1AC - Inherency
The US continues to focus on military counterterrorism in Yemen, preventing any democracy assistance
Boucek 2010
[Dr. Christopher, Associate, Middle East Program Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Written Testimony U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs February 3, 2010 YEMEN ON THE BRINK: IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. POLICY, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/0203_transcript_boucek_testimony.pdf]
It is essential that Washington take a holistic
AND
that will contribute indirectly to improving domestic security.
1AC - Plan
The United States Federal Government should offer assistance for local governance training programs and assistance for civil society groups.
1AC – Adv:_ AQAP
The US is committed to military approaches to against AQAP in the SQ – these backfire, producing greater recruiting pools for terrorism
Johnsen 10 (Gregory D., a former Fulbright fellow in Yemen, is currently a Ph.D. candidate in Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University, “Ignoring Yemen at Our Peril,” Foreign Policy, October 31, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/10/31/ignoring_yemen_at_our_peril?page=0,1)
The United States, faced with a difficult
AND
that luck holding is not a safe bet.
AQAP will attack the US
Boucek 2011
[Dr. Christopher, Associate, Middle East Program Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Written Testimony Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Near Eastern and South and Central Asian Affairs Washington, D.C. July 19, 2011, http://foreign.senate.gov/hearings/hearing/?id=6dfc834d-5056-a032-5221-41d3cf94e791]
Since its creation in January 2009, the Yemen-based al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
(AQAP) has eclipsed ‘core al
AND
explosives concealed as cargo packages mailed from Yemen.
Al-Qaeda can get nukes and they’ll use them
Arbuckle 8 (Larry J. Arbuckle, Lieutenant, United States Navy, June 2008, “THE DETERRENCE OF NUCLEAR TERRORISM THROUGH AN ATTRIBUTION CAPABILITY,” http://edocs.nps.edu/npspubs/scholarly/theses/2008/Jun/08Jun_Arbuckle.pdf)
However, there is evidence that a small
AND
ideology that resonates with significant numbers of people.
The impact is extinction
Sid-Ahmed ‘4
(Mohamed, Managing Editor for Al-Ahali, “Extinction!” August 26-September 1, Issue no. 705, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm)
A nuclear attack by terrorists will be much
AND
whole planet, we will all be losers.
And, retaliation causes nuclear war among world powers
Corsi ‘5
(Jerome, PhD in political science from Harvard, excerpt from Atomic Iran, http://911review.org/Wget/worldnetdaily.com/NYC_hit_by_terrorist_nuke.html)
The combination of horror and outrage that will
AND
the great nations focus on attacking one another.
AQAP terrorism will also cause international oil and economic shocks – systemic reforms in Yemen are key
Boucek 11
[Christopher, Associated Middle East Program Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, NATIONAL INTEREST, JULY 6, Yemen in Crisis, http://carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=44944&solr_hilite=Yemen]
The thing that really separates Yemen from all
AND
and prepare for terrorist operations on Western targets.
AQAP has had its hands in a number
AND
is a recipe for major international economic problems.
But even with this in mind, an
AND
Yemen—and not simply terrorism and AQAP.
Oil shocks empirically collapse growth—Kill consumption and spike inflation
Roubini & Setser 4 (Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Business, Brad Setser, Research Associate, Global Economic Governance Programme, University College, Oxford, August 2004, online)
Oil prices shocks have a stagflationary effect on
AND
the invasion of Iraq is a good example.
Extinction
Bearden 2000 (Lt. Col Thomas E. Bearden, PhD, MS, BSCo-inventor - the 2002 Motionless Electromagnetic Generator - a replicated overunity EM generator Listed in Marquis' Who'sWho in America, 2004)
Just prior to the terrible collapse of the
AND
or some modified version of it, resulting.
Also, Global Economic Decline causes nuclear war
Empirics prove - Econ collapse leads to war
O’Donnell 9 (Sean Squad Leader in the Marine Corps Reserve and is currently a graduate student at the University of Baltimore studying law and ethics, Examiner.com, Will this recession lead to World War III?, February 26, 2009, http://www.examiner.com/republican-in-baltimore/will-this-recession-lead-to-world-war-iii, MS)
One of the causes of World War I
AND
is averted. However sometimes history repeats itself.
US commitment to democracy assistance in Yemen will dry up the AQAP recruitment pool – this is key to prevent attacks on the US
Green 11 (Daniel, Soref fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, focusing on Yemen, al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency, and stability operations, “The American Moment in Yemen,” Fikra Forum, April 18, http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/.)
If the United States adopts a new approach
AND
which to launch attacks against the United States.
Now is a key opportunity for the US to win the hearts and minds of the Yemeni people
Green 11 (Daniel, Soref fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, focusing on Yemen, al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency, and stability operations, “The American Moment in Yemen,” Fikra Forum, April 18, http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/.)
It is becoming increasingly clear that the departure
AND
States as well as strengthened support for AQAP.
1AC – Adv _: Yemen Instability
Continued Yemeni instability causes Saudi Arabia-Iran proxy wars
Bipartisan Policy Center 2011
Project Co-Chairs: Ambassador Paula Dobriansky, former Undersecretary of State
Admiral (Ret.) Gregory Johnson, former Commander, U.S. Naval Forces, Europe
Fragility and Extremism in Yemen, Bipartisan Policy Center, January 2011 pg 3
Were the situation to deteriorate further, and
AND
weaknesses and the state’s resultant lack of legitimacy.
That causes nuclear war
United Press International 09 (“Saudi-Yemen conflict sharpens region's rivalries” http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2009/12/01/Saudi-Yemen-conflict-sharpens-regions-rivalries/UPI-23441259705297/) BAL
If the U.S. initiative to
AND
in Yemen gets worse and drags in others.
US governance assistance for municipalities and civil society groups solves
Greenfield 10
[Danya, program officer with the Middle East and North Africa division at the Center for International Private Enterprise, and travels frequently to Yemen, the Gulf, and throughout the region.| January 14, 2010, Sustainable Development Is Possible in Yemen, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2010/01/sustainable_development_yemen.html]
U.S. policy should focus on
AND
their experience in Iraq working with tribal groups.
US push for democratic reforms in Yemen prevents all impacts from instability, including secession
Makovsky, Misztal, and Ruhe 11 (Michael Makovsky, Blaise Misztal, and Jonathan Ruhe, foreign policy director, associate director, and policy analyst at the Bipartisan Policy Center, March 31,2011, “Spring Trap”, http://www.tnr.com/article/86043/yemen-tunisia-egypt-arab-uprising?page=0,0) NJS
Given Yemen’s history of internal conflict, the
AND
impoverished population could face a major humanitarian disaster.
The United States has competing interests of
AND
interests are not compromised in the ensuing transition.
Unlike in Afghanistan, we cannot be
AND
, it has a chance of remaining Yemen.
1AC – Adv _: Leadership
Conflict over Yemen also causes the loss of US Leadership—Allowing AQAP to fill the gap.
SSI 11 (strategic studies institute, The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College publishes national security and strategic research and analysis which serves to influence policy debate and bridge the gap between Military and Academia, “The conflict in Yemen and US National Security” http://www.defencetalk.com/the-conflicts-in-yemen-and-us-national-security-32049/) BAL
The difficulties associated with managing Yemen policy should
AND
before the subject of intervention even arises.
Soft power on terrorism is key to U.S Leadership
Hammond 11 (Andrew, Journalist for The National Journal, “A Surge in soft power can repair the US’s image”, http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/comment/a-surge-in-soft-power-can-repair-the-uss-image) BAL
The dramatic news about Osama bin Laden's death
AND
of troops in Afghanistan within the next several years
Retreat from hegemony leads to a collapse of the system and all-out war across the globe
Ferguson 04, Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution & Professor, History, School of Business, New York University and Stanford University,
Niall, September-October(“A World Without Power” – Foreign Policy) http://www.hoover.org/publications/digest/3009996.html
So what is left? Waning empires.
AND
a not-so-new world disorder.
US commitment to democratic reform in the wake of the Arab Spring is key to bolster its international democratic leadership
Zarate and Gordon 11 ( Juan, Senior Adviser @ CSIS and the former Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism, and David, Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project, The Battle for Reform with al-Qaeda, http://www.twq.com/11summer/docs/11summer_Zarate_Gordon.pdf, JOB)
Admittedly, in many quarters, the United
AND
accelerate the defeat of AQAM and its ideology.
