SFSU 1Plan Text
The United States Federal Government should give civil society assistance in the Kingdom of Bahrain.
Democracy Adv.
Bahrain is the center of counterrevolution through violent crackdowns that kills the Arab Spring and will erupt in violence
Democracy Digest 9/16 (http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/09/bahrain-the-cornerstone-of-arab-counterrevolution/, Bahrain the ‘cornerstone’ of Arab counterrevolution, September 16, 2011,)
Bahrain “has emerged as
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in the pursuit of power.”
Elections will be flawed and only increase sectarian violence
Murphy 9/20 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20110920/ml-arab-spring-elections/ BRIAN MURPHY, 9/20/11, 1st Arab Spring votes more about stalling change, Barbara Surk in Muscat, Oman, contributed to this report)
In Bahrain, the special parliamentary election
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said the Qatar-based analyst Shaikh.
Civil society damaged through prosecution and unjust charges
ABNA 9/4 (2011/09/04, http://abna.ir/data.asp?lang=3&Id=263549 CIVICUS urges Bahrain Government to stop sham trials of activists)
(On 11 September 2011, 21 civil society
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languish in Bahrain’s jails.
Bahrain close to achieving democratic reform but a government-weakened civil society is stalling the transition.
BBC 8/16 (BBC Monitoring Middle East – Political, Gulf Daily News website, Manama, in English 16 Aug 11, Bahraini minister condemns opposition parties for boycotting by-elections)
The government is committed to reforms
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in parliament resigned in February.
Promoting civil society is the only durable method of democracy assistance. It allows local civic participation and pressures the regime for reform
Blum 11 (Alexandra Blum 3/10/2011 “The Future of U.S. Democracy Promotion: Strategies for a Sustainable Fourth Wave of Democratization,”)
Supporting civil society combats
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that will outlast foreign aid (Stanski 2005, 200)
US currently shows support for the monarchy - that stalls democratic transition. US action key
WSJ 8/13 (The wrong ally in Bahrain, The Washington Post, 8/13/2011, Brian Dooley,)
Thomas W. Lippman's Aug. 5
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firmly on the side of democracy.
US action key to pushing stalled reform and prevention of Bahraini conflagration
ICG 7/28 (“POPULAR PROTEST IN NORTH AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST (VIII): BAHRAIN’S ROCKY ROAD TO REFORM”, http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iran%20Gulf/Bahrain/111%20Popular%20Protest%20in%20North%20Africa%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20VII%20%20Bahrains%20Rocky%20Road%20to%20Reform.pdf, International Crisis Group, 7/28/11)
There is reason to fear
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as the starting point for negotiations
Now is the key time – we have a strategic and moral obligation to ensure democratic transition
Boot 9/19 (Time to Affect Political Change in Bahrain, Max Boot http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/09/19/political-change-bahrain/ leading military historian and foreign-policy analyst master's degree in history from Yale University 9/19/11)
It was precisely to ward off
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explosion toppling another American ally.
Adv. 1 Iran Influence
US silence on democratic crackdown contributes to Shiite Iran alliance and Anti-Americanism which destabilize the region
International Crisis Group, 11 (“POPULAR PROTEST IN NORTH AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST (VIII): BAHRAIN’S ROCKY ROAD TO REFORM”, http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iran%20Gulf/Bahrain/111%20Popular%20Protest%20in%20North%20Africa%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20VII%20%20Bahrains%20Rocky%20Road%20to%20Reform.pdf, 7/28)
Following on the heels of
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Washington purportedly wishes to accomplish
Current instability radicalizes opposition, causes Iran rise and internal violence – action to support democracy is key
Ahmed & Jacobs 11 (Ali al-Ahmed, Director & Joshua Jacobs, Gulf Policy Analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs “The Crisis in Bahrain” Policy Brief May 2011)
The US cannot continue to
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the sand is no longer an option for the United States.
Bahrain is the linchpin of Middle East sectarian war – failure of the US to act makes conflict inevitable
Gengler 11 (Justin Gengler, PhD Candidate in Political Science at the University of Michigan, 4-20-2011, “The Bahraini Time Bomb,” http://bahrainipolitics.blogspot.com/2011/04/bahraini-time-bomb.html)
The arrival of the GCC force
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Middle East time-bomb will continue ticking.
Bahraini instability leads to Saudi-Iran conflict and draws in US.
Salman 11 (Salman Shaikh, Director, Brookings Doha Center, 3-23-2011, “The Bahrain Crisis and Its Regional Dangers,” Brookings, The Bahrain Crisis and Its Regional Dangers)
While U.S. and international attention
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national dialogue that charts the future of the country.
Saudi–Iran tensions escalate into a regional arms race
Spindle 11 (Bill Spindle, political analyst, and Margaret Coker, political analyst, 4-16-2011, “The New Cold War”, WSJ, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704116404576262744106483816.html)
For three months, the Arab
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pressure to develop one of its own.
Saudi-Iran conflict goes nuclear- Saudi will get nukes from Pakistan
Guzansky 11 (Yoel, “research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University”, The Australian, July 1, http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/tehran-tests-saudis-nerve-on-nuclear-weapons/story-e6frg6ux-1226085108555, accessed 8/3/11,)
UNTIL recently it appeared that US security
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will invest in security arrangements that help guarantee the continuity of the regime.
5th Fleet Adv.
Shiite dissatisfaction with the current government in Bahrain and US silence risks loss of 5th fleet – key to deter Iranian aggression and weapons development.
Katzman, 7/7 (Kenneth Katzman, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, “Bahrain: Reform, Security, and U.S. Policy”, July 7, 2011,)
Protests that erupted in Bahrain
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has further strained Bahrain’s economy.
Fifth Fleet will leave Bahrain absent plans for long term stability; key to check Iranian influence and protect oil transports
The Australian 7/21 (“US fleet may quit troubled Bahrain”, http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/us-fleet-may-quit-troubled-bahrain/story-e6frg6so-1226098580227)
THE US Navy is looking at
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destroyers and a submarine based in Bahrain.
5th fleet is key to containment of Iran
MSNBC 11 (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42128126/ns/politics-white_house/t/bahrain-upheaval-tests-obama-backing-democracy/#.Tj4ex4LF-So, Bahrain upheaval tests Obama backing for democracy, 3/17/11
Obama doesn't want to
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some of them from other Gulf countries.
Iran moving towards nuclearization now – Credible IAEA reports confirm suspicions.
Veiluva 10 (http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/resources/books/BAC/chapter7.pdf, Iran's Challenge to the Nuclear Order by Michael Veiluva, Beyond Arms Control: Challenges and Choices for Nuclear Disarmament, March 2010.)
Accordingly, the three-year stalemate
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another cycle of Revolutionary Guard war games.
Nuclear armed Iran leads to Israel strikes
Hughes 8/25 (http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/John-Hughes/2011/0825/Obama-s-worst-nightmare-an-election-year-nuclear-ploy-by-Iran, John Hughes / August 25, 2011)
What would be the mother of all
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this into weapons-grade material.”
Israel will preemptively strike a nuclear Iran for nuclearizing – 3 reasons
Murphy 10 (3 Reasons Israel will attack Iran, http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2010/0813/3-Reasons-Israel-will-attack-Iran/Holocaust-denial-and-Holocaust-fears, Murphy, Dan 8/13/10)
Three Reasons Israel Will Attack Iran.
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has some Israelis fearing irrational behavior.
Israel strikes cause debilitating damage to the entire Middle East and bait terrorist attacks on the US
Sadr 5 (http://www.nationalreview.com/robbins/robbins200601100812.asp adi-tjc, Ehsaneh Sadr, Dept of Government and Politics at Univ. Maryland, Middle East Policy, Summer 2005,)
The military and political ramifications
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precluding any possibility of Arab-Israeli peace.
These wars escalate globally – culminate in extinction.
Moore 9 (Carol, BA in Polisci @ Wane State, “Six Escalation Scenarios to Nuclear World War III, 1 February, http://pakalert.wordpress.com /2009/02/16/six-escalation-scenarios-to-nuclear-world-war-iii/)
Israel is especially dangerous
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worldwide disarmament movement can stop it.
Single strike leads to extinction – No escalation needed.
Casey 6 (Mingus. Scoop News. “On the History of Nuclear Arms” 10 Oct 06, www.scoop.co.nz)
The ecological effects of nuclear
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sea life will probably die out.
Pirates plan on scourging Hormuz tankers during upcoming monsoon season; sharply increasing oil costs
Bloomberg 11 (6/15, “Pirates May Target Hormuz Tankers in Monsoons, Risk Adviser AKE Group Says”, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-15/pirates-may-target-hormuz-tankers-in-monsoons-risk-adviser-ake-group-says.html,)
Somali pirates, driven north by
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and in the Gulf of Aden, Drake said.
Oil markets can’t adapt to blocks in the Straits of Hormuz—price hikes would be inevitable
Gholz and Press, 10 (coordinator of War and Peace Studies at the John Sloan Dickey Eugene and Daryl G., Security Studies, “Protecting “The Prize”: Oil and the U.S. National Interest”, 19: 3, 453 — 485 http://www.luiss.it/mes/wp content/uploads/2010/02/SecurityStudiesProtectingTh ePrizeOilandtheUSNa tionalInterest.pdf )
Oil markets adjust to shocks,
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military strategy to protect American oil interests.
Oil shocks empirically collapse growth - Kill consumption and spike inflation
Roubini & Setser 4 (Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Business, Brad Setser, Research Associate, Global Economic Governance Programme, University College, Oxford, August 2004, online)
Oil prices shocks have a stagflationary
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spike associated with the invasion of Iraq is a good example.
Piracy destroys the global economy
Jerusalem Post 8 (“Column One: Civilization walks the plank,” http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?apage=1&cid=1226404794131&pagename= JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull)
Piracy is fast emerging as the
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$1.5 trillion in cargo annually.
Extinction
Bearden 2000 (Lt. Col Thomas E. Bearden, PhD, MS, BSCo-inventor - the 2002 Motionless Electromagnetic Generator - a replicated overunity EM generator Listed in Marquis' Who'sWho in America, 2004)
Just prior to the terrible collapse
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modified version of it, resulting.
