SKFTA will pass by the end of the month—but new roadblocks could emerge

Southeast Farm Press 9-16 “Senate deal could prompt movement on pending FTAs” http://southeastfarmpress.com/government/senate-deal-could-prompt-movement-pending-ftas

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-
AND
agreements were signed more than four years ago.


Democracy aid to Yemen will be scrutinized heavily and cost political capital

Fox News “Did Qaddafi Deserve U.S. Funding? Foreign Aid Under Scrutiny Amid Mideast Unrest” March 24, 2011, http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/03/24/did-qaddafi-deserve-funding-foreign-aid-scrutiny-amid-mideast-unrest/

If this seems contradictory, welcome to the
AND
, something critics say doesn't exist in Yemen.
Political capital key

Knowledge@Wharton, the online business journal of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, “U.S.-South Korea Trade Pact: A Turning Point for American Exports?”, 1/12/11, http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=2671

With Portman now in the Senate and other
AND
anti-trade Democrats and Tea Party Republicans.
SKFTA key to Asia-Pacific trade and regional stability

L. Gordon Flake, Executive Director of The Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation, and Troy Stangarone, Director of Congressional Affairs and Trade for the Korea Economic Institute, “The KORUS FTA is a Strategic Imperative,” CSIS PacNet, Number 42, August 11, 2011, http://csis.org/files/publication/pac1142.pdf

For most of the summer, Congress has
AND
, and open to commerce among all nations.
Global nuclear war

Jonathan S. Landay, national security and intelligence correspondent, March 10, 2000, Knight Ridder/Tribune News Service, Lexis

Few if any experts think China and Taiwan
AND
last year, according to the Commerce Department.

Democracy assistance props up a neoliberal, imperial drive to impose Western ‘expertise’ on the world

Marion Wood Dixon, doctoral student in sociology at Cornell University, “An Arab spring,” Review of African Political Economy, Vol. 38, No. 128, June 2011, 309–316

The ‘imperial reach’ represents a real threat
AND
popular democracy rooted in social and economic justice.
This triggers interventions to solidify Western control

Gerald Sussman, professor of urban studies and communications at Portland State University and has published widely on the international political economy of information technology, mass media, and development, “The Myths of ‘Democracy Assistance’: U.S. Political Intervention in Post-Soviet Eastern Europe,” Monthly Review, Volume 58, Issue 07 (December 2006),

U.S. interventionism, except perhaps
AND
political spin and other expressions of neocolonial hegemony.
This makes perpetual war inevitable

Claudia von Werlhof, professor of women's studies and political science at the University of Innsbruck, Austria, “The Consequences of Globalization and Neoliberal Policies. What are the Alternatives?” Global Research, February 1, 2008,

The notion that capitalism and democracy are one
AND
“hinders business” (Werlhof 2005 a).
Vote negative to criticize the neoliberal, imperial nature of democracy assistance

Michael Barker, doctoral candidate at Griffith University, Australia, “Hijacking Human Rights,” August 8, 2007,

Fortunately for progressive activists, the answers to
AND
world to promote participatory democracy rather than polyarchy.

1NC

-Saudi
Saudi Arabia fears Yemen democracy—will counteract progressDemocracy Digest, “Saudi Arabia: countervailing power or ‘midwives of change’ in Yemen?” June 6, 2011,

With Yemen finely poised between
AND
expert at the University of Sydney.
Saudi Arabia will break off cooperation—turns the aff

Vali Nasr, Professor of International Politics at Tufts, “Will the Saudis Kill the Arab Spring?,” Bloomberg, May 23, 2011,

The kingdom has emerged as the
AND
, which qualify on neither count.
Saudi cooperation key to Pakistani stability, fighting terrorism, and containing Iran

Steve LeVine, Contributing editor at Foreign Policy, Jan/Feb, 11, “Frenemies Forever,”

The verdict: Guilty. But so
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 trust Washington, can play this role.
Pakistan collapse causes global nuclear war

William Rivers Pitt, internationally bestselling author and New York Times columnist, “Unstable Pakistan threatens the world,” May 8, 2009,

As familiar as this sounds,
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a collision course with unimaginable disaster.
2NC—Saudi
Turns case—Saudi prolif

Ray Takeyh, Iranian-American Middle East scholar, former United States Department of State official, and a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, Adjunct Professor at Georgetown University. “A Post-American Day Dawns in the Mideast,” New York Times, June 8, 2011,

Today, Riyadh and Washington see
AND
 the Saudis from obtaining a bomb of their own.

Saudi Arabia wants to manage the Yemeni transition to ensure stability – they will not tolerate actual democratic progress

Knickmeyer, Former Associated Press bureau chief in Africa, 11
(7/5, Trouble Down South, "Is Saudi Arabia really counter-revolutionary?" The Saudi Counter-Revolution, POMEPS Briefing 5)

For Yemenis, suffering under worsening
AND
 Even in Saudi Arabia, many doubt it.

The United States federal government should shift its economic assistance for Yemen from primarily rural to primarily urban communities, and call for Yemen's government to allow full political participation.
This solves-ensures democratic reformism and stability

Joshua Foust is a fellow at the American Security Project, “How the U.S. Can Best Help Yemen,” The Atlantic, March 3, 2011,

But we're not as reliant on Saleh as
AND
a nice idea but an urgent security priority.

1NC-Counterplan
Text—The United States federal government should solicit local requests for democratic decentralization assistance for Yemen, and fulfill those requests.
Working by consulting local groups and implementing their needs is key to solve and avoids backlash

The Carter Center, non-profit organization at Emory University founded by former president Jimmy Carter, “How U.S. Aid Can Undermine Middle East Democracy Activists,” August 23, 2007, http://www.cartercenter.org/peace/human_rights/defenders/news/syria_iran_feature.html

Many human rights defenders say that
AND
 these kinds of consultations don't take place."
Backlash kills democratization and turns the case

Carl Gershman, president of the National Endowment for Democracy, and Michael Allen, special assistant to the vice-president for government and external relations at NED, “THE ASSAULT ON DEMOCRACY ASSISTANCE,” Journal of Democracy, April 2006, Volume 17, Number 2

Just as this trend has taken root
AND
the advance and consolidation of democracy.

AQAP is not a threat

James Spencer, “A False Dawn for Yemen's Militants,” Foreign Affairs, June 8, 2011,

Throughout Yemen's political crisis, the
AND
group's capability will be lost.
Low risk of terrorism – limited capabilities, inevitable mistakes, and conservative tactics

Michael Levi, fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, January/February, 2008, Stopping Nuclear Terrorism, Foreign Affairs

WHEN STRATEGIES for preventing nuclear
AND
 measures might theoretically be evaded.
Financial costs too high

John Mueller, department of political science at Ohio State University, 1/1/2008, The Atomic Terrorist, p.

Assessing the financial costs. The discussion
AND
 capture or kill the scheming perpetrators.

No nuclear retaliation

Baker Spring, research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, 9/20/2001, p.

Nuclear retaliation is not appropriate
AND
 be able to resort to defensive options.
US won’t overreact

Hank C. Jenkins-Smith 4, PhD. Professor at the George H.W. Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University and Kerry G. Herron, Ph.D. Research Scientist at George H.W. Bush School of Government and Public Service, Texas A&M University, Fall 2004 

Our final contrasting set of expectations
AND
significantly over the following year.
Difficult to weaponize and deliver

Jacqueline Simon, former member of SIPRI Chemical and biological Warfare Project, March, 2002, Implications of the Terror Attacks for the BWC, INESAP Information Bulletin, p. 4-7

The threat posed by chemical and biological
AND
many militaries and terrorist organizations

Tech hurdles to CBW terror are insurmountable

John Mueller, Woody Hates Chair of National Security Studies, Mershon Center, and political science professor at Ohio State University, Overblown, 2006, p.24

Not only has the science about
AND
greatly inhibit their effective use.

Dispersal problems block bioterror

John L. Scherer, Minn.-based freelance writer, edited the yearbook Terrorism: An Annual Survey in 1982-83 and the quarterly Terrorism from 1986 to 2001, “Is terrorism's threat overblown?,” National Affairs, January 2003,

Chemical, biological, and nuclear (CBN)
AND
 would have proved extremely difficult.

Iran nuclearization won’t cause an arms race or war

Gawdat Bahgat is a professor at the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies, National Defense University, “A Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East: Myth or Reality?,” Mediterranean Quarterly 2011 Volume 22, Number 1: 27-40

In this essay I argue against this
AND
 likely to ignite a regional nuclear arms race.
Iran unlikely to proliferate 

James M. Lindsay and Ray Takeyh, April 2010
JAMES M. LINDSAY is Senior Vice President, Director of Studies, and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair at the Council on Foreign Relations. RAY TAKEYH is a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of Guardians of the Revolution: Iran and the World in the Age of the Ayatollahs.  
After Iran Gets the Bomb; Containment and Its Complications,  

The prospect that Iran might transfer
AND
 to deter Iran from acting impetuously.
Turn – Isolating Iran leads to lashout

Max Fisher is an associate editor at The Atlantic, “The Risks of Isolating China,” The Atlantic, September 23, 2010,

Isolation is self-reinforcing. An
AND
more severe, and the cycle repeats.
Iran prolif stabilizes the Middle East—encourages rational decisionmaking

Seth Weinberger, Professor of International Relations and Political Philosophy at the University of Puget Sound, “Why does Iran Want Nuclear Weapons?”, October 2, 2009,

The good news, however, is that
AND
 be able to create regional deterrence.

Iran prolif collapses the NPT

Colin Dueck, assistant prof of poly sci at University of Colorado, and Ray Takeyh, Senior Fellow in Middle East Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, Summer, Political Science Quarterly Volume 122 • Number 2 • Summer 2007 “Iran’s Nuclear Challenge”

Four years after the United States
AND
political alignments of the Middle East.
That is key to solve global prolif

Akira Kimura, Professor, Kagoshima University "What can we do to resolve the crisis in the NPT regime?" 2005 serv.peace.hiroshima-cu.ac.jp/English/anew/KimuraE.pdf

The NPT regime was not established
AND
 Coalition or NPT nonmember nations.
NPT just makes proliferation opaque—increases likelihood of accidental nuclear war

Michael Wesley, Director of the Griffith Asia Pacific Research Institute, “It’s Time to Scrap the NPT,” Journal of International Affairs, 59:3, 2005

By prohibiting proliferation, without the
AND
 with nuclear or radiological weapons.

AT ISRAEL: Nuclearization prevents Israeli strikes

David Morrison. political officer for the Ireland Palestine Solidarity Campaign. “The elephant in the room: Israel's nuclear weapons” The Electronic Intifada, 29 June 2009.

Rulers of Iran don't want their
AND
a supreme effort to acquire them.

Iranian nuclearization won’t lead to a Middle East arms race 

James M. Lindsay and Ray Takeyh, April 2010
JAMES M. LINDSAY is Senior Vice President, Director of Studies, and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair at the Council on Foreign Relations. RAY TAKEYH is a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of Guardians of the Revolution: Iran and the World in the Age of the Ayatollahs.  
After Iran Gets the Bomb; Containment and Its Complications,  

An Iranian nuclear bomb could
AND
 could impose, on nuclear proliferators.
NPT facilitates proliferation due to dual-use tech transfers

Michael Wesley, Director of the Griffith Asia Pacific Research Institute, “It’s Time to Scrap the NPT,” Journal of International Affairs, 59:3, 2005

For many states that have contemplated
AND
 to charges of selectivity, unfairness and politicisation (Jones 1998).
NPT collapse now rather than putting it on life support is key to successful alternative regime and preventing destabilizing prolif

Michael Wesley, Director of the Griffith Asia Pacific Research Institute, “It’s Time to Scrap the NPT,” Journal of International Affairs, 59:3, 2005

Given the pressures towards limited
AND
manage the dangerous consequences of an inevitable process.

No Iran threat-their evidence is blinded by special interests

Zarrabi 11—conducted lectures and seminars on international affairs, particularly in relation to Iran, with focus on US/Iran issues. President, regional chapter of World Affairs Council of San Diego. Author of 2 books about Iran. (Kam, CRYING WOLF, AGAIN?, 9 June 2011, www.payvand.com/news/11/jun/1118.html)

Another round of the annual Israel
AND
with regard to its Palestinian dilemmas.

Obama’s jobs bill will pass and is key to prevent double-dip recession

New York Times, “Bigger Economic Role for Washington,” 9-13-11,

WASHINGTON — Just weeks ago, economists and
AND
important have a chance of winning bipartisan support.”
Political capital key

Rick Cohen, Non Profit Quarterly, “Obama’s Jobs Bill: Ready to Take a Chance Again?,” 9-13-11,

What’s clearer is the fact that without strong
AND
-election campaign—will fail as well.
Double-dip recession likely and triggers prolonged economic downturn

Chris Isidore, CNN Money, “Recession 2.0 would hurt worse,” 8-10-11,

The risk of double dip recession is rising
AND
risk of lasting damage in a new downturn.
U.S. economic collapse causes global instability and nuclear war

Aaron Friedberg, professor of politics and international relations at Princeton University, and Gabriel Schoenfeld, visiting scholar at the Witherspoon Institute, Wall Street Journal, “The Dangers of a Diminished America,” 2008,

One immediate implication of the crisis that began
AND
be the straw that breaks the camel's back.

Democracy assistance means the transfer of funds to democratic groups

Richard Lappin, PhD candidate the Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven, visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade. "What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation," Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, Vol.4, No.1, May (2010):

Democracy assistance can be most accurately defined as

AND

society groups, media groups and political parties.

USFG means the government in Washington D.C.

West’s Legal Dictionary, 1985, p. 744

United States: Usually means the federal government centered in Washington D.C.

Should implies action

American Heritage Dictionary 2000 (Dictionary.com)

should. The will to do something or have something take place: I shall go out if I feel like it. 

Limits are a necessary component of competitive debate

Ruth Lessl Shively, Assoc Prof Polisci at Texas A&M, 2000 Political Theory and Partisan Politics p. 186

To sum up the argument thus far,

AND

conditions necessary to political contest require these judgments.

Precise, agreed-upon definitions are necessary for debate on democracy assistance—lack of clarity prevents clash and effective analysis

Richard Lappin, PhD candidate the Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven, visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade. "What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation," Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, Vol.4, No.1, May (2010):

This article has examined the emergence of democracy

AND

of formulating effective democratic means will remain improbable.

Purely cultural solutions fail.

Carol Boggs Political Science, Southern California 2k “The End of Politics” 250-1

But it is a very deceptive and misleading

AND

antirationalism of Oakeshott’s Burkean muddling-through theories. 

our interpretation is the most empowering and politically useful—better policy-oriented research is necessary to challenge flawed notions in the democracy academic community

Thomas Carothers, VP for Studies at Carnegie, “The Research Imperatives of Democracy Promotion,” American Political Science Association – Comparative Democracy, Vol. 8, No. 3, October 2010, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/October_2010_APSA-CD_2.pdf

Us and them: Another problematic pattern of

AND

and policy practice not just advisable but imperative.

results in political change

John Rawls Political Philosophy, Harvard 2001 “The Law of Peoples: with ‘The Idea of Public Reason Revisited’” Harvard University Press, pg 56-57

How is the ideal of public reason realized

AND

social basis of peace and understanding among peoples.

Academic debate over policy issues like the response to the Arab Spring is critical to shape and improve the direction of policy and correct governmental mis-information--- esoteric abstractions cede the policy process to status-quo interests

Walt 11 – Stephen M. Walt, Professor of International Affairs at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, July 21, 2011, “International Affairs and the Public Sphere,” online: http://publicsphere.ssrc.org/walt-international-affairs-and-the-public-sphere/

Academics can make at least three distinct contributions

AND

than the scholars who produce it might wish.

American public discourse on democracy assistance is crucial to breaking down racial discourse

TELHAMI 5, SHIBLEY Anwar Sadat professor for peace and development, University of Maryland “Democracy: Rising Tide or Mirage” Middle East Policy Vol 12 Issue 2 May 23 2005 Wiley

I think we all agree that, no

AND

sharpness of the clash on the other side.

Micro-power sacrifices the oppressed to neoliberal global hegemony. Political structures are needed for liberation.

Lewis R. Gordon, Director,

AND

, which radicalizes the problem of political responsibility.

(% style="margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: -0.25in;" %) === A.(% style="font: 7pt ~"Times New Roman~";" %) (%%)Interpretation === === Democracy assistance is material transfer to democratic groups working towards a more democratic society === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Richard (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Lappin(%%), PhD candidate the Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven, visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade. "What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation," Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, Vol.4, No.1, May ((% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)2010(%%)): (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)__Democracy assistance can be most accurately defined as__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) __AND__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) __society groups, media groups and political parties.__ === B. Violation. === === 1. Police aid aimed at counter-terrorism is security assistance, not democracy assistance. === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Thomas (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)Carothers(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %), Topic Guru, (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)’4 (% class="MsoNormal" %) Founder & Director, Democracy and Rule of Law Program, Carnegie Endowment, //Critical Mission: Essays on Democracy Promotion//, p. 16 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Strengthening Governing Institutions A fourth point of difference (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) them away from abusive interrogations and other wrongdoing. === 2. The Yemen police program is security assistance. === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) David T. (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)Johnson(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %), (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)Assistant Secretary of State, INL(% class="officialsbureau" %) (Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs), (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)’10 (% class="MsoNormal" %) “FY 2011 (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)Budget Request for (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)//Security Assistance//(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %) Programs(%%),” Statement before the House Appropriations Subcommittee on State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs, April 14. http:~/~/www.state.gov/p/inl/rls/rm/140219.htm. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)Based on a comprehensive(%%) U.S. (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) burden of criminal justice sector development with partners.

=== The United States Department of Defense should === === ~-~-substantially increase its support for community-based policing in Kenya. === === ~-~-in conjunction with USAID, commission studies on existing aid projects in Yemen, as per Mitchell evidence. === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) ~-~-utilize lessons learned from these programs in similar programs in Afghanistan === More studies are necessary~-~--this is what their Mitchell evidence actually advocates. Ensures existing aid becomes more effective === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Mitchell 11(%%) (Robert, Degrees from the University of Michigan, Harvard's China Area Program and Columbia, Foreign Service Officer with USAID, "Yemen: Testing a New Coordinated Approach to Preventive Counterinsurgency," Small Wars Journal, August 1, smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/yemen-testing-a-new-coordinated-approach-to-preventive-counterinsurgency) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Proposed project A32 asks ―what are the (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) -ends solutions to development and security challenges. === Kenya would be an __effective global model__ for community-based policing === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Saferworld(%%), “Implementing community-based policing in Kenya,” February (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)2008 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) The overall aim of this booklet is to (% class="MsoNormal" %) __AND__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) __build the foundations for longer-term progress.__

== (% class="apple-converted-space" style="color: black; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %)1NC~-~--AQAP Advantage(%%) == === (% class="apple-converted-space" style="color: black; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %)Death of Awlaki dooms AQAP(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)New York Times 9/30 (% class="MsoNormal" %) 9/30/11, “US Born Qaeda Leader Killed in Afghanistan,” (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %)SANA,(% class="apple-converted-space" style="color: black; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %)Yemen(% class="apple-converted-space" style="color: black; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %)—(% class="apple-converted-space" style="color: black; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %)Anwar al-(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)__Awlaki__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %)__AND__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %)__, operationally, more important than Bin Laden__(% style="font-size: 8pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %).” === AQAP is not a threat === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) James (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)Spencer(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %),(%%) retired British infantry commander, strategic analyst on political, security, and trade issues of the Middle East and North Africa and is a specialist on Yemen, “A False Dawn for Yemen's Militants,” Foreign Affairs, June 8, (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)2011(%%), (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) __Throughout Yemen's political crisis, the West'__(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)s chief (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)the special operations group's capability will be lost. === Military aid to Yemen gets diverted to fight Houthis === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)World Tribune(%%), “Congress wants to pick Yemen's fights regarding use of U.S. military aid,” July 30, (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)2010(%%), (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)__The need for monitoring has become acute amid__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) resources could be diverted," the report said. === Reform boosts AQAP, and the aff doesn’t solve the core recruitment mechanism === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Browne, 11(%%) – Researcher for RUSI Qatar, received an MA in Near and Middle Eastern Studies in 2010 from the School of Oriental and African Studies, London. He also received a BA in Egyptology and Ancient Near Eastern Studies from Oxford University in 2008. Prior to graduate work at SOAS, Peter spent an academic year studying Arabic in Yemen (Peter, "Regime Change in Yemen," 4/19, http:~/~/www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4DAD6729BFDBF/) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) The economic challenges that Yemen is facing could (% class="MsoNormal" %) __AND__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) __steps down in a year's time__.[12] === Plan doesn’t solve nearly fast enough === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Aaron (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Ng(%%), graduate of the Communications and New Media School at the National University of Singapore, where he is now an instructor, “In Focus: Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the Yemen Uprising,” June (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)2011(%%), http:~/~/www.pvtr.org/pdf/CTTA/2011/CTTA-June11.pdf (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) To eradicate the problem of terrorism in Yemen (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) threat to the West in the near future. (% class="MsoNormal" %) === Low risk of terrorism – limited capabilities, inevitable mistakes, and conservative tactics === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MinimizedText" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt;" %)Michael (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**__Levi__**(% style="font-size: 10pt;" %), fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, January/February, (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**__2008__**(% style="font-size: 10pt;" %), Stopping Nuclear Terrorism, Foreign Affairs (% class="MinimizedText" %) (% style="font-size: 11pt;" %) (% class="CardText" %) WHEN STRATEGIES for preventing nuclear terrorism rely on (% class="CardText" %) __AND__ (% class="CardText" %) __in which those measures might theoretically be evaded__. === No risk of nuclear terrorism === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Francis J. (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Gavin(%%), Professor of International Affairs, University of Texas at Austin, “Same As It Ever Was: Nuclear Alarmism, Proliferation, and the Cold War,” International Security, Winter (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)2010(%%), Vol. 34, No. 3, Pages 7-37 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) NUCLEAR TERRORISM. __The possibility of a terrorist__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) __AND__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) __wisdom on the topic is significantly flawed__.”59 === Alt cause to basing—Sinai === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Robin (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Simcox(%%), “An Emerging Threat: Al-Qaeda In The Sinai Peninsula – Analysis,” , 8- 31- (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)2011(%%). http:~/~/www.eurasiareview.com/an-emerging-threat-al-qaeda-in-the-sinai-peninsula-analysis-31082011/ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="text-decoration: none;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)The Sinai Peninsula(%%) borders both Israel and Gaza (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) US officials in relation to the Eilat attacks. (% class="MsoNormal" %) == 1NC~-~--Oil Impact == === Yemen collapse has zero impact on global oil markets === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Thomas (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)Juneau(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %),(%%) doctoral candidate in political science at Carleton University, “Yemen: Prospects for State Failure- Implications and Remedies,” Middle East Policy, Vol. XVII, No. 3, Fall (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)2010 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)__Yemen__(%%)__ currently (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)accounts for less than 0.(%%)__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) in insurance premiums and transit times and costs. === Other countries have spare reserve capacity === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) The (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Telegraph(%%), February 2, (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)2011(%%), “Saudi Arabia increases oil production to cover Libya loss,” http:~/~/www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/8348629/Saudi-Arabia-increases-oil-production-to-cover-Libya-loss.html (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) The International Energy Agency confirmed on Friday that (% class="MsoNormal" %) __AND__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) __height oil price spike in mid-2008.__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 10pt; page-break-after: avoid;" %) (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**Shutdown is __highly unlikely__, and rerouting shipping would have a __tiny economic effect__** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**__Commodity Online__**(%%), “Suez Canal closure to have minimal impact in USA,” February 11, (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**__2011__**(%%), http:~/~/www.commodityonline.com/news/Suez-Canal-closure-to-have-minimal-impact-in-USA-36401-3-1.html (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) WASHINGTON (Commodity Online): __The (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)impact of(%%)__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) his prepared testimony" (Courtesy: Platts) (% class="MsoNormal" %) === Multiple checks to the impact of oil shocks: === (% class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.25in;" %) (% class="BoldUnderline" %)Economist, 2011(%%) (March 3, 2011, “The 2011 oil shock,” ) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)So far, the (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)shocks to supply (% class="BoldUnderline" %)have (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="BoldUnderline" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="BoldUnderline" %)made clear that they are willing to pump(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %). === Feedback mechanisms prevent oil prices from rising too high: === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.25in;" %) Christopher (% class="BoldUnderline" %)Boucek(%%), 3/31/20(% class="BoldUnderline" %)11(%%) ( associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program, “Oil Prices and Middle East Turmoil: The Economic Consequences” ) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)Though the oil price has risen, Timmer (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)a healthy oil supply may also have helped.

=== Democracy assistance kills relations with SCAF === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Paul (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Richter and(%%) Jeffrey (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Fleishman(%%), Los Angeles Times, “U.S. pro-democracy effort rubs many in Egypt the wrong way,” August 10, (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)2011(%%), http:~/~/www.ivpressonline.com/news/la-fg-us-egypt-20110811,0,4825441,full.story (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Six months after pro-democracy protesters ousted (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) as ambassador to Egypt during the Clinton administration. === Relations key to regional security and the Suez Canal === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Jeffrey (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Martini(%%) is a Middle East research project associate at the RAND Corporation, (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)and(%%) Julie E. (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Taylor(%%) is a political scientist at the RAND Corporation, “Commanding Democracy in Egypt: The Military's Attempt to Manage the Future,” Foreign Affairs, August 25, (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)2011(%%), http:~/~/www.rand.org/commentary/2011/08/25/FA.html (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Yet (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)__the__(%%)__ United States' (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)capacity(%%) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)to advance democratization(%%)__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) the United States can do little to change. === Regional war goes nuclear === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Bruce P. (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Chadwick(%%), PhD, CFA, is principal at Chadwick Global Research and Consulting, an independent consulting firm specializing in macro strategy, including quantitative, emerging market, and SRI research. “Worldview: Summer Perspectives on the Arab Spring,” July 6, (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)2011(%%), http:~/~/post.nyssa.org/nyssa-news/2011/07/summer-perspectives-on-the-arab-spring.html (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) __The United States and Israel can only be__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)//AND// (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)//on a hair-trigger //__will be considerable.__

(% style="margin-top: 0in;" %) === US Democracy assistance budget is finite. === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) **McInerney et al 7-19** (Stephen, Executive Director of POMED and author (% class="MsoNormal" %) of the report; Daniel Brumberg, Senior Adviser to the Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention, United States Institute of Peace; and Michael Ryan, Senior Research Associate, The Jamestown Foundation. The panel was moderated by Cole Bockenfeld, Advocacy Director, POMED, "** **The Federal Budget and Appropriations for FY 2012: Democracy, Governance, and Human Rights in the Middle East,” July 19, 2011). pdf (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) On Tuesday, __the Project on Middle East__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) September, after the FY11 budget is finalized. (% class="MsoNormal" %) **~ ** (% style="margin-top: 0in;" %) === Increasing democracy assistance to Egypt results in cuts to efforts in Russia === (% class="MsoNormal" %) **Gaouette 2-14** (Nicole, “State Department Plans Cuts in Security Funding, Aid,” Bloomberg, February 14, 2011). (% class="MsoNormal" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %) __The $47 billion core budget would cut__ (% class="MsoNormal" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %) depending on developments, administration officials have said. (% class="MsoNormal" %) **~ ** (% style="margin-top: 0in;" %) === That puts assistance to Russia on the chopping block === (% class="MsoNormal" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %) **~ ** (% class="MsoNormal" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %) **Ivanov 3-1 **(Eugene, Russia Beyond the Headlines, “US Government Takes on an Easy Target- Russian NGO’s,” Russia Beyond the Headlines, March 1, 2011). (% class="MsoNormal" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %) **~ ** (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 7.5pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %) **__As the U.S. government debates__** (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 7.5pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %) __AND__ (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 7.5pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %) __support NGOs and human rights organizations in Russia.__ (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 7.5pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %) (% style="text-decoration: none;" %)__ __ === (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt;" %)**USAID funding key to US-Russian cooperation on environmental regulations.**(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)**EBS 2-14 **(Executive Budget Summary, Function 150 and Other International Programs, Department of State, Fiscal Year 2012, February 14, 2011). pdf (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="text-decoration: none;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)US assistance in Eurasia focuses on encouraging the (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)such as(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) health, (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)environment, and(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) trade(%%). === Environmental collapse risks extinction === (% class="MsoNormal" %) **Shahan 9** (Zachary, “,” Eco Localizer, September 24, 2009). http:~/~/ecolocalizer.com/2009/09/24/global-collapse-human-survival-the-planets-boundaries/ (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt;" %)A new study by nearly 30 of the (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt;" %)AND (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt;" %)that are producing real risks to our survival.”

1NC~-~- (% style="margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: -0.25in;" %) === A.(% style="font: 7pt ~"Times New Roman~";" %) (%%)The affirmative must specify beyond “democracy assistance” in order to determine desirability of the plan === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt; text-decoration: none;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Stahn, and Huller, 2007. (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Andreas and Vera, Research Associates at the University of Berlin, “Different actors, different tools? Approaching EU and US democracy promotion in the Mediterranean and the Newly Independent States” Paper prepared for the European Union Studies Association, ] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)It convenes to start with (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)the(%%) actors and (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)through providing expertise, financial and material resources(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %). 2NC~-~-- (% style="margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: -0.25in;" %) === 1.(% style="font: 7pt ~"Times New Roman~";" %) (%%)Their interpretation is unpredictable – democracy assistance is usually qualified with the targeted mechanism === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt; text-decoration: none;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Stahn, and Huller, 2007. (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Andreas and Vera, Research Associates at the University of Berlin, “Different actors, different tools? Approaching EU and US democracy promotion in the Mediterranean and the Newly Independent States” Paper prepared for the European Union Studies Association, ] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) In research on democracy promotion, these aspects (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) to actively take part in domestic political processes. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: -0.25in;" %) === 2.(% style="font: 7pt ~"Times New Roman~";" %) (%%)Without discussing mechanisms – democracy assistance could be bidirectional === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt; text-decoration: none;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Stahn, and Huller, 2007. (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Andreas and Vera, Research Associates at the University of Berlin, “Different actors, different tools? Approaching EU and US democracy promotion in the Mediterranean and the Newly Independent States” Paper prepared for the European Union Studies Association, ] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) All in all, (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)the US also disposes (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)HRDF and indirectly through funding for the NED(%%).

\\

Russia’s gaining influence in the Middle East as a result of the Arab Spring

Robert O. Freedman, Professor of Political Science Emeritus at Baltimore Hebrew University and is currently visiting professor of political science at Johns Hopkins University, “Every bit as confused as the West,” Bitter-lemons international, Middle East Round Table, Edition 23 Volume 9 - July 28, 2011, http://www.bitterlemons-international.org/previous.php?opt=1&id=347#1418

On the other hand, in countries like
AND
matter which side eventually won the civil war.

Plan uniquely causes Russian fears of geopolitical encirclement—they fear a repeat of Libya

Alex Khlebnikov, Dayan Center's 2011 Amira Margalith Summer Research Internship intern and a doctoral candidate at Lobachevsky State University “Why is Russia Standing by Syria?,” Tel Aviv Notes, Volume 5, Number 18, 9-26-11, http://www.dayan.org/pdfim/TA_Notes__KHLEBNIKOV_Russia-Syria_260911.pdf

Russia has important economic interests in Syria.
AND
a scenario which Russia wants to see repeated.
Russia will respond to geopolitical losses in the Middle East by making aggressive moves in Central Asia

Vladimir Radyuhin, Moscow  correspondent of The Hindu, “Russia warns the West against interference,” March 11, 2011, http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/article1526408.ece?homepage=true

Russia believes that the ongoing revolt in West
AND
drills of its peacekeeping forces later this year.
Russian aggression in the periphery causes nuclear war

Stephen J. Blank, Research Professor of National Security Affairs, Strategic Studies Institute, Naval War College, “
Russia and Arms Control: Are There Opportunities for the Obama Administration?,” March 2009

Proliferators or nuclear states like China and Russia
AND
on their neighbors or their own people.172

2NC- Turns case-Russia would destabilize the middle east by increasing arms sales elsewhere

George Friedman, Chief Executive Officer and founder of STRATFOR, “The Medvedev Doctrine and American Strategy,” September 2, 2008, http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/medvedev_doctrine_and_american_strategy

More important, any overt U.S
AND
Islamic world could rapidly spin out of control.

=== Assad won’t fall – loyal military and Iranian support ensure government survival === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Geneive (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Abdo(%%), Liason for the UN Alliance of Civilizations, UN project to improve relations between Western and Islamic societies, previously journalist for publications including The Guardian and Economist, first American journalist to be based in Tehran since US cut ties with Iran in aftermath of 1979 Islamic Revolution, (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)August 25(%%), 2011, “How Iran Keeps Assad in Power in Syria,” Foreign Affairs, published by Council on Foreign Relations, (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %)__For Iran, Assad's Syria is the front__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %)__AND__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white;" %)__will surely try to influence any successive government. __ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; text-decoration: none;" %)__ __ === The U.S. is preparing to respond to Assad’s collapse. Action now would encourage Iranian interference. === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)NYT 9-21(%%)-11(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %) (%%)(Lexis) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) That (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)awareness is fuelling the desire to plan (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) Assad's biggest supporter — (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)an (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)//excuse to intervene//(%%). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; text-decoration: none;" %)__ __ === Assisting the Syrian opposition causes Iranian intervention & war === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Victor (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Kotsev(%%) is a journalist and political analyst based in Tel Aviv, “Iran crisis close to climax?” Asia Times, July 2, (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)2011(%%), http:~/~/www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MG02Ak02.html (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)On the chess-like field of Realpolitik (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)), (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)__it could //easily spiral into a war//__(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; text-decoration: none;" %)__ __ === {{id name="_Toc176764494"/}}Democracy assistance destabilizes Syria by fueling violent repression === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Kevin (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Gosztola(%%), writer and curator of Firedoglake's blog The Dissenter, “US Lacks Credibility to Help Syrian Protesters,” FireDogLake, August 8, (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)2011(%%), http:~/~/dissenter.firedoglake.com/2011/08/08/us-lacks-credibility-to-help-syrian-protesters/ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)__Sending a US envoy to open lines of__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) __AND__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) __should be leading the efforts to assist Syrians.__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) === Engaging the Syrian opposition hurts its credibility & ability to create a stable transition away from Assad === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Peter (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Harling(%%) is the Iraq-Syria-Lebanon project director with the International Crisis Group, “How not to prolong the Syrian agony,” Foreign Policy, (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)8/30(%%)/11, http:~/~/mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/30/how_not_to_prolong_the_syrian_agony (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)__The__(%%) second (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)__mistake to be avoided is for__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) __AND__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) __the protest movement's coattails but in complementing it. __ (% class="MsoNormal" %) === No Syrian civil war coming === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Hussain (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Abdul-Hussain(%%), Washington bureau chief, Alrai newspaper, “There Will Be No Civil War in Syria,” Huffington Post, (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)9-8(%%)-11, http:~/~/www.huffingtonpost.com/hussain-abdulhussain/there-will-be-no-civil-wa_b_952370.html (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)__Despite all the doom and gloom__(%%) __by analysts__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) in the sun without fear from Assad's repression. === No risk of sectarian violence === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Burhan (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Ghalyoun(%%), Professor of Political Sociology at the Sorbonne, interview: “The Syrian People Will Determine the Fate of Syria,” July 26, (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)2011(%%), http:~/~/www.jadaliyya.com/pages/index/2203/the-syrian-people-will-determine-the-fate-of-syria (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) BG: (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)__I do not believe that Syria__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) __AND__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) __they are “planted” by the regime.__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) === No civil war or escalation === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Burhan (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Ghalyoun(%%), Professor of Political Sociology at the Sorbonne, interview: “The Syrian People Will Determine the Fate of Syria,” July 26, (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)2011(%%), http:~/~/www.jadaliyya.com/pages/index/2203/the-syrian-people-will-determine-the-fate-of-syria (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) I believe that when the circumstances mature, (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) is what secures this hesitant group its economic interests (% class="MsoNormal" %) === No escalation-empirics prove === (% class="MsoNormal" %) Kevin (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Drum(%%), Staff Writer for the Washington Monthly, 9/9/20(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)07 (% class="MsoNormal" %) () (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Having admitted, however, that the odds (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) war (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)for a decade. No regional conflagration. === Middle East wars won’t escalate === (% class="MsoNormal" %) Suzanne (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Maloney(%%) [et al.], Senior Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings, “Why the Iraq war won't engulf the Mideast,” 6/28/20(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)07(%%) ) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Yet, the (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)Saudis, Iranians, Jordanians (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)__AND__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)__local conflicts from enveloping the entire Middle East.__

=== Syria-Iran alliance is useless === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Jubin (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Goodarzi(%%), a professor of International Relations at Webster University Geneva, “The Impact of Syria’s Unrest on Iran,” USIP, May 23, (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)2011(%%), http:~/~/iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2011/may/23/impact-syria%E2%80%99s-unrest-iran (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) __The (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)resurgence of Syrian-Iranian power(%%) in__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)__AND__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)__has__(%%)__ many other solid (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)allies in the region(%%)__. === Turn – Isolating Iran leads to lashout === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Max (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Fisher(%%) is an associate editor at The Atlantic, “The Risks of Isolating China,” The Atlantic, September 23, (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)2010(%%), http:~/~/www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2010/09/the-risks-of-isolating-china/63470/ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Isolation is self-reinforcing. (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)__An isolated__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) __AND__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) __isolation more severe, and the cycle repeats.__ === Iran’s losing influence—moderate political actors are coming to power === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Dalia Dassa (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Kaye(%%) is Senior Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation, (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)and(%%) Frederic (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Wehrey(%%) is Senior Policy Analyst at the RAND Corporation, “Arab Spring, Persian Winter,” Foreign Affairs, Jul/Aug (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)2011(%%), Vol. 90, Issue 4 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) __Certainly, the regional shakeup will give Iran__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)__AND__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)__jeopardizing__(%%)__ their nationalist (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)legitimacy by turning to Iran(%%).__ === Iran’s too focused on domestic politics === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Dalia Dassa (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Kaye(%%) is Senior Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation, (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)and(%%) Frederic (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Wehrey(%%) is Senior Policy Analyst at the RAND Corporation, “Arab Spring, Persian Winter,” Foreign Affairs, Jul/Aug (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)2011(%%), Vol. 90, Issue 4 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Finally, (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)__Iran's ability to reap benefits__(%%)__ from__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) __AND__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) __of the region's people or their new governments.__ === Palestinian statehood veto destroys U.S. credibility === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) James M. (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Dorsey(%%) is a Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, “UNSC vote on Palestine State: US Credibility at Stake,” Middle East Online, (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)9-15(%%)-11, http:~/~/www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=48068 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)__THE PALESTINE Authority is preparing to confront__(%%)__ Israel’s__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) presidential elections looming in just over a year. === Multiple human rights alt causes === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Brian (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)Katulis(%%), senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, “Democracy Promotion in the Middle East and the Obama Administration,” (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)2009(%%), (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) More broadly, (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)__the //U//__(%%)nited (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)//S//(%%)tates (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)__should__(%%)__ take__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) __AND__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) __promotion front are perceived throughout the Middle East.__

=== The concept of authority that structures of power have over us is an empty performance. It’s based on an illusion of power – the separation of authority – or power – from the content of the demand – or what is actually asked of us. By sidestepping the question of this relationship of authority – the aff entrenches the master-slave relationship which is the basis for all oppression === (% class="MsoNormal" %) **~ ** (% class="MsoNormal" %) Saul (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lightgrey;" %)Newman(%%) is a postdoctoral fellow and lecturer at the University of Western Australia, Journal for the Psychoanalysis of Culture & Society, Dec (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)200(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lightgrey;" %)4(%%) v9 i3 p298(17) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-family: ~"Garamond~",~"serif~";" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Part of this reconfiguring of radical politics via (% class="MsoNormal" %) __AND__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) __desire __(Lacan, 1977, p 100). === The aff doesn’t hate the status quo – they love it. These barriers to a perfect world – i.e. – the state – are what sustains our revolutionary desires. === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-family: ~"Garamond~",~"serif~";" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Saul (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lightgrey;" %)Newman(%%) is a postdoctoral fellow and lecturer at the University of Western Australia, Journal for the Psychoanalysis of Culture & Society, Dec (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)200(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lightgrey;" %)4(%%) v9 i3 p298(17) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 7pt;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Now, what if it were (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lightgrey;" %)__the case__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) Seminar XVII, Ch 8, p 3). === Demands for liberation, such as that of the Affirmative result in the //opposite// of their stated intention. They make our addiction to the status quo more intense, internal link turning their case. === (% class="MsoNormal" %) **~ ** (% class="MsoNormal" %) Peter (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lightgrey;" %)Starr(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lightgrey;" %),(%%) Professor of Comparative Literature, USC, Tympanum, Issue 1, (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)19(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lightgrey;" %)95(%%), http:~/~/www.usc.edu/dept/comp-lit/tympanum/1/starr.html (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: 0.05in;" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) In short, Lacan's psychotic "trial (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: 0.05in;" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: 0.05in;" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)(24/126)23 ~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*Gender Modified === Since authority can only function by rendering its mechanics invisible, bringing it to light can rob it of its unquestioned power. Our alternative is to overconform to authority as a way of identifying its performative function and highlighting the structures of enjoyment that have caused us to become invested in its operations. === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -0.5in;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -0.5in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lightgrey;" %)Krips(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lightgrey;" %),(%%) Prof. @ Univ. of Pittsburgh, (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)200(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lightgrey;" %)4 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -0.5in;" %) Henry, “COUCHING POLITICS: ZIZEK’S RULES FOR RADICALS,” from Psychoanalysis, Culture & Society, Pg. 126-141 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -0.9pt;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -0.9pt;" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)Zizek argues for a paradoxical political strategy: (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -0.9pt;" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -0.9pt;" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)Phantasies, p. 29).~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*Gender Modified~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*

=== Payroll tax cuts & unemployment benefits will pass === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)AP 10-25(%%) “For Obama, new focus on the piecemeal” (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) __The president__ who ran for office promising sweeping (% class="MsoNormal" %) __AND__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) __be among the few strategies he has left.__ === Syrian democracy assistance costs massive amounts of political capital === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) John (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Hannah(%%), “Obama and Syria: courting disaster,” Foreign Policy, May 11, (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)2011(%%), http:~/~/shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/05/11/obama_and_syria_courting_disaster_0 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) The (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)__network of contacts__(%%)__, political, military__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) , we must, try to do better. === Political capital key === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Philadelphia Inquirer 9-8(%%)-11 “POINT: Don't expect miracles on job growth” http:~/~/articles.philly.com/2011-09-08/news/30130709_1_jobs-plan-american-economy-rare-tax (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Yet (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)__Republicans say that job-creating efforts__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) made a major effort to privatize Social Security. === Key to the economy === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Christian E. (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Weller(%%) is an Associate Professor at the Department of Public Policy and Public Affairs, University of Massachusetts, Boston, and a Senior Fellow at Center for American Progress. “New Republic: Why We Need Payroll Tax Cuts,” NPR, (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)9-12(%%)-11, http:~/~/www.npr.org/2011/09/12/140393524/new-republic-why-we-need-payroll-tax-cuts (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) __The (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)centerpiece of the jobs plan(%%)__ unveiled by (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)__AND__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)__but //sustainable and long-lasting economic growth.//__ === Economic collapse causes global instability and nuclear war === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="text-decoration: none;" %)__ __ (% class="MsoNormal" %) Aaron (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Friedberg(%%), professor of politics and international relations at Princeton University, (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)and(%%) Gabriel (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Schoenfeld(%%), visiting scholar at the Witherspoon Institute, //Wall Street Journal//, “The Dangers of a Diminished America,” (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)2008(%%), http:~/~/online.wsj.com/article/SB122455074012352571.html (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)__One immediate implication of the crisis that began__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)__AND__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)__be the straw that breaks the camel's back__(%%).

((( (% style="line-height: 19px;" %)Israel is pushing for an Iran strike but the US has successfully persuaded them to hold back ))) ((( ))) ((( (% style="line-height: 19px;" %)Roshandel, Professor - Security Studies - ECU, 11 ))) ((( (% style="line-height: 19px;" %)(June, Iran, Israel and the United States: Regime Security vs. Political Legitimacy, pg. 138-140) DLP WPT PAT ))) ((( ))) ((( (% style="line-height: 19px;" %)It is clear from this statement that the ))) ((( (% style="line-height: 19px;" %)AND ))) ((( (% style="line-height: 19px;" %)agenda, particularly its dealings with Iran. ))) ((( ))) ((( (% style="line-height: 19px;" %)They perceive Muslim Brotherhood engagement as abandonment of the alliance ))) ((( ))) ((( (% style="line-height: 19px;" %)Alan M. Dershowitz, Prof law Harvard,2011 ))) ((( (% style="line-height: 19px;" %)Felix Frankfurter Professor of Law, Harvard Law School, February 5"Lessons From Egypt: The United States Can Count On Israel, But Can Israel Count on the United States?" Hudson Institute, , http:~/~/www.hudson-ny.org/1865/lessons-for-egypt ))) ((( ))) ((( (% style="line-height: 19px;" %)But recent events in the Mideast, particularly ))) ((( (% style="line-height: 19px;" %)AND ))) ((( (% style="line-height: 19px;" %)a kind of policeman to the entire world. ))) ((( ))) ((( (% style="line-height: 19px;" %)This inflates fears that the U.S. won’t back Israel against Iran ))) ((( ))) ((( (% style="line-height: 19px;" %)Koppel 11 ))) ((( (% style="line-height: 19px;" %)(Ted Koppel 4 ))) ((( (% style="line-height: 19px;" %)AND ))) ((( (% style="line-height: 19px;" %)region, Washington's list also keeps getting shorter. ))) ((( (% style="line-height: 19px;" %)It’s a triggering incident for an Israeli strike ))) ((( ))) ((( (% style="line-height: 19px;" %)Roshandel, Professor - Security Studies - ECU, 11 ))) ((( (% style="line-height: 19px;" %)(June, Iran, Israel and the United States: Regime Security vs. Political Legitimacy, pg. 86) DLP WPT PAT ))) ((( ))) ((( (% style="line-height: 19px;" %)According to some within the Israeli Government, ))) ((( (% style="line-height: 19px;" %)AND ))) ((( (% style="line-height: 19px;" %)of an Israeli strike may become more realistic. ))) ((( (% style="line-height: 19px;" %)Israeli attack causes great power war and crushes the global economy ))) ((( (% style="line-height: 19px;" %)Trabanco 09 ))) ((( (% style="line-height: 19px;" %)(José Miguel Alonso Trabanco, Independent researcher of geopoltical and military affairs, degree in International Relations from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Studies, Mexico City "The Middle Eastern Powder Keg Can Explode at Anytime," globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=11762) DLP WPT PAT ))) ((( ))) ((( (% style="line-height: 19px;" %)In case of an Israeli and/ ))) ((( (% style="line-height: 19px;" %)AND ))) ((( (% style="line-height: 19px;" %)right in the middle of a powder keg. ))) ((( )))

**Neg: Cornell CW** (% class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: normal;" %)Round 5(%%) (% class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: normal;" %)vs team: UNT QS(%%) (% class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: normal;" %)Judge: Mendenhall(%%) (% class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: normal;" %)Off Case Args%%) (% class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: normal;" %)EU CP(%%) (% class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: normal;" %)Neolib K(%%) (% class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: normal;" %)Foreign Aid DA(%%) (% class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: normal;" %)China DA(%%) \\(% class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: normal;" %)Case Args%%) (% class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: normal;" %)multilat- no impact, alt caus, resilient(%%) (% class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: normal;" %)terrorism- no impact(%%) (% class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: normal;" %)solvency- libya doesn't want aid(%%) \\(% class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: normal;" %)Block Strategy%%) (% class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: normal;" %)2NC- solvency, terrorism adv, multilat adv, EU cp, kicked k(%%) (% class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: normal;" %)1NR- finished solvency, multilat (warming d), kicked china, foreign aid da(%%) \\(% class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: normal;" %)2NR: terrorism adv, multilat adv, foreign aid da == (% class="Underline" %)Neg: Cornell University CW(%%) == == (% class="Underline" %)Round # 1 Tournament:Shirley(%%) == == (% class="Underline" %)Vs Team: Trinity GM(%%) == == (% class="Underline" %)Judge: Justin Stanley(%%) == (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none;" %) === (% class="Underline" %)Off Case Args%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Russia influence DA (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)EU CP (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Democracy Assistance/Orientalism K (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Foreign Aid DA (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none;" %) === (% class="Underline" %)Case Args%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Stability: no civil war coming (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)No escaliation (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)No leadership among opposition (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Assisting Syrian opposition ~-~--> Iran Intervention and war (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Credibility: alt causes to credibility (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Alt causes to human rights (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none;" %) === (% class="Underline" %)Block Strategy%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)2nc: Russia da (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Cred advantage (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Stability adv (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)1nr: kicked EU (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Kicked k (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Foreign aid da (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none;" %) === (% class="Underline" %)2nr Strategy%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Case-stability advantage and cred advantage (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Foreign Aid DA

(% style="margin-left: 0.25in; text-indent: -0.25in;" %) === X. Feminism. === (% style="margin-left: 0.25in; text-indent: -0.25in;" %) === __#. The label “feminist”__ - used in several 1AC tags - denies people’s ability to define their identities. Many reject the idea and the label. === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Omayma (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Abdellatif and(%%) Marina (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Ottaway(%%), Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “Women in Islamist Movements: Toward an Islamist Model of Women’s Activism,” June (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)’7(%%), http:~/~/carnegieendowment.org/files/cmec2_women_in_islam_final1.pdf (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Rejection of “Feminism” (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)__Interviews with women__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) caveats to differentiate it sharply from Western feminism. (% style="margin-left: 0.25in; text-indent: -0.25in;" %) === __X. International Community__. This amorphous phrase falsely conjures the image of a benevolent power. What’s worse, the 1AC’s tag equates this community with the US, effecting American colonization of every nation on earth. Underprivileged peoples who are acted upon - like the objects of the plan - are literally defined out of the world of nations. === (% style="margin-left: 0.25in; text-indent: -0.25in;" %) === #. The abstract phrase “international community” obscures agency, motives, and outcome. === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 6pt;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)Gowers(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %), (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)Editor, Financial Times(%%), (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)’2 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)Andrew, Sep. 1: “The Power of Two,” (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-variant: small-caps;" %)Foreign Policy(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %), http:~/~/www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2002/09/01/the_power_of_two [ACG USC] (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 6pt;" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)It's one of those phrases that trips(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) lightly (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 6pt;" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 6pt;" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %), as well as its capacity to act. (% style="margin-left: 0.25in; text-indent: -0.25in;" %) === #. Conflation of the international community with the U.S. ensures that Washington’s policies are never seen as defying the world’s interests. This justifies neoliberal imperialism. Challenging the way the U.S. lets itself off the hook is more important than encouraging action on behalf of others. === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;" %) JPW PLS: This proves the AFF does what its ILGA and Zine evidence criticizes - constructing others as passive victims - defining them out of the international community. (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 6pt;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)Chomsky(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %), Linguistics Prof, MIT, (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)’2 (% class="MsoNormal" %) Noam, Sep. 1: “The Crimes of 'Intcom',” http:~/~/www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2002/09/01/the_crimes_of_intcom?page=full [ACG CST] (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 6pt;" %) The philosopher Ludwig (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)Wittgenstein advised readers to attend (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 6pt;" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 6pt;" %) including analogues that are not pleasant to recall. (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 6pt;" %) (% style="margin-left: 0.25in; text-indent: -0.25in;" %) === __X. Challenge essentialism__. Our argument is so true that we barely even have to make it. === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 6pt;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)Kienle(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %), (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)Arab and Muslim Studies Prof(%%), (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)’5 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)Eberhard, Institute for Research and Studies on the Arab and Muslim World, National Center for Scientific Research, France [IRERAM = Institut de Recherches et d’Études sur le Monde Arabe et Musulman; CNRS = Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique], “Analyzing ‘Arab’ Politics: Students of Politics in Foreign Lands,” (% style="font-size: 8pt; text-transform: uppercase;" %)History & Anthropology,(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) 16 (1-Mar): 31-46, doi:10.1080/02757200500061434, p. 32 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) In spite of numerous excellent contributions and promising (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) may be dependent as much as independent variables.

(% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 10pt; page-break-after: avoid;" %) (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**Interpretation ~-~-- Democracy assistance is aid to groups working towards a democratic society** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Richard (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**__Lappin__**(%%), PhD candidate the Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven, visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade. "What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation," Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, Vol.4, No.1, May ((% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**__2010__**(%%)): (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)__Democracy assistance can be__(%%)__ most accurately (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)defined as(%%)__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) __AND__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) __society groups, media groups and political parties.__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) === Violation~-~--supporting a dialogue is distinct from democracy assistance === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Susanne (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Gratius(%%), Researcher at FRIDE, “Assessing Democracy Assistance: Venezuela,” May (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)2010(%%), http:~/~/www.centrodealerta.org/documentos_desclasificados/fride_report_on_funding_in_.pdf (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Spain’s alliance with the government has been criticised (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)//AND// (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)//promoting a dialogue//(%%)__ between government and civil society.__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="text-decoration: none;" %)__ __ === Support for women’s groups includes purely rhetorical moves === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Isobel (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Coleman(%%) is Senior Fellow and Director of the Civil Society, Markets, and Democracy Initiative and Director of the Women and Foreign Policy Program at the Council on Foreign Relations. “On the Front Lines of Change: Women in the Arab Uprisings,” POMED, July 26, (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)2011(%%), http:~/~/pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/Policy-Brief_Coleman.pdf (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Consistent with her broader theme of putting women (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) the inclusion of women in transitions towards democracy. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="text-decoration: none;" %)__ __ === Limits—they expand the scope of the topic to include diplomatic maneuvers, economic measures, high-level pressure, random commissions, etc. with random unpredictable groups === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Lincoln A. (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lightgrey;" %)Mitchell(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lightgrey;" %), (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)International Politics Prof, Columbia(%%), (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lightgrey;" %)and(%%) David L. (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lightgrey;" %)Phillips(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lightgrey;" %), (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)Project Director, NCAFP(%%) (National Committee on American Foreign Policy), (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lightgrey;" %)’8 (% class="MsoNormal" %) Enhancing Democracy Assistance: A Research Project of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy AND Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies, School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University AND The Atlantic Council of the United States, , pp. 11-12 [WPT TRN] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.25in; text-indent: -0.25in;" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-family: ~"Book Antiqua~",~"serif~"; text-decoration: none;" %)-(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="text-decoration: none; font: 7pt ~"Times New Roman~";" %) (%%)//Advocate Democracy (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lightgrey;" %)Diplomatic tools//(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lightgrey;" %) can (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lightgrey;" %)//promote//(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lightgrey;" %) democracy by (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.25in; text-indent: -0.25in;" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-family: ~"Book Antiqua~",~"serif~"; text-decoration: none;" %)-(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="text-decoration: none; font: 7pt ~"Times New Roman~";" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lightgrey;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.25in; text-indent: -0.25in;" %) (% style="font-family: ~"Book Antiqua~",~"serif~";" %)-(% style="font: 7pt ~"Times New Roman~";" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lightgrey;" %)activities(%%) including Fulbright Fellowships and International Visitors Programs. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) === Vagueness—“support” doesn’t mandate a topical action. This could include a number of contradictory actions which makes the desirability of the plan impossible to determine. === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt; text-decoration: none;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Stahn, and Huller, 2007. (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Andreas and Vera, Research Associates at the University of Berlin, “Different actors, different tools? Approaching EU and US democracy promotion in the Mediterranean and the Newly Independent States” Paper prepared for the European Union Studies Association, ] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)It convenes to start with (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)the(%%) actors and (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)through providing expertise, financial and material resources(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %).

=== The United States federal government should establish a program that makes available support for dialogue on gendered processes of democratization in topically designated countries. The government should determine eligibility for access to resources based on local needs assessments. === === __1. Competition__. The plan supports ALL dialogues, whether or not local assessments determine that they’re necessary. The counterplan supports a smaller set of dialogues. In other words, it’s __less than the plan__. === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 10pt; page-break-after: avoid;" %) (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**__2. Solvency & Net Benefit__.** (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 10pt; page-break-after: avoid;" %) (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**A. Responsiveness to local needs eliminates perceived imposition of a “foreign agenda” and maximizes program impact.** (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 6pt;" %) (% style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)**__Kausch__**(%%), Researcher, FRIDE, (% style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)**__’10__** (% class="MsoNormal" %) Kristina, May: “Assessing Democracy Assistance: Egypt,” FRIDE Project Report, http:~/~/www.fride.org/download/IP_WMD_Egypt_ENG_jul10.pdf, p. 12 [JPW CST] (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 6pt;" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)A very common criticism(%%) from both non- (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 6pt;" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 6pt;" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)a (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)//local needs assessment//(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %) developed through (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)//genuine dialogue//(%%). === B. Perception of foreign intervention collapses the legitimacy and effectiveness of recipient groups. === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) The (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Carter Center(%%), non-profit organization at Emory University founded by former president Jimmy Carter, “How U.S. Aid Can Undermine Middle East Democracy Activists,” August 23, (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)2007(%%), http:~/~/www.cartercenter.org/peace/human_rights/defenders/news/syria_iran_feature.html (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Many human rights defenders say that (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)//rather than// (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) when these kinds of consultations don't take place." (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 6pt;" %) === __C. Gender-specific__. Attention to recipients’ demands and priorities builds synergies among different organizations. === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)Santini(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %), (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)Brookings(%%), (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)’11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) Ruth Hanau; Visiting Fellow, Center on the United States and Europe – expert in European foreign policy, international security and Middle Eastern politics; Nov. 10: “What Women’s Rights Tell Us About the Arab Spring,” US – EUROPE ANALYSIS SERIES NUMBER 52, http:~/~/www.brookings.edu/~~/media/Files/rc/papers/2011/1110_arab_awakening_women_santini/1101_arab_awakening_women_santini.pdf (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Hence, this might not be the time (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) , diminishing the impact of all EU policies.

1.   UN Women has prioritized grant applications from topic countries. This post-dates all their cards calling for support by five months.

Chakrabarti, UN Women, 10-16-11

Oisika; Media Specialist: “UN Women, through the Fund for Gender Equality, Kicks Off New Call for Proposals on Women’s Empowerment in Arab States,” [ACG USC]

UN Women’s Fund for Gender Equality, a

AND

.

2.   UN Women supports exchanges and coordinates action.

UNDP ’11

“UN WOMEN: REGIONAL PROGRAMME COORDINATOR”, http://jobs.undp.org/cj_view_job.cfm?cur_job_id=25049

Grounded in the vision of equality enshrined in

AND

cross-cutting actions at the national level.

3. Turn: Donor competition. Overabundance of CSO funding undermines project coordination.

Kausch, Researcher, FRIDE, ’10

Kristina, May: “Assessing Democracy Assistance: Egypt,” FRIDE Project Report, http://www.fride.org/download/IP_WMD_Egypt_ENG_jul10.pdf, p. 9 [JPW CST]

Civil society projects in the areas of democracy

AND

coordination with donors active in the same sectors.

4. Turn: Over-funding and lack of coordination are counterproductive.

Kausch, Researcher, FRIDE, ’10

Kristina, May: “Assessing Democracy Assistance: Egypt,” FRIDE Project Report, http://www.fride.org/download/IP_WMD_Egypt_ENG_jul10.pdf, p. 12 [JPW CST]

A very common criticism from both non-

AND

a local needs assessment developed through genuine dialogue.

5. Turn: Funding infusions corrupt civil society.

Kausch, Researcher, FRIDE, ’10

Kristina, May: “Assessing Democracy Assistance: Egypt,” FRIDE Project Report, http://www.fride.org/download/IP_WMD_Egypt_ENG_jul10.pdf, p. 9 [JPW CST]

On the other side, many donors complain

AND

of money, but of commitment and efficiency.

6. Direct U.S. assistance to women’s groups triggers backlash and skepticism. Local ownership and proven programs are critical.

Santini, Brookings, ’11

Ruth Hanau; Visiting Fellow, Center on the United States and Europe – expert in European foreign policy, international security and Middle Eastern politics; Nov. 10: “What Women’s Rights Tell Us About the Arab Spring,” US – EUROPE ANALYSIS SERIES NUMBER 52, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2011/1110_arab_awakening_women_santini/1101_arab_awakening_women_santini.pdf

Institutions like the National Democratic Institute and the

AND

the habitual bias in favor of big cities.

2NC:

Some of the groups would not participate.

As'ad AbuKhalil is an associate professor of political science at California State University, Stanislaus, and a research fellow at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at the University of California, Berkeley. “Women in the Middle East,” Foreign Policy in Focus, October 11, 2005, http://www.fpif.org/reports/women_in_the_middle_east

Many private philanthropic organizations in the West have

AND

such groups often detest and suspect American funding.

Technical and procedural issues are easy to resolve.

Kausch, Researcher, FRIDE, ’10

Kristina, May: “Assessing Democracy Assistance: Egypt,” FRIDE Project Report, http://www.fride.org/download/IP_WMD_Egypt_ENG_jul10.pdf, p. 19 [JPW CST]

The factors that, according to local democracy

AND

design, or at least ‘benign neglect’.

Congress will tentatively raise the Export-Import bank lending cap now, which is key to the economy

Wall Street Journal 2-23 “Business Groups Urge Congress To Act On Ex-Im Bank, See Risk Of March Cap Hit” http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120223-715321.html

Business groups are pressing with increasing urgency for

AND

with China and other countries on export financing.

Obama’s political capital is key

USA Today ’12 “Export-Import Bank reauthorization delayed,” 1-13, http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/story/2012-01-11/export-import-bank-republicans-airlines/52523426/1

U.S. exporters and major airline

AND

lobbying efforts to make their case to Congress.

U.S. key to the global economy

Washington Times ’11 “Obama: U.S. growth key to global recovery,” 10-28, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/oct/28/obama-us-growth-key-global-recovery/

Setting the tone for his trip to the

AND

and increase U.S. economic growth.”

Economic collapse causes global nuclear war.

Merlini, Senior Fellow, Brookings, ’10

Cesare, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe, Apr.: “A Post-Secular World?” Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, 53(2): 117-130, doi:10.1080/00396338.2011.571015, p. 124 [CSU]

Two neatly opposed scenarios for the future of

AND

converging with secular absolutes such as unbridled nationalism.

Inherency

The US is providing democratic advisory support to Libya.

USAID 12-7-11

“Transition Initiatives: Libya,” http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/cross-cutting_programs/transition_initiatives/country/libya/index.html [ACG D8T]

Dates of Program: July 2011 - Present

AND

Middle East Program Assistant, 202-712-0811, sperkinson@usaid.gov.

U.S. already providing aid/advice

Washington Post 10-18, “Hillary Rodham Clinton tells Libyans: ‘We’re on your side’,” http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/clinton-arrives-in-libya-bearing-aid-and-encouragement/2011/10/18/gIQAD5rmtL_story.html

In a historic visit punctuated by celebratory gunfire

AND

have disappeared amid the chaos of recent fighting.

Diplomats are already standing by

Jennifer Bendery, covered the White House and Congressional leadership for three years at Roll Call before coming to HuffingtonPost, 10-25-11

“Obama Unlikely To Sink Money Into Rebuilding Libya, Experts Say,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/25/obama-rebuilding-libya_n_936852.html

The president also emphasized that the transitional government

AND

National Transitional Council] to support that outcome."

NDI has already sent teams of experts

Les Campbell, NDI director for Middle East and North Africa programs, ‘11

“NOTES FROM BENGHAZI: LIBYANS HUNGRY FOR INFORMATION AND HELP,” 5-13, http://www.ndi.org/notes-from-Benghazi-Libya

In early May, NDI sent a team

AND

the Algerian Scouts organization and they were intrigued.

Solvency

The NTC already has democratic expertise

CIGI—Centre for International Governance Innovation, ‘11

“Libya needs to remain united to succeed post-Gadhafi: experts,” 10-20, http://www.cigionline.org/articles/2011/10/libya-post-gadhafi-experts

Libya does have significant advantages to help it

AND

of the Canadian Libyan Council of achieving democracy.

More advisory support overwhelms the NTC and hinders democracy

Michael Allen, former NED head and editor of Democracy Digest, “With Gadhafi’s end, Libya’s power struggle begins,” 10-20-11, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/10/with-gadhafis-end-libyas-power-struggle-begins/

Pre-emptive measures can help avoid potential

AND

that they lack the capacity to effectively use;

The advice is useless and counterproductive

Nathan J. Brown is a professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University and nonresident senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Americans, put away your quills,” Foreign Policy, 11-8-11, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/11/08/americans_put_away_your_quills

Later this month, the representatives just elected

AND

aggressively into the politics of building democratic orders.

Top-down democracy aid fails.

Jackson School Task Force ’11

Michelle Astengo & Grace Oh, Task Force on the Future of U.S. Democracy Promotion, Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies, Washington University, Mar. 10: The Future of U.S. Democracy Promotion: Strategies for a Sustainable Fourth Wave of Democratization, https://dlib.lib.washington.edu/dspace/handle/1773/16487, p. 266

U.S. democracy assistance thus far

AND

lack of local participation, are not resolved.

TURN: Backlash.

More aid triggers political backlash. Returns aren’t linear.

Goldsmith, Policy Studies Prof, UMass-Boston, ’7

Arthur A., Summer/Fall: “Democratization in the 21st Century: What Can the United States Do?” The Whitehead Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations, http://blogs.shu.edu/diplomacy/files/archives/Goldsmith.pdf, pp. 6-7 [ACG UTA]

Only if the relationship between democracy aid and

AND

-7] impede rather than help democratization.

Backlash kills democratization and turns the case.

Carl Gershman, president of the National Endowment for Democracy, and Michael Allen, special assistant to the vice-president for government and external relations at NED, “THE ASSAULT ON DEMOCRACY ASSISTANCE,” Journal of Democracy, April ’6, Volume 17, Number 2 [JPW]

Just as this trend has taken root in

AND

threat to the advance and consolidation of democracy.

TURN: Practitioners are clueless.

McFaul, Director, CDDRL, Stanford, ’6

Michael, et al., CDDRL = Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law: Evaluating International Influences on Democratic Transitions: Concept Paper, http://iis-db.stanford.edu/res/2278/Evaluating_International_Influences_-_Transitions_-_Concept_Paper.pdf [ACG MNM]

Finally, senior policymakers wishing, or compelled

AND

in the democracy promotion do not yet exist.

US is better out of the way – aid becomes politicized, triggers backlash and kills the transition

Lacher 8-29,

[Wolfram, "The International Role in Post-Qadhafi Libya? Withdraw." Associate, Middle East and Africa Division, German Institute for International and Security Affairs, (2011 www.mepc.org/articles-commentary/commentary/international-role-post-qadhafi-libya-withdraw) [PAT]

Planning is ongoing in Western capitals for a

AND

responsibility for the process ahead to the Libyans.