Plan: The United States federal government should substantially increase its democracy assistance to Bahrain by mediating a high level dialogue with the Bahraini government and opposition group leaders.
US's muted response in Bahrain is destabilizing the region.
Northram '11
http://www.npr.org/2011/05/22/136507091/bahrain-crackdown-puts-pressure-on-u-s-diplomacy MM).
But Salman Shaikh, the director of the Borkkings Doha Center, says...arising throughout the Gulf and also vis-a-vis Iran," Shaikh says.
Bahrain is in political deadlock - plan key to negotiations that spark reform before violence erupts again.
Gershman 12/1
http://www.ned.org/about/board/meet-our-president/archived-presentations-and-articles/the-price-of-freedom-and-democrac
The core of the problem is that the country is paralyzed...with U.S. help, they can seize this opportunity and realize its full potential.
Advantage One: Fifth Fleet
Fifth Fleet will leave Bahrain absent stability; key to check Iranian influence and protect oil transports.
The Australian '11
http://www.theaustralian.com/au/news/world/us-fleet-may-quit-troubled-bahrain/story-e6frg6so-1226098580227,SRM
The US Navy is looking at plans to move its Fifth Fleet...Britain has minesweepers, destroyers and a submarine based in Bahrain.
History proves instability in the Middle East boosts Iranian influence in the region - 5th Feet key to stop Iranian uprising.
Ellis '11
http:/www.businessinsider.com/the-proxy-war-in-bahrain-saudi-arabia-vs-iran-2011-3#ixzz1Xo29VPBt
As George Friedman points out at Stratfor...they were forced into an overt action they were clearly reluctant to take.
Working with both sides prevents regional conflict that spills out of the region.
Brennan '11
http://www.thebeginner.eu/europe/all-in-energy/467-the-if-scenario-a-us-iran-proxy-war-in-bahrain.
A similar project was established in the Gulf three decades later...these clashes may spell the beginning of yet another gulf war.
Middle East war goes Global - threatens nuclear war.
London '10
http://www.hudson-ny-.org/1387/coming-crisis-in-the-middle-east.
The coming storm in the Middle East is gaining momentum...the Sunni "tent" must stand on two legs: if one falls the tent collapses.
Advantage 2: Radicalization
Recent crackdowns have widened sectarian divisions - reconciliations soon is key.
Ulrichsen '11
http://mideast/foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/06/dark_clouds_over_bahrain
The killing of a 14-year-old boy by police...entrenching hard-line attitudes and mutual distrust.
Oppression in Bahrain causes regional radicalization.
McManus '11
http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/17/opinion/la-oe-mcmanus-bahrain-20110417
Why does all this matter?...stakes in Bahrain are higher than many outside the region appreciate," Freeman said.
Sustained crackdown causes radicalization and terrorism.
Ibish '11
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/14/is_bahrain_creating_a_new_terrorist_threat?page=0,1
A campaign of violence by opposition...the opportunity to avoid this is dwindling by the day.
Terrorism causes extinction - draws in Russia and China.
Ayson '10
"After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Vol. 33, Iss. 7.
A terrorist nuclear attack and even the use of nuclear weapons...This might not help the chances of nuclear restraint.
Solvency
Must make constitutional reforms to prevent Saudi or Iranian intervention.
Stephens '11
http://www.rusi/org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4D7E494272218
The Bahraini King's role in ameliorating the situation is now of critical importance...a fact neither Iran nor the West can afford to ignore.
Negotiations addressing the issues announcing by the Crown Prince key to long term stability.
International Crisis Group '11
"Popular Protests in North Africa and the Middle East (III): The Bahrain Revolt" Middle East/North Africa Report.
In the longer term. Negotiations should revolve...warning about the consequences of continued repression.
The Bahraini government will respond to US pressure.
Diwan '11
http://www.cfr.org/middle-east/un-unified-oppositions-bahrain-yemen/p24464
There were statements after the initial crackdown...local reading of this will be that the United States is supportive of what's taking place.
US has pushed for reform and de-escalation in Bahrain but efforts were derailed-both sides want to return to the table.
Gengler '11
http://bahrainipolitics.blogspot.com/2011/04/bahraini-time-bomb.html.
The arrival of the GCC force emboldened Bahraini authorities...Until that happens, the Middle East time-bomb will continue ticking.
Credible US engagement prevents opposition groups from accepting Iranian backing.
POMED '11
http://pomed.org/blog/2011/07/pomed-notes-maryam-al-khawaja-an-update-on-bahrain.html
Al-Khawaja is also concerned about rising...because it is in European and American national interests to do so.
US led dialogue creates credible reform and solves instability.
POMED '11
http://pomed.org/tensions-in-the-persian-gulf-after-the-arab-uprisings-implications-for-u-s-policy
Hans Hgrefe noted that the situation in Bahrain "is very grim"...in Bahrain, the U.S. approach is "critically important".
Preventing Shia radicalization is the best way to undermine regional terrorism.
Husain '11
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/28/AR20110112805611.html
I've lived and traveled across the Arab world...changing the American story and making us all safer? Yes, it can. It must.
