Reject the Affirmative and pursue indigenous land return as a first priority. This act of impossible realism solves the case—Colonization is the root cause of oppression, exploitation and war. Only a return to an indigenous politics can remedy the ills of colonialism.
Ward Churchill 1996 (Professor of Ethnic Studies at University of Colorado, Boulder, BA and MA in Communications from Sangamon State, From A Native Son pgs 85-90)
"The question which inevitably arises" and "Isn’t it time we all worked on attaining it?"

Denying Native American sovereignty claims allow whiteness and whiteness studies to continue to ignore Indigenous oppression by operation outside these structures
Aileen Moreton-Robinson, Geonpul scholar and professor of indigenous studies at Queensland University of Technology, “Writing Off Treaties: White Possession in the United States Critical Whiteness Studies Literature” in Transnational Whiteness Matters, edited by Aileen Moreton-Robinson, Maryrose Casey, Fiona Jean Nicoll, 2008, p. 87
"Within the United States of America the sovereignty" and "individualized rights framework accorded to this subject."

The counterplan is a prior question - The fact there is white possession of Native’s land is Natives are ignored in whiteness studies which predominately focus on the black/white dichotomy – only by giving the land back first can we even have this discussion
Aileen Moreton-Robinson, Geonpul scholar and professor of indigenous studies at Queensland University of Technology, “Writing Off Treaties: White Possession in the United States Critical Whiteness Studies Literature” in Transnational Whiteness Matters, edited by Aileen Moreton-Robinson, Maryrose Casey, Fiona Jean Nicoll, 2008, p. 87
"Indigenous sovereignties within" and "its continued existence."

White possession of native lands produces racism – this is a macro-level issue because failure to prioritize the fact that the US stole indigenous lands causes a sociodiscursive shift in ALL whiteness studies where “race” becomes synonymous with “black” and slavery becomes the proof of whiteness instead of the stolen land, which grants white privilege in the first place
Aileen Moreton-Robinson, Geonpul scholar and professor of indigenous studies at Queensland University of Technology, “Writing Off Treaties: White Possession in the United States Critical Whiteness Studies Literature” in Transnational Whiteness Matters, edited by Aileen Moreton-Robinson, Maryrose Casey, Fiona Jean Nicoll, 2008, p. 90
"Despite the colonial history" and "to produce racism."

White privlidge is based on stolen land – our advocacy is a prerequisite to solve
Aileen Moreton-Robinson, Geonpul scholar and professor of indigenous studies at Queensland University of Technology, “Writing Off Treaties: White Possession in the United States Critical Whiteness Studies Literature” in Transnational Whiteness Matters, edited by Aileen Moreton-Robinson, Maryrose Casey, Fiona Jean Nicoll, 2008, p. 88
"Few Native American scholars" and "inequality and stolen land."

THE 1AC’S ENDORSEMENT OF AN “ARAB WORLD” IS A FALSE PRESCRIPTION OF THE WEST THAT UPHOLDS AND REIFIES ORIENTALIST THINKING BY LUMPING PEOPLE TOGETHER SIMPLY BY LANGUAGE
Franck Salameh, Assistant Professor, Department of Slavic and Eastern Languages at Boston College, Language, Memory, and Identity in the Middle East: The Case for Lebanon, 2010, p. 15
"Therefore, dealing with "and “Orientalist” rapacity."

USING THE TERM “ARAB” TO DESCRIBE THE MIDDLE EAST PUSHES MINORITIES INTO THE FOLD OF ARABISM, REJECTING THEIR PARTICULARITIES AND PUTTING THEM IN OPPRESSIVE VICE OF CULTURAL ELIMINATION
Mordechai Nisan, scholar of Middle East Studies at the Rothberg International School of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Minorities in the Middle East: A History of Struggle and Self-Expression, 2002, p. 23-4
"Yet the notion" and "vice of oppression."  

WE MUST REJECT THE NOTION OF AN ARAB WORLD – USING THE TERM “MIDDLE EAST” ALLOWS MULTIPLE ETHNICITIES AND PERSPECTIVES TO BE ACKNOWLEDGED
**This evidence has been gender modified
Franck Salameh, Assistant Professor, Department of Slavic and Eastern Languages at Boston College, Language, Memory, and Identity in the Middle East: The Case for Lebanon, 2010, p 40.
"This is the Middle East" and "of modern ideologies."

Policy relevance is key - unintelligible jargon causes policymakers to ignore us
Joseph Nye,  professor at Harvard University and former dean of the Harvard Kennedy School. Former Asst. Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs,  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/12/AR2009041202260_pf.html 4-13-09
President Obama has appointed
AND
the trends in academic life seem to be headed in the opposite direction. 

Democracy assistance includes the transfer of funds, expertise and materials to groups and institutions working toward democracy
Lappin, University of Leuven (Belgium) Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies PhD candidate, 10
[Richard, participant in democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE, and Carter Center, University of Belgrade political sciences visiting scholar, Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, Volume 4 Issue 1, “What we talk about when we talk about democracy assistance: the problem of definition in post-conflict approaches to democratization” , p.187-8]
"Democracy assistance can be" and "groups and political parties."  

Democracy assistance is 4 types of programs: Elections, Rule of Law, Civil Society & Governance
Nancy Bermeo, Nuffield College Professor of Comparative Politics, New Challenges to Democratization, edited by P. Burnell & R. Youngs, 2010, p. 91
"The terms aid and" and "(2008: 9-10)."

A. Uniqueness

Korea FTA will be approved next week - Obama has bipartisan support for a deal with the House Republicans
Linden, October 6, 2011, Produce News Daily, [Tim], p.
"The Obama administration submitted" and "90 days to act."

B. Link

Increasing democracy assistance before the FTA will enrage House GOP Republicans and spark partisan fighting
McLaughlin, 2011, Washington Diplomat, April 26, 2011, [Seth], p.
"In general, most" and "or severely gutted."

Partisanship will erode GOP support for South Korea FTA
Southeastagent.com, September 26, 2011, p.
"Chances for passage of" and "chance of ratification"

C. Impact

Korea FTA is key to sustaining the alliance and US leadership in Asia
Scott Snyder, Council on Foreign Relations, 2/16/10, p.
"In an interview with Bloomberg" and "credibility and influence in Asia."

The alliance and US leadership are key to Asian stability and deterring conflicts
Balbina Y. Hwang, Heritage Foundation, 2006, p.
"At the heart of our discussion about" and "countries rise to the occasion."

Asian conflicts will escalate to global nuclear war and destroy the economy
Niklas Swanstrom, Silk Road Studies, 2004, p.
"Moreover, Northeast Asia could be argued" and "environment and the US role in it."

A. Interpretation - Substantial increase is at least 30%
Hantash, 2006, Patent Attorneys & Engineers Lynch Kneblewski - Sâo Paulo
[Feras, 3/16, dt20060316ptan20060057593.php]
"A substantial increase" and "wildtype CFTR gene."

Increase means to make larger or greater
Encarta World English Dictionary, 2007,
make or become larger or greater: to become, or make something become, larger in number, quantity, or degree

And democracy assistance’s primary focus must be for democracy and involve a transfer of resources
Peter Burnell, Department of International Studies, University of Warwick Democracy Assistance: International Co-operation for Democratization, 2000. p. 5
"When defining democracy assistance" and "arbitrary judgments."

A) Link
1) New spending for Middle East democracy assistance will be reallocated from economic support funds
Project on Middle East Democracy, 2011, Summary and Highlights of FY 11 Appropriations Act, April 17,
"Speaking on the wave" and "for other programming."

2) Civilian aid to Pakistan is funded by economic support funds
Susan Cornwell, Reuters, April 21, 2011, p. (accessed: 8-12-2011)
"The spending bill" and "the CRS says" 

3) Pakistan aid will be cut to fund new democracy initiatives
Americans for Democracy and Justice in Pakistan, March 7, 2011, Thomas Friedman’s Woeful Misunderstanding of Pakistani Politics,  p. 6-1-2011)
"Support for emerging" and "it is this."

B) Impact
1) Reducing US civilian aid to Pakistan will reduce cooperation on terrorism, spark political and economic instability and increase the risk of nuclear war with India
Pande, Hudson Institute, 2011, Federal News Service, Testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations Hearing - "Reassessing American Grand Strategy in South Asia." , July 26, [Aparna], p. factiva
"Over the years the" and "from a stable Pakistan." 

2) India-Pakistan nuclear war causes global extinction
Caldicott, Physicians for Social Responsibility, 2002, The New Nuclear Danger, p. xiii
"The use of Pakistani" and "life on earth."

Turn: decentralization assistance gives local elites more power, rigs elections, and increases corruption

Egel, Associate Economist at RAND, 9 (Daniel, PHD in economics UC Berkley, “Tribal Diversity, Political Patronage and the Yemeni Decentralization Experiment” November 19, 2009 ) 3-4

An important change in the institutional framework AND Yemen, such as Afghanistan and Somalia. 

Turn: empirics prove decentralization fuels instability and weak economy prevents action against AQAP

White, former Deputy Director in the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research Office of Analysis for the Near East and South Asia, 11 (Wayne, adjunct scholar at Middle East Institute, “Yemen: A Host of Unknowns,” National Journal June 8 )

A major concern overall should be Yemen's AND  al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. 

Status quo solves – Italian funding fills in

Al-Bawaba 5 (“Yemen: Decentralization experience and local development supported” June 9 )

  The Italian government has donated AND enforce the training programs.

Plan can’t solve – necessary but not sufficient to decentralization

Romeo and El-Mensi 8 (Leonardo was Principal Technical Adviser for Local Development Planning with the United Nations Capital Development Fund and is Managing Director of Local Development International and an Adjunct Professor of Planning at Robert F. Wagner Graduate School of Public Service of New York University. Mohamed El-Mensi is a senior public finance consultant and former assistant professor at the University of Tunis. “The Difficult Road to Local Autonomy in Yemen” )

But even if a real strategic commitment  and specific services delivery responsibilities.

Uniqueness and link: Relations are low with Saudi Arabia but mendable – supporting Bahrain derails reconciliation

Ottaway 11 (Marina, Senior Associate Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment, “Bahrain: Between the United States and Saudi Arabia,” April 4, 2011, )

But U.S. concerns in dealing AND take precedence right now.  

Link: Bahrain is an existential threat to US-Saudi relations because it provides Iran with more power

International Crisis Group 11 (POPULAR PROTEST IN NORTH AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST (VIII):

BAHRAIN’S ROCKY ROAD TO REFORM, July , p. 21)

For reasons noted above, Saudi Arabia AND but not in Bahrain.

Impact: Deterioration of relations with the US leads Saudi Arabia to a nuclear sharing agreement with China

Lippmann August 5 (Thomas W. Lippman is a senior adjunct scholar at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, 2011, “Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear Policy,” SUSRIS, )

So let us suppose that Saudi Arabia’s AND  realm of possibility.  

Saudi prolif leads to fast regional prolif

Center for Contemporary Conflict 2004  (“Conference on WMD Proliferation in the Middle East: Directions and Policy Options in the New Century” )

James Russell from the Naval Postgraduate School AND to ensure U.S. engagement?

Rapid proliferation increases the risk of nuclear war in 5 ways—and the outbreak of a regional nuclear war in the Middle East is a 5 in 6 probability

Allison, Harvard JFK professor and Belfer Center Director, 2006:

(The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, Fall, Graham, p. 20-21)

Were a cascade of nuclear proliferation AND  regional nuclear war.  

A. Payroll tax extension will pass
Andrew Taylor, AP, October 11, 2011, p. http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2011/10/11/senate-republicans-vote-to-defeat-obamas-jobs-bill
"The White House appears" and "Social Security payroll tax"

B. Link

Increasing democracy assistance will burn Obama's political capital
Lancaster, 2008, George Bush's Foreign Aid: Transformation or Chaos? Chapter 2, p. http://www.cgdev.org/files/16085_file_Lancaster_WEB.pdf
"Now matter how much need" and "any major federal program."

Political capital is key to passing payroll tax extension
The Philadelphia Inquirer, September 8, 2011, p.factiva
"Given Republican opposition" and "Security financially sound."

C. Impact

Payroll tax extension is key to preventing a recession
Zandi, Chief Economist of Moody's Analytics, October 7, 2011, MSNBC: Intervew With Moddy's Chief Economist Mark Zandi, MSNBC, [Mark], p.factiva
"ZANDI: Well, Republican proposals" and "we'll likely go into recession."

US economic decline will cause a global depression, trade wars and shooting wars
Judis, Carnegie Endowment, 2011, The New Republic, August 8, [John], p. http://www.npr.org/2011/08/08/139080654/new-republic-a-lesson-from-the-great-depression
"What is at stake goes" and "over the next year."

Global economic decline increases the risk of World War III and global nuclear war
O'Donnell, 2009, Baltimore Examiner, "Will this recession lead to World War III?"
"One of the causes of" and "history repeats itself."

EU can re-deploy funding from other areas to increase democracy funding to MENA countries
Agence Europe, June 29, 2011, p.factiva
"The joint communication" and "administrative support expenditure"

EU solves Bahrain
Fakhro 2009, The European Union and Islam, p. http://www.idea.int/resources/analysis/upload/Fakhro_low_2.pdf
"Having examined both the influence" and "partner of the Arab world."

Democracy assistance key to boosting EU soft power
Gerrits, University of Amsterdam professor, 2007, Democracy: Europe's Core Value? eds. by M. van Doorn & R. von Meijenfeldt, [Andre], p. 61-2
"Lacking the military" and "more confrontational policies."

EU soft power is key to solving climate change, WMD proliferation, terrorism, poverty and economic growth
Bildt, Swedish Minister for Foreign Affairs, 2007, The European Union's Soft Power, [Carl], p. http://www.ud.se/sb/d/7417/a/90906
"Again and again, we" and "India, China and Brazil."

Permutation undermines EU effectiveness
Nakhleh, Director of Political Islam Strategic Analysis Program at CIA, 2010, US-EU Partnership and the Muslim World, October, [Emile], p. http://www.thechicagocouncil.org/userfiles/file/task%20force%20reports/Trans-Atlantic_Papers_2-Nakhleh.pdf
"A key challenge facing" and "in those societies. (p.4)"

Perm undermines solvency - EU acting alone solves best
Fakhro 2009, The European Union and Islam, p. http://www.idea.int/resources/analysis/upload/Fakhro_low_2.pdf
"In the light of US hegemony" and "of the average Arab citizen."

US action trades-off with EU leadership - EU soft power is zero-sum
Berger, 2006, [Bernt], p. http://www.kas.de/wf/doc/kas_9537-1522-10-30.pdf?061123042647
"Conflicting interests and strategies" and "of the private sector."

Experts support comparing US versus EU approaches
Risse, Freie University of Berlin professor of international politics, 2009, Promoting Democracy and the Rule of Law, eds. by A. Magen, T. Risse, & M. McFaul, [Thomas], p. 247
"As a result, we can" and "with those of the US."

Pre-occupation With “How” We Persuade Destroys Deliberative Politics
Murray Bookchin, Institute For Social Ecology Director, Remaking Soceity, 89, p 163-5.
"Political activity and social" and "it on social level."

Refusal To Debate About Plans Surrenders Politics To Facism. Only Policy Debate Solves.
Richard Rorty, University Of Virginia Philosopher, Achieving Our Country: Leftist Thought In Twentieth-Century America, 1998, p. 76-107
"With this partial substitution of Freud" and "system we presently have."

Imagining What Policies Should Happen As Though You Were A Government Policy-Maker— Is Critical To Foreign Policy Making Through Public Reason - The Basis Of Peace Between Nations & Liberal Democracy
John Rawls, James Bryant Conant University Professor, Emeritus, Harvard University, The Law of Peoples, 1999, p 54-7
"Developing the Law of Peoples" and "peoples to accept it."

The use of language prevents any meaningful hope for a liberated space. Speaking cannot produce silence, it is only another tool of violence.

Derrida 02 (Jacques, director of studies at the École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales, “Cogito and the History of Madness” in the Postmodernism Reader, trans. Alan Bass, New York: Routledge, 2004. 95.)

By separating, within the Cogito

And

the adverse origin of philosophy.

Silence is the ultimate form of poetry

Larry J Solomon, 1998 (The Sounds of Silence: John Cage and 4'33", )

However, there is also an artistic and personal

AND 

what I'm saying, produces sound."

Baudrillard admits this solves

Douglas Kellner, 1994  (Baudrillard: A Critical Reader, p. 153,)

In capitalist or 'productive' societies

AND

sovereign lack of will, of secret ruse."

The resolution is a central point of stasis, necessary for effective discussions. In order to garner any education in debate there needs to be some predictability

Dr. Tim O'Donnell, Director of Debate at Mary Washington, 2004

(Blue Helmet Blues: United Nations Peacekeeping and the United States, Ed. Stefan Bauschard & Jean-Paul Lacy, , PhD at Pittsburgh)

The answer, I believe, resides deep

AND

gives the exchange a directed focus.

And the central focus of promoting stasis in debate is key. In a goal centered activity like debate when both teams are trying to win the ballot it is impossible to determine what relevance an argument has unless it meets the predictable standards the resolution mandates. Means even if their arguments are true they aren’t relevant in a goal centered activity like policy debate

Douglas Walton, Full Professor of Philosophy at the University of Winnipeg, 2004

(Relevance in Argumentation) pg. 169-170

The kind of relevance defined

AND

quite important in human communication. 

Predictability is the gold standard - it's the best internal link to education which is debate's only portable skill

Douglas Walton, Full Professor of Philosophy at the University of Winnipeg, 2004

(Relevance in Argumentation) pg. 126

Such matters of how a chain of arguments

AND

the problem that should be solved.

A. China-Russian military alliance is not forming now
Weitz, Hudson Institute, 2011, China-Russia relations and the United States: At a turning point? April 14, [Richard], p. http://en.rian.ru/valdai_op/20110414/163523421.html
"Since its founding" and "Russia's national defense"

B. Link

Opposition to US democracy promotion will increase Russia-China counter-balancing against the US
Ambrosio, North Dakota State political science professor, 2009, Authoritarian backlash: Russian resistance to democratization in the former Soviet Union, [Thomas], p. 163-4
"The sole instance where" and "violating these norms."

Arab Spring democratization is key to Russia-China using the SCO for counter-balancing
Assl, security analyst at Transnational Crisis Project, 2011, Shanghai Co-operation Council after a decade, June 22, [Nima Khorrami], p. http://heptagonpost.com/Assl/Shanghai_Cooperation_Council_After_a_Decade
"Led by China and Russia" and ""Arab Spring" in Central Asia."

C. Impact

SCO soft-balancing will lead to hard-military balancing by Russia-China, increasing the risk of superpower war
Oest & Toft, PH.D fellow and PhD. at the University of Copenhagen, 2007, The Shanghai Cooperation Organization - a Threat or Opportunity for Europe? [Kajsa Ji Noe; Peter], p. http://polsci.ku.dk/bibliotek/publikationer/2007/ap_2007_01.pdf/
"In more general terms, the" and "during the Cold War. (pp. 29-30)"

US-Russia conflict will go nuclear and result in the extinction of entire nations
McNamara, former Defense Secretary, & Blight, Brown University professor of international relations, 2001, Wilson's Ghost: Reducing the risk of conflict, killing and catastrophe in the 21st Century, [Robert; James], p. 175
"Like Wilson, we base" and "millions of their human"

Block Cards

Russia-China military alliance increases the risk of superpower war
Menges, former Hoover fellow and special assistant to the president for National Security Affairs, 2005, China: A Gathering Threat, [Constantine], p. 423-4
"There are a number of risks" and "unintended major wars happen."

Stronger China-Russian alliance will increase the risk of superpower conflict
Gray, University of Reading professor, 2005, American Behavioral Scientist, August, [Colin], p. 1620-1
"Those inter-state contentions" and "may be brewing."

SCO counter-balancing will reduce US hegemony
Chaulia, Professor and Vice Dean of the Jindal School of International Affairs, India, 2011, Asia Times, June 21, [Sreeram], p. "As has been the practice" and "and sharing intelligence"
"As has been the practice" and "and sharing intelligence"

Decline of US hegemony risks great power wars
Zhang, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace & Shi Columbia University, 2011, East Asia Forum, America's decline: A harbinger of conflict and rivalry, January 22, [Yuhan; Lin], p. http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/01/22/americas-decline-a-harbinger-of-conflict-and-rivalry/
"Over the past two decades" and "unrivalled US primacy."

A. US-Egyptian military relations are good now

Allam, 2011, McClatchy Washington Bureau, August 17, 2011, New U.S. ambassador faces cooler relations in Egypt, [Hanna], p. factiva

"Nabil Fahmy, a former" and "respect for Egyptian law.""

B. Link

US aid to unapproved NGOs will destroy US-Egyptian relations

Chick, 2011, Christian Science Monitor, Why Egypt is angry over $65 million in US democracy grants, August 12, [Kristen], p.factiva

"Amid a US campaign to support" and "for "purely internal reasons."

Increasing democratization will undermine relations with the Egyptian military

Martini & Taylor, RAND Corporation, 2011, Foreign Affairs, September-October, [Jeff; Julie], p. Academic OneFile

"Yet the United States' capacity" and "pressure to democratize."

C. Impact

US-Egyptian relations are key to US power projection and war fighting capabilities - the backbone of global leadership and US naval power

Wood, Defense writer for Politics Daily, 2011

[February 5, Politics Daily, [David], p.

"Also suddenly at risk" and "Iranian ballistic missiles"

Decline of US hegemony risks great power wars
Zhang, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace & Shi Columbia University, 2011, East Asia Forum, America's decline: A harbinger of conflict and rivalry, January 22, [Yuhan; Lin], p.
"Over the past two decades" and "unrivalled US primacy."

EU can do everything in Libya

Europa Sept. 1 2011 "Responding to the Challenge of Stabilisation in post-conflict Libya,"

In addition to its humanitarian assistance, the European Commission

AND

prepared together with the new Libyan authorities.

EU solves cred, expertise

Grant 11, Charles, Director of the Center for European Reform, "Policy Brief: A new neighborhood policy for the EU," March

Twenty years ago, the EU mobilised resources quickly

AND 

drawing these neighbours closer to the EU

EU best actor for Libya - comparative evidence

Zeidan 11 (Ali, Representative of the Libyan Society in Germany, "Europe in Dialogue: The Future of the Mediterranean: Which way for Europe and North Africa?"

What role should the European Union play in helping to build democratic and legal structures?

AND

Luxembourg could address Libya's lack of a banking system. 

EU leadership in Libya key – has the expertise and gets UN on board

Conley Sept. 1 (Heather, Senior Fellow and Director, Europe Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies, “Leading from the Front: Europe and the New Libya,” )

European activism in Libya is completely understandable

AND

working with which representatives of the TNC.

Neg:Boston College

Round #3  Tournament: Shirley

Vs Team: Kentucky KK

Judge: Sherry Hall

Off Case Args:

T rule of law not environmental issues

T substantial is 30%

EU CP

Politics (highway spending)

Pakistan Econ Aid Trade-off

Case Args:

Impact defense

Block Strategy:

CP

Pakistan

Both T args

Case

2nr Strategy:

CP

Pakistan

Case 

Bipartisanship support exists to pass the high bill in the Senate and House

Lochhead, November 10, 2011, The San Francisco Chronicle, [Carolyn], p. A11 factiva

“California Sen. Barbara Boxer won” and “solutions and encouraging compromise.”

Increasing democracy assistance destroys bipartisanship

Karmi, 2011, The National, August 2, “US argues over foreign aid policy along with its debt problem,” [Omar], p.

“With the same acrimony it has” and “worst possible outcomes.””

Highway infrastructure is key to the US economy

Schenendorf & Bell, Covington & Burling, 2011, Modernizing U.S. Surface Transportation System: Inaction Must not be an Option, [Jack; Elizabeth], p.

“Our national highway network is a critical driver” and “economic leader are at stake.”

US economy is key to hegemony

Nanto, CRS, 2011, Economics and National Security: Issues and Implications for U.S. Policy, January 4, [Dick], p.

“Traditionally the economy has entered” and “enabler and the constraint.”

Decline of US hegemony risks great power wars

Zhang, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace & Shi Columbia University, 2011, East Asia Forum, America's decline: A harbinger of conflict and rivalry, January 22, [Yuhan; Lin], p.

"Over the past two decades" and "unrivalled US primacy."

US security ties with Saudi Arabia prevent Russian-Saudi oil alliance - but Arab spring democratization could change this
Fang, Rice Political Science professor, 2012, New Alignments? The Geopolitics of gas and oil cartels and the changing Middle East, [Songying], p. http://bakerinstitute.org/publications/EF-pub-GasOilCartels-012312.pdf
"Specifically, our analysis shows" and "in the oil market."

Enhancing Middle East democracy causes the Saudis to allow Russia to join OPEC
Fang, Rice Political Science professor, 2012, New Alignments? The Geopolitics of gas and oil cartels and the changing Middle East, [Songying], p. http://bakerinstitute.org/publications/EF-pub-GasOilCartels-012312.pdf
"Finally, we considered an important" and "Russia to join OPEC."

Russia OPEC membership will decrease US leadership in the Middle East and Central Asia
Javendanfar, Middle East Economic and Political Analysis, 2009, Why Iran Wants Russia in OPEC, [Meir], p. http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2009/03/why_iran_wants_russia_in_opec.html
"Pro-western Ayatollah" and "sphere of influence."

US leadership in Central Asia is key to reducing terrorism, promoting democracy, and preventing Russian and Chinese aggression and control over energy resources
Dunn, 2009, Rethinking American Strategy in Central Asia, [Jonathan], p. http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA536080
"United States interests in Central Asia" and "Central Asian countries. (p.4-5)"

Russian influence in Central Asia causes oil wars that escalate into great power wars
Klare, professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College, 2008, [Michael, "The rise of the new energy world order,", p. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JD17Dj04.html]
"A growing risk of" and "its global distribution."

Democracy promotion by the US destroys the whole security alliance, causes a shift to Russia
Fang, Rice Political Science professor, 2012, New Alignments? The Geopolitics of gas and oil cartels and the changing Middle East, [Songying], p. http://bakerinstitute.org/publications/EF-pub-GasOilCartels-012312.pdf
"Moreover, the democratization of neighboring" and "with respect to Russia."

Russia in OPEC will boost world oil prices, harming the global economy
Wachman, 2008, The Observer, September 13, 2008, [Richard], p. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/sep/14/oil.mergersandacquisitions
"As if the prospect of a" and "with the cartel."

Jackson-Vanik will be repealed

Medstsky, February 23, 2012, The Moscow Times, [Anatoly], p. http://www.themoscowtimes.com/mobile/article/high-ranking-us-senator-talks-trade/453530.html

“A top U.S. Senator has strongly touted” and “repealing the amendment.”

Political capital is key to repealing Jackson-Vanik

Inside US Trade, January 13, 2012, p. http://www.cinpr.org.br/uploadAddress/INT130112%5B31775%5D.pdf

“The Obama administration is under” and “administration to do the same.”

PNTR key to US competitiveness

Dresen, Wilson, Center, February 7, 2012, Jackson-Vanik after Russia’s Accession to the WTO,  [F. Joseph], p. http://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/jackson-vanik-after-russia%E2%80%99s-accession-to-the-wto

“Once Russia’s parliament ratifies its” and “part of that global equation.””

Decline in US competitiveness causes protectionism

Smick, CEO of financial market advisory firm Johnson Smick Internatonal, Inc., 2008, The World is Curved: Hidden Dangers to the Global Economy, [David], p. 32

“Think of the unintended consequences” and “economic terror begins.”