Plan: The United States federal government should substantially increase its party development to Turkey for the Syrian National Council.
The fall of Assad is certain, the only question that remains is how the regime will fall, a unified opposition prevents an Egyptian style collapse that leaves the same authoritarian structures in place
Heydemann, political scientist specializing in the comparative politics and the political economy of the Middle East, with focus on Syria, January 31, 2012 [Steven, “A Credible Alternative,” The Majalla, http://www.majalla.com/eng/2012/01/article55229113] PW
“Across Syria, indications are” and “their extraordinary sacrifice.”
First, a Syrian civil war will enflame the entire Middle East region - refugee crisis, Iran military influence in Syria, a massive spike in oil prices, and terrorist’s attacks on Israel will all be inevitable
Ullman, senior advisor at the Atlantic Council, “Foreign Policy Challenges That Will Keep People Awake at Night “, New Atlanticist, January 26, 2012, [Harlan, p. http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/foreign-policy-challenges-will-keep-people-awake-night] PW
“That said, and despite rumors” and “government in Tehran.”
An uncontrolled collapse will result in power vacuums allowing Hezbollah and terrorist organizations to obtain multiple different weapons from Syria’s arsenal, an attack on Israel would be certain
Kelly, CNN, February 8, 2012 [Suzanne “In Syria: Fears of terrorism out of chaos”, Security Clearance, , p. http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/02/08/in-syria-fears-of-terrorism-out-of-chaos/] PW
“As the international community” and “away from collapsing."”
Syrian chemical weapons attack by Assad or terrorists will cause nuclear retaliation by Israel
Cordesman, Center for Strategic Studies Institute, 2006, [Anthony, “Arab-Israeli military forces in an era of asymmetric wars,” p. 370] JK
“Various experts have postulated” and “ prevent its recovery.”
Israeli nuclear retaliation will cause global nuclear war and extinction
Morgan, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, 2009, [Dennis Ray, Futures, December, p. 685] JK
“Israeli leaders and Zionist” and “fragile ecosphere as well.”
Second is Iran, Syria represents a golden opportunity to derail Iran’s regional hegemony – Turkish influence in Syria is key prevent a post-Assad Syria aligned with Iran
Ben-Meir, prof of IR @ NYU, November 28, 2011 [Alon, “Keystone Influence: Syria’s Arab Spring and The Race for Regional Hegemony,” http://www.iranian.com/main/2011/nov/assads-iranian-shadow- The Iranian] SM
“Conversely, Israel is the only” and “engineering such an outcome?”
Preventing a post-Assad Syria aligned with Iran is key, the only way to end Iran’s nuclear ambitions is to completely boot Iran out of Syria
Halevy, former Israeli national security adviser and ambassador, February 7, 2012 [ Efraim “Iran’s Achilles’ Heel”, New York Times, February 7, 2012, p. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/08/opinion/to-weaken-iran-start-with-syria.html?_r=3&src=tp] PW
“THE public debate in” and “luxury of ignoring it.”
A nuclear Iran would completely destabilize the Middle East, changing the entire decision calculus of the region, rapid proliferation would be inevitable
Haass, President @ Council on Foreign Relations, January 26, 2012 [Richard, “Answering Iran,” http://www.cfr.org/iran/answering-iran/p27197] SM
“We know quite a bit” and “nightmare as there is.”
An unchecked Iran will serve as a catalyst for nuclear war
Ben-Meir, prof of IR @ NYU, February 6, 2007 [Alon, “Realpolitik: Ending Iran’s Defiance,”
http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Security-Industry/2007/02/06/Realpolitik-Ending-Irans-defiance/UPI-69491170778058/] SM
“Feeling emboldened and unrestrained,” and “not halting its nuclear program.”
U.S. aid through Turkey is key to unifying the Syrian National Council and enabling them to oust Assad
Ben-Meir, prof of IR @ NYU, November 28, 2011 [Alon, “Assad's Iranian Shadow - Future of Iran-led "resistance block" in jeopardy,” http://www.iranian.com/main/2011/nov/assads-iranian-shadow- The Iranian]
“The United States and” and “could involve Iran and Israel.”
Political organizational support for the SNC is key to lead to a transition of power devoid of civil war
Maalouf, oversaw programs on democracy promotion for Freedom House, & Torbey, international lawyer and PhD candidate, 15 yrs+ experience in Contemporary Middle East Studies, December 16, 2011 [Marwan and Khattar, “Breaking the Stalemate in Syria,” http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/POMED-Policy-Brief_Maalouf.pdf - POMED] SM
“The situation in Syria has reached” and “bloodshed and humanitarian crisis.”
And, US-Turkey collaboration is vital, given Turkey’s lack of expertise in party building
Ülgen, visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels, December 2011, [Sinan, “From Inspiration to Aspiration – Turkey in the New Middle East,” Carnegie Foundation for International Peace – Carnegie Europe] SM
“The nature of political change” and “that of the Tunisian Islamists.”
US-Turkish Relations Advantage
US-Turkish relations have stabilized, but events concerning Syria threaten to strain overall ties, cooperating on a mutual solution is key
Wilson, Director of the Patriciu Eurasia Center at the Atlantic Council and American ambassador to Turkey in 2005-08, February 8, 2012 [Ambassador Ross “Turkey-US Relations: Dark Clouds on the Horizon”, , p. http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/turkey-us-relations-dark-clouds-horizon] PW
“Turkish Foreign Minister” and “US-Turkish relations.”
And, unilateralism by Turkey in its dealings with the Arab Spring will harm US-Turkey relations—joint democracy assistance is key to sustaining cooperation
Ülgen, visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels, December 2011, [Sinan, “From Inspiration to Aspiration – Turkey in the New Middle East,” Carnegie Foundation for International Peace – Carnegie Europe] SM
“The transformation of Turkey” and “lasting success story.”
Relations solve Middle East stability, terrorism, oil conflicts, and free trade, Iraq, Russia Oil dependence
Menon, Monroe J. Rathbone prof of IR, Lehigh University Fellow, New America Foundation and Wimbush, Director, Center for Future Security Strategies, Hudson Institute, March 2007 [Rajan and S. Enders, Hudson Institute: “Is the United States Losing Turkey?” http://www.hudson.org/files/pdf_upload/Turkey%20PDF.pdf] SM
“If Turkey, a key” and “Turkey’s other neighbors.”
Central Asian oil conflicts leads to regional arms races that escalate into great power wars
Klare, professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College, 2008 [Michael, “The rise of the new energy world order,” http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JD17Dj04.html] SM
“A growing risk of conflict” and “its global distribution.”
Nuclear terrorist attack against the US will cause global nuclear war
Alyson, Centre for Strategic Studies, University of Wellington, 2010: [Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, July, [Robert], p. 584] SM
“Washington’s early response” and “with a devastating response.”
Turkey supports collaborative democracy assistance toward Syria—they will say yes to the plan
Ignatius, staff writer for the Washington Post, December 7, 2011 [David, “U.S. and Turkey Find a Relationship that Works,” http://www.washingtonpost.com/david-ignatius/2011/02/17/ABXXcOJ_page.html] SM
“They are unlikely partners:” and “plan aimed chiefly at Iran.”
Us-Turkey relations are key to stabilizing Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Werz, Center for American Progress et. Al. 2011, After Turkey’s June Elections, June 23, (http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/06/turkey.html)
Afghanistan instability risks sparking an Indo-Pakistan nuclear war
Foust, fellow at the American Security Project, 09 (Joshua, “The Case for Afghanistan: Strategic Considerations” 8-27-09 http://registan.net/index.php/2009/08/27/the-case-for-afghanistan-strategic-considerations)
Indo-Pakistan nuclear war causes global extinction
Robock and Toon, Rutgers and Colorado professors of climatology and atmospheric sciences, 10, Scientific American, January, http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/RobockToonSciAmJan2010.pdf
Status quo coordination with Turkey is just in infancy– plan shores up weakness in relationship, shields the US from backlash, and ends the Syrian civil war
Peker and Gaouette Feb. 10 (Emre and Nicole, Bloomberg, “US Supports Turkey playing a leading role on Syria Crisis” http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-02-10/u-s-supports-turkey-playing-a-leading-role-on-syria-crisis.html)
“The U.S. is supporting a leading” and “powerful allies,” he said.”
The US must act immediately to unite the opposition otherwise Assad’s fall will cause a massive civil war in Syria.
Daniel Byman, professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University and the director of research at the Saban center for Middle East policy at the Brookings Institution “Preparing for Failure in Syria”, Foreign Affairs, March 20th, 2012 http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles.137339/daniel-byman/preparing -for-failure-in-syria
