Plan
The United States federal government should provide a substantial increase in support to Egyptian organizations and political parties to rewrite the Egyptian constitution without Article 2.
Advantage 1: Religious Wars
Scenario 1
Article two will pass now. The opposition to it is not receiving enough support.
Hussein 1/21 (Abdel-Rahman, Journalist for Egypt Independent, “With parliament set to commence, groups gear up for debate on constitution”, http://www.egyptindependent.com/node/611386, 1/21/2012)
The question of Islamic Sharia law and the
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We do not have that in Islam.”
Article 2 will pass now. Creates Sharia law which will be used to destroy democracy by legitimizing a theocratic state.
Soliman 11 (Samer, Assistant professor of political economy at the American University in Cairo, “Religion and state in the people’s constitutions”http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContentP/4/16022/Opinion/Religion-and-state-in-the-people%E2%80%99s-constitutions.aspx, 07/10/2011)
There have also been proposals to compose a
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in one blow but through a gradual process.
Egypt’s transition to theocracy would crush regional democratic movements and cause massive instability
Dunne 11 (Michele, Written by a team of economists and experts in international transitions from the Legatum Institute and the Carnegie Endowment, Michele Dunne was the director of the report - senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment, specialist on Middle East affairs at the U.S. Department of State and White House, she served in assignments including the National Security Council staff, the Secretary of State’s Policy Planning Staff, the U.S. Embassy in Cairo, the U.S. Consulate General in Jerusalem, and the Department of State’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research, Ph.D. in Arabic language and literature from Georgetown University, where she is an adjunct professor of Arab Studies, “EGYPT’S DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION,” http://carnegieendowment.org/files/Egypts_Democratic_Trans_UK16ppWEB.pdf, July 2011)
If the democratic transition in Egypt fails and
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, a stabilising force in a turbulent region.
Middle East instability make nuclear war inevitable
Blake 11 (Heidi Blake, WikiLeaks: tension in the Middle East and Asia has 'direct potential' to lead to nuclear war, The Telegraph, Feb 2, 2011, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8298427/WikiLeaks-tension-in-the-Middle-East-and-Asia-has-direct-potential-to-lead-to-nuclear-war.html)
Tension in the Middle East and Asia has
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minute if inhaled or absorbed through the skin.
Scenario 2
Article 2 fuels religious persecution by Salafists against minority religions which destroys religious autonomy
Croucher 11 (Rowland, authored 12 books including "Still Waters Deep Waters", Analyst on religious relations, “The persecution of Egypt’s Christians”, http://reportergary.com/2011/06/the-persecution-of-egypts-christians/, 06/14/2011)
A recent spate of violence in Egypt,
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– more than they experienced during Mubarak’s regime.
Destruction of religious autonomy causes religious war. Afghanistan proves
Toft 11 (Monica, Associate Professor of Public Policy at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, Carnegie Scholar, Ph.D. from the University of Chicago, Professor Toft is director of the Belfer Center's Initiative on Religion in International Affairs, “God's Century: Resurgent Religion and Global Politics,” ISBN: 0393069265, 2011)
When states deny religious actors autonomy and independence
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the dynamic in 16 percent of such wars.
Religious wars cause civil wars which explode into regional instability, terrorism, and Middle East war
Toft 11 (Monica, Associate Professor of Public Policy at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, Carnegie Scholar, Ph.D. from the University of Chicago, Professor Toft is director of the Belfer Center's Initiative on Religion in International Affairs, “God's Century: Resurgent Religion and Global Politics,” ISBN: 0393069265, 2011)
Acts of religious terrorism usually aim at single
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light of the Taliban's opposition to Shiite Islam.
Middle East war result in Extinction
Bahig Nassar 2002 (coordinator of Arab coordination Center of NGOs) keynote paper, online: inesglobal.org)
Wars in the Middle East are of a
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civilisations depend mainly on this source of energy.
Advantage 2: Israel
Scenario 1
The legitimization of Sharia law will lead to an Egypt-Israeli war lead by the Salafists
Philpott 11 (Daniel, associate professor of political science and peace studies at the University of Notre Dame. Timothy Shah is associate director of the Religious Freedom Project at Georgetown University’s Berkley Center for Religion, Peace & World Affairs. Monica Duffy Toft is associate professor of public policy at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government and director of the Initiative on Religion in International Affairs, “The dangers of secularism in the Middle East”, http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2011/0811/The-dangers-of-secularism-in-the-Middle-East/(page)/2, 8/11/2011)
To be sure, the region contains many
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regimes that deny them autonomy and political participation.
This leads to war with Israel
Rubin 11 (Barry, director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center. He is a featured columnist at PJM (http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/) and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal, “The Region: The revolutionary movement's big split”, http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Article.aspx?id=233765, 08/14/2011)
But now two other events have done so
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Neither group will be moderate in any way.
Extinction
Beres 11 (Louis, professor of political science and international law at Purdue University, chair of Project Daniel (Israel), “Israel, anarchy and global chaos”, http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Op-EdContributors/Article.aspx?id=234092, 8/17/2011)
The probability of expanding Middle East chaos could
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, and until all things human are leveled.
Scenario 2
U.S. siding with the MB is destroying Israeli relations and forces Israel into a corner
Elman 1/5 (Arik, Israeli political and PR consultant, “President Obama and the Muslim Brotherhood”, http://www.algemeiner.com/2012/01/05/president-obama-and-the-muslim-brotherhood/, 1/5/12)
Turns out, Senator Lieberman’s compliment to Israel
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have a plan on how to get there.
Stable US-Israel relations key to Middle East stability.
Kramer 6 (Dr. Martin, fellow at The Washington Institute and senior fellow at the Olin Institute @ Harvard, “The American Interest,” Fall 2006, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=980)
My answer, to anticipate my conclusion,
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of the grip of the West’s sworn enemies.
Even perception of shaky relations hurts attempts to deter Iran
AJC 10 (American Jewish Committee, “AJC Panel Underscores Importance of Strong U.S.-Israel Relationship”, 4-29, p. http://www.ajc.org/site/apps/nlnet/content2.aspx?c=ijITI2PHKoG&b=2818295&ct=8225453¬oc=1)
April 29, 2010 – Washington, D
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to a stable Middle East,” Isaacson said.
Israel strikes first
Pfeffer 10 (Ashnel. Staffer for the Assc Press in Israel. “Israel has Know-How to Hit Iran” The Assc Press 5/11/10, lexis)
In a rare public reference to a sensitive
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out of shelters in their hour of need.
Doesn’t need to draw in great powers – Israel alone has enough to cause extinction.
Casey ’6 — Mingus Casey, Scoop News, 10-9-6 “On the History of Nuclear Arms, the Arms trade, and one very small very vulnerable very beautiful planet” online
The ecological effects of nuclear testing are massive
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animal and sea life will probably die out.
Advantage 3: Economy
Egypt economy is down now and implementing Shariah law will collapse the economy in the short term.
Hamid 01/02 (Tawfik, Islamic thinker and reformer, and one time Islamic extremist from Egypt. He was a member of a terrorist Islamic organization JI with Dr. Ayman Al-Zawaherri who became later on the second in command of Al-Qaeda, http://www.newsmax.com/TawfikHamid/Islamists-Egypt-Shariah-solution/2012/01/02/id/422757, 1/2/2012)
Failure of the Islamist groups to deliver such
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millions of jobs is more difficult to decipher.
Sharia law guarantees Egyptian economic collapse in the long-term
Sorman 11 (Guy, columnist for Le Figaro in France, the Wall Street Journal and City Journal - contributing editor, advisor to the prime minister of France, taught economics at the Paris Institute of Political Sciences from 1970 to 2000, “Is Islam Compatible with Capitalism? The Middle East’s future depends on the answer.” http://www.city-journal.org/2011/21_3_muslim-economy.html, Summer 2011)
But Duke’s Kuran believes that Islam did play
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massive unemployment, and a large black market.
Egypt’s economy is key to global recovery
Schuman 11 (Michael, TIME Magazine,
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the-global-recovery/#ixzz1TT6k4O6d)gw
At first glance, the upheaval on the
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could prove to be just such an unwelcome surprise
Economic recovery prevents nuclear World War III
O'Donnell 9 [2009 Baltimore Republican Examiner writer and Marine Corps Reserve squad leader, 9
[Sean, 2-26-2009
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-to-World-War- III]
Could the current economic crisis affecting this country
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is averted. However sometimes history repeats itself.
Advantage 4: Liberty of Conscience
Separation of Church and State is critical to preserve liberty of conscience
Feldman 2 (Noah, graduated from Harvard College in 1992, ranked first in the College, and earned a Rhodes Scholarship to Oxford University, where he earned a D.Phil in Islamic Thought, Asst. Professor of Law, New York University, Now professor of law at Harvard Law School, “THE INTELLECTUAL ORIGINS OF THE ESTABLISHMENT CLAUSE”, http://web.archive.org/web/20080625032915/http://www.undergodprocon.org/pdf/feldman.pdf, 2002)
This now-canonical categorization of these different
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independence of spirit or wise self-government.
Liberty of conscience outweighs any systemic impact
Nussbaum 10 (Martha, Ernst Freund Distinguished Service Professor of Law and Ethics at the University of Chicago, a chair that includes appointments in the Philosophy Department, the Law School, and the Divinity School, Liberty of Conscience: In Defense of America's Tradition of Religious Equality, ISBN: 9780786721948, 01/2010)
Such ideas of fairness and respect continue to
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-command from that point of view."19
Solvency
The US must provide practical and financial support to secular groups in Egypt that are trying to overcome the Islamist movements. Only this solves
Dergham 11/4 (Raghida, Senior Diplomatic Correspondent for the London-based Al Hayat, the
leading independent Arabic daily, since 1989.
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, 11/04/2011)
The Arab Spring is currently suffering a setback
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.S. interests in the Arab region.
These organizations want help
Democracy Digest 11
http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/06/egyptian-officials-attack-democracy-assistance-as-ngos-challenge-troubling-transition/
But many democracy
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it was observed.
Recent movements have portrayed the Brotherhoods willingness to compromise with liberal parties; U.S. support would cement approval behind these initiatives
Sabry 1/1 (MOHANNAD, “Divisions emerge between Islamists in Egypt,” http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/01/01/2569099/divisions-emerge-between-islamists.html, 1/1/2012)
CAIRO — Islamist parties are the top two
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expected to be seated on Jan. 23.
No DAs – spending on foreign aid was just massively increased AND it wasn’t politically controversial
Dervis 12 Kemal Derviş, Vice President and Director, Global Economy and Development
Homi Kharas, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director
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legislators until his untimely passing at age 92.
Obama is personally working to increase the aid to Egypt as well as the speed with which the aid is delivered.
Strobel 1/25 (Warren, Former foreign affairs correspondent for McClatchy Newspapers, “Obama set to speed aid to Egypt: official”, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/25/us-davos-usa-egypt-idUSTRE80O24G20120125, 1/25/2012)
U.S. President Barack Obama plans
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to quick-impact projects, he said.
US views on religion are key – EU and others fail
Monshipouri, PhD, Professor of International Relations @ SFSU, 2009
[Mahmood, Muslims in Global Politics:
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well as legal rights that must be honored.""
Political Islam is distinct from religious Islam and is the cause of violence in the Middle East; Kurdistan proves that separation solves
Romano 11 (David, Thomas G. Strong Professor of Middle East Politics at Missouri State University and author of The Kurdish Nationalist Movement, “A Shroud Over the Arab Spring”, http://www.rudaw.net/english/science/columnists/4052.html, 10/13/2011)
When it comes to tolerance and popular acceptance
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condemning the recent slaughter of Coptic Christian demonstrators.
