The United States federal government should substantially increase its party development assistance for the Syrian National Council through the Turkish government.

Advantage One is Civil War

The Assad regime will eventually collapse – the only question is when, delaying US action solidifies the risk of civil war, US influence now creates the soft landing necessary for successful regime change 

Boot, Jeane J. Kirkpatrick Senior Fellow for National Security Studies, December 5, 2011 [Max, “Assad Must Go,” http://www.cfr.org/syria/assad-must-go/p26706] SM

{the realist case…otherwise lack}

We’ll isolate three scenarios

First, full blown civil war in Syria will enflame the entire region – instability will spillover inciting increased violence in other Middle Eastern countries that face sectarian divides

Yacoubian, senior program officer for the Middle East at the U.S. Institute of Peace, October 5, 2011 [Mona

http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/10/05/saving_syria_from_civil_war] SM

{As Syria's uprising … widespread chaos}

Second is Iran, Syria represents a golden opportunity to derail Iran’s regional hegemony – US acting in tandem with Turkey is critical to engineer this outcome – now is the key time

Ben-Meir, prof of IR @ NYU, November 28, 2011 [Alon, “Keystone Influence: Syria’s Arab Spring and The Race for Regional Hegemony,” - The Iranian] SM

{Conversely, Israel is the only regional … indirectly engineering such an outcome?}

An unchecked Iran will serve as a catalyst for nuclear war

Ben-Meir, prof of IR @ NYU, February 6, 2007 [Alon, “Realpolitik: Ending Iran’s Defiance,”

http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Security-Industry/2007/02/06/Realpolitik-Ending-Irans-defiance/UPI-69491170778058/] SM

{Feeling emboldened and unrestrained, … halting its nuclear program}

Third is CBWs, a Syrian civil war will allow terrorists to acquire CBWs and cause warring factions to use CBWs against their enemies

Elsner, Huffington Post, November 23, 2011, [Alan, p. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alan-elsner/syria-civil-war_b_1107502.html] JK

{As Syria teeters … of civilian casualties.}

Hezbullah will use CBWs to attack Israel

, . [Vol. 23, Issue. 12, p. proquest] JK

{Of greater concern … not ratified the CWC}

Syrian chemical weapons attack by Assad or terrorists will cause nuclear retaliation by Israel

Cordesman, Center for Strategic Studies Institute, 2006, [Anthony, “Arab-Israeli military forces in an era of asymmetric wars,” p. 370] JK

{Various experts have … prevent its recovery}

Israeli nuclear retaliation will cause global nuclear war and extinction

Morgan, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, 2009, [Dennis Ray, Futures, December, p. 685] JK

{Israeli leaders and Zionist … ecosphere as well}

U.S. aid through Turkey is key to unifying the Syrian National Council and enabling them to oust Assad

Ben-Meir, prof of IR @ NYU, November 28, 2011 [Alon, “Assad's Iranian Shadow - Future of Iran-led "resistance block" in jeopardy,” - The Iranian] SM

{The United States and … could involve Iran and Israel}

Political organizational support for the SNC is key to lead to a transition of power devoid of civil war

Maalouf, oversaw programs on democracy promotion for Freedom House, & Torbey, international lawyer and PhD candidate, 15 yrs+ experience in Contemporary Middle East Studies, December 16, 2011 [Marwan and Khattar, “Breaking the Stalemate in Syria,” http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/POMED-Policy-Brief_Maalouf.pdf - POMED] SM

{The situation in Syria … ongoing bloodshed and humanitarian crisis}

And, US-Turkey collaboration is vital, given Turkey’s lack of expertise in party building

Ülgen, visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels, December 2011, [Sinan, “From Inspiration to Aspiration – Turkey in the New Middle East,” Carnegie Foundation for International Peace – Carnegie Europe] SM

{The nature of political … of the Tunisian Islamists}

Advantage Two is U.S.-Turkey Relations

Although US-Turkey relations have improved, deeper engagement and cooperation is key to sustaining the long-term relationship

Kanat, Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA), December 25, 2011, [Kilic Bugra Sunday’s Zaman, http://www.sundayszaman.com/sunday/newsDetail_getNewsById.action?newsId=266628] JK

{With major changes … other geographical regions}

And, unilateralism by Turkey in its dealings with the Arab Spring will harm US-Turkey relations—joint democracy assistance is key to sustaining cooperation

Ülgen, visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels, December 2011, [Sinan, “From Inspiration to Aspiration – Turkey in the New Middle East,” Carnegie Foundation for International Peace – Carnegie Europe] SM

{The transformation …lasting success story}

Relations solve Middle East stability, terrorism, oil conflicts, and free trade, Iraq, Russia, Oil dependence
 Menon, Monroe J. Rathbone prof of IR, Lehigh University Fellow, New America Foundation and Wimbush, Director, Center for Future Security Strategies, Hudson Institute, March 2007 [Rajan and S. Enders, Hudson Institute: “Is the United States Losing Turkey?” ] SM

{If Turkey, …Turkey’s other neighbors}

Central Asian oil conflicts leads to regional arms races that escalate into great power wars
 Klare, professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College, 2008 [Michael, “The rise of the new energy world order,” ] SM

{A growing risk … control its global distribution}

Nuclear terrorist attack against the US will cause global nuclear war

Alyson, Centre for Strategic Studies, University of Wellington, 2010: [Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, July, [Robert], p. 584] SM

{Washington’s early … devastating response}

Turkey supports collaborative democracy assistance toward Syria—they will say yes to the plan

Ignatius, staff writer for the Washington Post, December 7, 2011 [David, “U.S. and Turkey Find a Relationship that Works,” http://www.washingtonpost.com/david-ignatius/2011/02/17/ABXXcOJ_page.html] SM

{They are unlikely .. chiefly at Iran. }

And, Syria is a key test case for US-Turkey cooperation

, Lehigh University professor of international relations, April 26, 2011, [Henri, Turkey and the Arab Spring, p. http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2011/04/26/turkey-and-arab-spring/2s3

{And at the …  although certainly messy}

Collaborative democracy assistance will bolster US-Turkey relations

Kirisci, prof of PolySci @ Boğaziçi University, 2011, [Kemal, Insight Turkey, vol 13,  no. 2, [], p. 50 ] JK

{The craving for … a common strategy}

Plan: United States Congress should substantially increase Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI) funding for Egypt and allow all Egyptian political parties to receive access to MEPI programs.

The Freedom & Justice Party, the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood, won a plurality of seats in the Egyptian parliament

CNN, January 17, 2012, p. http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/17/world/africa/egypt-muslim-brotherhood/index.html

“Egypt's top political parties” and “former President Hosni Mubarak.”

The new Egyptian prime minister will be from the Freedom & Justice Party 

Washington Post, January 16, 2012, “Egypt's next parliament to be led by Islamist”,  p. http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/egypts-parliament-to-be-led-by-islamist/2012/01/16/gIQASabE3P_print.html

“Liberals and Islamists in Egypt” and “Muslim Brotherhood organization.”

And don’t buy the New York Times hype – US is not truly engaging with the Freedom & Justice Party – the “engagement” is just a couple of meetings and there is no coherent strategic dialogue occurring

Shadi Hamid, fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings, January 6, 2012, PBS FRONTLINE Interview, “Why Is America Reaching Out to Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood?”, p. http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/foreign-affairs-defense/revolution-in-cairo-foreign-affairs-defense/why-is-america-reaching-out-to-egypts-muslim-brotherhood/

“As the final results of Egypt’s” and “between the two sides historically.”

In addition, Congress won’t support any engagement with the Freedom & Justice Party, even if Obama tries

Talk Radio News Service, November 29, 2011, Is US Aid To Post-Election Egypt At Risk?

p. http://www.talkradionews.com/news/2011/11/29/is-us-aid-to-post-election-egypt-at-risk.html

“Hussein says the Obama administration” and “could be a significant obstacle.”

U.S. exclusion of the Freedom & Justice Party is a glaring contradiction in its promotion of democracy – inclusion signifies a radical break within the still lingering hypocritical rhetoric of the Bush Administration which promotes its own values instead of those of the Egyptian people

Kadlec, MA candidate in International Affairs specializing in US foreign policy and democratizing states, 2009 [Amanda, “Democracy Promotion: The Case of the Muslim Brotherhood,” http://iar-gwu.org/node/55] SM

“Despite the difficulty of the” democracy in the Middle East.”

This is especially true with the Freedom & Justice party -- the US patronizing views about what the Egyptian people should want is out of touch with reality

Shadi Hamid, fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings, January 6, 2012, PBS FRONTLINE Interview, “Why Is America Reaching Out to Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood?”, p. http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/foreign-affairs-defense/revolution-in-cairo-foreign-affairs-defense/why-is-america-reaching-out-to-egypts-muslim-brotherhood/

“Is the rise of the Salafis an” and “Brotherhood to a great extent. “

The plan is an endorsement of pluralism – current U.S. democracy assistance conditions aid on opposition parties converting to Western notion of democratic values – by including the Freedom & Justice Party in U.S. democracy assistance the U.S. moves away from a policy of forced regime change that promotes social engineering

Etzioni, university professor and professor of international relations at The George Washington University, [Amitai “Toward a Nonviolent, Pluralistic Middle East”, Middle East Quarterly, Vol. XVIII, No. 4, Fall 2011, p. http://www.meforum.org/3050/nonviolent-pluralistic-middle-east] PW

“"Illiberal moderate" also pertains to” and “should we determine which qualify?”

The plan reflects Obama’s promise to support freedom over security, funding through the MEPI helps support vibrant civil society groups and all forms of inclusion in Egypt

Dorsey, senior researcher at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute, 2011:

[“US Risks Missing Opportunity to Play Leading Role in Middle East Transition”, Al Arabiya News, 7-5,  [James], p. http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/07/05/156264.html]

“The ascendancy of Islamist groups” and “promote democratic change.”

Pluralistic engagement with the Freedom & Justice Party prevents armed conflict

Kiriakou, former senior investigator on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, December 12, 2011, Huffington Post, [John], p. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-kiriakou/john-kerry-egypt_b_1143980.html

“So what's in it” and “to not talk to them.”

Through inclusion of the Freedom & Justice Party in the plan allows questioning of methods but still allows liberal values to create space for local choices 

Youngs, University of Warwick Professor and FRIDE Director, 2011 [Richard “Misunderstanding the Maladies of Liberal Democracy Promotion”, Working Paper 106, January 2011, p. http://www.fride.org/publication/884/misunderstanding-the-maladies-of-liberal-democracy-promotion] SM

“Clearly, more debate about different” and “without descent into relativism?”  

US failures in democracy are reasons to promote it – only democracy can correct mistakes – the alternative is stagnation and conflict

Rosa Brooks, law professor at the Georgetown University Law Center, “Democracy Promotion: Done Right, A Progressive Cause”, Democracy: A Journal of Ideas, Issue 23, Winter 2012, p. http://www.democracyjournal.org/23/democracy-promotion-done-right-a-progressive-cause.php

“The events of the last year” and “to go badly wrong forever.”