Egyptian revolution risks becoming unfocused and violent
Ignatius 7-22-11
David. “What Happens When the Arab Spring Turns to Summer?” Foreign Policy. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/22/what_happens_when_the_arab_spring_turns_to_summer?page=full
After the exhilarating days in Tahrir Square that led … order and give up the freedoms they fought so hard to obtain.
The United States federal government should increase Expanded International Military Education and Training assistance for Egypt.
Advantage 1 is Stability, first the economy
Egyptian economy will collapse by the end of 2011 without stabilization
Arab Times 11
(“When will Egypt go Broke?” July 23, 2011, http://www.crethiplethi.com/when-will-egypt-go-broke/islamic-countries/egypt-islamic-countries/2011/)
A May 19 report by the Middle East News Agency, an agency… and the fog of war is thickened by wild assertions.
Military education solves
Henry and Springborg 11
(Clement professor of government and middle east studies at the University of Texas at Autstin, and Robert, professor of national security affairs at the naval post graduate school and program manager for the middle east at the Center for Civil-Military Relations, “A Tunisian Solution for Egypt’s Military, Foreign Affairs Online, February 21, 2011, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67475/clement-m-henry-and-robert-springborg/a-tunisian-solution-for-egypts-military?page=show)
But Egypt faces dire economic conditions, and the military … Cairo’s January 25 movement: “Tunisia is the solution.”
Egyptian economic turmoil creates an unexpected shock and global economic catastrophe.
Schuman 11
(Michael, TIME Magazine, 2/2, “Does the turmoil in Egypt threaten the global recovery?” http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/02/02/does-the-turmoil-in-egypt-threaten-the-global-recovery/#ixzz1TT6k4O6d)
At first glance, the upheaval on the Nile might seem far removed … prove to be just such an unwelcome surprise
Economic decline causes global war
Royal 10
(Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction – U.S. Department of Defense, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises”, Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, Ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215)
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline …to create a 'rally around the flag' effect.
Promoting good governance prevents oil-glut-induced hyperinflation
Time 2007. “Curing the Dutch Disease.” (http://www.time.com/time/specials/2007/article/0,28804,1720049_1722077_1722426,00.html)
For years, the country's economic situation had seemed ….States has come a long way since then.
Second is prolif -
Military-to-military exchanges and support is the lynchpin of successful transition to democracy in Egypt
Mujamdar 4-8-11
Shuvaloy. “Democracy’s dawn in the Middle East” VANCOUVER, BC, Apr. 8, 2011. http://www.troymedia.com/2011/04/08/democracys-dawn-in-the-middle-east/
In crisis, governments tend to be guided by … materiel and training to forces fighting for freedom.
The military is the key institution with the ability to make-or-break the transition to democracy
Krieg 11
(Andreas Krieg, PhD, King’s College London, War Studies Department / Department of Defence Studies, "EGYPTIAN CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS AND EGYPT’S POTENTIAL TRANSITION TO DEMOCRACY," PiCA - A Global Research Organization, http://www.thepicaproject.org/?page_id=760)
Mubarak’s resignation after three weeks of popular …a society that has never been of great concern.
Perception is necessary - external credibility makes internal violence less probable
Savun and Tirone 11
[Burcu Savun is Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Pittsburgh and, Daniel C. Tirone is a Ph.D. Candidate in the Department of Political Science, University of Pittsburgh, “Foreign Aid, Democratization, and Civil Conflict: How Does Democracy Aid Affect Civil Conflict?” American Journal of Political Science Volume 55, Issue 2, pages 233–246, April 2011]
We propose that democracy assistance…institutional credibility to smoothen the transition.
Egypt is the litmus test and guiding factor for all revolutions
Ignatius 7-22-11
David. “What Happens When the Arab Spring Turns to Summer?” Foreign Policy. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/22/what_happens_when_the_arab_spring_turns_to_summer?page=full
Egypt, in particular, is decisive. … the revolution will fail elsewhere.
Instability causes rapid nuclearization
Sokolski 2-8-2011
[Henry. “Gimme Fuel, Gimme Fire What the Egyptian revolt means for nuclear proliferation.” The New Republic. http://www.tnr.com/article/82995/nuclear-weapons-middle-east-obama-mubarak]
The United States has had formal civilian nuclear cooperation … making nuclear fuel as a condition for securing U.S. nuclear cooperation.
Prolif makes all conflicts more likely to go nuclear – nuclear war ensues
Horowitz 09
Professor of Political Science @ University of Pennsylvania [Michael Horowitz (Former Emory debater and NDT Champion), “The Spread of Nuclear Weapons and International Conflict: Does Experience Matter?,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Volume 53 Number 2, April 2009 pg. 234-257]
Learning as states gain experience with nuclear …themselves in disputes with resolved adversaries that will reciprocate militarized challenges.
U. S. has all but abdicated leadership in the Mideast
David Amess UPI Outside View Commentator July 6, 2011 "Arab Spring needs Iranian Summer to survive" UPI http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Analysis/Outside-View/2011/07/06/Outside-View-Arab-Spring-needs-Iranian-Summer-to-survive/UPI-10751309954560/?spt=hs&or=an
Now as Western leaders continue to lead … will assist their democratic opposition movement.
Status quo democracy assistance looks like attempts to undermine the Egyptian regime and sparks backlash
POMED 8/11/11
("WSJ: “Egypt Rulers Stoke Xenophobia”," Project on Middle East Democracy, http://pomed.org/blog/2011/08/wsj-egypt-rulers-stoke-xenophobia.html)
Egypt is backlashing against US democracy …against those organizations until they can “close the gates of hell.”
Military-to-military training like E-IMET strengthens allies and allows the United States to transition to reliance on allies in key regions
Mitchell and Nelson 11
(Daniel D. Mitchell and Michael D. Nelson, "ACCOMPLISHING AMERICAN STRATEGIC GOALS IN THE MIDDLE EAST THROUGH PERSISTENT SPECIAL OPERATIONS," June, NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL, http://edocs.nps.edu/npspubs/scholarly/theses/2011/June/11Jun_Mitchell.pdf)
The Middle East is of critical importance …manner that maximizes U.S. opportunities.
Shoring up allies prevents global re-alignment against the United States
Kagan ‘7
Robert. Kagan is a Senior Associate with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "End of Dreams, Return of History" http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/07/end_of_dreams_return_of_histor.html
If anything, the most notable balancing over the past …with these countries after the departure of Bush.
Focusing on respect for civil society and rule of law encourages bilateral intelligence sharing
Rosenbach ‘8
Eric Rosenbach is the executive director of the Belfer Center for International Affairs at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. He formerly served as a professional staff member on the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. As a commander in the United States Army, Rosenbach earned the Meritorious Service Medal, and his unit was named the top intelligence organization in the military for two consecutive years. “The Incisive Fight: Recommendations for Improving Counterterrorism Intelligence” 618 Annals 133. July 2008.
Increase bilateral cooperation Despite recommendations to … characters to accomplish our national security goals.
Close intelligence ties with allies is key to actionable intelligence that underpins all anti-terror endeavors
Posen ‘2
[Barry R. Professor of Political Science in the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.“The Struggle against Terrorism: Grand Strategy, Strategy, and Tactics” International Security 26.3 (2002) 39-55. Project Muse. ]
Enhanced intelligence capabilities are necessary … first weeks of the air campaign against Afghanistan.
An effective intelligence community prevents and deters bioterrorist attacks
Mayer 95
Lt Col Terry N. Mayer, USAF. “The Biological Weapon: A Poor Nation’s Weapon of Mass Destruction” http://www.airpower.au.af.mil/airchronicles/battle/chp8.html
Biological terrorism is a challenge for the … answers about who are the haves and have nots.
Bioweapons attack would destroy key biodiversity reservoirs– the most at-risk populations are located near potential targets and escalates to extinction
Dudley and Woodford 02
[Joseph P. (consultant on military environmental and conservation policy issues with Versar, Inc., Springfield, VA, and a research associate at the Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska) Michael H. Woodford (fellow of the Royal College of Veterinary Surgeons, London, and chair of the Working Group on Wildlife Diseases at the Office International des Epizooties.) “Bioweapons, Biodiversity, and Ecocide: potential effects of biological weapons on biological diversity.” BioScience 52.7 (July 2002): Ebscohost. Accessed 1/19/2011.]
Efforts to control human disease epidemics … the result of deliberate or inadvertent human activities.
United States hegemony prevents nuclear wars throughout the globe, and is comparatively better than a world without US Leadership –
Kagan 2007 , Robert. Kagan is a Senior Associate with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "End of Dreams, Return of History" http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/07/end_of_dreams_return_of_histor.html
The jostling for status and influence among these ambitious nations … back in under unfavorable circumstances.
Plan changes the nature of IMET in Egypt away from technical development to democratic assistance and solves
Cook ‘9
Steven. Directed the Council-sponsored Independent Task Force on U.S. policy toward reform in the Arab world, fluent in Arabic, works for CFR. “Political Instability in Egypt” Council on Foreign Relations i.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/CPA_contingencymemo_4.pdf
A different strategy would be necessary if U.S. …independent observers to monitor Egypt’s presidential elections.
Egyptian military will backstop democratic reforms unless cultural change proves the military institution will be valued in a democracy
Feldman 7-26-2011
Noah. ArabianBusiness.com July 26, 2011 Tuesday “Don't let the Egyptian army follow Caesar's script” Bloomberg. Lexis.
The bottom line is that the military as an institution is … including the US, should realise it too.
