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Chcio Laczko-Parker Aff

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10/26/11
  • Bahrain 1AC – USC

    • Tournament: USC | Round: 1 | Opponent: UNLV | Judge:

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      Bahrain 1AC – USC 2012

       

      Contention I – Democratic transition is stalled in Bahrain

      The National Dialogue of 2011 was a total failure – it further entrenched the rigged game of Bahrainian politics

       

      Ulrichson, 2011.  [Kristen Coates, Research fellow at London School of Economics and Political Science, “Dark clouds over Bahrain,” The Middle East Channel, Sept. 6, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/06/dark_clouds_over_bahrain]

      The National Dialogue …not up for debate.

       

       

      In addition to a lack of movement on political reforms, crackdown is continuing and Shiite clerics are getting involved for the first time

       

      The Washington Post, December 23, 2011. [“Bahrain police attack Shiite opposition headquarters, break up weekly meeting by force,” http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/bahrain-police-attack-shiite-opposition-headquarters-break-up-weekly-meeting-by-force/2011/12/23/gIQAz8aQDP_story.html]

      Authorities banned the …will to reform.

      Despite the proven ability of American pressure to influence Bahraini leadership, the US has remained complicit – lack of credible reforms makes Bahrain a powderkeg

       

      Ulrichson, 2011.  [Kristian Coates, “Gulf States: studious silence falls on Arab Spring,” Opendemocracy.net, April 25, http://www.opendemocracy.net/kristian-coates-ulrichsen/gulf-states-studious-silence-falls-on-arab-spring]

      These depressing developments ..could be greater still.

       

      This complicity is driving a wedge between the US and public support in Bahrain and calling into question the basing rights for the fifth fleet

       

      Dietz, 2011.  [David, “Should the US reconsider its relationship with Bahrain?” Transterramedia, April 21, http://www.transterramedia.com/should-us-reconsider-its-relationship-bahrain]

      Matar Ebrahim Matar, … damaging option remains.

       

      Plan:  The United States Federal Government should substantially increase democracy assistance for Bahrain by providing material and technical assistance to civil society organizations in Bahrain.

       

      Contention II – US key to transition

      The key to Bahrain’s stability is the King acting on the findings of the international report – signs are good that Shias are ready to compromise with ACTIONS towards real reform

       

      Abrams, 2011.  [Elliott, former senior director for the Near East and deputy national security adviser handling Middle East affairs in the George W. Bush administration. He is now a senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, “Abrams: Last chance for Bahrain,” November 25, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/11/25/abrams-last-chance-for-bahrain/]

      The report this … the King half way.

       

       

      The US must act as a counterbalance to Saudi pressure – we should council both the King and Shia political groups on moderation and compromise – this could be the last chance in Bahrain

       

      Abrams, 2011.  [Elliott, former senior director for the Near East and deputy national security adviser handling Middle East affairs in the George W. Bush administration. He is now a senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, “Abrams: Last chance for Bahrain,” November 25, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/11/25/abrams-last-chance-for-bahrain/]

      The only counterbalance  the coming months.

       

      Only US can guarantee stability in Middle East – there is no alternative

       

      Freeman, 2011.  [Chas, retired U.S. Foreign Service officer and president emeritus of the Middle East Policy Council, “The Arab Reawakening: Strategic Implications,” Middle East Policy, June 1, EbscoHost]

      These changes are …in foreign policy.

      Advantage I – Basing Rights and the Fifth Fleet

       

      Perception of American hypocrisy in supporting Bahrain’s authoritarian government undermines U.S. base agreements not only in Bahrain but worldwide – The United States must demonstrate support for opposition groups or risk losing military bases worldwide

       

      Cooley and Nexon, 2011.  [Andrew and Daniel H., “Bahrain’s Base Politics,” Foreign Affairs, April 5, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=2]

       The use of force … under the bus.

      Loss of basing would decrease naval power which is key to deterring Iranian aggression and dealing with any crises that arise in the Gulf

       

      Goure and Grant, 2009.  [Dr. Daniel and Dr. Rebecca, “US Naval Options for Influencing Iran,” (report under consideration for publication by Naval War College), April 2009, http://www.lexingtoninstitute.org/library/resources/documents/Defense/us-naval-options.pdf]

      Engaging Iran is … of Iranian aggression.

       

      Beyond Bahrain, naval power is a means of power projection and deterrence to global conflicts

       

      England, Jones and Clark, 2011.  [Gordon, former Sec. of Navy,  James, former Commandant of Marine Corps, and Vern, former Chief of Naval Operations, “The Necessity of US Naval Power,” gcaptain.com, July 11, http://gcaptain.com/necessity-u-s-naval-power?27784]

      The future security … of the future.

       

      Overseas basing is key to US power and critical for responding to genocide, wars, weapons of mass destruction, terrorist threats and natural disasters

       

      Kramer and Nelson, 2005.  [Franklin D. and C. Richard, “Global Futures and implications for US Basing,” Working Group Report ACUS, June, http://www.acus.org/files/publication_pdfs/65/2005-06-Global_Futures_and_Implications_for_US_Basing.pdf]

      U.S. overseas … a variety of ways.

       

      Advantage II Iran Influence

       

       

      Current instability radicalizes opposition, causes Iran rise and internal violence – action to support democracy is key

       

      Ahmed & Jacobs 11 (Ali al-Ahmed, Director & Joshua Jacobs, Gulf Policy Analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs “The Crisis in Bahrain” Policy Brief May 2011)

      The US cannot continue … the United States.

       

       

      Bahrain is the linchpin of Middle East sectarian war – failure of the US to act makes conflict inevitable

       

      Gengler 11 (Justin Gengler, PhD Candidate in Political Science at the University of Michigan, 4-20-2011, “The Bahraini Time Bomb,” http://bahrainipolitics.blogspot.com/2011/04/bahraini-time-bomb.html)

      The arrival of … will continue ticking.

       

       

      Bahraini instability leads to Saudi-Iran conflict and draws in US.

       

      Salman 11 (Salman Shaikh, Director, Brookings Doha Center, 3-23-2011, “The Bahrain Crisis and Its Regional Dangers,” Brookings, The Bahrain Crisis and Its Regional Dangers)

      While U.S. and … future of the country.

       

       

      Saudi–Iran tensions escalate into a regional arms race

       

      Spindle 11 (Bill Spindle, political analyst, and Margaret Coker, political analyst, 4-16-2011, “The New Cold War”, WSJ, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704116404576262744106483816.html)

      For three months, ,,, of its own.

       

       

      Saudi-Iran conflict goes nuclear- Saudi will get nukes from Pakistan

       

      Guzansky 11 (Yoel, “research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University”, The Australian, July 1, http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/tehran-tests-saudis-nerve-on-nuclear-weapons/story-e6frg6ux-1226085108555, accessed 8/3/11,)

      UNTIL recently it … of the regime.

       




01/03/12
  • USC Roud 1

    • Tournament: USC | Round: 1 | Opponent: UNLV | Judge:

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      AT Remove 5th Fleet CP

      Kickout causes Iran emboldening

       

      Smith 11 Sr. Editor @ Weekly Standard—The Bahrain Crack-Up, Aug 8, 2011, LEE SMITH, Sr. Editor @ Weekly Standard

      http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/bahrain-bust_582134.html

      There have been … gets tough.

       

      The only warrant is Saudi emboldening—but kickout causes worse brutality

       

      Trombly 11—Daniel, GWU International Affairs student, "The unconvincing case against the Fifth Fleet", June 11, Slouching Towards Columbia, http://slouchingcolumbia.wordpress.com/2011/06/11/the-unconvincing-case-against-the-5th-fleet/

      It is not clear …offshore balancing works.

       

      Fifth Fleet Key to Middle East stability and economic growth

       

      Trombly 11—Daniel, GWU International Affairs student, "The unconvincing case against the Fifth Fleet", June 11, Slouching Towards Columbia, http://slouchingcolumbia.wordpress.com/2011/06/11/the-unconvincing-case-against-the-5th-fleet/

      Additionally, the Fifth … important to the US.

       

       

      Aircraft Carrier key to hegemony – also key to deter China’s new carrier

       

      Shraberg 11 (Aaron, “Near-Term Missions for China’s Maiden Aircraft Carrier,” Global Security News, China Brief Volume: 11, Issue 11)

      As China’s maiden … an aircraft carrier.

       

      Ability to deploy carriers guarantees crisis management – prevents conflict escalation

       

      Eaglen 8 (Mackenzie, Senior Policy Analyst for National Security at the Heritage Foundation, “Aircraft Carriers Are Crucial,” Washington Post, July 31, 2008, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/30/AR2008073003078.html)

      For any U.S. president,  ready to serve."

       

      AT Russia Oil DA

      1) No Link - Russia would support an end to the violence- they were part of the international criticism of Assad
      The Turkish Weekly 11 Tuesday, 2 August 2011 “Defiant Assad Praises Troops After Deadly Syria Crackdown”, http://maannews.net/eng/ViewDetails.aspx?ID=410228

      However, Moscow on … targeted, including Assad.

       

      2) Turn: High Oil Prices Cause Russian Dutch Disease Which Collapses Democracy And Short Circuits All Econ Offense

      Shlapentokh 6[Vladimir Shlapentokh, PhD in economics @ Soviet Academy of Sciences, professor of sociology @ MSU , “Intoxicated by high oil prices: Political Dutch disease afflicting the Kremlin”, Oil & Gas Journal, November 6, http://www.ogj.com/articles/print/volume-104/issue-41/general-interest/intoxicated-by-high-oil-prices-political-dutch-disease-afflicting-the-kremlin.html]

      Seemingly, the Russian … closely monitored.

       

       

      3) Oil Price Alt causes: Strait of Hormuz closure and US sections

      AP Today! Record oil price looms amid Iran quarrel, http://www.fin24.com/Markets/Commodities/Record-oil-price-looms-amid-Iran-quarrel-20120103, Jan 03 2012 07:50 AP

      Frankfurt - Iran's threat …is very unlikely.

       

       

      4) Russia’s Economy’s collapse inevitable, Multiple Warrants

      Aleksashenko 11[Sergei Aleksashenko, former deputy minister of finance of the Russian Federation and former deputy governor of the Russian central bank, is a scholar-in-residence in the Carnegie Moscow Center’s Economic Policy Program. “Russia: Stable but Critical”, July 21, 2011, , Sergei Aleksashenko, former deputy minister of finance of the Russian Federation and former deputy governor of the Russian central bank, is a scholar-in-residence in the Carnegie Moscow Center’s Economic Policy Program.

      While few things …which candidate wins.

       

      AT neolib

      Neoliberalism Good – General

      Don’t buy their trend-worshipping philosophers – neoliberalism does far more good than harm

      Christoph Blocher , Vice President of the Swiss People’s Party, 5-18-06, “Neosocialism versus Neoliberalism?”. http://www.ejpd.admin.ch/ejpd/en/home/dokumentation/red/archiv/reden_christoph_blocher/2006/2006-05-18.html

      Indeed it has …that of neoliberalism. 

       

       

       


      Neoliberalism Good – 2AC Extinction

      Moving away from pure-market neoliberalism allows anti-market forces to discredit the natural laws of capitalism and destroy humanity (gender paraphrased)

      Israel Kirzner - professor emeritus of economics at New York University and the author of many books about Austrian economics - August 2006 “The Anatomy of Economic Advice, Part I” http://www.fee.org/publications/the-freeman/article.asp?aid=5609 [nfb]

      Mises was, as …von Böhm-Bawerk). 

      1. Perm: Do Both

       

      A) The alternative can overcome the SQ. It can overcome the plan

       

      B) Perm solves:

      Collectivism is inevitable. Compromises between pure theory and data driven economics is key to prevent alternative failure.

      Steven R. Kangas, journalist, BA in Russian Studies, 1996 “A Critique of the Austrian School of Economics: METHODOLOGICAL INDIVIDUALISM” http://www.huppi.com/kangaroo/L-ausmain.htm

      In debates between … of civic-mindedness.

       

      Perm solves their methodology arguments

      Roger Koppl, Professor of Economics and Finance Fairleigh Dickinson University, Forthcoming. Rational-Choice Hermeneutics. Journal of Economic Behaviorand Organization, 2004, http://www.csun.edu/~dgw61315/RCHfinal.pdf

      In the modern … of human action.

       

       

       


      Neoliberalism Good – 2AC Solves Violence

      We win the race to the internal link – every relevant example in the last thirty years suggests that neoliberal market policies dramatically decrease violence

      John A. Tures, Associate Professor of Political Science at LaGrange College, 2003, “ECONOMIC FREEDOM AND CONFLICT REDUCTION: EVIDENCE FROM THE 1970S, 1980S, AND 1990S”, Cato Journal, Vol. 22, No. 3. http://www.cato.org/pubs/journal/cj22n3/cj22n3-9.pdf

      The last three … past three decades.

      AT Jackson - Vianick PLX

      Passing controversial polices boosts capital

       

      Singer 9 (Jonathan, Juris Doctorate candidate at Berkeley Law, “By Expending Capital, Obama Grows His Capital,” My Direct Democracy, http://mydd.com/2009/3/3/by-expending-capital-obama-grows-his-capital)

      Despite the country's … as a result.

       

      Not top of the docket – the pipeline decision will drain capital before the tax-cut extension can even be discussed

       

      Daly 1/2 (Matthew, “Obama, Congress begin 2012 in oil pipeline dispute,” Washington Times, January 2, 2012, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/jan/2/obama-congress-begin-2012-oil-pipeline-dispute/)

      President Barack Obama …energy to extract.

      Winners win

       

      Green 10 (David Michael, professor of political science at Hofstra University in New York, “The Do-Nothing 44th President,” Op-Ed News, June 11, 2010, http://www.opednews.com/articles/The-Do-Nothing-44th-Presid-by-David-Michael-Gree-100611-648.html)

      Moreover, there is … what they did.

      The DA is not intrinsic to the plan – logical policy makers can pass a payroll tax cut extension and send democracy assistance to Bahrain.

      Give a Russia war impact zero probability – politics, military superiority, economic concerns, and nuclear security all check war

       

      Thomas Graham, senior advisor on Russia in the US National Security Council staff 2002-2007, September 2007, "Russia in Global Affairs” July - September 2007,The Dialectics of Strength and Weakness

      An astute historian … relations with Russia.

       

      Even a rapid US-Russia war would end in peace negotiations before nukes were launched – Russian generals concede.

       

      Colonel General LeonidIvashov, President of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems. July 2007 “WILL AMERICA FIGHT RUSSIA”. Defense and Security, No 78. LN 

      Ivashov: Numerous scenarios …negotiations into motion.

      John Kerry supports the plan – wants civil society freedom in Bahrain

       

      Rozen 11 (Laura, reports on the world of foreign policy from Foggy Bottom to the White House, the Hill to Embassy Row, for Foreign Policy's reported, daily online column, The Cable, “U.S. urges restraint on Bahrain after overnight attack,” Politico, February 17, 2011, http://www.politico.com/blogs/laurarozen/0211/US_urges_restraint_on_Bahrain_after_overnight_attack_on_protesters.html)

      A top Senate …greater political freedom.”

      Kerry key to the agenda – our ev is specific to the current administration and Middle East foreign policy

       

      Traub 7/14 (James, “The All-American,” New York times, July 14, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/17/magazine/john-kerry-our-man-in-kabul.html?pagewanted=1&_r=2)

      The last time … good in each case.




01/03/12
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