Matthew Bartholomae & Ryan Folio

Plan: The United States Congress should substantially increase Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI) funding for Egypt and allow all Egyptian political parties to receive access to MEPI programs.

Advantage 1: the Brotherhood

First, The Muslim Brotherhood will win the November election
Saikal, Australian National University political science professor, August 11, 2011:
[Sydney Morning Herald, [Amin], p. http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/egypt-must-tough-it-out-on-the-often-rocky-road-to-revolution-20110810-1imnl.html, mrl]
“In Egypt, the balance of” and “dominance in Egyptian politics.”

Second, excluding the Muslim Brotherhood from participation in MEPI guarantees hostility against the US and Israel
Hamid, Brookings Institution, 2010:
[Democracy Journal, Winter, [Shadi, http://www.democracyjournal.org/pdf/15/Hamid.pdf, jj]
“Meanwhile, the Middle East Partnership” and “when it will be too late.” 

Third, the US must engage the Brotherhood before they take power to ensure cooperation
Hamid, 2011
[Foreign Affairs, May/June, Vol. 90,  Iss. 3,  p. 40-47, “The Rise of the Islamists: How Islamists Will Change Politics, and Vice Versa” p. 40+proquest]
“ There is no question that” and “are already in power.”

Fourth, engagement ensures the Brotherhood doesn’t adopt anti-Israel or anti-American policies
Hamid, 2011:
[Foreign Affairs, May/June, Vol. 90,  Iss. 3,  p. 40-47, “The Rise of the Islamists: How Islamists Will Change Politics, and Vice Versa” p. 40+proquest]
“During the uprisings, the protesters” and  “it should, and could. “

Fifth, engagement reduces the risk of the Brotherhood providing support to Hamas and Hezbollah
Daily News Egypt, July 1, 2011, Analysis: US overtures to Egypt Islamists show pragmatism
“More official, and more” and “Political and Strategic Studies.’

The impact of an unengaged Brotherhood will be a Middle East war. A Brotherhood controlled Egypt will supply Hamas with weapons, causing war with Israel.
Byman, Brookings Institution, 2011:
[Wall Street Journal, February 4, [Daniel], p. http://blogs.wsj.com/ideas-market/2011/02/04/egypt-2012-what-if-the-muslim-brotherhood-comes-to-power/]
“But the Brotherhood” and “spiral out of control.”

And this causes rapid escalation. Hamas will be emboldened with increased Egyptian support to attack Israel.
Rudin, Global Research in International Affairs Center Director, 2011:
[Jerusalem Post, March 27, Barry, p. http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Article.aspx?id=214073]
“With better weapons,” and “more eager to do so.”

This draws in the entire region and goes nuclear.
Oren, Shalem Center fellow, 2008,
[Washington Post, The Next Middle East War, Just a Rocket Away, March 2, Michael, p. B4]
“It begins with a” and “a single Qassam away.” 

Advantage 2: US Credibility 

First, U.S. credibility in the Middle East is plummeting now
Zogby, pollster, 2011,  “America in Trouble in the Middle East: Obama Understands, But GOP Gloats”, Huffington Post, 7-16,[James], p.  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/james-zogby/ameri ca-in-trouble-in-the_b_900649.html?ir=World)
“Well, the results” and “this year's survey.”

Second, increasing funding for the Middle East Partnership Initiative is key to reversing anti-Americanism among the Arab street
Dorsey, senior researcher at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute, 2011:
[“US Risks Missing Opportunity to Play Leading Role in Middle East Transition”, Al Arabiya News, 7-5,  [James], p. http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/07/05/156264.html]
“The ascendancy of” and “promote democratic change.”

Third, excluding Islamic parties from democracy assistance is a major cause of Muslim resentment against the US—it is perceived as an attempt to destroy Islam
Kull, director of the Program on International Policy Attitudes, 2011;
[Why Muslims are still mad at America, September 9, [Stephen], p. http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/05/why-muslims-are-still-mad-at-america/
“Trying to understand” and “undermine Islam itself.”

Fourth, engagement with the Muslim Brotherhood is vital to reclaiming support of the Arab Street and solving for the perception that the US always favors Israel over Arabs
Traub, New York Times Magazine contributing writer, 2008:
[The Freedom Agenda: Why America must spread Democracy (Just not the way George Bush did), James, p. 189]
“The United States does”from local turf.”

Anti-Americanism facilitates the recruitment and funding for terrorism
Kull, director of the Program on International Policy Attitudes, 2011:
[Why Muslims are still mad at America, September 9, [Stephen], p.]
http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/05/why-muslims-are-still-mad-at-america/
“On the ten-year” and “taking him out.”

Anti-Americanism increases the risk of WMD terrorism against the United States.
Leadership Group on U.S. Muslim Engagement, 2009, Changing Course: A New Direction for U.S. Relations with the Muslim World”, February, p. http://www.usmuslimengagement.org/storage/usme/documents/Changing_Course_Second_Printing.pdf
“Improving relations with” and “thousands or more. “

Zawahiri’s  goal is the acquisition of a nuclear bomb – risk of al Qaeda nuclear attack is high
Kanani, Editor of World Affairs Commentary, 2011:
Forbes, June 29,  [Rahim], p http://www.forbes.com/sites/rahimkanani/2011/06/29/new-al-qaeda-chief-zawahiri-has-strong-nuclear-intent/
“We should be especially” and “detailed and deliberate”

Nuclear terrorist attack against the US will cause global nuclear war
Alyson, Centre for Strategic Studies, University of Wellington, 2010:
[Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, July, [Robert], p. 584]
“Washington’s early response” and “a devastating response.”

And Mueller is wrong in dismissing the risk of nuclear terrorism as a 1 in one million risk
Zimmerman, Dept of War Studies, King’s College, 2009, Defence Against Terrorism Review, Fall,  [Peter], p. 4-5
“Mueller chooses another set “ and “by a gruesome death.”

Contention 1: Inherency

US policy towards the Muslim Brotherhood remains the same despite so-called dialogue. The US refuses to increase democracy assistance to the Muslim Brotherhood
Brown, George Washington Professor, 2011, States News Service, August 9, What Does the US Want to Talk to the Brotherhood About? [Nathan], p. factiva
"In a confusing set of statements" and "social and political actor."

Plan: The Unites States Congress should substantially increase Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI) funding for Egypt and allow all Egyptian political parties access to MEPI programs. 

The plan is an endorsement of non-violent pluralism – current U.S. democracy assistance conditions aid on opposition parties converting to Western notion of democratic values – by including the Muslim Brotherhood in U.S. democracy assistance the U.S. moves a away from a policy of forced regime change that promotes social engineering
Etzioni, university professor and professor of international relations at The George Washington University, [Amitai “Toward a Nonviolent, Pluralistic Middle East”, Middle East Quarterly, Vol. XVIII, No. 4, Fall 2011, p. http://www.meforum.org/3050/nonviolent-pluralistic-middle-east]
“"Illiberal moderate" also pertains to several” and “ how should we determine which qualify?”

Through inclusion of the Muslim Brotherhood the plan allows questioning of methods but still allows liberal values to create space for local choices  
Youngs, University of Warwick Professor and FRIDE Director, 2011 [Richard “Misunderstanding the Maladies of Liberal Democracy Promotion”, Working Paper 106, January 2011, p. http://www.fride.org/publication/884/misunderstanding-the-maladies-of-liberal-democracy-promotion] SM
“Clearly, more debate about” and “descent into relativism?”

Pluralism alone is critical to addressing numerous global issues threatening survival
Wenman, Lecturer in Political Theory, University of Nottingham 2003
(Mark, “What is Politics? The Approach of Radical Pluralism,” Politics, V. 23, Iss. 1)
“I have shown that the approach” and “there is plenty to be done.”

Solvency

U.S. exclusion of MB is a glaring contradiction in its promotion of true democracy – inclusion of MB signifies a radical break within the still lingering hypocritical rhetoric of the Bush Administration
Kadlec, MA candidate in International Affairs specializing in US foreign policy and democratizing states, 2009 [Amanda, “Democracy Promotion: The Case of the Muslim Brotherhood,” http://iar-gwu.org/node/55] SM
“Despite the difficulty of the task” and “democracy in the Middle East.”

The plan reflects Obama’s promise to support freedom over stability, funding through the MEPI helps support vibrant civil society groups and all forms of inclusion in Egypt
Dorsey, senior researcher at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute, 2011:
[“US Risks Missing Opportunity to Play Leading Role in Middle East Transition”, Al Arabiya News, 7-5,  [James], p. http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/07/05/156264.html]
“The ascendancy of Islamist groups” and “promote democratic change.” 

1AC Cards read at Vermont: 

US views the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt as antagonistic
Michael McFaul, Peter and Helen Bing Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and associate professor of political science at Stanford, Advancing Democracy Abroad: Why We Should and How We Can, 2010, p. 140
“Even the 2005 parliamentary elections” and “include recognition of Israel.”

The 1AC promotes a form of agonistic democracy promotion – which recognizes strengthens in liberal democracy, such as openness, but is critical of its universality
Johannes Jüde, School of Philosophy Munich, Paper prepared for the 3rd ECPR Graduate Conference held at the Dublin City University, “Agonistic Democracy – Agonistic Democracy Promotion?, 30 August – 1 September 2010, p. http://www.ecprnet.eu/databases/conferences/papers/632.pdf
“So both authors characterize politics” and “necessary as argued by Chopra and Hohe.57”

Agonism allows democracy to flourish without violence
Jonathan Murphy, Senior Lecturer in International Management at Cardiff Business School, ““Democracy? That’s so last year”: exploring the backlash against democracy promotion”, Paper presented to Critical Governance Studies conference, Warwick University, December 13 – 14 2010, p. http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/wbs/projects/orthodoxies/papers/101213_muphy_j.pdf
“Moving beyond instrumental reasons” and “institutional framework of democracy.”

The United States federal government should substantially increase its party development assistance for the Syrian National Council through the Turkish government.

Advantage One is Civil War

The Assad regime will eventually collapse – the only question is when, delaying US action solidifies the risk of civil war, US influence now creates the soft landing necessary for successful regime change 

Boot, Jeane J. Kirkpatrick Senior Fellow for National Security Studies, December 5, 2011 [Max, “Assad Must Go,” http://www.cfr.org/syria/assad-must-go/p26706] SM

{the realist case…otherwise lack}

We’ll isolate three scenarios

First, full blown civil war in Syria will enflame the entire region – instability will spillover inciting increased violence in other Middle Eastern countries that face sectarian divides

Yacoubian, senior program officer for the Middle East at the U.S. Institute of Peace, October 5, 2011 [Mona

http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/10/05/saving_syria_from_civil_war] SM

{As Syria's uprising … widespread chaos}

Second is Iran, Syria represents a golden opportunity to derail Iran’s regional hegemony – US acting in tandem with Turkey is critical to engineer this outcome – now is the key time

Ben-Meir, prof of IR @ NYU, November 28, 2011 [Alon, “Keystone Influence: Syria’s Arab Spring and The Race for Regional Hegemony,” - The Iranian] SM

{Conversely, Israel is the only regional … indirectly engineering such an outcome?}

An unchecked Iran will serve as a catalyst for nuclear war

Ben-Meir, prof of IR @ NYU, February 6, 2007 [Alon, “Realpolitik: Ending Iran’s Defiance,”

http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Security-Industry/2007/02/06/Realpolitik-Ending-Irans-defiance/UPI-69491170778058/] SM

{Feeling emboldened and unrestrained, … halting its nuclear program}

Third is CBWs, a Syrian civil war will allow terrorists to acquire CBWs and cause warring factions to use CBWs against their enemies

Elsner, Huffington Post, November 23, 2011, [Alan, p. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alan-elsner/syria-civil-war_b_1107502.html] JK

{As Syria teeters … of civilian casualties.}

Hezbullah will use CBWs to attack Israel

, . [Vol. 23, Issue. 12, p. proquest] JK

{Of greater concern … not ratified the CWC}

Syrian chemical weapons attack by Assad or terrorists will cause nuclear retaliation by Israel

Cordesman, Center for Strategic Studies Institute, 2006, [Anthony, “Arab-Israeli military forces in an era of asymmetric wars,” p. 370] JK

{Various experts have … prevent its recovery}

Israeli nuclear retaliation will cause global nuclear war and extinction

Morgan, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, 2009, [Dennis Ray, Futures, December, p. 685] JK

{Israeli leaders and Zionist … ecosphere as well}

U.S. aid through Turkey is key to unifying the Syrian National Council and enabling them to oust Assad

Ben-Meir, prof of IR @ NYU, November 28, 2011 [Alon, “Assad's Iranian Shadow - Future of Iran-led "resistance block" in jeopardy,” - The Iranian] SM

{The United States and … could involve Iran and Israel}

Political organizational support for the SNC is key to lead to a transition of power devoid of civil war

Maalouf, oversaw programs on democracy promotion for Freedom House, & Torbey, international lawyer and PhD candidate, 15 yrs+ experience in Contemporary Middle East Studies, December 16, 2011 [Marwan and Khattar, “Breaking the Stalemate in Syria,” http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/POMED-Policy-Brief_Maalouf.pdf - POMED] SM

{The situation in Syria … ongoing bloodshed and humanitarian crisis}

And, US-Turkey collaboration is vital, given Turkey’s lack of expertise in party building

Ülgen, visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels, December 2011, [Sinan, “From Inspiration to Aspiration – Turkey in the New Middle East,” Carnegie Foundation for International Peace – Carnegie Europe] SM

{The nature of political … of the Tunisian Islamists}

Advantage Two is U.S.-Turkey Relations

Although US-Turkey relations have improved, deeper engagement and cooperation is key to sustaining the long-term relationship

Kanat, Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA), December 25, 2011, [Kilic Bugra Sunday’s Zaman, http://www.sundayszaman.com/sunday/newsDetail_getNewsById.action?newsId=266628] JK

{With major changes … other geographical regions}

And, unilateralism by Turkey in its dealings with the Arab Spring will harm US-Turkey relations—joint democracy assistance is key to sustaining cooperation

Ülgen, visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels, December 2011, [Sinan, “From Inspiration to Aspiration – Turkey in the New Middle East,” Carnegie Foundation for International Peace – Carnegie Europe] SM

{The transformation …lasting success story}

Relations solve Middle East stability, terrorism, oil conflicts, and free trade, Iraq, Russia, Oil dependence
 Menon, Monroe J. Rathbone prof of IR, Lehigh University Fellow, New America Foundation and Wimbush, Director, Center for Future Security Strategies, Hudson Institute, March 2007 [Rajan and S. Enders, Hudson Institute: “Is the United States Losing Turkey?” ] SM

{If Turkey, …Turkey’s other neighbors}

Central Asian oil conflicts leads to regional arms races that escalate into great power wars
 Klare, professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College, 2008 [Michael, “The rise of the new energy world order,” ] SM

{A growing risk … control its global distribution}

Turkey supports collaborative democracy assistance toward Syria—they will say yes to the plan

Ignatius, staff writer for the Washington Post, December 7, 2011 [David, “U.S. and Turkey Find a Relationship that Works,” http://www.washingtonpost.com/david-ignatius/2011/02/17/ABXXcOJ_page.html] SM

{They are unlikely .. chiefly at Iran. }

And, Syria is a key test case for US-Turkey cooperation

, Lehigh University professor of international relations, April 26, 2011, [Henri, Turkey and the Arab Spring, p. http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2011/04/26/turkey-and-arab-spring/2s3

{And at the …  although certainly messy}

Collaborative democracy assistance will bolster US-Turkey relations

Kirisci, prof of PolySci @ Boğaziçi University, 2011, [Kemal, Insight Turkey, vol 13,  no. 2, [], p. 50 ] JK

{The craving for … a common strategy}

Plan: United States Congress should substantially increase Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI) funding for Egypt and allow all Egyptian political parties to receive access to MEPI programs.

The Freedom & Justice Party, the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood, won a plurality of seats in the Egyptian parliament

CNN, January 17, 2012, p. http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/17/world/africa/egypt-muslim-brotherhood/index.html

“Egypt's top political parties” and “former President Hosni Mubarak.”

The new Egyptian prime minister will be from the Freedom & Justice Party 

Washington Post, January 16, 2012, “Egypt's next parliament to be led by Islamist”,  p. http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/egypts-parliament-to-be-led-by-islamist/2012/01/16/gIQASabE3P_print.html

“Liberals and Islamists in Egypt” and “Muslim Brotherhood organization.”

And don’t buy the New York Times hype – US is not truly engaging with the Freedom & Justice Party – the “engagement” is just a couple of meetings and there is no coherent strategic dialogue occurring

Shadi Hamid, fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings, January 6, 2012, PBS FRONTLINE Interview, “Why Is America Reaching Out to Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood?”, p. http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/foreign-affairs-defense/revolution-in-cairo-foreign-affairs-defense/why-is-america-reaching-out-to-egypts-muslim-brotherhood/

“As the final results of Egypt’s” and “between the two sides historically.”

In addition, Congress won’t support any engagement with the Freedom & Justice Party, even if Obama tries

Talk Radio News Service, November 29, 2011, Is US Aid To Post-Election Egypt At Risk?

p. http://www.talkradionews.com/news/2011/11/29/is-us-aid-to-post-election-egypt-at-risk.html

“Hussein says the Obama administration” and “could be a significant obstacle.”

U.S. exclusion of the Freedom & Justice Party is a glaring contradiction in its promotion of democracy – inclusion signifies a radical break within the still lingering hypocritical rhetoric of the Bush Administration which promotes its own values instead of those of the Egyptian people

Kadlec, MA candidate in International Affairs specializing in US foreign policy and democratizing states, 2009 [Amanda, “Democracy Promotion: The Case of the Muslim Brotherhood,” http://iar-gwu.org/node/55] SM

“Despite the difficulty of the” democracy in the Middle East.”

This is especially true with the Freedom & Justice party -- the US patronizing views about what the Egyptian people should want is out of touch with reality

Shadi Hamid, fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings, January 6, 2012, PBS FRONTLINE Interview, “Why Is America Reaching Out to Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood?”, p. http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/foreign-affairs-defense/revolution-in-cairo-foreign-affairs-defense/why-is-america-reaching-out-to-egypts-muslim-brotherhood/

“Is the rise of the Salafis an” and “Brotherhood to a great extent. “

The plan is an endorsement of pluralism – current U.S. democracy assistance conditions aid on opposition parties converting to Western notion of democratic values – by including the Freedom & Justice Party in U.S. democracy assistance the U.S. moves away from a policy of forced regime change that promotes social engineering

Etzioni, university professor and professor of international relations at The George Washington University, [Amitai “Toward a Nonviolent, Pluralistic Middle East”, Middle East Quarterly, Vol. XVIII, No. 4, Fall 2011, p. http://www.meforum.org/3050/nonviolent-pluralistic-middle-east] PW

“"Illiberal moderate" also pertains to” and “should we determine which qualify?”

The plan reflects Obama’s promise to support freedom over security, funding through the MEPI helps support vibrant civil society groups and all forms of inclusion in Egypt

Dorsey, senior researcher at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute, 2011:

[“US Risks Missing Opportunity to Play Leading Role in Middle East Transition”, Al Arabiya News, 7-5,  [James], p. http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/07/05/156264.html]

“The ascendancy of Islamist groups” and “promote democratic change.”

Pluralistic engagement with the Freedom & Justice Party prevents armed conflict

Kiriakou, former senior investigator on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, December 12, 2011, Huffington Post, [John], p. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-kiriakou/john-kerry-egypt_b_1143980.html

“So what's in it” and “to not talk to them.”

Through inclusion of the Freedom & Justice Party in the plan allows questioning of methods but still allows liberal values to create space for local choices 

Youngs, University of Warwick Professor and FRIDE Director, 2011 [Richard “Misunderstanding the Maladies of Liberal Democracy Promotion”, Working Paper 106, January 2011, p. http://www.fride.org/publication/884/misunderstanding-the-maladies-of-liberal-democracy-promotion] SM

“Clearly, more debate about different” and “without descent into relativism?”  

US failures in democracy are reasons to promote it – only democracy can correct mistakes – the alternative is stagnation and conflict

Rosa Brooks, law professor at the Georgetown University Law Center, “Democracy Promotion: Done Right, A Progressive Cause”, Democracy: A Journal of Ideas, Issue 23, Winter 2012, p. http://www.democracyjournal.org/23/democracy-promotion-done-right-a-progressive-cause.php

“The events of the last year” and “to go badly wrong forever.”