A. Payroll tax extension will pass
Andrew Taylor, AP, October 11, 2011, p. http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2011/10/11/senate-republicans-vote-to-defeat-obamas-jobs-bill
"The White House appears" and "Social Security payroll tax"
B. Link
Increasing democracy assistance will burn Obama's political capital
Lancaster, 2008, George Bush's Foreign Aid: Transformation or Chaos? Chapter 2, p. http://www.cgdev.org/files/16085_file_Lancaster_WEB.pdf
"Now matter how much need" and "any major federal program."
Political capital is key to passing payroll tax extension
The Philadelphia Inquirer, September 8, 2011, p.factiva
"Given Republican opposition" and "Security financially sound."
C. Impact
Payroll tax extension is key to preventing a recession
Zandi, Chief Economist of Moody's Analytics, October 7, 2011, MSNBC: Intervew With Moddy's Chief Economist Mark Zandi, MSNBC, [Mark], p.factiva
"ZANDI: Well, Republican proposals" and "we'll likely go into recession."
US economic decline will cause a global depression, trade wars and shooting wars
Judis, Carnegie Endowment, 2011, The New Republic, August 8, [John], p. http://www.npr.org/2011/08/08/139080654/new-republic-a-lesson-from-the-great-depression
"What is at stake goes" and "over the next year."
Global economic decline increases the risk of World War III and global nuclear war
O'Donnell, 2009, Baltimore Examiner, "Will this recession lead to World War III?"
"One of the causes of" and "history repeats itself."