Michael Holland & Dana Snay
The plan: The United States Congress should substantially increase Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI) funding for Egypt and allow all Egyptian political parties to receive access to MEPI programs.
Advantage 1: the Brotherhood
Muslim Brotherhood will win the November election
Saikal 11, Australian National University political science professor, August 11, 2011:
[Sydney Morning Herald, [Amin], p. http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/egypt-must-tough-it-out-on-the-often-rocky-road-to-revolution-20110810-1imnl.html]
“In Egypt, the balance of” and “dominance in Egyptian politics.”
Excluding the Muslim Brotherhood from participation in MEPI guarantees hostility against the US and Israel
Hamid, Brookings Institution, 2010:
[Democracy Journal, Winter, [Shadi, http://www.democracyjournal.org/pdf/15/Hamid.pdf]
“Meanwhile, the Middle East” and “when it will be too late.”
Status quo attempts to engineer elections split the MB – causes radicalization that makes engagement impossible
Guseynov, Contributing Writer - Middle Eastern Affairs, 7-10-’11
(Enver, “Muslim Brotherhood, Israel and US Intervention in Egypt” http://www.suite101.com/content/muslim-brotherhood-israel-and-us-intervention-in-egypt-a378984#ixzz1VVTJXVDL)
“Not surprisingly, efforts are being” and “insecurity in the Middle East.”
Engagement reduces the risk of the Brotherhood providing support to Hamas and Hezbollah
Daily News Egypt 11, July 1, 2011, Analysis: US overtures to Egypt Islamists show pragmatism
“More official, and more regular,” and “Political and Strategic Studies.”
2 scenarios for escalation 1) Sinai troops
Egyptian troops are building along Israel border in Sinai, causes war
Glick 11 (Caroline, Center for Security Policy, is deputy managing editor of the Jerusalem Post “Our World: The perils of a remilitarized Sinai,” Jerusalem Post, 08/29/2011 http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Article.aspx?id=235908)
“The fact that they shot into” and “populist forces to foment war.”
Sinai’s uniquely destabilizing - goes nuclear
Zitun 11 (Yoav, Staff Writer – YNet, “IDF General: Likelihood of Regional War Growing”, YNet, 9-5, http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4118220,00.html)
“Recent revolutions in the Arab” and “rather than only one," he said.”
2 – Suez Canal
Muslim Brotherhood will spark a war over controlling the Suez Canal—destroying the world economy
Sterne, Managing Partner Sterne and Co, 2011, Egypt's Second Suez Canal Crisis” January 30, [Paul], p. http://www.groundreport.com/World/Second-Suez-Crisis/2933579
“With the Muslim Brotherhood in” and “Egypt began will look tame.”
World economic collapse will roll back democracy and cause global wars
Tilford 8, former history professor at Grover City College, 2008:
[Critical Mass: Economic Leadership or Dictatorship October 6, Earl, p. http://www.visandvals.org/Critical_Mass_Economic_Leadership_or_Dictatorship.php?view_all=1]
“However, as a historian I know” and “devolve to that point very quickly.”
Advantage 2: US Credibility
U.S. credibility in the Middle East is plummeting now
Zogby, 2011, “America in Trouble in the Middle East: Obama Understands, But GOP Gloats”, Huffington Post, 7-16,[James], p. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/james-zogby/ameri ca-in-trouble-in-the_b_900649.html?ir=World)
“Well, the results are in” and “ and “5% in this year's survey.”
Second, increasing funding for the Middle East Partnership Initiative is key to reversing anti-Americanism
Dorsey, senior researcher at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute, 2011:
[“US Risks Missing Opportunity to Play Leading Role in Middle East Transition”, Al Arabiya News, 7-5, [James], p. http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/07/05/156264.html]
“The ascendancy of Islamist groups” and “promote democratic change.”
Excluding Islamic parties from democracy assistance is a major cause of Muslim resentment against the US—it is perceived as an attempt to destroy Islam
Kull, director of the Program on International Policy Attitudes, 2011;
[Why Muslims are still mad at America, September 9, [Stephen], p. http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/05/why-muslims-are-still-mad-at-america/
“Trying to understand Muslims’ feelings” and “seeking to undermine Islam itself.”
Engagement with the Muslim Brotherhood is vital to reclaiming support of the Arab Street and solving for the perception that the US always favors Israel over Arabs
Traub 8, New York Times Magazine contributing writer:
[The Freedom Agenda: Why America must spread Democracy (Just not the way George Bush did), James, p. 189]
“The United States does not need” and “poke up from local turf.”
US policy in other areas like Afghanistan, Iraq, and Israel are all secondary concerns to US policy towards the Muslim Brotherhood
VOA News 9/1
(US Response to 9/11 Taints Muslim Image of America, Lexis)
““There's the bad America that” and “so far there has been no contact.”
Anti-Americanism facilitates the recruitment and funding for terrorism
Kull 2011: [Why Muslims are still mad at America, September 9, [Stephen], p.] http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/05/why-muslims-are-still-mad-at-america/
“On the ten-year anniversary” and “from taking him out.”
Anti-Americanism increases the risk of WMD terrorism against the United States.
Leadership Group on U.S. Muslim Engagement, 2009, Changing Course: A New Direction for U.S. Relations with the Muslim World”, February, p. http://www.usmuslimengagement.org/storage/usme/documents/Changing_Course_Second_Printing.pdf
“Improving relations with Muslim” and “tens of thousands or more.”
Bioweapons cause extinction
Ochs 2, Chemical Weapons Working Group Member, 2
Richard [“Biological Weapons must be Abolished Immediately,” June 9, http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html]
“Of all the weapons of mass” and “IS NOW POSSIBLE.”
Zawahiri’s goal is the acquisition of a nuclear bomb – risk of al Qaeda nuclear attack is high
Kanani, Editor of World Affairs Commentary, 2011:
Forbes, June 29, [Rahim], p http://www.forbes.com/sites/rahimkanani/2011/06/29/new-al-qaeda-chief-zawahiri-has-strong-nuclear-intent/
“We should be especially worried” and “short of detailed and deliberate.”
Nuclear terrorism will cause global nuclear war, leading to extinction.
Sid-Ahmed 4 Mohamed Sid-Ahmed, Egyptian political analyst for the ‘Al-Ahram’ newspaper, 2004, Al-Ahram online, August 26, 2004, p. http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm
“What would be the consequences” and “we will all be losers.”
Detonation of one crude bomb will reduce GDP by billions and cause a world financial collapse
PERRY 7, CO-DIRECTOR, CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL SECURITY COOPERATION, STANFORD UNIVERSITY, 2007, U.S. NUCLEAR WEAPONS POLICY, JULY 18, House Armed Services Committee Hearing H.A.S.C. No. 110–73, [William], p. 4
“But I believe the greatest danger” and “part of our government.”
And Mueller is wrong in dismissing the risk of nuclear terrorism as a 1 in one million risk
Zimmerman, Dept of War Studies, King’s College, 2009, Defence Against Terrorism Review, Fall, [Peter], p. 4-5
“Mueller chooses another set” and “followed by a gruesome death.”
