<p>See Cal "Hodgman-Pramanik" and Cal "McLoon-Pramanik" for more detail  The 2N is "Pramanik" so all of that stuff applies, the most recent stuff from Harvard was copied here for convenience.</p>

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1NC Security K

Democracy assistance is tied to an understanding of order as entailing Western liberal forms – this is the basis for coercive interventions

Hobson 9 (Christopher Hobson, Department of International Politics Aberystwyth University, Alternatives, “The Limits of Liberal-Democracy Promotion”, #34)

Key actors seeking to support democracy abroad,

AND

for agency are prevented by unfavorable local conditions.

This strategy of containment creates a self-fulfilling prophecy

Sharifi 2008, (Majid, PhD Candidate, Political Science at the University of Florida, “Imagined Enemies: US Iran Relations,” 3/12/2008.

http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p252035_index.html)

The literature on Iran treats modernity and tradition

AND

that I consciously try to analyze texts dialogically.

This ontological commitment to ordering insecurity is the root cause of conflict, makes violence and serial policy failure inevitable

Burke 7 (Anthony Burke, Int'l Studies

AND

, Vol. 10, Iss. 2)

This essay develops a theory about the causes

AND

tragically violent 'choices' will continue to be made.

Vote negative to reject the affirmative’s security politics – effective decision-making should begin with how we constitute ourselves as ethical subjects

Burke 2 (Anthony, Int'l Studies @

AND

Alternatives 27, p. 18-23)

Refusing Security It is perhaps easy to become

AND

, and what its shimmering possibilities might be.

1NC Politics

Obama is aggressively pushing his jobs agenda - smaller initiatives like the payroll tax reduction are likely to pass

Werner, 10/25 (Erica, AP, 10/25/2011, “For Obama, new focus on the piecemeal,” http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jBBAuCkwwz36b0l5ZSe63veDz47Q?docId=c480f4a9b7634e9f8e0fd60ddd74c5ef)

LOS ANGELES (AP) — The president

AND

got to try to do everything he can."

No political support for the plan now - Congress will even fight to prevent budget reallocations

Richter, 11 (4/12/2011, Paul LA Times, “Debt worries stymieing U.S. financial aid to help Arab nations in transition; U.S. lawmakers not only have shut the door on new spending to stabilize countries rocked by the so-called Arab Spring. They have resisted proposals to shift money from other foreign aid programs,” http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/12/world/la-fg-mideast-aid-20110413)

The Obama administration's efforts to use foreign aid

AND

resistance from appropriators in Congress, aides say.

Obama is key to passage

Longbottom, 10/13 (Wil, 10/13/2011, “'I won't take no for an answer on jobs bill': Defiant Obama vows to continue despite Senate defeat,” http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2048604/Obama-I-wont-answer-Jobs-bill.html?ito=feeds-newsxml)

President Barack Obama has recorded a defiant new

AND

to pass the plan,' he said.

Recent polling data has revealed 52 per cent of Americans now back the bill, according to SBS.

Failure to extend the tax cut will jack the economy - it’s a top priority

Temple-West, 10/6 (Patrick, 10/6/2011, Reuters News, “Payroll tax cut needed to avoid recession: Zandi,” Factiva)

 (Reuters) - Failure to extend a

AND

need to act soon," Casey told Reuters.

Broad statistical models prove – unmanaged economic declines lead to global conflict

Royal, Director of cooperative threat reduction, ‘10 [Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction – U.S. Department of Defense, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises”, Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, Ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215]

Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline

AND

economic-security debate and deserves more attention.

1NC Israel

Israel is pushing for an Iran strike but the US has successfully persuaded them to hold back

Roshandel, Professor - Security Studies - ECU, 11

(June, Iran, Israel and the United States: Regime Security vs. Political Legitimacy, pg. 86)

It is clear from this statement that the Israeli government is attempting to place some pressure on the international community to seek further action against Iran. 

AND

Just as the United States has persuaded Israel not to attack Iran, legitimizing Iran’s threat in the process, by persuading Iran not to increase its nuclear weaponry for fear of retaliation by Israel, the United States in some ways legitimizes the potential Israeli response.  While “Israel the state” has enjoyed a close alliance with the United States, Israeli military actions have been treated separately from statehood.  Some may argue that there is, in fact, disproportionate support for “Israel the state” and Israeli military action.  The strong pro-Israeli lobby within the United States has dominated support for Israel’s war agenda, particularly its dealings with Iran.

The affirmatives indifference to Israeli concerns about the direction of the Arab Spring inflates fears that America will be unable to effectively stand up for Israel against Iran

Koppel 11

(4/29, Former anchor and managing editor of Nightline, currently contributing analyst for BBC NPR, The Arab Spring and U.S. Policy: The View From Jerusalem, online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704330404576291063679488964.html)

The canary in the coal mine on such matters is Israel.

AND

The only glimmer of good news for the Israelis may be that, when it comes to reliable allies in the region, Washington's list also keeps getting shorter.

Engaging the MB will be the triggering incident for an Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear facilities by creating profound questions about the US commitment to Israeli security

Roshandel, Professor - Security Studies - ECU, 11

(June, Iran, Israel and the United States: Regime Security vs. Political Legitimacy, pg. 86)

According to some within the Israeli government,

AND

If the United States is unwilling to act and Israeli officials believe that they can no longer tolerate what they view as an increased threat, the possibility of an Israeli strike may become more realistic.

Israeli attack causes great power war and crushes the global economy

Trabanco 09

(Independent researcher of geopoltical and military affairs, “The Middle Eastern Powder Keg Can Explode at Anytime,” globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=11762)

In case of an Israeli and/or

AND

right in the middle of a powder keg.

2NC Israel !

Israeli strike on Iran will cause World War 3

Ivashov, Vice-president of the Academy on geopolitical affairs, 07

(4/9/07, General Leonid, and former chief of the department for General affairs in the Soviet Union’s ministry of Defense “Iran: the Threat of a Nuclear War,” http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=5309)

What might cause the force major event of the required scale? Everything seems to indicate that Israel will be sacrificed.

AND

Forecasts of the territorial distribution of the fighting, the quantities and the efficiency of the armaments involved, the profound character of the underlying roots of the conflict and the severity of the religious strife all leave no doubt that this clash will be in all respects much more nightmarish than WWII.

Escalates and draws in the U.S.

Pletka, VP at AEI, 09

(12/16, vice president of foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute “Why Iran can’t be contained,” http://businessmirror.com.ph/home/perspective/19804-why-iran-cant-be-contained.html)

Advocates of a containment policy suggest that in

AND

into which the United States would be drawn.

U.S. will get the blame for an Israeli strike

Podhoretz ‘8

(Norman-, Feb. Editor-at-large of Commentary, Commentary Magazine, “Stopping Iran: Why the Case for Military Action Still Stands”, http://www.commentarymagazine.com/viewarticle.cfm/Stopping-Iran-br%97Why-the-Case-for-Military%97Action-Still-Stands-11085; Jacob)

But this still does not answer the question

AND

would if we had done the job ourselves.

2NC Israel Links

Israel opposes relaxation of Egyptian military control because the military holds back Islamists

Ben-Meir, Senior Fellow – NYU - Global Affairs, 11

(2/14, The Egyptian Uprising: The Lesson for Israel, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alon-benmeir/the-egyptian-uprising-the_b_823005.html)

The second more hopeful scenario from Israel's perspective

AND

could eventually look more like Turkey than Iran.

Israel will strongly oppose any action which facilitates empowerment of public opinion in the Arab world

Byman – Professor Security Georgetown - 11  

(Summer, Professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, Washington Quarterly, “Israel’s Pessimistic View of the Arab Spring”)

In the past, Israel used the lack of democracy in the Arab world to justify

AND

Israelis fear that the Mubaraks, Husseins, and other dictators are as good as it will get for Israel because these leaders are outside the mainstream of their societies.

Israel only feels secure with the military in control of the Egyptian government – they see the rise of Islamic extremism as the alternative

Ben-Meir, Professor - IR - NYU, 11

(2/18, Egypt-Israel bilateral relations, http://www.thedailynewsegypt.com/columnists/egypt-israel-bilateral-relations.html)

On Saturday, Feb. 12 the Egyptian

AND

Israeli peace treaty be undermined in any way.

Pessimism – Israeli security planners start with worst-case thinking – they won’t listen to the potential “benefits” of engagement

Byman – Professor Security Georgetown - 11  

(Summer, Professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, Washington Quarterly, “Israel’s Pessimistic View of the Arab Spring”)

Americans took heart as they watched Egyptian demonstrators rally in Tahrir Square and topple the regime of Hosni Mubarak in a peaceful revolution.

AND

The new revolutions also have the potential to complicate the U.S.—Israel relationship further and make it harder for the United States to benefit from the Arab Spring.

2NC A2 Relations Cyclical

The Arab Spring has changed the nature of Israeli threat perception – traditional concessions like arms sales don’t matter any more – US approach to regional balance of power is key

Setrakian, Middle East Reporter ABC, 11

(5/23, After Arab Spring, Israel's Season of Insecurity, http://blogs.abcnews.com/mideastmemo/2011/05/after-arab-spring-israels-season-of-insecurity.html)

In the troubling novelty of today’s threats,

AND

Israel can't trust America to defend its interests.”

2NC A2 No Strike

Israel is legitimately considering a strike on Iran – next few months key

Fiore, Fellow – War Studies – Kings College, 11

(July, Israel and Iran’s Nuclear Weapon Programme: Roll Back or Containment?, IAI WORKING PAPERS)

The IAEA’s report, the limited impact of

AND

most likely do in the case of Iran.

1NC SCAF

The US is mitigating SCAF backlash to democracy assistance in the squo – Ambassador Patterson just released records to promote transparency

Kevin Douglas Grant - Deputy Editor of Special Reports at GlobalPost, M.A. USC – 10/21/11, US shares NGO funding records with Egypt, http://www.globalpost.com/dispatches/globalpost-blogs/tahrir-square/us-shares-ngo-funding-records-egypt

US shares NGO funding records with Egypt

Ambassador Anne Patterson takes a concrete step toward

AND

but of the intelligence community,” she said.

The plan infuriates SCAF – it will use the plan to stoke public fears of Western interventionism

Paul Richter and Jeffrey Fleishman, Los Angeles Times - August 10, 2011, U.S. pro-democracy effort rubs many in Egypt the wrong way, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/aug/10/world/la-fg-us-egypt-20110811

Reporting from Washington and Cairo — Six months

AND

wants to be accused of being a spy."

Specifically, SCAF will scapegoat Israel – eventually it will be forced to lashout

Mudar Zahran – 9/9/11, Hudson NY, Egypt's Military Council Toying with Israel, http://www.hudson-ny.org/2410/egypt-military-council-israel

This fiasco served the military council ruling Egypt

AND

million-man-protests for this cause.

Tensions are high – Egypt-Israel conflict engulfs the entire region

Brady, PolicyMic, ’11 (Kyle, August, “A Dangerous Time For Egypt and Israel” http://www.policymic.com/articles/a-dangerous-time-for-egypt-and-israel)

Egypt and Israel have never been friendly neighbors

AND

given, more so now than ever before.

2NC SCAF T/Case

The SCAF will crackdown on NGO’s the plan funds – creates insurmountable obstacle to solvency

Democracy Digest 8/19

(Egypt’s military doing ‘exactly what Mubarak did’ to stifle democrats, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/08/egypts-military-doing-exactly-what-mubarak-did-to-stifle-democrats/)

The US announced $65 million in assistance to support the country’s democratic transition following the Jasmine Revolution that ousted former President Hosni Mubarak. The Egyptian authorities claim that foreign funding is a violation of national sovereignty and an unjustifiable interference in domestic political affairs. But democracy advocates view the attacks on foreign funding as part of a strategy to stifle civil

AND

The SCAF is using the NGO law for the purpose it was designed to serve under the previous regime – to ensure state control of civil society, he believes.

Aid-recipients are blacklisted

OREN KESSLER  - Jerusalem Post - 08/07/2011, Uproar in Egypt as US funnels aid to civil societies, http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=232829

A raucous debate is raging in Egypt over

AND

Organization for Human Rights told Adl- Ahram.

Supporting secular groups to hedge against the MB backfires – causes radicalization and undermines credibility of leftist groups

Ellen Lust - associate professor of political science at Yale – February 2, 2011, Enhancing Egypt’s democratic prospects: support the process, not the players, Democracy Digest, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/02/enhancing-egypt%E2%80%99s-democratic-prospects-support-the-process-not-the-players/

Interesting questions, but the wrong ones –

AND

. Let the people of Egypt do that.

A2 MB Advantage

MB is splintering – could only rule in a coalition government

RANIA ABOUZEID  -TIME – 9/29/11, Egypt: Why the Muslim Brotherhood Isn't All That Fraternal, http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2095351-2,00.html

As the political jockeying begins for staggered elections

AND

, cannot stand in the context of freedom."

Military will ultimately determine foreign policy – no risk of israel policy change now

Bargisi, Sep 12 (2011, Amr, senior partner at the Egyptian Union of Liberal Youth, “An Islamist President in Egypt?,” http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/islamist-president-egypt_592143.html)

It’s true that Nasser turned against the Muslim

AND

long as its own interests are left alone.

MB won’t start a war with Israel

Walberg, 11 - known worldwide as a journalist specializing in the Middle East, Central Asia and Russia, graduate of University of Toronto and Cambridge in economics (6/16/2011, Eric, “Turkey and the Arab Spring: Learning to Walk Again,” http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=46753)

Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman has expressed fears

AND

is clearly a more powerful and ruthless neighbor.

2NC No Impact

A Salafist will win the presidency – economic troubles will discredit Islamist politics

Amr Bargisi - senior partner at the Egyptian Union of Liberal Youth - Sep 12, 2011, An Islamist President in Egypt?, Vol. 16, No. 48 , Weekly Standard, http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/islamist-president-egypt_592143.html?page=2

Up until Abu Ismail’s candidacy, the prospect

AND

than to protect its own considerable business interests.

A2 Iran Advantage

Optimistic predictions about acceptance were wrong – Egyptian NGOs will deny assistance

Schenker – Gtown’s 1ac author / director, Arab Politics, Washington Institute – 9/15/11

David Schenker - (Gtown’s 1ac author) Aufizen fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy - Sep 15, 2011, Washington’s Limited Influence in Egypt, Weekly Standard, http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/washington-s-limited-influence-egypt_593552.html

While Egyptian officers clearly appreciate the benefits of military to military ties with Washington, the leverage derived from this relationship has been overstated.

AND

Just a month earlier, Cairo turned down a $3 billion low-interest IMF loan with virtually no conditions attached, a decision seemingly predicated on a popular aversion to the United States: According to a Gallup Poll taken earlier this year, 75 percent of Egyptians oppose accepting U.S. economic assistance.    

US democracy assistance causes backlash– damage to US influence is irreversible

Kristen Chick – CSM - August 12, 2011 , Why Egypt is angry over $65 million in US democracy grants, http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/0812/Why-Egypt-is-angry-over-65-million-in-US-democracy-grants

The Egyptian government’s hostile response to a US

AND

Aboulnaga was not available to comment this week.)

American credibility is in terminal decline – can’t influence other nations

Clemons, Director @ New America Foundation, 8-12

[Steve Clemons, Director of the American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation where he previously served as Executive Vice President, and the former director of the Japan Policy Research Institute, Washington editor at large for The Atlantic and editor in chief of Atlantic, “America Next: End of the World As We Knew It,” August 12th 2011, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/08/america-next-end-of-the-world-as-we-knew-it/243503/]

When the Berlin Wall fell in the summer of 1989, most of the world saw it as a crack so deep and fundamental in the superstructure of the Soviet Union that doubts about the USSR's solvency as a global power abounded. In nature, when a piece of ice larger than Rhode Island breaks off of Antarctica, one sees tangibly the very different world that global warming is shaping.

AND

Power, like an equity in the stock markets, is ultimately a function of future expectations  and today the reality is that America's stock has fallen dramatically and will only rise again with visionary statecraft revolutionary, new global deal-making that might restore the impression that America once again matters.

Cred is irreparable in the Middle East

Duss, 11 - Policy Analyst and Director of Middle East Progress (Matt, 7/21/2011, “Arab Opinions Of U.S. Unchanged By Speeches,” http://middleeastprogress.org/2011/07/arab-opinions-of-us-unchanged-by-speeches/, JMP)

A new Zogby International poll of Arab opinions

AND

this on the debate over Tunisia’s new constitution.

Iran is not a military threat – intentions and capabilities

Stephen M. Walt – Professsor of International Affairs @ Kennedy School – 4/20/10, More hype about Iran?, Foreign policy, http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/04/20/more_hype_about_iran

Back when I started writing this blog,

AND

nuclear" at some point in the future).

2NC Military Capacity Solves

Perception of military capacity alone is sufficient

Brooks 10 (Stephen Brooks, Assoc. Prof. of Gov't @ Dartmouth, B.A., Economics and Politics, UC Santa Cruz, M.A., M.Phil., Ph.D., Political Science, Yale University, “Stephen Brooks on Hegemony,” July 21, lecture at the Dartmouth Debate Institute, http://www.planetdebate.com/blogs/view/1043)

Second and final point to remember about why

AND

, but the fact is that we do. 

1NC EU Pressure CP

CP: The European Union should sanction the Central bank of Syria, oil tankers carrying Syrian oil and energy companies operating in Syria until they divest their operations in the country.

CP topples the wobbly Assad regime

Weinthal, Fellow at Defense of Democracies, 9-1

[Benjamin Weinthal, Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, “The Peaceful Way to Bring Down Syria's Assad,” September 1st 2011, http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/09/01/peaceful-way-to-bring-down-syrias-assad/]

This week, the 27 members of the European Union followed the United States’ lead in imposing sanctions on Syria, banning imports of Syrian crude oil

AND

The Obama administration is uniquely positioned to induce Shell and Total to leave Syria by threatening to deny them access to U.S. markets. The U.S. Treasury department set an important precedent in this regard in 2010, prompting Shell and Total to beat a hasty retreat from their oil operations in Iran.

Counterplan key to EU unity and credibility – uniquely key to advance EU security interests abroad

EFD, 9-5

[European Foundation for Democracy, Germany based Foreign Affairs Think-Tank, “EFD calls for comprehensive economic sanctions on Syria,” September 5th 2011, http://europeandemocracy.org/media/press-releases/efd-calls-for-comprehensive-economic-sanctions-on-syria.html]

EU must impose comprehensive economic sanctions on Syria

AND

opinion leaders in Brussels and across the EU.

Strong EU solves multiple scenarios of extinction.

Bruton 2001  (John, Former Irish Prime Minister, Report before the Joint Committee on European Affairs, Parliament of Ireland, October, http://www.irlgov.ie/committees-02/c-europeanaffairs/future/page1.htm, from Samford University Institute File)

2.5 As the Laeken Declaration put

AND

blind global forces that will otherwise overwhelm us.

1NC Hezbollah DA

The near collapse of Assad’s regime would force Hezbollah and Syria to initiate a destructive regional war

Noe, ’11

[Nicholas Noe, Co-founder of the news translation service Mideastwire.com and the author of the recent Century Foundation report “Re-imaging the Lebanon Track,” “The Hezbollah Apocalypse,” July 8th 2011, http://nationalinterest.org/print/commentary/the-hezbollah-apocalypse-5581]

Syria, where Hezbollah finds much of its logistical support—or “strategic depth”—is in crisis. AND

a road that will, in all probability, bring great destruction to the region, including to Israel whose home front will undoubtedly be a main frontline.

Hezbollah-Israel war would escalate regionally, create a Lebanese civil war, revert democratic transitions in the region and increase Tehran’s influence and nuclear capabilities

Saab & Blanford, Former Brookings Analyst, ’11

[Bilal Y. Saab, Visiting Fellow at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, Former Research Analyst at Brookings, Nicholas Blanford, Beirut correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor, “ NEXT WAR: How Another Conflict between Hizballah and Israel Could Look and How Both Sides are,” August 2011, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2011/08_hizballah_israel/08_hizballah_israel.pdf]

Peace, however, might not endure indefinitely

AND

prevent this outcome can design their policies accordingly.

Global nuclear war

Russell, Editor of Strategic Insights, ’09

[James- Senior Lecturer Department of National Security Affairs, Spring, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” Security Studies Center Proliferation Papers, http://www.analyst-network.com/articles/141/StrategicStabilityReconsideredProspectsforEscalationandNuclearWarintheMiddleEast.pdf]

Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined by various factors: (1) asymmetric interests in the bargaining framework that can introduce unpredictable behavior from actors; (2) the presence of non-state actors that introduce unpredictability into relationships between the antagonists; (3)

AND

 The international community must take this possibility seriously, and muster every tool at its disposal to prevent such an outcome, which would be an unprecedented disaster for the peoples of the region, with substantial risk for the entire world.

2NC Hezbollah Impact O/V

More Evidence

Dergham, Member of CFR, 8-14

[Raghida Dergham, Member of The Council on Foreign Relations, Member of the International Media Council of the World Economic Forum, Columnist and Senior Diplomatic Correspondent @ Al Hayat, “Turkey and Iran's Tug on Syria,” August 14th 2011, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/raghida-dergham/turkey-and-irans-tug-on-s_b_925593.html]

The decision may fall on the Lebanese card

AND

order that would not be in its favor.

Collapse causes Hezbollah attacks of the Gulf Region

Dergham, Member of CFR, 9-4

[Raghida Dergham, Member of The Council on Foreign Relations, Member of the International Media Council of the World Economic Forum, Columnist and Senior Diplomatic Correspondent @ Al Hayat, “How Will Iran and Hezbollah Respond to the Syrian Regime's Predicament?,” September 4th 2011, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/raghida-dergham/how-will-iran-and-hezboll_1_b_947499.html]

The regime of the Islamic Republic is well

AND

the differences between American and European stances appears.

Forces US draw in

David, ’99 [Stephen David, 1999, Professor of Political Science at The Johns Hopkins University, SAVING AMERICA FROM THE COMING CIVIL WARS http://web.ebscohost.com/ehost/detail?vid=1&hid=2&sid=c2660f14-2e09-4272-87dd-a190a4504351%40sessionmgr3&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d#db=bth&AN=1417620]

Conflicts fought within the borders of a single

AND

its most effective means of safeguarding its interests.

2NC Hezbollah Link Wall

Hezbollah will initiate conflict with Israel if Assad’s regime is near collapse – we’re quoting actual Hezbollah statements

Karouny, ’11

[Mariam Karouny, Beirut correspondent for Reuters, Reuters’ Deputy Bureau Chief in Iraq from 2005-2008, “Analysis: Lebanon's Hezbollah may fight Israel to relieve Syria,” June 22nd 2011, http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCATRE75L3S320110622?sp=true]

Lebanon's Hezbollah militant group is

AND

"All options are open including opening the fronts in Golan (Heights) and in south Lebanon."

Hezbollah will attack Israel to protect Assad’s regime – this is a realistic scenario

Baydar, ’11

[Yavuz Baydar, Journalist for Today’s Zaman, Chairman of The International Ombudsman Association, Former BBC Correspondent, “Hezbollah may move in to rescue Assad,” June 23rd 2011, http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist-248295-hezbollah-may-move-in-to-rescue-assad.html]

Lately, two reports indicate rather new patterns

AND

, it seems, that is opening up.

1NC Saudi DA

Collapse of Iranian hegemony means the Saudis takeover the Middle East

Saab, Former Brookings Analyst, 8-31

[Bilal Y. Saab, Visiting fellow at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, Former Research Analyst and the Coordinator of the Internship Program at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, Ph.D. candidate at the Government and Politics Department at the University of Maryland, College Park,  “How Saudi Arabia can contain Iran – and other benefits from Syria's turmoil,” August 31st 2011, http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2011/0831/How-Saudi-Arabia-can-contain-Iran-and-other-benefits-from-Syria-s-turmoil]

All of a sudden, Saudi Arabia finds

AND

and Iraq's politics are dangerously paralyzing and unstable.

That increases the threat of sectarian violence and AQAP terrorism

Gause, Poli-Sci Professor @ Vermont, 8-9

[F. Gregory Gause, III, Political Science Professor at the University of Vermont, “Is Saudi Arabia really counter-revolutionary?,” August 9th 2011, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/09/is_saudi_arabia_really_counter_revolutionary]

Would the monarchs of the Holy Alliance have supported a democratic uprising anywhere in Europe in 1820? Would Prince Metternich have backed nationalist movements in 1848?

AND

While the Saudis are correct that there are more Sunnis than Shiites in the Muslim world, privileging sectarian identity gives the Iranian regime an entry into the politics of many Arab states. Riyadh would be better served by encouraging a common Arab identity that overcomes sectarian differences and emphasizes the foreignness of Iran in the Arab world while marginalizing sectarian extremists like al Qaeda and its sympathizers.

Saudi failure to contain AQAP causes attacks on the West

Zimmerman, Analyst @ AEI, ’11

[Katherine Zimmerman, Analyst and the Gulf of Aden Team Lead for the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical, “Estimates for Scenario 2,” April 19th 2011, Threats Project, http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/yemen-strategic-exercise-2011-estimates-scenario-2]

AQAP may also seek to execute a spectacular

AND

1990s and may have financed al Qaeda operatives.

That cause international nuclear conflict

Speice, ’06

[Patrick F. Jr.-, J.D. Candidate @ Marshall-Wythe School of Law, B.A. @ Wake, Feb., William & Mary Law Review, “Negligence and Nuclear Nonproliferation: Eliminating the Current Liability Barrier to Bilateral U.S.-Russian Nonproliferation Assistance Programs”, Lexis]

Although no terrorist acts directed against the population or interests of the United States or other states have been launched with nuclear weapons yet, this failure "must be assumed to be due to lack of means rather than lack of motivation."

AND

 50 In addition to the threat posed by terrorists, leakage of nuclear knowledge and material from Russia will reduce the barriers that states with nuclear ambitions face and may trigger widespread proliferation of nuclear weapons. 51 This proliferation will increase the risk of nuclear attacks against the United States [*1440] or its allies by hostile states, 52 as well as increase the likelihood that regional conflicts will draw in the United States and escalate to the use of nuclear weapons. 53

2NC Saudi Link

Saudi hegemony in the Middle East post plan would cause massive sectarian violence and terrorism

Mainen, Analyst @ Institute for Gulf Affairs, ’11

[Matthew Mainen, Policy analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs, “Saudi's Dangerous Role in Syria,” July 25th 2011, http://mainen.blogspot.com/2011/07/saudis-dangerous-role-in-syria.html]

While Saudi Arabia’s involvement in suppressing

AND

A progressive and democratic Syria aligned with the United States will do the most to contain Iran, not a Saudi proxy.

2NC Saudi Proxy War Impact

Syria’s collapse would escalate to conflict – turns all of their intervention impacts

Doran, Senior Fellow @ Brookings, 8-22

[Michael S. Doran, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Foundation, Ph.D. in History from Princeton University, “The Nexus and the Olive Tree,” August 22nd 2011, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/22/the_nexus_and_the_olive_tree?page=full]

The United States must therefore dispense entirely with

AND

intimidate those Syrians who get in their way.

1NC Advantage CP

Text – The United States Federal Government should:

-       Engage in a broad dialogue with Iran over issues of mutual concern

-       Ban militarily intervention, including the implementation of air strikes, blockades and the imposition of no-fly zones in Syria

-       Ban the provision of political organization assistance for the Syrian National Council

CP Solves Iranian aggression

Dreyfuss, 1AC Author, 11 (Robert, investigative journalist whose work has appeared in The Nation, Rolling Stone, Mother Jones, The American Prospect, and other progressive publications. His work also appears on line at TomPaine.com. Dreyfuss received a bachelor's degree from Columbia University. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, Dreyfuss was Middle East Intelligence director of the Executive Intelligence Review, the flagship journal of the Lyndon LaRouche movement. His 1981 book, Hostage to Khomeini, was commissioned by Lyndon LaRouche and it was cowritten with Thierry LeMarc. The book was published by the LaRouche publishing house of the time, New Benjamin Franklin House. In the 1990s Dreyfuss wrote on intelligence issues and foreign affairs, and profiled a number of organizations and public figures, “Averting a Disaster in the Persian Gulf,” June 8, 2011, http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2011/06/averting-a-disaster-in-the-persian-gulf.html)

Both warned that military miscalculations between naval or

AND

similar agreement between Iran and the United States.

1NC Civil War F/L

1. No one wants to intervene

Saab, Former Brookings Analyst, ’11

[Bilal Y. Saab, Visiting fellow at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, Former Research Analyst and the Coordinator of the Internship Program at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, Ph.D. candidate at the Government and Politics Department at the University of Maryland, College Park,  “Top 3 Reasons Assad is Here to Stay,” June 30th 2011, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/top-3-reasons-assad-here-stay-5548]

Syrian President Bashar Assad will not listen—not yesterday, not today, not tomorrow—to the U.S. government.

AND

The fact is this: Assad is here for now.

2. No bioweapon could kill off humanity – natural resistance and technology check a superbug

Easterbrook (Gregg, The New Republic Editor) 2003 [Wired, "We're All Gonna Die!" 11/7, http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/11.07/doomsday.html]

3. Germ warfare!  Like chemical agents

AND

it seems unlikely to happen in the future.

3. MAD stops US-Russia War

The Nation – 8/28/08

AND

.com/doc/20080915/cockburn)

As regards disastrous and unnecessary military expenditures,

AND

hypothetical circumstances to remind them of these realities."

2NC Intervention XT

There’s no way we would sanction a military intervention to remove Assad – This evidence is also another reason Assad won’t fall

Dreazen, ’11

[Yochi Dreazen, Senior correspondent for National Journal Group covering military affairs and national security, Cites Lieutenant General David W. Barno, “Why The U.S. Won’t Act on Syria,” May 13th 2011, http://www.cnas.org/node/6357]

But Western powers are doing little to bring the violence to an end.

AND

and the West’s refusal to try to stop it  portends dark days ahead for the battered country. In a recent interview with The New York Times, Rami Makhlouf, an Assad relative who is also the country’s leading businessman, warned the protesters that the regime wouldn’t give up its power peacefully. “We will sit here. We call it a fight until the end,” Makhlouf told the newspaper. “'They should know when we suffer, we will not suffer alone.”

1NC Iran Advantage

1. Assad will not fail and even if he does that won’t wreck Iran’s influence – Middle East pundits have always been wrong – Star this card

Leverett & Leverett, MidEast Director @ National Security Council, 9-1

[Flynt Leverett, Senior Research Fellow at the New America Foundation, Former Senior Director for Middle East Affairs at the National Security Council, Middle East Expert on the Secretary of State's Policy Planning Staff, and Senior Analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency, Ph.D. in politics from Princeton, Hillary Mann Leverett, Senior Lecturer & Fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute for Global Affairs, J.D. from Harvard Law, “Iran and Syria: America's Middle East pundits get it wrong (again),” September 1st 2011, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/01/iran-and-syria-americas-middle-east-pundits-get-it-wrong-again/]

For over 30 years, America’s Iran “

AND

regional balance and come to terms with it.

2. They’re wrong – the Syrians really don’t want American interference

Larison, 11 - doctoral candidate in Byzantine history at the University of Chicago (Daniel, 8/2/2011, Daniel, “What Is Happening to the “Arab Spring”?” http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2011/08/02/what-is-happening-to-the-arab-spring/, JMP)

As for Iran, the protests in 2009

AND

has so far been no sign of him.

3. The US will inevitably remain the hegemon

Brooks and Wohlforth 9 (Stephen G. Brooks, Prof. of Government at Dartmouth, William C. Wohlforth, Professor of Government and Chair of the Department of Government at Dartmouth, March/April, “Reshaping the World Order”, EBSCO)

Only a few years ago, pundits were

AND

and the same is true of most terrorists.

4. There’s no correlation between hegemony and stability

Fettweis, ’10

[Christopher J. Fettweis, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Tulane University, “Threat and Anxiety in US Foreign Policy,” Survival, 52:2, 59-82, March 25th 2010, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00396331003764603]

One potential explanation for the growth of global

AND

world peace and US military expenditure are unrelated.

5. American credibility is in terminal decline – can’t influence other nations

Clemons, Director @ New America Foundation, 8-12

[Steve Clemons, Director of the American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation where he previously served as Executive Vice President, and the former director of the Japan Policy Research Institute, Washington editor at large for The Atlantic and editor in chief of Atlantic, “America Next: End of the World As We Knew It,” August 12th 2011, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/08/america-next-end-of-the-world-as-we-knew-it/243503/]

When the Berlin Wall fell in the summer of 1989, most of the world saw it as a crack so deep and fundamental in the superstructure of the Soviet Union that doubts about the USSR's solvency as a global power abounded. In nature, when a piece of ice larger than Rhode Island breaks off of Antarctica, one sees tangibly the very different world that global warming is shaping.

AND

Power, like an equity in the stock markets, is ultimately a function of future expectations  and today the reality is that America's stock has fallen dramatically and will only rise again with visionary statecraft revolutionary, new global deal-making that might restore the impression that America once again matters.

2NC No Assad Fall XT

Assad won’t fall – your authors use evidence of questionable reliability

Husain, Fellow at CFR, 8-23

[Ed Husain, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, “Why Assad need not fear Gaddafi’s fate,” August 23rd 2011, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/73d4c680-ccb7-11e0-b923-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss#axzz1Vo3wd8tK]

After months of holding his nerve, US

AND

with the US largely working behind the scenes.

Assad won’t fall – military won’t defect and they’re Syria’s only hope

Fisher, Editor @ The Atlantic, ’11

[Max Fisher, Associate editor at The Atlantic, Is Syria Hopeless?,” June 13th 2011, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/06/is-syria-hopeless/240364/]

The international community is poorly equipped to help.

AND

But a kind of mass humanitarian awakening among the security forces, as unlikely as it may be and as absurd as it may sound, could well be Syria's only hope.

The Syrian people are fighting against all odds – multiple warrants

Saab, Former Brookings Analyst, ’11

[Bilal Y. Saab, Visiting fellow at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, Former Research Analyst and the Coordinator of the Internship Program at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, Ph.D. candidate at the Government and Politics Department at the University of Maryland, College Park,  “Long road to freedom: Seven reasons why Syrian protesters have so far failed to topple Assad,” June 10th 2011, http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2011/0610/Long-road-to-freedom-Seven-reasons-why-Syrian-protesters-have-so-far-failed-to-topple-Assad/Weakness-and-divisions-in-ranks]

Weakness and divisions in ranks: The Syrian

AND

politics and security of the entire Middle East.

2NC A2 Economy/Generic

Economic decline will be blamed on the West

Harling, Director at the International Crisis Group, 11

[Peter Harling, Iraq-Syria-Lebanon project director with the International Crisis Group, “How not to prolong the Syrian agony,” August 30th 2011, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/30/how_not_to_prolong_the_syrian_agony]

The only support the regime retains

AND

The regime will pin economic woes on an international conspiracy. Wesstern countries will find it hard to resist such sanctions, if only given the lack of alternative sources of pressure.

Business leaders still wouldn’t defect – they disagree with the opposition’s socialist ideology

Landis, Professor of Middle East Studies @ Oklahoma, ’11

[Joshua Landis, Director of the Center for Middle East Studies and associate professor at the University of Oklahoma, “Syrians must win the revolution on their own,” August 9th 2011, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/09/syrians_must_win_the_revolution_on_their_own?wpisrc=obinsite]

Syrian businessmen are a conservative and self-

AND

years, according to a number of analysts.

A2 Turkish Intervention

No Turkish intervention – no hard power use

Yilmaz & Ustun, 10-7

[Nuh Yilmaz and Kadir Ustun, Writers for Al Jazeera, “Critics say Turkey's Syria policy doesn't work because Assad is not reforming - but the critics are wrong.” October 7th 2011, http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/09/201192914823163510.html]

Turkey's neighbourhood policy was based on the vision of a "peaceful and stable" region, and Turkey has used its influence to push for substantial reforms responding to the legitimate demands of the Syrian people. In line with its long-standing preference for non-intervention and gradual, indigenous, true reform processes, Turkey has consciously resisted the idea of using its hard power to bring about change in Syria. Turkey has already declared that it "ran out of patience" with the Assad regime after trying virtually every avenue short of sanctions and military intervention. Military choice is not really a choice in Syria, and Turkey recognises this.

Military use will only be used to block migration

Hurriyet Daily News, 10-7

[Hurriyet Daily News, “Is there a military intervention in Syria?,” October 7th 2011, http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=is-there-a-military-intervention-in-syria-2011-10-07]

Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu was my guest on

AND

measures are more toward obstructing this possible immigration.

2NC No Heg Impact XT

Warfare databases disproves their impact

Geller & Singer, ’99

[*Chair of the Department of Political Science @ Wayne State University (Daniel S and Joel David, Nations at war: a scientific study of international conflict, p. 116-117)]

Hopf (1991) and Levy (1984)

AND

he reports that the frequency, magnitude and severity of war in the international system is unrelated to the number of major powers in the system.

More evidence

Friedman 10—research fellow in defense and homeland security, Cato. PhD candidate in pol sci, MIT (Ben, Military Restraint and Defense Savings, 20 July 2010, http://www.cato.org/testimony/ct-bf-07202010.html, AMiles)

Another argument for high military spending is that

AND

into wars, while providing no obvious benefit.

2NC Cred XT

Cred is irreparable in the Middle East

Duss, 11 - Policy Analyst and Director of Middle East Progress (Matt, 7/21/2011, “Arab Opinions Of U.S. Unchanged By Speeches,” http://middleeastprogress.org/2011/07/arab-opinions-of-us-unchanged-by-speeches/, JMP)

A new Zogby International poll of Arab opinions

AND

this on the debate over Tunisia’s new constitution.

2NC Soft Power

Obama lacks the will to use soft power

Mark P. Lagon - Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau of International Organization Affairs – 10/18/11, Soft Power Under Obama, World Affairs, http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/ISN-Insights/Detail?lng=en&id=133416&contextid734=133416&contextid735=133415&tabid=133415&dynrel=4888caa0-b3db-1461-98b9-e20e7b9c13d4,0c54e3b3-1e9c-be1e-2c24-a6a8c7060233

One irony of the Obama presidency is how

AND

the United States, something is seriously amiss.

 Should denotes an expectation of enacting a plan
American Heritage Dictionary 2000 (Dictionary.com)
should. The will to do something or
AND
shall go out if I feel like it.

Resolved implies a policy
Louisiana House 3-8-2005, http://house.louisiana.gov/house-glossary.htm
Resolution  A legislative instrument that generally is used
AND
6.8 , and 7.4) 

Democracy assistance is the transfer of funds, expertise, or material to foster democracy
Richard Lappin- Ph.D. candidate at the Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies @ U of Leuven- 2009 (last cite), What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation, http://www.cejiss.org/sites/default/files/8.pdf
Democracy assistance can be most accurately defined as
AND
society groups, media groups and political parties.

And, predictability is the internal link to solving the aff – Debate has unique potential to change attitudes and grow critical thinking skills because it forces pre-round internal deliberation on a of a focused, common ground of debate
Robert E. Goodin and Simon J. Niemeyer- Australian National University- 2003, When Does Deliberation Begin? Internal Reflection versus Public Discussion in Deliberative Democracy, POLITICAL STUDIES: 2003 VOL 51, 627–649, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.0032-3217.2003.00450.x/pdf
What happened in this particular case, as
AND
doing that for each of those key features.

And, Limits are an inevitable part of living in society, but learning to exercise creativity within limits celebrates life- constant attempts to un-limit ourselves create an unbearable burden and empties out the value to life
Ramaekers 2001
Stefan, Teaching to lie and obey: Nietzsche and Education, Journal of Philosophy of Education 35.2
The nature …
 Nietzsche's writings.

A focus on policy is necessary to learn the pragmatic details of powerful institutions – acting without this knowledge is doomed to fail in the face of policy pros who know what they’re talking about
McClean, Adjunct Professor of Philosophy at Molloy College in New York, ‘1 (David E., “The Cultural Left and the Limits of Social Hope”, Conference of the Society for the Advancement of American Philosophy, http://www.americanphilosophy.org/archives/past_conference_programs/pc2001/)
Or we might take Foucault who, at
AND
for the so-called "managerial class."  

Policy education solves the case better - Tying scholarly research to policy practice is necessary to combat the problematic viewpoints currently endemic to practices of democracy assistance
Carothers, Vice President for Studies at Carnegie, 10
(October, Vice President for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “The Research Imperatives of Democracy Promotion,” American Political Science Association – Comparative Democracy, Vol. 8, No. 3)
Us and them: Another problematic pattern of
AND
and policy practice not just advisable but imperative.

They have functionally decided to write their own resolution instead of affirming the one we already have- even if the resolution is wrong, having a devil’s advocate in deliberation is vitally important to critical thinking skills and avoiding groupthink
Hugo Mercier and Hélène Landemore- 2011 (in press)
(Philosophy, Politics and Economics prof @ U of Penn, Poli Sci prof @ Yale), Reasoning is for arguing: Understanding the successes and failures of deliberation, Political Psychology, http://sites.google.com/site/hugomercier/publications
Reasoning can function outside of its normal conditions when it is used purely internally. But it is not enough for reasoning to be done in public to achieve good results….
Alternatively, a devil’s advocate could be introduced in the group to defend an alternative opinion (e.g. Schweiger, Sandberg, & Ragan, 1986).

2NC FW

A2: Butler

Critique can only overcome power and produce change when articulated in the language of hegemony
Kapoor, 2008 (Ilan, Associate Professor at the Faculty of Environmental Studies, York University, “The Postcolonial Politics of Development,” p. 138-139)
There are perhaps several other social movement campaigns
AND
state to quash them or deflect their claims.

A2: Serial Failure- Devil’s Advocate Solves 

Group deliberations solve serial failure- but only when genuine debate can be had on two sides of an issue- your FW only allows people who have already agreed (_) is bad
Hugo Mercier and Hélène Landemore- 2011 (in press)
(Philosophy, Politics and Economics prof @ U of Penn, Poli Sci prof @  Yale), Reasoning is for arguing: Understanding the successes and failures of deliberation, Political Psychology, http://sites.google.com/site/hugomercier/publications
Theoreticians of ….
our account. 

A2 Fairness

Only formal, pre-agreed rules can ensure openness and equal access—throwing away limits doesn’t mean debate becomes more egalitarian; it means those with the most power dominate the discussion- turns the aff
Mari Boor Tonn, Associate Professor of Communication at the University of Maryland, College Park, 05
“Taking Conversation, Dialogue, and Therapy Public ,” Rhetoric & Public Affairs 8.3 (2005) 405-430
Second, democratic … rights."35

Predictability 2NC

Without this pre-round consideration, debates have nowhere to begin- destroys the valuable process of thinking though another’s arguments
Robert E. Goodin and Simon J. Niemeyer- Australian National University- 2003, When Does Deliberation Begin? Internal Reflection versus Public Discussion in Deliberative Democracy, POLITICAL STUDIES: 2003 VOL 51, 627–649, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.0032-3217.2003.00450.x/pdf
Certainly, ‘consideration’ necessarily comes temporally prior
AND
formal group deliberations of the more discursive sort.

Limits 2NC

B. Limits are essential for equitable relations in society– They assume that limits are some infinite capacity to do whatever you want- this radical liberalism turns into the domination of the weak by the strong and is the same logic as Bush exceptionalism and Tea Partiers- freedom should be bounded by the limits of responsibility within a community
Anthony Burke- School of Politics and International Relations, The University of New South Wales- 2005, Freedom’s Freedom: American Enlightenment and Permanent War, Social Identities Vol. 11, No. 4, July 2005, pp. 315/343, http://pdfserve.informaworld.com/256400_915549761_727339818.pdf
Freedom can no longer be thought of as
AND
potentially destructive levels of politics and organisational power.

C. The taboo on anything that might be “limiting” creates paralysis –their criticism makes the perfect the enemy of the good.  The best we can do is fashion reasonable a middle ground that fosters discussion.
John O. Beahrs- Department of Psychiatry, Oregon Health Sciences University- Dec., 1992, Paradoxical Effects in Political Systems, Political Psychology, Vol. 13, No. 4 (Dec., 1992), pp. 755-769, jstor
New taboos have emerged that reflect new societal
AND
data must be continually scrutinized toward its clarification.

Limits - A2: Agency / Identity

Humans define their identity through the limits between self and other- their aversion to constraint causes psychological overload  
John O. Beahrs- Department of Psychiatry, Oregon Health Sciences University- Dec., 92, Paradoxical Effects in Political Systems, Political Psychology, Vol. 13, No. 4 (Dec., 1992), pp. 755-769, jstor
The ideal of unlimited expansion is a myth
AND
social identity-formation (Bloom, 1990).

Limits– Dogmatism I/L

Our framework forces debates on both sides of a social issue which stimulates critical thinking and helps students understand the complexities of policy dilemmas – this is critical to check dogmatism
Keller, et. al, 01 – Asst. professor School of Social Service Administration U. of Chicago
(Thomas E., James K., and Tracly K., Asst. professor School of Social Service Administration U. of Chicago, professor of Social Work, and doctoral student School of Social Work, “Student debates in policy courses: promoting policy practice skills and knowledge through active learning,” Journal of Social Work Education, Spr/Summer 2001, EBSCOhost)
John Dewey,
…
issue.

Education 2NC

Only a focus on the practical imperatives of the policy world can effectively reform democracy aid – their turn inward ensures the continued global weakness of the institutions of democracy
Carothers, Vice President for Studies at Carnegie, 10
(October, Vice President for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “The Research Imperatives of Democracy Promotion,” American Political Science Association – Comparative Democracy, Vol. 8, No. 3)
In spite of this there is need and
AND
independence, and a host of other areas.

Groupthink 2NC 

Turns the aff
The best model of communication forces debaters to switch sides – staking out intellectual claims and refusing to suspend our beliefs means we talk past each other and never convince anyone outside our inner circle
Haskell, Professor History Rice, 90
(Professor of History at Rice, “Objectivity is not neutrality: Rhetoric vs. practice in Peter Novick’s That noble dream,” History and Theory 29, no. 2: 129–157)
Detachment functions in this manner not by draining
AND
between them, irrespective of their perceived merits.
2. Confirmation-bias
Groupthink causes systemic policy failures- justifies militarism and conflict escalation to nuclear use
Dr. Reginald Shareef- professor in the Political Science Department at Radford University- 2004, Defeating groupthink, http://www.roanoke.com/columnists/shareef/wb/8886
The 9/11 Commission found that "
AND
norm- - albeit with a fancier name.

And, refusal to voice alternative viewpoints causes the kind of groupthink that justifies genocide
LINDA M. WOOLF and MICHAEL R. HULSIZER- Psychology profs, Webster University- 05, Psychosocial roots of genocide: risk, prevention, and intervention, Journal of Genocide Research (2005), 7(1), http://webster.edu/~woolflm/WoolfHulsizerJGR05.pdfMarch, 101–128
In addition, very cohesive groups, like
AND
an agenda of ethnic cleansing—including genocide.

1NC Hegemony

Failing to prevent a horrible outcome is just as bad as causing it – the aff is moral evasion
Nielsen – philosophy prof, Calgary - 93
Kai Nielsen, Professor of Philosophy, University of Calgary, Absolutism and Its Consequentialist Critics, ed. Joram Graf Haber, 1993, p. 170-2
Forget the … make it right.

Criticism of imperialism causes U.S. withdrawal which sparks arms races and nuclear conflict
Rosen ‘3
(Stephen Peter-, Spring, The National Interest, “An Empire, If you Can Keep It”, Lexis)
The other …
more attractive.

War short-circuits the transition to new forms of politics
Linklater ‘89
(Andrew-, Beyond Realism and Marxism, P. 32; Jacob)
These …
 community.

Percpetion of weakness causes enemies to miscalc- they’ll be overly aggressive and the U.S. will crackdown harder than it would otherwise
Heisbourg ‘00
(Francois-, Chairmen of the Geneva Center for Security Policy, fmr. Director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies Winter (99-00), Survival, “American Hegemony? Perceptions of the US Abroad”, Vol. 41 #4; Jacob)
The last perception …
score.

Hege inev- if the U.S. disarms another nation will fill the vacuum.
Kristol and Kagan ‘00
(Robert-, Sr. assoc. @ the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, William-, Chairman of the Project for the New American century, editor and publisher of the Weekly Standard, Present Dangers, P. 12)
It is worth pointing …
 into action

Focus on security through deterrence is inherently reflexive- learning to understand our enemies helps us broaden our world view
Lupovici 8 – Post-Doctoral Fellow Munk Centre for International Studies University of Toronto (Amir, “Why the Cold War Practices of Deterrence are Still Prevalent: Physical Security, Ontological Security and Strategic Discourse,”  http://www.cpsa-acsp.ca/papers-2008/Lupovici.pdf
 Since …
 avoiding violence.

No root cause to war and dealing with security is the best way to address other injustices
Goldstein, Int’l Rel Prof @ American U, in ‘1 (Joshua, , 2001, War and Gender, p. 412)
First, peace activists face a dilemma in
AND
of war seems to be empirically inadequate."'

The modern west is the least violent place and time in history—prefer our comparative studies to their knee-jerk lefitism.  Their critique of modernity is back-asswards.
Steven Pinker, Pyschology—Harvard, 2007
(“A History of Violence,” http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/pinker07/pinker07_index.html)
At one time, these facts were widely
AND
mass killing of civilians decreased by 90 percent.

1NC Neolib

Don’t buy their bumper-sticker economics – neoliberal globalization is solving poverty
Johan Norberg, et. Al. 2003, “In Defense of Global Capitalism”, Cato Institute.
The world is said to have become increasingly
AND
exists concerning the state of the world.2 

Neoliberalism can have a multitude of different outcomes – there’s no causal link between neoliberal policy and poverty
James Ferguson, professor of cultural and social anthropology at Stanford University, 2007, “Formalities of Poverty: Thinking about Social Assistance in Neoliberal South Africa”. http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/african_studies_review/v050/50.2ferguson.html#bio
The word neoliberal has become something of a
AND
can see the work that they are doing.

No mindless intervention
Mandelbaum 11 (Michael Mandelbaum, A. Herter Professor of American Foreign Policy, the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, Washington DC; and Director, Project on East-West Relations, Council on Foreign Relations, “CFR 90th Anniversary Series on Renewing America: American Power and Profligacy,” Jan 2011)
MANDELBAUM:  I think it is, Richard
AND
And that unit has come to an end.

We solve the impacts to their turns by increasing the cost of war
Griswold, Associate Director of the Center for Trade Policy Studies at the CATO Institute, ‘98 (Daniel, December 31, “Peace On Earth, Free Trade For Men,” CATO Institute Daily, http://www.cato.org/dailys/12-31-98.html)
Advocates of free trade have long argued that
AND
When goods cannot cross borders, armies will." 

Globalization’s expansion of trade checks war, civil violence, and genocide
Weede, Professor of Sociology at the University of Bonn, ‘4 (Erich, September 22, ‘The Diffusion of Prosperity and Peace by Globalization” Independent Review, Vol 9 No 2, p 165)
Earlier I referred to the wider concept of
AND
less civil war, and less interstate war.

Neg:Cal BP

Round #3  Tournament:

Vs Team: K State MR

Judge:

Off Case Args:

EU cp

Soft power net benefit (warming)

China Bashing

Boehner DA

Coerion

T increase

Case Args:

Egypt says no

Indo-Pak War inevitable

Block Strategy:

2NC: ptx

Case

INR: EU cp

2nr Strategy:

EU CP 

Neg:Cal BP

Round #1  Tournament:Shirley

Vs Team: Haward DT

Judge: Nate cohn

Off Case Args:

Payroll tax politics

Saudi DA

Pressure CP

Case Args:

No solvency: Saudi rollback, no shia coup, no gov coup; on Iran impact/no miscalc, no chance of reform

Fifth fleet not key; plan = increase shia influence

No impact to heg

Navy

Block Strategy:

Case

Politics

Saudi DA

2nr Strategy:

Saudi

Case 

Neg: Cal/ Berkeley BP

Round #  1 Tournament: Shirley

Vs Team: Harvard DT

Judge: Nate Cohn

Off Case Args:

Pressure CP

Saudi DA

Politics: payroll cuts- econ impact

Case Args:

Saudi spoiler

Navy flexibility

Block Strategy:

2NC: Trick, Saudi independent foreign policy means they  move to china

Us-China relations + co-opt impact

1NR: Politics

2nr Strategy:

Just case with China Turn

Concede econ decline inevitable because of EU

Extend Econ turns case 

Payroll will pass now – Obama’s polcap is key

Lee, 11/10 (Carol E., WSJ, “White House to Push to Extend Payroll Tax Cut,” http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2011/11/10/white-house-to-push-to-extend-payroll-tax-cut/)

The White House is gearing up to make

AND

cut extension without finding ways to offset the cost

State department and USAID conflict mediation drains capital and spurs congressional backlash

Zenko & Friedman, 11 --- fellow and

AND

-zenko-fgn-aid-20110216)

The State Department and USAID have an unparalleled

AND

S. global influence. That's no bargain.

Failure to extend the tax cut will jack the economy

Temple-West, 10/6 (Patrick, 10/6/2011, Reuters News, “Payroll tax cut needed to avoid recession: Zandi,” Factiva)

(Reuters) - Failure to extend a

AND

need to act soon," Casey told Reuters.

U.S key to global economy

UK Economy News 10/16 (“What would happen if the US economy collapsed?”

http://financialadvice.co.uk/news/ukeconomy/90260-what-would-happen-if-the-us-economy-collapsed.html)

The simple fact is that … effects in international markets, both investment and trade.

Broad statistical models prove – unmanaged economic declines lead to global conflict

Royal, Director of cooperative threat reduction, ‘10 [Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction – U.S. Department of Defense, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises”, Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, Ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215]

Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline

AND

economic-security debate and deserves more attention. 

U.S. backing off push for democracy to preserve relations with Saudi Arabia

Lobe, 10/20 (Jim, 10/20/2011, Inter Press Service, “WEAPONS: RIGHTS GROUPS PRAISE U.S. HOLD ON BAHRAIN ARMS SALE,” Factiva)

0The pending arms deal has caused some embarrassment

AND

strengthen Iran's influence and position in the Gulf.

The Saudi’s will break off cooperation with the US and undermine the aff

Nasr, Professor of International Politics at Tufts, 11

(5/23, Will the Saudis Kill the Arab Spring?, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-23/will-the-saudis-kill-the-arab-spring-.html)

The kingdom has emerged as the leader of

AND

and Morocco, which qualify on neither count.

This conflict will be far more severe nature than previous disputes – it will be fatal for the alliance

ICG 11

(7/28/2011, International Crisis Group, “POPULAR PROTEST IN NORTH AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST (VIII): BAHRAIN’S ROCKY ROAD TO REFORM,” http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iran%20Gulf/Bahrain/111%20Popular%20Protest%20in%20North%20Africa%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20VII%20%20Bahrains%20Rocky%20Road%20to%20Reform.pdf)

V. THE U.S. ROLE

AND

Libya and Syria, but not in Bahrain.

Saudi cooperation key to Pakistani stability, fighting terrorism, and containing Iran

Levine, Contributing editor at Foreign Policy, 11

(Jan/Feb, Frenemies Forever, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/01/02/opening_gambit_frenemies_forever?page=0,0)

The verdict: Guilty. But so what…. keeping Pakistan stable. Only Saudi Arabia, with its carefully cultivated, behind-the-scenes links to countries and leaders who do not trust Washington, can play this role.

Pakistan collapse causes global nuclear conflict – draws in China, India and Russia

Pitt, Managing Editor of truthout.org, 9

“Unstable Pakistan Threatens the World,” NYT and internationally bestselling author www.arabamericannews.com/news/index.php?mod=article&cat=commentary&article=2183)

But a suicide bomber in Pakistan rammed a

AND

world on a collision course with unimaginable disaster.

Text: The United States federal government should notify the government of Bahrain it will terminate its status as a Major non-NATO ally if it does not engage in a genuinely inclusive dialogue with the opposition leaders and the groups they represent.

The counterplan moderates Bahrain, solves leadership, prevents kick-out and avoids politics

Dietz, 11 (4/21/2011, David, “SHOULD THE US RECONSIDER ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH BAHRAIN?” http://www.transterramedia.com/should-us-reconsider-its-relationship-bahrain?page=0,3)

Nevertheless America must exert pressure on Bahrain to

AND

island is in for more unrest and violence.

1NC Navy Adv

1. Can’t solve --- opposition groups are demanding a constitutional monarchy

Reuters, 10/13 (“Bahrain: Opposition Demands Switch to Constitutional Monarchy,” 10/13/2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/14/world/middleeast/bahrain-opposition-demands-switch-to-constitutional-monarchy.html)

Five opposition parties have jointly denounced the Sunni

AND

as a power grab by the Shiite majority.

2. Small-scale reforms won’t be sufficient --- opposition leaders demanding more

CBS News, 10/10 (“Bahrain begins reform steps snubbed by opposition,” 10/10/2011, http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/10/10/ap/middleeast/main20118012.shtml)

(AP)  MANAMA, Bahrain — Officials

AND

whether to have an elected government or not?"

3. Ruling regime and GCC won’t make concessions

ICG, 11 (7/28/2011, International Crisis Group, “POPULAR PROTEST IN NORTH AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST (VIII): BAHRAIN’S ROCKY ROAD TO REFORM,” http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iran%20Gulf/Bahrain/111%20Popular%20Protest%20in%20North%20Africa%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20VII%20%20Bahrains%20Rocky%20Road%20to%20Reform.pdf, JMP)

That said, there is reason to doubt

AND

remaining fiercely loyal to the Al Khalifas.143

4. U.S. mediation empirically fails --- Bahrain’s government is too focused on political survival

Northam, 11 (5/22/2011, Jackie, “Bahrain Crackdown Puts Pressure On U.S. Diplomacy” http://www.npr.org/2011/05/22/136507091/bahrain-crackdown-puts-pressure-on-u-s-diplomacy)

The U.S. must also take

AND

they're going to respond to," he says.

5. Saudi Arabia will wreck the aff --- it holds the cards

ICG, 11 (4/6/2011, International Crisis Group, “POPULAR PROTESTS IN NORTH AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST (III):THE BAHRAIN REVOLT Middle East/North Africa Report N°105 – 6 April 2011,” http://www.scribd.com/doc/54686431/The-Bahrain-Revolt-via-Int-l-Crisis-Group, JMP)

The second, arguably more formidable impediment comes

AND

of height-ened regional instability and competition.

6. Naval agreement runs through 2016 --- won’t have to be renegotiated in the middle of the unrest

Fifield, 9/2 (Anna, 9/2/2011, Financial Times, “US and Bahrain secretly extended defence pact,” Factiva, JMP)

Accord on naval base runs to 2016:

AND

mostly Shia protesters after unrest began in February.

7. U.S. won’t remove the Fifth Fleet --- their evidence is just a sound bite from Navy officials

UPI, 7/22 (“U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet to stay put,” 7/22/2011, http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2011/07/22/US-Navys-5th-Fleet-to-stay-put/UPI-72621311348915/, JMP)

WASHINGTON, July 22 (UPI) --

AND

session in early July to address political concerns.

8. No way countries like Korea or Japan would make us leave because we were kicked out of Bahrain – no logical internal link. And the presence in these other countries also ensure both regional and global deterrence.

9. Even a sudden Bahrain kickout isn’t bad --- will force the U.S. to adopt a new force posture

Koplovsky, 6 (10/23/2006, Michael, A paper submitted to the Faculty of the Naval War College in partial satisfaction of the requirements of the Department of Joint Military Operations, PRECIPITATING THE INEVITABLE: THE SURPRINGLY BENIGN IMPACT OF LOSING BASING RIGHTS IN BAHRAIN, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA463412&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf, JMP)

In an era of shrinking budgets and moves

AND

headquarters), could be a blessing in disguise.

10. No risk of their impacts --- viable alternatives options solve and the harms of staying are greater than the risks of leaving

Koplovsky, 6 (10/23/2006, Michael, A paper submitted to the Faculty of the Naval War College in partial satisfaction of the requirements of the Department of Joint Military Operations, PRECIPITATING THE INEVITABLE: THE SURPRINGLY BENIGN IMPACT OF LOSING BASING RIGHTS IN BAHRAIN, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA463412&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf, JMP)

CONCLUSION: Despite adamant arguments outlining the essential

AND

forces’ vulnerability to attack is another important concern.

No impact to loss of credibility

Fettweis, ’10

[Christopher J. Fettweis, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Tulane University, “Threat and Anxiety in US Foreign Policy,” Survival, 52:2, 59-82, March 25th 2010, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00396331003764603]

The credibility imperative is a clear example,

AND

how small the issue or large the odds.

Naval powers resilient

Farley, 07 (Robert, assistant professor at the Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce, University of Kentucky. 10-23-07. “The False Decline of the U.S. Navy” http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=the_false_decline_of_the_us_navy)

The United States Navy currently operates eleven aircraft

AND

littorals for at least the next fifty years.

1NC Stability Adv

1. No risk of Iranian aggression or miscalc over Bahrain – they have remained militarily passive

Savyon, 11 --- director of the Iranian Media Project @ Middle East Media Research Institute (A, 7/4/2011, “Iran's Defeat in the Bahrain Crisis: A Seminal Event in the Sunni-Shi'ite Conflict”. http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/5424.htm#_ednref6)

Tehran's Weakness and Passivity in the Face of the Saudi "Invasion of Bahrain"

"The invasion of Bahrain," as Iranian

AND

noted that none of these calls were implemented.

2. Iran won’t act now because of high military costs but a U.S. rift with the Saudis will create a regional opening for Iran

White, 11 --- editor of Money Game and Europe for Business Insider and MA in Journalism from Colombia (3/16/2011, Gregory, “What's Really Happening In Bahrain And Why It Matters,” http://www.businessinsider.com/whats-happening-in-bahrain-2011-3)

What's next: It appears Saudi Arabia and

AND

a potential opening for Iran in the region.

3. The aff makes Bahrain ally with Tehran

Sobhani, 11 --- President of Caspian Energy Consulting (3/3/2011, S. Rob, Ph.D., “Bahrain: Standing by an ally,” http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/147337-bahrain-standing-by-an-ally, JMP)

An Islamic Republic of Bahrain allied with Tehran’s

AND

referred to Bahrain as part of Iran’s territory.

4. Iran won’t escalate the war

Spinner, 11 (3/15/2011, Jackie, CSM, “Why Bahrain is unlikely to turn into an Iran-Saudi battleground; The intervention of Saudi forces has escalated tensions between Bahrain's protesters and the country's Sunni rulers, leaving at least one dead and drawing criticism from Iran,” http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/0315/Why-Bahrain-is-unlikely-to-turn-into-an-Iran-Saudi-battleground)

The intervention of Gulf forces to help put

AND

because of the Saudi support for Bahrain's monarchy.”

5. No escalation --- to many difficulties for Iran and it is not in the Saudis interests

Stratfor, 11 (4/20/2011, Stratfor Intelligence Report, “Saudi Arabia's Iran Conundrum,” www.realclearworld.com/articles/2011/04/20/saudi_arabias_iran_conundrum_99487.html)

So, why is the Persian Shiite state

AND

, which Iran can use to its advantage.

2NC CP

Aff can’t solve

Darling, 2AC Card, 11 - an

AND

,” 2/22, The Faster Times,

http://www.thefastertimes.com/

AND

-u-s-bahrain-relationship/

As in the case of Egypt, the

AND

; the latter is realpolitik in crude form.

With Bahrain and the rest of the Gulf

AND

inception expect realpolitik to win out in Washington.

The reason for this is practical and simple

AND

Security Assistance Force (ISAF) peacekeeping mission.

Bahraini support for U.S. regional

AND

1.4 billion worth of military hardware.

The upshot of this support for Washington is

AND

U.S. resolve in the process.

Small as it is Bahrain remains a crucial

AND

for another jump of 8 percent in 2012.

Yet Washington is left walking a tightrope.

AND

itself from those nations allied to its interests.

2NC Saudi DA

[A2 Relations Low] This supercharges our Saudi Rollback arguments on case – this is a reason why Saudi Arabia would be suspicious of any US action and, rollback any reforms in Bahrain

This proves our solvency argument --- it proves why Riyadh will become more assertive, even at the expense of U.S. interests

Blanche, 11 (Aug/Sept 2011

AND

Kings,” Issue 425, Academic Search Premier)

US President Barack Obama's decision to cut Mubarak

AND

policy, at times conflicting with American interests."

[A2 Relations Resilient] Bahrain reform is fundamentally different – they view Bahrain as the one place the Shi’a can’t rise

Boucek, 9/21 --- associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace focusing on the Middle East (9/21/2011, Chris, “Iran vs. Saudi Arabia,” http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/21/iran-vs-saudi-arabia/)

Where are the proxy battlefields in the rivalry

AND

in the region in zero-sum terms.

Saudis will crackdown on protestors

Jamjoom, ’11

[Mohammed Jamjoom, CNN Correspondent, “Saudi security forces to crack down on any unlawful protesters,” March 5th 2011, http://articles.cnn.com/2011-03-05/world/saudi.arabia.protest_1_protesters-saudi-security-forces-riyadh?_s=PM:WORLD]

Coming off two days of …. call for them because they're against Sharia law and Saudi values and traditions.

Crackdown prevents the escalation of demonstrations

AFP, 10-27

[Associated France Press “Prince Nayef: Saudi Arabia's iron fist against Al-Qaeda,” October 27th 2011, http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hyVj4eSAJtOfVfzMRpYGcmMkqJLQ?docId=CNG.0af8f11acd1989af42a50ede5cf89585.a61]

Nayef was credited for the successful crackdown on

AND

local population against the Sunni-led monarchy.

2NC Navy Adv – Hardliners XT

More evidence hardliners won’t make concessions to Crown Prince

Jones, assistant professor of history at Rutgers University, 11 (6/10/2011, Toby C., The Atlantic, “Time to Disband the Bahrain-Based U.S. Fifth Fleet,” http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/06/time-to-disband-the-bahrain-basedusfifth-fleet/240243/, JMP)

After months of popular protests against the regime

AND

enduring hostility and the potential for perennial violence.

The King will block any reform

Ghezali 9/13 (Rabah; member of the Transatlantic Network; “Bahrain at the heart of Middle East tensions”; http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/13/bahrain-at-the-heart-of-middle-east-tensions/)

Inside the regime, the gap has widened

AND

removal of the Prime Minister are red lines.

Reform won’t be genuine- empirically proven

Andoni 8/30 (Lamis; Middle East consultant for Al Jazeera; “Bahrain’s contribution to the Arab Spring”; http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/08/20118301473301296.html)

In 1994 an uprising, led mainly,

AND

in a national referendum held in February 2001.

2NC Navy Adv – Mediation Fails XT

U.S. diplomacy won’t solve --- ruling party empirically backlashes against U.S. mediation efforts

Hokayem, 10/19 (Emile, “U.S. Has Few Options to Curb Crackdown in Bahrain,” 10/19/2011, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/10/us-has-few-options-to-curb-crackdown-in-bahrain/246942/)

With the international attention elsewhere and unserious attempts

AND

here," member of Parliament Ali Ahmed said.

2NC Navy Adv – Saudi Spoiler XT 1/2

This turns leadership --- Saudi Arabia will preempt the plan and undercut our hegemony

Shaikh, Director of the Brookings Institution's Doha Center and Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, 11 (3/23/2011, Salman, “The Bahrain crisis and its regional dangers,” http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/03/23/the_bahrain_crisis_and_its_regional_dangers)

The Bahrain crisis is also showing the limits

AND

civil war and avert a greater regional fallout.

Turns the rest of the case too ---- forces Saudi Arabia to pursue an independent foreign policy that rallies Sunni Nations against the Iranian threat – specifically draws in Pakistan

Dorsey, 11 --- senior researcher at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute (5/29/2011, James M., “US-Saudi differences over Iran widen emerging gulf between longtime allies,” http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/05/29/150954.html)

Relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia

AND

indication that is proving to be mission impossible.

Sparks a full blown Sunni-Shia war --- turning the case

Hannah, Senior Fellow at Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 11

(4/22, Bandar's return, http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/04/22/bandars_return)

Bandar's formidable skills in the service of a

AND

consequences of well-financed takfirists run amok.

And, Independent Saudi foreign policy pushes them to China

Levinson, Junior Fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council, 11

(Spring/Summer, Staying the Course, http://www.securityaffairs.org/issues/2011/20/levinson.php)

Kinzer erroneously argues that the “greatest service that Americans could render to the cause of reform in Saudi Arabia would be to loosen … America’s best bet isn’t to “reset” its regional alliances, but to double down on its investment in those partnerships that can best promote its regional interests.

Makes miscalc and conflict between China and the US inevitable

Salameh, International oil economist and consultant to the World Bank, 10

(Technical expert of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), Director of the Oil Market Consultancy Service, member of both the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) and the Royal Institute of International Affairs, “China’s Global Oil Diplomacy: Benign or Hostile?”)

Saudi Arabia, holder of the world’s largest

AND

and even global peace depend on the answers.

Extinction

China Daily 8

(“U.S.-China relations at the world's fingertips,” 4-20-2008, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2008-04/20/content_6629700.htm, )

To frame the importance of this discussion and

AND

.S. and China," Rittenberg said.

Independently, conflict turns all the scenarios in their Kagan evidence

Straits Times 2K

[“Regional Fallout: No one gains in war over Taiwan,” Jun 24th 2000]

THE high-intensity scenario postulates …. cannot be ruled out entirely, for China puts sovereignty above everything else.

And, any U.S. involvement is sufficient to trigger a Saudi counter response

AMEC, November 11 (Afro-Middle East Centre, 10/11/2011, “Bahrain: Democracy on the wrong side of global interests,” http://amec.org.za/articles-presentations/the-gulf/254-bahrain-democracy-on-the-wrong-side-of-global-interests)

In what could be perceived as a region

AND

receive the prior approval of its Saudi benefactors.

And, even if the U.S. gets the ruling party on board, Saudi Arabia will still intervene to protect its perceived interests

Al-Tamimi, 11 --- intern for the Middle East Forum, student at Brasenose College, Oxford University (6/19/2011, Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, “Bahrain: Can The U.S. Do Anything?”  MM http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/06/bahrain_can_the_us_do_anything.html)

Were I an advisor to Bahrain's monarchy,

AND

the hands of the Saudis and the GCC.

Saudi Arabia empirically vetoes the plan

Louer, 11 --- Research Fellow at Sciences Po/CERI/CNRS (May 2011, Laurence, “A Failed Uprising in Bahrain,” http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:kfhAVdfdHK4J:www.iss.europa.eu/uploads/media/A_failed_uprising_in_Bahrain.pdf+bahrain+and+constitutional+monarchy+and+united+states&hl=en&gl=us&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESgcB4JiAv0lIZFSpGTQyJLYxTkV3oXG6t1A712wMdm4SXqis5WebFvp9QbrxTLtfD4Z0twULbMQ_QFTpAQV-upiMS64NcxdaCun7lO9DtsO8aDK8KPt6DnJ-cYd5Anjca-0GIlU&sig=AHIEtbS17toGY73ZS66ZqDNXNPVo6EmOGQ&pli=1)

The third reason for the uprising’s failure was

AND

the opposition failed because of the Saudi veto.

Saudi Arabia feels like it has to act --- it fears the plan will send a signal to its own population that it condones the opposition

al-Ahmed & Jacobs, 11 --- Director & Policy Analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs (May 2011, Ali and Joshua, “POLICY BRIEF: The Crisis in Bahrain http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/59873023?access_key=key-1c62rrj008vha0ut6sj9)

Saudi Arabia also supports the al-Khalifa

AND

crushing the revolution at its source in Manama.

And, even if the U.S. gets the ruling party on board, Saudi Arabia will still intervene to protect its perceived interests

Al-Tamimi, 11 --- intern for the Middle East Forum, student at Brasenose College, Oxford University (6/19/2011, Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, “Bahrain: Can The U.S. Do Anything?”  MM http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/06/bahrain_can_the_us_do_anything.html)

Were I an advisor to Bahrain's monarchy,

AND

the hands of the Saudis and the GCC.

The U.S. can’t solve this turn --- lacks leverage and Bahrain is more loyal to the Saudis

McManus, 11 (2/20/2011, Doyle, “Doyle McManus: Rattling the palace windows in the Persian Gulf,” http://articles.latimes.com/2011/feb/20/opinion/la-oe-mcmanus-column-bahrain-20110220)

The United States has less leverage in Bahrain

AND

his great-uncle, the prime minister.

Saudis will intervene no matter what Obama says

McManus, 11 (2/20/2011, Doyle, “Doyle McManus: Rattling the palace windows in the Persian Gulf,” http://articles.latimes.com/2011/feb/20/opinion/la-oe-mcmanus-column-bahrain-20110220)

If the uprising gets out of hand,

AND

which means not rocking the boat too hard.

Saudi Arabia intervened despite Obama’s requests

McManus, 11 (2/20/2011, Doyle, “Doyle McManus: Rattling the palace windows in the Persian Gulf,” http://articles.latimes.com/2011/feb/20/opinion/la-oe-mcmanus-column-bahrain-20110220)

But Bahrain has problems, and in hindsight

AND

the shootings by withdrawing its members from parliament.

2NC Navy Adv – A2 Kickout

Etzioni evidence goes Neg – Other countries will increase cooperation because they’re scared of US commitment

As of the beginning of 2011, these

AND

Japan’s “credibility gap” with the United States

2NC Navy Adv – A2 Heg

There’s no correlation between hegemony and stability

Fettweis, ’10

[Christopher J. Fettweis, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Tulane University, “Threat and Anxiety in US Foreign Policy,” Survival, 52:2, 59-82, March 25th 2010, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00396331003764603]

One potential explanation for the growth of global

AND

world peace and US military expenditure are unrelated.

US military primacy remains unmatched – no challengers

Nye, IR Prof at Harvard, ’10 (Joseph, November/December, “The Future of American Power” Foreign Affairs, Vol 89 No 6, EbscoHost)

Power today is distributed in a pattern that

AND

speak of unipolarity, multipolarity, or hegemony.

In interstate politics, the most important factor

AND

history suggests how policies can affect the outcome.

HEGEMONIC DECLINE? 

It is currently fashionable to compare the United

AND

states grow| or are used more effectively.

The analogy with British decline is misleading.

AND

being surrounded by two oceans and weaker neighbors.

2NC Saudi-Iran Adv

No Iranian escalation --- doesn’t want to provoke a backlash

Barzegar, 11 --- Department of International Relations, Science and Research University, Tehran (4/20/2011, Kayhan, "Iran's Interests and Values and the 'Arab Spring'" http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/20954/irans_interests_and_values_and_the_arab_spring.html)

Iran's policy towards the Shii population in the

AND

legitimizing their continued presence in the Persian Gulf.

1NR Politics

Economic decline increases aggression by Iran and North Korea

Green & Schrage, 9 --- *Associate Prof at Georgetown and Senior Advisor and Japan Chair at the CSIS, AND ** the CSIS Scholl Chair in International Business and a former senior official with the US Trade Representative's Office (3/26/2009, Michael J Green and Steven P Schrage, Asia Times, “It's not just the economy,” www.atimes.com/atimes/Asian_Economy/KC26Dk01.html)

Dangerous states

It is noteworthy that North Korea, Myanmar

AND

great power status as a nuclear weapons state.

The junta in Myanmar has chosen this moment

AND

nervous about sanctions as a tool of policy.

It is possible that the economic downturn will

AND

advance their asymmetrical advantages against the international system.

Economic decline turns Heg

Mason 8 (David, Professor of Political

AND

Century” p.13; Google Books)

The crux of the American problem is economic

AND

home front can suffer both economically and socially.

Obama now has the upper hand --- will use that to force payroll tax cuts passage [-- this answers their “no political capital” evidence]

Youngman, 11/10 (Sam, “White House thinks Obama has regained 'upper hand' with GOP on economy,” 11/10/2011, http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/192973-white-house-thinks-obama-has-regained-upper-hand-with-gop)

President Obama has regained the “upper hand

AND

is a “very dangerous place to be.”

The officials said the White House will ratchet

AND

was a key component of Obama’s jobs package.

Obama will “put an intense focus in

AND

officials are betting heavily Republicans won’t hold up.

One senior administration official said it is “

AND

raised your taxes $1,000.’

The official said he expects the debate over taxes going into the winter to be “fairly dramatic.”

While Obama enjoys better approval ratings than congressional

AND

they approved of Obama’s handling of the economy.

(          ) This will trigger a depression

Isidore, 8/10 (Chris, 8/10/2011, “Recession 2.0 would hurt worse,” http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/10/news/economy/double_dip_recession_economy/index.htm)

And while economists disagree on just how likely

AND

have virtually no policy effort to counteract it.

That will fuel the economic recovery and boost U.S. competitiveness

Di Leo, 11/9 (Luca

AND

-important-to-economic-recovery)

WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- Small businesses are

AND

conference on small business entrepreneurship during the recovery.

"We need to think carefully about how

AND

job opportunities," Bernanke said in prepared remarks.

Bernanke said that small businesses support their local

AND

helping the U.S. compete globally.

"They often offer a level of agility

AND

that larger firms cannot match," Bernanke said.

Bernanke also said that entrepreneurship offered "an

AND

their lives, such as insufficient retirement savings."

Many small businesses are still finding it hard

AND

the third quarter-- especially to small companies.

Bernanke said Nov. 2 that the Fed

AND

them at previous meetings in August and September.

Small companies were more optimistic for the second

AND

with recession and remains below last spring's level.

Small companies' expectations of sales growth and business

AND

weak average seen over the past six months.

"Consumer sentiment remains at very low levels

AND

problem," the NFIB said earlier this week.

Foreign policy successes now --- don’t translate into domestic political strength

CNN Wire, 10/20 (“Will the end of Gadhafi sway U.S. politics?” 10/20/2011, Factiva)

CAMBRIDGE, Massachusetts (CNN) -- With

AND

of his War Room into his domestic Cabinet.