1AC – Inherency
Inherency.
The U.S. will directly assist the Syrian opposition.
Rogin, Foreign Policy, 12-28-11
Josh, Reports on national security and foreign policy for The Cable: “Obama administration secretly preparing options for aiding the Syrian opposition,” http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/12/28/obama_administration_secretly_preparing_options_for_aiding_the_syrian_opposition
As the violence
it's mindboggling."
Assistance is provided by the State Department for Syria.
David B. Gootnick, Director, International Affairs and Trade, GAO, ’9
“Democracy Assistance: U.S. Agencies Take Steps to Coordinate International Programs but Lack Information on Some U.S. Funded Activities,” GAO-09-993, Sep. 28, http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d09993.pdf, pp. 46-49
Table 6 shows
increases to 97.
Recently, the U.S. reaffirmed its pledge to support the Syrian opposition.
David Ignatius - Washington Post Writers Group – 7-21-11
“U.S. ponders strategy to support Syria,” http://www2.ljworld.com/news/2011/jul/21/us-ponders-strategy-support-syria/
As the Obama
a democratic transformation.”
The U.S. claims the mantle of having provided consistent, sustained support to the Syrian opposition.
Michael H. Posner, Assistant Secretary of State, Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, 7-27-11
“Axis of Abuse: U.S. Human Rights Policy toward Iran and Syria, Part 1,” House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Middle East and South Asia, Congressional Documents and Publications, Lexis
Our efforts to
welcome your questions.
Still, the U.S. has no real strategy. Sectarian civil war is likely.
Elliot Abrams, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations, 8-2-11
“Preventing Civil War in Syria,” Wall Street Journal, http://www.cfr.org/syria/preventing-civil-war-syria/p25576
Syria remains
, or even some form of military intervention.
State doesn’t conduct evaluations of its assistance.
David B. Gootnick, Director, International Affairs and Trade, GAO, ’10
“Democracy Assistance: U.S. Agencies Take Steps to Coordinate International Programs but Lack Information on Some U.S. Funded Activities,” GAO-09-993, http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d09993.pdf, p. 37
52 According to State DRL officials,
not evaluate every grant.
Credible evidence proves Assad will fall.
Anderson, Former Director, Middle East Policy, DoD, November '11
James H., Also: Director, Middle East Policy, DoD ('06-'09), International and Security Studies Prof, George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies, Nov-Dec, "After the Fall: What’s Next for Assad and Syria?" World Affairs Journal, http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/after-fall-what%E2%80%99s-next-assad-and-syria
Getting a clear read
criticized Assad’s behavior.
Escalating conflict will draw US military intervention
Rabil, Poli Sci Prof, Florida Atlantic, 1-5-12
Robert G.: “Why U.S. must step carefully in Syria,” CNN, http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/03/opinion/rabil-syria/index.html
The popular
Syria deteriorate.
The U.S. will increase assistance after Assad falls.
POMED, Citing Stephen McInerney, POMED Executive Director, 10-13-11
“POMED Notes: Strengthening Arab Democracy: U.S. Assistance after the Uprisings,” http://pomed.org/blog/2011/10/pomed-notes-strengthening-arab-democracy-u-s-assistance-after-the-uprisings.html [WPT UPD]
Meanwhile,
U.S. democracy assistance.”
Advantage - Syria
Current U.S. democracy assistance priorities in Syria are skewed—marginalizing the opposition
IPT (Investigative Project on Terrorism), Citing Farid Ghadry, President, Reform Party of Syria (RPS), 6-6-11
“Ghadry: Assad Will Fall, But the Brotherhood May Follow,” Delivered by Newstex, Lexis
As he looks towards the future,
then the region is in trouble.”
Syrian opposition is split—some elements are non-secular
Hossein Ruyvaran, Middle East Affairs Expert, 8-13-11
Chair, Political Commission, Society for the Defense of the Nation of Palestine, “Iranian expert says dialogue ‘only’ solution to Syrian crisis,” Jaam-e Jam [BBC-LEXIS]
Q: If we note the
youth whose leanings are not known.
Assad’s divide-and-conquer strategy will produce sectarian wars throughout the Middle East that extend into South Asia. Syria is the linchpin of a broader Shiite-Sunni conflict, spearheaded by Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Nasr, International Politics Prof, Tufts, 8-27-11
Vali, Foreign Affairs Policy Advisory Board, State Department: “If the Arab Spring Turns Ugly,” New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/28/opinion/sunday/the-dangers-lurking-in-the-arab-spring.html?pagewanted=1&_r=2
The Arab Spring is a hopeful chapter in
Syria and Iraq, it is already happening.
Syrian war escalates globally
Peter Apps, Political Risk Correspondent, Reuters, “Analysis: Syrian civil war drags in Mideast, global powers,” 11-30, 2011, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/30/us-syria-powers-idUSTRE7AT25320111130
As Syria's
as elsewhere."
Largest threat to one-fourth of the world
Shibil Sidiqqi, Fellow, Centre for the Study of Global Power and Politics, 4-15-10
“Terrorism: The nuclear summit's 'straw man',” http://98.130.246.96/archive_articles_details.asp?articleid=1055&typeid=3
However, the president's
largest global nuclear threat.
Saudi Arabia will host Pakistani nuclear weapons in response to sectarian violence and deteriorating relations with the U.S.
Guzansky, Institute for National Security Studies, ’11 [Gender Modified]
Yoel, 7-1, “Tehran tests Saudis’ nerve on nuclear weapons,” The Australian, http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/tehran-tests-saudis-nerve-on-nuclear-weapons/story-e6frg6ux-1226085108555
Until recently it appeared
International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring.
South-Asian nuclear instability would result.
Roberts, History Prof, Cambridge, ’11
Andrew, Also: Royal Society of Literature Fellow, Jan. 2, “Iran’s Nuclear Domino Effect,” THE DAILY BEAST, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/01/02/irans-nuclear-weapons-could-lead-to-a-saudi-and-pakistan-alliance.html [WFU]
Where Edelman goes an
significantly more dangerous.
That ends the world
Alan Robock is professor of climatology at Rutgers University and associate director of the school's Center for Environmental Prediction, where he studies many aspects of climate change. He is a fellow of the American Meteorological Society and a participant in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and Owen Brian Toon is chair of the department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences at the University of Colorado at Boulder and a fellow of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics there. He is a fellow of the American Meteorological Society and the American Geophysical Union. “South Asian Threat? Local Nuclear War = Global Suffering”, from the January 2010 issue of Scientific American magazine
People have several incorrect impressions
create a global environmental disaster.
1AC – Plan
Plan: The United States Department of State should commission participatory evaluations of so-called democracy assistance programs for Syria that the Department of State implements.
1AC – Solvency
Evaluation prevents social fragmentation by building bridges of communication.
Kushner, Regional Monitoring and Evaluation Officer, UNICEF, ’6
Saville, Officer for Latin America & the Carribbean: “Democracy and Evaluation,” in New Trends in Development Evaluation (Segone, ed.), Evaluation Working Papers #5, UNICEF Regional Office for CEE/CIS and IPEN, http://www.unicef.org/ceecis/New_trends_Dev_EValuation.pdf, p. 36 [ACG CSU]
One of the reasons for
can build bridges of communication.
The process promotes mutual understanding and generates social capital.
Kushner, Regional Monitoring and Evaluation Officer, UNICEF, ’6
Saville, Officer for Latin America & the Carribbean: “Democracy and Evaluation,” in New Trends in Development Evaluation (Segone, ed.), Evaluation Working Papers #5, UNICEF Regional Office for CEE/CIS and IPEN, http://www.unicef.org/ceecis/New_trends_Dev_EValuation.pdf, p. 36 [ACG CSU]
Most recently,
displace the concerns of other stakeholders
Trust and social capital reduce sectarian conflict more than any amount of aid.
Burnell, Democracy Assistance Guru, December
Peter, Politics & International Studies Prof, Warwick, 2011: Lessons of Experience in International Democracy Support: Implications for Supporting Democratic Change in North Africa, UNU-Wider (United Nations University - World Institute for Development Economics Research) Working Paper #2011/84, http://www.wider.unu.edu/publications/working-papers/2011/en_GB/wp2011-084/_files/86687158764241318/default/wp2011-084.pdf, p. 6 [ACG CSU]
Democracy support
loss of direct accountability to the donors.
The plan is democracy assistance because the method of evaluation is democratic.
Peter Burnell, Politics and International Studies Prof, Warwick, '7
Evaluating Democracy Support: Methods and Experiences, http://www.adb.org/evaluation/documents/EvaluatingDemocracySupport.pdf, pp. 17-18
One further and rather special
beneficiaries in the field.
The plan is democracy assistance because it exemplifies democratic values.
Thomas Carothers, Topic Guru, ’93
Founder & Director, Democracy and Rule of Law Program, Carnegie Endowment, Foreign operations, export financing, and related programs appropriations for fiscal year 1994: hearings before a subcommittee of the Committee on Appropriations, United States Senate, Mar. 2, http://www.ebooksread.com/authors-eng/export-financing-united-states-congress-senate-committee-on-appr/foreign-operations-export-financing-and-related-programs-appropriations-for-fi-tin/page-15-foreign-operations-export-financing-and-related-programs-appropriations-for-fi-tin.shtml
TYPES OF DEMOCRACY ASSISTANCE
to and from the United States.
Evaluation itself is technical capacity building in democratic governance.
Peter Burnell, Politics and International Studies Prof, Warwick, ’8.
“From Evaluating Democracy Assistance to Appraising Democracy Promotion,” Political Studies 56 (2) (June 1): 414-434. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9248.2007.00653.x
One view is that
begins to look unassailable.
Evaluation comes from democracy assistance budget and is substantial.
Burnell, Previously Qualified, ’7
Evaluating Democracy Support: Methods and Experiences, pp. 38-39
All these and similar
from pursuing its goals.
State can effectively compile information from multiple sources – Religious Freedom Reports prove.
Brian J. Grim, Senior Researcher, Pew Forum on Religious and Public Life, et al., ’6
“Measuring International Socio-Religious Values and Conflict by Coding US State Department Reports,” JSM Proceedings, AAPOR-Section on Survey Research Methods, American Association of Public Opinion Researchers (AAPOR) annual conference
4. Conclusions
such questions can be empirically explored.
A commitment to evaluate the effectiveness of existing programs would enable more effective programming of future democracy assistance funds. Senior commitment to evaluation will inculcate a culture of effectiveness.
NRC Committee on Evaluation of USAID Democracy Assistance Programs ’8
Improving Democracy Assistance: Building Knowledge Through Evaluations and Research, http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12164.html, pp. 220-221 [ACG]
Providing Leadership and Strategic Vision
may simply be ineffective.
Mono-causal explanations about the causes of violence vacillate between false optimism and despair, with mass killings death in between. People who don’t fit within the new order are eliminated.
Elshtain, International Relations Prof, ’11
Jean Bethke: “Women, The State, and War,” International Relations, 23(2): 289-303, DOI: 10.1177/004711780910464, p. 301 [ACG CSU]
Waltz is surely correct
that sort of thing.
The plan’s a key part of a coherent step-by-step approach.
Michael Singh, Managing Director, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 8-16-11
“The U.S. needs to speak clearly on Syria,” Foreign Policy, http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/16/the_us_needs_to_speak_clearly_on_syria
Affecting the outcome
is unmistakable.
Only the U.S. can assist the Syrian transition – the plan will build leverage over time.
Michael Young, Opinion Page Editor, Lebanon Daily Star, 5-19-11
“An Obama road map to change in Syria.” Lebanon Daily Star, http://www.dailystar.com.lb/mobile/Article.aspx?id=139016.
We’ve heard Obama
can take such measures.
Concrete solidarity – through detailed, specific engagement – is essential.
Booth, International Politics, Aberystwyth, ’11
Ken. “Anchored in Tahrir Square.” European Security 20 (Sep): 473-479. doi:10.1080/09662839.2011.609169.
Such an approach
they are anchored, albeit precariously, in Tahrir Square.
NEG ARGs support improving – not eliminating – democracy assistance.
POMED, Citing Laith Kubba, Senior Director, MENA (Middle East and North Africa), NED (National Endowment for Democracy), 10-13-11
“POMED Notes: Strengthening Arab Democracy: U.S. Assistance after the Uprisings,” http://pomed.org/blog/2011/10/pomed-notes-strengthening-arab-democracy-u-s-assistance-after-the-uprisings.html
Kubba outlined some of the
shortcomings, “is absolutely needed.”
