Advantage 1—Civil War:
Yemeni President Saleh is playing a waiting game to keep his regime in power
Yemen Post 11
http://yemenpost.net/Detail123456789.aspx?ID=3&SubID=4138&MainCat=6
For 9 months the regime ….him and his family to pack up their bags and leave.
Saleh is trying to parlay the death of Al-Qaeda leader Awlaki into renewed American support for his regime
Financial Times 11 Saleh must begin ‘transfer of power’. By Abigail Fielding Smith in Beirut. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/aea3e4a2-eb76-11e0-a576-00144feab49a.html#axzz1ZlUj4Wv8
Yemeni protesters had voiced …. international backing in the past.
Absent sign of support for a democratic transition Yemen will fall into full blown Civil War
BBC 11 UN report warns Yemen risks sliding into civil war. A United Nations report says Yemen risks sliding into civil war unless political unrest is resolved swiftly. 13 September 2011 Last updated at 11:47 ET. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14901237
Inspired by the uprisings in….to take a step forward."
Now is key, Yemen is on the brink of Civil War
Kasinof Oct 17th
By LAURA KASINOF. Published: October 17, 2011. Violence in Yemen’s Capital Escalates as Clashes Enter Third Day. Laura Kasinof is a freelance print journalist based in Sanaa, Yemen where she reports regularly for The New York Times. Her articles have also appeared in Foreign Policy, The Christian Science Monitor, San Francisco Chronicle, Al Jazeera International, the Huffington Post and GlobalPost. She has discussed Yemen, the Arab Spring and Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula on radio and TV outlets such as BBC World Service, Democracy Now, Al Jazeera International and NPR. Laura graduated from New York University with a degree in Middle Eastern Studies and Politics. She has been living between Cairo and Sanaa for the past four years. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/18/world/middleeast/18yemen.html?pagewanted=1&_r=2&partner=rss&emc=rss
SANA, Yemen — Explosions rocked the….e protesters’ claim to be peaceful.
Specifically American support is key to prevent Civil War
Foreign Policy 11
Any way out for Yemen?. Posted By Tom Finn Wednesday, September 14, 2011 - 2:28 PM. http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/14/any_way_out_for_yemen The Middle East Channel, “Any Way Out For Yemen?”
How things play out ….movement deserves something more.
A Civil War in Yemen will disrupt trade routes through the Mandeb Strait
Ruhe 11
Jonathan Ruhe is a senior policy analyst at the Bipartisan Policy Center and coauthor of the report Fragility and Extremism in Yemen (2011).. http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-horror-post-saleh-yemen-5435?page=1 The National Interest, “The Horror of the Post-Saleh Yemen”
Yemeni history indeed ... The United States had best prepare itself.
The straight is key to global trade routes and checking Iranian expansionism
UPI 10
(“Al-Qaida threatens to close key oil artery,” Feb. 24, 2010. UPI. http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2010/02/24/Al-Qaida-threatens-to-close-key-oil-artery/UPI-27151267027462/#ixzz1XPTj8CWP. CR)
SANAA, Yemen, Feb. 24 (UPI) -- Amid the …. a major effort to secure allies and markets.
We’ll isolate two impacts—scenario one is trade:
Mandeb is a key chokepoint – instability causes commodity price shocks.
Roman et. al, 08.
(Alejandra Roman, Editorial Assistant, The Encyclopedia of Earth. B.A. in Environmental Policy and Analysis and Hispanic Language and Literature from Boston U; Cutler J. Cleveland, founding Editor-in-Chief of the Encyclopedia of Earth. Professor in the Department of Geography and Environment at Boston University and Senior Fellow at the National Council for Science and the Environment in Washington D.C.; Tom Lawrence, Ph.D, P.E. and LEED-AP, is a Public Service Associate with the , and has over 25 years of professional experience in engineering and environmentally related fields. "Bab el-Mandeb". Encyclopedia of Earth. September 12, 2008. . CR)
The Bab el-Mandeb …. on world oil prices.
Commodity price shocks collapse all major countries’ economies.
Jones, 2011.
(Bryony Jones, “Roubini: Oil, energy, food prices a risk to stability,” CNN. July 16 2011. http://edition.cnn.com/2011/BUSINESS/01/26/switzerland.roubini.prices/index.html. CR)
(CNN) -- Rapidly rising oil, energy ...people don't see light at the end of the tunnel."
Economic collapse causes global nuclear war
Merlini, Senior Fellow – Brookings, 11
[Cesare Merlini, nonresident senior fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe and chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Italian Institute for International Affairs (IAI) in Rome. He served as IAI president from 1979 to 2001. Until 2009, he also occupied the position of executive vice chairman of the Council for the United States and Italy, which he co-founded in 1983. His areas of expertise include transatlantic relations, European integration and nuclear non-proliferation, with particular focus on nuclear science and technology. A Post-Secular World? DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2011.571015 Article Requests: Order Reprints : Request Permissions Published in: journal Survival, Volume 53, Issue 2 April 2011 , pages 117 - 130 Publication Frequency: 6 issues per year Download PDF Download PDF (~357 KB) View Related Articles To cite this Article: Merlini, Cesare 'A Post-Secular World?', Survival, 53:2, 117 – 130]
Two neatly opposed scenarios ... unbridled nationalism.
Scenario two is Middle Eastern Prolif:
Saudi-Iran conflict over Yemen causes a regional arms race
Spindle and Coker 11
(Bill and Margaret, "The New Cold War," The Wall Street Journal, April 16, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704116404576262744106483816.html)
But comparison to the short-lived flowering of ….develop one of its own.
Middle East conflict triggers nuclear warfare—end of the Cold War increased the risk of escalation
Primakov 9
(Yevgeny, President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation; Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences; member of the Editorial Board of Russia in Global Affairs. This article is based on the scientific report for which the author was awarded the Lomonosov Gold Medal of the Russian Academy of Sciences in 2008, “The Middle East Problem in the Context of International Relations” RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS VOL. 7 • No. 3 • JULY – SEPTEMBER)
The Middle East conflict is ….t completely rule out such a possibility.
Middle East prolif causes destabilizing arms races, escalation, and nuclear terrorism.
Feldman 6
(Noah, Professor of Law at the University of Harvard College of Law, "Nuclear holocaust: A Risk too big even for martyrs?" New York Times, October 27, www.nytimes.com/2006/10/27/world/africa/27iht-bombforweb.3310676.html)
Adding the nuclear …. and the incentive to make a sale will increase.
Nuclear terrorism will prompt US nuclear retaliation killing hundreds of millions instantly
Easterbrook 01, Senior Editor of New Republic
[
Greg, “America’s New War: Nuclear Threats,” Greenfield at Large, November 1, LN] bg
Well, what held through the Cold War, …. dozen Muslim countries.
Advantage Two is International Cooperation:
The US is perceived as only caring about counter-terrorism
Gude 11
Secretary Clinton Should Go to Yemen. By Ken Gude, Ken Sofer, Aaron Gurley | July 12, 2011. Ken Gude is the Managing Director of the National Security and International Policy Program, Ken Sofer is the Special Assistant, and Aaron Gurley is an intern at American Progress.
The United States has little capacity to f… be all about drone strikes on terrorists.
Our approach in Yemen is the litmus-test of future counter-terrorism strategy – the time is right for a strategy shift
Cilluffo and Watts ‘11
[Frank J. Cilluffo is the director of the Homeland Security Policy Institute at The George Washington University and Clinton Watts is a principal consultant at PA Consulting Group and a Senior Fellow at the Homeland Security Policy Institute. He is a former U.S. Army Officer and former Special Agent with the FBI., Homeland Security Policy Institute, “Yemen & Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Exploiting a Window of Counterterrorism Opportunity”, June 24, 2011, http://www.gwumc.edu/hspi/policy/issuebrief203_yemenAQAP.cfm]
Conclusion Increased use of …. prevent an inevitable attack from AQAP.
Yemen will be the model going forward – experts agree
Baldor ‘10
– Associated Press (Lolita C., 09/08, “US terror training in Yemen reflects wider program,” http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2012835332_apususterrorismtraining.html)
At stake is the stability of a troubled, …. as terror incidents with a Yemen tie occur.
This shift is critical to larger multilateral cooperation – there is a unique spillover effect
Boyle and Scmid ‘9
(A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism: Towards a Robust Multilateral Counter-Terrorism Regime Dr. Michael J. Boyle and Professor Alex P. Schmid Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence University of St. Andrews Sponsored by the The New Ideas Fund, 2009
The war on terror has….would have otherwise been.
Shifting strategies is critical to engaging Malaysia and Indonesia – absent a new foreign policy focus they refuse to cooperate with us
Comer ’11
[Charles "Ken" Comer, “The Parting of the Sulawesi Sea: U.S. Strategy and Transforming the Terrorist Transit Triangle”, March 2011, http://usacac.army.mil/cac2/call/docs/11-23/ch_13.asp]
The need for multilateral cooperation in …. provide the necessary resources to sustain it.
That’s key to solve attacks on the Strait of Malacca
Garcia ‘4
[García, David U.S. Security Policy And Counter-Terrorism In Southeast Asia UNISCI Discussion Papers, Núm. 5, mayo-sin mes, 2004, pp. 1-12 Universidad Complutense de Madri, http://redalyc.uaemex.mx/redalyc/pdf/767/76712467003.pdf]
U.S. counter-terrorist strategy is to l…. he situation in Iraq and the tortures scandal 15 .
Malacca disruption causes US-Sino conflict and kills relations
Zubir ‘5
(Straits of Malacca disruption kills US-China relations The Straits of Malacca: the Rise of China, America’s Intentions and the Dilemma of the Littoral States by Mokhzani Zubir Researcher Centre for Maritime Security & Diplomacy Mohd Nizam Basiron Fellow Centre for Coastal & Marine Environment Maritime Institute of Malaysia April 2005
Perhaps, herein lies the real reason why the US wants to bolster its presence in the Straits of Malacca. If this is the situation, then it is not impossible to envisage a future “worst-case-scenario” where the US would use the threat of terrorism and piracy or both to instigate an inspection regime that would also have the effect of limiting China’s access to oil, other raw materials, technology and industrial equipment. And it would not be difficult also to foresee China’s response to such a situation by exerting its rights to secure uninterrupted passage of goods and service to and from China. A shooting war between China and the US in the Straits of Malacca may seem far-fetched but there would no doubt be tension between the two powers if China perceives that there are attempts to limit its growth potential by limiting its access to vital chokepoints such as the Straits of Malacca. It is therefore in Malaysia’s and the other littoral States’ best interest to ensure that the Straits of Malacca remains open to international navigation in line with the principles of transit passage embodied in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
Extinction
Ratliff ’95
(William Ratliff, senior research fellow at the Hoover Institution, July 31, 1995, The Washington Times, “Long-term U.S.-China interests,” p. A21
Much of the growth and prosperity …. not the survival of the world.
Thus the Plan: The United States federal government should send Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Agency for International Development Administrator Raj Shah to Yemen in order to meet with Vice President Abu-Rabbu Mansour Hadi concerning the transition of power away from President Ali Abdullah Saleh.
Contention Two is Solvency
The plan solves, the symbolic importance of Hilary Clinton’s visit firmly cements U.S. support behind the protestors in Yemen and is enough to prevent a looming civil war
Gude 11
Secretary Clinton Should Go to Yemen. By Ken Gude, Ken Sofer, Aaron Gurley | July 12, 2011. Ken Gude is the Managing Director of the National Security and International Policy Program, Ken Sofer is the Special Assistant, and Aaron Gurley is an intern at American Progress.
The United States has little capacity …. serious challenges it faces.
Plan solves political fractions and ensures a speedy transition through regional partners, strengthening the oppositions ability to beat AQAP
Green 9/29
(Daniel, Soref fellow at the Washington Institute focusing on Yemen, Al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency and stability operations, ‘Yemen’s Saleh Strikes Back’)
Washington can take a variety …. representatives in joint consulates.
