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eNegContention 1: Islamophobia

The upsurge of Anti-Muslim rhetoric threatens to turn the political sphere into an echo chamber of racism, sacrificing any remaining semblance of critical thought on the altar of bipartisanship.

Giroux 11 (Henry A. Giroux, Global TV Network Chair in English and Cultural Studies at McMaster University, formerly Boston University, Miami University, Penn State University, "Breivik's Fundamentalist War on Politics, and Ours," August 3, http://www.truth-out.org/breiviks-fundamentalist-war-politics-and-ours/1312390288)

The tragic slayings in Norway raise anew serious

AND

a noble practice and democracy has a future.

This is apparent in status quo democratization, which attempts to prove Western Superiority over the Middle East by constructing Islam as anti-democratic and inherently threatening

Teti, 7 (Andrea, Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Aberdeen, “Confessions of a Dangerous Paradigm: Democratisation, Transitology and Orientalism”)

The literature presents – or implies – contrasting

AND

[...] regulated for the good of all.”39

Specifically, we “allow” Islamist participation while simultaneously engineering elections against them

Carothers, Director Democracy Carnegie, 11 (Thomas, Feb 24, “How not to promote democracy in Egypt,” http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-

dyn/content/article/2011/02/24/AR2011022406530.html)

As the U.S. government assesses the uprisings across the Middle East and

AND

to use Berman's term, is first to begin building our own credibility. Proceeding on the basis of democratic principles such as openness and inclusion rather than political favoritism and exclusion would be a good way to start.

By attempting to rig the game for Western-style liberal democracy we cede U.S. foreign policy to Islamophobic forces, locking in an adversarial relationship historically responsible for massive violence

Kull, 9-5-’11 (Steven, Director of Program on International Policy Attitudes, “Why Muslims are still mad at America”

http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/05/why-muslims-are-still-mad-at-america/)

On the ten-year anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, many Americans are wondering whether the risk of a terrorist attack

AND

Muslims believe that they are on a different path than the West. This path is central to their notion of their freedom to practice their religion. When they feel that America is threatening their religion and their aspirations, they grow resolutely hostile.

Attempting to preserve stability by cultivating Western-allied regimes is based on a fundamentally racist decision calculus in which the price for Islamophobia is paid in Arab blood

Yezza, 11 (Hicham, February 5, editor-in-chief of Ceasefire, “Real Arab democracy Vs mythical “regional stability”,” http://ceasefiremagazine.co.uk/editorial/freedom-vs-stability/)

However, one of the less charming aspects

AND

political calculations at their expense must end now.

An Islamophobic political discourse is a precondition for violence – the language used to exclude populations from civilization is essential to manufacturing consent for war

Collins and Glover, 2 (John Collins, Ass. Prof. of Global Studies at St. Lawrence, and Ross Glover, Visiting Professor of Sociology at St. Lawrence University, 2002, Collateral Language, p. 6-7, The Real Effects of Language)

As any university student knows, theories about

AND

mental gaze from the physical effects of violence.

Islamophobia constitutes a blatantly racist and ideological worldview which MUST be rejected – the alternative is genocide and extinction

Munjid, 11 (3/27, Achmad, president of the Nahdlatul Ulama community in North America, “Overcoming Islamophobia in the United States,”

http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2011/03/27/overcoming-islamophobia-united-states.html)

Remember, as institutionalized hatred, Islamophobia has

AND

enemy. Everybody knows what the consequences are.

Thus the plan: The United States Federal Government should offer political party support for Egyptian political parties regardless of their religious affiliation.

Contention 2: Solvency

Providing aid to Islamists is critical to reclaim democracy from Islamophobic fundamentalists by shattering the notion that Islam and democracy are incompatible. Prioritizing liberal principles and the revocation of aid are two sides of the same coin – both sanction disciplinary interventions to re-establish the superiority of Western democracy

Teti, 7 (Andrea, Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Aberdeen, “Confessions of a Dangerous Paradigm: Democratisation, Transitology and Orientalism”)

[The bio-politics of failure:

AND

liberal forces which it sought to undermine.50

We must recognize our complicity in democratization – opposing its harmful practices can only take place working within the structures we inhabit

Kapoor, 8 (Ilan, Associate Professor at the Faculty of Environmental Studies, York University, “The Postcolonial Politics of Development,” p. 54-55)

Taking Derrida’s lead, Spivak insists that deconstruction

AND

Freire), and ‘accountable positioning’ (Haraway).

Effective decision-making should begin with how we constitute ourselves as ethical subjects - we must reject Islamophobia whenever we can

Kouros '99 (George, Yale Law Graduate, And Holds a B.A. in Philosophy from Emory. “Become What You Are,” p. 35-42) *we don’t endorse the gendered language in this ev

Unlike systems of ethics which take the subject

AND

greater quality of life than the inauthentic self.

Constructing this ethical subjectivity must begin from a profoundly contrarian spirit which refuses to capitulate to social injustice

Salaita, 6 (Steven, associate professor of English at Virginia Tech, “Anti-Arab Racism in the USA,” p. 218-220)

Other situations replete with anti-Arab racism

AND

pretend to respect Arabs while looting their resources.

Finally, our commitment to social justice can transform foreign policy - viewing the identity of the state as static abandons a critical opportunity to challenge domination

Schwedler et. al 11 (Jillian Schwedler teaches political science at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst Josh Stacher is an assistant professor of political science at Kent State University  Stacey Philbrick Yadav is the coordinator of the Middle Eastern Studies program and Assistant Professor of Political Science at Hobart and William Smith Colleges Jadaliyya June 10 http://www.jadaliyya.com/pages/index/1826/three-powerfully-wrong_and-wrongly-powerful_americ) 9/4/11

We can expect that Islamists are likely to

AND

support for what they have come to represent.

Ne1NC Security K

Democracy assistance is tied to an understanding of order as entailing Western liberal forms – this is the basis for coercive interventions

Hobson 9 (Christopher Hobson, Department of International Politics Aberystwyth University, Alternatives, “The Limits of Liberal-Democracy Promotion”, #34)

Key actors seeking to support democracy abroad,

AND

for agency are prevented by unfavorable local conditions.

This strategy of containment creates a self-fulfilling prophecy

Sharifi 2008, (Majid, PhD Candidate, Political Science at the University of Florida, “Imagined Enemies: US Iran Relations,” 3/12/2008.

http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p252035_index.html)

The literature on Iran treats modernity and tradition

AND

that I consciously try to analyze texts dialogically.

This ontological commitment to ordering insecurity is the root cause of conflict, makes violence and serial policy failure inevitable

Burke 7 (Anthony Burke, Int'l Studies

AND

, Vol. 10, Iss. 2)

This essay develops a theory about the causes

AND

tragically violent 'choices' will continue to be made.

Vote negative to reject the affirmative’s security politics – effective decision-making should begin with how we constitute ourselves as ethical subjects

Burke 2 (Anthony, Int'l Studies @

AND

Alternatives 27, p. 18-23)

Refusing Security It is perhaps easy to become

AND

, and what its shimmering possibilities might be.

1NC Politics

Obama is aggressively pushing his jobs agenda --- smaller initiatives like the payroll tax reduction are likely to pass

Werner, 10/25 (Erica, AP, 10/25/2011, “For Obama, new focus on the piecemeal,” http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jBBAuCkwwz36b0l5ZSe63veDz47Q?docId=c480f4a9b7634e9f8e0fd60ddd74c5ef)

LOS ANGELES (AP) — The president

AND

got to try to do everything he can."

No political support for the plan now --- Congress will even fight to prevent budget reallocations

Richter, 11 (4/12/2011, Paul LA Times, “Debt worries stymieing U.S. financial aid to help Arab nations in transition; U.S. lawmakers not only have shut the door on new spending to stabilize countries rocked by the so-called Arab Spring. They have resisted proposals to shift money from other foreign aid programs,” http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/12/world/la-fg-mideast-aid-20110413)

The Obama administration's efforts to use foreign aid

AND

resistance from appropriators in Congress, aides say.

Obama is key to passage

Longbottom, 10/13 (Wil, 10/13/2011, “'I won't take no for an answer on jobs bill': Defiant Obama vows to continue despite Senate defeat,” http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2048604/Obama-I-wont-answer-Jobs-bill.html?ito=feeds-newsxml)

President Barack Obama has recorded a defiant new

AND

to pass the plan,' he said.

Recent polling data has revealed 52 per cent of Americans now back the bill, according to SBS.

Failure to extend the tax cut will jack the economy --- it’s a top priority

Temple-West, 10/6 (Patrick, 10/6/2011, Reuters News, “Payroll tax cut needed to avoid recession: Zandi,” Factiva)

 (Reuters) - Failure to extend a

AND

need to act soon," Casey told Reuters.

Broad statistical models prove – unmanaged economic declines lead to global conflict

Royal, Director of cooperative threat reduction, ‘10 [Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction – U.S. Department of Defense, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises”, Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, Ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215]

Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline

AND

economic-security debate and deserves more attention.

1NC Israel

Israel is pushing for an Iran strike but the US has successfully persuaded them to hold back

Roshandel, Professor - Security Studies - ECU, 11

(June, Iran, Israel and the United States: Regime Security vs. Political Legitimacy, pg. 86)

It is clear from this statement that the Israeli government is attempting to place some pressure on the international community to seek further action against Iran. 

AND

Just as the United States has persuaded Israel not to attack Iran, legitimizing Iran’s threat in the process, by persuading Iran not to increase its nuclear weaponry for fear of retaliation by Israel, the United States in some ways legitimizes the potential Israeli response.  While “Israel the state” has enjoyed a close alliance with the United States, Israeli military actions have been treated separately from statehood.  Some may argue that there is, in fact, disproportionate support for “Israel the state” and Israeli military action.  The strong pro-Israeli lobby within the United States has dominated support for Israel’s war agenda, particularly its dealings with Iran.

The affirmatives indifference to Israeli concerns about the direction of the Arab Spring inflates fears that America will be unable to effectively stand up for Israel against Iran

Koppel 11

(4/29, Former anchor and managing editor of Nightline, currently contributing analyst for BBC NPR, The Arab Spring and U.S. Policy: The View From Jerusalem, online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704330404576291063679488964.html)

The canary in the coal mine on such matters is Israel.

AND

The only glimmer of good news for the Israelis may be that, when it comes to reliable allies in the region, Washington's list also keeps getting shorter.

Engaging the MB will be the triggering incident for an Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear facilities by creating profound questions about the US commitment to Israeli security

Roshandel, Professor - Security Studies - ECU, 11

(June, Iran, Israel and the United States: Regime Security vs. Political Legitimacy, pg. 86)

According to some within the Israeli government,

AND

If the United States is unwilling to act and Israeli officials believe that they can no longer tolerate what they view as an increased threat, the possibility of an Israeli strike may become more realistic.

Israeli attack causes great power war and crushes the global economy

Trabanco 09

(Independent researcher of geopoltical and military affairs, “The Middle Eastern Powder Keg Can Explode at Anytime,” globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=11762)

In case of an Israeli and/or

AND

right in the middle of a powder keg.

2NC Israel !

Israeli strike on Iran will cause World War 3

Ivashov, Vice-president of the Academy on geopolitical affairs, 07

(4/9/07, General Leonid, and former chief of the department for General affairs in the Soviet Union’s ministry of Defense “Iran: the Threat of a Nuclear War,” http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=5309)

What might cause the force major event of the required scale? Everything seems to indicate that Israel will be sacrificed.

AND

Forecasts of the territorial distribution of the fighting, the quantities and the efficiency of the armaments involved, the profound character of the underlying roots of the conflict and the severity of the religious strife all leave no doubt that this clash will be in all respects much more nightmarish than WWII.

Escalates and draws in the U.S.

Pletka, VP at AEI, 09

(12/16, vice president of foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute “Why Iran can’t be contained,” http://businessmirror.com.ph/home/perspective/19804-why-iran-cant-be-contained.html)

Advocates of a containment policy suggest that in

AND

into which the United States would be drawn.

U.S. will get the blame for an Israeli strike

Podhoretz ‘8

(Norman-, Feb. Editor-at-large of Commentary, Commentary Magazine, “Stopping Iran: Why the Case for Military Action Still Stands”, http://www.commentarymagazine.com/viewarticle.cfm/Stopping-Iran-br%97Why-the-Case-for-Military%97Action-Still-Stands-11085; Jacob)

But this still does not answer the question

AND

would if we had done the job ourselves.

2NC Israel Links

Israel opposes relaxation of Egyptian military control because the military holds back Islamists

Ben-Meir, Senior Fellow – NYU - Global Affairs, 11

(2/14, The Egyptian Uprising: The Lesson for Israel, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alon-benmeir/the-egyptian-uprising-the_b_823005.html)

The second more hopeful scenario from Israel's perspective

AND

could eventually look more like Turkey than Iran.

Israel will strongly oppose any action which facilitates empowerment of public opinion in the Arab world

Byman – Professor Security Georgetown - 11  

(Summer, Professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, Washington Quarterly, “Israel’s Pessimistic View of the Arab Spring”)

In the past, Israel used the lack of democracy in the Arab world to justify

AND

Israelis fear that the Mubaraks, Husseins, and other dictators are as good as it will get for Israel because these leaders are outside the mainstream of their societies.

Israel only feels secure with the military in control of the Egyptian government – they see the rise of Islamic extremism as the alternative

Ben-Meir, Professor - IR - NYU, 11

(2/18, Egypt-Israel bilateral relations, http://www.thedailynewsegypt.com/columnists/egypt-israel-bilateral-relations.html)

On Saturday, Feb. 12 the Egyptian

AND

Israeli peace treaty be undermined in any way.

Pessimism – Israeli security planners start with worst-case thinking – they won’t listen to the potential “benefits” of engagement

Byman – Professor Security Georgetown - 11  

(Summer, Professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, Washington Quarterly, “Israel’s Pessimistic View of the Arab Spring”)

Americans took heart as they watched Egyptian demonstrators rally in Tahrir Square and topple the regime of Hosni Mubarak in a peaceful revolution.

AND

The new revolutions also have the potential to complicate the U.S.—Israel relationship further and make it harder for the United States to benefit from the Arab Spring.

2NC A2 Relations Cyclical

The Arab Spring has changed the nature of Israeli threat perception – traditional concessions like arms sales don’t matter any more – US approach to regional balance of power is key

Setrakian, Middle East Reporter ABC, 11

(5/23, After Arab Spring, Israel's Season of Insecurity, http://blogs.abcnews.com/mideastmemo/2011/05/after-arab-spring-israels-season-of-insecurity.html)

In the troubling novelty of today’s threats,

AND

Israel can't trust America to defend its interests.”

2NC A2 No Strike

Israel is legitimately considering a strike on Iran – next few months key

Fiore, Fellow – War Studies – Kings College, 11

(July, Israel and Iran’s Nuclear Weapon Programme: Roll Back or Containment?, IAI WORKING PAPERS)

The IAEA’s report, the limited impact of

AND

most likely do in the case of Iran.

1NC SCAF

The US is mitigating SCAF backlash to democracy assistance in the squo – Ambassador Patterson just released records to promote transparency

Kevin Douglas Grant - Deputy Editor of Special Reports at GlobalPost, M.A. USC – 10/21/11, US shares NGO funding records with Egypt, http://www.globalpost.com/dispatches/globalpost-blogs/tahrir-square/us-shares-ngo-funding-records-egypt

US shares NGO funding records with Egypt

Ambassador Anne Patterson takes a concrete step toward

AND

but of the intelligence community,” she said.

The plan infuriates SCAF – it will use the plan to stoke public fears of Western interventionism

Paul Richter and Jeffrey Fleishman, Los Angeles Times - August 10, 2011, U.S. pro-democracy effort rubs many in Egypt the wrong way, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/aug/10/world/la-fg-us-egypt-20110811

Reporting from Washington and Cairo — Six months

AND

wants to be accused of being a spy."

Specifically, SCAF will scapegoat Israel – eventually it will be forced to lashout

Mudar Zahran – 9/9/11, Hudson NY, Egypt's Military Council Toying with Israel, http://www.hudson-ny.org/2410/egypt-military-council-israel

This fiasco served the military council ruling Egypt

AND

million-man-protests for this cause.

Tensions are high – Egypt-Israel conflict engulfs the entire region

Brady, PolicyMic, ’11 (Kyle, August, “A Dangerous Time For Egypt and Israel” http://www.policymic.com/articles/a-dangerous-time-for-egypt-and-israel)

Egypt and Israel have never been friendly neighbors

AND

given, more so now than ever before.

2NC SCAF T/Case

The SCAF will crackdown on NGO’s the plan funds – creates insurmountable obstacle to solvency

Democracy Digest 8/19

(Egypt’s military doing ‘exactly what Mubarak did’ to stifle democrats, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/08/egypts-military-doing-exactly-what-mubarak-did-to-stifle-democrats/)

The US announced $65 million in assistance to support the country’s democratic transition following the Jasmine Revolution that ousted former President Hosni Mubarak. The Egyptian authorities claim that foreign funding is a violation of national sovereignty and an unjustifiable interference in domestic political affairs. But democracy advocates view the attacks on foreign funding as part of a strategy to stifle civil

AND

The SCAF is using the NGO law for the purpose it was designed to serve under the previous regime – to ensure state control of civil society, he believes.

Aid-recipients are blacklisted

OREN KESSLER  - Jerusalem Post - 08/07/2011, Uproar in Egypt as US funnels aid to civil societies, http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=232829

A raucous debate is raging in Egypt over

AND

Organization for Human Rights told Adl- Ahram.

Supporting secular groups to hedge against the MB backfires – causes radicalization and undermines credibility of leftist groups

Ellen Lust - associate professor of political science at Yale – February 2, 2011, Enhancing Egypt’s democratic prospects: support the process, not the players, Democracy Digest, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/02/enhancing-egypt%E2%80%99s-democratic-prospects-support-the-process-not-the-players/

Interesting questions, but the wrong ones –

AND

. Let the people of Egypt do that.

A2 MB Advantage

MB is splintering – could only rule in a coalition government

RANIA ABOUZEID  -TIME – 9/29/11, Egypt: Why the Muslim Brotherhood Isn't All That Fraternal, http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2095351-2,00.html

As the political jockeying begins for staggered elections

AND

, cannot stand in the context of freedom."

Military will ultimately determine foreign policy – no risk of israel policy change now

Bargisi, Sep 12 (2011, Amr, senior partner at the Egyptian Union of Liberal Youth, “An Islamist President in Egypt?,” http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/islamist-president-egypt_592143.html)

It’s true that Nasser turned against the Muslim

AND

long as its own interests are left alone.

MB won’t start a war with Israel

Walberg, 11 --- known worldwide as a journalist specializing in the Middle East, Central Asia and Russia, graduate of University of Toronto and Cambridge in economics (6/16/2011, Eric, “Turkey and the Arab Spring: Learning to Walk Again,” http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=46753)

Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman has expressed fears

AND

is clearly a more powerful and ruthless neighbor.

2NC No Impact

A Salafist will win the presidency – economic troubles will discredit Islamist politics

Amr Bargisi - senior partner at the Egyptian Union of Liberal Youth - Sep 12, 2011, An Islamist President in Egypt?, Vol. 16, No. 48 , Weekly Standard, http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/islamist-president-egypt_592143.html?page=2

Up until Abu Ismail’s candidacy, the prospect

AND

than to protect its own considerable business interests.

A2 Iran Advantage

Optimistic predictions about acceptance were wrong – Egyptian NGOs will deny assistance

Schenker – Gtown’s 1ac author / director, Arab Politics, Washington Institute – 9/15/11

David Schenker - (Gtown’s 1ac author) Aufizen fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy - Sep 15, 2011, Washington’s Limited Influence in Egypt, Weekly Standard, http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/washington-s-limited-influence-egypt_593552.html

While Egyptian officers clearly appreciate the benefits of military to military ties with Washington, the leverage derived from this relationship has been overstated.

AND

Just a month earlier, Cairo turned down a $3 billion low-interest IMF loan with virtually no conditions attached, a decision seemingly predicated on a popular aversion to the United States: According to a Gallup Poll taken earlier this year, 75 percent of Egyptians oppose accepting U.S. economic assistance.    

US democracy assistance causes backlash– damage to US influence is irreversible

Kristen Chick – CSM - August 12, 2011 , Why Egypt is angry over $65 million in US democracy grants, http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/0812/Why-Egypt-is-angry-over-65-million-in-US-democracy-grants

The Egyptian government’s hostile response to a US

AND

Aboulnaga was not available to comment this week.)

American credibility is in terminal decline – can’t influence other nations

Clemons, Director @ New America Foundation, 8-12

[Steve Clemons, Director of the American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation where he previously served as Executive Vice President, and the former director of the Japan Policy Research Institute, Washington editor at large for The Atlantic and editor in chief of Atlantic, “America Next: End of the World As We Knew It,” August 12^th 2011, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/08/america-next-end-of-the-world-as-we-knew-it/243503/]

When the Berlin Wall fell in the summer of 1989, most of the world saw it as a crack so deep and fundamental in the superstructure of the Soviet Union that doubts about the USSR's solvency as a global power abounded. In nature, when a piece of ice larger than Rhode Island breaks off of Antarctica, one sees tangibly the very different world that global warming is shaping.

AND

Power, like an equity in the stock markets, is ultimately a function of future expectations -- and today the reality is that America's stock has fallen dramatically and will only rise again with visionary statecraft revolutionary, new global deal-making that might restore the impression that America once again matters.

Cred is irreparable in the Middle East

Duss, 11 --- Policy Analyst and Director of Middle East Progress (Matt, 7/21/2011, “Arab Opinions Of U.S. Unchanged By Speeches,” http://middleeastprogress.org/2011/07/arab-opinions-of-us-unchanged-by-speeches/, JMP)

A new Zogby International poll of Arab opinions

AND

this on the debate over Tunisia’s new constitution.

Iran is not a military threat – intentions and capabilities

Stephen M. Walt – Professsor of International Affairs @ Kennedy School – 4/20/10, More hype about Iran?, Foreign policy, http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/04/20/more_hype_about_iran

Back when I started writing this blog,

AND

nuclear" at some point in the future).

2NC Military Capacity Solves

Perception of military capacity alone is sufficient

Brooks 10 (Stephen Brooks, Assoc. Prof. of Gov't @ Dartmouth, B.A., Economics and Politics, UC Santa Cruz, M.A., M.Phil., Ph.D., Political Science, Yale University, “Stephen Brooks on Hegemony,” July 21, lecture at the Dartmouth Debate Institute, http://www.planetdebate.com/blogs/view/1043)

Second and final point to remember about why

AND

, but the fact is that we do. 

1NC EU Pressure CP

CP: The European Union should sanction the Central bank of Syria, oil tankers carrying Syrian oil and energy companies operating in Syria until they divest their operations in the country.

CP topples the wobbly Assad regime

Weinthal, Fellow at Defense of Democracies, 9-1

[Benjamin Weinthal, Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, “The Peaceful Way to Bring Down Syria's Assad,” September 1^st 2011, http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/09/01/peaceful-way-to-bring-down-syrias-assad/]

This week, the 27 members of the European Union followed the United States’ lead in imposing sanctions on Syria, banning imports of Syrian crude oil

AND

The Obama administration is uniquely positioned to induce Shell and Total to leave Syria by threatening to deny them access to U.S. markets. The U.S. Treasury department set an important precedent in this regard in 2010, prompting Shell and Total to beat a hasty retreat from their oil operations in Iran.

Counterplan key to EU unity and credibility – uniquely key to advance EU security interests abroad

EFD, 9-5

[European Foundation for Democracy, Germany based Foreign Affairs Think-Tank, “EFD calls for comprehensive economic sanctions on Syria,” September 5^th 2011, http://europeandemocracy.org/media/press-releases/efd-calls-for-comprehensive-economic-sanctions-on-syria.html]

EU must impose comprehensive economic sanctions on Syria

AND

opinion leaders in Brussels and across the EU.

Strong EU solves multiple scenarios of extinction.

Bruton 2001  (John, Former Irish Prime Minister, Report before the Joint Committee on European Affairs, Parliament of Ireland, October, http://www.irlgov.ie/committees-02/c-europeanaffairs/future/page1.htm, from Samford University Institute File)

2.5 As the Laeken Declaration put

AND

blind global forces that will otherwise overwhelm us.

1NC Hezbollah DA

The near collapse of Assad’s regime would force Hezbollah and Syria to initiate a destructive regional war

Noe, ’11

[Nicholas Noe, Co-founder of the news translation service Mideastwire.com and the author of the recent Century Foundation report “Re-imaging the Lebanon Track,” “The Hezbollah Apocalypse,” July 8^th 2011, http://nationalinterest.org/print/commentary/the-hezbollah-apocalypse-5581]

Syria, where Hezbollah finds much of its logistical support—or “strategic depth”—is in crisis. AND

a road that will, in all probability, bring great destruction to the region, including to Israel whose home front will undoubtedly be a main frontline.

Hezbollah-Israel war would escalate regionally, create a Lebanese civil war, revert democratic transitions in the region and increase Tehran’s influence and nuclear capabilities

Saab & Blanford, Former Brookings Analyst, ’11

[Bilal Y. Saab, Visiting Fellow at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, Former Research Analyst at Brookings, Nicholas Blanford, Beirut correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor, “ NEXT WAR: How Another Conflict between Hizballah and Israel Could Look and How Both Sides are,” August 2011, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2011/08_hizballah_israel/08_hizballah_israel.pdf]

Peace, however, might not endure indefinitely

AND

prevent this outcome can design their policies accordingly.

Global nuclear war

Russell, Editor of Strategic Insights, ’09

[James- Senior Lecturer Department of National Security Affairs, Spring, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” Security Studies Center Proliferation Papers, http://www.analyst-network.com/articles/141/StrategicStabilityReconsideredProspectsforEscalationandNuclearWarintheMiddleEast.pdf]

Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined by various factors: (1) asymmetric interests in the bargaining framework that can introduce unpredictable behavior from actors; (2) the presence of non-state actors that introduce unpredictability into relationships between the antagonists; (3)

AND

 The international community must take this possibility seriously, and muster every tool at its disposal to prevent such an outcome, which would be an unprecedented disaster for the peoples of the region, with substantial risk for the entire world.

2NC Hezbollah Impact O/V

More Evidence

Dergham, Member of CFR, 8-14

[Raghida Dergham, Member of The Council on Foreign Relations, Member of the International Media Council of the World Economic Forum, Columnist and Senior Diplomatic Correspondent @ Al Hayat, “Turkey and Iran's Tug on Syria,” August 14^th 2011, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/raghida-dergham/turkey-and-irans-tug-on-s_b_925593.html]

The decision may fall on the Lebanese card

AND

order that would not be in its favor.

Collapse causes Hezbollah attacks of the Gulf Region

Dergham, Member of CFR, 9-4

[Raghida Dergham, Member of The Council on Foreign Relations, Member of the International Media Council of the World Economic Forum, Columnist and Senior Diplomatic Correspondent @ Al Hayat, “How Will Iran and Hezbollah Respond to the Syrian Regime's Predicament?,” September 4th 2011, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/raghida-dergham/how-will-iran-and-hezboll_1_b_947499.html]

The regime of the Islamic Republic is well

AND

the differences between American and European stances appears.

Forces US draw in

David, ’99 [Stephen David, 1999, Professor of Political Science at The Johns Hopkins University, SAVING AMERICA FROM THE COMING CIVIL WARS http://web.ebscohost.com/ehost/detail?vid=1&hid=2&sid=c2660f14-2e09-4272-87dd-a190a4504351%40sessionmgr3&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d#db=bth&AN=1417620]

Conflicts fought within the borders of a single

AND

its most effective means of safeguarding its interests.

2NC Hezbollah Link Wall

Hezbollah will initiate conflict with Israel if Assad’s regime is near collapse – we’re quoting actual Hezbollah statements

Karouny, ’11

[Mariam Karouny, Beirut correspondent for Reuters, Reuters’ Deputy Bureau Chief in Iraq from 2005-2008, “Analysis: Lebanon's Hezbollah may fight Israel to relieve Syria,” June 22nd 2011, http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCATRE75L3S320110622?sp=true]

Lebanon's Hezbollah militant group is

AND

"All options are open including opening the fronts in Golan (Heights) and in south Lebanon."

Hezbollah will attack Israel to protect Assad’s regime – this is a realistic scenario

Baydar, ’11

[Yavuz Baydar, Journalist for Today’s Zaman, Chairman of The International Ombudsman Association, Former BBC Correspondent, “Hezbollah may move in to rescue Assad,” June 23rd 2011, http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist-248295-hezbollah-may-move-in-to-rescue-assad.html]

Lately, two reports indicate rather new patterns

AND

, it seems, that is opening up.

1NC Saudi DA

Collapse of Iranian hegemony means the Saudis takeover the Middle East

Saab, Former Brookings Analyst, 8-31

[Bilal Y. Saab, Visiting fellow at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, Former Research Analyst and the Coordinator of the Internship Program at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, Ph.D. candidate at the Government and Politics Department at the University of Maryland, College Park,  “How Saudi Arabia can contain Iran – and other benefits from Syria's turmoil,” August 31^st 2011, http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2011/0831/How-Saudi-Arabia-can-contain-Iran-and-other-benefits-from-Syria-s-turmoil]

All of a sudden, Saudi Arabia finds

AND

and Iraq's politics are dangerously paralyzing and unstable.

That increases the threat of sectarian violence and AQAP terrorism

Gause, Poli-Sci Professor @ Vermont, 8-9

[F. Gregory Gause, III, Political Science Professor at the University of Vermont, “Is Saudi Arabia really counter-revolutionary?,” August 9th 2011, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/09/is_saudi_arabia_really_counter_revolutionary]

Would the monarchs of the Holy Alliance have supported a democratic uprising anywhere in Europe in 1820? Would Prince Metternich have backed nationalist movements in 1848?

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While the Saudis are correct that there are more Sunnis than Shiites in the Muslim world, privileging sectarian identity gives the Iranian regime an entry into the politics of many Arab states. Riyadh would be better served by encouraging a common Arab identity that overcomes sectarian differences and emphasizes the foreignness of Iran in the Arab world while marginalizing sectarian extremists like al Qaeda and its sympathizers.

Saudi failure to contain AQAP causes attacks on the West

Zimmerman, Analyst @ AEI, ’11

[Katherine Zimmerman, Analyst and the Gulf of Aden Team Lead for the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical, “Estimates for Scenario 2,” April 19th 2011, Threats Project, http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/yemen-strategic-exercise-2011-estimates-scenario-2]

AQAP may also seek to execute a spectacular

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1990s and may have financed al Qaeda operatives.

That cause international nuclear conflict

Speice, ’06

[Patrick F. Jr.-, J.D. Candidate @ Marshall-Wythe School of Law, B.A. @ Wake, Feb., William & Mary Law Review, “Negligence and Nuclear Nonproliferation: Eliminating the Current Liability Barrier to Bilateral U.S.-Russian Nonproliferation Assistance Programs”, Lexis]

Although no terrorist acts directed against the population or interests of the United States or other states have been launched with nuclear weapons yet, this failure "must be assumed to be due to lack of means rather than lack of motivation."

AND

 50 In addition to the threat posed by terrorists, leakage of nuclear knowledge and material from Russia will reduce the barriers that states with nuclear ambitions face and may trigger widespread proliferation of nuclear weapons. 51 This proliferation will increase the risk of nuclear attacks against the United States [*1440] or its allies by hostile states, 52 as well as increase the likelihood that regional conflicts will draw in the United States and escalate to the use of nuclear weapons. 53

2NC Saudi Link

Saudi hegemony in the Middle East post plan would cause massive sectarian violence and terrorism

Mainen, Analyst @ Institute for Gulf Affairs, ’11

[Matthew Mainen, Policy analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs, “Saudi's Dangerous Role in Syria,” July 25^th 2011, http://mainen.blogspot.com/2011/07/saudis-dangerous-role-in-syria.html]

While Saudi Arabia’s involvement in suppressing

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A progressive and democratic Syria aligned with the United States will do the most to contain Iran, not a Saudi proxy.

2NC Saudi Proxy War Impact

Syria’s collapse would escalate to conflict – turns all of their intervention impacts

Doran, Senior Fellow @ Brookings, 8-22

[Michael S. Doran, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Foundation, Ph.D. in History from Princeton University, “The Nexus and the Olive Tree,” August 22nd 2011, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/22/the_nexus_and_the_olive_tree?page=full]

The United States must therefore dispense entirely with

AND

intimidate those Syrians who get in their way.

1NC Advantage CP

Text – The United States Federal Government should:

-       Engage in a broad dialogue with Iran over issues of mutual concern

-       Ban militarily intervention, including the implementation of air strikes, blockades and the imposition of no-fly zones in Syria

-       Ban the provision of political organization assistance for the Syrian National Council

CP Solves Iranian aggression

Dreyfuss, 1AC Author, 11 (Robert, investigative journalist whose work has appeared in The Nation, Rolling Stone, Mother Jones, The American Prospect, and other progressive publications. His work also appears on line at TomPaine.com. Dreyfuss received a bachelor's degree from Columbia University. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, Dreyfuss was Middle East Intelligence director of the Executive Intelligence Review, the flagship journal of the Lyndon LaRouche movement. His 1981 book, Hostage to Khomeini, was commissioned by Lyndon LaRouche and it was cowritten with Thierry LeMarc. The book was published by the LaRouche publishing house of the time, New Benjamin Franklin House. In the 1990s Dreyfuss wrote on intelligence issues and foreign affairs, and profiled a number of organizations and public figures, “Averting a Disaster in the Persian Gulf,” June 8, 2011, http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2011/06/averting-a-disaster-in-the-persian-gulf.html)

Both warned that military miscalculations between naval or

AND

similar agreement between Iran and the United States.

1NC Civil War F/L

1. No one wants to intervene

Saab, Former Brookings Analyst, ’11

[Bilal Y. Saab, Visiting fellow at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, Former Research Analyst and the Coordinator of the Internship Program at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, Ph.D. candidate at the Government and Politics Department at the University of Maryland, College Park,  “Top 3 Reasons Assad is Here to Stay,” June 30th 2011, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/top-3-reasons-assad-here-stay-5548]

Syrian President Bashar Assad will not listen—not yesterday, not today, not tomorrow—to the U.S. government.

AND

The fact is this: Assad is here for now.

2. No bioweapon could kill off humanity – natural resistance and technology check a superbug

Easterbrook (Gregg, The New Republic Editor) 2003 [Wired, "We're All Gonna Die!" 11/7, http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/11.07/doomsday.html]

3. Germ warfare!  Like chemical agents

AND

it seems unlikely to happen in the future.

3. MAD stops US-Russia War

The Nation – 8/28/08

AND

.com/doc/20080915/cockburn)

As regards disastrous and unnecessary military expenditures,

AND

hypothetical circumstances to remind them of these realities."

2NC Intervention XT

There’s no way we would sanction a military intervention to remove Assad – This evidence is also another reason Assad won’t fall

Dreazen, ’11

[Yochi Dreazen, Senior correspondent for National Journal Group covering military affairs and national security, Cites Lieutenant General David W. Barno, “Why The U.S. Won’t Act on Syria,” May 13th 2011, http://www.cnas.org/node/6357]

But Western powers are doing little to bring the violence to an end.

AND

and the West’s refusal to try to stop it -- portends dark days ahead for the battered country. In a recent interview with The New York Times, Rami Makhlouf, an Assad relative who is also the country’s leading businessman, warned the protesters that the regime wouldn’t give up its power peacefully. “We will sit here. We call it a fight until the end,” Makhlouf told the newspaper. “'They should know when we suffer, we will not suffer alone.”

1NC Iran Advantage

1. Assad will not fail and even if he does that won’t wreck Iran’s influence – Middle East pundits have always been wrong – Star this card

Leverett & Leverett, MidEast Director @ National Security Council, 9-1

[Flynt Leverett, Senior Research Fellow at the New America Foundation, Former Senior Director for Middle East Affairs at the National Security Council, Middle East Expert on the Secretary of State's Policy Planning Staff, and Senior Analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency, Ph.D. in politics from Princeton, Hillary Mann Leverett, Senior Lecturer & Fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute for Global Affairs, J.D. from Harvard Law, “Iran and Syria: America's Middle East pundits get it wrong (again),” September 1st 2011, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/01/iran-and-syria-americas-middle-east-pundits-get-it-wrong-again/]

For over 30 years, America’s Iran “

AND

regional balance and come to terms with it.

2. They’re wrong – the Syrians really don’t want American interference

Larison, 11 --- doctoral candidate in Byzantine history at the University of Chicago (Daniel, 8/2/2011, Daniel, “What Is Happening to the “Arab Spring”?” http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2011/08/02/what-is-happening-to-the-arab-spring/, JMP)

As for Iran, the protests in 2009

AND

has so far been no sign of him.

3. The US will inevitably remain the hegemon

Brooks and Wohlforth 9 (Stephen G. Brooks, Prof. of Government at Dartmouth, William C. Wohlforth, Professor of Government and Chair of the Department of Government at Dartmouth, March/April, “Reshaping the World Order”, EBSCO)

Only a few years ago, pundits were

AND

and the same is true of most terrorists.

4. There’s no correlation between hegemony and stability

Fettweis, ’10

[Christopher J. Fettweis, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Tulane University, “Threat and Anxiety in US Foreign Policy,” Survival, 52:2, 59-82, March 25th 2010, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00396331003764603]

One potential explanation for the growth of global

AND

world peace and US military expenditure are unrelated.

5. American credibility is in terminal decline – can’t influence other nations

Clemons, Director @ New America Foundation, 8-12

[Steve Clemons, Director of the American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation where he previously served as Executive Vice President, and the former director of the Japan Policy Research Institute, Washington editor at large for The Atlantic and editor in chief of Atlantic, “America Next: End of the World As We Knew It,” August 12^th 2011, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/08/america-next-end-of-the-world-as-we-knew-it/243503/]

When the Berlin Wall fell in the summer of 1989, most of the world saw it as a crack so deep and fundamental in the superstructure of the Soviet Union that doubts about the USSR's solvency as a global power abounded. In nature, when a piece of ice larger than Rhode Island breaks off of Antarctica, one sees tangibly the very different world that global warming is shaping.

AND

Power, like an equity in the stock markets, is ultimately a function of future expectations -- and today the reality is that America's stock has fallen dramatically and will only rise again with visionary statecraft revolutionary, new global deal-making that might restore the impression that America once again matters.

2NC No Assad Fall XT

Assad won’t fall – your authors use evidence of questionable reliability

Husain, Fellow at CFR, 8-23

[Ed Husain, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, “Why Assad need not fear Gaddafi’s fate,” August 23rd 2011, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/73d4c680-ccb7-11e0-b923-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss#axzz1Vo3wd8tK]

After months of holding his nerve, US

AND

with the US largely working behind the scenes.

Assad won’t fall – military won’t defect and they’re Syria’s only hope

Fisher, Editor @ The Atlantic, ’11

[Max Fisher, Associate editor at The Atlantic, Is Syria Hopeless?,” June 13th 2011, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/06/is-syria-hopeless/240364/]

The international community is poorly equipped to help.

AND

But a kind of mass humanitarian awakening among the security forces, as unlikely as it may be and as absurd as it may sound, could well be Syria's only hope.

The Syrian people are fighting against all odds – multiple warrants

Saab, Former Brookings Analyst, ’11

[Bilal Y. Saab, Visiting fellow at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, Former Research Analyst and the Coordinator of the Internship Program at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, Ph.D. candidate at the Government and Politics Department at the University of Maryland, College Park,  “Long road to freedom: Seven reasons why Syrian protesters have so far failed to topple Assad,” June 10^th 2011, http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2011/0610/Long-road-to-freedom-Seven-reasons-why-Syrian-protesters-have-so-far-failed-to-topple-Assad/Weakness-and-divisions-in-ranks]

Weakness and divisions in ranks: The Syrian

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politics and security of the entire Middle East.

2NC A2 Economy/Generic

Economic decline will be blamed on the West

Harling, Director at the International Crisis Group, 11

[Peter Harling, Iraq-Syria-Lebanon project director with the International Crisis Group, “How not to prolong the Syrian agony,” August 30th 2011, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/30/how_not_to_prolong_the_syrian_agony]

The only support the regime retains

AND

The regime will pin economic woes on an international conspiracy. Wesstern countries will find it hard to resist such sanctions, if only given the lack of alternative sources of pressure.

Business leaders still wouldn’t defect – they disagree with the opposition’s socialist ideology

Landis, Professor of Middle East Studies @ Oklahoma, ’11

[Joshua Landis, Director of the Center for Middle East Studies and associate professor at the University of Oklahoma, “Syrians must win the revolution on their own,” August 9th 2011, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/09/syrians_must_win_the_revolution_on_their_own?wpisrc=obinsite]

Syrian businessmen are a conservative and self-

AND

years, according to a number of analysts.

A2 Turkish Intervention

No Turkish intervention – no hard power use

Yilmaz & Ustun, 10-7

[Nuh Yilmaz and Kadir Ustun, Writers for Al Jazeera, “Critics say Turkey's Syria policy doesn't work because Assad is not reforming - but the critics are wrong.” October 7th 2011, http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/09/201192914823163510.html]

Turkey's neighbourhood policy was based on the vision of a "peaceful and stable" region, and Turkey has used its influence to push for substantial reforms responding to the legitimate demands of the Syrian people. In line with its long-standing preference for non-intervention and gradual, indigenous, true reform processes, Turkey has consciously resisted the idea of using its hard power to bring about change in Syria. Turkey has already declared that it "ran out of patience" with the Assad regime after trying virtually every avenue short of sanctions and military intervention. Military choice is not really a choice in Syria, and Turkey recognises this.

Military use will only be used to block migration

Hurriyet Daily News, 10-7

[Hurriyet Daily News, “Is there a military intervention in Syria?,” October 7th 2011, http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=is-there-a-military-intervention-in-syria-2011-10-07]

Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu was my guest on

AND

measures are more toward obstructing this possible immigration.

2NC No Heg Impact XT

Warfare databases disproves their impact

Geller & Singer, ’99

[*Chair of the Department of Political Science @ Wayne State University (Daniel S and Joel David, Nations at war: a scientific study of international conflict, p. 116-117)]

Hopf (1991) and Levy (1984)

AND

he reports that the frequency, magnitude and severity of war in the international system is unrelated to the number of major powers in the system.

More evidence

Friedman 10—research fellow in defense and homeland security, Cato. PhD candidate in pol sci, MIT (Ben, Military Restraint and Defense Savings, 20 July 2010, http://www.cato.org/testimony/ct-bf-07202010.html, AMiles)

Another argument for high military spending is that

AND

into wars, while providing no obvious benefit.

2NC Cred XT

Cred is irreparable in the Middle East

Duss, 11 --- Policy Analyst and Director of Middle East Progress (Matt, 7/21/2011, “Arab Opinions Of U.S. Unchanged By Speeches,” http://middleeastprogress.org/2011/07/arab-opinions-of-us-unchanged-by-speeches/, JMP)

A new Zogby International poll of Arab opinions

AND

this on the debate over Tunisia’s new constitution.

2NC Soft Power

Obama lacks the will to use soft power

Mark P. Lagon - Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau of International Organization Affairs – 10/18/11, Soft Power Under Obama, World Affairs, http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/ISN-Insights/Detail?lng=en&id=133416&contextid734=133416&contextid735=133415&tabid=133415&dynrel=4888caa0-b3db-1461-98b9-e20e7b9c13d4,0c54e3b3-1e9c-be1e-2c24-a6a8c7060233

One irony of the Obama presidency is how

AND

the United States, something is seriously amiss.