Contention One: Stability
Egypt needs assistance for economic reform – governments have pledged support but it hasn’t arrived
Jerusalem Post 11
Jerusalem Post 9/13/11, lexis
The latest package of aid … by Western and Arab governments.
Corruption will cause cycles of instability in Egypt – reform is key
Schuman 11
Michael Schuman, American author and journalist who specializes in Asian economics, politics and history. He is currently the Asia business correspondent for TIME Magazine, based in Hong Kong, “Why the Arab Spring's success depends on jobs, not guns,” 8/22/11, http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/08/22/why-the-arab-spring%e2%80%99s-success-depends-on-jobs-not-guns/#ixzz1XVK2xUzZ
But to make that optimistic … fail on its economic policies.
Economics is the largest contributor to instability
Allen 11
Michael Allen, Special Assistant for Government Relations and Public Affairs at the National Endowment for Democracy and former lecturing faculty of faculty of universities in London and Manchester, and Cranfield School of Management, “Deteriorating economy a greater threat than military to Egypt’s transition,” 9/16/11, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/09/deteriorating-economy-a-greater-threat-than-military-to-egypts-transition/
“We hope the law … of democracy or political reform (19%).
Economic crisis in Egypt produces a global double-dip recession
Michael Schuman, M.A. in International Affairs from Columbia, has corresponded for Forbes, TIME, and WSJ, 2/2/2011 (http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/02/02/does-the-turmoil-in-egypt-threaten-the-global-recovery/#ixzz1TT6k4O6d)
At first glance, the upheaval … just such an unwelcome surprise.
Economic collapse causes global nuclear war
Merlini, Senior Fellow – Brookings, 11
[Cesare Merlini, nonresident senior fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe and chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Italian Institute for International Affairs (IAI) in Rome. He served as IAI president from 1979 to 2001. Until 2009, he also occupied the position of executive vice chairman of the Council for the United States and Italy, which he co-founded in 1983. His areas of expertise include transatlantic relations, European integration and nuclear non-proliferation, with particular focus on nuclear science and technology. A Post-Secular World? DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2011.571015 Article Requests: Order Reprints : Request Permissions Published in: journal Survival, Volume 53, Issue 2 April 2011 , pages 117 - 130 Publication Frequency: 6 issues per year Download PDF Download PDF (~357 KB) View Related Articles To cite this Article: Merlini, Cesare 'A Post-Secular World?', Survival, 53:2, 117 – 130]
Two neatly opposed scenarios for … absolutes such as unbridled nationalism.
Egyptian instability causes wildfire prolif throughout the Middle East
Sokolski 11
Henry Sokolski, executive director of The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center and former Deputy for Nonproliferation Policy in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, 2/8/11, “The New Republic: Revolts Stir Up Nuclear Sentiment,” The New Republic (also published by NPR), http://www.npr.org/2011/02/08/133588036/the-new-republic-revolts-could-fuel-nuclear-desires
Even more dangerously, unlike Iraq, … a condition for securing U.S. nuclear cooperation.
Egypt is the cornerstone of global nonproliferation
Cirincione 11
Joe Cirincione, former director for non-proliferation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, professor of foreign service at Georgetown, 2/13/11, “Egypt's Nuclear Dimension,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/joe-cirincione/egypts-nuclear-dimension_b_822588.html
As a free Egypt transforms itself, … ties with the United States.
Middle Eastern prolif is uniquely destabilizing.
Inbar 8
Efraim Inbar, Ph.D., Professor in Political Studies at Bar-Ilan University and Director of its Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, 4-17-2008. [MESH, Iran and extended deterrence, http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/mesh/2008/04/iran_and_extended_deterrence/]
If Iran is allowed to … put Ahmedinejad in a positive light.
Prolif causes extinction – small crises go nuclear.
Sokolski, executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, serves on the U.S. congressional Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism, ‘9 (Henry, Avoiding a Nuclear Crowd, Policy Review June & July, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/46390537.html)
At a minimum, such developments will … their critics, would ever want.
Reform key to the Egyptian economy
Daily News 11
The Daily News Egypt 7/26/11, http://thedailynewsegypt.com/economy/egypt-must-foster-private-investment-report-suggests.html
CAIRO: Egypt must focus on … operating in the formal sector.
Assistance for reform spurs foreign investment and stabilizes Egypt
Daily News 11
The Daily News Egypt 7/26/11, http://thedailynewsegypt.com/economy/egypt-must-foster-private-investment-report-suggests.html
Egyptians would also benefit from … a turbulent region,” the report said.
Specifically, US assistance for customs reform is key to the Egyptian economy
Schott and Kotschwar 11
Jeffrey J. Schott, senior fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics, former professor at Georgetown and official at the Treasury Department, and Barbara Kotschwar, economics professor, Georgetown, 2/4/11, “What the United States Can Do to Help a Post-Mubarak Egypt,” http://www.piie.com/realtime/?p=2003
Whoever emerges on top of … and communications technology (ICT) sector.
US assistance and leadership is key to successful reform
Habibi 11
Nader Habibi, professor of economics of the Middle East in Brandeis University's Crown Center for Middle East Studies, 4/18/11, “Structuring Economic Assistance for Egypt and Tunisia,” http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8549/structuring-economic-assistance-for-egypt-and-tunisia
As Egypt and Tunisia move … chances for a successful democaratic transition.
Contention Two: Economic Partnership
Technical assistance to streamline customs regulations is key to US-Egyptian trade
Schott and Kotschwar 10
Jeffrey J. Schott, senior fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics, former professor at Georgetown and official at the Treasury Department, and Barbara Kotschwar, economics professor, Georgetown, 1/10, “Reengaging Egypt: Options for US-Egypt Economic Relations,” http://bookstore.piie.com/book-store/4396.html
One important component of international … and improve their customs facilities.
Assistance for transparency and customs reform is key to economic relations and paves the way to an FTA
Schott and Kotschwar 10
Jeffrey J. Schott, senior fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics, former professor at Georgetown and official at the Treasury Department, and Barbara Kotschwar, economics professor, Georgetown, 1/10, “Reengaging Egypt: Options for US-Egypt Economic Relations,” http://bookstore.piie.com/book-store/4396.html
The United States has a strong … —and set out some suggestions.
Assistance for reforms is key – otherwise an FTA will backfire
Galal and Lawrence 05
Ahmed Galal, Managing Director of the Economic Research Forum, a regional research institution covering the Arab countries, PhD in economics, Boston U., and former World Bank economist, and Robert Lawrence, 5/05, Anchoring Reform with a US-Egypt Free Trade Agreement, http://bookstore.piie.com/book-store/3683.html
It is clear from even … ; other times, it just hurts.
US/Egypt FTA solves Middle East war
Galal and Lawrence 03
Ahmed Galal, Managing Director of the Economic Research Forum, a regional research institution covering the Arab countries, PhD in economics, Boston U., and former World Bank economist, and Robert Lawrence, 7/03, “Egypt-US and Morocco-US Free Trade Agreements,” Egyptian Center for Economic Studies, Working Paper No. 87, http://www.cgdev.org/doc/event%20docs/10.23.03%20GDN%20Conf/galal%20-%20Egypt-US%20and%20Morocco-US%20Free%20Trade%20Agreements.pdf
The starting point is the … region may have followed suit.
US/Egypt economic partnership can revive peace talks
Schott and Kotschwar 10
Jeffrey J. Schott, senior fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics, former professor at Georgetown and official at the Treasury Department, and Barbara Kotschwar, economics professor, Georgetown, 1/10, “Reengaging Egypt: Options for US-Egypt Economic Relations,” http://bookstore.piie.com/book-store/4396.html
The success of any US … policy in the Middle East.
Middle East conflict escalates and goes nuclear
Russell 09
James A. Russell, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East,” Institut Français des Relations Internationales, Spring 2009, http://www.analyst-network.com/articles/141/StrategicStabilityReconsideredProspectsforEscalationandNuclearWarintheMiddleEast.pdf
Strategic stability in the region … risk for the entire world.
US/Egypt economic partnership is key to broader economic and trade ties in the Middle East
Schott and Kotschwar 10
Jeffrey J. Schott, senior fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics, former professor at Georgetown and official at the Treasury Department, and Barbara Kotschwar, economics professor, Georgetown, 1/10, “Reengaging Egypt: Options for US-Egypt Economic Relations,” http://bookstore.piie.com/book-store/4396.html
Revitalizing US-Egypt economic relations would … partnership in the MENA region.
US/Middle East economic ties are key to preserve the petrodollar
Freeman 07
Chas. W. Freeman, Jr., former U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, 8/21/07, “U.S. Foreign Policy and the Arab World (Part II),” The Globalist, http://www.theglobalist.com/storyid.aspx?StoryId=6314
Fifth, we Americans have a major … commodity markets would be profound.
Petrodollar key to heg
Looney 07
Robert Looney, economics professor, Naval Postgraduate School, March-April 07, “The Iranian Oil Bourse A Threat to Dollar Supremacy?” Challenge, http://faculty.nps.edu/relooney/Rel-Challenge-07.pdf
In sum, proponents of the … the country’s military/economic power.
Heg key to prevent nuclear war
Khalilzad 11 [Zalmay, was the United States ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, and the United Nations during the presidency of George W. Bush and the director of policy planning at the Defense Department from 1990 to 1992. FEBRUARY 8, 2011 4:00 A.M. The Economy and National Security http://www.conservativesforamerica.com/national-review/the-economy-and-national-security]
We face this domestic challenge … facing Chinese hegemony and aggression.
Assistance for reform is key to solve climate change
Schott and Kotschwar 10
Jeffrey J. Schott, senior fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics, former professor at Georgetown and official at the Treasury Department, and Barbara Kotschwar, economics professor, Georgetown, 1/10, “Reengaging Egypt: Options for US-Egypt Economic Relations,” http://bookstore.piie.com/book-store/4396.html
The US-Egypt Strategic Economic Partnership … shared challenge of climate change.
Failure to slow the rate of warming results in extinction- environmental collapse
Atcheson 4
(John, Geologist at several federal agencies, Baltimore Sun, “Ticking time bomb”, 12-15, L/N)
The Arctic Council's recent report … . We have to act now.
Plan:
THE UNITED STATES FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD OFFER ASSISTANCE FOR ANTI-CORRUPTION REFORM FOR EGYPT, INCLUDING IN THE CUSTOMS SECTOR
Contention Three: Solvency
Egypt will say yes to transparency assistance
Carnegie Endowment 11
Legatum Institute and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in association with the Atlantic Council, 7/11, “EGYPT’S DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION FIVE IMPORTANT MYTHS ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE,” http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/07/21/egypt-s-democratic-transition-five-important-myths-about-economy-and-international-assistance/41ca#
Continuation of certain reform programmes … in a short period of time.
Democracy assistance is defined by rule of law, civil society, elections, and governance. Anti-corruption assistance falls under governance
McMahon 02
Edward McMahon, Director, Center on Democratic Performance Department of Political Science, Binghamton University, 8/29/02, “The Impact of U.S. Democracy and Governance Assistance in Africa: Benin Case Study,” http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PCAAB068.pdf
U.S. Democracy Assistance Donor agencies … improve their institutions and processes.
USAID anti-corruption assistance includes customs reform and tariffs
Dininio and Kpundeh 99
Phyllis Dininio, anti-corruption specialist with the Center for Democracy and Governance, Ph.D. in political science from Yale, and Sahr John Kpundeh, consultant with experience in governance and anti-corruption issues, Ph.D. from Howard University, 2/99, “A HANDBOOK ON FIGHTING CORRUPTION,” Technical Publication Series, Center for Democracy and Governance, Bureau for Global Programs, Field Support, and Research, U.S. Agency for International Development,
For example, significant corruption in … some combination of these measures.
