Neg:Dartmouth ER

Round # 3 Tournament:

Vs Team: Texas GM

Judge: Gordie Miller

Off Case Args:

Cap K

T explicit democracy assistance

T substantial is funding

China bashing politics

CP do the plan

Case Args:

Backlash

Consequentialism

Util

High mag-low probability outweighs

War ---> patriarchy

Block Strategy:

T

K

2nr Strategy:

K

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The threat of regional instability is not self-evident but seeped in a racist description of the world – this ideological approach genocide and unending war.
Batur 7 [Pinar, PhD @ UT-Austin – Prof. of Scociology @ Vassar, The Heart of Violence: Global Racism, War, and Genocide,” in Handbook of the The Soiology of Racial and Ethnic Relations, eds. Vera and Feagin, p. 441-443]

War and genocide are horrid, and taking...geography of hunger and exploitation” are Iraq and New Orleans.

Reject the orientalist logic of the affirmative to embrace a pedagogy of non-compliance with the institutions that reproduce racialized violence.
Sheehi (Associate Professor and Arabic Program Director @ University of South Carolina) 11
(Stephen, The Social Relations of Islamophobia and the Role of The Academic, May 01 2011, http://www.jadaliyya.com/pages/TME1/1413/the-social-relations-of-islamophobia-and-the-role-)

These revolutions were one more method ....change both home and abroad. 

Central Asia is stable now – a regional framework will create stability in the future – but the plan will crush things.

Foust, 9-7-‘11
Joshua Foust, fellow at the American Security Project, 9-7-’11 (“Why We Don't Get Central Asia,” Reuters, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/09/why-we-dont-get-central-asia/244613/)

Granted, on occasion we see stories ... well-formed ideas percolating out there, too.

Democratization in Syria is a huge threat to Central Asian stability.
Walsh and Cheng, ‘11
Eddie Walsh, freelance journalist featured by ISN Insights, The East Asia Forum, The Jakarta Globe, and The Journal of Energy Security, interview is with Dean Cheng, Research Fellow at the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation; 8-21-’11 (“China in Syria Series,” The Diplomat, http://the-diplomat.com/flashpoints-blog/2011/08/21/china-in-syria-series/)

Select policymakers and experts ... Syria) rather than aid and abet it.

Spillover causes great power war

Politact, 7-2-’11 (“Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Arab Spring, Afghanistan and NATO,” Politact interviews of: DA Wei, Director, Presidents Office, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. Fyodor Lukyanov, Editor, Global Affairs, Moscow. Inderjit Singh, Professor of Political Economy and National Strategy, National War College, National Defense University, USA. By subscription or email only.)

The Arab Spring was one of ... meeting with Karimov is uncertain at best

A. Moody’s and Fitch will maintain the triple A rating in the status quo – but loss of fiscal discipline will trigger a downgrade
Bloomberg 8/2/11, “U.S. Credit Rating Affirmed as Moody’s, Fitch Warn of Downgrade on Deficit
Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch ... discipline is maintained in 2012

B. The plan reverses foreign aid cuts that are key to fiscal discipline – everything must be on the chopping block
Huffington Post 11
Huffington Post 4/13/11, “Budget Cuts In Deal Hit Defense Spending, Foreign Aid,”
Budget Cuts In Deal Hit Defense Spending...narcotics control and law enforcement programs.

C. C. We’re at the limit – any more spending will push us below a triple A rating
Miami Herald 11
Miami Herald 8/16/11, “Fitch Ratings keeps US at AAA rating,” http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/08/16/2361415/fitch-ratings-keeps-us-at-top.html
Fitch noted the rising proportion ... with a AAA rating, it said. 

D. Further downgrades lead to a global economic crisis
Goldwein 11
Marc Goldwein, senior policy analyst for the fiscal policy program at the New America Foundation and former Associate Director of the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform (also known as the Bowles-Simpson Commission), 8/11/11, “Drawing a AAA-Road Map for Post-Downgrade America,” The Atlantic, http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/08/drawing-a-aaa-road-map-for-post-downgrade-america/243463/
... Okay, Panic a Little  If rating .... no one available to bail out the U.S. government. 

E. Economic collapse causes global nuclear war.
Merlini, Senior Fellow – Brookings, 11
 [Cesare Merlini, nonresident senior fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe and chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Italian Institute for International Affairs (IAI) in Rome. He served as IAI president from 1979 to 2001. Until 2009, he also occupied the position of executive vice chairman of the Council for the United States and Italy, which he co-founded in 1983. His areas of expertise include transatlantic relations, European integration and nuclear non-proliferation, with particular focus on nuclear science and technology. A Post-Secular World?  DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2011.571015 Article Requests: Order Reprints : Request Permissions Published in: journal Survival, Volume 53, Issue 2 April 2011 , pages 117 - 130 Publication Frequency: 6 issues per year  Download PDF Download PDF (357 KB)     View Related Articles  To cite this Article: Merlini, Cesare 'A Post-Secular World?', Survival, 53:2, 117 – 130]
Two neatly opposed scenarios for ... absolutes such as unbridled nationalism.

2NC Cards
A2 - Aid Now

1. FEMA funding won’t pass
   Washington Post 9/7
   The Washington Post 9/7/11, lexis
   The damage … cuts elsewhere. 

2. It’s not new spending – it falls within the limits set by the debt ceiling deal
ABC News 11
ABC News 9/2/11, “White House Requests $5.2B in New Disaster Funds,” http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=14431237
The White House … the flexibility in disaster spending. 

4. Obama hasn’t even submitted a funding request
Washington Post 9/7
The Washington Post 9/7/11, lexis
On Monday, the … for additional funding. 

5. Hurricane funding maintains fiscal austerity – it will be offset
New York Times 11
New York Times 8/30/11, “Federal Austerity Changes Disaster Relief,” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/31/us/politics/31disaster.html
The new push for …. save when possible.” 

6. The plan is different – fiat means the plan happens immediately and offsets will have to be found later – that kills fiscal discipline
The Hill 9/8
The Hill 9/8/11, “Debt panel co-chairman Hensarling criticizes Obama plan to pay for jobs proposal,” http://thehill.com/homenews/house/180487-debt-panel-co-chair-criticizes-obama-jobs-proposal
The Republican co-chairman ….. on jobs we don’t get.” 

A2 - Plan = small

2. Extra cuts make supercommittee compromise impossible
The Hill 9/8
The Hill 9/8/11, “Debt panel co-chairman Hensarling criticizes Obama plan to pay for jobs proposal,” http://thehill.com/homenews/house/180487-debt-panel-co-chair-criticizes-obama-jobs-proposal
The Republican / we don’t get.” 

4. Lobbies – foreign aid spending causes others to lobby for pet projects – explodes the debt
Faini 06
Riccardo Faini, Economics Professor, U. Rome, 5/06, “Foreign aid and fiscal policy,” CENTRO STUDI LUCA D’AGLIANO DEVELOPMENT STUDIES WORKING PAPERS N. 212, http://socionet.org/d/repec:csl:devewp:212/http://www.dagliano.unimi.it/media/WP2006_212.pdf
Advocates of greater … for foreign aid. 

6. Markets are scrutinizing every government action post the S and P downgrade
Mosley 11
Layna Mosley, Professor, international relations, international political economy and comparative political economy, UNC Chapel Hill, 8/6/11, “From AAA to AA+: Markets, Governments and the Downgrade,” http://themonkeycage.org/blog/2011/08/06/from-aaa-to-aa-markets-governments-and-the-downgrade/
Second, the S&P action …. remains to be seen. 

A2 - Downgrade Irrelevant
2. Only downgrade by two agencies will force investors to sell Treasuries
SMH 11
Sydney Morning Herald (Australia) 8/8/11, lexis
Indeed, conservative … downgraded of late.

3. The S and P downgrade will only have an impact if fiscal discipline worsens
IHT 11
The International Herald Tribune 8/8/11, lexis
''If the political … mortgage rates.

4. Only a second downgrade will trigger dollar dumping
Frankel 11
Ken Frankel, managing member at KIF Capital Management, 8/10/11, Action In The Equities Markets More Important Than S&P, http://www.businessinsider.com/action-in-the-equities-markets-more-important-than-sp-2011-8
As for the S&P …may have a larger problem. 

China bashing is coming via revaluation talk – congressional action causes trade war
Palmer 8-11
Doug Palmer, Aug 11, 2011 “Wider trade gap could propel China currency bill,” Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/11/us-china-usa-trade-idUSTRE77A5N220110811
Just before Congress adjourned for its ... on it is another matter," he said. 

Plan costs PC
Stephens 11
Philip Stephens Associate Editor of the Financial Times May 19, 2011 “A choice of minefields for Obama” Financial Times, Lexis
The speeches - the latest on the ... But we have been here before. 

Political capital is key to blocking pushes for currency revaluation
Palmer 9-2
Doug Palmer, Journalist, “Analysis: Obama's trade legacy in a crucible this fall,” Reuters, Sep 2, 2011, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/02/us-usa-obama-trade-idUSTRE7814CZ20110902
Democrats like House ... political capital to block it. 

Chinese trade conflicts is the most likely scenario for military conflict.
Landy 7
Ben Landy, Director of Research and Strategy at the Atlantic Media Company, publisher of the Atlantic Monthly, National Journal, and Government Executive magazines, April 3, 2007, http://chinaredux.com/2007/04/03/protectionism-and-war/#comments,)
The greatest threat for the 21st... military budgets and anti-satellite tests.

Text: The European Union should provide internet access technology to Syrian opposition group. The European Union should fund this by cutting the Galileo satellite navigation program.

EU Solves Syria.
Colombo, 11 (Silvia Colombo, Middle East Researcher @ Istituto Affari Internazionali (Italy), June 2011 (http://www.ceps.eu/system/files/book/2011/06/MEDPRO%20Technical%20Report%20No%206%20Colombo%20on%20Syria%20%20Lebanon.pdf)
A final dimension in Syria’s ... with regard to the Syrian transition. 

2NC - Warming Module

EU action on Arab Spring is crucial to demonstrate European strength and leadership as an international actor.
Andersson, et al 11 (Jan Joel, PhD, is Head of Development, Senior Research Fellow and Coordinator of the Program on Defense, Security and Development Policy at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs. The European Security Strategy: Reinvigorate, Revise or Reinvent? NO 7 2011, The Swedish Institute of International Affairs. http://www.ui.se/Files.aspx?f_id=56515.)ZDM
Is 2011 a time of urgent crisis, requiring... undermining its geopolitical relevance. 

Cooperation with the US tanks EU credibility.
Fakhro 09 (E.A. Master of Law Student in International Human Rights Law at Harvard Law School and LLM from Queen Mary College, University of London The European Union and Islam: Democracy Promotion in Bahrain and the Arab World. International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance.  www.idea.int/resources/analysis/upload/Fakhro_low_2.pdf
In the light of US hegemony ... minds of the average Arab citizen. 

That’s key to stopping climate change.
Ferrero-Waldner 9/24/07 (Benita, European Commissioner for External Relations and European Neighbourhood Policy, The European Union and the world: a hard look at soft power, http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=SPEECH/07/576&format=PDF&aged=1&language=EN&guiLanguage=fr.)ZDM
The end of the cold war meant the end ... an international agreement on energy efficiency. 

Iran net gains – other countries fill in.

Flynt Leverett, Fmr Senior Director for Middle East Affairs at the National Security Council, 9/1/2011 (http://www.raceforiran.com/iran-and-syria-america%E2%80%99s-middle-east-pundits-get-it-wrong-again)

One should also question ….likely to follow him.

New regime will work with Iran.

Flynt Leverett, Fmr Senior Director for Middle East Affairs at the National Security Council, 9/1/2011 (http://www.raceforiran.com/iran-and-syria-america%E2%80%99s-middle-east-pundits-get-it-wrong-again)

Second, while most Iranian … post-Assad environment.    

Doesn’t solve conflict.

Fettweis 10 [Christopher J., fifth year doctoral student in the University of Maryland's Department of Government and Politics. His primary interests include US foreign and national security policies. His dissertation, currently titled The Geopolitics of Energy and the Obsolescence of Major War, focuses on the relationship between oil and conflict. Mr. Fettweis has a BA in History from the University of Notre Dame, Threat and Anxiety in US Foreign Policy, April 2010 Survival, 52:2, 59 - 82]

One potential explanation … expenditure are unrelated.      

No Iranian military conflict – Obama won’t resort to war

Clemons 10 [Steve, Senior Fellow & Director, American Strategy Program, New America Foundation, Stop Hyperventilating: Obama Will Not Choose War with Iran, July 23, 2010,

http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/archives/2010/07/stop_hyperventi_1/]

While there … with that option.

No Iran impact –

Zakaria 9 (10-3, Fareed, Editor Newsweek International, Newsweek, “Containing a Nuclear Iran”, http://www.newsweek.com/id/173014,

So what does that leave? …the Western world.

Civil War

Giving democracy assistance doesn’t make the opposition win

1. Assad will emerge stronger – opposition can’t seize power. Their evidence is just wishful thinking.

Flynt Leverett, Fmr Senior Director for Middle East Affairs at the National Security Council, 9/1/2011 (http://www.raceforiran.com/iran-and-syria-america%E2%80%99s-middle-east-pundits-get-it-wrong-again)

First of all, it is …thinking.        

2. Successful Assad overthrow causes widespread sectarian violence and regional nuclear war.

Valerie Szybala, specialist in Middle East Affairs @ Policymic, Fmr Researcher @ Israeli-Palestine Center for Research and Information, 6/3/2011 (http://www.policymic.com/articles/the-dark-alternatives-to-assad)

As the Syrian government …flaunts its nuclear ambitions.

3. No risk of military defection – “all or nothing” paradigm vis-à-vis Iraq.

Wayne White, Adjunct Scholar @ Middle East Institute, 6/3/2011 (http://security.nationaljournal.com/2011/05/what-will-become-of-syrias-bas.php#2004480)

Reacting to one of …. all or nothing paradigm.

4. No external intervention – lacks international support.

Daniel Serwer, Senior Fellow @ Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, 8/30/2011 (http://www.peacefare.net/?p=4540)

There is no real …. regime violence.

5. Assad overthrow causes ethnic cleansing – the impact is their Syria/Israel war scenario.

Flynt Leverett, Fmr Senior Director for Middle East Affairs at the National Security Council, 7/18/2011 (http://www.raceforiran.com/2011/07)

Ongoing turmoil in …. form the non-Sunni minorities.”

The plan creates percieved hypocrisy – aff is too little too late.

Hossein Askari, Iran Professor of International Business and Professor of International Affairs @ George Washington University, 7/26/2011 (http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/slaying-the-syria-iran-hezbollah-hydra-5657)

While the Arab …. would be left hanging.

Saudi support guts credibility anyway.

Francesca Fiorentini, Editor of Left Turn Magazine, May 2011 (http://www.war-times.org/mir/2011/may-2011/english)

With respect to monarchy, the popular p…. $60 billion in weapons from the U.S.

Sectarianism takes out solvency

Steven Heydemann, senior vice president at the United States Institute of Peace, 4/4/2011 (http://www.pomeps.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/POMEPS_BriefBooklet4_Syria-TEXT_WEB-1.pdf)

Perhaps. Yet this grand vision of a truly new Middle East rest on exceptionally wobbly foundations. This is certainly the moment for the U.S. to lend …. devastating consequences.

Assad will coopt the plan.

Thomas Pierret, Postdoctoral Fellow in Near East Studies @ Princeton, and Kjetil Selvik, Asst Prof of Culture Studies and Oriental Languages @ Oslo, 2009 (http://www.scpss.org/libs/spaw/uploads/files/English%20Content/Articles/Pierret_Kjetil_IJMES.pdf)

The specificities … associations managed by religious

Engaging the opposition destabilizes the transition – re-creates Iraq.

Peter Harling, Iraq-Syria-Lebanon Director of the International Crisis Group, 8/30/2011 (http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/30/how_not_to_prolong_the_syrian_agony)

The second mistake to …..ought not be encouraged.  

Aff fails – no new leverage

Marc Lynch, Associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, 4/27/2011 (http://www.pomeps.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/POMEPS_BriefBooklet4_Syria-TEXT_WEB-1.pdf)

The core of the …on Syria’s course.   

SQ solves internet spread, but western assistance causes regime action to shut down access

Jay Ulfelder, former research director for the Political Instability Task Force, 6/13/2011 (http://dartthrowingchimp.wordpress.com/2011/06/13/the-illiberal-consequences-of-u-s-government-investments-in-liberation-technology/)

If foreign governments …targeted regimes.

The Affirmative shuts down the agonism they hope to produce and make neoliberal control inevitable -

 a swarm of US experts on civil society and deliberative forums will short circuit any radical potential gender politics might have

Neocosmos (Professor and Director of Global Movements Research at Monash University, in Johannesburg. He is also a fellow at the Centre for Humanities Research at the University of the Western Cape) 11

(Michael, Mass mobilisation, ‘democratic transition’ and ‘transitional violence’ in Africa, 2011-03-31, Issue 523, http://pambazuka.org/en/category/features/72163)

Yet the appearance of the … the politics of the state.

The desire to promote civil society is based on white cultural supremacy

Hoh (Shash Racism - Sydney anti-racist network) 2

(Ben, \Boarderlands 1.1, "We Are All Barbarians: Racism, Civility and the "War on Terror"," )

Now this situation actually has a … that are accessible to all.

The term Arab Spring perpetuates a neoliberal and imperialist mindset that denies the Middle East agency.

Khouri 11 [Rami G. Khouri, The Daily Star, Drop the Orientalist term ‘Arab Spring’ August 17, 2011 12:32 AM http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Columnist/2011/Aug-17/Drop-the-Orientalist-term-Arab-Spring.ashx#axzz1VPU9JcU8]

A fascinating aspect of the … is my suggested starting point.

The aff attempts to integrate the irreducible other.  This is the most extreme act of incorporation.  The idea of unfettered dialogue is a water-carrier for neoliberal domination

Cooper, 8 (Melinda Cooper, lecturer in the Department of Sociology at the University of Sydney, Australia, Orientalism in the Mirror: The Sexual Politics of Anti-Westernism, Theory Culture Society 2008 25: 25)

Mediating between revolutionary anti-capitalism … divisions of faith and doctrine.8

Our alternative is non-compliance with structures of liberalism.

In order to construct a just and inclusive political we must reject both the US’s complicity in patriarchal structures and the aff’s endorsement of the extension of liberalism as a remedy for those problems.

Sheehi (Associate Professor and Arabic Program Director @ University of South Carolina) 11

(Stephen, The Social Relations of Islamophobia and the Role of The Academic, May 01 2011, http://www.jadaliyya.com/pages/TME1/1413/the-social-relations-of-islamophobia-and-the-role-)

These revolutions were one more method of stripping ideological myths, Islamophobia among them. In other words, the uprisings have shown how Islamophobia is one twine that interweaves and binds neoliberalism, authoritarianism (in its various forms), privatization, food security, suppression of civil liberties, US political and economic imperialism, and the occupation of Palestine with local elites, autocracies, Western powers, and international financial and political institutions. In other words, the events since December indicate to us that mass movements express a social relation to a systemic order that involves globalized capitalism, state power and US Empire.

The visceral reactions of many … change both home and abroad.

Boehner ableto use his political capital to hold back republican pressure for currency legislation in the squo

Hughes 11-10

Siobhan Hughes, NOVEMBER 10, 2011 “US Rep Brooks Challenges House Speaker On China Currency Policy” Dow Jones Newswires http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20111110-715673.html

Rep. Mo Brooks (R., Ala.) is … among the rank and file.

But pressure from the GOP created by the plan would cause china bashing to pass

Ma 10-6

Damien Ma is a China analyst at Eurasia Group. He has written for Slate, The New Republic, and Forbes. Oct 6 2011, “What's Behind Congress Taking on China's Currency Policy” The Atlantic http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/10/whats-behind-congress-taking-on-chinas-currency-policy/246098/

Free trade deals in exchange … it is likely to pass.

Plan costs political capital

Karmi 11

Omar Karmi Aug 2, 2011 “US argues over foreign aid policy along with its debt problem” The National http://www.thenational.ae/news/worldwide/middle-east/us-argues-over-foreign-aid-policy-along-with-its-debt-problem?pageCount=0

In a speech in May, President … foreseeable future," Mr Lieberman said.

Starts a trade war and kills global growth

Carmosky  9-8

Janet Carmosky, Contributor 9/08/2011 “China Bashing Season Officially Kicks Off” Forbes http://www.forbes.com/sites/janetcarmosky/2011/09/08/china-bashing-season-officially-kicks-off/

In the past 24 hours both  … enemy (that isn’t us) be worth it?

Most likely scenario for military conflict

Landy 7

Ben Landy, Director of Research and Strategy at the Atlantic Media Company, publisher of the Atlantic Monthly, National Journal, and Government Executive magazines, April 3, 2007, http://chinaredux.com/2007/04/03/protectionism-and-war/#comments,)

The greatest threat for the … budgets and anti-satellite tests.