruption activities have helped countries ...to become more transparent and accountable.

That’s what SCAF wants

Wall Street Journal 6/14/11, “Egypt Opposes U.S.'s Democracy Funding,” http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304665904576383123301579668.html

Senior Egyptian officials have warned nongovernment ...have long been in military hands.

Existing aid gives the US leverage

Reuters 11

Reuters, “Analysis: Egypt revolution chips away at Sadat's legacy,” 10/6/11, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/06/us-egypt-sadat-anniversary-idUSTRE7951WL20111006

The peace treaty is closely linked ...took over from Mubarak in February.

SCAF only has to say yes to part of the aff- they will

Legatum Institute and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in association with the Atlantic Council, 7/11, “EGYPT’S DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION FIVE IMPORTANT MYTHS ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE,” http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/07/21/egypt-s-democratic-transition-five-important-myths-about-economy-and-international-assistance/41ca#

Donors can also help this transition ...labour markets, and media reform.

2. They want assistance- every party wants the economy to improve

OnIslam 12-27

(OnIslam is a news agency, 12-27-11,http://www.onislam.net/english/news/africa/455155-egypts-islamists-support-halal-exchange.html)

CAIRO – Showing their support for ...an elected, civilian government soon."

3. Prefer recent evidence- the situation has changed

(Marwa Awad, Reuters, 12-27-11, IMF says expects January talks with Egypt, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/27/us-egypt-imf-idUSTRE7BQ0ZS20111227)

CAIRO (Reuters) - The ...to return to the negotiating table.

4. Scaf is only in power until June

Ahram Online 12

(Ahram Online 1-1-12, Egypt constitution to be drafted before presidential elections: Minister)

Judge Mohamed Attia, minister of ...in the country's pongoing parliamentary elections.

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SCAF withdrawing now – already a roadmap

Ahram Online , Sunday 2/12, 12 Feb 2012, Egypt’s largest news organization, http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/34336/Egypt/Politics-/Presidential-hopeful-unveils-roadmap-for-SCAF-with.aspx

Mohamed Selim El-Awa, an Islamist …rocess will instead resort to the constitutional declaration that was placed in the March 2011 referendum," El-Awa clarified.

SCAF backing off now – no political legitimacy and momentum

Mara Revkin, 2/9/12, “Egypt’s Constitution: Conflicting Visions” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Mara Revkin is the assistant director of the Atlantic Council's Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East and editor of EgyptSource, a blog following Egypt's transition. This article is based on interviews conducted last week in Cairo with Egyptian legal experts, political figures, and members of the judiciary. http://carnegieendowment.org/sada/2012/02/09/egypt-s-constitution-conflicting-visions/9iuz

Although it would prefer to keep ...emboldened by its sweeping electoral mandate.

The FJP will take control

Goldstone 12

Jack Goldstone, Hazel Professor of Public Policy at George Mason University, “Turmoil in Egypt and Syria,” 1/30/12, http://newpopulationbomb.com/2012/01/30/turmoil-in-egypt-and-syria/

Egypt and Syria today are demonstrating ...that is the currency that counts.

Contention 1: Exclusion

US failure to engage the Ennahda party in Tunisia represents a double standard intended to protect Western interests.

McInerney, 11 Stephen McInerney, executive director of the Project on Middle East Democracy  November 8, 2011   Islamist Victory in Tunisia Presents Opportunity for U.S. Engagement       http://fikraforum.org/?p=1685

On October 23, Tunisia ...S. position in the country.

US policy must change to support political Islam.

Seib 12    Philip Seib, Prof of Journalism and Public Diplomacy and Prof of International Relations at the Southern Cal and director of USC’s Center on Public Diplomacy.   JAN 10, 2012  PUBLIC DIPLOMACY AND THE ARAB ISLAMISTS

http://uscpublicdiplomacy.org/index.php/newswire/cpdblog_detail/public_diplomacy_and_the_arab_islamists/

For years, Hosni Mubarak ...catch up with this new reality.

Current democracy assistance is founded on the erasure of Islam. The Arab Spring is depicted as an eruption of the chaotic spirit that must erase it’s Islamic past.

Sayyid 11-(S, director of the International Centre for Muslim and non-Muslim Understanding, at the University of South Australia, “Dis-Orienting Clusters of Civility,” Third World Quarterly, 32:5, 981-987)

The ‘third democratic wave’...most enduring means of regulating violence.

Excluding groups like Ennahda from democracy assistance demarcates a clear line between good and bad Islam – this ensures a political logic of pure assimilation.

Kull, 11 (Steven Kull, director of the Program on International Policy Attitudes, September 5, 2011, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/05/why-muslims-are-still-mad-at-america/)

America did not back away ...as seeking to undermine Islam itself.

These distinctions are explicitly racist and make continued war, genocide, and violence inevitable.

Pinar Batur, PhD @ UT-Austin – Prof. of Scociology @ Vassar, ‘7 [“The Heart of Violence: Global Racism, War, and Genocide,” in Handbook of the The Soiology of Racial and Ethnic Relations, eds. Vera and Feagin, p. 441-443]

War and genocide are horrid..., but the stakes are irresistible.

You must use the ballot to reject racism- there’s a moral obligation and it makes total violence inevitable.

Memmi 2k (MEMMI Professor Emeritus of Sociology @ Unv. Of Paris Albert-; RACISM, translated by Steve Martinot, pp.163-)SEW

The struggle against…stakes are irresistible.

Fortunately, the plan can overcome these entrenched systems of thought – Engaging with Islamic alternatives alters the concept and practice of democracy assistance.

Kurki (Aberystwyth University) 10 (Milja, Democracy and Conceptual Contestability: Reconsidering Conceptions of Democracy in Democracy Promotion, International Studies Review, 12: 362–386, 6 SEP 2010, ScienceDirect)

Reframed democracy promotion with essential ...with the contestation that currently exists.

Plan:

The United States Federal Government should offer substantial political party assistance to the Ennahda party in Tunisia.

Contention 2: Aid Now

Past, current, and future assistance non-uniques their DA.

USAID 12 USAID, “Transition in Tunisia,” January 10, 2012, http://www.usaid.gov/locations/middle_east/tunisia/index.html

The United States strongly supports the ...Libyans, and other displaced nationals.

And Obama’s spending political capital on Tunisia now.

IPS 2-14 IPS Inter Pres Service, “Obama Requests Slightly Higher Aid Levels for 2013,” February 14, 2012, http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=106758

WASHINGTON, Feb 14, 2012 ...military conflicts between and among states.

Contention 3: Impact Framing

Impact calculus isn’t neutral.  Social biases cause us to systematically underestimate the impact of racism in comparison to the unlikely negative consequences of social transformation.

Wang 06 Lu-in Wang, Law Professor, Pittsburgh, Discrimination by Default: How Racism Becomes Routine, p. 90-97

The Normalcy and … rape in Central Park,”33 but most of which included victims who were women of color.

Ongoing crisis politics props up the militarist state and triggers endless war. Our systemic death outweighs their one shot impacts.

Cuomo, 96 (Chris Associate Professor of Philosophy at the University of Cincinnati “War is not Just an Event,” Hypatia. Bloomington: Fall 1996. Vol. 11, Iss. 4;  pg. 30, Proquest)

In "Gender and `Postmodern' War," … military conflicts between and among states.

Prefer systemic impacts over the probabilistic disad claims.

Menand 5 Louis Menand, PhD, 2005 The New Yorker, “Everybody’s an Expert,” December 5

http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2005/12/05/051205crbo_books1?printable=true, [TGA]

The expert-prediction game is not much … scenario the chance of both is greater, not less.

The principle of intervening action lets you dismiss the disad.  It is the actors of their impacts that must tote the weight of the blood that they spill.

Gewirth 82 [Alan, Human Rights: Essays on Justification and Application, , pg 229-0//]

An example of this principle may help to … as mere means to his or his mother's ends.

Contention 4: Engagement Good

We must be willing to engage- Willingness to expand the scope of our political engagement in the Middle East poses real danger. Our discomfort can only be expressed in a non-colonizing fashion if we begin from the premise of openness to the other.  Failure to start with the offer reproduces all the worst effects of liberal exclusion.

Mahmood, 5 (Saba Mahmood, associate professor of social cultural anthropology at UC Berkeley, The Politics of Piety, 2005, p. 36-39)

To begin with, the ...we first embarked upon the inquiry.

The affirmative transforms antagonistic politics into agonistic politics. Such a transition requires that we embrace the insecurity that is inherent in, and constitutive of, democracy.

Mouffe 2k-(Chantal, professor of political theory at the University of Westminster, “Deliberative Democracy or Agonistic Pluralism,” Reihe Politikwissenschaft / Political Science Series 72, www.ihs.ac.at/publications/pol/pw_72.pdf)

Envisaged from the point of view ...Underdal 1998) offer useful insights.

Reciprocity in the implementation of democracy assistance prevents domination.

Van Hüllen 09, Vera. {is research associate at the Center for European Integration at  the Otto-Suhr Institute of Political Science of the Freie Universität Berlin.  She is  currently working on her dissertation covering the European Union’s democracy  promotion efforts in the Mediterranean.   "EU Democracy Promotion in the Mediterranean." Kolleg-Forschergruppe, BERLIN. Web. Nov. 2009. <http://www.polsoz.fu-berlin.de/en/v/transformeurope/publications/working_paper/WP_09_November_van-Huellen.pdf>.}

The implementation of ….norms (Chayes/Chayes 1993; Checkel 1997; Underdal 1998) offer useful insights.

Anti-interventionism resorts to orientalist narratives seeing Arabs as needing protection from outside influence – Historically this has justified dictatorship.

Sadiki, 2011 (Larbi, Jun 6, Senior Lecturer in Middle East Politics at the University of Exeter, “The mathematics of the Arab Spring,”  http://aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2011/05/2011531132934920499.html)

On the Arab side, ...and an incapacity to speak back.