Plan:
The USFG should substantially increase advisory support to those committed to constitutional reform in Bahrain.
Inherency:
Bahrain is in political deadlock - plan key to negotiations that spark reform before violence erupts
Gershman 12/1
(http://www.ned.org/about/board/meet-our-president/archived-presentations-and-articles/the-price-of-freedom-and-democracy)
The core of the problem...they can seize this opportunity and realize its full potential.
Current Silence by the US allows extremists to lead opposition, ensuring another wave of violence
Ulrichsen 4/25/11
(http://www.opendemocracy.net/kristian-coates-ulrichsen/gulf-states-studious silence-falls-on-arab-spring)
The choice to suppress demonstrations... the next explosion could be greater still
Advantage 1 Hegemony
Without reform, the opposition will force fifth fleet withdrawal, but no alternative location exists.
Dietz 4/21/11
(http://www.transterramedia.com/should-us-reconsider-its-relationship-bahrain)
Matar Ebrahim Matar, a leader of the opposition...distasteful to the US as relocating the fleet would be to Saudi
Now is key - any imbalance of power forces the Fifth Fleet to relocate, and current assistance is failing
Stimson Center 7/21/11
http://www.stimson.org/spotlight/the-us-fifth-fleet-in-bahrain)
The home base of the US Navy's...Have an interest in preventing any of these scenarios from materializing
Subpoint A Iranian Deterrence
Fifth Fleet withdrawal collapses Iranian deterrent and allows takeover of the Strait of Hormuz
Goodspeed 2/14/11
(http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/02/14/peter-goodspeed-unrest-in-bahrain-could-threaten-key-u-s-military-outpost/)
There are concerns large-scale...elsewhere in the Arab world suddenly engulfs the emirate
Allowing Iran free reign collapses hegemony from lack of credibility
Etzioni 11
(http://icps.gwu.edu/files/2011/03/credibility.pdf)
As of the beginning of 2011....live up to its commitments overseas.
Subpoint B is Bases
Perceived complicity in Bahraini crackdowns causes other host countries to shut down bases
Cooley and Nexon 4/5/11
(http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics)
The use of force and foreign troops...autocratic friends under the bus.
Pulling out of even one base collapses hegemony - can't deter adversaries or assure allies
Koplovsky 10/23/06
(http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTrdoc?ad=ada463412&location=u2&doc=gettrdoc.pdf)
Based on some of these previous arguments... furthers diplomatic initiatives and contributes to economic development
Hegemony solves nuke war and extinction - multipolarity is inevitable but absolute US power smooths the transition and is empirically correlated to perpetual great-power peace.
Barnett 3/7/11
(http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads)
It is worth first examining....the stage for the pacific century now unfolding.
US hegemonic decline causes global great power war, collapses trade, and spreads protectionism.
Zhang and Shi 1/22/11
(http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/01/22/americas-decline-a-harbringer-of-conflict-and-rivalry/)
Over the past two decades... will inevitably be devoid of unrivaled US primacy
Solvency
US democracy assistance nullifies extremist influence and enables dialogue towards reform-mere endorsement is insufficient. A reformed Bahrain is best for US hegemony, and the US is key
Aziz and Musalem 11
(http://ispu.org/pdfs/640_ispu%20report_bahrain_aziz_muslem_web.pdf)
The Saudi monarchy watched in horror....no longer a lofty ideal: it is in the United States' national interest.
