Baylor Hogan and Kaut Aff » Baylor Evans and Morey Aff

Baylor Evans and Morey Aff

Last modified by Administrator on 2012/10/17 22:17
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  • Plan - UMKC

    • Tournament: Sample Tournament | Round: 1 | Opponent: Sample Team | Judge: Sample Judge

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      The United States federal government should substantially increase its technical assistance for democratic governance for Libya.


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10/26/11
  • Solvency - UMKC

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      Libya says yes.

      Rogin 11 (Josh, staff writer for Foreign Policy, “Libyan Ambassador: NTC will start transition now”, 10-20, http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/10/20/libyan_ambassador_ntc_will_start_transition_now)

      Libya's National Transitional Council (NTC) will

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      companies to participate in the reconstruction of Libya.

       

      Aid now, but not for governance

      Blanchard 12-8 (Christopher M. Blanchard 12-8, analyst in Middle Eastern Affairs at CRS, “Libya: Transition and U.S. Policy”, )

      Many Members of Congress welcomed the announcement of

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      Libyans injured or displaced during the revolution.9




01/28/12
  • Civil War Advantage - UMKC

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      The first advantage is Civil War

      NTC’s lack of credible commitment to democratization puts Libya on the brink of civil war

      POMED 1-19-12 (Libya’s Fighting Between Rivals Militias Goes On, http://pomed.org/blog/2012/01/libyas-fighting-between-rivals-militias-goes-on.html)

      Last week, 9 people were killed in

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      it of a number of his longtime lieutenants.

      Democratic governance aid reduces the risk of civil war because it makes the NTC seem credibly committed to democratization.

      Savun and Tirone 11 (Burcu Savun is Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Pittsburgh,  Daniel C. Tirone is a Ph.D. Candidate in the Department of Political Science, University of Pittsburgh, “ Foreign Aid, Democratization, and Civil Conflict: How Does Democracy Aid Affect Civil Conflict,” American Journal of Political Science,” Volume 55, Issue 2, pages 233–246, April 2011)

      More generally, democratization increases the risk of

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      about the new regime's ability to govern fairly.

       

      US technical assistance for democratic governance aid for Libya bolsters US leadership in Libya, pushes out negative influences and stops civil war.

      Engel 11 (11-2, Andrew Engel, a former research assistant at The Washington Institute, is a Beirut-based analyst who recently traveled across Libya, Libya's Post-Qadhafi Challenges, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, PolicyWatch #1866, )

      At this moment of flux, the United

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      state over a democratic state with Islamic values.

       

      Libyan civil war spills over.

      Waddington 12-19-11 I'm currently pursuing a PhD through the University of Johannesburg. My thesis examines the role of resource scarcity, specifically water, in shaping normative approaches to contemporary and future warfare. I completed an MA at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, examining the potential role(s) of private military and security contractors in peacekeeping activities. I taught various business ethics related courses for the School of Management Studies at UKZN from 2005 to 2011,

       The National Transitional Council that currently governs

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      to emulate AQIM and Al Shabaab.(14)

      MANPADS proliferation is a distinct probability

      Wilner 11 (Alex, Senior Researcher at ETH-Zurich and a Macdonald-Laurier Institute Fellow, “Halting al Qaeda’s African rebound”, Troy Media, 11-30-2011, http://www.troymedia.com/blog/2011/11/30/halting-al-qaeda%E2%80%99s-african-rebound-part-3/)

      For AQIM, Libya poses a unique opportunity

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      blind” heat-seeking missiles with lasers.

      Libya civil war destabilizes the Sinai

      Tarnopolsky 11 Noga, Global Post, “Libya's missing weapons being smuggled into Gaza”, 10-8,

       Victoria Nuland, a spokesperson for the

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      to about this right now,” he said.

      Nuclear war

      Zitun 11 9-5, staff writer, quoting Senior IDF officer

       IDF general: Likelihood of regional war

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      possibility of weapons of mass destruction being used."

       

       

      Libya civil war destabilizes South Sudan

      Waddington 12-19-11 I'm currently pursuing a PhD through the University of Johannesburg. My thesis examines the role of resource scarcity, specifically water, in shaping normative approaches to contemporary and future warfare. I completed an MA at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, examining the potential role(s) of private military and security contractors in peacekeeping activities. I taught various business ethics related courses for the School of Management Studies at UKZN from 2005 to 2011,

      To date, reports have surfaced in the

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      Ethiopian and Kenyan cross-border security efforts.

      Goes regional

      National Post 11 9-27,

      Africa’s longest-running civil war 

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      international actors are not able to contain it.” 

      Nuclear war

      Glick 7 Caroline Glick, deputy managing editor of The Jerusalem Post, Senior Fellow for Middle East Affairs of the Center for Security Policy, “Condi's African holiday”, December 11, http://www.rightsidenews.com/20071211309/editorial/us-opinion-and-editorial/our-world-condis-african-holiday.html

      The Horn of Africa is a dangerous and

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      conflagrations between competing regional actors and global powers.

       

       

      Libyan civil war spills over to Western Sahara through weapons to Polisario

      PR Newswire 11-10-11

      Dr. J. Peter Pham, director

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      Niger, Mali, and especially Algeria. "

      Polisario violence spills over to jack the global phosphate supply

      Pearce 11 6-7, Fred Pearce is a freelance author and journalist based in the UK. He serves as environmental consultant for New Scientist magazine and is the author of numerous books, including When The Rivers Run Dry and With Speed and Violence. In previous articles for Yale Environment 360, Pearce has written about the environmental consequences of humankind’s addiction to chemical fertilizers and about how agribusiness threatens a critical African wildlife migration.

      If you wanted to really mess with

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      to mine the rock — or we starve.

       

      Loss of phosphorous access threatens food production.

      Cordell 11 (4-4. Dana, Tom Lindström, and Stuart White; is a Research Principal at the at the University of Technology Sydney where she undertakes and leads research projects on sustainable resource futures. She co-founded the ; is a theoretical ecologist, working as a postdoctoral researcher at the Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology (IFM) at Linköping University in Sweden. Currently, he is currently a Visiting Fellow at the School of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Science, at the University of New South Wales in Australia.; is Director of the at the University of Technology Sydney where he leads a team of researchers who create change towards sustainable futures through independent, project-based research. He co-founded the ; Peak phosphorus: the crunch time for humanity; http://www.thesustainabilityreview.org/2011/04/peak-phosphorus-the-crunch-time-for-humanity/; The Sustainability Review; April 4, 2011; Issue II, Research, Volume II; Accessed 10/23/11 3:31:08 PM - BEW)

      The element phosphorus underpns our ability to produce

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      , Australia and the European Union more vulnerable.

       

       

       

      Food scarcity causes global war.

      Blas 8 [8-15, Javier, Commodities correspondent for the Financial Times, The National Interest, ]

      FOOD. MAN'S most-essential resource.

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      and government-destroying conflict may become commonplace.

       

      Extinction

      Klare 6 (Peace and World Security Studies-Hampshire College, )

      "As famine, disease, and weather

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      will escape involvement in these forms of conflict.




01/28/12
  • Russia Advantage - UMKC

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      Advantage two is Russia

      Russia is persuading the NTC to grant them energy contracts.

      Voice of Russia 12-28-11 (Russia gains acccess to Libya's oil, http://english.ruvr.ru/2011/12/28/63065937.html)

      Russian energy companies have resumed their work in

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      of the Energy Development Foundation Sergei Pikin says.

      EU is too divided and idealist to counter Russia influence over energy resources.

      Helen 10 POLIS Journal Vol.4, Winter 2010 Postgraduate student in politics, university of Leeds http://www.polis.leeds.ac.uk/assets/files/students/student-journal/ma-winter-10/helen-e.pdf

       Energy policy is also an integral part

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      norms and values of the EU are universal.

       

       

       

      Russia’s gaining leverage over European energy – Libya’s key

      Blank 11 [Stephen Blank, Professor at the Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, “Russia’s Anxieties About The Arab Revolution,” Foreign Policy Research Institute, http://www.fpri.org/enotes/2011/201107.blankrussiaarabspring.html]

      Second, Libya is important to Russia’s energy

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      i.e. Libyan and Algerian fields.

      Russian control of post-war Libya ensures continued European dependence on Russian energy

      Kurtz 11 (Columnist-The National Review, 7/21, http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/272296/obama-hands-libya-russia-stanley-kurtz)

      Why is Obama giving Libya to the Russians

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      . freed of U.S. domination.

      Leading from behind on Libya causes an authoritarian counter-mobilization by Russia---triggers geopolitical jockeying and great-power war---only overt U.S. influence deters

      Grygiel 11 10-3, Jakub Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis and the George H.W. Bush Associate Professor of International Relations at Johns Hopkins-SAIS, October 3, 2011, “Great Powers and Democracy Promotion,” online: http://www.cepa.org/ced/view.aspx?record_id=319

      Alas, reality is different. Democratization does

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      the potentially dangerous geopolitical consequences of their actions.

       

       

      US leadership in Libyan key to secure preferential energy contracts

      Mardsen 11 10-30, Rachel Marsden is a columnist, political strategist and former Fox News host who writes regularly for major publications in the U.S. and abroad. http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2011-10-30/news/bs-ed-marsden-libya-20111030_1_president-obama-military-action-libyan-mission

      Libyan oil: To the victor go the

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      wartime leadership -- particularly when oil is at stake

      Libya key to European energy diversification—only US support can reduce Russian leverage

      McNamara 9 (Senior Policy Analyst in European Affairs in the Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom, “Europe Should Reduce Dependence on Russian Energy,” http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2009/01/europe-should-reduce-dependence-on-russian-energy-and-develop-competitive-energy-markets)

      Energy expert Dieter Helm could have had this

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      find itself literally left out in the cold.

       

      Energy monopoly breeds nationalism and militarism in Europe – escalates to nuclear war.

      Karlin 9 (10/23, Anatoly – San Francisco based independent writer, Sublime Strategic Report #10, p. http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2009/10/23/ssr10-europe-black-continent/)

      In addition to the manifold soft power tools

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      deterrence power of nuclear weapons will fall dramatically.

       

       

      Energy monopoly destroys EU democracy promotion in Eurasia

      Baran 7 [Zenyo, senior fellow and director of the Center for Eurasian Policy at the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C., “ EU Energy Security: Time to End Russian Leverage,” THE WASHINGTON QUARTERLY AUTUMN 2007, http://ao.hudson.org/files/publications/07autumn_baran.pdf]

      Russia, the European Union’s primary oil and

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      democracy both in Russia and in Russia’s neighbors.

      Ensures Central Asian instability

      Asmus 8 [Ronald, Executive Director of the Transatlantic Center at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, in Brussels. From 1997 to 2000, he served as U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs, “ Europe's Eastern Promise; Rethinking NATO and EU Enlargement,” Foreign Affairs. New York: Jan/Feb 2008. Vol. 87, Iss. 1; pg. 95]

      The challenge of securing Europe's eastern border from

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      autocratic, nationalist Russia is on the rise.

       

      Nuclear war

      Blank 2k [Stephen J. - Expert on the Soviet Bloc for the Strategic Studies Institute, “American Grand Strategy and the Transcaspian Region”, World Affairs. 9-22]

      Thus many structural conditions for conventional war or

      AND

      proxies capable of settling the situation.(77)

      Central Asia escalates – it’s geopolitically significant.

      Sahgal and Anand 10 Arun is a former Army officer who created the Office of Net Assessment in the Indian Joint Staff, Senior Fellow at the Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses and ‘Distinguished Fellow’ School of Geo-Politics at the Manipal Academy of Higher Education,  Vinod, postgraduate in defence and strategic studies and is an alumnus of Defence Services Staff College and College of Defence Management, “Strategic Environment in Central Asia and India”, http://www.silkroadstudies.org/new/docs/publications/1004Joshi-V-Strategic.pdf

      The geo-strategic salience of Central Asia

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      outside powers to interfere in their internal affairs.




01/28/12

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