A) Link
1) New spending for Middle East democracy assistance will be reallocated from economic support funds
Project on Middle East Democracy, 2011, Summary and Highlights of FY 11 Appropriations Act, April 17,
"Speaking on the wave" and "for other programming."

2) Civilian aid to Pakistan is funded by economic support funds
Susan Cornwell, Reuters, April 21, 2011, p. (accessed: 8-12-2011)
"The spending bill" and "the CRS says" 

3) Pakistan aid will be cut to fund new democracy initiatives
Americans for Democracy and Justice in Pakistan, March 7, 2011, Thomas Friedman’s Woeful Misunderstanding of Pakistani Politics,  p. 6-1-2011)
"Support for emerging" and "it is this."

B) Impact
1) Reducing US civilian aid to Pakistan will reduce cooperation on terrorism, spark political and economic instability and increase the risk of nuclear war with India
Pande, Hudson Institute, 2011, Federal News Service, Testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations Hearing - "Reassessing American Grand Strategy in South Asia." , July 26, [Aparna], p. factiva
"Over the years the" and "from a stable Pakistan." 

2) India-Pakistan nuclear war causes global extinction
Caldicott, Physicians for Social Responsibility, 2002, The New Nuclear Danger, p. xiii
"The use of Pakistani" and "life on earth."

A. Payroll tax extension will pass
Andrew Taylor, AP, October 11, 2011, p. http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2011/10/11/senate-republicans-vote-to-defeat-obamas-jobs-bill
"The White House appears" and "Social Security payroll tax"

B. Link

Increasing democracy assistance will burn Obama's political capital
Lancaster, 2008, George Bush's Foreign Aid: Transformation or Chaos? Chapter 2, p. http://www.cgdev.org/files/16085_file_Lancaster_WEB.pdf
"Now matter how much need" and "any major federal program."

Political capital is key to passing payroll tax extension
The Philadelphia Inquirer, September 8, 2011, p.factiva
"Given Republican opposition" and "Security financially sound."

C. Impact

Payroll tax extension is key to preventing a recession
Zandi, Chief Economist of Moody's Analytics, October 7, 2011, MSNBC: Intervew With Moddy's Chief Economist Mark Zandi, MSNBC, [Mark], p.factiva
"ZANDI: Well, Republican proposals" and "we'll likely go into recession."

US economic decline will cause a global depression, trade wars and shooting wars
Judis, Carnegie Endowment, 2011, The New Republic, August 8, [John], p. http://www.npr.org/2011/08/08/139080654/new-republic-a-lesson-from-the-great-depression
"What is at stake goes" and "over the next year."

Global economic decline increases the risk of World War III and global nuclear war
O'Donnell, 2009, Baltimore Examiner, "Will this recession lead to World War III?"
"One of the causes of" and "history repeats itself."

Uniqueness and link: Relations are low with Saudi Arabia but mendable – supporting Bahrain derails reconciliation

Ottaway 11 (Marina, Senior Associate Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment, “Bahrain: Between the United States and Saudi Arabia,” April 4, 2011, )

But U.S. concerns in dealing AND take precedence right now.  

Link: Bahrain is an existential threat to US-Saudi relations because it provides Iran with more power

International Crisis Group 11 (POPULAR PROTEST IN NORTH AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST (VIII):

BAHRAIN’S ROCKY ROAD TO REFORM, July , p. 21)

For reasons noted above, Saudi Arabia AND but not in Bahrain.

Impact: Deterioration of relations with the US leads Saudi Arabia to a nuclear sharing agreement with China

Lippmann August 5 (Thomas W. Lippman is a senior adjunct scholar at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, 2011, “Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear Policy,” SUSRIS, )

So let us suppose that Saudi Arabia’s AND  realm of possibility.  

Saudi prolif leads to fast regional prolif

Center for Contemporary Conflict 2004  (“Conference on WMD Proliferation in the Middle East: Directions and Policy Options in the New Century” )

James Russell from the Naval Postgraduate School AND to ensure U.S. engagement?

Rapid proliferation increases the risk of nuclear war in 5 ways—and the outbreak of a regional nuclear war in the Middle East is a 5 in 6 probability

Allison, Harvard JFK professor and Belfer Center Director, 2006:

(The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, Fall, Graham, p. 20-21)

Were a cascade of nuclear proliferation AND  regional nuclear war.