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The first advantage is Civil War
NTC’s lack of credible commitment to democratization puts Libya on the brink of civil war
POMED 1-19-12 (Libya’s Fighting Between Rivals Militias Goes On, http://pomed.org/blog/2012/01/libyas-fighting-between-rivals-militias-goes-on.html)
Last week, 9 people were killed in
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it of a number of his longtime lieutenants.
Democratic governance aid reduces the risk of civil war because it makes the NTC seem credibly committed to democratization.
Savun and Tirone 11 (Burcu Savun is Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Pittsburgh, Daniel C. Tirone is a Ph.D. Candidate in the Department of Political Science, University of Pittsburgh, “ Foreign Aid, Democratization, and Civil Conflict: How Does Democracy Aid Affect Civil Conflict,” American Journal of Political Science,” Volume 55, Issue 2, pages 233–246, April 2011)
More generally, democratization increases the risk of
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about the new regime's ability to govern fairly.
US technical assistance for democratic governance aid for Libya bolsters US leadership in Libya, pushes out negative influences and stops civil war.
Engel 11 (11-2, Andrew Engel, a former research assistant at The Washington Institute, is a Beirut-based analyst who recently traveled across Libya, Libya's Post-Qadhafi Challenges, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, PolicyWatch #1866, )
At this moment of flux, the United
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state over a democratic state with Islamic values.
Libyan civil war spills over.
Waddington 12-19-11 I'm currently pursuing a PhD through the University of Johannesburg. My thesis examines the role of resource scarcity, specifically water, in shaping normative approaches to contemporary and future warfare. I completed an MA at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, examining the potential role(s) of private military and security contractors in peacekeeping activities. I taught various business ethics related courses for the School of Management Studies at UKZN from 2005 to 2011,
The National Transitional Council that currently governs
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to emulate AQIM and Al Shabaab.(14)
MANPADS proliferation is a distinct probability
Wilner 11 (Alex, Senior Researcher at ETH-Zurich and a Macdonald-Laurier Institute Fellow, “Halting al Qaeda’s African rebound”, Troy Media, 11-30-2011, http://www.troymedia.com/blog/2011/11/30/halting-al-qaeda%E2%80%99s-african-rebound-part-3/)
For AQIM, Libya poses a unique opportunity
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blind” heat-seeking missiles with lasers.
Libya civil war destabilizes the Sinai
Tarnopolsky 11 Noga, Global Post, “Libya's missing weapons being smuggled into Gaza”, 10-8,
Victoria Nuland, a spokesperson for the
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to about this right now,” he said.
Nuclear war
Zitun 11 9-5, staff writer, quoting Senior IDF officer
IDF general: Likelihood of regional war
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possibility of weapons of mass destruction being used."
Libya civil war destabilizes South Sudan
Waddington 12-19-11 I'm currently pursuing a PhD through the University of Johannesburg. My thesis examines the role of resource scarcity, specifically water, in shaping normative approaches to contemporary and future warfare. I completed an MA at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, examining the potential role(s) of private military and security contractors in peacekeeping activities. I taught various business ethics related courses for the School of Management Studies at UKZN from 2005 to 2011,
To date, reports have surfaced in the
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Ethiopian and Kenyan cross-border security efforts.
Goes regional
National Post 11 9-27,
Africa’s longest-running civil war —
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international actors are not able to contain it.”
Nuclear war
Glick 7 Caroline Glick, deputy managing editor of The Jerusalem Post, Senior Fellow for Middle East Affairs of the Center for Security Policy, “Condi's African holiday”, December 11, http://www.rightsidenews.com/20071211309/editorial/us-opinion-and-editorial/our-world-condis-african-holiday.html
The Horn of Africa is a dangerous and
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conflagrations between competing regional actors and global powers.
Libyan civil war spills over to Western Sahara through weapons to Polisario
PR Newswire 11-10-11
Dr. J. Peter Pham, director
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Niger, Mali, and especially Algeria. "
Polisario violence spills over to jack the global phosphate supply
Pearce 11 6-7, Fred Pearce is a freelance author and journalist based in the UK. He serves as environmental consultant for New Scientist magazine and is the author of numerous books, including When The Rivers Run Dry and With Speed and Violence. In previous articles for Yale Environment 360, Pearce has written about the environmental consequences of humankind’s addiction to chemical fertilizers and about how agribusiness threatens a critical African wildlife migration.
If you wanted to really mess with
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to mine the rock — or we starve.
Loss of phosphorous access threatens food production.
Cordell 11 (4-4. Dana, Tom Lindström, and Stuart White; is a Research Principal at the at the University of Technology Sydney where she undertakes and leads research projects on sustainable resource futures. She co-founded the ; is a theoretical ecologist, working as a postdoctoral researcher at the Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology (IFM) at Linköping University in Sweden. Currently, he is currently a Visiting Fellow at the School of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Science, at the University of New South Wales in Australia.; is Director of the at the University of Technology Sydney where he leads a team of researchers who create change towards sustainable futures through independent, project-based research. He co-founded the ; Peak phosphorus: the crunch time for humanity; http://www.thesustainabilityreview.org/2011/04/peak-phosphorus-the-crunch-time-for-humanity/; The Sustainability Review; April 4, 2011; Issue II, Research, Volume II; Accessed 10/23/11 3:31:08 PM - BEW)
The element phosphorus underpns our ability to produce
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, Australia and the European Union more vulnerable.
Food scarcity causes global war.
Blas 8 [8-15, Javier, Commodities correspondent for the Financial Times, The National Interest, ]
FOOD. MAN'S most-essential resource.
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and government-destroying conflict may become commonplace.
Extinction
Klare 6 (Peace and World Security Studies-Hampshire College, )
"As famine, disease, and weather
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will escape involvement in these forms of conflict.