Syria 1AC

• Tournament: USC | Round: 1 | Opponent: Wake CB | Judge: Weil
  
  

• //
  
  
  ////
  
  
  // 

  Contention One: Stability

  Assad will lose – the longer regime change takes, the more bloody the current civil war will get.

  Elliott Abrams, Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies @ Council on Foreign Relations, 12/11/2011 (http://blogs.cfr.org/abrams/2011/12/11/the-syrian-civil-war/#more-2379)

  The revolt against the Assad regime is becoming a civil war. The London-based Arabic newspaper Asharq Alawsat reports this:

  Defections … that day closer.

   

  Engagement reduces the transition period – the opposition is currently above sectarianism.

  Amir Taheri, Columnist for the Wall Street Journal and the NY Post, 11/1/2011 (http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/publications/id.10715/pub_detail.asp)

  When they started ….evaporate in a few day

   

  Drawn out Syrian civil war escalates.

  Shaul Mishal, Poli Sci @ Tel Aviv University, Specializes in Arab and Palestinian Politics, 12/29/2011 (http://www.haaretz.com/weekend/magazine/middle-east-outrageous-inspired-inevitable-1.404375)

  In Syria, there …. will weaken.

   

  Extinction

  Dr. Christof Lehmann, psychologist, political advisor and consultant, 12/15/2011 (http://pressenza.com/npermalink/the-manufacturing-of-the-war-in-syria)

  A military attack on …. with Syria and Peace.

   

  Quick opposition victory in Syria reduces Saudi threat perceptions of Iran.

  F. Gregory Gause, Political Science @ UVM, Specialist in Saudi Affairs, 12/9/2011 (http://www.cfr.org/saudi-arabia/saudis-new-mideast-challenges/p26760)

  There's certainly rhetorical ….nfluence in the Arab world.

   

  Key to reducing sectarian drum-beating – the impact is extremism, a direct Iran/Saudi military clash, and broader Middle East war.

  F. Gregory Gause, Political Science @ UVM, Specialist in Saudi Affairs, 12/9/2011 (http://www.cfr.org/saudi-arabia/saudis-new-mideast-challenges/p26760)

  So the Saudis cannot … the Middle East

   

  Middle East conflict escalates and goes nuclear

  Russell 09

  James A. Russell, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East,” Institut Français des Relations Internationales, Spring 2009, http://www.analyst-network.com/articles/141/StrategicStabilityReconsideredProspectsforEscalationandNuclearWarintheMiddleEast.pdf

  Strategic stability in the…entire world.

   

  Doesn’t need to draw in great powers – Israel alone has enough to cause extinction.

  Casey ’6 — Mingus Casey, Scoop News, 10-9-6 “On the History of Nuclear Arms, the Arms trade, and one very small very vulnerable very beautiful planet” online

  The ecological … will probably die out.

   

  Iran/Saudi war collapses the global economy.

  Jain, visiting fellow at The Washington Institute, 11

  [Ash, served as a member of the State Department’s Policy Planning Staff from 2004 to 2010, Nuclear Weapons and Iran’s Global Ambitions, Washington Institute, Policy Focus 114, August, 2011, ]

  As it looks for … face of a nuclear Iran.

   

  Economic collapse causes global nuclear war

  Merlini, Senior Fellow – Brookings, 11

  [Cesare Merlini, nonresident senior fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe and chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Italian Institute for International Affairs (IAI) in Rome. He served as IAI president from 1979 to 2001. Until 2009, he also occupied the position of executive vice chairman of the Council for the United States and Italy, which he co-founded in 1983. His areas of expertise include transatlantic relations, European integration and nuclear non-proliferation, with particular focus on nuclear science and technology. A Post-Secular World?  DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2011.571015 Article Requests: Order Reprints : Request Permissions Published in: journal Survival, Volume 53, Issue 2 April 2011 , pages 117 - 130 Publication Frequency: 6 issues per year  Download PDF Download PDF (~357 KB)     View Related Articles  To cite this Article: Merlini, Cesare 'A Post-Secular World?', Survival, 53:2, 117 – 130]

  Two neatly opposed …such as unbridled nationalism.

   

  The plan provides the training necessary for the opposition to unseat Assad.

  Erica Chenoweth, Assistant Professor of Government at Wesleyan University, 12/10/2011 (http://rationalinsurgent.wordpress.com/2011/12/10/13-ways-to-support-the-syrian-opposition-right-now/)

  Strengthen the opposition’s …. nonviolent sanctions.

   

  Plan increases legitimacy of the opposition – means Assad loses control of key minorities

  Dennis Ross, Fmr Senior Middle East Advisor to the White House, 12/21/2011 (http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC07.php?CID=622)

  ROSS: This is a regime that … by tolerance, inclusion, and basically progress.

   

  US engagement with the opposition strengthens local movements and fractures Assad’s key bases of support

  Fly et al 11/8/2011

  Jamie M. Fly (FPI), Robert Zarate (FPI), Mark Dubowitz (FDD), Reuel Marc Gerecht (FDD), Tony Badran (FDD), Ammar Abdulhamid (FDD), and John Hannah (FDD). The Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) for the Syrian Working Group. November 8, 2011. “Towards a Post-Assad Syria: Options for the United States and Like-Minded Nations to Further Assist the Anti-Regime Syrian Opposition”. http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/towards-a-post-assad-syria/

  To begin with, Washington … and Arab partners.

   

  Opposition no longer divided

  Al Jazeera 12/31/2011 (http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/12/20111231132118760926.html)

  Amid the violence, two … to be foreign".

   

  Only the US can build the international consensus necessary to fracture Assad’s support

  Michael Young, Editor of the Daily Star (Beirut), Analyst on Syrian and Lebanese political affairs, 8/1/2011 (http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/08/01/washington-avoids-syrian-crackdown-in-hama.html)

  Today, much has …light to continue murdering.

   

  US is key – only actor that can mediate between regional interests.

  Tony Badran is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 9/29/2011 (http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/the-uncomfortable-reality-in-syria/)

  But without a fallback plan, ….: ensuring the demise of the Assad regime.

   

   

  Contention Two: Credibility

   

  Obama’s failure to lead on the Arab Spring destroys credibility of US foreign policy – decisive action on Syria is the key foreign policy win that restores strength abroad.

  Pletka, Vice President at the American Enterprise Institute, and Gottlieb, Professor @ Columbia, 10/19/2011 [Danielle Pletka is Vice President, Foreign and Defense Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute, served for ten years as a senior professional staff member for the Near East and South Asia on the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, AND Stuart, former Senate foreign policy adviser and speechwriter (1999-2003), and teaches U.S. foreign policy and national security at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, “Shrinking America's Role In the World Is the True Obama Doctrine”, ,]

  After months of mixed … to actual American leadership.

   

  Syria is the key test case – Assad’s defiance undermines credible US action elsewhere.

  Singh, director of the Washington Institute, 8/16/2011 [Michael, managing director of The Washington Institute and a former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council., The U.S. Needs to Speak Clearly on Syria, 2011, ]

  When the story of the …. will once again need to deal with him.

   

  Obama needs to take the lead in supporting the opposition – rebuilds credibility.

  Gordon, foreign policy consultant and former Pentagon spokesman, 8/20/2011 [J.D. is a communications consultant to several Washington-D.C. think tanks and a retired Navy Commander who served as a Pentagon spokesman in the Office of the Secretary of Defense from 2005-2009. Libya, Syria Show Obama in Way Over His Head Available Online @ http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/08/20/libya-syria-show-obama-in-way-over-his-head/#ixzz1Vgk2QcQB]

  With Syria, Mr. Obama …. own military arsenals.

   

  Weak foreign policy undermines the deterrent effect of hegemony

  Bolton 9 - Senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute [John R. Bolton (Former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations) “The danger of Obama's dithering,” Los Angeles Times, October 18, 2009, pg. http://articles.latimes.com/2009/oct/18/opinion/oe-bolton18]

  Weakness in American …., not a virtual one."

   

  Perceived weakness emboldens regional power grabs by revisionist dictators – forceful leadership is key.

  L. Sue Hulett is the Richard P. and Sophia D. Henke Distinguished Professor of Political Science and chair of the Political Science Department at Knox College, 9/3/2011 (http://www.galesburg.com/newsnow/x1638741805/Sue-Hulett-Has-Obama-abandoned-global-leadership)

  We also know a bit more about Obama’s …. democracy and liberty. 

   

  Nuclear war

  Khalilzad 11 [Zalmay, was the United States ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, and the United Nations during the presidency of George W. Bush and the director of policy planning at the Defense Department from 1990 to 1992. FEBRUARY 8, 2011 4:00 A.M. The Economy and National Security http://www.conservativesforamerica.com/national-review/the-economy-and-national-security]

  We face this … Chinese hegemony and aggression.

   

  Makes multiple scenarios for global war inevitable – Iranian and Russian expansionism and South Asian stability.

  Hanson 9 – Senior Fellow in Residence in Classics and Military History @ Hoover Institution, Stanford University [Dr. Victor Davis Hanson, “Change, Weakness, Disaster, Obama: Answers from Victor Davis Hanson,” Interview with the Oregon Patriots, Resistnet.com, December 7, 2009 http://www.victorhanson.com/articles/hanson121609.html)

  BC: Are we currently sending …. it will bite or when.

   

  Russian expansionism leads to nuclear war.

  Ariel Cohen 96, Senior Policy Analyst @ the Heritage Foundation, 1-25-96 (Heritage Foundation Reports)

  Much is at stake in ….Western and local economies.

   

  Taiwan war causes extinction.

  Johnson, 2001 (Chalmers, President of Japan Policy Research Institute, The Nation, 5/14, l/n)

  China is another … virtually no deterrent effect.

   

  China/India war goes nuclear.

  Kahn ’09 [Jeremy, Masters Degree in IR from London School of Economics and freelance journalist based in New Delhi, 10/10, Newsweek, “Why India Fears China”, http://www.newsweek.com/2009/10/09/why-india-fears-china.html]

  China claims some …. "there will be no repeat of 1962."

   

  Indo-pak war causes extinction.

  Robinson ’10 Dr. David Robinson, History lecturer at Edith Cowan University in Perth, Western Australia and published author that holds a PhD in History, and is mid-way through a Master of International Relations degree. “The Regional and Global Implications of India’s Rise as a Great Power.” – June 17th, 2010 – made available at http://lfort.wordpress.com/2010/06/17/indias-rise-as-a-great-power/#_ftn21

  India is four times larger ….. and global consequences.

   

  Text: The United States federal government should provide technical assistance for democratic opposition to Bashar Al-Assad.

  
  

• Use the button to Add an Entry.

  Use the first box for pre-formatted wiki syntax or plain text.

  
  
  

GSU Aff

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  
• 
  

• US is disengaging from Libya- which means limited funding for UN mission
  Los Angeles Times 9/1/11, lexis
  Despite signs of dangerous fractures among ...postwar stabilization effort, if necessary.

  Libya does not currently have a police training program
  New York Times 9/4/11, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/04/world/middleeast/04libya.html
  TRIPOLI, Libya — Libya’s interim ...weapons when told to do so.

  The Libyan transition will fail without increased international assistance.
  Ronald Bruce St John, affiliate professor at the Institute of International Studies, Bradley University (until 2006), served on the International Advisory Board of the Journal of Libyan Studies and the Atlantic Council Working Group on Libya, 8/30/11, “Why democracy has a good chance in Libya,” http://www.cnn.com/2011/OPINION/08/30/stjohn.libya.next/
  After that, the road ahead ...people are up to the task.

  Police training is key – Iraq and Afghanistan prove.
  Dobbins and Wehrey, RAND, 11
  James Dobbins, director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at the RAND Corporation, and Frederic Wehrey, policy analyst @ RAND, 8/23/2011 (http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68227/james-dobbins-and-frederic-wehrey/libyan-nation-building-after-qaddafi?page=show#)
  Second, there are no Western ...participate heavily in such an effort.

  Libyan instability causes nuclear war
  Stephen Lendman, 2011 (Stephen, Harvard BA, Wharton MBA, six years as a marketing research analyst, now writes on vital world and national topics, including war and peace, American imperialism, corporate dominance, political persecutions, and a range of other social, economic and political issues, 7/6, “Libya - Flashpoint For World Conflict”, http://www.rense.com/general94/libya.htm)
  Scott told Progressive Radio News Hour ...than WW I seemed in early 1914.

  Libyan instability causes right-wing resurgence in Europe
  CSM 9/1/2011 (http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/us-tries-firm-economic-relationship-libya?page=full)
  A politically stable Libya is particularly ...immigrant political forces, she adds.

  Right-wing backlash will end the EU
  Macleans (Canadian weekly news magazine) 8/19/11, http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/08/19/states-of-disunion/
  The first signs of trouble for ...less relevant to the global economy.”

  EU collapse causes nuclear war
  James Dunnis, former Australian consul in East Timor who wrote the definitive book on East Timor’s history and UNTAET Expert on Crimes Against Humanity in East Timor, 8/16/11, “A financial storm gathers: one we can weather,” http://lawcrimepolitics.com/financial-storm-gathers-weather
  Most Europeans will never forget their ...to be prevented at all cost

  Libyan instability crushes Italy’s economy
  James Kanter and Judy Dempsey, NYT, 2/24/2011 (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/25/world/europe/25iht-migration25.html)
  Part of the reason for anxiety ...to prevent an influx of migrants.

  Crisis in Italy collapses the eurozone
  The Gazette (Montreal) 9/9/11, lexis
  Senior EU officials are speaking privately ...it wouldn't resolve the debt crisis."

  Euro disintegration causes global economic collapse
  The Economist 9/10/11, http://www.economist.com/node/21528629
  Barry Eichengreen, a monetary historian ...bank runs in other peripheral countries.

  Economic collapse causes global nuclear war
  Merlini, Senior Fellow – Brookings, 11
  [Cesare Merlini, nonresident senior fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe and chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Italian Institute for International Affairs (IAI) in Rome. He served as IAI president from 1979 to 2001. Until 2009, he also occupied the position of executive vice chairman of the Council for the United States and Italy, which he co-founded in 1983. His areas of expertise include transatlantic relations, European integration and nuclear non-proliferation, with particular focus on nuclear science and technology. A Post-Secular World?  DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2011.571015 Article Requests: Order Reprints : Request Permissions Published in: journal Survival, Volume 53, Issue 2 April 2011 , pages 117 - 130 Publication Frequency: 6 issues per year  Download PDF Download PDF (357 KB)     View Related Articles  To cite this Article: Merlini, Cesare 'A Post-Secular World?', Survival, 53:2, 117 – 130]
  Two neatly opposed scenarios for the ...secular absolutes such as unbridled nationalism.

  US expertise key to stability- acting through the UN prevents backlash
  William Bauer, Worked @ North African NGO, Middle East Studies Degree from Exeter, 8/21/2011 (http://www.policymic.com/article/show?id=1470)
  So, what is next for ....S. has to offer.

  Aid decreases the probability of conflict
  Savun, Political Science Professor, and Tirone 11
  Burcu Savun, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Pittsburgh _{and Daniel C. Tirone is a Ph.D. Candidate in the Department of Political Science, University of Pittsburgh        American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 55, No. 2, April 2011, Pp. 233–246     Foreign Aid, Democratization, and Civil Conflict: How Does Democracy Aid Affect Civil Conflict? http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00501.x/pdf
  What is the substantive effect of ...substantively as well as statistically significant.}

  Libya is a key test case for multilateral institutions- post-Gadafhi commitment is key to international credibility
  Robert Danin, Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies, CFR, 8/22/11, Council on Foreign Relations, “Post-Qaddafi Instability in Libya,” http://www.cfr.org/africa/post-qaddafi-instability-libya/p25693
  But Libya is also important for ...Western oil interest in that country.

  The US is refusing to assist Libya and it’s causing tensions with the international community
  Jennifer Bendery, former correspondent for White House and Congressional leadership at Roll Call, 8/25/11, “Obama Unlikely To Sink Money Into Rebuilding Libya, Experts Say,” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/25/obama-rebuilding-
  libya_n_936852.html
  WASHINGTON  At a time when ...or financial assistance, he said.

  Sustained commitment in Libya through the UN is key to effective international collaboration
  POMED citing Brimmer, PhD in IR from Oxford, 9/10
  ( Project on Middle East Democracy, a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization dedicated to examining how genuine democracies can develop in the Middle East and how the U.S. can best support that process, 9/10/2011, http://pomed.org/blog/2011/09/pomed-notes-usip-sustaining-americas-global-leadership-us-priorities-at-the-un.html/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+POMED_blog+%28Project+on+Middle+East+Democracy+Blog%29&utm_content=Google+Reader)
  With the context of global changes...robust in order to be effective.

  The US is perceived as disengaging from the UN- this hinders multilateral leadership and cooperation
  Brimmer 9-7
  (Esther Brimmer, PHD in IR from Oxford, Assistant Secretary of State for International Organizations, Bureau of International Organization Affairs, Remarks at the U.S. Institute of Peace, Sustaining America's Global Leadership: U.S. Priorities at the United Nations, September 7, 2011, http://www.state.gov/p/io/rm/2011/171747.htm)
  So amid these calls for U...just a perfect platform for it.

  US commitment to post-conflict stability assistance in Libya boosts UN legitimacy
  Patrick, CFR, 11
  Stewart Patrick, Senior Fellow and Director, Program on International Institutions and Global Governance @ Council on Foreign Relations, 8/25/2011 (http://blogs.cfr.org/patrick/2011/08/25/un-peacekeeping-ready-for-libya/)
  Peacekeeping is an excellent deal for ...choose among their own international obligations.

  UN credibility key to U.S. multilateral leadership
  Margon and Norris 11 (Sarah Margon, Associate Director of the Sustainable Security and Peacebuilding Initiative at the Center for American Progress, and John Norris, executive director of the Sustainable Security program at the Center for American Progress, April 2011, Withdrawing from the United Nations:A Misguided Assault, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/04/pdf/un_report.pdf)
  The United Nations enhances our national ...campaign and in providing humanitarian assistance.

  US credibility within multilateral institutions is key to global stability
  Stewart Patrick, Senior Fellow and Director, Program on International Institutions and Global Governance @ Council on Foreign Relations, 6/3/2011 (http://blogs.cfr.org/patrick/2011/06/03/summer-reading-ikenberry%E2%80%99s-liberal-leviathan/)
  You can find that argument in ...its behavior in a given institution.

  US leadership in the UN prevents war, climate change, and disease
  Brimmer 9-7
  (Esther Brimmer, Assistant Secretary, Bureau of International Organization Affairs, Remarks at the U.S. Institute of Peace, Sustaining America's Global Leadership: U.S. Priorities at the United Nations, September 7, 2011, http://www.state.gov/p/io/rm/2011/171747.htm)
  Here in the United States, ...engagement at the United Nations works.

  HIV destroys immunity- enables opportunistic diseases
  NewsDay 1
  (NEWSDAY 5-31-2001 (http://www.aegis.com/news/NEWSDAY/2001/ND010505.html))
  Today, with the AIDS epidemic ...bird viruses and farm animal parasites.

  Extinction
  Zimmerman 96
  (ZIMMERMAN AND ZIMMERMAN 1996 (Barry and David, both have M.S. degrees from Long Island University, Killer Germs p
  132)
  Then came AIDS…and Ebola ...Matrix, by Robin Marantz Hening.

  Collapse of the UN results in international anarchy and the end to civilization
  Spencer 11
  (Christopher Spencer, Former Senior Advisor International Organizations, Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade, 1-15-11, GLOBAL ISSUES AND UN RELEVANCE)
  It is not about the ...than previous UN debates and commitments.

  Failure to slow the rate of warming results in extinction- environmental collapse
  (John, Geologist at several federal agencies, Baltimore Sun, “Ticking time bomb”, 12-15, L/N)
  The Arctic Council's recent report on .... We have to act now.

  PLAN: The United States federal government should offer police training assistance to the United Nations for Libya

  The US can earmark funds to the UN
  Brett D. Schaefer, Fellow in International Regulatory Affairs at Heritage's Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom, 2/3/10, “Time to Rein in the U.N.'s Budget,” http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2010/02/time-to-rein-in-the-uns-budget
  Extrabudgetary Resources. This obfuscation of ..._01.pdf (January 20, 2010).

  Democracy assistance means the transfer of funds, expertise, and materials to groups working for democracy, including international institutions
  Richard Lappin, participant in democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE, and Carter Center, University of Belgrade political sciences visiting scholar, Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, 10, Volume 4 Issue 1, ―What we talk about when we talk about democracy assistance: the problem of definition in post-conflict approaches to democratization‖ http://www.cejiss.org/issue/2010-volume-4-issue-1/lappin, p.187-8, accessed 5-16-11
  Democracy assistance can be most accurately ..., media groups and political parties.

  
  
  

A2 - Police Training Not Democracy Assistance

• Tournament: GSU | Round: 5 | Opponent: NU BK | Judge:
  
  

• 2-

  
  

• Plan falls under ICITAP
  Fed News 06
  US Fed News 6/18/06, “U.S. DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE TRAINING PROGRAM GRADUATES SIXTY-FOUR GHANA POLICE,” lexis
  The U.S. Embassy issued …to cover the event. 

  Democracy assistance can be directed at a set list of processes – one is police
  Carothers 91
  Thomas Carothers, vice president at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 99, Aiding democracy abroad: the learning curve, google books
  The most common and … may sometimes view it as such).

  ICITAP is the only police-related democracy assistance
  Carothers 91
  Thomas Carothers, vice president at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 91, “In the Name of Democracy: U.S. Policy Toward Latin America in the Reagan Years,” google books
  ICITAP was not the …more effective in their operational capabilities.

  Plan is an ICITAP mission
  Melia 05
  Thomas O. Melia, Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State in the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor, at the United States Department of State, 9/05, The Democracy Bureaucracy The Infrastructure of American Democracy Promotion, http://www.princeton.edu/~ppns/papers/democracy_bureaucracy.pdf
  ICITAP'S mission, …, such as Turkmenistan.52

  The topic says FOR not TO- the plan must be intended for Libya
  Dictionary.com     http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/FOR
  For
  1.with the object or purpose of: to run for exercise.
  2. intended to belong to, or be used in connection with: equipment for the army; a closet for dishes. 

  5. Democracy assistance is usually through organizations—including IGOs –not  government to government (in 1ac)
  Lappin 10. Richard Lappin, Ph.D. candidate, Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies, University of Leuven (Belgium); has participated in over a dozen democracy assistane missions for the UN, EU, OSCE, and Carter Center and has recently completed assignments in Sierra Leone, Lebanon, and Romania, Currentlym visiting Scholar at the Faculty of Political Science at the University of Belgrade,                      2010 Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, Vol 4, Issue 1  What We Talk ABout When We Talk ABout Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation,
  http://www.cejiss.org/issue/2010-volume-4-issue-1/lappin
  Democracy assistance can …, media groups and political parties.

  6. overlimits- most aid goes through intermediaries- (optional)
  Newberg  96   Paula R. Newberg and Thomas Carothers, senior associates at the CarnegieE ndowment for International Peace  World Policy Journal, Vol. 13, No. 1 (Spring, 1996)  Aidingand Defining: Democracy   http://www.jstor.org/stable/40209465
  The first problem concerns … overall U.S. assistance effort.

  
  
  

2AC GSU Doubles

• Tournament: GSU | Round: Doubles | Opponent: Georgetown AM | Judge: Hardy, Feldman, Mulholland
  
  
• 
  

• AT: T-Police 

  1. Democracy assistance includes the security sector
     Carothers 09
     Thomas Carothers Vice President for Studies Carnegie Endowment for International Peace  2009, REVITALIZING U.S. DEMOCRACY ASSISTANCE: THE CHALLENGE OF USAID, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/revitalizing_democracy_assistance.pdf
     USAID’s democracy and governance work … of the other three categories. 

  2. Democracy assistance can be directed at a set list of processes – one is police
  Carothers 91
  Thomas Carothers, vice president at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 99, Aiding democracy abroad: the learning curve, google books
  The most common and often … sometimes view it as such).
  3. Plan falls under ICITAP
  Fed News 06
  US Fed News 6/18/06, “U.S. DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE TRAINING PROGRAM GRADUATES SIXTY-FOUR GHANA POLICE,” lexis
  The U.S. Embassy issued the following … invited to cover the event. 

  4. ICITAP is the only police-related democracy assistance
  Carothers 91
  Thomas Carothers, vice president at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 91, “In the Name of Democracy: U.S. Policy Toward Latin America in the Reagan Years,” google books
  ICITAP was not the only … effective in their operational capabilities.

  5.UN peacekeeping is democracy assistance
  White 2k
  Nigel D. White, Professor of International Organisations’ Law, U. Nottingham (UK), 2k, Democracy assistance: international co-operation for democratization, p. 76-7
  In recognition of the link … it during the transitional period.

  6. neg’s interp overlimits- prefer aff creativity- the topic is already small with few solvency advocates- 

  7. still get da’s to us assistance- we provide technical and financial assistance 

  9. prefer our author- carothers pretty much invented democracy assistance

  10. their definition is bad

  1. 1. prefer reasonability- aff predictability is equally important 

  US K2 UN Cards
  US commitment key to the UN
  Bruce Jones, Director and Senior Fellow of the Center on International Cooperation, 5/27/2011 (http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00396338.2011.586188)
  Context, cynicism and complexity will … , led by the United States.

  U.S. leadership through the UN is key to UN credibility and reforms
  Margon and Norris 11
  (Sarah Margon, Associate Director of the Sustainable Security and Peacebuilding Initiative at the Center for American Progress, and John Norris, executive director of the Sustainable Security program at the Center for American Progress, April 2011, Withdrawing from the United Nations:A Misguided Assault, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/04/pdf/un_report.pdf)
  It is remarkable that lawmakers … effective and dramatically more expensive. 

  US failure to contribute causes European backlash
  Bronson 02
  Rachel Bronson, Senior Fellow and Director of Middle East Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, Nov/Dec 02, “When Soldiers Become Cops,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 81, Issue 6, EBSCO
  The lack of American interest … Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan.

  AT: Canada CP

  Perm do both. It solves better – Savun and Tirone’s study finds a LINEAR RELATIONSHIP between the amount of aid and the probability of conflict.

  Conditionality is a voting issue – It undermines depth of argument and creates a moving target unfairly skewing ground to the neg – 2AC strategy is based on the  1NC so damage is already done – make them defend the practice of conditionality not just this counterplan

  Can’t solve police training – US model key – that’s Dobbins.

  US key to the UN – Sheng says damage to the UN cannot be repaired without US participation because we’re a key global power. Margon and Norris say it’s key to US foreign policy, which stabilizes the world.

  Only US participation makes the UN effective
  Weiss 09
  Thomas G. Weiss, Political Science Professor, CUNY, 09, What's wrong with the United Nations and how to fix it, google books
  UN-led or UN-approved operations … UN affairs is a global concern.

  Loss of US support kills UN contributions
  BWC and UNA 11
  (Better World Campaign, and United Nations Association of the United States of America, March 24th 2011, The United States and the United Nations in the 112th Congress, Briefing Book)
  Funding Levels for Voluntary Accounts … affect programs in other agencies. 

  International counterplans are a voting issue. They’re illogical because no actor can choose between the US and Canada, they make it impossible to be aff, and they force reliance on generic soft power arguments instead of specific regional developments.

  AT: K
   

  1. Case outweighs – forgoing the use of the UN prevents cooperative solutions to global problems- left unchecked climate change and disease will cause extinction- they require action through the only international institution with UNIVERSAL membership
     
     2. Perm do both- use of the UN challenges unilateral democracy promotion- policy solutions are key
     Kurki 11 [The Limitations of the  Critical Edge: Reflections on  Critical and Philosophical IR  Scholarship Today Milja Kurki Aberystwyth University, UK Millennium: Journal of International Studies 40(1) 129–146]
     Future-oriented Concrete Utopias Such … for progressive and emancipatory politics.

  3. The K’s inability to distinguish international cooperation- from military unilateralism undermines political strategies to prevent truly imperialist policies
  Michael Berube, Cultural Studies & Literature @ Penn State University, 2009 (The Left at War p. 90-94)
  The hatred of America's liberal … their conceptual and political weaknesses.

  Turn: Making representations a prior issue justifies complacency with deaths in the Middle East. Only the aff can create momentum for better representations
  Varisco 07
  Daniel Varisco, Chari of anthropology and director of Middle Eastern and Central Asia studies at Hofstra, Reading Orientalism: Said and the Unsaid, pp. 290-295
  In sum, the essential argument … mantra of a “clash of civilizations.”

  Their framework puts an end to serious policy inquiry. Shouldn’t exclude representations of the Middle East because they come from Westerners. Their blanket rejection silences outside voices.
  Teitelbaum and Litvak 06
  Joshua Teitelbaum, Senior Fellow at Moshe Dayan Center from Middle East and African Studies (Tel Aviv University) and Meir Litvak, Middle Eastern and African History at Tel Aviv, 06, “Students, Teachers and Edward Said: Taking Stock of Orientalism” Middle East Review of International Affairs 10(1) p. 29-30
  Said’s over-generalized and non-… an opinion of their own.

  AT: “Assistance” PIC

  1. Perm – do the CP.
     Only counterplans that have a different legal mandate than the plan are competitive.
     A. Not debatable – we can’t garner offense against a CP that does the exact same thing as the plan.
     B. Education – limits out bad CPs like “the,” “it,” and “persons” PICs that discourage case specific research.
     C. Solves their offense – they can have word PICs and discursive arguments, they just can’t have the exact same mandate as the plan.

  2. Word PICs are bad – voting issue. Steals all the substantive parts of the plan, isn’t based in the lit, and saps focus from debate over substantive issues. Discourse D/As solve their offense.

  3. Perm – do both. Abstaining from bad words paralyzes politics.
  Schram, prof social theory and policy @ Bryn Mawr College, ‘95
  (Sanford F. Schram, professor of social theory and policy at Bryn Mawr College, 1995, words of welfare: The Poverty of Social Science and the Social Science of Poverty, pg. 20-26 “The sounds of silence…what isolated instances of renaming can accomplish”)
  The sounds of silence are … who help reinforce existing prejudices.

  4. Using “assistance” creates an ethical relationship – denotes that we should help people
  Lennart Wohlgemuth, Center for African Studies • Göteborgs Universitet, 2006 (http://www.externarelationer.adm.gu.se/digitalAssets/808/808122_Perspectives_3.pdf)
  Humanitarian assistance deals with the … humanitarian aid (Sveriges Riksdag, fråga 2003/04:596).

  5. “Assistance” isn’t overbearing or racist if that’s what is requested by Libyans as per our 1AC evidence – the ethical relationship already runs both ways.

  6. “Assistance” key to stability – corruption.
  Morten Broberg, University of Copenhagen, Faculty of Law and Danish Institute for International Studies, 2010 (http://www.diis.dk/graphics/Publications/WP2010/WP2010-29-broberg-much-ado-web.pdf)
  Arguably, the idea that development … European Union and a recipient country.

  7. If using the word is bad then they link because they said it.

  8. Voting neg reduces discussions of racism to censorship – undermines effective challenges to racism as a whole.
  Nadine Strossen, Prof. Law @ NYU, General Counsel to the ACLU, 1990 (“FRONTIERS OF LEGAL THOUGHT II THE NEW FIRST AMENDMENT: REGULATING RACIST SPEECH ON CAMPUS: A MODEST PROPOSAL?” 1990 Duke L.J. 484)
  There is a third reason why … that might follow from it. n395 [*561]
  AT: Politics

  EU collapse turns the impact

  UN cred solves – negotiates end to china war

  No war – China won’t risk it all and no flashpoints.
  Bremmer 10 [Ian, president of Eurasia Group and the author, most recently, of The End of the Free Market: Who Wins the War between States and Corporations?, Gathering Storm: America and China in 2020 July/August 2010 http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/articles/2010-JulyAugust/full-Bremmer-JA-2010.html] 

  In addition, Beijing has no … investment opportunities on the mainland.

  Their will pass evidence proves Obama doesn’t need to spend more political capital than he already has.

  GOP will block TAA – too expensive
  Bennett 9-15
  David Bennett associate editor for Delta Farm PressSep. 15, 2011 “Trio of Pending FTAs Likely to Pass Now?” CornandSoybeanDigest.com http://cornandsoybeandigest.com/issues/trio-pending-ftas-likely-pass-now
  Legislators in the House approved … votes on “clean” FTA bills. 

  Bipartisan opposition – union violence
  Carter 8-12
  Zach Carter 8/12/11 “Trade Deals Face Growing House Opposition Amid Continued Violence In Colombia (VIDEO)” Huffington Post http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/11/house-opposition-to-trade_n_924418.html
  On August 4, Senate leaders announced a "… enforce them amid widespread assassinations. 

  Disad proves Obama won’t spend PC on the plan because he’d want to push TAA first.

  Obama spending PC on taxes – pushing on monday
  AP, Today (9-18-2011) http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/story/2011-09-18/obama-tax-rate/50452182/1
  WASHINGTON (AP) – President Barack Obama is … overhaul of the U.S. tax code. 

  No evidence that Obama only … for TAA and nothing else

  Wont pass in south korea – opposition resistance
  Korea times 9-14
  Kang Hyun-kyung 09-14-2011 “Lee, Obama to hold summit in October” Korea Times http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2011/09/113_94739.html
  The free trade pact is … likely to be hit hardest. 

  FTAs can’t solve Doha or global trade
  Chicago Tribune, 9-17-11
  Even if Congress follows through … economic welfare could depend on it.

  • The UN is key to global trade
    Akyüz, 9 (Dr. Yilmaz Akyüz who is Special Economic Advisor, South Centre, THE ROLE OF  THE UNITED NATIONS IN GLOBAL ECONOMIC GOVERNANCE, Geneva, August 2009)
    Avoiding fragmentation and disintegration of … institutions or  international financial architecture.”

  FTAs kill trade regime
  Deiter ’05, Heribert Deiter, Senior Research Associate at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Berlin.2005  “The Limited Utility of Bilateralism Free Trade Agreements”, 2005, http://lutahamutuk.org/yahoo_site_admin1/assets/docs/The_Limited_Utility_of_Bilateral_Free_Trade_Agreement.7244933.pdf, DKreus
  The current wave of bilateral … , not complementing, the multilateral regime.

  Not intrinsic – logical policymaker would do the plan and 

  Political capital is irrelevant – studies prove.
  Dickinson 9 [Matthew, professor of political science at Middlebury College. Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power May 26, 2009 Presidential Power http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/05/26/sotamayor-obama-and-presidential-power/]
  What is of more interest … on in (or lack thereof).

  Voting no costs political capital

  SKFTA causes rising expectations – these kill the alliance and lead to ROK adventurism
  Lee and Kim 10
  Dong Sun Lee, assistant professor at the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Korea University & Sung Eun Kim, Research Fellow at the Asiatic Research Institute, January 2010, East Asia Institute, "Ties That Bind: Assessing the Impact of Economic Interdependence on East Asian Alliances" http://www.eai.or.kr/data/bbs/eng_report/201002251819214.pdf
  In the long run, however, … its long enduring security alliance. 

  ROK adventurism will escalate to nuclear conflict
  Raska 10
  Michael Raska, PhD Candidate Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, 11/26/10, “Why Can’t South Korea Retaliate?” http://www.spp.nus.edu.sg/OpEds_26Nov10_Michael_Raska.aspx
  South Korea’s security paradigm has … spillover into a broader regional crisis. 

  Assistance doesn’t cost PC
  McKelvey 9
  Tara McKelvey a senior editor at the Prospect, is a research fellow at NYU School of Law's Center on Law and Security December 7, 2009  “Is Democracy a Dirty Word?” The Prospect http://prospect.org/cs/articles?article=is_democracy_a_dirty_word
  Obama’s scaled-back approach to … establish democracies in other countries.

  Fiat solves – congress won’t backlash against what it votes for

  Doesn’t piss off the GOP
  Inboden 10
  William Inboden is a Distinguished Scholar at the Strauss Center for International Security and Law at the University of Texas-Austin and a Non-Resident Fellow with the German Marshall Fund 18 November 2010 “Across the aisle and across the Atlantic, a consensus on democracy” GMF http://blog.gmfus.org/2010/11/across-the-aisle-and-across-the-atlantic-a-consensus-on-democracy/
  Meanwhile, notwithstanding the fact that … to human rights and democracy.

  Spending PC on Libya now
  Phillips 11
  Christopher Phillips is a London-based writer and analyst. He currently finishing a PhD in International Relations at the London School of Economics where he specializes on Syria and Jordan 31/5/2011 “Obama and Britain: the expedient relationship” Aspen Institute Italia http://www.aspeninstitute.it/aspenia-online/article/obama-and-britain-expedient-relationship
  Then there is the military … a manner that was previously absent.

  d/a irrelevant because it doesn’t apply to the aff in all possible timeframes

  SKFTA causes rising expectations – these kill the alliance in the long term and lead to ROK adventurism in the short term
  Lee and Kim 10
  Dong Sun Lee, assistant professor at the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Korea University & Sung Eun Kim, Research Fellow at the Asiatic Research Institute, January 2010, East Asia Institute, "Ties That Bind: Assessing the Impact of Economic Interdependence on East Asian Alliances" http://www.eai.or.kr/data/bbs/eng_report/201002251819214.pdf
  In the long run, however, … its long enduring security alliance. 

  ROK adventurism will escalate to nuclear conflict
  Raska 10
  Michael Raska, PhD Candidate Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, 11/26/10, “Why Can’t South Korea Retaliate?” http://www.spp.nus.edu.sg/OpEds_26Nov10_Michael_Raska.aspx
  South Korea’s security paradigm has … spillover into a broader regional crisis. 

  
  
  

1AC Kentucky

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• AffContention 1: Inherency

   

  The United Nations authorized a support mission in Libya

  AP 9/16

  AP 9/16/11, lexis

  The resolution establishes a United Nations … not request any U.N. peacekeeping troops.

   

  But they still must solicit funding and support

  Better World Campaign 09

  Better World Campaign 3/3/09, “United Nations Peacekeeping: Promoting Stability around the World,” http://www.betterworldcampaign.org/assets/pdf/briefing-book/united-nations-peacekeeping.pdf

  Limited capacity: With every authorization … places like Darfur and Haiti.

   

  And the US is disengaging from Libya, which means limited funding for the UN mission 

  LA Times 11

  Los Angeles Times 9/1/11, lexis

  Despite signs of dangerous fractures … a postwar stabilization effort, if necessary.

   

  And there is no current plan for police training

  New York Times 9/4

  New York Times 9/4/11, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/04/world/middleeast/04libya.html

  TRIPOLI, Libya — Libya’s interim government … weapons when told to do so.

   

  Contention Two: Stability

   

  Speedy police training is key – Iraq and Afghanistan prove.

  Dobbins and Wehrey, RAND, 11       

  James Dobbins, director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at the RAND Corporation, and Frederic Wehrey, policy analyst @ RAND, 8/23/2011 (http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68227/james-dobbins-and-frederic-wehrey/libyan-nation-building-after-qaddafi?page=show#)

  Second, there are no Western … heavily in such an effort.

   

  Libyan instability causes nuclear war

  Stephen Lendman, 2011 (Stephen, Harvard BA, Wharton MBA, six years as a marketing research analyst, now writes on vital world and national topics, including war and peace, American imperialism, corporate dominance, political persecutions, and a range of other social, economic and political issues, 7/6, “Libya - Flashpoint For World Conflict”, http://www.rense.com/general94/libya.htm)

  Scott told Progressive Radio News … than WW I seemed in early 1914.

   

  Libyan instability causes right-wing resurgence in Europe

  CSM 9/1/2011 (http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/us-tries-firm-economic-relationship-libya?page=full)

  A politically stable Libya is … -immigrant political forces, she adds.

   

  Right-wing backlash will end the EU

  Macleans 11 (Kupchan = Georgetown IR professor)

  Macleans (Canadian weekly news magazine) 8/19/11, http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/08/19/states-of-disunion/

  The first signs of trouble … relevant to the global economy.”

   

  EU collapse causes nuclear war

  Dunnis 11

  James Dunnis, former Australian consul in East Timor who wrote the definitive book on East Timor’s history and UNTAET Expert on Crimes Against Humanity in East Timor, 8/16/11, “A financial storm gathers: one we can weather,” http://lawcrimepolitics.com/financial-storm-gathers-weather

  Most Europeans will never forget … be prevented at all cost

   

  Crisis in Italy will kill the global economy

  Zakaria 9/15

  Fareed Zakaria, Editor of Time Magazine, PhD from Harvard, 9/15/11, http://www.fareedzakaria.com/home/Articles/Entries/2011/9/15_How_China_can_help_Europe_get_out_of_debt.html

  The European crisis is no … be too big to bail.

   

  Euro disintegration causes global economic collapse

  The Economist 9/10

  The Economist 9/10/11, http://www.economist.com/node/21528629

  Barry Eichengreen, a monetary historian at … runs in other peripheral countries.

   

  Economic collapse causes global nuclear war

  Merlini, Senior Fellow – Brookings, 11

  [Cesare Merlini, nonresident senior fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe and chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Italian Institute for International Affairs (IAI) in Rome. He served as IAI president from 1979 to 2001. Until 2009, he also occupied the position of executive vice chairman of the Council for the United States and Italy, which he co-founded in 1983. His areas of expertise include transatlantic relations, European integration and nuclear non-proliferation, with particular focus on nuclear science and technology. A Post-Secular World?  DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2011.571015 Article Requests: Order Reprints : Request Permissions Published in: journal Survival, Volume 53, Issue 2 April 2011 , pages 117 - 130 Publication Frequency: 6 issues per year  Download PDF Download PDF (~357 KB)     View Related Articles  To cite this Article: Merlini, Cesare 'A Post-Secular World?', Survival, 53:2, 117 – 130]

  Two neatly opposed scenarios for … absolutes such as unbridled nationalism.

   

  US expertise key to stability

  William Bauer, Worked @ North African NGO, Middle East Studies Degree from Exeter, 8/21/2011 (http://www.policymic.com/article/show?id=1470)

  So, what is next for … guidance the U.S. has to offer.

   

  Aid decreases the probability of conflict

  Savun, Political Science Professor, and Tirone 11

  Burcu Savun, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Pittsburgh,, and Daniel C. Tirone is a Ph.D. Candidate in the Department of Political Science, University of Pittsburgh        American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 55, No. 2, April 2011, Pp. 233–246     Foreign Aid, Democratization, and Civil Conflict: How Does Democracy Aid Affect Civil Conflict? http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00501.x/pdf

  What is the substantive effect … as well as statistically significant.

   

  Contention Three: The United Nations

   

  The US is perceived as disengaging from the UN- this hinders multilateral leadership and cooperation

  Brimmer 9-7

  (Esther Brimmer, PHD in IR from Oxford, Assistant Secretary of State for International Organizations, Bureau of International Organization Affairs, Remarks at the U.S. Institute of Peace, Sustaining America's Global Leadership: U.S. Priorities at the United Nations, September 7, 2011, http://www.state.gov/p/io/rm/2011/171747.htm)

  So amid these calls for U.S. … than it has ever been.

   

  Failure to provide assistance in Libya creates tensions with the international community

  Bendery 8/25

  Jennifer Bendery, former correspondent for White House and Congressional leadership at Roll Call, 8/25/11, “Obama Unlikely To Sink Money Into Rebuilding Libya, Experts Say,” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/25/obama-rebuilding-libya_n_936852.html

  WASHINGTON -- At a time when the … or financial assistance, he said.

   

  Sustained commitment in Libya through the UN is key to effective international collaboration

  POMED citing Brimmer, PhD in IR from Oxford, 9/10

  ( Project on Middle East Democracy, a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization dedicated to examining how genuine democracies can develop in the Middle East and how the U.S. can best support that process, 9/10/2011, http://pomed.org/blog/2011/09/pomed-notes-usip-sustaining-americas-global-leadership-us-priorities-at-the-un.html/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+POMED_blog+%28Project+on+Middle+East+Democracy+Blog%29&utm_content=Google+Reader)

  With the context of global … in order to be effective.

   

  Libya is a key test case for multilateral institutions

  Danin, CFR, 11

  Robert Danin, Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies, CFR, 8/22/11, Council on Foreign Relations, “Post-Qaddafi Instability in Libya,” http://www.cfr.org/africa/post-qaddafi-instability-libya/p25693

  But Libya is also important … oil interest in that country.

   

  US commitment to post-conflict stability assistance in Libya boosts UN legitimacy

  Patrick, CFR, 11

  Stewart Patrick, Senior Fellow and Director, Program on International Institutions and Global Governance @ Council on Foreign Relations, 8/25/2011 (http://blogs.cfr.org/patrick/2011/08/25/un-peacekeeping-ready-for-libya/)

  Peacekeeping is an excellent deal … among their own international obligations.

   

  US credibility is key to an effective UN

  Margon and Norris 11 (Sarah Margon, Associate Director of the Sustainable Security and Peacebuilding Initiative at the Center for American Progress, and John Norris, executive director of the Sustainable Security program at the Center for American Progress, April 2011, Withdrawing from the United Nations:A Misguided Assault, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/04/pdf/un_report.pdf)

  The United Nations enhances our … and in providing humanitarian assistance.

   

  US credibility within multilateral institutions is key to global stability

  Stewart Patrick, Senior Fellow and Director, Program on International Institutions and Global Governance @ Council on Foreign Relations, 6/3/2011 (http://blogs.cfr.org/patrick/2011/06/03/summer-reading-ikenberry%E2%80%99s-liberal-leviathan/)

  You can find that argument … harder to manage world order.

   

  Institutions are key for global cooperation- coalitions of the willing are ineffective

  Brooks and Wohlforth-Dartmouth Professors- 9

  (Stephen Brooks and William Wohlforth, Government Professors at Dartmouth College,March/April 2009,  Reshaping the World Order)

  Even a ruthlessly self-interested United … its behavior in a given institution.

   

  US leadership in the UN prevents war, climate change, and disease

  Brimmer 9-7

  (Esther Brimmer, Assistant Secretary, Bureau of International Organization Affairs, Remarks at the U.S. Institute of Peace, Sustaining America's Global Leadership: U.S. Priorities at the United Nations, September 7, 2011, http://www.state.gov/p/io/rm/2011/171747.htm)

  Here in the United States, … at the United Nations works.

   

  HIV destroys immunity- enables opportunistic diseases

  NewsDay 1

  (NEWSDAY 5-31-2001 (http://www.aegis.com/news/NEWSDAY/2001/ND010505.html))

  Today, with the AIDS epidemic 20 … viruses and farm animal parasites.

   

  Extinction

  Zimmerman 96

  (ZIMMERMAN AND ZIMMERMAN 1996 (Barry and David, both have M.S. degrees from Long Island University, Killer Germs p 132)

  Then came AIDS…and … Matrix, by Robin Marantz Hening.

   

  Failure to slow the rate of warming results in extinction- environmental collapse

  Atcheson 4

  (John, Geologist at several federal agencies, Baltimore Sun, “Ticking time bomb”, 12-15, L/N)

  The Arctic Council's recent report … . We have to act now.

   

   

   

  Contention Four: China

   

  China fears unilateral action in Libya – perceived as resource containment

  Telegraph, 9/7/2011 (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8734312/Libya-China-warns-West-to-let-UN-lead-reconstruction.html)

  Libya: China warns West to let UN lead reconstruction

  China's top official newspaper warned … between his government and rebels.

   

  Perceived resource containment causes war – more important than Taiwan.

  Hatemi, Professor at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 2K7 (Peter, “Oil and Conflict in Sino-American Relations,” China Security, Summer, Volume 3, Number 3)

  As China’s petroleum consumption increases … more serious geo-strategic conflict.

   

  Escalates to World War III

  Amanda R. Bertana, Masters in Sociology @ Humboldt State University, May 2011 (“HEGEMONIC RIVALRY: CHINA’S SCRAMBLE FOR OIL” Master’s Thesis. http://humboldt-dspace.calstate.edu/xmlui/bitstream/handle/2148/718/Formatted%20thesis.pdf?sequence=2)

  The question that arises from … that may result in war.

   

  Conflict is particularly likely over MENA

  Alterman, ‘11

  Jon B. Alterman, director and senior fellow of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, ‘11 (“The Vital Triangle,” n “China And The Persian Gulf: Implications for the United States,” Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, http://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/china-and-the-persian-gulf-0)

  There is little question that … are not hard to imagine.

   

  Missteps escalate to nuclear war- deterrence doesn’t check.

  Johnson, 2001 (Chalmers, President of Japan Policy Research Institute, The Nation, 5/14, l/n)

  China is another matter. No … have virtually no deterrent effect.

   

  Acting through the UN assuages Chinese fears- it gives the sign that the US is forgoing a “WESTERN” approach to Libya

  La Stampa 11

  La Stampa 8/30/11, BBC Monitoring Europe – Political, lexis

  New York: The United States, … the situation on the ground".

   

  Acting through the UN shows that the US is forgoing unilateral intervention

  Yan and Yangpeng 9-19

  (Wang Yan and Zheng Yangpeng, China Daily, 9-19-11, 'Give UN big role' in Libya rebuilding)

  BEIJING - China will be among … way to other international organizations.

   

  US leadership through the UN shows China its commitment to cooperation

  Zhong Sheng, People’s Daily Online, 9/2/2011 (http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90780/91343/7587414.html)

  It is a responsible measure to … Nations in post-war Libya.

                                                                                                                                                        

   

  The United States federal government should make available the type of police training provided by the International Criminal Investigation Training Assistance Program to the United Nations for Libya.

   

  Contention Five: Solvency

   

  The US can earmark funds to the UN

  Schaefer 10

  Brett D. Schaefer, Fellow in International Regulatory Affairs at Heritage's Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom, 2/3/10, “Time to Rein in the U.N.'s Budget,” http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2010/02/time-to-rein-in-the-uns-budget

  Extrabudgetary Resources. This obfuscation of … /data/reports /2007/en2007_01.pdf (January 20, 2010).

   

  Democracy assistance can go through international institutions

  Lappin 10

  Richard Lappin, participant in democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE, and Carter Center, University of Belgrade political sciences visiting scholar, Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, 10, Volume 4 Issue 1, ―What we talk about when we talk about democracy assistance: the problem of definition in post-conflict approaches to democratization‖ http://www.cejiss.org/issue/2010-volume-4-issue-1/lappin, p.187-8, accessed 5-16-11

  Democracy assistance can be most … , media groups and political parties.   

   

   

   

   

   

   

  
  
• 
  
  

AT: UN Not T

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• 1. Its means associated with – control is not required

  Collin English Dictionary ’98  p 817

    Its – of, belong to, or … assoiciated in some way with it.”

   

  2. State Department considers aid through the UN “its assistance”

  Department of State   1       Department of State  Bureau of Political-Military Affairs  Released November 2001

  TO WALK THE EARTH IN SAFETY The United States Commitment to Humanitarian Demining  Department of State Publication 10889  

  The United States provides its … ) Trust ($1.1 million for mine clearance).

   

  3. The Us controls the aid because its earmarked  

  Schaefer 10

  Brett D. Schaefer, Fellow in International Regulatory Affairs at Heritage's Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom, 2/3/10, “Time to Rein in the U.N.'s Budget,” http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2010/02/time-to-rein-in-the-uns-budget

  Extrabudgetary Resources. This obfuscation of … /data/reports /2007/en2007_01.pdf (January 20, 2010).

   

  4. The topic says FOR not TO- the plan must be intended for Libya

  Dictionary.com     

  For

  1.with the object or … purpose of: to run for exercise.

  2. intended to belong to, or be used in connection with: equipment for the army; a closet for dishes.

   

   

  5. Democracy assistance is usually through organizations—including IGOs –not  government to government (in 1ac)

  Lappin 10. Richard Lappin, Ph.D. candidate, Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies, University of Leuven (Belgium); has participated in over a dozen democracy assistane missions for the UN, EU, OSCE, and Carter Center and has recently completed assignments in Sierra Leone, Lebanon, and Romania, Currentlym visiting Scholar at the Faculty of Political Science at the University of Belgrade,                      2010  What We Talk ABout When We Talk ABout Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation,

  http://www.cejiss.org/issue/2010-volume-4-issue-1/lappin

  Democracy assistance can be most … , media groups and political parties.

   

   

  6. overlimits- most aid goes through intermediaries- (optional)

  Newberg  96   Paula R. Newberg and Thomas Carothers, senior associates at the CarnegieE ndowment for International Peace  World Policy Journal, Vol. 13, No. 1 (Spring, 1996)  Aiding--and Defining: Democracy   http://www.jstor.org/stable/40209465

  The first problem concerns the … of the overall U.S. assistance effort.

   

   

   

   

   

   

  
  
• 
  
  

Egypt 1AC - Harvard

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

•  

   

  Contention One: Stability

   

  Egypt needs assistance for economic reform – governments have pledged support but it hasn’t arrived

  Jerusalem Post 11

  Jerusalem Post 9/13/11, lexis

  The latest package of aid … by Western and Arab governments.

   

  Corruption will cause cycles of instability in Egypt – reform is key

  Schuman 11

  Michael Schuman, American author and journalist who specializes in Asian economics, politics and history. He is currently the Asia business correspondent for TIME Magazine, based in Hong Kong, “Why the Arab Spring's success depends on jobs, not guns,” 8/22/11, http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/08/22/why-the-arab-spring%e2%80%99s-success-depends-on-jobs-not-guns/#ixzz1XVK2xUzZ

  But to make that optimistic … fail on its economic policies.

   

  Economics is the largest contributor to instability

  Allen 11

  Michael Allen, Special Assistant for Government Relations and Public Affairs at the National Endowment for Democracy and former lecturing faculty of faculty of universities in London and Manchester, and Cranfield School of Management, “Deteriorating economy a greater threat than military to Egypt’s transition,” 9/16/11, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/09/deteriorating-economy-a-greater-threat-than-military-to-egypts-transition/

  “We hope the law … of democracy or political reform (19%).

   

  Economic crisis in Egypt produces a global double-dip recession

  Michael Schuman, M.A. in International Affairs from Columbia, has corresponded for Forbes, TIME, and WSJ, 2/2/2011 (http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/02/02/does-the-turmoil-in-egypt-threaten-the-global-recovery/#ixzz1TT6k4O6d)

  At first glance, the upheaval … just such an unwelcome surprise.

   

  Economic collapse causes global nuclear war

  Merlini, Senior Fellow – Brookings, 11

  [Cesare Merlini, nonresident senior fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe and chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Italian Institute for International Affairs (IAI) in Rome. He served as IAI president from 1979 to 2001. Until 2009, he also occupied the position of executive vice chairman of the Council for the United States and Italy, which he co-founded in 1983. His areas of expertise include transatlantic relations, European integration and nuclear non-proliferation, with particular focus on nuclear science and technology. A Post-Secular World?  DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2011.571015 Article Requests: Order Reprints : Request Permissions Published in: journal Survival, Volume 53, Issue 2 April 2011 , pages 117 - 130 Publication Frequency: 6 issues per year  Download PDF Download PDF (~357 KB)     View Related Articles  To cite this Article: Merlini, Cesare 'A Post-Secular World?', Survival, 53:2, 117 – 130]

  Two neatly opposed scenarios for … absolutes such as unbridled nationalism.

   

  Egyptian instability causes wildfire prolif throughout the Middle East

  Sokolski 11

  Henry Sokolski, executive director of The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center and former Deputy for Nonproliferation Policy in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, 2/8/11, “The New Republic: Revolts Stir Up Nuclear Sentiment,” The New Republic (also published by NPR), http://www.npr.org/2011/02/08/133588036/the-new-republic-revolts-could-fuel-nuclear-desires

  Even more dangerously, unlike Iraq, … a condition for securing U.S. nuclear cooperation.

   

  Egypt is the cornerstone of global nonproliferation

  Cirincione 11

  Joe Cirincione, former director for non-proliferation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, professor of foreign service at Georgetown, 2/13/11, “Egypt's Nuclear Dimension,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/joe-cirincione/egypts-nuclear-dimension_b_822588.html

  As a free Egypt transforms itself, … ties with the United States.

   

  Middle Eastern prolif is uniquely destabilizing.

  Inbar 8

  Efraim Inbar, Ph.D., Professor in Political Studies at Bar-Ilan University and Director of its Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, 4-17-2008. [MESH, Iran and extended deterrence, http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/mesh/2008/04/iran_and_extended_deterrence/]

  If Iran is allowed to … put Ahmedinejad in a positive light.

   

  Prolif causes extinction – small crises go nuclear.

  Sokolski, executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, serves on the U.S. congressional Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism, ‘9 (Henry, Avoiding a Nuclear Crowd, Policy Review June & July, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/46390537.html)

  At a minimum, such developments will … their critics, would ever want. 

   

  Reform key to the Egyptian economy

  Daily News 11

  The Daily News Egypt 7/26/11, http://thedailynewsegypt.com/economy/egypt-must-foster-private-investment-report-suggests.html

  CAIRO: Egypt must focus on … operating in the formal sector.

   

  Assistance for reform spurs foreign investment and stabilizes Egypt

  Daily News 11

  The Daily News Egypt 7/26/11, http://thedailynewsegypt.com/economy/egypt-must-foster-private-investment-report-suggests.html

  Egyptians would also benefit from … a turbulent region,” the report said.

   

  Specifically, US assistance for customs reform is key to the Egyptian economy

  Schott and Kotschwar 11

  Jeffrey J. Schott, senior fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics, former professor at Georgetown and official at the Treasury Department, and Barbara Kotschwar, economics professor, Georgetown, 2/4/11, “What the United States Can Do to Help a Post-Mubarak Egypt,” http://www.piie.com/realtime/?p=2003

  Whoever emerges on top of … and communications technology (ICT) sector.

   

  US assistance and leadership is key to successful reform

  Habibi 11

  Nader Habibi, professor of economics of the Middle East in Brandeis University's Crown Center for Middle East Studies, 4/18/11, “Structuring Economic Assistance for Egypt and Tunisia,” http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8549/structuring-economic-assistance-for-egypt-and-tunisia

  As Egypt and Tunisia move … chances for a successful democaratic transition.

   

  Contention Two: Economic Partnership

   

  Technical assistance to streamline customs regulations is key to US-Egyptian trade

  Schott and Kotschwar 10

  Jeffrey J. Schott, senior fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics, former professor at Georgetown and official at the Treasury Department, and Barbara Kotschwar, economics professor, Georgetown, 1/10, “Reengaging Egypt: Options for US-Egypt Economic Relations,” http://bookstore.piie.com/book-store/4396.html

  One important component of international … and improve their customs facilities.

   

  Assistance for transparency and customs reform is key to economic relations and paves the way to an FTA

  Schott and Kotschwar 10

  Jeffrey J. Schott, senior fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics, former professor at Georgetown and official at the Treasury Department, and Barbara Kotschwar, economics professor, Georgetown, 1/10, “Reengaging Egypt: Options for US-Egypt Economic Relations,” http://bookstore.piie.com/book-store/4396.html

  The United States has a strong … —and set out some suggestions.

   

  Assistance for reforms is key – otherwise an FTA will backfire

  Galal and Lawrence 05

  Ahmed Galal, Managing Director of the Economic Research Forum, a regional research institution covering the Arab countries, PhD in economics, Boston U., and former World Bank economist, and Robert Lawrence, 5/05,   Anchoring Reform with a US-Egypt Free Trade Agreement, http://bookstore.piie.com/book-store/3683.html

  It is clear from even … ; other times, it just hurts. 

   

  US/Egypt FTA solves Middle East war

  Galal and Lawrence 03

  Ahmed Galal, Managing Director of the Economic Research Forum, a regional research institution covering the Arab countries, PhD in economics, Boston U., and former World Bank economist, and Robert Lawrence, 7/03, “Egypt-US and Morocco-US Free Trade Agreements,” Egyptian Center for Economic Studies, Working Paper No. 87, http://www.cgdev.org/doc/event%20docs/10.23.03%20GDN%20Conf/galal%20-%20Egypt-US%20and%20Morocco-US%20Free%20Trade%20Agreements.pdf

  The starting point is the … region may have followed suit.

   

  US/Egypt economic partnership can revive peace talks

  Schott and Kotschwar 10

  Jeffrey J. Schott, senior fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics, former professor at Georgetown and official at the Treasury Department, and Barbara Kotschwar, economics professor, Georgetown, 1/10, “Reengaging Egypt: Options for US-Egypt Economic Relations,” http://bookstore.piie.com/book-store/4396.html

  The success of any US … policy in the Middle East.

   

  Middle East conflict escalates and goes nuclear

  Russell 09

  James A. Russell, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East,” Institut Français des Relations Internationales, Spring 2009, http://www.analyst-network.com/articles/141/StrategicStabilityReconsideredProspectsforEscalationandNuclearWarintheMiddleEast.pdf

  Strategic stability in the region … risk for the entire world.

   

  US/Egypt economic partnership is key to broader economic and trade ties in the Middle East

  Schott and Kotschwar 10

  Jeffrey J. Schott, senior fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics, former professor at Georgetown and official at the Treasury Department, and Barbara Kotschwar, economics professor, Georgetown, 1/10, “Reengaging Egypt: Options for US-Egypt Economic Relations,” http://bookstore.piie.com/book-store/4396.html

  Revitalizing US-Egypt economic relations would … partnership in the MENA region.

   

  US/Middle East economic ties are key to preserve the petrodollar

  Freeman 07

  Chas. W. Freeman, Jr., former U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, 8/21/07, “U.S. Foreign Policy and the Arab World (Part II),” The Globalist, http://www.theglobalist.com/storyid.aspx?StoryId=6314

  Fifth, we Americans have a major … commodity markets would be profound.

   

  Petrodollar key to heg

  Looney 07

  Robert Looney, economics professor, Naval Postgraduate School, March-April 07, “The Iranian Oil Bourse A Threat to Dollar Supremacy?” Challenge, http://faculty.nps.edu/relooney/Rel-Challenge-07.pdf

  In sum, proponents of the … the country’s military/economic power.

   

  Heg key to prevent nuclear war

  Khalilzad 11 [Zalmay, was the United States ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, and the United Nations during the presidency of George W. Bush and the director of policy planning at the Defense Department from 1990 to 1992. FEBRUARY 8, 2011 4:00 A.M. The Economy and National Security http://www.conservativesforamerica.com/national-review/the-economy-and-national-security]

   

  We face this domestic challenge … facing Chinese hegemony and aggression.

   

  Assistance for reform is key to solve climate change

  Schott and Kotschwar 10

  Jeffrey J. Schott, senior fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics, former professor at Georgetown and official at the Treasury Department, and Barbara Kotschwar, economics professor, Georgetown, 1/10, “Reengaging Egypt: Options for US-Egypt Economic Relations,” http://bookstore.piie.com/book-store/4396.html

  The US-Egypt Strategic Economic Partnership … shared challenge of climate change.

   

  Failure to slow the rate of warming results in extinction- environmental collapse

  Atcheson 4

  (John, Geologist at several federal agencies, Baltimore Sun, “Ticking time bomb”, 12-15, L/N)

  The Arctic Council's recent report … . We have to act now.

   

  Warming is real and anthropogenic – thousands of independent studies prove.

  Stefan Rahmstorf, Professor of Physics @ Potsdam University, Member of the German Advisory Council on Climate Change, ‘8

  (Global Warming: Looking Beyond Kyoto, ed. Ernesto Zedillo, Prof. IR @ Yale, p. 42-49)

  It is time to turn to statement B: human activities are altering the climate. This can be broken into two parts. The first is as follows: global climate is warming. This is by now a generally undisputed point (except by novelist Michael Crichton), so we deal with it only briefly. The two leading compilations of data measured with thermometers are shown in figure 3-3, that of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and that of the British Hadley Centre for Climate Change. Although they differ in the details, due to the inclusion of different data sets and use of different spatial averaging and quality control procedures, they both show a consistent picture, with a global mean warming of 0.8°C since the late nineteenth century.  Temperatures over the past ten years clearly were the warmest since measured records have been available. The year 1998 sticks out well above the longterm trend due to the occurrence of a major El Nino event that year (the last El Nino so far and one of the strongest on record). These events are examples of the largest natural climate variations on multiyear time scales and, by releasing heat from the ocean, generally cause positive anomalies in global mean temperature. It is remarkable that the year 2005 rivaled the heat of 1998 even though no El Nino event occurred that year. (A bizarre curiosity, perhaps worth mentioning, is that several prominent "climate skeptics" recently used the extreme year 1998 to claim in the media that global warming had ended. In Lindzen's words, "Indeed, the absence of any record breakers during the past seven years is statistical evidence that temperatures are not increasing.")33  In addition to the surface measurements, the more recent portion of the global warming trend (since 1979) is also documented by satellite data. It is not straightforward to derive a reliable surface temperature trend from satellites, as they measure radiation coming from throughout the atmosphere (not just near the surface), including the stratosphere, which has strongly cooled, and the records are not homogeneous' due to the short life span of individual satellites, the problem of orbital decay, observations at different times of day, and drifts in instrument calibration.' Current analyses of these satellite data show trends that are fully consistent with surface measurements and model simulations."  If no reliable temperature measurements existed, could we be sure that the climate is warming? The "canaries in the coal mine" of climate change (as glaciologist Lonnie Thompson puts it) ~are mountain glaciers. We know, both from old photographs and from the position of the terminal moraines heaped up by the flowing ice, that mountain glaciers have been in retreat all over the world during the past century. There are precious few exceptions, and they are associated with a strong increase in precipitation or local cooling.36 I have inspected examples of shrinking glaciers myself in field trips to Switzerland, Norway, and New Zealand. As glaciers respond sensitively to temperature changes, data on the extent of glaciers have been used to reconstruct a history of Northern Hemisphere temperature over the past four centuries (see figure 3-4). Cores drilled in tropical glaciers show signs of recent melting that is unprecedented at least throughout the Holocene-the past 10,000 years. Another powerful sign of warming, visible clearly from satellites, is the shrinking Arctic sea ice cover (figure 3-5), which has declined 20 percent since satellite observations began in 1979. While climate clearly became warmer in the twentieth century, much discussion particularly in the popular media has focused on the question of how "unusual" this warming is in a longer-term context. While this is an interesting question, it has often been mixed incorrectly with the question of causation. Scientifically, how unusual recent warming is-say, compared to the past millennium-in itself contains little information about its cause. Even a highly unusual warming could have a natural cause (for example, an exceptional increase in solar activity). And even a warming within the bounds of past natural variations could have a predominantly anthropogenic cause. I come to the question of causation shortly, after briefly visiting the evidence for past natural climate variations.  Records from the time before systematic temperature measurements were collected are based on "proxy data," coming from tree rings, ice cores, corals, and other sources. These proxy data are generally linked to local temperatures in some way, but they may be influenced by other parameters as well (for example, precipitation), they may have a seasonal bias (for example, the growth season for tree rings), and high-quality long records are difficult to obtain and therefore few in number and geographic coverage. Therefore, there is still substantial uncertainty in the evolution of past global or hemispheric temperatures. (Comparing only local or regional temperature; as in Europe, is of limited value for our purposes,' as regional variations can be much larger than global ones and can have many regional causes, unrelated to global-scale forcing and climate change.)  The first quantitative reconstruction for the Northern Hemisphere temperature of the past millennium, including an error estimation, was presented by Mann, Bradley, and Hughes and rightly highlighted in the 2001 IPCC report as one of the major new findings since its 1995 report; it is shown in figure 3_6.39 The analysis suggests that, despite the large error bars, twentieth-century warming is indeed highly unusual and probably was unprecedented during the past millennium. This result, presumably because of its symbolic power, has attracted much criticism, to some extent in scientific journals, but even more so in the popular media. The hockey stick-shaped curve became a symbol for the IPCC, .and criticizing this particular data analysis became an avenue for some to question the credibility of the IPCC.  Three important things have been overlooked in much of the media coverage. First, even if the scientific critics had been right, this would not have called into question the very cautious conclusion drawn by the IPCC from the reconstruction by Mann, Bradley, and Hughes: "New analyses of proxy data for the Northern Hemisphere indicate that the increase in temperature in the twentieth century is likely to have been the largest of any century during the past 1,000 years." This conclusion has since been supported further by every single one of close to a dozen new reconstructions (two of which are shown in figure 3-6).Second, by far the most serious scientific criticism raised against Mann, Hughes, and Bradley was simply based on a mistake. 40 The prominent paper of von Storch and others, which claimed (based on a model test) that the method of Mann, Bradley, and Hughes systematically underestimated variability, "was [itself] based on incorrect implementation of the reconstruction procedure."41 With correct implementation, climate field reconstruction procedures such as the one used by Mann, Bradley, and Hughes have been shown to perform well in similar model tests. Third, whether their reconstruction is accurate or not has no bearing on policy. If their analysis underestimated past natural climate variability, this would certainly not argue for a smaller climate sensitivity and thus a lesser concern about the consequences of our emissions. Some have argued that, in contrast, it would point to a larger climate sensitivity. While this is a valid point in principle, it does not apply in practice to the climate sensitivity estimates discussed herein or to the range given by IPCC, since these did not use the reconstruction of Mann, Hughes, and Bradley or any other proxy records of the past millennium. Media claims that "a pillar of the Kyoto Protocol" had been called into question were therefore misinformed. As an aside, the protocol was agreed in 1997, before the reconstruction in question even existed. The overheated public debate on this topic has, at least, helped to attract more researchers and funding to this area of paleoclimatology; its methodology has advanced significantly, and a number of new reconstructions have been presented in recent years. While the science has moved forward, the first seminal reconstruction by Mann, Hughes, and Bradley has held up remarkably well, with its main features reproduced by more recent work. Further progress probably will require substantial amounts of new proxy data, rather than further refinement of the statistical techniques pioneered by Mann, Hughes, and Bradley.Developing these data sets will require time and substantial effort.  It is time to address the final statement: most of the observed warming over the past fifty years is anthropogenic. A large number of studies exist that have taken different approaches to analyze this issue, which is generally called the "attribution problem." I do not discuss the exact share of the anthropogenic contribution (although this is an interesting question). By "most" I imply mean "more than 50 percent.” The first and crucial piece of evidence is, of course, that the magnitude of the warming is what is expected from the anthropogenic perturbation of the radiation balance, so anthropogenic forcing is able to explain all of the temperature rise. As discussed here, the rise in greenhouse gases alone corresponds to 2.6 W/tn2 of forcing. This by itself, after subtraction of the observed 0'.6 W/m2 of ocean heat uptake, would Cause 1.6°C of warming since preindustrial times for medium climate sensitivity (3"C). With a current "best guess'; aerosol forcing of 1 W/m2, the expected warming is O.8°c. The point here is not that it is possible to obtain the 'exact observed number-this is fortuitous because the amount of aerosol' forcing is still very' uncertain-but that the expected magnitude is roughly right. There can be little doubt that the anthropogenic forcing is large enough to explain most of the warming. Depending on aerosol forcing and climate sensitivity, it could explain a large fraction of the warming, or all of it, or even more warming than has been observed (leaving room for natural processes to counteract some of the warming).  The second important piece of evidence is clear: there is no viable alternative explanation. In the scientific literature, no serious alternative hypothesis has been proposed to explain the observed global warming. Other possible causes, such as solar activity, volcanic activity, cosmic rays, or orbital cycles, are well observed, but they do not show trends capable of explaining the observed warming. Since 1978, solar irradiance has been measured directly from satellites and shows the well-known eleven-year solar cycle, but no trend. There are various estimates of solar variability before this time, based on sunspot numbers, solar cycle length, the geomagnetic AA index, neutron monitor data, and, carbon-14 data. These indicate that solar activity probably increased somewhat up to 1940. While there is disagreement about the variation in previous centuries, different authors agree that solar activity did not significantly increase during the last sixty-five years. Therefore, this cannot explain the warming, and neither can any of the other factors mentioned. Models driven by natural factors only, leaving the anthropogenic forcing aside, show a cooling in the second half of the twentieth century (for an example, See figure 2-2, panel a, in chapter 2 of this volume). The trend in the sum of natural forcings is downward.The only way out would be either some as yet undiscovered unknown forcing or a warming trend that arises by chance from an unforced internal variability in the climate system. The latter cannot be completely ruled out, but has to be considered highly unlikely. No evidence in the observed record, proxy data, or current models suggest that such internal variability could cause a sustained trend of global warming of the observed magnitude. As discussed, twentieth century warming is unprecedented over the past 1,000 years (or even 2,000 years, as the few longer reconstructions available now suggest), which does not 'support the idea of large internal fluctuations. Also, those past variations correlate well with past forcing (solar variability, volcanic activity) and thus appear to be largely forced rather than due to unforced internal variability." And indeed, it would be difficult for a large and sustained unforced variability to satisfy the fundamental physical law of energy conservation. Natural internal variability generally shifts heat around different parts of the climate system-for example, the large El Nino event of 1998, which warmed, the atmosphere by releasing heat stored in the ocean. This mechanism implies that the ocean heat content drops as the atmosphere warms. For past decades, as discussed, we observed the atmosphere warming and the ocean heat content increasing, which rules out heat release from the ocean as a cause of surface warming. The heat content of the whole climate system is increasing, and there is no plausible source of this heat other than the heat trapped by greenhouse gases. '  A completely different approach to attribution is to analyze the spatial patterns of climate change. This is done in so-called fingerprint studies, which associate particular patterns or "fingerprints" with different forcings. It is plausible that the pattern of a solar-forced climate change differs from the pattern of a change caused by greenhouse gases. For example, a characteristic of greenhouse gases is that heat is trapped closer to the Earth's surface and that, unlike solar variability, greenhouse gases tend to warm more in winter, and at night. Such studies have used different data sets and have been performed by different groups of researchers with different statistical methods. They consistently conclude that the observed spatial pattern of warming can only be explained by greenhouse gases.49 Overall, it has to be considered, highly likely' that the observed warming is indeed predominantly due to the human-caused increase in greenhouse gases. '  This paper discussed the evidence for the anthropogenic increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration and the effect of CO2 on climate, finding that this anthropogenic increase is proven beyond reasonable doubt and that a mass of evidence points to a CO2 effect on climate of 3C ± 1.59C global-warming for a doubling of concentration. (This is, the classic IPCC range; my personal assessment is that, in-the light of new studies since the IPCC Third Assessment Report, the uncertainty range can now be narrowed somewhat to 3°C ± 1.0C) This is based on consistent results from theory, models, and data analysis, and, even in the absence-of any computer models, the same result would still hold based on physics and on data from climate history alone. Considering the plethora of consistent evidence, the chance that these conclusions are wrong has to be considered minute.  If the preceding is accepted, then it follows logically and incontrovertibly that a further increase in CO2 concentration will lead to further warming. The magnitude of our emissions depends on human behavior, but the climatic response to various emissions scenarios can be computed from the information presented here. The result is the famous range of future global temperature scenarios shown in figure 3_6.50  Two additional steps are involved in these computations: the consideration of anthropogenic forcings other than CO2 (for example, other greenhouse gases and aerosols) and the computation of concentrations from the emissions. Other gases are not discussed here, although they are important to get quantitatively accurate results. CO2 is the largest and most important forcing. Concerning concentrations, the scenarios shown basically assume that ocean and biosphere take up a similar share of our emitted CO2 as in the past. This could turn out to be an optimistic assumption; some models indicate the possibility of a positive feedback, with the biosphere turning into a carbon source rather than a sink under growing climatic stress. It is clear that even in the more optimistic of the shown (non-mitigation) scenarios, global temperature would rise by 2-3°C above its preindustrial level by the end of this century. Even for a paleoclimatologist like myself, this is an extraordinarily high temperature, which is very likely unprecedented in at least the past 100,000 years. As far as the data show, we would have to go back about 3 million years, to the Pliocene, for comparable temperatures. The rate of this warming (which is important for the ability of ecosystems to cope) is also highly unusual and unprecedented probably for an even longer time. The last major global warming trend occurred when the last great Ice Age ended between 15,000 and 10,000 years ago: this was a warming of about 5°C over 5,000 years, that is, a rate of only 0.1 °C per century. 52  The expected magnitude and rate of planetary warming is highly likely to come with major risk and impacts in terms of sea level rise (Pliocene sea level was 25-35 meters higher than now due to smaller Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets), extreme events (for example, hurricane activity is expected to increase in a warmer climate), and ecosystem loss.   The second part of this paper examined the evidence for the current warming of the planet and discussed what is known about its causes. This part showed that global warming is already a measured and-well-established fact, not a theory. Many different lines of evidence consistently show that most of the observed warming of the past fifty years was caused by human activity. Above all, this warming is exactly what would be expected given the anthropogenic rise in greenhouse gases, and no viable alternative explanation for this warming has been proposed in the scientific literature.  Taken together., the very strong evidence accumulated from thousands of independent studies, has over the past decades convinced virtually every climatologist around the world (many of whom were initially quite skeptical, including myself) that anthropogenic global warming is a reality with which we need to deal.

   

  Plan:

   

  THE UNITED STATES FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD OFFER ASSISTANCE FOR ANTI-CORRUPTION REFORM FOR EGYPT, INCLUDING IN THE CUSTOMS SECTOR

   

  Contention Three: Solvency

   

  Egypt will say yes to transparency assistance

  Carnegie Endowment 11

  Legatum Institute and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in association with the Atlantic Council, 7/11, “EGYPT’S DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION FIVE IMPORTANT MYTHS ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE,” http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/07/21/egypt-s-democratic-transition-five-important-myths-about-economy-and-international-assistance/41ca#

  Continuation of certain reform programmes … in a short period of time.

   

  Democracy assistance is defined by rule of law, civil society, elections, and governance. Anti-corruption assistance falls under governance

  McMahon 02

  Edward McMahon, Director, Center on Democratic Performance Department of Political Science, Binghamton University, 8/29/02, “The Impact of U.S. Democracy and Governance Assistance in Africa: Benin Case Study,” http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PCAAB068.pdf

  U.S. Democracy Assistance Donor agencies … improve their institutions and processes.

   

  USAID anti-corruption assistance includes customs reform and tariffs

  Dininio and Kpundeh 99

  Phyllis Dininio, anti-corruption specialist with the Center for Democracy and Governance, Ph.D. in political science from Yale, and Sahr John Kpundeh, consultant with experience in governance and anti-corruption issues, Ph.D. from Howard University, 2/99, “A HANDBOOK ON FIGHTING CORRUPTION,” Technical Publication Series, Center for Democracy and Governance, Bureau for Global Programs, Field Support, and Research, U.S. Agency for International Development,

  For example, significant corruption in … some combination of these measures.

   

   

   

   

   

   

   

  
  
• 
  
  

Round Deports

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• Aff: Dartmouth ER

  Round # 5  Tournament: Shirley

  vs: Georgetown DE

  Judge: Chris Lundberg

   

   

  Plan Text: no changes

   

   

  1ac Advantages: stability, economic partnership

   

   

  2ac Offense: none

   

   

  1ar Strategy: kicked prolif

   

   

  2ar Strategy: perm do both on advantage CP

   

  Aff: Dartmouth ER

  Round #4   Tournament: Shirley

  vs: Georgia LL

  Judge: Aaron Hardy

   

  Plan Text

   

  sAME

   

  1ac Advantages

   

  Same

   

  2ac Offense

   

  CPs based on T Illigit

   

  Intl CPs are a voter

   

  Add-Ons

   

  Goodwill k2 Trade

   

  Plan k2 Relations

   

  1ar Strategy

   

  “We solve SCAF, Make aid more efficiently go to the military”

   

  Link differential is zero sum, it either exist or it doesn’t

   

  CP doesn’t solve Partnership/FTA Adv

   

  Case O/ws

   

   

  2ar Strategy

   

  Defense on the Disad, Case O/Ws

  
  
• 
  
  

Bahrain K Aff

• Tournament: Fullerton | Round: 3 | Opponent: Emporia WW | Judge: Calum
  
  

• //
  
  
  ////
  
  
  //1AC

   

  Over the last year the cycles of rebellion and repression in Bahrain have been fierce and violent. The enabling force for brutality is the US military’s Fifth Fleet, a symbol of imperialism that makes possible the control of the Bahraini royal family

  Jones (assistant professor of history at Rutgers University) 11

  (Toby C., Time to Disband the Bahrain-Based U.S. Fifth Fleet, Jun 10 2011, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/-2011/06/time-to-disband-the-bahrain-based-us-fifth-fleet/240243/1/?single_page=true)

   

  Over the last few ….. is at the heart of Saudi and Bahraini responses to events at home and abroad.

   

  The US support for the Bahrani regime stifles the possibility of genuine, independent democracy. The US refusal to act is based on an imperial desire for power projection, an Orientalist fear of Iran and a geopolitical desire for “stability” over the freedom of the people

  Winegard 11

  (Ben, Understanding Bahrain: How Bahrain Shines a Light on Imperial Policies, http://dissidentvoice.org/2011/03/understanding-bahrain-how-bahrain-shines-a-light-on-us-imperial-policies/)

   

  US Interests in Bahrain  The …. regime change or democracy in Bahrain. 

   

  "We are the people who will kill humiliation and assassinate misery. Don't you hear their cries? Don't you hear their screams?"

   

  Ayat Al-Qurmezi was arrested and imprisoned and tortured for speaking these lines. Her poetry speaks to the government of Bahrain and all those who support them. If we are to listen as Ayat Al-Qurmezi asks then we must refuse to let the power of the United States help maintain this injustice.

   

  We believe that United States federal government should stop supporting the undemocratic regime in Bahrain.

   

  Refusing to accept the United States’ hypocrisy over the Arab Spring is a necessary response that must happen at all levels and can open up new possibilities in our global relationship to others

  Schwedler et al. (Prof of Political Science @ UMass; Prof of Political Science @ Kent State; Prof of Political Science at Hobart and William Smith Colleges) 11

  (Jillian Schwedler, Joshua Stacher, and Stacey Philbrick Yadav, Three Powerfully Wrong--and Wrongly Powerful--American Narratives about the Arab Spring, Jun 10 2011, http://www.jadaliyya.com/pages/index/1826/three-powerfully-wrong_and-wrongly-powerful_americ)

   

  When people …. they have come to represent.

   

  And by connecting the repression and violence in Bahrain to the imperialism of the US basing policies we create an opening to produce of the many struggles that are necessary to resist global forms of oppression.

  Sherman (Independent researcher and Activist, Chapel Hill) 10

  (Steven, The Empire of Bases and the American Anti-War Movement, March 10th, 2010, http://dissidentvoice.org/2010/03/the-empire-of-bases-and-the-american-anti-war-movement/)

   

  When there is some ….more and more arms and bases.

   

   

  As young scholars and researchers we must attack US policy on Bahrain. In this way we help make possible democracy, not only in Bahrain, but in this classroom

  Schostak (Professor of Education at Manchester Metropolitan University) 11

  (John, Wikileaks, Tahrir Square – their significance for re-thinking democracy, Manchester social movements conference, April, http://www.enquirylearning.net/ELU/politics/tahrirwikileaks.html)

   

  Thus there is a critical ….countervailing powers to Power.

   

  And despite threats of cooption, being able to forge ties with those in power is necessary to the success of anti-basing and anti-imperialist movements

  Yeo (Assistant Professor of Politics at the Catholic University of America) 11

  (Andrew, Activists, Alliances, and Anti-U.S. Base Protests, Cambridge University Press, pg 196-7)

   

  In the previous section, 1 …. on basing policy outcomes.

   

   

  Opening up global issues like Bahrain to debate is crucial to the success of all movements – the questions of strategy and success are crucial

  Schostak (Professor of Education at Manchester Metropolitan University) 11

  (John, Wikileaks, Tahrir Square – their significance for re-thinking democracy, Manchester social movements conference, April, http://www.enquirylearning.net/ELU/politics/tahrirwikileaks.html)

   

  In his study of the conditions …. is so important today.

   

   

  It may be easy to try to adopt absolutist or universal responses to the injustices that we have described yet it is that drive to reduce the unendingly complex that makes violent US orientalism possible

  Czajka (Assistant Professor of Sociology at the American University in Cairo) 11

  (Agnes, Orientalising The Egyptian Uprising Take Two, 1 Jul 01 2011, http://www.jadaliyya.com/pages/index/2016/orientalising-the-egyptian-uprising-take-two_a-res)

   

  This ontological and epistemological ….. same or inherently antithetical.

   

  Militarism is global – Only acting at the local levels ensures movement failure

  Davis (Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Hawaii) 11

  (Sasha, The US military base network and contemporary colonialism: Power projection, resistance and the quest for operational unilateralism, Political Geography xxx (2011))

   

   In this analysis of the shifting …of the empire’s unraveling.

   

  Rooten cosmopolitanism solves their offence – their focus argument are a false dicotemy

  Yeo (Assistant Professor of Politics at the Catholic University of America) 9

  (Andrew, Not in Anyone’s Backyard: The Emergence and Identity of a Transnational Anti-Base Network, International Studies Quarterly (2009) 53, 571–594)

   

  The choice between ….  with the global No Bases movement.

  
  
• 
  
  

Syria 1AC - Fullerton

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

•  

   

  1AC

  The United States federal government should provide technical assistance for democratic opposition to Bashar Al-Assad.

   

  Contention One: Stability

  Assad will lose – the longer regime change takes, the more bloody the current civil war will get.

  Elliott Abrams, Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies @ Council on Foreign Relations, 12/11/2011 (http://blogs.cfr.org/abrams/2011/12/11/the-syrian-civil-war/#more-2379)

  The revolt against the Assad regime is becoming a civil war. The London-based Arabic newspaper Asharq Alawsat reports this:

  Defections from the Syrian army … to bring that day closer.

   

  Engagement reduces the transition period – the opposition is currently above sectarianism.

  Amir Taheri, Columnist for the Wall Street Journal and the NY Post, 11/1/2011 (http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/publications/id.10715/pub_detail.asp)

  When they started protest marches, … to evaporate in a few day

   

  Drawn out Syrian civil war escalates.

  Shaul Mishal, Poli Sci @ Tel Aviv University, Specializes in Arab and Palestinian Politics, 12/29/2011 (http://www.haaretz.com/weekend/magazine/middle-east-outrageous-inspired-inevitable-1.404375)

  In Syria, there is no … on the 1967 lines will weaken.

   

  Extinction

  Dr. Christof Lehmann, psychologist, political advisor and consultant, 12/15/2011 (http://pressenza.com/npermalink/the-manufacturing-of-the-war-in-syria)

  A military attack on Syria … stand with Syria and Peace.

   

  Quick opposition victory in Syria reduces Saudi threat perceptions of Iran.

  F. Gregory Gause, Political Science @ UVM, Specialist in Saudi Affairs, 12/9/2011 (http://www.cfr.org/saudi-arabia/saudis-new-mideast-challenges/p26760)

  There's certainly rhetorical support. The … influence in the Arab world.

   

  Key to reducing sectarian drum-beating – the impact is extremism, a direct Iran/Saudi military clash, and broader Middle East war.

  F. Gregory Gause, Political Science @ UVM, Specialist in Saudi Affairs, 12/9/2011 (http://www.cfr.org/saudi-arabia/saudis-new-mideast-challenges/p26760)

  So the Saudis cannot turn … conflict in the Middle East

   

  Middle East conflict escalates and goes nuclear

  Russell 09

  James A. Russell, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East,” Institut Français des Relations Internationales, Spring 2009, http://www.analyst-network.com/articles/141/StrategicStabilityReconsideredProspectsforEscalationandNuclearWarintheMiddleEast.pdf

  Strategic stability in the region … risk for the entire world.

   

  Doesn’t need to draw in great powers – Israel alone has enough to cause extinction.

  Casey ’6 — Mingus Casey, Scoop News, 10-9-6 “On the History of Nuclear Arms, the Arms trade, and one very small very vulnerable very beautiful planet” online

  The ecological effects of nuclear … life will probably die out.

   

  Middle East war escalates US-Chinese oil competition

  Marvin Cetron, President-Forecasting International and Owen Daniels, Fmr. Senior editor-Omni Magazine, 9/1/’7 (http://www.mywire.com/a/TheFuturist/Worstcase-scenario-Middle-East-current/4296533?&pbl=7)

  * Security risks continue with … more favorable policies in Venezuela.

   

  Chinese oil competition causes global wars.

  Michael Klare, Prof. Security Studies @ Hampshire, ‘8 (Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet, p. 239)

  Of most immediate danger is … from civilian to military use.

   

  The plan provides the training necessary for the opposition to unseat Assad.

  Erica Chenoweth, Assistant Professor of Government at Wesleyan University, 12/10/2011 (http://rationalinsurgent.wordpress.com/2011/12/10/13-ways-to-support-the-syrian-opposition-right-now/)

  Strengthen the opposition’s strategic communication … the regime with nonviolent sanctions.

   

  Plan increases legitimacy of the opposition – means Assad loses control of key minorities

  Dennis Ross, Fmr Senior Middle East Advisor to the White House, 12/21/2011 (http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC07.php?CID=622)

  ROSS: This is a regime that … tolerance, inclusion, and basically progress.

   

  US engagement with the opposition strengthens local movements and fractures Assad’s key bases of support

  Fly et al 11/8/2011

  Jamie M. Fly (FPI), Robert Zarate (FPI), Mark Dubowitz (FDD), Reuel Marc Gerecht (FDD), Tony Badran (FDD), Ammar Abdulhamid (FDD), and John Hannah (FDD). The Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) for the Syrian Working Group. November 8, 2011. “Towards a Post-Assad Syria: Options for the United States and Like-Minded Nations to Further Assist the Anti-Regime Syrian Opposition”. http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/towards-a-post-assad-syria/

  To begin with, Washington should … our European and Arab partners.

   

  Opposition no longer divided

  Al Jazeera 12/31/2011 (http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/12/20111231132118760926.html)

  Amid the violence, two leading … Arab intervention to be foreign".

   

  Only the US can build the international consensus necessary to fracture Assad’s support

  Michael Young, Editor of the Daily Star (Beirut), Analyst on Syrian and Lebanese political affairs, 8/1/2011 (http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/08/01/washington-avoids-syrian-crackdown-in-hama.html)

  Today, much has taken place … —a green light to continue murdering.

   

  US is key – only actor that can mediate between regional interests.

  Tony Badran is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 9/29/2011 (http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/the-uncomfortable-reality-in-syria/)

  But without a fallback plan, Washington … demise of the Assad regime.

   

   

  Contention Two: Credibility

   

  Obama’s failure to take decisive action on Syria destroys credibility of US action in the Middle East – Assad’s defiance undermines US influence.

  Singh, director of the Washington Institute, 8/16/2011 [Michael, managing director of The Washington Institute and a former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council., The U.S. Needs to Speak Clearly on Syria, 2011, ]

  When the story of the … need to deal with him.

   

  Obama needs to take the lead in supporting the opposition – rebuilds credibility.

  Gordon, foreign policy consultant and former Pentagon spokesman, 8/20/2011 [J.D. is a communications consultant to several Washington-D.C. think tanks and a retired Navy Commander who served as a Pentagon spokesman in the Office of the Secretary of Defense from 2005-2009. Libya, Syria Show Obama in Way Over His Head Available Online @ http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/08/20/libya-syria-show-obama-in-way-over-his-head/#ixzz1Vgk2QcQB]

  With Syria, Mr. Obama finally called … up their own military arsenals.

   

  US inaction allows Iran to maintain influence – active US engagement is key to containment

  Doran, 12-13-11 [Michael, Roger Hertog Senior … .edu/opinions/2011/1213_syria_doran.aspx]

  If so, then why doesn’t President Obama put together a diplomatic coalition dedicated to compelling Asad, by all means short of military intervention, to step down? The president is difficult to read on this issue. He probably fears a slippery slope. If he takes the lead, he risks becoming involved in an open-ended conflict that will generate calls for boots on the ground. After Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya, Washington has had its fill of regime-change policies. In addition, the president can clearly see that Asad’s days are numbered. He no doubt calculates that the United States can simply stand on the sidelines and reap all of the benefits of an aggressive regime-change policy without any of the costs. “We’re all waiting for the thing that will crack them,” an Obama administration official recently stated. “And it will be the economy that will wake everybody up, both those who support him, and Asad and his circle.” The best name for this policy is masterful inaction. Critics, among whom I would number myself, would say that there is nothing masterful about it. In our eyes, it is cynical. It makes a show of trying to stop the violence while knowing full well that pious calls for an end to the killing will have only marginal influence. In addition, it amounts to an abdication of the traditional leadership role that the United States has played in the Middle East for the last fifty years. The key challenge for us critics, however, is to prove that a more pronounced American leadership role will lead to tangible benefits that will not be realized by simply standing on the sidelines. When the challenge is posed in that manner, the most important arguments center around the need to counter Iran and its influence. The fight in Syria today is two contests in one. It is a struggle between Syrians over the nature of their government and society, but it is also a regional rivalry between Iran and its adversaries. Tehran and its allies are working very hard to ensure that Asad stays in power. If he falls, they will work equally hard to shape the new order in a way that protects their key security interests. The United States has a considerable interest in weakening Iran regionally. It cannot assume that events will naturally lead to permanent damage to the interests of Tehran. If Washington does not join the game, it is unlikely to win.

   

  And, inaction alienates the opposition -- demonstrating unconditional resolve is key to leverage US influence.

  Hamid, 7-13-11 [Shadi, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center and a fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. “President Obama's Syria Problem,” http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/07/president-obamas-syria-problem/241861/]

  After regime thugs attacked the U.S. … might still become our friends.

   

  US support is key -- the aff reverses any residual anti-Americanism.

  Tobin, 7-8-11

  [Jonathan S., Senior Online Editor of Commentary magazine, chief politics blogger, former editor in chief of the Jewish Exponent in Philadelphia, columns have regularly appeared in the Jerusalem Post and many other newspapers, over the course of his career, he has won more than 50 journalism awards for commentary, editorial writing, and arts criticism, named both the best editorial columnist and the best arts critic in Philadelphia by the Society of Professional Journalists, has lectured on campuses and to organizations around the country and has appeared on CNN, FOX News Channel, the FOX Business Channel, the BBC, and numerous other media outlets “U.S. Support Doesn’t Taint Syrian Protests,” http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/07/08/american-support-doesn%E2%80%99t-taint-syrian-protests/]

  U.S. Ambassador Robert S. Ford and his French colleague Eric Chavallier arrived in Hama yesterday and stayed until Friday afternoon. The Syrian government reacted angrily, accusing the envoys of meeting with “saboteurs” and inciting protests. This will cause some to worry their association with Americans will taint Syrian dissidents, and the protests will now be seen as inspired by the West. But such arguments are absurd and are merely excuses for doing nothing while people are being slaughtered by a tyrant. There are those, including not a few members of the Obama administration, who tend to see America’s role in the world as essentially malevolent. They believe any self-respecting freedom movement must disassociate itself from the West and the United States in particular if it wishes to succeed. But this is a self-fulfilling prophecy. While conspiracy theorists in the Arab and Muslim world focus their hate on the Great Satan in Washington, most ordinary people understand that America is a free country. Rather than standing aloof from their struggles for freedom, it is vital the United States associate itself with the people in the streets calling for an end to the brutal Assad regime and not line itself up with the dictators. There are no guarantees the alternatives to the authoritarians in Syria or any other Arab country will be genuine liberals or believers in democracy. But the best way to influence such people to put away their hatred for the U.S. and its Israeli ally is to clearly align Americans with the forces fighting for freedom. Though the Assad clan may try to taint protesters by painting them as pro-Americans or, even worse, Zionists, few in the streets of Hama or Damascus will believe it. They know for themselves just how bad their government really is. Let’s hope Ambassador Ford’s visit to Hama is just the first of many that will both inhibit the regime from perpetrating further massacres and give hope to dissidents who will now know they are not alone.

   

  Perceived weakness on Syria emboldens Iran – decisive action reins in Iranian prolif and aggression

  Alterman, CSIS senior fellow, 2011 [Jon, former Department of State Policy planning staff, CSIS Middle East program director and senior fellow “Fierce or Feeble: Persian Gulf assessments of U.S. power” section within Capacity and Resolve: Foreign Assessments of U.S. Power, http://csis.org/files/publication/110613_Cohen_CapacityResolve_Web.pdf, p.69-70, accessed 9-30-1]

  Whatever the actual cost, and … set of actions and statements.

   

  Independently, democracy assistance deters Iran.

  POMED, 7-15-11 [“POMED Notes: Sen. Graham on the War on Terror,” http://pomed.org/blog/2011/06/pomed-notes-sen-graham-on-the-war-on-terror.html/]

  Graham also said that “isolationism is not a viable strategy” for the United States in the 21stcentury, and emphasized the importance of providing economic assistance to countries undergoing transitions to democracy, such as Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya. He labeled these aid packages “national security investment[s].” And in providing aid to Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya the U.S. should learn lessons from Iraq in providing aid and preventing the creation of power vacuums. He also cited the threat of Iran, arguing that successful transitions in places such as Yemen, Tunisia, and Egypt will be the best deterrent for Iran. The U.S. has the opportunity to deter Iran by backing Arab Spring movements, demonstrating its rejection for theocratic and secular dictatorships that are oppressive. The best approach to pressuring dictatorships utilizes a combination of money, diplomacy, international efforts, and occasionally, military force. Yet Graham recognized that “each country is different,” and so the approach of the U.S. in each country will vary. And he said that the Libya strategy should be considered for Syria, in order to replace President Bashar al-Assadwith a democratic regime.

   

  Supporting the opposition ends Iranian hegemony peacefully.

  Alhomayed, 6-24-11 [Tariq, editor in chief of Asharq Al Awsat, London, “Curbing Iranian influence without conflict,” http://english.alarabiya.net/views/2011/06/24/154651.html]

  Thus we could assume today, with the political earthquake which has struck the region, and specifically Syria, that the international community will seek to send Iran back to within its normal borders, and this is in order to reform the dysfunctional political situation and destruction in Iraq, so that Iraq is for the Iraqis, from all walks of life, and not for Iran. Tehran's influence would then be curbed from there, just as it was from Bahrain by the Peninsula Shield Force, and today we see that the Syrian revolutionaries are vowing to curb Iran's influence from their country as well. When Iran is curbed back to within its borders, it will have to face its own people who are suffering from high unemployment, not to mention that the broadest section the Iranian population is the youth, who are convinced that the Khomeinist revolutionary regime has ultimately failed, especially in light of deteriorating economic conditions and the clear political conflicts taking place between the ruling elite in Tehran. By reforming the situation in Iraq and supporting the Syrian people, we can return Iran to its border and clip the wings of the Tehran regime that is seeking to export its revolution abroad. This would eliminate the Iranian threat without firing a single shot, and it would protect Iraq whilst now necessitating US forces remaining deployed there. Will Obama, and the major regional powers, exploit this opportunity? That is the question!

   

  Iran prolif causes extinction

  Dr. Robert Satloff, Executive Director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 6/23/2011 (http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/112/sat062311.pdf)

  Fourth, it bears repeating that … development of a military nuclear capability.

   

  Emboldened Iran provokes Israeli lashout

  Lynch 11 Marc Lynch is a Non-… American Security, an Associate Professor

  of Political Science and Director of the Middle East Studies Program at George  Washington University, and an editor for the Middle East Channel for ForeignPolicy.com.   June 2011    Upheaval: U.S. Policy Toward Iran in a Changing Middle East

  http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Upheaval_Lynch_2.pdf

  As it struggles to recalibrate … sudden and game-changing war.

   

  Direct Israel-Iran war causes extinction

  Trabanco 9 [José Miguel Alonso Trabanco, Degree in international relations @ Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Studies, Mexico City & frequent contributor to Global Research, “The Middle Eastern Powder Keg Can Explode at Anytime,” Global Research, January 13, 2009, pg. http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=11762]

  Israel fears a nuclear Iran would … the middle of a powder keg.

   

  Sanctions don’t solve and mean that Iran will shock oil markets and crash the global economy – non-economic pressure is key

  Jim Lacey, Prof Strategic Studies @ Marine Corps War College, 1/4/2012 (http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/287076/iran-s-hormuz-threat-jim-lacey)

  As the “Iran is bluffing” … , and possibly Kuwaiti, oil shipments. 

   

  Economic collapse causes global nuclear war

  Merlini, Senior Fellow – Brookings, 11

  [Cesare Merlini, nonresident senior fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe and chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Italian Institute for International Affairs (IAI) in Rome. He served as IAI president from 1979 to 2001. Until 2009, he also occupied the position of executive vice chairman of the Council for the United States and Italy, which he co-founded in 1983. His areas of expertise include transatlantic relations, European integration and nuclear non-proliferation, with particular focus on nuclear science and technology. A Post-Secular World?  DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2011.571015 Article Requests: Order Reprints : Request Permissions Published in: journal Survival, Volume 53, Issue 2 April 2011 , pages 117 - 130 Publication Frequency: 6 issues per year  Download PDF Download PDF (~357 KB)     View Related Articles  To cite this Article: Merlini, Cesare 'A Post-Secular World?', Survival, 53:2, 117 – 130]

  Two neatly opposed scenarios for … absolutes such as unbridled nationalism.

   

  Oil shocks cause shale oil development

  Marvin Cetron, President-Forecasting International and Owen Daniels, Fmr. Senior editor-Omni Magazine, 9/1/’7 (http://www.mywire.com/a/TheFuturist/Worstcase-scenario-Middle-East-current/4296533?&pbl=7)

  * Oil shale. With a prolonged … United States might set itself.

   

  Large scale oil shale causes warming.

  Elliot Grunewald, Ph D Candidate in Geophysics @ Stanford, 2006 (http://srb.stanford.edu/nur/GP200A%20Papers/elliot_grunewald_paper.pdf)

  Perhaps most troubling of all … regulated aspects of the industry.

   

  Warming causes extinction

  Atcheson 4

  (John, Geologist at several federal agencies, Baltimore Sun, “Ticking time bomb”, 12-15, L/N)

  The Arctic Council's recent report … . We have to act now.

   

   

   

   

   

   

   

   

  
  
• 
  
  

Syria Aff - Russia Adv

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• Russia is trying to recoup influence via the Syrian transition as a means of maintaining naval power projection.

  Blanford, 9-21-11 [Nicholas, The Daily Star, “Russia banks on Assad’s survival as billions in arms deals hang in balance,” http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2011/Sep-21/149259-russia-banks-on-assads-survival-as-billions-in-arms-deals-hang-in-balance.ashx#ixzz1bP2xECfK]

  Russia can be forgiven feeling … , and if, Ukraine throws it out.

   

  Newest Russian moves prove

  Pollock, 12-22-11 [David, Kaufman fellow at The Washington Institute, focusing on the political dynamics of Middle Eastern countries, “Breaking Assad's Hold on Russia,” http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3436]

  Russia's persistent backing for Syria's … Hizballah -- surely with Moscow's knowledge.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

  Russian naval presence in the Mediterranean guarantees clashes with the US

  Eshel, ‘8 [David, former Israeli Defence Forces officer, author of “Daring to Win: Special Forces at War,” “Russian Mediterranean Naval Build-Up Challenges NATO Sixth Fleet Domination,” 8-20, http://defense-update.com/analysis/analysis_091207_navy.htm]

   (Latest update) By 20 August 2008 … also enter into the fray.

   

  Russian expansionism in the Middle East guarantees miscalculated war.

  Walter Laqueur, Fmr chairman of the International Research Council of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, 8/17/2008 (http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/mesh/2008/08/russia_and_the_middle_east/)

  According to Vladimir Putin, the … the door to serious miscalculations.

   

  Extinction

  Hellman, ‘8  [Martin, prof of electrical engineering @ Stanford University. A renowned mathematician who has worked for over 25 years during nuclear war risk assessment “Soaring, cryptography and nuclear weapons,” Asia Times, Oct 23, 2008, pg. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/JJ23Aa01.html]

  A similar situation exists with … are ignoring the warning signs.

   

  US inaction directly fuels Russian influence in Syria -- leadership is critical.

  Rogin, 12-20-11 [Josh, The Cable -- Foreign Policy, “Experts to the administration: Help Syria now,” http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/12/20/experts_to_the_administration_help_syria_now#comment-904516]

  President Barack Obama's administration has … of that protest march here:

   

  US diplomatic influence with the post-transition regime ousts Russia in the Mediterranean.

  Bhadrakumar, 6-14-11 [M K, career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service, assignments included the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey, “Syria on the boil, US warship in Black Sea,” http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MF14Ak02.html]

  Without doubt, the US is … in Damascus that succeeds Assad.

   

  Russian influence in Syria allows North Korea to escape Chinese dominance, causes Russia/China war, and collapses Japanese credibility.

  Ruediger Frank, Professor of East Asian Economy and Society at the University of Vienna, August 2011 (http://38north.org/2011/08/rfrank082511/)

  The case is particularly interesting … better keep our eyes open.

   

  North Korean dependence on China solves nuclearization and stability

  Daniel Kliman, transatlantic fellow for Asia at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, 1/19/2012 (http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/19/the_last_kim_of_pyongyang?page=full)

  These changes, which blindsided most … Pyongyang unless Washington moves first.

   

  Korean war causes extinction

  Hayes & Hamel-Green, 10 – *Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development, AND Executive Dean of the Faculty of Arts, Education and Human Development act Victoria University (1/5/10, Executive Dean at Victoria, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia,” http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/10001HayesHamalGreen.pdf)

  The international community is increasingly … consideration from the international community.

   

  Russia/China tensions are high

  Dr. Richard Weitz, Senior Fellow and Director, Center for Political-Military Analysis, Hudson Institute, 4/14/2011 (http://en.rian.ru/valdai_op/20110414/163523421.html)

  Now the growing prowess of … using racism and ethnic hatred.

   

  Russia/China conflict escalates to nuclear war.

  Alexander Sharavin, Director, Institute for Military and Political Analysis, ‘1 (What the Paper Say, l/n)

  Russia may face the "wonderful" … frost of a possible nuclear winter.

   

  Japanese credibility key to East Asian stability

  Leheny 2006 (David, Assoc. Prof. Poli. Sci. @ U of Wisconsin-Madison, : “A Narrow Place to Cross Swords,” in Beyond Japan: The Dynamics of East Asian Regionalism, edited by Peter Katzenstein and Takashi Shiraishi) [it’s a model for Asian identity crises]

  Can Japanese leaders learn how … to tell whose is whose.

   

  East Asian instability causes nuclear war.

  Landay 2k

  Jon Landay, 3/10/2000, Knight Ridder, Washington Bureau, lexis

  The 3,700-mile arc that begins … already shaky international nonproliferation regime.

   

   

  Russian relations already low over democracy assistance

  Tim Allen, Editor of Democracy Digest, Fellow @ National Endowment for Democracy, 1/18/2012 (http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2012/01/kremlin-attack-on-us-envoy-highlights-%E2%80%98made-in-america%E2%80%99-fixation/)

  Russian state television has launched a … meeting with senior government officials.

   

   

   

   

   

   

   

   

  
  
• 
  
  

Syria 1AC - Texas

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  
• 
  
• 
  
  

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  
• 
  
• 
  
  

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  
• 
  
•