Plan
The United States federal government should substantially increase its technical assistance for democratic governance for Libya.
Solvency
Libya wants US democracy aid – nobody else can solve.
Hamid 10-1 Shadi Hamid, 10/1/11, What Obama and American Liberals Don’t Understand About the Arab Spring, http://www.tnr.com/article/environment-energy/95538/arab-spring-obama-realism-democracy-neoconservatives-mubarak?page=0,0
Throughout the Arab spring, … in particular, the United States.
Civil War
Advantage One is Civil War
US should increase democratic governance aid for Libya – the plan bolsters US influence in Libya and prevents civil war.
Engel 11-2-11 (Andrew Engel, a former research assistant at The Washington Institute, is a Beirut-based analyst who recently traveled across Libya, Libya's Post-Qadhafi Challenges, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, PolicyWatch #1866, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3417)
Libya's challenges are immense, … over a democratic state with Islamic values.
Democracy assistance boosts regime credibility and reduces civil conflict – studies prove.
Savun and Tirone 11 (Burcu Savun is Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Pittsburgh, Daniel C. Tirone is a Ph.D. Candidate in the Department of Political Science, University of Pittsburgh, “ Foreign Aid, Democratization, and Civil Conflict: How Does Democracy Aid Affect Civil Conflict,” American Journal of Political Science,” Volume 55, Issue 2, pages 233–246, April 2011)
Scholars of intrastate conflict … during the early phases of democratization.
Libya’s on the brink of civil war – NTC legitimacy is key to restore stability.
Reuters 12 (1-4, Libyan militias could plunge country into civil war: NTC chairman, http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/01/04/libyan-militias-could-plunge-country-into-civil-war-ntc-chairman/)
Libya risks sliding into … on to their weapons.”
US democracy aid is key to stabilize Libya
Vandewalle 11 (Dirk, Dartmouth College, “The Reconstruction of Libya Local and International Constraints and Opportunities,” Testimony before the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, 6 April, 2011, http://foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Vandewalle%20Testimony.pdf)
Assuming the outcome of the …of a future, democratic Libya.
Libyan civil war spills over to Algeria
Simon Tisdall 9-28, assistant editor of the Guardian, “Aqim escalates the violence in Algeria – helped by Libya's war”, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/sep/28/aqim-violence-algeria-libya
A sharp surge in terrorist … spanning the continent.
Libyan civil war causes Algerian instability and massive oil shocks – collapses the global economy.
Stelzer 11 (Irwin M., Contributing editor to The Weekly Standard, director of economic policy studies at the Hudson Institute, and a columnist for the Sunday Times (London), 3/7, “A Libyan Oil Shock?”, http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/libyan-oil-shock_552544.html?page=2)
Even though it is … a disproportionately large effect on inflationary expectations.
Libyan oil production can never recover – fields are destroyed
Michael Lynch 8-29, oil and gas consultant, https://www.gplus.com/crude%20oil/insight/libyan-crude-oil-production-recovery-will-be
Recently, months of fighting … on crude oil prices again.
Saudi Arabia is tapped out – massively raises the risk of an oil shock
Staniford 11 (Stuart, scientist and innovator in the technology industry, with a broad range of interests and experiences. I have a Physics PhD, MS in CS, and have done research, lived in cohousing communities, run a business, and designed technology products. Professionally, I mainly work on computer security problems and am currently Chief Scientist at FireEye, 4/21/2011, “Disquieting Saudi Oil Indicators and the Next Oil Shock”, http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2011/04/disquieting-saudi-oil-indicators-and.html)
There are a growing … 2011 are now quite good.
The newest study proves a shock is the biggest, fastest route to collapse
Sandra Erwin 11-1, editor of National Defense Magazine, “30% Cut in U.S. Oil Imports Would Avert Future Catastrophe, Study Warns”, http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/blog/Lists/Posts/Post.aspx?ID=577
Unless the United States … would be nearly zero.
Extinction
Kemp 10
Geoffrey Kemp, Director of Regional Strategic Programs at The Nixon Center, served in the White House under Ronald Reagan, special assistant to the president for national security affairs and senior director for Near East and South Asian affairs on the National Security Council Staff, Former Director, Middle East Arms Control Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2010, The East Moves West: India, China, and Asia’s Growing Presence in the Middle East, p. 233-4
The second scenario, called Mayhem …two-thirds of the planet’s population.
Cred
Advantage Two is Cred
Leading from behind in Libya diminishes perception of US influence – taking the lead solves.
Paul Wolfowitz 11-3, former United States Ambassador to Indonesia, U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense, President of the World Bank, and former dean of the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University. He is currently a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, “America's Opportunity in Libya”, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204394804577011721031265512.html
But the failure of the U.S. … price if we do nothing.
US burden sharing in Libya sends a signal of weakness and emboldens enemies.
Hulett 11 (9-3, Sue, Richard P. and Sophia D. Henke Distinguished Professor of Political Science and chair of the Political Science Department at Knox College, 2011, “Sue Hulett: Has Obama abandoned global leadership?”, http://www.galesburg.com/newsnow/x1638741805/Sue-Hulett-Has-Obama-abandoned-global-leadership)
We also know a bit …. promoting democracy and liberty.
Democratic governance aid to Libya is the litmus test for US influence.
Ghitis 11 (8-25, Frida, independent commentator on world affairs and a World Politics Review contributing editor, 2011, “World Citizen: Libya Emerges as Major Test of Western, U.S. Influence”, http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:ckDLwiX-isgJ:www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/9882/world-citizen-libya-emerges-as-major-test-of-western-u-s-influence+World+Citizen:+Libya+Emerges+as+Major+Test+of+Western,+U.S.+Influence&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-a&source=www.google.com)
The future of Libya was … friendly to the West.
Leading from behind in Libya sends signal of weakness to Iran
Singh 11 (Managing Director-The Washington Institute, 8/31/11, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1706)
The disadvantages, however, … with deeply troubling implications.
Perception of US weakness causes Iran aggression.
Alterman 11 Jon Alterman 11, director and senior fellow of the Middle East Program at CSIS, Former member of the Policy Planning Staff at the U.S. Department of State and as a special assistant to the assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, June 2011, “Capacity and Resolve: Foreign Assessments of U.S. Power,” http://csis.org/files/publication/110613_Cohen_CapacityResolve_Web.pdf
Whatever the actual cost, … of actions and statements.
US influence in Libya is litmus test to contain Iran.
Cohen 11 (Craig, vice president for Research and Programs at CSIS and editor of this volume, serves as principal adviser to CSIS president, June, “Capacity and Resolve: Foreign Assessments of U.S. Power,” http://csis.org/files/publication/110613_Cohen_CapacityResolve_Web.pdf)
This study finds that citizens of … for decades to come.
Iran aggression causes war
Lynch 11 Marc Lynch 11, associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, “Upheaval: U.S. Policy Toward Iran in a Changing Middle East”, June, http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Upheaval_Lynch_2.pdf
As it struggles to recalibrate …and game-changing war.
Iran war causes CBW attacks and global nuclear war
Blake 11 (Heidi Blake, WikiLeaks: tension in the Middle East and Asia has 'direct potential' to lead to nuclear war, The Telegraph, Feb 2, 2011, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8298427/WikiLeaks-tension-in-the-Middle-East-and-Asia-has-direct-potential-to-lead-to-nuclear-war.html)
Tension in the Middle East … or absorbed through the skin.
Middle East nuclear war causes extinction.
Hoffman 6
(Ian Hoffman, Staff Writer, December 12, 2006, “Nuclear Winter Looms, experts say”, MediaNews Group, Inc. and ANG Newspapers)
Researchers at the American … initial blasts and radiation.
Chemical weapons attack causes extinction
Goessl 10
[Leigh Goessl, “Stephen Hawking warns of necessary escape from Earth to avoid human extinction”, 8-11, http://www.helium.com/items/1919350-stephen-hawking-warns-of-necessary-escape-from-earth-to-avoid-human-extinction]
Over the last several years … of humans on Earth.
Bioweapons attack causes extinction
Sandberg 8
[Anders Sandberg, Jason G. Matheny, and Milan M. Ćirković | 9 September 2008, 2008 Research Fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University, Anders, How can we reduce the risk of human extinction?, http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/features/how-can-we-reduce-the-risk-of-human-extinction]
The risks from anthropogenic … rate rivaling Moore's Law.
Even if the disease doesn’t cause extinction it will trigger US nuclear response
Conley 03
(Harry W., chief of the systems analysis Branch, Directorate of Requirements, Air and Space Power Journal- Spring 2003- http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj03/spr03/conley.html
The number of American …promises had been made.”48
US retaliation causes global nuclear war
Speice 06
JD Candidate @ College of William and Mary [Patrick F. Speice, Jr., “NEGLIGENCE AND NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION: ELIMINATING THE CURRENT LIABILITY BARRIER TO BILATERAL U.S.-RUSSIAN NONPROLIFERATION ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS,” William & Mary Law Review, February 2006, 47 Wm and Mary L. Rev. 1427]
The potential consequences … use of nuclear weapons. 53
Only US influence prevents Iran war – nobody else can solve.
Freeman 6/12/11 Freeman, C. W. (2011), The Arab Reawakening: Strategic Implications. Middle East Policy, 18: 29–36. doi: 10.1111/j.1475-4967.2011.00482.x Charles W. ("Chas") Freeman, Jr. (born 1943) is an American diplomat, author, and writer. He has served for the State and Defense Departments in many different capacities in the past thirty years,[1] with the Washington Report on Middle East Affairs calling his career "remarkably varied". He most notably worked as the main interpreter for Richard Nixon in his 1972 China visit and as the United States Ambassador to Saudi Arabia from 1989 to 1992, where he dealt with issues related to the Persian Gulf War.[2] He is a past president of the Middle East Policy Council, co-chair of the U.S. China Policy Foundation, and vice-chair of the Atlantic Council.[3]
These changes are … others in countering it.
Evarky GAdvantage is Egypt Economy
Egyptian economy will collapse by the end of 2011 because of capital flight.
Arab Times 11
(“When will Egypt go Broke?” July 23, 2011, )
A May 19 report by the Middle East News Agency,…capital flight, and the fog of war is thickened by wild assertions.
Egyptian economic turmoil causes unexpected oil shocks and global economic catastrophe.
Schuman 11
(Michael, TIME Magazine, 2/2, “Does the turmoil in Egypt threaten the global recovery?” http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/02/02/does-the-turmoil-in-egypt-threaten-the-global-recovery/#ixzz1TT6k4O6d)
At first glance, the upheaval on the Nile might … could prove to be just such an unwelcome surprise
One more economic shock will cause economic decline.
Evans-Pritchard 8/7/11
(Ambrose, "The world runs out of options," Telegraph, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8687496/The-world-runs-out-of-options.html)
This time we face the risk …This is a destructive trade-off.
Economic decline causes global war.
Royal 10
(Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction – U.S. Department of Defense, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises”, Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, Ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215)
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline … conflicts to create a 'rally around the flag' effect.
Suez closure causes US intervention and nuclear war
Nazemroaya 11
(Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya, Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), February, 13, 2011, “THE DIVISION OF EGYPT: THREATS OF US, ISRAELI, AND NATO MILITARY INTERVENTION?” http://www.setyoufreenews.com/2011/02/division-of-egypt-threats-of-us-israeli.html)
Recall the 1956 Invasion of Egypt? … militarism overseas and domestic militarization.
Increasing military education in Egypt is key to attract foreign direct investment.
Henry and Springborg 11
(Clement professor of government and middle east studies at the University of Texas at Autstin, and Robert, professor of national security affairs at the naval post graduate school and program manager for the middle east at the Center for Civil-Military Relations, “A Tunisian Solution for Egypt’s Military, Foreign Affairs Online, February 21, 2011, )
But Egypt faces dire economic conditions, … inciting Cairo’s January 25 movement: “Tunisia is the solution.”
Military aid provided by the plan key to save the economy
Korski 11
(Daniel, European Council on Foreign Relations, “Without Mlitary Reform Egypt cannot democratize,” 7-5, )
Military reforms are necessary for several reasons…longer be bought through the comfortable kleptocracy of Military Inc.
Military crackdowns fuel further unrest – Egypt’s becoming more instable.
Ottaway 8/10/11 (Marina, "Transitional Failure in Egypt and Tunisia," National Interest, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/transitional-failure-egypt-tunisia-5736)
Governance cannot be in abeyance …make the military the guarantor of Egyptian democracy
Increasing military education is key to enhance Egypt’s CMR and prevent crackdowns.
Feldman 11 Noah. ArabianBusiness.com July 26, 2011 Tuesday “Don't let the Egyptian army follow Caesar's script” Bloomberg. Lexis.
The bottom line is that the military as an institution …including the US, should realise it too.
External credibility makes internal violence less probable
Savun and Tirone 11 [Burcu Savun is Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Pittsburgh and, Daniel C. Tirone is a Ph.D. Candidate in the Department of Political Science, University of Pittsburgh, “Foreign Aid, Democratization, and Civil Conflict: How Does Democracy Aid Affect Civil Conflict?” American Journal of Political Science Volume 55, Issue 2, pages 233–246, April 2011]
We propose that democracy assistance …institutional credibility to smoothen the transition.
Restoring stability prevents Egyptian economy collapse.
Egyptian News 11
(Egypt.com, “Continued Strikes Threaten Egypt,” July 12, 2011, )
Continued strikes in Cairo's Tahrir Square …consequently many of Egypt s other economic sectors.
Increasing Egypt’s participation in the Expanded IMET program changes the nature of IMET in Egypt away from technical development to democratic assistance and fosters Egyptian democracy.
Cook 09
Steven. Directed the Council-sponsored Independent Task Force on U.S. policy toward reform in the Arab world, fluent in Arabic, works for CFR. “Political Instability in Egypt” Council on Foreign Relations i.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/CPA_contingencymemo_4.pdf
A different strategy would be necessary …monitor Egypt’s presidential elections.
The military is the key institution with the ability to make-or-break the democratic transition.
Krieg 11
(Andreas Krieg, PhD, King’s College London, War Studies Department / Department of Defence Studies, "EGYPTIAN CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS AND EGYPT’S POTENTIAL TRANSITION TO DEMOCRACY," PiCA - A Global Research Organization, http://www.thepicaproject.org/?page_id=760)
Mubarak’s resignation after three weeks of popular uprising … to a society that has never been of great concern.
Perception of democratic reform quickly restores economic growth
Egypt News 11 (Egyptian news online news source, “Egyptian financial experts urge foreign investment, not loans, in uncertain climate,” July 27 2011, )
The economic expert Ahmed el-Ghandor … of foreign change in tourism and exports.
Democratic reform is key to Egypt’s long-term economic growth.
Reuters 11 (“Investors see opportunity in post-Mubarak Egypt,” 2/12/11, )
Despite the political uncertainty of what lies ahead in the ... So there is a big domino effect."
Promoting good governance prevents oil-glut-induced hyperinflation
Time 07 (“Curing the Dutch Disease.” http://www.time.com/time/specials/2007/article/0,28804,1720049_1722077_1722426,00.html)
For years, the country's economic situation had ... Enforced laws against corruption are basic.
Advantage 2 is Terrorism
Focusing on respect for civil society and rule of law encourages bilateral intelligence sharing
Rosenbach ‘8
Eric Rosenbach is the executive director of the Belfer Center for International Affairs at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. He formerly served as a professional staff member on the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. As a commander in the United States Army, Rosenbach earned the Meritorious Service Medal, and his unit was named the top intelligence organization in the military for two consecutive years. “The Incisive Fight: Recommendations for Improving Counterterrorism Intelligence” 618 Annals 133. July 2008.
Increase bilateral cooperation Despite recommendations to the contrary…with some unsavory characters to accomplish our national security goals.
Close intelligence ties with allies is key to actionable intelligence that underpins all anti-terror endeavors
Posen ‘2
[Barry R. Professor of Political Science in the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.“The Struggle against Terrorism: Grand Strategy, Strategy, and Tactics” International Security 26.3 (2002) 39-55. Project Muse. ]
Enhanced intelligence capabilities are necessary … first weeks of the air campaign against Afghanistan.
Egypt is key to intelligence gathering for counter-terrorism.
Cook 09
Steven. Directed the Council-sponsored Independent Task Force on U.S. policy toward reform in the Arab world, fluent in Arabic, works for CFR. “Political Instability in Egypt” Council on Foreign Relations i.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/CPA_contingencymemo_4.pdf
Egypt is a difficult yet …seeks to achieve its goals in the region.
Egypt is key to prevent Salafi extremism.
Elgindy 8/4/11
(8/4, Khaled Elgindy, Visiting Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, "Egypt’s Transition Six Months On: From Diversity to Divisiveness," The Brookings Institution, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0804_egypt_elgindy.aspx)
Although suspicions go back many … inimical to the revolution like Saudi Arabia.
Salafi extremism presents the greatest risk of terrorist attacks
Gartenstein-Ross 8
(Daveed,Director of the Center for the Study of Terrorist Radicalization, Foundation for Defense of Democracies, “The Globalization of Martyrdom: Al Qaeda, Salafi Jihad, and the Diffusion of Suicide Attacks” http://www.asmeascholars.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1397&catid=9&Itemid=64)
In contrast to Pape’s analysis, which … connected to transnational militancy.
An effective intelligence community prevents and deters bioterrorist attacks
Mayer 95
Lt Col Terry N. Mayer, USAF. “The Biological Weapon: A Poor Nation’s Weapon of Mass Destruction” http://www.airpower.au.af.mil/airchronicles/battle/chp8.html
Biological terrorism is a challenge for the … national technical means can provide more definitive answers about who are the haves and have nots.
Bioweapons attack causes collapse of civilization
Kellman 8
Director at the International Weapons Control Center at the DePaul University College, Barry, June, “Bioviolence: A growing threat”, http://www.wfs.org/March-April09/MJ2008_Kellman.pdf]
A looming danger confronts the world…catastrophic bioviolence is simply untenable
Bioweapons attack ensures US nuclear response
Conley 03
(Harry W., chief of the systems analysis Branch, Directorate of Requirements, Air and Space Power Journal- Spring 2003- http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj03/spr03/conley.html
The number of American casualties … whatever promises had been made.”48
US retaliation causes global nuclear war
Speice 06
JD Candidate @ College of William and Mary [Patrick F. Speice, Jr., “NEGLIGENCE AND NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION: ELIMINATING THE CURRENT LIABILITY BARRIER TO BILATERAL U.S.-RUSSIAN NONPROLIFERATION ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS,” William & Mary Law Review, February 2006, 47 Wm and Mary L. Rev. 1427]
The potential consequences of the unchecked … the use of nuclear weapons. 53
Bioweapons attack would destroy key biodiversity reservoirs – escalates to extinction
Dudley and Woodford 02
[Joseph P. (consultant on military environmental and conservation policy issues with Versar, Inc., Springfield, VA, and a research associate at the Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska) Michael H. Woodford (fellow of the Royal College of Veterinary Surgeons, London, and chair of the Working Group on Wildlife Diseases at the Office International des Epizooties.) “Bioweapons, Biodiversity, and Ecocide: potential effects of biological weapons on biological diversity.” BioScience 52.7 (July 2002): Ebscohost. Accessed 1/19/2011.]
Efforts to control human disease …deliberate or inadvertent human activities.
The United States State Department should increase Expanded International Military Education and Training for Egypt.
Advantage 2 is US Regional Leadership
U. S. has all but abdicated leadership in the Mideast
Amess 11
David Amess UPI Outside View Commentator July 6, 2011 "Arab Spring needs Iranian Summer to survive" UPI http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Analysis/Outside-View/2011/07/06/Outside-View-Arab-Spring-needs-Iranian-Summer-to-survive/UPI-10751309954560/?spt=hs&or=an
Now as Western leaders continue to … will assist their democratic opposition movement.
Status quo democracy assistance looks like attempts to undermine the Egyptian regime and sparks backlash
POMED 8/11/11
("WSJ: “Egypt Rulers Stoke Xenophobia”," Project on Middle East Democracy, http://pomed.org/blog/2011/08/wsj-egypt-rulers-stoke-xenophobia.html)
Egypt is backlashing against US democracy …against those organizations until they can “close the gates of hell.”
Egyptian CMR reform improves US regional leadership and gets allies on board.
Mitchell and Nelson 11
(Daniel D. Mitchell and Michael D. Nelson, "ACCOMPLISHING AMERICAN STRATEGIC GOALS IN THE MIDDLE EAST THROUGH PERSISTENT SPECIAL OPERATIONS," June, NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL, http://edocs.nps.edu/npspubs/scholarly/theses/2011/June/11Jun_Mitchell.pdf)
The Middle East is of critical importance … manner that maximizes U.S. opportunities.
Perception of America ensuring Egyptian transition is key to US regional influence.
Hamid 11
(Shadi Hamid Director of Research, Brookings Doha Center The Struggle for Middle East Democracy, Middle East Unrest, Middle East, North Africa, Democracy Promotion, Cairo Review of Global Affairs, The Brookings Institute, April 26, 2011, )
A great deal is at stake. America was … Obama promised in his 2009 Cairo address but failed to deliver on.
Reviving US-Egypt cooperation is key to prevent impending collapse of US regional leadership
Satloff 9/13/11 (Robert Satloff is executive director of The Washington Institute, Needed: High-Level U.S. Attention to the Dire Situation in Egypt, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1714)
Ambassador William B. Taylor -- …America's standing in the region collapses as well.
Shoring up allies prevents global re-alignment against the United States
Kagan ‘7
Robert. Kagan is a Senior Associate with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "End of Dreams, Return of History"
If anything, the most notable balancing … after the departure of Bush.
US regional influence is key to prevent resource wars, nuclear proliferation, hegemonic collapse, and global nuclear war.
LEIGH and VUKOVIĆ 10
(Prof. Dr. James Leigh, Professor at the University of Nicosi and Predrag Vuković, Research Assistant at the University of Nicosia, Vol. LXII, br. 1, str. 7-36, "POTENTIAL IRANIAN HEGEMONY IN OIL PRODUCING ISLAMIC COUNTRIES – IMPLICATIONS FOR OIL GEOPOLITICS," http://www.doiserbia.nb.rs/img/doi/0025-8555/2010/0025-85551001007L.pdf)
AMERICAN POLICY AND IRAN The US Policy … dramatic world events and trends.
United States hegemony prevents nuclear wars throughout the globe, and is comparatively better than a world without US Leadership –
Kagan 2007 , Robert. Kagan is a Senior Associate with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "End of Dreams, Return of History"
The jostling for status and influence among these ambitious…States back in under unfavorable circumstances.
