Plan: The United States federal government should make political party support available for the Egyptian Freedom and Justice Party.
Advantage 1 – Egypt-Israel War
Mozgovaya, 6-30-11(Lauren Serpe is a Research Officer at the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES). She conducts public opinion surveys and focus groups focused on issues related to democracy in the Middle East and North Africa and other regions of the world. March 8, 2011. www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/opinion/110307/gender-issues-should-be-yemen-reform)
United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton denied
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participatory political system that we would like to see
These talks alone fail – US must fulfill expectations that have been created for engagement
Dorsey 7/5, Middle East Institute, 7-5-’11
(James, “US risks missing opportunity
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The ever more evident difficulty in the
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fulfill those expectations risks sparking disappointment and disillusionment.
The Muslim Brotherhood is banned from participation in political party assistance programs even though they have shown interest – assistance is key
Hamid 10, Middle East at Brookings, ’10
(Shaid, January 5, “How
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In the article, I criticized the Obama
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Re-introducing the Brotherhood to the West.”
This bias towards secular parties makes it look like we’re trying to engineer elections against the Brotherhood – this ruins our credibility with Islamic parties
Carothers, Democracy at Carnegie, ’11
(Thomas, February 24, “How
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As the U.S. government assesses
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exclusion would be a good way to start.
The Brotherhood will inevitably win the elections and dominate the new political landscape – they are unified and have unparalleled mobilization capabilities
Trager, Washington Institute, ’11
(Eric, September/October, “
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,'" said one activist approached by the
Ascendency of the Muslim Brotherhood will cause them to turn against Israel – engagement is key to moderate their stance
Bajoria, CFR, ’11
(Jayshree, February 3, “Egypt’s
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Egypt is an important strategic ally of the
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at the heart of talks with Egypt's Islamists."
The Muslim Brotherhood will act aggressively towards Israel – political involvement alone won’t cause moderation
Jerusalem Post, 8-29-’11
(“Egypt’s Brotherhood”
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Today, a fifth of Egyptians live on
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does not repeat itself on our southern doorstep.
Tensions are high – Egypt-Israel conflict engulfs the entire region
Brady, PolicyMic, ’11
(Kyle, August, “A Dangerous
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Egypt and Israel have never been friendly neighbors
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given, more so now than ever before.
It draws in major powers and causes global nuclear war
Russell, Editor of Strategic Insights, ‘9
(James- Senior Lecturer Department of National
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Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined
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, with substantial risk for the entire world.
Developing ties before the elections is key to maximizing US leverage – this prevents the instigation of conflict with Israel
Hamid 11, Middle East at Brookings, ’11
(Shadi, May/June, “
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Affairs, Vol 90 Issue 3, EbscoHost)
There is no question that democracy will make
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2005 called Reintroducing the Brotherhood to the West.
Democracy assistance is key – perception of US assistance for Brotherhood in political participation is a precondition to effective dialogue over US security interests in the region
Hamid, Middle East at Brookings, ’10
(Shadi Hamid and Amanda Kadlec- Project
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Dialogue is not a goal in and of
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serving all four of the objectives listed above.
New 1AC card replacing Jerusalem Post in Adv 1
Advantage 2: US Credibility
US favoritism of liberal secularism is the root cause of Muslim resentment towards the West – Providing democracy assistance to the Muslim Brotherhood signals a shift in the relationship
Kull, Director of Program on International Policy Attitudes, 9-5-’11 (Steven, “Why Muslims are still mad at America” http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/05/why-muslims-are-still-mad-at-america/)
On the ten-year anniversary of the
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article are solely those of Steven Kull.
Al Qaeda is still a threat – Complacency about Osama’s death increaes the risk al Qaeda will rebound
Boot,National Security at CFR, ’11(Max, August 8, “A False Sense of National Security” Los Angeles Times, http://www.cfr.org/national-security-and-defense/false-sense-national-security)
U.S. government officials are probably
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aides, may be making the same mistake.
Zawahiri’s new goal is acquisition of a nuclear bomb – risk of al Qaeda nuclear attack is high
Kanani, Editor of World Affairs Commentary,6-29-’11(Rahim, “New al-Qaeda Chief Zawahiri Has Strong Nuclear Intent” Forbes, http://www.forbes.com/sites/rahimkanani/2011/06/29/new-al-qaeda-chief-zawahiri-has-strong-nuclear-intent/)
Rigid, arrogant, unpopular and lacking the
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accomplishing when they put their minds to it.”
Nuclear terrorism causes global nuclear escalation – national retaliation goes global
Morgan, Professorof Foreign Studies at Hankuk University, ‘9 (Dennis Ray, December, “World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race” Futures, Vol 41 Issue 10, p 683-693, ScienceDirect)
In a remarkable website on nuclear war,
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upon the environment and fragile ecosphere as well.
Al Qaeda will block off access to the Suez Canal
Watkins, Oil Diplomacy Editor, ’10 (Eric, February 15, “Al-Qaeda's new oil strategy” Oil and Gas Journal, lexis)
The oil and gas industry has long heard
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two thirds of the world's oil reserves are.
Terrorist attack on the Suez Canal causes shutdown – that slams the breaks on the global economy
Sterne, Managing Partner Sterne and Co, ’11 (Paul, January 30, “Egypt's Second Suez Canal Crisis”http://www.groundreport.com/World/Second-Suez-Crisis/2933579)
Egypt matters for one
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wreck the global economy.
Global economic collapse causes nuclear war
Mead 09 Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, Only Makes You Stronger, The New Republic, www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=2
The greatest danger both to U.S
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track, we may still have to fight.
Beginning with the Muslim Brotherhood creates a starting point for further cooperation with other Islamist groups in the region
Stacher, Professor PolSci Kent State, ‘7 (Joshua, March 25, “Hear Out Muslim Brotherhood” Boston Globe,http://www.merip.org/newspaper_opeds/oped032507)
According to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice,
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radical Islamic terrorism – helps win hearts and minds
Hamid, Director Project on Middle East Democracy, ‘7 (Shadi, June, “Engaging Political Islam to Promote Democracy” Progressive Policy Institute, http://www.dlc.org/documents/Political_Islam_06272007.pdf)
In light of the growing schism between ma
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That window, however, is now closed.
