1NC-Politics
SKFTA will pass by the end of the month—but new roadblocks could emerge

Southeast Farm Press 9-16 “Senate deal could prompt movement on pending FTAs” http://southeastfarmpress.com/government/senate-deal-could-prompt-movement-pending-ftas

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-
AND
agreements were signed more than four years ago.


Democracy aid to Yemen will be scrutinized heavily and cost political capital

Fox News “Did Qaddafi Deserve U.S. Funding? Foreign Aid Under Scrutiny Amid Mideast Unrest” March 24, 2011, http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/03/24/did-qaddafi-deserve-funding-foreign-aid-scrutiny-amid-mideast-unrest/

If this seems contradictory, welcome to the
AND
, something critics say doesn't exist in Yemen.
Political capital key

Knowledge@Wharton, the online business journal of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, “U.S.-South Korea Trade Pact: A Turning Point for American Exports?”, 1/12/11, http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=2671

With Portman now in the Senate and other
AND
anti-trade Democrats and Tea Party Republicans.
SKFTA key to Asia-Pacific trade and regional stability

L. Gordon Flake, Executive Director of The Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation, and Troy Stangarone, Director of Congressional Affairs and Trade for the Korea Economic Institute, “The KORUS FTA is a Strategic Imperative,” CSIS PacNet, Number 42, August 11, 2011, http://csis.org/files/publication/pac1142.pdf

For most of the summer, Congress has
AND
, and open to commerce among all nations.
Global nuclear war

Jonathan S. Landay, national security and intelligence correspondent, March 10, 2000, Knight Ridder/Tribune News Service, Lexis

Few if any experts think China and Taiwan
AND
last year, according to the Commerce Department.
1NC-Kritik
Democracy assistance props up a neoliberal, imperial drive to impose Western ‘expertise’ on the world

Marion Wood Dixon, doctoral student in sociology at Cornell University, “An Arab spring,” Review of African Political Economy, Vol. 38, No. 128, June 2011, 309–316

The ‘imperial reach’ represents a real threat
AND
popular democracy rooted in social and economic justice.
This triggers interventions to solidify Western control

Gerald Sussman, professor of urban studies and communications at Portland State University and has published widely on the international political economy of information technology, mass media, and development, “The Myths of ‘Democracy Assistance’: U.S. Political Intervention in Post-Soviet Eastern Europe,” Monthly Review, Volume 58, Issue 07 (December 2006), http://monthlyreview.org/2006/12/01/the-myths-of-democracy-assistance-u-s-political-intervention-in-post-soviet-eastern-europe

U.S. interventionism, except perhaps
AND
political spin and other expressions of neocolonial hegemony.
This makes perpetual war inevitable

Claudia von Werlhof, professor of women's studies and political science at the University of Innsbruck, Austria, “The Consequences of Globalization and Neoliberal Policies. What are the Alternatives?” Global Research, February 1, 2008, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=7973

The notion that capitalism and democracy are one
AND
“hinders business” (Werlhof 2005 a).
Vote negative to criticize the neoliberal, imperial nature of democracy assistance

Michael Barker, doctoral candidate at Griffith University, Australia, “Hijacking Human Rights,” August 8, 2007, http://www.zcommunications.org/hijacking-human-rights-by-michael-barker

Fortunately for progressive activists, the answers to
AND
world to promote participatory democracy rather than polyarchy.

1NC-Saudi
Saudi Arabia fears Yemen democracy—will counteract progress

Democracy Digest, “Saudi Arabia: countervailing power or ‘midwives of change’ in Yemen?” June 6, 2011, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/06/saudi-arabia-countervailing-power-or-midwives-of-change-in-yemen/

With Yemen finely poised between transition and regression
AND
a Yemen expert at the University of Sydney.
Saudi Arabia will break off cooperation—turns the aff

Vali Nasr, Professor of International Politics at Tufts, “Will the Saudis Kill the Arab Spring?,” Bloomberg, May 23, 2011, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-23/will-the-saudis-kill-the-arab-spring-.html

The kingdom has emerged as the leader of
AND
and Morocco, which qualify on neither count.
Saudi cooperation key to Pakistani stability, fighting terrorism, and containing Iran

Steve LeVine, Contributing editor at Foreign Policy, Jan/Feb, 11, “Frenemies Forever,” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/01/02/opening_gambit_frenemies_forever

The verdict: Guilty. But so what
AND
not trust Washington, can play this role.
Pakistan collapse causes global nuclear war

William Rivers Pitt, internationally bestselling author and New York Times columnist, “Unstable Pakistan threatens the world,” May 8, 2009, http://www.arabamericannews.com/news/index.php?mod=article&cat=commentary&article=2183

As familiar as this sounds, it did
AND
world on a collision course with unimaginable disaster.

1NC-Counterplan
The United States federal government should shift its economic assistance for Yemen from primarily rural to primarily urban communities, and call for Yemen's government to allow full political participation.
This solves-ensures democratic reformism and stability

Joshua Foust is a fellow at the American Security Project, “How the U.S. Can Best Help Yemen,” The Atlantic, March 3, 2011, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/03/how-the-us-can-best-help-yemen/71960/

But we're not as reliant on Saleh as
AND
a nice idea but an urgent security priority.

Yemen War Advantage
Yemen collapse has zero impact on global oil markets

Thomas Juneau, doctoral candidate in political science at Carleton University, “Yemen: Prospects for State Failure- Implications and Remedies,” Middle East Policy, Vol. XVII, No. 3, Fall 2010

Yemen currently accounts for less than 0.
AND
in insurance premiums and transit times and costs.
Other countries have spare reserve capacity

The Telegraph, February 2, 2011, “Saudi Arabia increases oil production to cover Libya loss,” http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/8348629/Saudi-Arabia-increases-oil-production-to-cover-Libya-loss.html

The International Energy Agency confirmed on Friday that
AND
height oil price spike in mid-2008.
They don’t want U.S. assistance and won’t accept it

Glevum Associates LLC, “2011 Yemen Stability Survey,” March 2011

Yemenis are angry and this impacts how they
AND
% very unfavorable / 43% somewhat unfavorable).
Economic decline doesn’t cause war

Niall Ferguson, professor of history at Harvard University, The Next War of the World, Foreign Affairs 85.5, 2006

There are many unsatisfactory explanations for why the
AND
severe economic crises were not followed by wars.
Empirical studies show no causal relationship between economic decline and war

Morris Miller, professor of economics at the University of Ottawa, “Poverty: A Cause of War?” 2001, http://archive.peacemagazine.org/v17n1p08.htm

Library shelves are heavy with studies focused on
AND
using one form of violence to abort another)."
Yemeni opposition can’t push Saleh out – too many internal disputes remain

Laura Kasinof, 9-7, 2011, The New York Times, "Yemen’s Leaders Fail for Second Time to Resolve Stalemate"
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/08/world/middleeast/08yemen.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss

Hampered by internal divisions, leaders in Yemen’s
AND
” for carrying out a transfer of power.
Too many challenges prevent US aid from being effective

Jeremy M. Sharp, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, "Yemen: Background and U.S. Relations" Congressional Research Service 3/22/11, http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/159782.pdf

There are a number of challenges to expanded
AND
been proffered; the selection is not exhaustive:
No smooth Yemeni transition – multiple factors will fight to maintain power – they will violently compete, not cooperate

Jonathan Ruhe, June 9, 2011, The National Interest, "The Horror of a Post-Saleh Yemen" http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-horror-post-saleh-yemen-5435?page=1

It is hard to imagine anything like a
AND
exploit differences among the opposition to defeat them.

AQAP Advantage
AQAP is not a threat

James Spencer, “A False Dawn for Yemen's Militants,” Foreign Affairs, June 8, 2011, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/ARTICLES/67883/james-spencer/a-false-dawn-for-yemens-militants?page=show#

Throughout Yemen's political crisis, the West's chief
AND
the special operations group's capability will be lost.
Threat is totally overblown

Guy Taylor, reporter and news editor for World Politics Review, “Is the Al-Qaida Threat in Yemen Real or Overblown?,” April 5, 2011, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/trend-lines/8416/is-the-al-qaida-threat-in-yemen-real-or-overblown

The extent and true nature of the al
AND
clear who al-Qaida is in Yemen."
SQ Counterterrorism is sufficient to prevent an AQAP attack on the homeland

Scott Stewart, STRATFOR, “Al Qaeda's Leadership in Yemen,” May 12, 2011, http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110511-al-qaeda-leadership-yemen

Because of counterterrorism measures undertaken in the West
AND
in the press are portraying him to be.
Yemeni people won’t support AQAP due to religious differences

Michael Horton, Jamestown Foundation and correspondent for CS Monitor, “Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Challenges and Opportunities in Revolutionary Yemen,” April 27, 2011, http://pakteahouse.net/2011/04/27/al-qaeda-in-the-arabian-peninsula-challenges-and-opportunities-in-revolutionary-yemen/

In a recent article entitled “The Tsunami
AND
a moderating effect that should not be underestimated.
Reform boosts AQAP, and the aff doesn’t solve the core recruitment mechanism

Browne, 11 – Researcher for RUSI Qatar, received an MA in Near and Middle Eastern Studies in 2010 from the School of Oriental and African Studies, London. He also received a BA in Egyptology and Ancient Near Eastern Studies from Oxford University in 2008. Prior to graduate work at SOAS, Peter spent an academic year studying Arabic in Yemen (Peter, "Regime Change in Yemen," 4/19, http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4DAD6729BFDBF/)

The economic challenges that Yemen is facing could
AND
steps down in a year's time.[12]
Low risk of terrorism – limited capabilities, inevitable mistakes, and conservative tactics

Michael Levi, fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, January/February, 2008, Stopping Nuclear Terrorism, Foreign Affairs

WHEN STRATEGIES for preventing nuclear terrorism rely on
AND
in which those measures might theoretically be evaded. 

1NC
SKFTA will pass by the end of the month—but new roadblocks could emerge

Southeast Farm Press 9-16 “Senate deal could prompt movement on pending FTAs” http://southeastfarmpress.com/government/senate-deal-could-prompt-movement-pending-ftas

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (
AND
more than four years ago.


Democracy aid to Yemen will be scrutinized heavily and cost political capital

Fox News “Did Qaddafi Deserve U.S. Funding? Foreign Aid Under Scrutiny Amid Mideast Unrest” March 24, 2011, http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/03/24/did-qaddafi-deserve-funding-foreign-aid-scrutiny-amid-mideast-unrest/

If this seems contradictory, welcome
AND
 critics say doesn't exist in Yemen.
Political capital key

Knowledge@Wharton, the online business journal of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, “U.S.-South Korea Trade Pact: A Turning Point for American Exports?”, 1/12/11, http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=2671

With Portman now in the
AND
 Democrats and Tea Party Republicans.
SKFTA key to Asia-Pacific trade and regional stability

L. Gordon Flake, Executive Director of The Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation, and Troy Stangarone, Director of Congressional Affairs and Trade for the Korea Economic Institute, “The KORUS FTA is a Strategic Imperative,” CSIS PacNet, Number 42, August 11, 2011, http://csis.org/files/publication/pac1142.pdf

For most of the summer,
AND
 and open to commerce among all nations.
Global nuclear war

Jonathan S. Landay, national security and intelligence correspondent, March 10, 2000, Knight Ridder/Tribune News Service, Lexis

Few if any experts think China
AND
, according to the Commerce Department.

Failure to pass the Senate tanks the alliance
Cooper 10
William, Coordinator Specialist in International Trade and Finance @ CRS, The Proposed U.S.-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA): Provisions and Implications, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL34330.pdf
In contrast, while the passage of the
AND
Korea by taking high profile steps to expand U.S.-ROK strategic, rather than economic, relations.

Turns terrorism because makes it more likely that loose nukes will get in the hands of terrorist organizations
Cooperation key to South Korean support for crushing terrorism
Levin 4, Senior Analyst at the RAND Corporation, (Norman D, “Do the Ties Still Bind?: The US-ROK Security Relationship After 9/11,” http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2004/RAND_MG115.pdf)

Third, security cooperation provides
AND
importance for close alliance relations. 

Alliance key to Iran talks and stopping Iran prolif
Campbell et al, 09 – Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs (Kurt M., Center for a New American Security, “Going global: the future of the U.S.-South Korea alliance.” Ed. by Campbell et al, “Going global: the future of the U.S.-South Korea alliance.” P. 79 http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CampbellPatel_Going%20Global_February09_0.pdf)   

The most recent concrete
AND
steps to normalize relations with Iran. 

Alliance turns war in Yemen
Schriver and Kato, 09 – Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, adjunct fellow with the CSIS International Security Program (Randy and Kazuyo, Center for a New American Security, “Going global: the future of the U.S.-South Korea alliance.” Ed. by Kurt Campbell et al, “The U.S.-ROK Alliance: Regional Challenges for An evolving Alliance.” P. 53-54  http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CampbellPatel_Going%20Global_February09_0.pdf)   

With regard to proliferation, although
AND
assist in reconstruction efforts in the Middle East

GNP just introduced it to Congress—will be ratified soon

Korea Herald 9-16 “Free trade pact with U.S. introduced in parliamentary committee” http://www.koreaherald.com/national/Detail.jsp?newsMLId=20110916000821

SEOUL, Sept. 16 (Yonhap) - South Korea's
AND
 objections from opposition parties.
National Assembly will ratify soon, and U.S. ratification would ensure passage

Dong-A Ilbo 9-16 “Korean parliament speeding up FTA ratification process” http://english.donga.com/srv/service.php3?bicode=020000&biid=2011091617868

As the U.S. Congress has begun
AND
not be able to oppose it unconditionally."

Next he says bio D but:

Biodiversity loss is empirically denied and there is a litany of alternate casualties
Bruno, associate professor UNC Chapel Hill, 10 [John F., May 3, “Biodiversity Loss Continues Unabated Despite International Efforts”, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-f-bruno/biodiversity-loss-continu_b_561699.html]
Betting on biodiversity loss is a
AND
isolated and seemingly untouched reefs. 

The most conclusive study indicates that biodiversity is decreasing now due to external factors
Green, 10 [Cool, Mother Nature Network, April, “New study: Biodiversity continues to decline worldwide”, http://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/wilderness-resources/stories/new-study-biodiversity-continues-to-decline-worldwide]
Species continue to be lost at steady
AND
severe impacts on organisms across the planet.

No impact turn:
Strong US-Korea alliance is key to deter North Korean proliferation
Snyder, Et. Al. 10 – director of the Center for U.S.-Korea Policy and senior associate of Washington programs in the International Relations program of The Asia Foundation (Charles L. Pitchard and John H. Tilleli Jr. 2010. “US Policy Toward the Korean Peninsula” ww.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/Korean_PeninsulaTFR64.pdf)

A strong U.S.-South Korea alliance
AND
engage in such provocations with impunity.

<p><br class="lineBreak"></p>

1NC-Counterplan
Text—The United States federal government should solicit local requests for democratic decentralization assistance for Yemen, and fulfill those requests.
Working by consulting local groups and implementing their needs is key to solve and avoids backlash

The Carter Center, non-profit organization at Emory University founded by former president Jimmy Carter, “How U.S. Aid Can Undermine Middle East Democracy Activists,” August 23, 2007, http://www.cartercenter.org/peace/human_rights/defenders/news/syria_iran_feature.html

Many human rights defenders say that
AND
 these kinds of consultations don't take place."
Backlash kills democratization and turns the case

Carl Gershman, president of the National Endowment for Democracy, and Michael Allen, special assistant to the vice-president for government and external relations at NED, “THE ASSAULT ON DEMOCRACY ASSISTANCE,” Journal of Democracy, April 2006, Volume 17, Number 2

Just as this trend has taken root
AND
the advance and consolidation of democracy.

<p><br class="lineBreak"></p>

1NC—Kritik
Democracy assistance props up a neoliberal, imperial drive to impose Western ‘expertise’ on the world

Marion Wood Dixon, doctoral student in sociology at Cornell University, “An Arab spring,” Review of African Political Economy, Vol. 38, No. 128, June 2011, 309–316

The ‘imperial reach’ represents a real
AND
rooted in social and economic justice.
This triggers interventions to solidify Western control

Gerald Sussman, professor of urban studies and communications at Portland State University and has published widely on the international political economy of information technology, mass media, and development, “The Myths of ‘Democracy Assistance’: U.S. Political Intervention in Post-Soviet Eastern Europe,” Monthly Review, Volume 58, Issue 07 (December 2006), http://monthlyreview.org/2006/12/01/the-myths-of-democracy-assistance-u-s-political-intervention-in-post-soviet-eastern-europe

U.S. interventionism, except perhaps in
AND
other expressions of neocolonial hegemony.
This makes perpetual war inevitable

Claudia von Werlhof, professor of women's studies and political science at the University of Innsbruck, Austria, “The Consequences of Globalization and Neoliberal Policies. What are the Alternatives?” Global Research, February 1, 2008, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=7973

The notion that capitalism and
AND
 After all, it “hinders business” (Werlhof 2005 a).
Vote negative to criticize the neoliberal, imperial nature of democracy assistance

Michael Barker, doctoral candidate at Griffith University, Australia, “Hijacking Human Rights,” August 8, 2007, http://www.zcommunications.org/hijacking-human-rights-by-michael-barker

Fortunately for progressive activists, the
AND
participatory democracy rather than polyarchy.

     1NC-Saudi
Saudi Arabia fears Yemen democracy—will counteract progress

Democracy Digest, “Saudi Arabia: countervailing power or ‘midwives of change’ in Yemen?” June 6, 2011, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/06/saudi-arabia-countervailing-power-or-midwives-of-change-in-yemen/

With Yemen finely poised between
AND
expert at the University of Sydney.
Saudi Arabia will break off cooperation—turns the aff

Vali Nasr, Professor of International Politics at Tufts, “Will the Saudis Kill the Arab Spring?,” Bloomberg, May 23, 2011, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-23/will-the-saudis-kill-the-arab-spring-.html

The kingdom has emerged as the
AND
, which qualify on neither count.
Saudi cooperation key to Pakistani stability, fighting terrorism, and containing Iran

Steve LeVine, Contributing editor at Foreign Policy, Jan/Feb, 11, “Frenemies Forever,” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/01/02/opening_gambit_frenemies_forever

The verdict: Guilty. But so
AND
 trust Washington, can play this role.
Pakistan collapse causes global nuclear war

William Rivers Pitt, internationally bestselling author and New York Times columnist, “Unstable Pakistan threatens the world,” May 8, 2009, http://www.arabamericannews.com/news/index.php?mod=article&cat=commentary&article=2183

As familiar as this sounds,
AND
a collision course with unimaginable disaster.
2NC—Saudi
Turns case—Saudi prolif

Ray Takeyh, Iranian-American Middle East scholar, former United States Department of State official, and a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, Adjunct Professor at Georgetown University. “A Post-American Day Dawns in the Mideast,” New York Times, June 8, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/09/opinion/09iht-edtakeyh09.html?_r=1

Today, Riyadh and Washington see
AND
 the Saudis from obtaining a bomb of their own.

Saudi Arabia wants to manage the Yemeni transition to ensure stability – they will not tolerate actual democratic progress

Knickmeyer, Former Associated Press bureau chief in Africa, 11
(7/5, Trouble Down South, "Is Saudi Arabia really counter-revolutionary?" The Saudi Counter-Revolution, POMEPS Briefing 5)

For Yemenis, suffering under worsening
AND
 Even in Saudi Arabia, many doubt it.

AQAP is not a threat

James Spencer, “A False Dawn for Yemen's Militants,” Foreign Affairs, June 8, 2011, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/ARTICLES/67883/james-spencer/a-false-dawn-for-yemens-militants?page=show#

Throughout Yemen's political crisis, the
AND
group's capability will be lost.
Low risk of terrorism – limited capabilities, inevitable mistakes, and conservative tactics

Michael Levi, fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, January/February, 2008, Stopping Nuclear Terrorism, Foreign Affairs

WHEN STRATEGIES for preventing nuclear
AND
 measures might theoretically be evaded.
Financial costs too high

John Mueller, department of political science at Ohio State University, 1/1/2008, The Atomic Terrorist, p. http://polisci.osu.edu/faculty/jmueller/APSACHGO.PDF

Assessing the financial costs. The discussion
AND
 capture or kill the scheming perpetrators.

No nuclear retaliation

Baker Spring, research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, 9/20/2001, p. http://www.heritage.org/Research/MissileDefense/BG1477.cfm

Nuclear retaliation is not appropriate
AND
 be able to resort to defensive options.
US won’t overreact

Hank C. Jenkins-Smith 4, PhD. Professor at the George H.W. Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University and Kerry G. Herron, Ph.D. Research Scientist at George H.W. Bush School of Government and Public Service, Texas A&M University, Fall 2004 

Our final contrasting set of expectations
AND
significantly over the following year.
Difficult to weaponize and deliver

Jacqueline Simon, former member of SIPRI Chemical and biological Warfare Project, March, 2002, Implications of the Terror Attacks for the BWC, INESAP Information Bulletin, p. 4-7

The threat posed by chemical and biological
AND
many militaries and terrorist organizations

Tech hurdles to CBW terror are insurmountable

John Mueller, Woody Hates Chair of National Security Studies, Mershon Center, and political science professor at Ohio State University, Overblown, 2006, p.24

Not only has the science about
AND
greatly inhibit their effective use.

Dispersal problems block bioterror

John L. Scherer, Minn.-based freelance writer, edited the yearbook Terrorism: An Annual Survey in 1982-83 and the quarterly Terrorism from 1986 to 2001, “Is terrorism's threat overblown?,” National Affairs, January 2003, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1272/is_2692_131/ai_96268286

Chemical, biological, and nuclear (CBN)
AND
 would have proved extremely difficult. 

Iran nuclearization won’t cause an arms race or war

Gawdat Bahgat is a professor at the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies, National Defense University, “A Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East: Myth or Reality?,” Mediterranean Quarterly 2011 Volume 22, Number 1: 27-40

In this essay I argue against this
AND
 likely to ignite a regional nuclear arms race.
Iran unlikely to proliferate 

James M. Lindsay and Ray Takeyh, April 2010
JAMES M. LINDSAY is Senior Vice President, Director of Studies, and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair at the Council on Foreign Relations. RAY TAKEYH is a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of Guardians of the Revolution: Iran and the World in the Age of the Ayatollahs.  
After Iran Gets the Bomb; Containment and Its Complications, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/print/65941 

The prospect that Iran might transfer
AND
 to deter Iran from acting impetuously.
Turn – Isolating Iran leads to lashout

Max Fisher is an associate editor at The Atlantic, “The Risks of Isolating China,” The Atlantic, September 23, 2010, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2010/09/the-risks-of-isolating-china/63470/

Isolation is self-reinforcing. An
AND
more severe, and the cycle repeats.
Iran prolif stabilizes the Middle East—encourages rational decisionmaking

Seth Weinberger, Professor of International Relations and Political Philosophy at the University of Puget Sound, “Why does Iran Want Nuclear Weapons?”, October 2, 2009, http://securitydilemmas.blogspot.com/2009/10/why-does-iran-want-nuclear-weapons.html

The good news, however, is that
AND
 be able to create regional deterrence.

Iran prolif collapses the NPT

Colin Dueck, assistant prof of poly sci at University of Colorado, and Ray Takeyh, Senior Fellow in Middle East Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, Summer, Political Science Quarterly Volume 122 • Number 2 • Summer 2007 “Iran’s Nuclear Challenge”

Four years after the United States
AND
political alignments of the Middle East.
That is key to solve global prolif

Akira Kimura, Professor, Kagoshima University "What can we do to resolve the crisis in the NPT regime?" 2005 serv.peace.hiroshima-cu.ac.jp/English/anew/KimuraE.pdf

The NPT regime was not established
AND
 Coalition or NPT nonmember nations.
NPT just makes proliferation opaque—increases likelihood of accidental nuclear war

Michael Wesley, Director of the Griffith Asia Pacific Research Institute, “It’s Time to Scrap the NPT,” Journal of International Affairs, 59:3, 2005

By prohibiting proliferation, without the
AND
 with nuclear or radiological weapons.

AT ISRAEL: Nuclearization prevents Israeli strikes

David Morrison. political officer for the Ireland Palestine Solidarity Campaign. “The elephant in the room: Israel's nuclear weapons” The Electronic Intifada, 29 June 2009. http://electronicintifada.net/v2/article10621.shtml

Rulers of Iran don't want their
AND
a supreme effort to acquire them.

Iranian nuclearization won’t lead to a Middle East arms race 

James M. Lindsay and Ray Takeyh, April 2010
JAMES M. LINDSAY is Senior Vice President, Director of Studies, and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair at the Council on Foreign Relations. RAY TAKEYH is a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of Guardians of the Revolution: Iran and the World in the Age of the Ayatollahs.  
After Iran Gets the Bomb; Containment and Its Complications, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/print/65941 

An Iranian nuclear bomb could
AND
 could impose, on nuclear proliferators.
NPT facilitates proliferation due to dual-use tech transfers

Michael Wesley, Director of the Griffith Asia Pacific Research Institute, “It’s Time to Scrap the NPT,” Journal of International Affairs, 59:3, 2005

For many states that have contemplated
AND
 to charges of selectivity, unfairness and politicisation (Jones 1998).
NPT collapse now rather than putting it on life support is key to successful alternative regime and preventing destabilizing prolif

Michael Wesley, Director of the Griffith Asia Pacific Research Institute, “It’s Time to Scrap the NPT,” Journal of International Affairs, 59:3, 2005

Given the pressures towards limited
AND
manage the dangerous consequences of an inevitable process.

No Iran threat-their evidence is blinded by special interests

Zarrabi 11—conducted lectures and seminars on international affairs, particularly in relation to Iran, with focus on US/Iran issues. President, regional chapter of World Affairs Council of San Diego. Author of 2 books about Iran. (Kam, CRYING WOLF, AGAIN?, 9 June 2011, www.payvand.com/news/11/jun/1118.html)

Another round of the annual Israel
AND
with regard to its Palestinian dilemmas.

1AC – INH

Inherency.

The U.S. has supported Syrian opposition groups for years.

Deutsche Welle 4-20-11

“US funding of opposition complicates Obama's Damascus policy,” http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,14996885,00.html

The cables produced by WikiLeaks showed that while

AND

more supportive of Assad than of the opposition."

Assistance is provided by the State Department.

David B. Gootnick, Director, International Affairs and Trade, GAO, ’9

“Democracy Assistance: U.S. Agencies Take Steps to Coordinate International Programs but Lack Information on Some U.S. Funded Activities,” GAO-09-993, Sep. 28, http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d09993.pdf, p. 46

Table 6 shows the USAID, State DRL

AND

filling in the gaps in USAID democracy funding.

Recently, the U.S. reaffirmed its pledge to support the Syrian opposition.

David Ignatius - Washington Post Writers Group – 7-21-11

“U.S. ponders strategy to support Syria,” http://www2.ljworld.com/news/2011/jul/21/us-ponders-strategy-support-syria/

As the Obama administration steps up its support

AND

“our goal is ... a democratic transformation.”

The U.S. claims the mantle of having provided consistent, sustained support to the Syrian opposition.

Michael H. Posner, Assistant Secretary of State, Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, 7-27-11

“Axis of Abuse: U.S. Human Rights Policy toward Iran and Syria, Part 1,” House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Middle East and South Asia, Congressional Documents and Publications, Lexis

Our efforts to support the Iranian and Syrian

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the Committee again, and welcome your questions.

Still, the U.S. has no real strategy. Sectarian civil war is likely.

Elliot Abrams, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations, 8-2-11

“Preventing Civil War in Syria,” Wall Street Journal, http://www.cfr.org/syria/preventing-civil-war-syria/p25576

Syria remains rocked by antiregime protests that have

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, or even some form of military intervention.

State doesn’t conduct evaluations of its assistance.

David B. Gootnick, Director, International Affairs and Trade, GAO, ’10

“Democracy Assistance: U.S. Agencies Take Steps to Coordinate International Programs but Lack Information on Some U.S. Funded Activities,” GAO-09-993, http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d09993.pdf, p. 37

⁵² According to State DRL officials, State

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of programs but does not evaluate every grant.

Assad’s fall is inevitable.

Salwa Ismail, professor of politics with reference to the Middle East at the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London, “Bashar al-Assad's fall is inevitable,” The Guardian, 8-26, 2011. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/aug/26/assad-fall-inevitable-syrians-intervention

The dramatic developments in Libya are raising comparisons

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that the regime is incapable of maintaining stability.

Continued inaction in Syria will provoke full-scale military intervention.

Elliot Abrams, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations, 8-2-11

“Preventing Civil War in Syria,” Wall Street Journal, http://www.cfr.org/syria/preventing-civil-war-syria/p25576

There appears to be no U.S

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, or even some form of military intervention.

1AC – ADV – MB

Advantage - Sectarian Conflict

A. Harms.

In fact, current U.S. democracy assistance strengthens the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria.[a1] 

IPT (Investigative Project on Terrorism), Citing Farid Ghadry, President, Reform Party of Syria (RPS), 6-6-11

“Ghadry: Assad Will Fall, But the Brotherhood May Follow,” Delivered by Newstex, Lexis

As he looks towards the future, Ghadry

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future, then the region is in trouble.”

MB is an active part of the opposition in Syria, though there’s little precise information.

Hossein Ruyvaran, Middle East Affairs Expert, 8-13-11

Chair, Political Commission, Society for the Defense of the Nation of Palestine, “Iranian expert says dialogue ‘only’ solution to Syrian crisis,” Jaam-e Jam [BBC-LEXIS]

Q: If we note the extent of

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opponents are youth whose leanings are not known.

Critical knowledge failures ensure that the U.S. will stoke sectarian tensions.

Barry Rubin, Director, GLORIA (Global Research in International Affairs) Center, 8-15-11

“The big split in the revolutionary Islamist movement,” Jerusalem Post (LEXIS)

What does this mean for the West and

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are unlikely to comprehend this one, either.

A divide-and-conquer strategy will produce sectarian conflicts throughout the region.

Vali Nasr, International Politics Prof, Tufts, 8-27-11

“If the Arab Spring Turns Ugly,” New York Times Opinion Section, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/28/opinion/sunday/the-dangers-lurking-in-the-arab-spring.html?pagewanted=1&_r=2

The Arab Spring is a hopeful chapter in

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Saudi Arabia, are already jousting for power.

Syria is the lynchpin to the broader conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Protracted conflict would trigger a broader Sunni-Shiite clash and destroy the Arab Spring.

Vali Nasr, International Politics Prof, Tufts, 8-27-11

“If the Arab Spring Turns Ugly,” New York Times Opinion Section, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/28/opinion/sunday/the-dangers-lurking-in-the-arab-spring.html?pagewanted=1&_r=2

In March, fearing a snowball effect from

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Syria and Iraq, it is already happening.

B. Solvency. Replacing naïveté with perspective facilitates understanding and enables redirection of funds.

IPT (Investigative Project on Terrorism), Citing Farid Ghadry, President, Reform Party of Syria (RPS), 6-6-11

“Ghadry: Assad Will Fall, But the Brotherhood May Follow,” Delivered by Newstex, Lexis

As he looks towards the future, Ghadry

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we should all unite to defend ourselves against.”

Assisting pro-democratic forces limits the resources the MB can use against its opponents and prevents a repeat of the Iranian Revolution in Syria.

IPT (Investigative Project on Terrorism), Citing Farid Ghadry, President, Reform Party of Syria, (RPS), 6-6-11

“Ghadry: Assad Will Fall, But the Brotherhood May Follow,” Delivered by Newstex, Lexis

Ghadry urges the Obama Administration to take action

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United States and the Western, democratic world.

1AC – Plan

Plan: The United States Department of State should commission participatory evaluations of its so-called democracy assistance programs for Syria. Evaluations should employ the methodology used for producing Religious Freedom Reports.

1AC – Solvency

The plan is democracy assistance because the method of evaluation is democratic.

Peter Burnell, Politics and International Studies Prof, Warwick, '7
Evaluating Democracy Support: Methods and Experiences, http://www.adb.org/evaluation/documents/EvaluatingDemocracySupport.pdf, pp. 17-18

One further and rather special reason for

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and would-be beneficiaries in the field.

The plan is democracy assistance because it exemplifies democratic values.

Thomas Carothers, Topic Guru, ’93

Founder & Director, Democracy and Rule of Law Program, Carnegie Endowment, Foreign operations, export financing, and related programs appropriations for fiscal year 1994: hearings before a subcommittee of the Committee on Appropriations, United States Senate, Mar. 2, http://www.ebooksread.com/authors-eng/export-financing-united-states-congress-senate-committee-on-appr/foreign-operations-export-financing-and-related-programs-appropriations-for-fi-tin/page-15-foreign-operations-export-financing-and-related-programs-appropriations-for-fi-tin.shtml

TYPES OF DEMOCRACY ASSISTANCE I have spoken much

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of persons to and from the United States.

Participatory evaluation inculcates democratic values, replacing hierarchical relationships with shared ownership.

Peter Burnell, Politics and International Studies Prof, Warwick, ’8.

 “From Evaluating Democracy Assistance to Appraising Democracy Promotion,” Political Studies 56 (2) (June 1): 414-434. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9248.2007.00653.x

One view is that the purpose of assessing

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However, that is easier said than done.

State can effectively compile information from multiple sources – Religious Freedom Reports prove.

Brian J. Grim, Senior Researcher, Pew Forum on Religious and Public Life, et al., ’6

“Measuring International Socio-Religious Values and Conflict by Coding US State Department Reports,” JSM Proceedings, AAPOR-Section on Survey Research Methods, American Association of Public Opinion Researchers (AAPOR) annual conference, https://www.amstat.org/sections/srms/Proceedings/y2006/Files/JSM2006-000040.pdf, p. 4125

4. Conclusions Cross-national data on

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data, such questions can be empirically explored.

The plan will demonstrate the value of evaluations and help determine which projects to use in which conditions.

NRC Committee on Evaluation of USAID Democracy Assistance Programs ’8

Improving Democracy Assistance: Building Knowledge Through Evaluations and Research, http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12164.html, pp. 216-217 [ACG]

Conclusions The potential changes to current USAID policy

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which conditions, to best assist democratic progress.

A commitment to evaluate the effectiveness of existing programs would enable more effective programming of future democracy assistance funds. Senior commitment to evaluation will inculcate a culture of effectiveness.

NRC Committee on Evaluation of USAID Democracy Assistance Programs ’8

Improving Democracy Assistance: Building Knowledge Through Evaluations and Research, http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12164.html, pp. 220-221 [ACG]

Providing Leadership and Strategic Vision Obtaining more impact

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may cause harm or may simply be ineffective.

The plan enables the U.S. to bear witness and respond to events in Syria.

Michael H. Posner, Assistant Secretary of State, Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, 7-27-11

“Axis of Abuse: U.S. Human Rights Policy toward Iran and Syria, Part 1,” House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Middle East and South Asia, Congressional Documents and Publications, Lexis

In bearing witness to these terrible abuses,

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Syrian government about the need to change course.

The plan’s a key part of a coherent step-by-step approach.

Michael Singh, Managing Director, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 8-16-11

“The U.S. needs to speak clearly on Syria,” Foreign Policy, http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/16/the_us_needs_to_speak_clearly_on_syria

Affecting the outcome in Syria will require a

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in the Arab world broadly -- is unmistakable.

Only the U.S. can assist the Syrian transition – the plan will build leverage over time.

Michael Young, Opinion Page Editor, Lebanon Daily Star, 5-19-11

 “An Obama road map to change in Syria.” Lebanon Daily Star, http://www.dailystar.com.lb/mobile/Article.aspx?id=139016.

We’ve heard Obama administration officials declare lately that

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only the United States can take such measures.

Academic debate over policy issues like the response to the Arab Spring is critical to shape and improve the direction of policy and correct governmental mis-information--- esoteric abstractions cede the policy process to status-quo interests

Walt 11 – Stephen M. Walt, Professor of International Affairs at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, July 21, 2011, “International Affairs and the Public Sphere,” online: http://publicsphere.ssrc.org/walt-international-affairs-and-the-public-sphere/

Academics can make at least three distinct contributions

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than the scholars who produce it might wish.

American public discourse on democracy assistance is crucial to breaking down the clash of civilization discourse that has created Islamaphobia and Orientalism

TELHAMI 5, SHIBLEY Anwar Sadat professor for peace and development, University of Maryland “Democracy: Rising Tide or Mirage” Middle East Policy Vol 12 Issue 2 May 23 2005 Wiley

I think we all agree that, no

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sharpness of the clash on the other side.

Obama’s jobs bill will pass and is key to prevent double-dip recession

New York Times, “Bigger Economic Role for Washington,” 9-13-11, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/14/us/politics/jobs-bill-could-help-economic-growth-some-forecasters-say.html

WASHINGTON — Just weeks ago, economists and
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important have a chance of winning bipartisan support.”
Political capital key

Rick Cohen, Non Profit Quarterly, “Obama’s Jobs Bill: Ready to Take a Chance Again?,” 9-13-11, http://www.nonprofitquarterly.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=15811:obamas-jobs-bill-ready-to-take-a-chance-again&catid=153:features&Itemid=336

What’s clearer is the fact that without strong
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-election campaign—will fail as well.
Double-dip recession likely and triggers prolonged economic downturn

Chris Isidore, CNN Money, “Recession 2.0 would hurt worse,” 8-10-11, http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/10/news/economy/double_dip_recession_economy/index.htm

The risk of double dip recession is rising
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risk of lasting damage in a new downturn.
U.S. economic collapse causes global instability and nuclear war

Aaron Friedberg, professor of politics and international relations at Princeton University, and Gabriel Schoenfeld, visiting scholar at the Witherspoon Institute, Wall Street Journal, “The Dangers of a Diminished America,” 2008, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122455074012352571.html

One immediate implication of the crisis that began
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be the straw that breaks the camel's back.

Democracy assistance means the transfer of funds to democratic groups

Richard Lappin, PhD candidate the Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven, visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade. "What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation," Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, Vol.4, No.1, May (2010):

Democracy assistance can be most accurately defined as

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society groups, media groups and political parties.

USFG means the government in Washington D.C.

West’s Legal Dictionary, 1985, p. 744

United States: Usually means the federal government centered in Washington D.C.

Should implies action

American Heritage Dictionary 2000 (Dictionary.com)

should. The will to do something or have something take place: I shall go out if I feel like it. 

Limits are a necessary component of competitive debate

Ruth Lessl Shively, Assoc Prof Polisci at Texas A&M, 2000 Political Theory and Partisan Politics p. 186

To sum up the argument thus far,

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conditions necessary to political contest require these judgments.

Precise, agreed-upon definitions are necessary for debate on democracy assistance—lack of clarity prevents clash and effective analysis

Richard Lappin, PhD candidate the Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven, visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade. "What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation," Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, Vol.4, No.1, May (2010):

This article has examined the emergence of democracy

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of formulating effective democratic means will remain improbable.

Purely cultural solutions fail.

Carol Boggs Political Science, Southern California 2k “The End of Politics” 250-1

But it is a very deceptive and misleading

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antirationalism of Oakeshott’s Burkean muddling-through theories. 

our interpretation is the most empowering and politically useful—better policy-oriented research is necessary to challenge flawed notions in the democracy academic community

Thomas Carothers, VP for Studies at Carnegie, “The Research Imperatives of Democracy Promotion,” American Political Science Association – Comparative Democracy, Vol. 8, No. 3, October 2010, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/October_2010_APSA-CD_2.pdf

Us and them: Another problematic pattern of

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and policy practice not just advisable but imperative.

results in political change

John Rawls Political Philosophy, Harvard 2001 “The Law of Peoples: with ‘The Idea of Public Reason Revisited’” Harvard University Press, pg 56-57

How is the ideal of public reason realized

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social basis of peace and understanding among peoples.

Academic debate over policy issues like the response to the Arab Spring is critical to shape and improve the direction of policy and correct governmental mis-information--- esoteric abstractions cede the policy process to status-quo interests

Walt 11 – Stephen M. Walt, Professor of International Affairs at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, July 21, 2011, “International Affairs and the Public Sphere,” online: http://publicsphere.ssrc.org/walt-international-affairs-and-the-public-sphere/

Academics can make at least three distinct contributions

AND

than the scholars who produce it might wish.

American public discourse on democracy assistance is crucial to breaking down racial discourse

TELHAMI 5, SHIBLEY Anwar Sadat professor for peace and development, University of Maryland “Democracy: Rising Tide or Mirage” Middle East Policy Vol 12 Issue 2 May 23 2005 Wiley

I think we all agree that, no

AND

sharpness of the clash on the other side.

Micro-power sacrifices the oppressed to neoliberal global hegemony. Political structures are needed for liberation.

Lewis R. Gordon, Director,

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, which radicalizes the problem of political responsibility.