Tournament: Sample Tournament | Round: 1 | Opponent: Sample Team | Judge: Sample Judge
Observation I: Terrorism
_ Al Qaeda is regrouping in Yemen – gearing up for new attacks
Al-Arashi ‘11 [Fakhri Al-Arashi, Publisher & Chief Editor “Yemen Gives Wounded Al Qaeda A Chance To Regroup”, National Yemen, , June 6, 2011]
War in Yemen would hand al Qaeda’s …its relations with Shaikhs, military men, some tribes and religious men like Shaikh Abdul Majeed al-Zandani who may support the group through al-iman university.
_ AQAP is the key to the future of al Qaeda
The National 9-12-11
[Michael Theodoulou, “Al Qaeda is in crisis but its offshoots still pose potent threat,” http://www.thenational.ae/news/worldwide/middle-east/al-qaeda-is-in-crisis-but-its-offshoots-still-pose-potent-threat]
Leon Panetta, the US defence secretary and …a source of terrorist threats, Mr Panetta said last week.999
AQAP Physical Strong; wants to attack US even more
Stewart, 10-6
[Scott Stewart, Stratfor Global Intelligence, “Yemen: Fallout from the al-Awlaki Airstrike”, http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20111005-yemen-fallout-al-awlaki-airstrike?utm_source=freelist-f&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20111006&utm_term=sweekly&utm_content=readmore&elq=8660a4136d144954b1fe85c0961a578f, 10-6-2011, Date Accessed 10-6-2011]
This brings us to the ideas of leadership and …do so, despite the loss of two ideological leaders.
We’ll isolate several impact scenarios. First, attacks on the US.
_ AQAP will attack the US directly
Difo, policy analyst for counterterrorism at the American Security Project, ‘10
[Germain, Yemen and U.S. Security, June, ]
Attacks against the U.S. Homeland. As … American passports could be used to conduct attacks in the United States.27
A successful terrorist attack would cause full scale US intervention in Yemen – that crushes hegemony
Terrill ’10 [Dr. W. Andrew Terrill is a research professor at the U.S. Army War College, Carlisle Barracks PA, “Preventing Yemen from Becoming Fallujah”, November 1, 2010, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/Preventing-Yemen-from-Becoming-Fallujah/2010/11/1]
In the rapidly mutating world of international terrorist … goes far beyond al Qaeda sympathizers.
_ This risks global nuclear war
Khalilzad 11 (Zalmay, Former US Ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, and the UN and Former Director of Policy Planning @ the DOD, “The Economy and National Security,” February 8th, )
The stakes are high. In modern history, … aggressive moves in their regions.
Second, WMD Terrorism.
_ AQAP is close to engaging in nuclear terrorism and is also seeking CBWs
Grossman, Global Security Newswire staffer, 6-10-11
[Elaine, GSN, “Panetta: Yemeni Support for Counterterrorism Persists, Despite Instability,” http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20110610_2715.php]
Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of … interest in obtaining chemical and biological weapons.
_ Nuclear terrorism causes extinction
Sid-Ahmed, political analyst, 04
[Mohamed, Al-Ahram Weekly On-Line, , August 26 – September 1, 2004]
We have reached a point in human history … the whole planet, we will all be losers.
_ CBW attacks cause extinction
John D. Steinbruner, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution, and Vice Chair, Committee on International Security and Arms Control, National Academy of Sciences, 12/22/1997 (“Biological Weapons: A Plague Upon All Houses” – Foreign Policy) p. lexis
Although human pathogens are often … but not necessarily its outer limit.
Third is India.
_ AQAP will launch attacks on India
Roychowdhury 9/6 [Gen. Shankar Roychowdhury is a former Chief of Army Staff and a former member of Parliament, “India needs a 360° terror appraisal”, September 6, 2011, Deccan Chronicle, http://www.deccanchronicle.com/editorial/dc-comment/india-needs-360%C2%B0-terror-appraisal-659]
. In this context, Al Qaeda …India must take due note of other threats as well and exercise the requisite caution.
_ A new terrorist attack sparks Indo-pak nuclear war and causes extinction
Zarate ’11 [Juan C. Zarate, Sunday, February 20, 2011, “An alarming South Asia powder keg”, Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/18/AR2011021805662.html]
In 1914, a terrorist assassinated …may be the greatest threat we face from terrorism.
Modeling Advantage
_ Plan is modeled in other counter-insurgency operations – including Afghanistan
Mitchell, Foreign Service Officer with USAID, 11
[Robert, "Yemen: Testing a New Coordinated Approach to Preventive Counterinsurgency," Small Wars Journal, August 1, smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/yemen-testing-a-new-coordinated-approach-to-preventive-counterinsurgency]
An American-designed strategy attempts … country will be aborted or significantly amended.
_ Successful Afghani National Police key to stability
Caldwell, Lieutenant General, and Finney, Captain Commanding General of the NATO Training Mission in Afghanistan and Strategist serving with the NATO Training Mission, 11
[William and Nathan, , "Building Police Capacity in Afghanistan: The Challenges of a Multilateral Approach," National Defense University, Prism2, No. 1, ]
Successful counterinsurgency operations and … to garner their support—which is critical to the peace and stability of Afghanistan.
_ Collapse of Afghanistan spills over to Pakistan and goes nuclear
Morgan, former member of the British Labour Party National Executive Committee, 7
[Stephen, Author, Political Analyst and Psychologist, "Better another Taliban Afghanistan, than a Taliban NUCLEAR Pakistan!?" YoursDaily, June 3, ]
However events may prove him sorely wrong. … China and Russia pitted against the US.
Plan
The United States Federal Government should increase support for civil law enforcement in Yemen. We reserve the right to clarify. You got questions, ask.
Solvency
_ Only law enforcement solves- studies and experts agree that law enforcement is key to short and long term success against AQAP
Knoetgne ’11 [Peter Knoetgne, Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, “Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil”, May 16, 2011, http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil, ]
Within a diplomatic context, the …or intelligence experts providing cultural, regional and international expertise.
_ Security forces have deteriorated – they have lost mission focus and the rule of law has collapsed
Green, fellow at The Washington Institute, 6-24-11
[Daniel, The al-Qaeda Crescent in Yemen, http://www.lebanonwire.com/1106MLN/11062404WI.asp]
Even before the current unrest in Sana'a… future operations, intimidates security forces, and weakens local government.
_ Governmental repression from the security forces increases recruitment for al Qaeda
Difo, policy analyst for counterterrorism at the American Security Project, ‘10
[Germain, Yemen and U.S. Security, June, ]
The Saleh government has largely failed to … most significant threat to their security and well-being.7
_ Only US action solves – key to reverse Anti-Americanism, critical to defeating AQAP
Green ’11 (Daniel Green, Soref fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, focusing on Yemen, al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency, and stability operations, “The American Moment in Yemen”, , April 18, 2011, LEQ)
If the United States adopts a new approach …. within which to launch attacks against the United States.
_ The plan solves terrorism better than the military option
Boyle and Schmid ‘9 [A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism: Towards a Robust Multilateral Counter-Terrorism Regime Dr. Michael J. Boyle and Professor Alex P. Schmid Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence University of St. Andrews Sponsored by the The New Ideas Fund, 2009, http://www.newideasfund.org/proposals/NIF_Global%20Compact.pdf]
The first model is characterized by police … opportunities for terrorist crimes, must be placed higher on the agenda of counter-terrorism.
_ Non-military counter-terrorism cooperation is key countering current US policy
Boyle and Schmid ‘9 [A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism: Towards a Robust Multilateral Counter-Terrorism Regime Dr. Michael J. Boyle and Professor Alex P. Schmid Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence University of St. Andrews Sponsored by the The New Ideas Fund, 2009, http://www.newideasfund.org/proposals/NIF_Global%20Compact.pdf]
The goal of the Bush administration to spread … co-ordination and cooperation.
_ Police establishes a new model for counter-terrorism
Boyle and Schmid ‘9 [A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism: Towards a Robust Multilateral Counter-Terrorism Regime Dr. Michael J. Boyle and Professor Alex P. Schmid Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence University of St. Andrews Sponsored by the The New Ideas Fund, 2009, http://www.newideasfund.org/proposals/NIF_Global%20Compact.pdf]
A turn towards a police-focused criminal … by the President Elect in his election campaign.
_ Assistance to professionalize law enforcement is critical
Boucek, Middle East Program Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 7-19-11
[Christopher, U.S. POLICY IN YEMEN; COMMITTEE: SENATE FOREIGN RELATIONS; SUBCOMMITTEE: NEAR EASTERN AND SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIAN AFFAIRS, lexis]
Washington should also focus on other … the number of now-infamous 'escapes'.
_ Security training and developing local knowledge are key
Green, fellow at The Washington Institute, 6-24-11
[Daniel, The al-Qaeda Crescent in Yemen, http://www.lebanonwire.com/1106MLN/11062404WI.asp]
Much like AQAP, the U.S. approach must be … AQAP and thwart any new attacks it may be planning on the United States.
_ Bolstering the rule of law and shoring up the quality of the judiciary is key. Failure risks the collapse of Yemen.
Dimou, associate at the Centre for Strategic Studies of the University of Jordan and head of the Middle East and Persian Gulf Unit at the Centre for Security and Defence Analyses, 8-24-10
[Antonia, Yemen on the Brink, http://www.worldpress.org/Mideast/3612.cfm]
Al Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula …strong, independent judiciary is urgent.
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