Contention One is Inherency
Libya needs U.S. assistance to form a stable and transparent government
NYT 10/21 (New York Times, “U.S. must have role in shaping new Libya”, 2011, http://www.statesman.com/opinion/u-s-must-have-role-in-shaping-new-1927837.html?viewAsSinglePage=true)
Jibril has said that with and peaceful democracy.
Contention Two is the Advantages
Advantage 1 is Civil War
The risk of another civil war is high now
Vatutin 11 (Alexander, Voice of Russia Correspondent, Libya on the verge of chaos and civil war - experts ,http://english.ruvr.ru/2011/12/12/62092662.html)
Warnings from many experts …that it could break up into parts.
Governance and transparency solves Libyan factionalism
Dobbins and Wehrey 11 (James, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State, is director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at the RAND Corporation and Frederic, senior policy analyst at RAND, 8/23, “Libyan Nation-Building After Qaddafi”, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68227/james-dobbins-and-frederic-wehrey/libyan-nation-building-after-qaddafi?page=show)
With the fall of the Libyan …nevertheless be long and rocky.
Further instability will cause a global war – Russia and China get drawn in
Lendman 11 (Stephen, Harvard BA and Wharton MBA, 7/6, “Libya - Flashpoint For World Conflict”, http://www.rense.com/general94/libya.htm)
Scott told Progressive Radio News … seemed in early 1914.
Advantage 2 is China
The civil war collapsed Libya’s oil production – creating a stable NTC is key to revitalizing the industry
Fahey and Kahn 11 (Jonathon and Chris, AP, 10/22, Gadhafi's death helps clear way for Libyan oil exports, http://www.chinapost.com.tw/business/africa/2011/10/22/320596/Gadhafis-death.htm)
The oil market's reaction to … oil-field engineers will be safe.
A functional NTC is key to Libya’s oil trade with China – but current instability makes collaboration unlikely
Xinyu 11 (Mei, 11/2, p.9, China-Libya ties still vital, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2011-11/02/content_14020093.htm)
Now, the Libyan people … in the political situation.
Lack of access to Libyan sweet crude will encourage China to hoard oil from other sources – that causes high prices and competition with the U.S.
Pierson 11 (David, Libyan strife exposes China's risks in global quest for oil, http://articles.latimes.com/print/2011/mar/09/business/la-fi-china-oil-20110310)
But China's primary interest …more carefully, experts said.
U.S.-China competition over oil will lead to protectionism and war
Ridley 5 (Bill, news editor and energy policy analyst, Feb 9, China and the Final War for Resources, http://www.321energy.com/editorials/winston/winston020905.html)
There is no question that …world’s resources, particularly oil.
War with China will escalate to World War Three and end in less than a day
Farrell 11 (Paul B., J.D., phD in psych, economics specialist, 2/8, Secret China war plan: trillions in U.S. debt, http://www.marketwatch.com/story/secret-china-war-plan-trillions-in-us-debt-2011-02-08?pagenumber=2)
“Taiwan’s air force is grounded … … warfare will define human life.”
Perceived resource competition will cause China to dump the dollar – the U.S. will respond with violence
Slavo 11 (Mac, business and investment expert, 1/20, Plans to Save the Doomed U.S. Dollar, http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article25737.html)
China is officially the United States’ …response plans if and when it does.
Dollar dumping will collapse the economy within minutes
The Australian 5 (Aug 29 “Dumping of dollar could trigger economic September 11” lexis)
There is a potentially fatal flaw … dwarf the Great Depression of the 1930s."
Advantage 3 is Leadership
A lack of hands-on involvement in Libya results in waning U.S. credibility
Hamid 11 (Shadi, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center and a fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, 10/1, “What Obama and American Liberals Don’t Understand About the Arab Spring”, http://www.tnr.com/article/environment-energy/95538/arab-spring-obama-realism-democracy-neoconservatives-mubarak?page=0,1)
The reasons for the Obama …since they’re the ones who need to do it.”
Libya is the key internal link to solving the perception of U.S. weakness
Ghitis 11 (Frida, independent commentator on world affairs and a World Politics Review contributing editor, 8/25, “World Citizen: Libya Emerges as Major Test of Western, U.S. Influence”, http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:ckDLwiX-isgJ:www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/9882/world-citizen-libya-emerges-as-major-test-of-western-u-s-influence+World+Citizen:+Libya+Emerges+as+Major+Test+of+Western,+U.S.+Influence&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-a&source=www.google.com)
The future of Libya was …democracy, not to mention friendly to the West.
Obama’s lack of hands-on assistance risks the empowerment of tyrants and rogue nations. Action is Libya is critical to avoid this
Hulett and Henke 11 (Sue, Richard P. and Sophia D. Distinguished Professor of Political Science and chair of the Political Science Department at Knox College, 9/3, “Sue Hulett: Has Obama abandoned global leadership?”, http://www.galesburg.com/newsnow/x1638741805/Sue-Hulett-Has-Obama-abandoned-global-leadership)
We also know a bit more …promoting democracy and liberty.
Maintaining U.S. leadership is vital to avoid conflict, human rights abuse, and other impacts
Barnett 11 (Thomas P.M., Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads)
Events in Libya are a …the Pacific Century now unfolding.
A lack of U.S. leadership will encourage Russian and Chinese resurgence
Grygiel 11 (Jakub, Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis and the George H.W. Bush Associate Professor of International Relations at Johns Hopkins-SAIS, October 3 , “Great Powers and Democracy Promotion”, http://www.cepa.org/ced/view.aspx?record_id=319)
Alas, reality is different. Democratization …consequences of their actions.
Russia and China will take the opportunity to expand their spheres
Puddington 11 (Arch, researcher at Freedom House, responsible for preparation of Freedom in the World reports, September 2011, “Democracy’s Stake in the Arab Spring,” Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs, Vol. 5, No. 3, http://israelcfr.com/documents/5-3/5-3-3-ArchPuddington.pdf)
To be effective, this effort …the cause of freedom everywhere else.
Aggressive Russian resurgence guarantees global war
Blank 9 (Dr. Stephen Blank , Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, March 2009, “Russia And Arms Control: Are There Opportunities For The Obama Administration?,” online: http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub908.pdf)
Proliferators or nuclear states … neighbors or their own people.
Chinese expansion will cause power wars
Walton 7 (C. Dale, Lecturer in International Relations and Strategic Studies at the University of Reading, “Geopolitics and the Great Powers in the Twenty-first Century: Multipolarity and the revolution in strategic perspective”, Geopolitical Theory Series, p. 49)
Obviously, it is of vital …great power alliances.
Now is a critical time to take the reins – Obama is independently key
May 11 (Donald R, BS, with High Honors and Distinction in Microbiology, in 1968 from the University of Illinois, Champaign, and his MD from the University of Illinois College of Medicine, Chicago, was an intern at the Northwestern University Memorial Hospitals in Chicago, was a Major in the United States Air Force and was on active duty at the Wilford Hall USAF Medical Center, San Antonio, received the Air Force Commendation Medal, has been on the faculties of the University of Illinois, the University of Texas, the University of California, Tulane University, and Texas Tech and taught MBA students, “We Need to Help Libya Now”, 10/21, http://lubbockonline.com/interact/blog-post/may/2011-10-21/we-need-help-libya-now#.TqY_pLJcCnc)
The death of Moammar Gadhafi …in the Middle East.
Thus the plan: The United States federal government should substantially increase democratic governance support for Libya.
Contention Three is Solvency
Assistance with governance and transparency solves NTC credibility and proves U.S. commitment
Engel 11 (Former Research Assistant-The Washington Institute & Beirut-based analyst who recently traveled across Libya, 11/2, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3417)
Libya's challenges are immense, …a democratic state with Islamic values.
Cordesman 11 (Anthony H. Cordesman is Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at Center for Strategic and International Studies and acts as a national security analyst for ABC News “Next Steps in Libya (Egypt, Tunisia, and Other States with New Regimes)”, 8/22, http://csis.org/publication/next-steps-libya-egypt-tunisia-and-other-states-new-regimes)
Qaddafi’s fall is certain to be …be paid in US and allied blood.
Libya will say yes to the plan – that stabilizes the NTC
Solomon 11(Daniel, Georgetown University African Studies Program Research Assistant and Former Intern at the US Department of State, 8/24, “Pulling The Strings From Behind The Curtain”, http://www.policymic.com/article/show?id=1466&op=yes)
Muammar Gaddafi’s 42-year-old …engagement in stabilization and reconstruction.
Plan is key to keeping the NTC accountable – solves civilian mistrust
al-Ameri 11 (Alaa, British-Libyan economist, 8/23, “As Gaddafi's reign ends, the work of creating democracy in Libya begins”, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/aug/23/gaddafi-democracy-libya)
The long battle to remove …democratic social institutions.