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1AC - Law Enforcement

• Tournament: navy | Round: | Opponent: Pitt | Judge:
  
  

• Advantage 1 – Terrorism

   

  ___ Claims of AQAP death are wrong.

   

  Seattle Times 1-2-12 [Sudarsan Raghavan is The Washington Post's Africa bureau chief, Islamic militants build haven in southern Yemen, http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/text/2017142663.html]

   

  In this remote, sun-blasted corner

  AND

  head of Yemeni National Security in the city.

   

  ____ We’ll isolate several impact scenarios. First, AQAP is Strong, Drone Strikes Motivate Attacks on the US

  Stewart, 10-6

  [Scott Stewart, Stratfor Global Intelligence, “Yemen: Fallout from the al-Awlaki Airstrike”, http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20111005-yemen-fallout-al-awlaki-airstrike?utm_source=freelist-f&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20111006&utm_term=sweekly&utm_content=readmore&elq=8660a4136d144954b1fe85c0961a578f,  10-6-2011, Date Accessed 10-6-2011]

  His military commander, Qasim al-Raymi, is an aggressive, ruthless and fierce fighter, and his will continue their efforts to attack the United States.

  ___ AQAP has the Capacity – Christmas Day Bomber Proves

  Difo, policy analyst for counterterrorism at the American Security Project, ‘10

  [Germain, Yemen and U.S

  AND

  ]

   

  Attacks against the U.S. Homeland

  AND

  to conduct attacks in the United States.27

   

  WMD Attacks, Al Qaeda is on the verge – Intelligence proves

  Blake et al. 11

  [Heidi, Daily Telegraph investigative reporter,

  AND

  , February]

                 

  Al-Qaida is on the verge of

  AND

  and avian flu to develop lethal biological weapons.

  AQAP is Key to Acquisition

  Grossman, Global Security Newswire staffer, 6-10-11

  [Elaine, GSN, “Panetta:

  AND

  /nw_20110610_2715.php]

   

  Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the

  AND

  might, in fact, have acquired some.

   

  Nuclear terrorism causes extinction

  Sid-Ahmed, political analyst, 04

  [Mohamed, Al-Ahram Weekly On-Line, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm, August 26 – September 1, 2004]

   

  What would be the consequences of a nuclear

  AND

  whole planet, we will all be losers.

   

  CBW attacks cause extinction

  John D. Steinbruner, Senior Fellow,

  AND

  Houses” – Foreign Policy) p. lexis

   

  Although human pathogens are often lumped with nuclear

  AND

  this sort but not necessarily its outer limit.

   

  Third, AQAP will attack on India

  Roychowdhury, 11

  [Gen. Shankar, former Chief of

  AND

  , September 6, 2011]

   

  . In this context, Al Qaeda and

  AND

  , including possible “ricin bomb” operations.

   

  That sparks Indo-pak nuclear war

  Zarate ’11 [Juan C. Zarate,

  AND

  /02/18/AR2011021805662.html]

   

  In 1914, a terrorist assassinated Archduke Franz

  AND

  - can spark broader wars. from terrorism.

   

   

   

  Advantage 2 – Multilateralism

  ___ Plan’s key to international cooperation

  Boyle and Scmid ‘9

  [A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism: Towards a Robust Multilateral Counter-Terrorism Regime Dr. Michael J. Boyle and Professor Alex P. Schmid Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence University of St. Andrews Sponsored by the The New Ideas Fund, 2009, http://www.newideasfund.org/proposals/NIF_Global%20Compact.pdf]

   

  The end of the Bush cooperation for years to come on key issues surrounding counter-terrorism.

   

  ____ There’s unique Spillover

  Boyle and Scmid 09

  [A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism

  AND

  . Andrews Sponsored by The New Ideas Fund]

   

  The war on terror has failed to become

  AND

  more difficult than it would have otherwise been.

   

  ____ Multilateralism Solves Extinction

  Dyer, former senior lecturer in war studies at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, 04

  [Gwynne, The End of War,

  AND

  , p. lexis, 12/30]

   

  The "firebreak" against nuclear weapons use

  AND

  then history will repeat itself and everybody loses.

   

   

  Advantage 3– Afghanistan

  ___ Plan is modeled for other operations – including Afghanistan

  Mitchell, Foreign Service Officer with USAID, 11

  [Robert, "Yemen: Testing a

  AND

  -approach-to-preventive-counterinsurgency]

   

  An American-designed strategy attempts to link

  AND

  this country will be aborted or significantly amended.

   

  ___ Successful ANP key to stability

  Caldwell, Lieutenant General, and Finney,

  AND

  Strategist serving with the NATO Training Mission, 11

  [William and Nathan, , "Building

  AND

  ]

   

  Successful counterinsurgency operations and the transition of security

  AND

  critical to the peace and stability of Afghanistan.

   

  ___ Collapse of Afghanistan spills over to Pakistan and goes nuclear

  Morgan, former member of the British Labour Party National Executive Committee, 7

  [Stephen, Author, Political Analyst and

  AND

  ]

  Moreover, should the Taliban fail to re

  AND

  with China and Russia pitted against the US.

  Plan

  The United States Federal Government should substantially increase support for civil law enforcement in Yemen.

   

  Solvency

  ___ Only law enforcement solves- studies and experts agree that law enforcement is key to short and long term success against AQAP

  Knoetgne ’11

  [Peter Knoetgne, Central European Journal of

  AND

  yemen-amid-political-turmoil, ]

   

  Within a diplomatic context, the US should

  AND

  experts providing cultural, regional and international expertise.

   

  ___ The plan solves terrorism better than military approaches

  Boyle and Schmid ‘9

  [A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism

  AND

  /NIF_Global%20Compact.pdf]

   

  The first model is characterized by police work

  AND

  higher on the agenda of counter-terrorism.

   

  ___ Security forces are deteriorating – no mission focus or the rule of law

  Green, fellow at The Washington Institute, 6-24-11

  [Daniel, The al-Qaeda Crescent

  AND

  .com/1106MLN/11062404WI.asp]

   

  Even before the current unrest in Sana'a,

  AND

  intimidates security forces, and weakens local government.

   

  ___ Governmental repression from the security forces increases recruitment for al Qaeda

  Difo, policy analyst for counterterrorism at the American Security Project, ‘10

  [Germain, Yemen and U.S

  AND

  ]

   

  The Saleh government has largely failed to effectively

  AND

  to their security and well-being.7

   

  ___ Only US action solves – key to reverse Anti-Americanism and defeating AQAP

  Green ’11 (Daniel Green, Soref fellow

  AND

  , April 18, 2011, LEQ)

   

  If the United States adopts a new approach

  AND

  which to launch attacks against the United States.

   

   

  Pre-Empts

   

  ___ US Support for Syrian Opposition

  Middle East Online 1-4-12

  [US condemns Syria violence against protesters,

  AND

  .com/english/?id=49802]

   

  The White House on Tuesday condemned the Syrian

  AND

  asked to comment on criticism of the mission.

   

  ___ US is Engaging the Muslim Brotherhood

  NYT 1-4-12

  [DAVID KIRKPATRICK and STEVEN MYERS, Overtures

  AND

  Longtime U.S. Policy, lexis]

   

  With the Muslim Brotherhood pulling within reach of

  AND

  him letting Islamists take over a pivotal ally.

   

  AND Pakistan

  Business Recorder 11-26-11

  [USAID launches $45 million project in

  AND

  ]

   

  US Agency for International Development (USAID)

  AND

  $100 million during the next four years.

   

  The role of the ballot is to simulate enactment of the plan. That’s the most productive way to engage Mid East politics

  Heydemann, director – Program on Philanthropy and

  AND

  frmr Prof Poli Sci – Columbia, ‘2

  (Steve, “Defending the Discipline,”

  AND

  . 13, No. 3, Muse)

   

  When it comes to the study of democratization

  AND

  Middle East during the course of the 1990s.

   

  _____ Denying Specific Truth Claims is key – Method focus causes endless paradigm wars

  Wendt, professor of international security – Ohio State University, ‘98

  (Alexander, “On Constitution and Causation in International Relations,” British International Studies Association)

   

  Let’s face it: most IR scholars,

  AND

  , not second-order issues of method.

  Unfortunately, it is no longer a simple

  AND

  or how it differs from art or revelation.

   

  ___ Modernity solves violence

  Pinker, psychology professor at Harvard University, ‘12

  [Steven, Current History, Jan, Ebsco EJS]

   

  Lamentations of a fall from Eden have a

  AND

  the time thought they were a big deal.

  ___ Law Enforcement solves violence

  Pinker, psychology professor at Harvard University, ‘12

  [Steven, Current History, Jan, Ebsco EJS]

   

  Human nature has always contained a capacity for

  AND

  of law do not rely on force alone.

   

  ___ You MUST Evaluate Consequences

  Isaac 02

  [Professor of Political Science at Indiana-Bloomington, Director of the Center for the Study of Democracy and Public Life, PhD from Yale, Jeffery C., Dissent Magazine, Vol. 49, Iss. 2, “Ends, Means, and Politics,” p. Proquest]

   

  Power is the ability to effect And it undermines political effectiveness.

   

   ___ Democracy Assistance to MENA will increase

  POMED 10-12-11

  [Project on Middle East Democracy, Strengthening

  AND

  Democratic Institute; POMED Executive Director Stephen McInerney]

   

  McInerney spoke about budget concerns, saying that

  AND

  , democracy assistance to the region will increase.

   

   

   

  
  
• 
  
  

Texas 1ac

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• Observation I: Terrorism

   

  ___ 2012 is a key.  Counter-terrorism is beginning to wane.

   

  Gunaratna, Professor and Head, International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, 1-30-12 [Rohan, Terrorism Outlook In 2012: The Threat Continues – Analysis, http://www.eurasiareview.com/30012012-terrorism-outlook-in-2012-the-threat-continues-analysis/]

   

  THE YEAR 2012 will be a crucial year

  AND

  who view both as defeat for the US.

   

  ___ The loss of Saleh makes it likely we won’t work to engage Yemen

   

  Joscelyn and Roggio, senior fellows at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 2-6-12 [Thomas and Bill, Strategic Retreat, http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/strategic-retreat/]

   

  The Obama administration lauds its counterterrorism partnerships with

  AND

  seek to influence the course their nations take.

   

  ___ Current strategies are hamstrung - can’t operate outside of the capital

   

  Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf)

   

  473 Beginning no later than 2009, State

  AND

  contact many would have with the United States.

   

  ___ The inability to operate across the nation has collapses intelligence and communication strategies

   

  Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf)

   

  The strikes also increased travel restrictions on Western

  AND

  government and assume an increased operational presence abroad.

   

  ___ Yemen key to global Al Qaeda operations

   

  Roggio, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 1-31-12 [Bill, US Drone Strike Kills 11 AQAP Leaders, Fighters: Report, http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/us-drone-strike-kills-11-aqap-leaders-fighters-report/]

   

  Yemen has become one of al Qaeda's most

  AND

  as a hub for attacks against the West.

   

  ___ Recent strikes don’t signal the end of Al Qaeda

   

  Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf)

   

  The reported deaths of Anwar al-`Awlaqi

  AND

  operations, the central focus of this report.

  ___ AQAP is taking control of the South – Aden is at risk

   

  Roggio, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 1-16-12 [Bill, AQAP Fighters Seize Control of Yemeni Town, Swear Allegiance to Zawahiri, http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/aqap-fighters-seize-control-of-yemeni-town-swear-allegiance-to-zawahiri/]

   

  Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has taken

  AND

  of Aden as ripe for an AQAP takeover.

   

  ___ AQAP is increasing its hold on Yemen – this makes an attack on the US more likely

   

  Joscelyn and Roggio, senior fellows at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 2-6-12 [Thomas and Bill, Strategic Retreat, http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/strategic-retreat/]

   

  Elsewhere in Yemen AQAP continues to hold territory

  AND

  to strike American targets in the long run.

   

  ___ And, efforts can only solve if we get the local leaders

   

  Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf)

   

  Dealing a decisive blow to the group will

  AND

  and is not well integrated across local communities.

   

  ___ AQAP is close to engaging in nuclear terrorism and is also seeking CBWs

   

  Grossman, Global Security Newswire staffer, 6-10-11

  [Elaine, GSN, “Panetta:

  AND

  /nw_20110610_2715.php]

   

  Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the

  AND

  is not just bad for Yemen, it's bad

  only to threaten. Now we are at

  AND

  shown interest in obtaining chemical and biological weapons.

   

  ___ Nuclear terrorism causes extinction

  Sid-Ahmed, political analyst, 04

  [Mohamed, Al-Ahram Weekly On-Line, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm, August 26 – September 1, 2004]

   

  What would be the consequences of a nuclear

  AND

  whole planet, we will all be losers.

   

  ___ Bioweapons cause extinction

   

  Richard Ochs: 7-9-02

  AND

   

   

  Of all the weapons of mass destruction,

  AND

  such plagues? HUMAN EXTINCTION IS NOW POSSIBLE.

   

  ___ AQAP will launch attacks on India

  Roychowdhury 9/6 [Gen. Shankar

  AND

  %B0-terror-appraisal-659]

   

  . In this context, Al Qaeda and

  AND

  threats as well and exercise the requisite caution.

   

  ___ A new terrorist attack sparks Indo-pak nuclear war and causes extinction

  Zarate ’11 [Juan C. Zarate,

  AND

  /02/18/AR2011021805662.html]

   

  Another major strike against Indian targets in today's

  AND

  be the greatest threat we face from terrorism.

   

  ___ Only law enforcement solves- studies and experts agree that law enforcement is key to short and long term success against AQAP

  Knoetgne ’11 [Peter Knoetgne, Central European

  AND

  yemen-amid-political-turmoil, ]

   

  Within a diplomatic context, the US should

  AND

  experts providing cultural, regional and international expertise.

   

   

  ___ Local law enforcement strategies are key – they solve intelligence failures, avoid large-scale intervention, and solve leadership

   

  Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf)

   

  A strategy focused on eliminating the group’s core

  AND

  officials to engage with the Yemeni populace.473

   

  Plan

  The United States Federal Government should increase support for civil law enforcement in Yemen. 

   

  Observation II: COIN

   

  ___ Counter-terror policy in Yemen has moved from civilian law enforcement to a policy of targeted assassinations.

   

  The Observer 10-5-11 [Mel Flanagan, Professor calls killing of al-Qaeda leader 'illegal', http://www.ndsmcobserver.com/news/professor-calls-killing-of-al-qaeda-leader-illegal-1.2630698]

   

  Awlaki, a radical Islamist cleric, was

  AND

  a CIA and military operation," O'Connell said.

  ___ Yemen is the model for the future of counter-terror

   

  MSNBC ’10 [Lolita Baldor, U.S. training in Yemen reflects wider quest, 9-8-10 http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39062472/ns/us_news-security/t/us-training-yemen-reflects-wider-quest/#]

   

  Seldom visible in the Yemeni mountains, the

  AND

  at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

   

  ___ This drone model is causing a transition from land power which makes conflict more likely.  The alternative is support for land-based deployments that can counter non-traditional threats.  This kills heg and triggers great power wars.

   

  Metz, Chairman of the Regional Strategy and Planning Department and Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute, 1-30-12 [Steven, To Maintain U.S. Primacy, Standoff Power is not Enough, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/11312/to-maintain-u-s-primacy-standoff-power-is-not-enough]

   

  As the United States disengages from Iraq and

  AND

  the world in pursuit of its national interests.

   

  ___ Collapse of heg triggers nuclear war

  Barnett, Professor, Warfare Analysis and Research Dept – U.S. Naval War College, 3/7/’11

  (Thomas, “The New Rules:

  AND

  )

   

  Let me be more blunt: As the

  AND

  in battle deaths from state-based conflicts.

   

  ___ Specifically these policies are driving us towards great power conflict with China

   

  Barnett, Chief Analyst at Wikistrat, Analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses, WPR blogger, and contributing editor for Esquire, 2-6-12 [Thomas P.M., The New Rules: Slouching Toward Great-Power War, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/11383/the-new-rules-slouching-toward-great-power-war]

   

  Arguably the greatest strategic gift offered by America

  AND

  those far-flung national interests is threatening?

   

   

  ___ Extinction

   

  Straits Times, 2k [June, 25, No one gains in war over Taiwan]

   

  Conflict on such a scale would embroil other

  AND

  would be no victors in such a war.

   

  ___ Retreat sends a key signal motivating terrorism and Iran.

   

  Joscelyn and Roggio, senior fellows at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 2-6-12 [Thomas and Bill, Strategic Retreat, http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/strategic-retreat/]

   

  Drones are not enough to contain this menace

  AND

  enemies is severely constrained by domestic political considerations.

   

  ___ Iranian adventurism risks US-Iran war

   

  Parsi, National Iranian American Council president, 10-2-11 (Trita, “Iran's growing bluster spells danger”, http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-parsi-iran-20111002,0,3457401.story)

   

  Yet, though it is preposterous to think

  AND

  . One small spark could cause a conflagration.

   

  ___ This escalates into global nuclear conflict

   

  Russell, Editor of Strategic Insights, Senior Lecturer Department of national Security Affairs ‘9

  [James, Spring, “Strategic Stability

  AND

  ]

   

  Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined

  AND

  , with substantial risk for the entire world.

   

  ___ Now is the key time as counterinsurgency policy in the shop for an overhaul – the plan is key.  Failure in developing a new policy means large-scale intervention is inevitable.

   

  Burke, observer/controller at the Joint Multinational Readiness Center in Hohenfels, Germany, 1-24-12 [Major Crispin J., Like It or Not, Small Wars Will Always Be Around, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/11238/like-it-or-not-small-wars-will-always-be-around]

   

  If past is prologue, it is likely

  AND

  population, as well as from unconventional sources.

   

   

  ___ Plan is the litmus test for future counter-insurgency

  Kotlow 11 (Kazimierz, Visiting Senior Service College Fellow at the Washington Institute, “Countering Extermism in Yemen: Beyond Interagency Cooperation,” Small Wars Journal, March 31, smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/720-kotlow.pdf)

   

  Extremism, especially violent extremism, is a

  AND

  create and execute an agile and successful program.

   

  ___ Plan is modeled for other operations

  Mitchell ‘11 [Robert, Foreign Service Officer with USAID, "Yemen: Testing a New Coordinated Approach to Preventive Counterinsurgency," Small Wars Journal, August 1, smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/yemen-testing-a-new-coordinated-approach-to-preventive-counterinsurgency]

   

  An American-designed strategy attempts to link

  AND

  anti-terrorism programs are not yet active.

   

  ___ Foreign Aid increasing

  Derviş, Brookings Vice President and Director of

  AND

  and Governance Initiative, 1-6-12

  [Kermal and Homi,  Better than Expected

  AND

   

  The amount of funding allocated for U.

  AND

  foreign assistance at a time of global turbulence.

  ___ Non-unique: Syria legislation

   

  AFP 2-9-12 [US lawmakers urge 'material' aid to Syria rebels, http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jPvWbT8MOMv7mvbLbiD152qV9O3A?docId=CNG.90facd08a6b151bd4a2d5de4830d46be.181]

   

  US lawmakers introduced a resolution Friday calling for

  AND

  provide "robust humanitarian assistance" to Syria.

  ___ Contingency Fund

  Derviş, Brookings Vice President and Director of Global Economy and Development, and Kharas, Brookings Senior Fellow and Deputy Director of Global Economy and Development, Development Assistance and Governance Initiative, 1-6-12

  [Kermal and Homi,  Better than Expected

  AND

  ]

   

  The administration’s strategy of linking foreign assistance closely

  AND

  the funding needs of other foreign assistance programs.

   

  ___ And, Egypt backlash in Congress

   

  Democracy Digest 2-9-12 [Egypt NGO crackdown shows ‘shrinking welcome mat’ for democracy assistance?, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2012/02/egypt-ngo-crackdown-shows-shrinking-welcome-mat-for-democracy-assistance/]

   

  Here’s why: The subject of Egypt’s aid

  AND

  would be detrimental to Israel-Egypt peace.

   

  
  
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