Observation I: Terrorism
___ 2012 is a key. Counter-terrorism is beginning to wane.
Gunaratna, Professor and Head, International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, 1-30-12 [Rohan, Terrorism Outlook In 2012: The Threat Continues – Analysis, http://www.eurasiareview.com/30012012-terrorism-outlook-in-2012-the-threat-continues-analysis/]
THE YEAR 2012 will be a crucial year
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who view both as defeat for the US.
___ The loss of Saleh makes it likely we won’t work to engage Yemen
Joscelyn and Roggio, senior fellows at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 2-6-12 [Thomas and Bill, Strategic Retreat, http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/strategic-retreat/]
The Obama administration lauds its counterterrorism partnerships with
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seek to influence the course their nations take.
___ Current strategies are hamstrung - can’t operate outside of the capital
Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf)
473 Beginning no later than 2009, State
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contact many would have with the United States.
___ The inability to operate across the nation has collapses intelligence and communication strategies
Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf)
The strikes also increased travel restrictions on Western
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government and assume an increased operational presence abroad.
___ Yemen key to global Al Qaeda operations
Roggio, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 1-31-12 [Bill, US Drone Strike Kills 11 AQAP Leaders, Fighters: Report, http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/us-drone-strike-kills-11-aqap-leaders-fighters-report/]
Yemen has become one of al Qaeda's most
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as a hub for attacks against the West.
___ Recent strikes don’t signal the end of Al Qaeda
Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf)
The reported deaths of Anwar al-`Awlaqi
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operations, the central focus of this report.
___ AQAP is taking control of the South – Aden is at risk
Roggio, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 1-16-12 [Bill, AQAP Fighters Seize Control of Yemeni Town, Swear Allegiance to Zawahiri, http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/aqap-fighters-seize-control-of-yemeni-town-swear-allegiance-to-zawahiri/]
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has taken
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of Aden as ripe for an AQAP takeover.
___ AQAP is increasing its hold on Yemen – this makes an attack on the US more likely
Joscelyn and Roggio, senior fellows at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 2-6-12 [Thomas and Bill, Strategic Retreat, http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/strategic-retreat/]
Elsewhere in Yemen AQAP continues to hold territory
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to strike American targets in the long run.
___ And, efforts can only solve if we get the local leaders
Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf)
Dealing a decisive blow to the group will
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and is not well integrated across local communities.
___ AQAP is close to engaging in nuclear terrorism and is also seeking CBWs
Grossman, Global Security Newswire staffer, 6-10-11
[Elaine, GSN, “Panetta:
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/nw_20110610_2715.php]
Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the
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is not just bad for Yemen, it's bad
only to threaten. Now we are at
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shown interest in obtaining chemical and biological weapons.
___ Nuclear terrorism causes extinction
Sid-Ahmed, political analyst, 04
[Mohamed, Al-Ahram Weekly On-Line, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm, August 26 – September 1, 2004]
What would be the consequences of a nuclear
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whole planet, we will all be losers.
___ Bioweapons cause extinction
Richard Ochs: 7-9-02
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Of all the weapons of mass destruction,
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such plagues? HUMAN EXTINCTION IS NOW POSSIBLE.
___ AQAP will launch attacks on India
Roychowdhury 9/6 [Gen. Shankar
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%B0-terror-appraisal-659]
. In this context, Al Qaeda and
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threats as well and exercise the requisite caution.
___ A new terrorist attack sparks Indo-pak nuclear war and causes extinction
Zarate ’11 [Juan C. Zarate,
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/02/18/AR2011021805662.html]
Another major strike against Indian targets in today's
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be the greatest threat we face from terrorism.
___ Only law enforcement solves- studies and experts agree that law enforcement is key to short and long term success against AQAP
Knoetgne ’11 [Peter Knoetgne, Central European
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yemen-amid-political-turmoil, ]
Within a diplomatic context, the US should
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experts providing cultural, regional and international expertise.
___ Local law enforcement strategies are key – they solve intelligence failures, avoid large-scale intervention, and solve leadership
Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf)
A strategy focused on eliminating the group’s core
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officials to engage with the Yemeni populace.473
Plan
The United States Federal Government should increase support for civil law enforcement in Yemen.
Observation II: COIN
___ Counter-terror policy in Yemen has moved from civilian law enforcement to a policy of targeted assassinations.
The Observer 10-5-11 [Mel Flanagan, Professor calls killing of al-Qaeda leader 'illegal', http://www.ndsmcobserver.com/news/professor-calls-killing-of-al-qaeda-leader-illegal-1.2630698]
Awlaki, a radical Islamist cleric, was
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a CIA and military operation," O'Connell said.
___ Yemen is the model for the future of counter-terror
MSNBC ’10 [Lolita Baldor, U.S. training in Yemen reflects wider quest, 9-8-10 http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39062472/ns/us_news-security/t/us-training-yemen-reflects-wider-quest/#]
Seldom visible in the Yemeni mountains, the
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at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
___ This drone model is causing a transition from land power which makes conflict more likely. The alternative is support for land-based deployments that can counter non-traditional threats. This kills heg and triggers great power wars.
Metz, Chairman of the Regional Strategy and Planning Department and Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute, 1-30-12 [Steven, To Maintain U.S. Primacy, Standoff Power is not Enough, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/11312/to-maintain-u-s-primacy-standoff-power-is-not-enough]
As the United States disengages from Iraq and
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the world in pursuit of its national interests.
___ Collapse of heg triggers nuclear war
Barnett, Professor, Warfare Analysis and Research Dept – U.S. Naval War College, 3/7/’11
(Thomas, “The New Rules:
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)
Let me be more blunt: As the
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in battle deaths from state-based conflicts.
___ Specifically these policies are driving us towards great power conflict with China
Barnett, Chief Analyst at Wikistrat, Analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses, WPR blogger, and contributing editor for Esquire, 2-6-12 [Thomas P.M., The New Rules: Slouching Toward Great-Power War, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/11383/the-new-rules-slouching-toward-great-power-war]
Arguably the greatest strategic gift offered by America
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those far-flung national interests is threatening?
___ Extinction
Straits Times, 2k [June, 25, No one gains in war over Taiwan]
Conflict on such a scale would embroil other
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would be no victors in such a war.
___ Retreat sends a key signal motivating terrorism and Iran.
Joscelyn and Roggio, senior fellows at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 2-6-12 [Thomas and Bill, Strategic Retreat, http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/strategic-retreat/]
Drones are not enough to contain this menace
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enemies is severely constrained by domestic political considerations.
___ Iranian adventurism risks US-Iran war
Parsi, National Iranian American Council president, 10-2-11 (Trita, “Iran's growing bluster spells danger”, http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-parsi-iran-20111002,0,3457401.story)
Yet, though it is preposterous to think
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. One small spark could cause a conflagration.
___ This escalates into global nuclear conflict
Russell, Editor of Strategic Insights, Senior Lecturer Department of national Security Affairs ‘9
[James, Spring, “Strategic Stability
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]
Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined
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, with substantial risk for the entire world.
___ Now is the key time as counterinsurgency policy in the shop for an overhaul – the plan is key. Failure in developing a new policy means large-scale intervention is inevitable.
Burke, observer/controller at the Joint Multinational Readiness Center in Hohenfels, Germany, 1-24-12 [Major Crispin J., Like It or Not, Small Wars Will Always Be Around, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/11238/like-it-or-not-small-wars-will-always-be-around]
If past is prologue, it is likely
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population, as well as from unconventional sources.
___ Plan is the litmus test for future counter-insurgency
Kotlow 11 (Kazimierz, Visiting Senior Service College Fellow at the Washington Institute, “Countering Extermism in Yemen: Beyond Interagency Cooperation,” Small Wars Journal, March 31, smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/720-kotlow.pdf)
Extremism, especially violent extremism, is a
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create and execute an agile and successful program.
___ Plan is modeled for other operations
Mitchell ‘11 [Robert, Foreign Service Officer with USAID, "Yemen: Testing a New Coordinated Approach to Preventive Counterinsurgency," Small Wars Journal, August 1, smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/yemen-testing-a-new-coordinated-approach-to-preventive-counterinsurgency]
An American-designed strategy attempts to link
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anti-terrorism programs are not yet active.
