Contention One: Assad is done
1. Actors throughout the International Community are calibrating their positions for the fall of Assad
Rogan 8/28/11 Tom
2. Assad will be forced to exit
Lyon 8/19/11 Alistair
3. The US will forgo opportunities for democracy assistance in Arab nations due to pressures in Congress regarding the budget
Democracy Digest 8/17/11
Contention Two: Avoiding a Failed State Crisis
1. Sectarianism of Newly formed Syrian Opposition Council threatens transition to successful democracy
Pomed Wire 8/24/11
2. Sectarian conflicts and deterioration of the economy threatens regional stability
Spangler 8/3/11 Timothy
3. Erruption of Middle East conflict escalates to nuclear war
Primakov ’08
Contention Three: Human Rights and Transformations through Memory
1. The Syrian government is committing crimes against humanity- imprisoning and torturing political prisoners
Ya Libnan 11
2. Memory is powerfully transformative - the creation of political reforms though collectivizing narratives of oppressed memories, turning the state’s power over language and the body into a clean rewritten language that speaks for civil society creates possibility for political reform and gives justice to the people
Haugbolle, Sune
Contention Four: Solvency
1. Truth commissions provide Syrians the opportunity to speak out about abuses and provide an accurate record of what occurred allowing Syrians to come to terms with 50 years of violence and to envision a peaceful transition to democracy
Ziadeh ’10 Radwan
2. Truth commissions increase likelihood of successful transition by bridging ideological gaps between pro-democracy advocates and human rights activists
Gershman ’08 Carl
3. Democracy assistance is multifaceted and establishing the climate to support transition at different stages is key – laying the foundations is important – truth and reconciliation is one important piece of democracy assistance
NRC. Improving Democracy Assistance: Building Knowledge Through Evaluations and Research. 2008. Committee on Evaluation of USAID Democracy Assistance Programs, National Research Council, Improving Democracy Assistance: Building Knowledge Through Evaluations and Research 2008. Pg 107-
4. Measured but purposeful involvement in development of Syrian democracy is best for US interests – US should offer rule of law training and begin to look at post-Assad Syria
Karlin, Mara E & Tabler, Andrew May ‘11
5. Truth commissions help with transparency in newly forming governments and contribute to positive agenda setting
McConnachie ’04 Kirsten
6. The process of Truth and Reconcillation finds legitimation in the context of that society – this quilts together a new cultural narrative that founds democracy of human community rather than sovereign power.
Ward ’02 Ian
