Observation I: Terrorism

___ Al Qaeda is regrouping in Yemen – gearing up for new attacks

Al-Arashi ‘11 [Fakhri Al-Arashi, Publisher & Chief Editor “Yemen Gives Wounded Al Qaeda A Chance To Regroup”, National Yemen, , June 6, 2011]

War in Yemen would hand al Qaeda’s …its relations with Shaikhs, military men, some tribes and religious men like Shaikh Abdul Majeed al-Zandani who may support the group through al-iman university.

___ AQAP is the key to the future of al Qaeda

The National 9-12-11

[Michael Theodoulou, “Al Qaeda is in crisis but its offshoots still pose potent threat,” http://www.thenational.ae/news/worldwide/middle-east/al-qaeda-is-in-crisis-but-its-offshoots-still-pose-potent-threat]

Leon Panetta, the US defence secretary and …a source of terrorist threats, Mr Panetta said last week.999

AQAP Physical Strong; wants to attack US even more

Stewart, 10-6

[Scott Stewart, Stratfor Global Intelligence, “Yemen: Fallout from the al-Awlaki Airstrike”, http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20111005-yemen-fallout-al-awlaki-airstrike?utm_source=freelist-f&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20111006&utm_term=sweekly&utm_content=readmore&elq=8660a4136d144954b1fe85c0961a578f,  10-6-2011, Date Accessed 10-6-2011]

This brings us to the ideas of leadership and …do so, despite the loss of two ideological leaders.

We’ll isolate several impact scenarios. First, attacks on the US.

___ AQAP will attack the US directly

Difo, policy analyst for counterterrorism at the American Security Project, ‘10

[Germain, Yemen and U.S. Security, June, ]

Attacks against the U.S. Homeland. As … American passports could be used to conduct attacks in the United States.27

____ A successful terrorist attack would cause full scale US intervention in Yemen – that crushes hegemony

Terrill ’10 [Dr. W. Andrew Terrill is a research professor at the U.S. Army War College, Carlisle Barracks PA, “Preventing Yemen from Becoming Fallujah”, November 1, 2010, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/Preventing-Yemen-from-Becoming-Fallujah/2010/11/1]

In the rapidly mutating world of international terrorist … goes far beyond al Qaeda sympathizers.

___ This risks global nuclear war

Khalilzad 11 (Zalmay, Former US Ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, and the UN and Former Director of Policy Planning @ the DOD, “The Economy and National Security,” February 8^th, )

The stakes are high. In modern history, … aggressive moves in their regions.

Second, WMD Terrorism.

___ AQAP is close to engaging in nuclear terrorism and is also seeking CBWs

Grossman, Global Security Newswire staffer, 6-10-11

[Elaine, GSN, “Panetta: Yemeni Support for Counterterrorism Persists, Despite Instability,” http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20110610_2715.php]

Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of … interest in obtaining chemical and biological weapons.

___ Nuclear terrorism causes extinction

Sid-Ahmed, political analyst, 04

[Mohamed, Al-Ahram Weekly On-Line, , August 26 – September 1, 2004]

We have reached a point in human history … the whole planet, we will all be losers.

___ CBW attacks cause extinction

John D. Steinbruner, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution, and Vice Chair, Committee on International Security and Arms Control, National Academy of Sciences, 12/22/1997 (“Biological Weapons: A Plague Upon All Houses” – Foreign Policy) p. lexis

Although human pathogens are often … but not necessarily its outer limit.

Third is India.

___ AQAP will launch attacks on India

Roychowdhury 9/6 [Gen. Shankar Roychowdhury is a former Chief of Army Staff and a former member of Parliament, “India needs a 360° terror appraisal”, September 6, 2011, Deccan Chronicle, http://www.deccanchronicle.com/editorial/dc-comment/india-needs-360%C2%B0-terror-appraisal-659]

. In this context, Al Qaeda …India must take due note of other threats as well and exercise the requisite caution.

___ A new terrorist attack sparks Indo-pak nuclear war and causes extinction

Zarate ’11 [Juan C. Zarate, Sunday, February 20, 2011, “An alarming South Asia powder keg”, Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/18/AR2011021805662.html]

In 1914, a terrorist assassinated …may be the greatest threat we face from terrorism.

Modeling Advantage

___ Plan is modeled in other counter-insurgency operations – including Afghanistan

Mitchell, Foreign Service Officer with USAID, 11

[Robert, "Yemen: Testing a New Coordinated Approach to Preventive Counterinsurgency," Small Wars Journal, August 1, smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/yemen-testing-a-new-coordinated-approach-to-preventive-counterinsurgency]

An American-designed strategy attempts … country will be aborted or significantly amended.

___ Successful Afghani National Police key to stability

Caldwell, Lieutenant General, and Finney, Captain Commanding General of the NATO Training Mission in Afghanistan and Strategist serving with the NATO Training Mission, 11

[William and Nathan, , "Building Police Capacity in Afghanistan: The Challenges of a Multilateral Approach," National Defense University, Prism2, No. 1,  ]

Successful counterinsurgency operations and … to garner their support—which is critical to the peace and stability of Afghanistan.

___ Collapse of Afghanistan spills over to Pakistan and goes nuclear

Morgan, former member of the British Labour Party National Executive Committee, 7

[Stephen, Author, Political Analyst and Psychologist, "Better another Taliban Afghanistan, than a Taliban NUCLEAR Pakistan!?" YoursDaily, June 3, ]

However events may prove him sorely wrong. … China and Russia pitted against the US.

Plan

The United States Federal Government should increase support for civil law enforcement in Yemen.  We reserve the right to clarify.  You got questions, ask.

Solvency

___ Only law enforcement solves- studies and experts agree that law enforcement is key to short and long term success against AQAP

Knoetgne ’11 [Peter Knoetgne, Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, “Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil”, May 16, 2011, http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil, ]

Within a diplomatic context, the …or intelligence experts providing cultural, regional and international expertise.

___ Security forces have deteriorated – they have lost mission focus and the rule of law has collapsed

Green, fellow at The Washington Institute, 6-24-11

[Daniel, The al-Qaeda Crescent in Yemen, http://www.lebanonwire.com/1106MLN/11062404WI.asp]

Even before the current unrest in Sana'a… future operations, intimidates security forces, and weakens local government.

___ Governmental repression from the security forces increases recruitment for al Qaeda

Difo, policy analyst for counterterrorism at the American Security Project, ‘10

[Germain, Yemen and U.S. Security, June, ]

The Saleh government has largely failed to … most significant threat to their security and well-being.7

___ Only US action solves – key to reverse Anti-Americanism, critical to defeating AQAP

Green ’11 (Daniel Green, Soref fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, focusing on Yemen, al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency, and stability operations, “The American Moment in Yemen”, , April 18, 2011, LEQ)

If the United States adopts a new approach …. within which to launch attacks against the United States.

___ The plan solves terrorism better than the military option

Boyle and Schmid ‘9 [A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism: Towards a Robust Multilateral Counter-Terrorism Regime Dr. Michael J. Boyle and Professor Alex P. Schmid Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence University of St. Andrews Sponsored by the The New Ideas Fund, 2009, http://www.newideasfund.org/proposals/NIF_Global%20Compact.pdf]

The first model is characterized by police … opportunities for terrorist crimes, must be placed higher on the agenda of counter-terrorism.

___ Non-military counter-terrorism cooperation is key countering current US policy

Boyle and Schmid ‘9 [A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism: Towards a Robust Multilateral Counter-Terrorism Regime Dr. Michael J. Boyle and Professor Alex P. Schmid Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence University of St. Andrews Sponsored by the The New Ideas Fund, 2009, http://www.newideasfund.org/proposals/NIF_Global%20Compact.pdf]

The goal of the Bush administration to spread … co-ordination and cooperation.

___ Police establishes a new model for counter-terrorism

Boyle and Schmid ‘9 [A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism: Towards a Robust Multilateral Counter-Terrorism Regime Dr. Michael J. Boyle and Professor Alex P. Schmid Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence University of St. Andrews Sponsored by the The New Ideas Fund, 2009, http://www.newideasfund.org/proposals/NIF_Global%20Compact.pdf]

A turn towards a police-focused criminal … by the President Elect in his election campaign.

___ Assistance to professionalize law enforcement is critical

Boucek, Middle East Program Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 7-19-11

[Christopher, U.S. POLICY IN YEMEN; COMMITTEE: SENATE FOREIGN RELATIONS; SUBCOMMITTEE: NEAR EASTERN AND SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIAN AFFAIRS, lexis]

Washington should also focus on other … the number of now-infamous 'escapes'.

___ Security training and developing local knowledge are key

Green, fellow at The Washington Institute, 6-24-11

[Daniel, The al-Qaeda Crescent in Yemen, http://www.lebanonwire.com/1106MLN/11062404WI.asp]

Much like AQAP, the U.S. approach must be … AQAP and thwart any new attacks it may be planning on the United States.

___ Bolstering the rule of law and shoring up the quality of the judiciary is key.  Failure risks the collapse of Yemen.

Dimou, associate at the Centre for Strategic Studies of the University of Jordan and head of the Middle East and Persian Gulf Unit at the Centre for Security and Defence Analyses, 8-24-10

[Antonia, Yemen on the Brink, http://www.worldpress.org/Mideast/3612.cfm]

Al Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula …strong, independent judiciary is urgent.

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Boehner is blocking a vote on currency legislation.  Votes for passage are there.

Medina, Executive Managing Director at Cushman & Wakefield and Former New Jersey Secretary of Commerce, 10-28-11

[Gil, De-Politicizing our China Policy, http://www.njbiz.com/article/20111028/NJ0705/111029816/-1/daily/De-Politicizing-our-China-Policy&template=intersection]



The Currency Exchange Rate Oversight Reform Act that

AND

for politicians of the left and the right.



___ Link – There’s Zero support in Congress for the plan

LA Times 4-13-11

[Paul Richter, THE WORLD; Debt worries crimp aid for 'Arab Spring'; Congress has shut the door on new funds the administration says would shape change., lexis]



The Obama administration's efforts to use foreign aid

AND

to prop up governments in Iraq and Afghanistan.



___ Boehner capital is key to preventing currency bashing

Financial Times 10-4-11 [Alan Beattie, US currency bill drama belies grind ahead, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ec234e82-eebc-11e0-959a-00144feab49a.html#axzz1asXrIDuv]



So, are they serious? Monday’s overwhelming

AND

focus away from currencies,” Mr Scissors says.



___ China bill stokes nationalist fire.  The impact is extinction.

Grand Rapids Press 10-22-11

[Tom Watkins, China steers American elections, http://www.mlive.com/opinion/grand-rapids/index.ssf/2011/10/china_steers_american_election.html]



Republican House Speaker John Boehner has expressed concern

AND

Oath: “First, do no harm.”

The aff views democracy Assistance as a way to Moderate Populations Guarantee Policy Failure and Entrench Capitalist Ideology

Dean, Political Theorist, 05

[Jodi, Zizek against Democracy, accessed via http://jdeanicite.typepad.com/i_cite/2005/02/whats_left_of_d.html, posted Feb 15]

Whereas liberal and pragmatic approaches to politics and

AND

the economy and envisioning a different political order.

___ Impact – Resisting this reliance on economic evaluation is the ultimate ethical responsibility – the current social order guarantees social exclusion on a global scale

Zizek and Daly, 04

[Slavoj and Glyn, Conversations with Zizek page 14-16]

For Zizek it is imperative that we cut

AND

a ‘glitch’ in an otherwise sound matrix.

The Alt - Completely withdraw from the ideology of capital – this is essential to destroy the fetish that allows capital to survive

Johnston, interdisciplinary research fellow in psychoanalysis at Emory University, ‘4

[Adrian, Psychoanalysis, Culture & Society, December v9 i3 p279, infotrac]

Perhaps the absence of a detailed political roadmap

AND

are convinced that they already have ceased believing). 

___ US is committed to East Asia.

Baker, Vice President of Strategic Intelligence, 10-27-11

[Rodger, Portfolio: U.S. Re-Engages with East Asia, http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111026-portfolio-us-re-engages-east-asia]

U.S. President Barack Obama is preparing...also to provide that stabilizing force.

___ LINK/IMPACT – US resources and willingness to intervene around the world are finite – increasing interventions in MENA trade off with East Asia – that kills regional stability and causes nuclear war.

Colby, research analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses, 8-10-11

(Elbridge, consultant to a number of government and military components, served as policy advisor to the Secretary of Defense’s Representative to the New START talks, an expert advisor to the Congressional Strategic Posture Commission, and in a number of other government positions, “Why US Needs its Liberal Empire,” http://the-diplomat.com/2011/08/10/why-us-needs-its-liberal-empire/, accessed 9-17-11)

The centre of international gravity is shifting toward East Asia...directly on the future of US security and prosperity.