The United States federal government should substantially increase Expanded International Military Education and Training for the Arab Republic of Egypt.
Recent military-on-protestor violence proves status quo policy is failing and more democracy education is needed and succeeds
McKelvey 10-13-2011
Tara McKelvey, a frequent contributor to The New York Times Book Review, is the author of Monstering: Inside America's Policy of Secret Interrogations and Torture in the Terror War (Basic Books). “U.S.-Funded Democracy Crushers?” http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/10/13/egyptian-military-u-s-funded-democracy-crushers.html
A few short months ago, Egyptian soldiers were ……..and their institution has been a sound one.
Advantage 1 is Economy
Egypt’s economy is on the verge of bankruptcy because of capital flight.
Goldman 11
(David P., economist, 5/10, “The Hunger to Come in Egypt” http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/ME10Ak01.html)
The country's foreign exchange reserves …….. of, well, biblical proportions.
E-IMET is key to CMR reform and capital inflow.
Henry and Springborg 11
(Clement professor of government and middle east studies at the University of Texas at Austin, and Robert, professor of national security affairs at the naval post graduate school and program manager for the middle east at the Center for Civil-Military Relations, “A Tunisian Solution for Egypt’s Military, Foreign Affairs Online, February 21, 2011, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67475/clement-m-henry-and-robert-springborg/a-tunisian-solution-for-egypts-military?page=show)
But Egypt faces dire ……. Cairo’s January 25 movement: “Tunisia is the solution.”
Democratic reform prevents unsustainable capital inflow.
Time 7
(“Curing the Dutch Disease.” http://www.time.com/time/specials/2007/article/0,28804,1720049_1722077_1722426,00.html)
The key is governance. Yes, ……. investment regimes. Enforced laws against corruption are basic.
Egyptian economic collapse creates unexpected oil shocks and global economic collapse.
Schuman 11
(Michael, TIME Magazine, 2/2, “Does the turmoil in Egypt threaten the global recovery?” http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/02/02/does-the-turmoil-in-egypt-threaten-the-global-recovery/#ixzz1TT6k4O6d)
With its control over the Suez Canal, ……... Egypt could prove to be just such an unwelcome surprise
Economic decline causes protectionism and global war.
Royal 10
(Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction – U.S. Department of Defense, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises”, Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, Ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215)
As such, exogenous shocks such as ……. fabricate external military conflicts to create a 'rally around the flag' effect.
Protectionism escalates to nuclear war
Panzner 8
(faculty at the New York Institute of Finance, 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets who has worked in New York and London for HSBC, Soros Funds, ABN Amro, Dresdner Bank, and JPMorgan Chase Michael, Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse, Revised and Updated Edition, p. 136-138, googlebooks)
The rise in isolationism and ….. rise to full-scale military encounters, often with minimal provocation.
Middle East war causes CBW attacks.
Russell 9
(James A. is managing editor of Strategic Insights, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at NPS, From 1988-2001 held a variety of positions in the Office of the Assistant Secretary Defense for International Security Affairs, Near East South Asia, Department of Defense, Spring 2009 “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” http://www.analyst-network.com/articles/141/StrategicStabilityReconsideredProspectsforEscalationandNuclearWarintheMiddleEast.pdf
Strategic stability in the region is ……, or nuclear weapons.
Chemical weapons attack causes extinction
Goessl 10
[Leigh Goessl, “Stephen Hawking warns of necessary escape from Earth to avoid human extinction”, 8-11, http://www.helium.com/items/1919350-stephen-hawking-warns-of-necessary-escape-from-earth-to-avoid-human-extinction]
Over the last several years Hawking has painted a few ….. the control of humans on Earth.
Bioweapons attack causes extinction
Sandberg 8
[Anders Sandberg, Jason G. Matheny, and Milan M. Ćirković | 9 September 2008, 2008 Research Fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University, Anders, How can we reduce the risk of human extinction?, http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/features/how-can-we-reduce-the-risk-of-human-extinction]
The risks from anthropogenic hazards appear at present larger …….. continue to improve at a rate rivaling Moore's Law.
Advantage 2 is Leadership
U. S. has all but abdicated leadership in the Mideast
David Amess UPI Outside View Commentator July 6, 2011 "Arab Spring needs Iranian Summer to survive" UPI http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Analysis/Outside-View/2011/07/06/Outside-View-Arab-Spring-needs-Iranian-Summer-to-survive/UPI-10751309954560/?spt=hs&or=an
Now as Western leaders continue to ….. assist their democratic opposition movement.
Status quo democracy assistance looks like attempts to undermine the Egyptian regime and sparks backlash
POMED 8/11/11
("WSJ: “Egypt Rulers Stoke Xenophobia”," Project on Middle East Democracy, http://pomed.org/blog/2011/08/wsj-egypt-rulers-stoke-xenophobia.html)
Egypt is backlashing against US ….. until they can “close the gates of hell.”
First Internal Link is allies
Military-to-military training like E-IMET strengthens allies and allows the United States to transition to reliance on allies in key regions
Mitchell and Nelson 11
(Daniel D. Mitchell and Michael D. Nelson, "ACCOMPLISHING AMERICAN STRATEGIC GOALS IN THE MIDDLE EAST THROUGH PERSISTENT SPECIAL OPERATIONS," June, NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL, http://edocs.nps.edu/npspubs/scholarly/theses/2011/June/11Jun_Mitchell.pdf)
The Middle East is of critical importance to United States‘ ….. in a manner that maximizes U.S. opportunities.
Transition to mulitpolar world is inevitable – plan prevents transition wars and preserves U.S. influence
Walton 7 Lecturer in International Relations and Strategic Studies at the University of Reading in Reading, England, 07 [Dale C, “geopolitics and the great powers in the twenty-first century”, http://books.google.com/books?id=AQLTD1R-47AC&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_navlinks_s#v=onepage&q=&f=false
Although international political conditions surely will differ ….. minimize the probability of’ a great power war.
Second Internal link is CMR -
Poor Egyptian CMR destroys US-Egypt relations and US regional leadership.
Cook 9
Steven. Directed the Council-sponsored Independent Task Force on U.S. policy toward reform in the Arab world, fluent in Arabic, works for CFR. “Political Instability in Egypt” Council on Foreign Relations i.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/CPA_contingencymemo_4.pdf
The military’s intervention would ……. United States and Israel.
Military relations are key - military determines Egypt’s decision-making.
Krieg 11
(Andreas Krieg, PhD, King’s College London, War Studies Department / Department of Defence Studies, "EGYPTIAN CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS AND EGYPT’S POTENTIAL TRANSITION TO DEMOCRACY," PiCA - A Global Research Organization, http://www.thepicaproject.org/?page_id=760)
While only a few commentators have …… political power to a society that has never been of great concern.
Loss of US regional leadership causes global nuclear war.
Leigh & Vuković 10
(Prof. Dr. James Leigh, Professor at the University of Nicosi and Predrag Vuković, Research Assistant at the University of Nicosia, Vol. LXII, br. 1, str. 7-36, "POTENTIAL IRANIAN HEGEMONY IN OIL PRODUCING ISLAMIC COUNTRIES – IMPLICATIONS FOR OIL GEOPOLITICS," http://www.doiserbia.nb.rs/img/doi/0025-8555/2010/0025-85551001007L.pdf)
The US Policy of the new Obama administration ….. host of dramatic world events and trends.
Hegemonic decline is zero sum- causes global great-power war, collapses trade and spreads economic nationalism and protectionism
Zhang & Shi 11 – Yuhan Zhang, researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Lin Shi, Columbia University, independent consultant for the Eurasia Group and consultant for the World Bank, January 22, 2011, “America’s decline: A harbinger of conflict and rivalry,” East Asia Forum, online: http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/01/22/americas-decline-a-harbinger-of-conflict-and-rivalry/
Over the past two decades, no other state has had the ability …..t, is one possibility we can forecast in a future that will inevitably be devoid of unrivalled US primacy.
Absent US power America will be forced to re-intervene but under unfavorable circumstances – true isolationism is a pipe dream
Kagan ‘11
Robert., contributing editor to The Weekly Standard and a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution. "The Price of Power" Jan 24 Vol 16 No18 www.weeklystandard.com/articles/price-power_533696.html
Even if we were to repeat the policies of the 1930s, ……matters of national security, can prove so unfortunate?
And terrorism
Focusing on respect for civil society and rule of law encourages bilateral intelligence sharing
Rosenbach ‘8
Eric Rosenbach is the executive director of the Belfer Center for International Affairs at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. He formerly served as a professional staff member on the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. As a commander in the United States Army, Rosenbach earned the Meritorious Service Medal, and his unit was named the top intelligence organization in the military for two consecutive years. “The Incisive Fight: Recommendations for Improving Counterterrorism Intelligence” 618 Annals 133. July 2008.
Increase bilateral cooperation Despite ……. accomplish our national security goals.
An effective intelligence community prevents and deters bioterrorist attacks
Mayer 95
Lt Col Terry N. Mayer, USAF. “The Biological Weapon: A Poor Nation’s Weapon of Mass Destruction” http://www.airpower.au.af.mil/airchronicles/battle/chp8.html
Biological terrorism is a challenge for the …..who are the haves and have nots.
Bioweapons attack would destroy key biodiversity reservoirs– the most at-risk populations are located near potential targets and escalates to extinction
Dudley and Woodford 02
[Joseph P. (consultant on military environmental and conservation policy issues with Versar, Inc., Springfield, VA, and a research associate at the Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska) Michael H. Woodford (fellow of the Royal College of Veterinary Surgeons, London, and chair of the Working Group on Wildlife Diseases at the Office International des Epizooties.) “Bioweapons, Biodiversity, and Ecocide: potential effects of biological weapons on biological diversity.” BioScience 52.7 (July 2002): Ebscohost. Accessed 1/19/2011.]
Efforts to control human disease epidemics ….. of deliberate or inadvertent human activities.
Solvency
Current US assistance to Egypt’s military incentivizes crackdowns.
Bermeo 10
Nancy. Professor of Comparative Politics, Nuffield College, UK. “Democracy Assistance and the search for Security.” In New Challenges to Democratization. Edited by Peter Burnell and Richard Youngs. 2010. Routledge. Pgs. 83
Anti-democratic actors have the capacity …. the costs of repression and abuse.
Military crackdowns destroy CMR.
Ottaway 8-10
(Marina, "Transitional Failure in Egypt and Tunisia," National Interest, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/transitional-failure-egypt-tunisia-5736)
Governance cannot be in abeyance forever. ….. the guarantor of Egyptian democracy
Increasing E-IMET reforms assistance to military by shifting focus to democracy.
Cook 9
Steven. Directed the Council-sponsored Independent Task Force on U.S. policy toward reform in the Arab world, fluent in Arabic, works for CFR. “Political Instability in Egypt” Council on Foreign Relations i.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/CPA_contingencymemo_4.pdf
A strategy that sought to promote ….. participation of additional Egyptian officers.
E-IMET is key to CMR reform
Reynolds 3
(Dr. Ron Reynolds began service as the DISAM Commandant after retiring from the Air Force after 25 years of service. His international training background comes as a result of serving for two years as a Training Security Assistance Officer with the United States Military Training Mission, Saudi Arabia, followed by three years at the International Officer School, Air University, Maxwell Air Force Base, "Is Expanded International Military Education and Training Reaching the Right Audience?," Defense Institute of Security Assistance Management, The DISAM Journal, Spring 2003)
In short, it does appear that E-IMET…… opportunity for further research
Military will accept the plan.
Martini and Taylor 8-25
Jeffrey Martini is a Middle East research project associate at the RAND Corporation, where he works on political reform in the Arab world with a specific focus on North Africa and Julie E. Taylor is a political scientist at the RAND Corporation. Her research focuses on the Middle East, insurgencies, and nation-building August 25, 2011 “Commanding Democracy in Egypt:
Since then, by carefully cultivating and protecting its own mythology, ….. the international community if they truly liberalize.
